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000
FXUS63 KIWX 291503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RAPID DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SOUTH OF WMFNTL BNDRY POSITIONED FM
CNTRL IL ESEWD THROUGH SRN IN AND AIDING RECENT NWD DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALG A KAAA TO KIND LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
GIVEN SAT DEPICTION OF LARGE ACCAS PLUME IN THIS SAME AREA XPC
ADDNL DVLPMNT COMMENSURATE W/CONTD SWD DESTABILIZATION AND EWD
OVERSPREAD OF LLJ CORE CURRENTLY ALIGNED THROUGH CNTRL IL. THUS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND POPS EWD A BIT MORE AND NOTABLY ADJUST
WRN AREAS HIGHER. OTRWS LL MSTR FLUX IS CONSIDERABLE W/345K NOTED
ON H85 SFC AND MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DVLP IN NW AREAS
AFT 18Z. WILL CONT TO MONITOR BUT EARLY AFTN UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 291503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RAPID DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SOUTH OF WMFNTL BNDRY POSITIONED FM
CNTRL IL ESEWD THROUGH SRN IN AND AIDING RECENT NWD DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALG A KAAA TO KIND LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
GIVEN SAT DEPICTION OF LARGE ACCAS PLUME IN THIS SAME AREA XPC
ADDNL DVLPMNT COMMENSURATE W/CONTD SWD DESTABILIZATION AND EWD
OVERSPREAD OF LLJ CORE CURRENTLY ALIGNED THROUGH CNTRL IL. THUS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND POPS EWD A BIT MORE AND NOTABLY ADJUST
WRN AREAS HIGHER. OTRWS LL MSTR FLUX IS CONSIDERABLE W/345K NOTED
ON H85 SFC AND MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DVLP IN NW AREAS
AFT 18Z. WILL CONT TO MONITOR BUT EARLY AFTN UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 291503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RAPID DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SOUTH OF WMFNTL BNDRY POSITIONED FM
CNTRL IL ESEWD THROUGH SRN IN AND AIDING RECENT NWD DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALG A KAAA TO KIND LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
GIVEN SAT DEPICTION OF LARGE ACCAS PLUME IN THIS SAME AREA XPC
ADDNL DVLPMNT COMMENSURATE W/CONTD SWD DESTABILIZATION AND EWD
OVERSPREAD OF LLJ CORE CURRENTLY ALIGNED THROUGH CNTRL IL. THUS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND POPS EWD A BIT MORE AND NOTABLY ADJUST
WRN AREAS HIGHER. OTRWS LL MSTR FLUX IS CONSIDERABLE W/345K NOTED
ON H85 SFC AND MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DVLP IN NW AREAS
AFT 18Z. WILL CONT TO MONITOR BUT EARLY AFTN UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 291503
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1103 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RAPID DESTABILIZATION ONGOING SOUTH OF WMFNTL BNDRY POSITIONED FM
CNTRL IL ESEWD THROUGH SRN IN AND AIDING RECENT NWD DVLPMNT OF
SHRA/EMBEDDED THUNDER ALG A KAAA TO KIND LINE LATE THIS MORNING.
GIVEN SAT DEPICTION OF LARGE ACCAS PLUME IN THIS SAME AREA XPC
ADDNL DVLPMNT COMMENSURATE W/CONTD SWD DESTABILIZATION AND EWD
OVERSPREAD OF LLJ CORE CURRENTLY ALIGNED THROUGH CNTRL IL. THUS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXPAND POPS EWD A BIT MORE AND NOTABLY ADJUST
WRN AREAS HIGHER. OTRWS LL MSTR FLUX IS CONSIDERABLE W/345K NOTED
ON H85 SFC AND MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN DVLP IN NW AREAS
AFT 18Z. WILL CONT TO MONITOR BUT EARLY AFTN UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIND 291412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 291412
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1012 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 291405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONT ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 14Z...WITH A MUCH MORE HUMID AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ALREADY INTO THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY. TEMPS WERE IN THE 70S THIS
MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS ENCOMPASSING A GOOD PORTION OF THE
AREA.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS FORECAST IS IN
EXCELLENT SHAPE. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
CAPTURES THIS WELL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN GREATER SUPPLY. BUMPED POPS
DOWN A SMIDGE OVER FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT. WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT AND SHEAR
EXPECTED...CONVECTION WILL BE IN A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY IMPACTS.

BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE BOARD. ZONE AND
GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 291033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 291033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 291033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 291033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 291200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
17Z-04Z WITH A LULL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WILL JUST GO WITH VCTS AND BROKEN DIURNAL VFR
CU...ALTHOUGH MVFR AND WORSE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UP ENOUGH...IN ADDITION TO THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...TO KEEP
FOG FROM FORMING THIS MORNING OR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290943
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290943
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290943
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290943
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH BASED/VFR ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KSBN AS
INITIAL 850 MB THETA-E PUSH LIFT THROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP
KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTN. SHORTWAVE OPENING
NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY SFC WARM
FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN INDIANA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290911
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
511 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 290911
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
511 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 290911
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
511 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 290911
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
511 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OPEN NORTHEAST INTO IA/SRN MN/WI
BY LATER TODAY-TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST FLOW RAMP UP IN ADVANCE OF
ATTENDANT WEAK SFC REFLECTION/TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NE MIX OF SFC
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT INTO MAINLY IN/MI ZONES BY LATER
TODAY-TONIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED
WITH LEADING WAA ARM CLIP OUR NW IN/SW LOWER MI COUNTIES THIS
MORNING. KEPT POPS LOW (15-25%) AS MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TAKES PLACE WELL NNW OF THE LOCAL AREA.
STABLE/SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ON WNW PERIPHERY OF LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
OTHERWISE...WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUD CANOPY AND SE LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORIES LIKELY KEEPING HIGHS IN CHECK (UPPER 70S TO MID
80S).

CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR AS HEIGHT
FALLS BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD WARM FRONT AND WHAT SHOULD BE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG IT. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS/LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS AS PWATS
APPROACH 2". CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/CHANCES DIMINISH TONIGHT BEHIND
PRIMARY THETA-E SURGE...WITH MOISTURE CHANNEL/SFC TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL WAVE REMAINING WEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH 12Z SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 509 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

RELUCTANT TO MAKE SIG CHANGES IN LIGHT OF MISSED KILX 00UTC RAOB AND
NAM SPACICITY WRT PWAT/FGEN/DIV FIELDS...INSTEAD FAVORING
CONSISTENCY WITH STRONG NOD TO A CONCEPTUAL FOCUSED FCST. DEEP GOMEX
FEED WITH MONSOONAL TAP AS WESTERN KS VORTEX LIFTS/OPENS NEWD INTO
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD AFFORD WIDE PWAT STREAM
OF NEAR 2 INCHES FROM OZARKS NEWD THROUGH CWA INTO MI THUMB.
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID STILL
AFFORDS 20-40M/12 HR TO CWA. RICH THETA-E PLUME AFFORDING TALL/THIN
CAPE PROFILES AMID DEEP PARALLEL FLOW PROFILE WITH MBE VELOCITIES
TYPICALLY AOB 8 KTS STILL RAISES FLAG FOR HEAVY RAFL POTENTIAL
SAT/SAT NIGHT DESPITE MEAGER MID RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS/QPF.
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WITH LLJ FEATURE TO TRACK UP OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SAT NIGHT MAY ALSO FACTOR INTO MCS MAINTENANCE AS WELL.
ADDITIONAL INJECTION OF OVERTAKING NORTHERN STREAM PRESENTLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH NERN MT MAY ALSO FOSTER REGENERATIVE CONVECTION.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING/REPETITIVE TRACK COMPLEXES
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALBEIT QUITE NEBULOUS IN ANY SPATIAL/TEMPORAL
DETAIL AND ANY FURTHER STRESS THAN HWO/HVY RAFL MENTION WOULD BE
PREMATURE. REMOVED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALL/LYSIS AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING LENDING NO APPRECIABLE FOCUS.
REMAINING CONCERN LIES WITH MONDAY AS SEVERE WX POTENTIAL APPEARING
LESS ATTRACTIVE WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE LIFTOUT THROUGH BROAD WRN
CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ENERGY LIFTS WELL NW OF CWA IN LIGHT
OF DEEP NEGATIVE TROF AXIS TILTING IN DEFERENCE TO DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING FOSTERED BY STRENGTH OF SERN STATES SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WILL
SIDE WITH CONSISTENCY BUT FOCUS HIEST POPS NWRN CWA WITH GREATER
GRADIENT TO MID RANGE CHANCE POPS EAST. BY TUESDAY EVE EXPECT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY AND BEST KINEMATICS
RACING WELL NEWD INTO ONT/QUE AND AGAIN SIDE WITH NO SENSIBLE WX FOR
REMAINDER OF FCST. GRADUAL MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND STARTING MID
WEEK AMID GRADUAL HEIGHT REBOUND SURFACE/ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 290827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 290712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 290712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 290712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 290712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A RETURN TO HUMID AIR. ANOTHER FRONT
ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING RAIN FROM THURSDAY EVENING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT AND AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVE INTO THE AREA.

POPS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK SO DON/T
SEE THE NEED FOR ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS. WENT HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE UPPER ENERGY.

MAV MOS LOOKS A BIT WARM SOME LOCATIONS GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
EXPECTED SCATTERED CONVECTION. WILL CUT IT WHERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND CAN BE USED.

TONIGHT THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE. THUS CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL ONLY GO CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE BRINGING IN FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...WITH SOME LOWERING OF
POPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH.
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO REMAIN A THREAT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS FORCING DIMINISHES BETWEEN SYSTEMS. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORIES.

FOR TEMPERATURES...A MODEL BLEND GENERALLY LOOKS BEST FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR HIGHS...MAV MOS LOOKS TOO WARM SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MOST PLACES GIVEN CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION. CUT MAV AS NEEDED
BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 290708
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 290708
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 290708
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290708
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

EXTENDED MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETURNING NORTH LATE
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH. WITH THE FRONT IN
THE AREA AND UPPER WAVES ADVERTISED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY AND MID WEEK IN OTHERWISE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK GOOD THROUGH THURSDAY PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND.

WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...90S PER BLEND FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 80S LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290453 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1253 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290453 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1253 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 290453 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1253 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 290453 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1253 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 290450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMIED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 290450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMIED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 290450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMIED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. REMNANTS OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
WILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH BASED/VFR SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO KSBN
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING AT KSBN TIMIED WITH INITIAL 850 MB
THETA-E PUSH. DRIER LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FARTHER REMOVED FROM
WEAK LLJ SUPPORT SHOULD HELP KEEP KFWA MAINLY DRY THROUGH MID AFTN.
SHORTWAVE OPENING NORTHEAST TOWARD IA/SRN MN WILL ALLOW PRIMARY
SFC WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT TO MIX NORTH INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH IT...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION AT THIS
FCST RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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000
FXUS63 KIND 290415
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT KBMG AND KHUF.
ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ESPECIALLY AT KHUF AND KLAF.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS KENTUCKY AND ILLINOIS WILL BEGIN MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  EXPECT MOSTLY
SCATTERED CU WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS.

AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING RESULTING IN
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER
FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KHUF AND KLAF. ELSEWHERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8 TO 10
KNOTS FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JH

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290227
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL BASE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT
MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KHUF AND KBMG AS DEWPOINTS RISE.
THERE WAS NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING AT
KLAF AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KLAF AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO MENTION VCTS THIS FAR OUT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH OF 8 TO 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 290149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL BASE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT
MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KHUF AND KBMG AS DEWPOINTS RISE.
THERE WAS NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING AT
KLAF AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KLAF AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO MENTION VCTS THIS FAR OUT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH OF 8 TO 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 290149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL BASE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT
MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KHUF AND KBMG AS DEWPOINTS RISE.
THERE WAS NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING AT
KLAF AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KLAF AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO MENTION VCTS THIS FAR OUT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH OF 8 TO 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 290149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL BASE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT
MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KHUF AND KBMG AS DEWPOINTS RISE.
THERE WAS NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING AT
KLAF AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KLAF AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO MENTION VCTS THIS FAR OUT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH OF 8 TO 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290149
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 949 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS ESSENTIALLY
NIL...DECAYING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
MAKE THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING
COMPLETELY...SO WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP TIL 06Z ACROSS THE
WEST. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO MIN
TEMPS...MAINLY UPWARD...BASED ON LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
AND DEWPOINT TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL BASE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT
MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KHUF AND KBMG AS DEWPOINTS RISE.
THERE WAS NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING AT
KLAF AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KLAF AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO MENTION VCTS THIS FAR OUT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH OF 8 TO 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 282321
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
721 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MOISTURE ADVECTION UPSTREAM AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS
SPAWNED A SMALL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT HANDLED
WELL BY HIRES GUIDANCE. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD GET INTO KSBN LATER THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND LOSS OF ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OF 20KTS IS FOCUSED
INTO NW INDIANA AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME PCPN TO MAKE IT. FOR NOW
WILL ADD A VCTS BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FURTHER RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. KFWA LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITHIN DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR SO VFR PLANNED THERE. VFR FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE TOO
LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION NOW IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF TAF.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 282321
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
721 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESECIALLY BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM AND MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING ALONG THETA E SURGE AND NOSE OF WEAK 20 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE. THETA E ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NOSE OF THIS WEAK LLJ FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
DRY FLOW TO HELP ERODE SOME OF THIS CONVECTION BUT CONCERN SOME
ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA COULD RIDE WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CWA. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW TO A LINE ROUGHLY WEST OF LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE
UPTICK IN POPS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MOISTURE ADVECTION UPSTREAM AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE HAS
SPAWNED A SMALL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT HANDLED
WELL BY HIRES GUIDANCE. EXTRAPOLATION SUGGEST SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD GET INTO KSBN LATER THIS EVENING BUT IT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND LOSS OF ANY CONTRIBUTION FROM
DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW LEVEL JET OF 20KTS IS FOCUSED
INTO NW INDIANA AND THIS MAY ALLOW SOME PCPN TO MAKE IT. FOR NOW
WILL ADD A VCTS BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY FURTHER RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW
HOURS AS WE MONITOR TRENDS WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. KFWA LOOKS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST WITHIN DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR SO VFR PLANNED THERE. VFR FRIDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE TOO
LOW FOR ANY POINT MENTION NOW IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF TAF.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LASHLEY
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 282313
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL BASE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT
MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KHUF AND KBMG AS DEWPOINTS RISE.
THERE WAS NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING AT
KLAF AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KLAF AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO MENTION VCTS THIS FAR OUT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH OF 8 TO 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 282313
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HAVE CONFINED 15 POP TO THE FAR SW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING AS
OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION NEAR EVANSVILLE APPROACHES KNOX COUNTY.
THIS SHOULD ONLY BE A THREAT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS HOWEVER
BEFORE LOSS OF HEATING ENDS THE THUNDER THREAT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL BASE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT
MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KHUF AND KBMG AS DEWPOINTS RISE.
THERE WAS NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING AT
KLAF AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KLAF AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO MENTION VCTS THIS FAR OUT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH OF 8 TO 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/NIELD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 282259
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL BASE CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ONLY EXPECT MAINLY SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS HINT AT
MVFR FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AT KHUF AND KBMG AS DEWPOINTS RISE.
THERE WAS NO FOG LAST NIGHT AND WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE
STRONGER WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.

A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OCCURRING AT
KLAF AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS AT KLAF AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW ELSEWHERE TO MENTION VCTS THIS FAR OUT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTH OF 8 TO 10 KNOTS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 282026
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 282026
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 282026
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 282026
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281934
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
334 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESECIALLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SFC RIDGE DRAPED THROUGH THE ERN LAKES THIS AFTN WILL GIVE WAY TO
LOW PRES ADVG NEWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. AT THE SFC OLD FNTL BNDRY
DRAPED THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY WILL MIX RAPIDLY NWD ON FRI AS
PARENT SW TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO WRN WI BY EVENING.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SIMILAR ALOFT YET GENERALLY SLWR W/DEEMED
ADEQUATE LL MSTR FLUX AND HAVE DAMPENED BOTH POP/WX EXTENT DURING
THE DAY AS MOST FVRBL THETA-E SURGE ALG NOSE OF NWD INTENSIFYING LLJ
DVLPS TWD 00Z. OTRWS TEMPS WILL MODERATE CONSIDERABLY VS THIS AFTN
YET KEPT W/A SPLIT BASED MOS BLEND IN LIGHT OF COPIOUS MID-HIGH CLD
SHIELD UPSTREAM RETARDING A MORE SIG DIURNAL AND SUSPECT THIS MAY BE
THE CASE HERE ON FRI ESP W/SFC TRAJECTORIES REMAINING MORE SELY
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM ARE HEAVY RAIN THIS WEEKEND
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK...

QUITE AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE CWA...

THE FIRST SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA DEVELOPS OVER
WI/MN/IA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS DEEPENING THE EXISTING
500MB TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE LOW WILL REACH
LAKE HURON AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
LOWER MI. THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850-500MB QVECTOR
CONVERGENCE FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI/EASTERN UPPER MI.
HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC PUMPING
MOISTURE/WARMER AIR FROM THE GULF INTO THE REGION THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLS OVER
ILLINOIS/LOWER MI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SAT NIGHT. PWATS OVER THE
CWA INCREASE TO 1.5 TO 2 INCHES AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT GOING HIGH POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. STILL FEELING CONFIDENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN GIVEN WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS OF 12-14KFT AND ROUGHLY
FRONT PARALLEL FLOW. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
EITHER...THOUGH IT HAS INCREASED FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS TO ROUGHLY
15 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THUNDER IN FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...DEWPOINTS FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S...IT WILL BE QUITE HUMID.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DWINDLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NW TO SE AS A
RIDGE ALOFT FILTERS INTO THE AREA FOR A BRIEF TIME.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...WHEN A SLIGHTLY
DEEPER AND MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE MN/WI/IA
AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING FIRMLY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SITUATED IN THE MID
WEST STATES MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EASILY TRANSPORTED INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. PWATS MONDAY GENERALLY BUMP UP TOWARDS 1.5-1.8 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE IN/SOUTHERN MI/WESTERN OH REGION. THE PATH OF THE
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/UL TROUGH IS IMPACTED BY THE EXITING SURFACE
HIGH/RIDGE HOWEVER...MOVING IT FURTHER NORTH THAN THIS WEEKENDS LOW
TRACK. IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WI/MN/IA AREA MONDAY
MORNING...INTO UPPER MI MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND JAMES BAY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALL PERTURBATIONS. AT THE SURFACE...WE DEAL WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WHETHER OR NOT SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPS
IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING SYSTEM WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND WHETHER OR NOT THE HIGHER INSTABILITY/SHEAR MATERIALIZES.
MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE
FRONT INTO IL/LAKE MI BY 18Z MON. THE ECMWF IS A BIT
SLOWER...BRINGING IT INTO THE SAME AREA BY 00Z TUE. IF THE FRONT
ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...THINK SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE.
GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY OF AROUND 1500-2500
J/KG. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE HIGHER SHEAR VALUES
FORECASTED YESTERDAY...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 30-35 KNOTS. 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES REACH AROUND 150-170 M2/S2...SO WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. IF INSTABILITY IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST WHEN
SHEAR IS AT A MAXIMUM AND FRONT IS APPROACHING WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SUPERCELLS DEVELOP.

MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE MID-LATTER
PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST STILL
IN PLACE...THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR BUSY WEATHER MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT STALLS OUT. GFS/ECWMF DISAGREE WITH THE LOCATION OF THE
STALLED FRONT...AND HENCE THE PRECIPITATION. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT
OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY BRUSHING
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/CHC POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING INTO
THE AREA. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE AREA. KEPT CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THE PD W/GRADIENT FLW BLO 10KTS.
WMFNTL BNDRY XPCD TO MIX QUICKLY NWD ON FRI AS POTENT PV ANOMALY
ACRS THE PLAINS EJECTS NEWD THROUGH MN IN THE AFTN. WHILE THIS TAF
FCST PD IS XPCD TO REMAIN DRY...INCREASING CHCS FOR TSRA AND
ASSOCD/MVFR CONDS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS LT FRI AFTN WHICH WILL
BE ADDRESSED IN LTR ISSUANCES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281931
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281931
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281931
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281931
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
RETURNS...PLACING CENTRAL INDIANA BACK INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS
WITH MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

PLEASANT AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FEELING
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S...BUT MOST AREAS CONTINUED TO ENJOY
A BREAK FROM THE MUGGY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND AIDED
BY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. AXIS OF DEEPER PRECIP WATER VALUES REMAINS
ACROSS TE LOWER WABASH VALLEY...AND COULD SERVE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. STORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IOWA NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
REMNANT CLOUD DEBRIS HOWEVER MAY OVERSPREAD NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPS...CONSMOS LOOKED REASONABLE WITH ALL GUIDANCE CLOSE. EXPECT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
RETURNS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AND BRING AN END
TO OUR BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS. THE BOUNDARY...ALONG
WITH THE INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL SERVE AS THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES INITIALLY THEN
SPREADING NORTHEAST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AS OF LATE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION.

MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS SOLID IN BRINGING A WAVE ALOFT INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. A
PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U S...SETTING THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS AND PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2
INCHES...STORMS WILL AGAIN BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING ECHOES AS WELL. BL SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES REMAIN LOW IN
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS...WITH GENERALLY DISORGANIZED AND CHAOTIC
STORMS LARGELY REMAINING SUBSEVERE. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOCUSED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST INTO QUEBEC WITH THE UPPER WAVE SUNDAY...THE
RIDGE ALOFT WILL FLATTEN A BIT...RESULTING IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
PLUME SHIFTING SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. THAT COMBINED WITH
SUBTLE SURFACE RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO LESS
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
SCATTERED POPS REMAIN WARRANTED HOWEVER AS MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE AIRMASS FOR CONVECTION TO FEED OFF OF ALONG WITH
ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS SATURDAY.

TEMPS...GENERALLY PREFERRED THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS FRIDAY...
THEN UNDERCUT MOS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PRECIP. LOWS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH THE
RESUMPTION OF THE HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A MOSTLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
AS ONE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN IT
APPEARS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...BRINGING DRIER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH WED AND THU.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281715
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD.

SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-050 FEET MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BY
MID AFTERNOON. BKN AREAS OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 080 ARE
STILL EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME THE REST OF TODAY. NE WINDS LESS
THAN 8 KT EARLY..BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND THEN SOUTHERLY
FRIDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.



&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 281454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH IT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 281454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH IT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 281454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH IT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 281454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WILL PASS THROUGH TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY WITH IT. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHWEST OHIO TO THE
MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 281431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
DON/T SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS LASTING MUCH
LONGER...SO NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THESE IN THE FORECAST. WILL
WATCH TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY MUCH AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 030-035 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS LEVEL NOT
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-035 MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
DON/T SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS LASTING MUCH
LONGER...SO NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THESE IN THE FORECAST. WILL
WATCH TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY MUCH AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 030-035 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS LEVEL NOT
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-035 MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
DON/T SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS LASTING MUCH
LONGER...SO NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THESE IN THE FORECAST. WILL
WATCH TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY MUCH AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 030-035 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS LEVEL NOT
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-035 MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
DON/T SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS LASTING MUCH
LONGER...SO NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THESE IN THE FORECAST. WILL
WATCH TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY MUCH AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 030-035 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS LEVEL NOT
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-035 MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
DON/T SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS LASTING MUCH
LONGER...SO NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THESE IN THE FORECAST. WILL
WATCH TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY MUCH AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 030-035 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS LEVEL NOT
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-035 MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAD DRIFTED INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST SO FAR
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WAS GETTING A BREAK FROM
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS OF THE LAST WEEK OR SO WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. WITH LIGHT E/NE FLOW...
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AS OF 1330Z.

WHILE THE MAIN BOUNDARY IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT ALONG WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS
INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. HAVE INTRODUCED A LOW CHANCE POP OVER
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER WABASH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH PERHAPS
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS REMNANT CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM THE DYING CONVECTION OVER IOWA DRIFTS INTO THE AREA.
FOR THOSE REASONS..BUMPED EXPECTED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
DON/T SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS LASTING MUCH
LONGER...SO NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THESE IN THE FORECAST. WILL
WATCH TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY MUCH AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 030-035 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS LEVEL NOT
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-035 MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS
FOUND BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS...LINGERING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING SOME LESS HUMID AIR TO ARRIVE IN THE STATE. DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AS A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TODAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
CAP. THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON CU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LIMITED CAPE SHOULD PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. IF ANY AREA
DOES SEE STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND
HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE...BUT WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
DON/T SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS LASTING MUCH
LONGER...SO NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THESE IN THE FORECAST. WILL
WATCH TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY MUCH AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 030-035 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS LEVEL NOT
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-035 MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS
FOUND BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS...LINGERING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING SOME LESS HUMID AIR TO ARRIVE IN THE STATE. DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AS A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TODAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
CAP. THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON CU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LIMITED CAPE SHOULD PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. IF ANY AREA
DOES SEE STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND
HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE...BUT WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPROACHING WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.
DON/T SEE TOO MUCH SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS LASTING MUCH
LONGER...SO NOT PLANNING ON MENTIONING THESE IN THE FORECAST. WILL
WATCH TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME. APPEARS THAT SHOWERS ARE NOT
RESTRICTING VISIBILITY MUCH AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING STRIKES
WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS QUITE LOW.

OTHERWISE...SOME CLOUD COVER AROUND 030-035 OVER THE WEST CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS LEVEL NOT
EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SOME
DIURNAL CLOUDS BASED 030-035 MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS
OF HIGHER LAYERED CLOUDS ABOVE 050 FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280929
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
529 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 280929
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
529 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 528 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY MVFR TO LOW VFR STRATUS HAD DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE
TERMINALS AS OF 09Z UNDER A FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...THANKS TO SOME ADDED MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON/ERIE
IN WEAK NNE FLOW. SATELLITE/HRRR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS CLOUD
DECK MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SW INTO FWA THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING
OUT THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY ADVECTION/DAYTIME HEATING. VFR
OTHERWISE AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY VEER MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 280836
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 280836
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 280836
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 280836
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
436 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY DRY/FAIR WX EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH STABLE/LESS
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING ESE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES. MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A ROCKIES PV ANOMALY THAT WILL SLOWLY EJECT EAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN AREA OF DEEPER
MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS WNW OF THE FA BY
TONIGHT...WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO SURVIVE INTO FAR NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT IN WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA
REGIME ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF DEEPENING SW FLOW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHER
LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE PER WELL TRACKED RUN TO RUN FEATURES. CONTINUED
TO FOCUS ON GREATEST POP/QPF POTENTIAL SAT-SUN. CONTINUE TO CARVE
OUT LESSENED CHANCES ON FRI GIVEN SEQUESTER OF HIGH THETA-E RIBBON
WELL S-W OF REGION...INITIALLY FROM EASTERN NE TO EASTERN KY EARLY
FRI. BETTER KINEMATIC PROFILE ATOP NEWD RETREATING WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPEARS HELD WELL UPSTREAM WITH ONLY FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA
ON SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WORTHY OF MID RANGE POPS...TAPERING DRY INTO
NORTHWESTERN OH. MINIMIZED THUNDER MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN
INITIAL POOR MUCAPE PROFILES. POPS RAMP INTO SATURDAY AS DEEP
CENTRAL ROCKIES CYCLONE WITH STRONG MONSOONAL MOISTURE DRAW LIFTS
OUT THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY/WESTERN UPPER GREAT LAKES...FOLLOWED
BY OVERTAKING NORTHERN TIER CONUS SHORTWAVE. SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALL CENTROID /ON ORDER OF
20-40M/12 HRS/ ALONG WITH FRONTAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO
READILY FOSTER DEEP WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AMID MODEST SBCAPE IN
1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. HIGH/NEAR 99TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS REGION SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CONTINUAL
MOISTURE RESUPPLY PER DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST PROFILE.
MULTIPLE/REPETITIVE CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS POSSIBLE WITH DEEP 12-14KFT
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WARRANT CONTINUED MENTION OF FLOODING/HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN HWO AS WELL AS INTRODUCING TSRA HEAVY RAINFALL
ATTRIBUTE MENTION TO NDFD WEATHER.  SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS/BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO
SOUTHEAST CWA ON DY4...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS WITH NW-SE
GRADIENT. PRIOR DISCUSSION ADDRESSED POTENTIAL SEVERE FOR MONDAY AND
CONCUR WITH HEIGHTENED CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT DY5/MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
THROUGH DEVELOPING BROAD LONGWAVE TROF THAT SPREADS THROUGHOUT
WESTERN CANADA/NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS CONUS AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FLATTENS/RETREATS SOUTHWARD. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL/PROBLEMATIC BUT
APPEARS DECENT AT THIS MOMENT AS SHORTWAVE ARTICULATES THROUGH
WI/NORTHERN IL TO WESTERN LOWER PENINSULA AT PEAK HEATING...LEAVING
CWA POISED IN STRONG RIGHT/REAR UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT WITH STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW AFFORDING 40-50 KTS DEEP/0-6KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES.
COLD POOL CONGEALMENT INTO ORGANIZED LINEAR SEGMENTS PER PARALLEL
SHEAR/STORM MOTION VECTORING SUGGESTS HEIGHTENED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL. GRADUAL REBUILD OF HEIGHTS SURFACE/ALOFT LENDS STRONG
FAVOR TO PRIOR ESCHEWAL OF CONSENSUS POPS INTO MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 280813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS
FOUND BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS...LINGERING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING SOME LESS HUMID AIR TO ARRIVE IN THE STATE. DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AS A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TODAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
CAP. THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON CU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LIMITED CAPE SHOULD PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. IF ANY AREA
DOES SEE STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND
HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE...BUT WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO AT LEAST KIND AND KLAF
TAFS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT OF MVFR FOG THERE.  DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY ALLOW A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG THERE.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN
ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 280813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS
FOUND BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS...LINGERING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING SOME LESS HUMID AIR TO ARRIVE IN THE STATE. DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AS A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TODAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
CAP. THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON CU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LIMITED CAPE SHOULD PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. IF ANY AREA
DOES SEE STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND
HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE...BUT WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO AT LEAST KIND AND KLAF
TAFS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT OF MVFR FOG THERE.  DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY ALLOW A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG THERE.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN
ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 280813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS
FOUND BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS...LINGERING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING SOME LESS HUMID AIR TO ARRIVE IN THE STATE. DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AS A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TODAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
CAP. THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON CU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LIMITED CAPE SHOULD PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. IF ANY AREA
DOES SEE STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND
HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE...BUT WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO AT LEAST KIND AND KLAF
TAFS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT OF MVFR FOG THERE.  DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY ALLOW A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG THERE.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN
ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 280813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS
FOUND BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS...LINGERING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING SOME LESS HUMID AIR TO ARRIVE IN THE STATE. DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AS A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TODAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
CAP. THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON CU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LIMITED CAPE SHOULD PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. IF ANY AREA
DOES SEE STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND
HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE...BUT WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO AT LEAST KIND AND KLAF
TAFS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT OF MVFR FOG THERE.  DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY ALLOW A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG THERE.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN
ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH/JAS

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000
FXUS63 KIND 280648
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE MORE WARM AND
SUMMER WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK AS
WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SEVERAL
MORE UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS
FOUND BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS...LINGERING NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THIS WAS
ALLOWING SOME LESS HUMID AIR TO ARRIVE IN THE STATE. DEW POINTS
HAVE FALLEN TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS AS A DRY FORECAST IS
EXPECTED TODAY. GFS AND NAM SHOW UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INDIANA TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...WITH A BIT OF MID LEVEL
CAP. THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW AFTERNOON CU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
LIMITED CAPE SHOULD PREVENT SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. IF ANY AREA
DOES SEE STORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...IT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE
OHIO RIVER NEAR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY.

AS FOR TEMPS...GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY COOLER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND
HIGHS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE...BUT WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. AN ACTIVE
AND HUMID WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO RETURN THIS PERIOD AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS SET TO RETURN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER TO
BEGIN TO PUSH BACK NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS FAIL TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE OR ORGANIZED
LIFT ARRIVING. STILL...ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
PRESENT TO KEEP A LOW CHC POP TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WEST WHERE RETURN MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE FIRST NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

SEVERAL MORE FEATURES COME TOGETHER FOR PRECIP ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. MUCH MORE HUMID AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS RISE
INTO THE UPPER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WINDS. GFS DEPICTS TWO SHORT WAVES
HEADED FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THESE
DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ARRIVING WITH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
WITH MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND A LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALL POINTING TOWARD CONVECTION AND PRECIP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
FAVORABLE CAPE WITH ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS
WILL TREND POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY NIGHT A BROADER UPPER TROUGH THEN BEGINS PUSH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES AND WIELD IT/S
INFLUENCE. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD SATURATION AMID GOOD FORCING. THUS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RAISE POPS ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW
WARM AND MOIST TROPICAL AIR FLOWING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AND AVAILABLE CAPE. THUS WILL
CONTINUE POPS ON BOTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS WILL
WORK WELL ON HIGHS. WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR MOVES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND INTO SOUTHEAST
CANADA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES AFTER THAT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS AWAY. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY EVENTUALLY
STALL OUT NEAR THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AN ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION
THREAT LINGERING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...THINK THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PUSHING OFF WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.
WILL KEEP POPS GOING FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO AT LEAST KIND AND KLAF
TAFS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT OF MVFR FOG THERE.  DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY ALLOW A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG THERE.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN
ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST ON
THURSDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 280450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...AND THE
MID 80S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER LAKES. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AT FWA WHERE MVFR STRATUS/FOG MAY DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CIRRUS CANOPY TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 280434
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO AT LEAST KIND AND KLAF
TAFS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT OF MVFR FOG THERE.  DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY ALLOW A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG THERE.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN
ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280434
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO AT LEAST KIND AND KLAF
TAFS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY THREAT OF MVFR FOG THERE.  DEWPOINTS
WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY ALLOW A PERIOD OF
MVFR FOG THERE.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
CLOUDS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN
ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS LATER
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY EVENING...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME EAST ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 280247 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1047 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPADTE/...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS MAINLY
AT KHUF AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEARBY THERE. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS AT KLAF AND KIND MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY
ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BECOME EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280247 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1047 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPADTE/...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS MAINLY
AT KHUF AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEARBY THERE. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS AT KLAF AND KIND MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY
ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BECOME EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280247 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1047 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPADTE/...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS MAINLY
AT KHUF AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEARBY THERE. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS AT KLAF AND KIND MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY
ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BECOME EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280247 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1047 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280300Z KIND TAF UPADTE/...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS..

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS MAINLY
AT KHUF AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEARBY THERE. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS AT KLAF AND KIND MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY
ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BECOME EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 272324
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
724 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING WEATHER QUIET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AS MVFR BR FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT KFWA. OTHERWISE JUST A BKN-OVC CIRRUS CANOPY WITH NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 272324
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
724 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING WEATHER QUIET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD. EXCEPTION WILL BE
NEAR DAYBREAK AS MVFR BR FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
AT KFWA. OTHERWISE JUST A BKN-OVC CIRRUS CANOPY WITH NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 272258 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS MAINLY
AT KHUF AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEARBY THERE. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS AT KLAF AND KIND MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY
ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BECOME EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 272257
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS MAINLY
AT KHUF AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEARBY THERE. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS AT KLAF AND KIND MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY
ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BECOME EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 272257
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS MAINLY
AT KHUF AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEARBY THERE. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS AT KLAF AND KIND MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY
ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BECOME EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 272257
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS MAINLY
AT KHUF AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEARBY THERE. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS AT KLAF AND KIND MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY
ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BECOME EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 272257
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF KHUF AND
KBMG WHERE MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE THERE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL MENTION VCTS MAINLY
AT KHUF AS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY NEARBY THERE. MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END AFTER 02Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS SPREAD DRIER AIR INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OVERNIGHT
AND DEWPOINTS AT KLAF AND KIND MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE HIGHER AT KHUF AND KBMG WHICH MAY
ALLOW MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

ON THURSDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CU WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE TO OUR WEST.  AN ISOLATED CB MAY SPREAD
INTO WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THURSDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST UP TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
BECOME EAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 272237
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 272237
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 272237
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 272237
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
WORDING TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SATELLITE PRESENTATION. LITTLE TO NO CUMULUS WITH ANY
SORT OF VERTICAL EXTENT IN THE CITY AND NORTHWARD...THUS DO NOT
EXPECT STORMS HERE AS HEATING IS WANING.

ANY ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DIE OFF BY 10 PM IF NOT
EARLIER...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT BEYOND THEN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 272031
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 272031
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 272100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271926
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
326 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING WEATHER QUIET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN
GREAT LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271926
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
326 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...KEEPING WEATHER QUIET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

TRANQUIL WX XPCD THIS PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN LAKES.
N/NERLY LL FLW WILL CONT TO ADVT IN MUCH DRIER AIR W/SFC TDS FALLING
IN THE 50S TONIGHT. WILL TWEAK TEMPS OVERNIGHT A BIT HWVR IN LIGHT
OF UPSTREAM EWD SPILLAGE OF MID/HIGH CLDS. OTRWS PLEASANT WX XPCD TO
CONT ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A 500MB RIDGE EXPANDING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER
LOWER MI AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

MEANWHILE...A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TODAY WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING A SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY...THE CWA REMAINS UNDER THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE FOCUSES ALONG AN AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
AS THE CENTER OF WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER MN/WI/IOWA FRIDAY
MORNING. THINK THE RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 310K SFC AND 1-2K J/KG OF MUCAPE EXPECT
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWER/T STORM DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. BEST FORCING/PER
850-500MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305K/
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE
HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS TIME. KEPT
THUNDERSTORMS IN AS WELL GIVEN DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODELS SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE
FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FAR AS
SEVERE CHANCES THINKING THEY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK 0-6
KM SHEAR...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
WITH PWATS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES...AND CORFIDI VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAT AFT/SAT EVE COULD
SEE FLOODING PROBLEMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA.

SUNDAY NIGHT A BRIEF RIDGE ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION. BY LATE MONDAY MORNING...A MORE POTENT
TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OVER MINNESOTA.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO HUDSON BAY BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 305-310K ARE IN PLACE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING...SO HAVE KEPT THE GOING
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. STORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 30-50 KTS 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. KEPT CONSENSUS
CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING
WITH THE EXITING FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT...AND WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING STRONG...SO
PULLED CONSENSUS SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN
GREAT LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 271900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A ONE DAY RESPITE FROM HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AS A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A TROUGH
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT THE ROCKIES WILL LIFT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
BACK TO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY TO RETURN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AGAIN BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

THE ONE DAY HEAT RESPITE SHOULD ALSO REMAIN RAIN FREE BUT THE
RETURN OF THE FRONT...HEAT AND HUMIDITY FRIDAY ALSO RENEWS THE
DAILY THREAT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THRUST OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND BRING THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR
STORMS...BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH AND HIGHEST THREAT ARRIVES BY NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHETHER STORMS WILL OCCUR AND WHAT PART OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IF ANY.

CUMULUS FIELD OVER INDY AND TO THE NORTH HAS LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT...MUCH MORE LIKE THAT SEEN IN A POST-FRONTAL
SETTING...COMPARED TO THE SHARP EDGED AND TALL CUMULUS TOWERS OF
RECENT DAYS THAT PRODUCED RAIN AND STORMS. LONE CELL DOWN NEAR
LOUISVILLE FIRING OUT OF CLOUD BASES NEAR 3500 FEET COMPARED TO
NEARBY RAGGED BASES AROUND 2000 FEET. LONE CELL NEAR QUINCY AND
LONE SHOWER WEST OF TERRE HAUTE ARE MOVING ESE BOUND ALONG THE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. ALL SAID...
WILL KEEP AN EARLY EVENING RAIN/STORM THREAT WHICH WILL FALL ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I70 AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET.

DEWPOINTS STILL RIDING HIGH IN THE 70S BUT MID AND LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MIN TEMPS NEAR THE CURRENT FORECAST OF LOWER 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH AS IT TAKES A WHILE FOR AIR TO DRY OUT
WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

FORECAST ISSUE IS RETURN OF PRECIPITATION TIMING. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS AND HAVE USED A
BLEND.

HAVE DROPPED RAIN CHANCES IN MANY AREAS THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES TAKES CONTROL. A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID
CLOUD DEBRIS SPILLING OVER UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY FROM SYSTEM
LIFTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MEAN PERIODIC SUNSHINE. THAT
COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER STARTING TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL MEAN MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A NOTICEABLE CHANGE
TO THE AIRMASS...NOT SUBSTANTIAL BUT NOTICEABLE. FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE RETURNING SURFACE FRONT MAY HAVE A SLIGHT
THREAT FOR A SHOWER THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT LIFT AND MOISTURE IS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION AND FURTHER NORTHEAST LIFT OF THE SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY WILL MEAN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS BACK
TOWARDS 70 RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS. THIS STORM
THREAT INCREASES EVEN MORE SATURDAY AS THE ROCKIES SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OF TODAY CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...BOTH MINS AND MAXS WILL DO A SLOW REBOUND
AFTER THURSDAY AND RETURN TO LOWS NOT FAR FROM 70 BY FRIDAY AND
HIGHS BACK NEAR 90. SHOULD SATURDAY BE A RELATIVELY CLOUDY AND
STORMY DAY...THAT MAY KEEP HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 271801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS ONE
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ONLY TO BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...POSSIBLY DEEPER TROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.
ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THIS PATTERN WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 271759
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TODAY AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. THEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 90 ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
RATHER DIFFUSE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH IT THAT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 24. THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING BUT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT END ALL POPS BY 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALSO EXTENDED BACK INTO PORTIONS OF IOWA. WHILE THESE ARE
HEADING EAST THINK THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT...THEN COULD NEED TO
EXPAND POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG...DENSE AT TIMES IN SEVERAL
AREAS. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE FOG. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT LIKELY TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S...IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER
WAS SOMEWHAT LACKING. HOWEVER WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET CU DEVELOPMENT
GOING ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE
AND NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO UPWARDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIETER WITH BOUNDARY JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WINS THE STRUGGLE FROM THE
NORTH...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME VERY
PLEASANT AIR TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OR SO. HAVE
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. FAVORED DRAINAGE AREAS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A BIT MORE (BENTON HARBOR AREA INTO THE LOWER 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

CHALLENGES STILL REVOLVE AROUND POPS GOING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SOME HIR CONFIDENCE IN CARVING OUT GREATER AREA/CONFIDENCE FOR DRY
RESPITE THU/THU NIGHT. SLOWED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE RIDGE
THROUGH CENTRAL TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND LOW AMPLITUDE MID
TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...PENDING CRISTOBAL NORTHWARD
RETREAT INTO MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES. UPSTREAM OF TEMPO BLOCKING
PATTERN EXTREMELY RICH PWAT/THETA-E REGIME THEN POOLS FROM EASTERN
NE INTO ERN KY/ERN TN. STRONG EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES THROUGH
CORN BELT ALONG WITH N-NEWD DRAW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BY INTENSE
INTERMOUNTAIN VORTEX MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD PUSH
UPSTREAM SFC DPS TO MID 70S BY FRI. SOME CONCERN THAT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ASSERTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MAY LEAD TO BEST
THETA-E/STORM TRACK CORRIDOR WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS NORTHEAST LIFT OUT AND DECAY. SIDED WITH HIGHEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/QPF POTENTIAL SAT INTO SUN...AS NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE /ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP PVU ANOMALY NEAR 50N/145W/ RACES INTO
UPPER MIDWEST SAT AND SHUNT MOISTURE BELT AND STRENGTHENED DEEP
SW-WSWLY FLOW. SECOND SHORTWAVE TO LIKELY FOSTER FRONTOGENETIC WAVE
ALONG LATENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR REPETITIVE FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE MESOSCALE
DETAILS STILL MULTIPLE DAYS FROM BEING RESOLVED...WILL STRESS
GENERAL FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO GIVEN STRONG ASSOCIATION TO AN
INGREDIENTS BASED CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH PWAT 2-2.25 INCHES...DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH GTE 12KFT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING GIVEN DEEP
LAYER PARALLEL TO SURFACE BOUNDARY FLOW. CURRENT FALLING LIMB
HYDROGRAPHS OF MAINSTEM RIVERS IN WABASH/MAUMEE BASINS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW HEADWATERS FLOOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAUTION. LESSER POPS DYS 5-7 THOUGH UNABLE TO
EASILY PULL AWAY FROM BLENDED CONSENSUS AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROF WITH
MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS APPEARS TO REMAIN A SEMI PERMANENT FIXTURE
THROUGH NORTHERN TIER CONUS...WELL INTO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 271759
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TODAY AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. THEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 90 ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
RATHER DIFFUSE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH IT THAT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 24. THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING BUT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT END ALL POPS BY 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALSO EXTENDED BACK INTO PORTIONS OF IOWA. WHILE THESE ARE
HEADING EAST THINK THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT...THEN COULD NEED TO
EXPAND POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG...DENSE AT TIMES IN SEVERAL
AREAS. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE FOG. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT LIKELY TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S...IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER
WAS SOMEWHAT LACKING. HOWEVER WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET CU DEVELOPMENT
GOING ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE
AND NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO UPWARDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIETER WITH BOUNDARY JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WINS THE STRUGGLE FROM THE
NORTH...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME VERY
PLEASANT AIR TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OR SO. HAVE
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. FAVORED DRAINAGE AREAS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A BIT MORE (BENTON HARBOR AREA INTO THE LOWER 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

CHALLENGES STILL REVOLVE AROUND POPS GOING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SOME HIR CONFIDENCE IN CARVING OUT GREATER AREA/CONFIDENCE FOR DRY
RESPITE THU/THU NIGHT. SLOWED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE RIDGE
THROUGH CENTRAL TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND LOW AMPLITUDE MID
TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...PENDING CRISTOBAL NORTHWARD
RETREAT INTO MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES. UPSTREAM OF TEMPO BLOCKING
PATTERN EXTREMELY RICH PWAT/THETA-E REGIME THEN POOLS FROM EASTERN
NE INTO ERN KY/ERN TN. STRONG EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES THROUGH
CORN BELT ALONG WITH N-NEWD DRAW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BY INTENSE
INTERMOUNTAIN VORTEX MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD PUSH
UPSTREAM SFC DPS TO MID 70S BY FRI. SOME CONCERN THAT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ASSERTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MAY LEAD TO BEST
THETA-E/STORM TRACK CORRIDOR WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS NORTHEAST LIFT OUT AND DECAY. SIDED WITH HIGHEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/QPF POTENTIAL SAT INTO SUN...AS NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE /ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP PVU ANOMALY NEAR 50N/145W/ RACES INTO
UPPER MIDWEST SAT AND SHUNT MOISTURE BELT AND STRENGTHENED DEEP
SW-WSWLY FLOW. SECOND SHORTWAVE TO LIKELY FOSTER FRONTOGENETIC WAVE
ALONG LATENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR REPETITIVE FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE MESOSCALE
DETAILS STILL MULTIPLE DAYS FROM BEING RESOLVED...WILL STRESS
GENERAL FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO GIVEN STRONG ASSOCIATION TO AN
INGREDIENTS BASED CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH PWAT 2-2.25 INCHES...DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH GTE 12KFT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING GIVEN DEEP
LAYER PARALLEL TO SURFACE BOUNDARY FLOW. CURRENT FALLING LIMB
HYDROGRAPHS OF MAINSTEM RIVERS IN WABASH/MAUMEE BASINS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW HEADWATERS FLOOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAUTION. LESSER POPS DYS 5-7 THOUGH UNABLE TO
EASILY PULL AWAY FROM BLENDED CONSENSUS AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROF WITH
MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS APPEARS TO REMAIN A SEMI PERMANENT FIXTURE
THROUGH NORTHERN TIER CONUS...WELL INTO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 271759
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TODAY AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. THEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 90 ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
RATHER DIFFUSE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH IT THAT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 24. THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING BUT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT END ALL POPS BY 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALSO EXTENDED BACK INTO PORTIONS OF IOWA. WHILE THESE ARE
HEADING EAST THINK THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT...THEN COULD NEED TO
EXPAND POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG...DENSE AT TIMES IN SEVERAL
AREAS. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE FOG. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT LIKELY TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S...IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER
WAS SOMEWHAT LACKING. HOWEVER WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET CU DEVELOPMENT
GOING ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE
AND NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO UPWARDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIETER WITH BOUNDARY JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WINS THE STRUGGLE FROM THE
NORTH...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME VERY
PLEASANT AIR TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OR SO. HAVE
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. FAVORED DRAINAGE AREAS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A BIT MORE (BENTON HARBOR AREA INTO THE LOWER 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

CHALLENGES STILL REVOLVE AROUND POPS GOING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SOME HIR CONFIDENCE IN CARVING OUT GREATER AREA/CONFIDENCE FOR DRY
RESPITE THU/THU NIGHT. SLOWED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE RIDGE
THROUGH CENTRAL TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND LOW AMPLITUDE MID
TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...PENDING CRISTOBAL NORTHWARD
RETREAT INTO MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES. UPSTREAM OF TEMPO BLOCKING
PATTERN EXTREMELY RICH PWAT/THETA-E REGIME THEN POOLS FROM EASTERN
NE INTO ERN KY/ERN TN. STRONG EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES THROUGH
CORN BELT ALONG WITH N-NEWD DRAW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BY INTENSE
INTERMOUNTAIN VORTEX MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD PUSH
UPSTREAM SFC DPS TO MID 70S BY FRI. SOME CONCERN THAT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ASSERTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MAY LEAD TO BEST
THETA-E/STORM TRACK CORRIDOR WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS NORTHEAST LIFT OUT AND DECAY. SIDED WITH HIGHEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/QPF POTENTIAL SAT INTO SUN...AS NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE /ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP PVU ANOMALY NEAR 50N/145W/ RACES INTO
UPPER MIDWEST SAT AND SHUNT MOISTURE BELT AND STRENGTHENED DEEP
SW-WSWLY FLOW. SECOND SHORTWAVE TO LIKELY FOSTER FRONTOGENETIC WAVE
ALONG LATENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR REPETITIVE FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE MESOSCALE
DETAILS STILL MULTIPLE DAYS FROM BEING RESOLVED...WILL STRESS
GENERAL FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO GIVEN STRONG ASSOCIATION TO AN
INGREDIENTS BASED CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH PWAT 2-2.25 INCHES...DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH GTE 12KFT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING GIVEN DEEP
LAYER PARALLEL TO SURFACE BOUNDARY FLOW. CURRENT FALLING LIMB
HYDROGRAPHS OF MAINSTEM RIVERS IN WABASH/MAUMEE BASINS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW HEADWATERS FLOOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAUTION. LESSER POPS DYS 5-7 THOUGH UNABLE TO
EASILY PULL AWAY FROM BLENDED CONSENSUS AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROF WITH
MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS APPEARS TO REMAIN A SEMI PERMANENT FIXTURE
THROUGH NORTHERN TIER CONUS...WELL INTO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 271759
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD TODAY AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT. THEN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO AROUND 90 ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

COOL FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE
RATHER DIFFUSE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE WITH IT THAT
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF ROUTE 24. THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING BUT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL IN THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC
POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH BUT END ALL POPS BY 18Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALSO EXTENDED BACK INTO PORTIONS OF IOWA. WHILE THESE ARE
HEADING EAST THINK THEY SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
TRAVEL ALONG THE FRONT. IF THE FRONT STALLS OUT...THEN COULD NEED TO
EXPAND POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG...DENSE AT TIMES IN SEVERAL
AREAS. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE SHALLOW
NATURE OF THE FOG. FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNRISE BUT SHOULD BURN
OFF QUICKLY AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE TRICKY ESPECIALLY SOUTH WITH
LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE FRONT LIKELY TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...HIGHS COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S...IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE IS REALIZED. UPSTREAM CLOUD COVER
WAS SOMEWHAT LACKING. HOWEVER WON`T TAKE MUCH TO GET CU DEVELOPMENT
GOING ONCE AGAIN THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN. WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE
AND NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO UPWARDS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIETER WITH BOUNDARY JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP THE AREA DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE WINS THE STRUGGLE FROM THE
NORTH...AT LEAST BRIEFLY. LIGHT NE FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME VERY
PLEASANT AIR TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OR SO. HAVE
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE THAN PREVIOUS GRIDS WITH LOWS IN THE MID
50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 SOUTH. FAVORED DRAINAGE AREAS HAVE BEEN LOWERED
A BIT MORE (BENTON HARBOR AREA INTO THE LOWER 50S).

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

CHALLENGES STILL REVOLVE AROUND POPS GOING INTO HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
SOME HIR CONFIDENCE IN CARVING OUT GREATER AREA/CONFIDENCE FOR DRY
RESPITE THU/THU NIGHT. SLOWED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SURFACE RIDGE
THROUGH CENTRAL TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND LOW AMPLITUDE MID
TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...PENDING CRISTOBAL NORTHWARD
RETREAT INTO MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES. UPSTREAM OF TEMPO BLOCKING
PATTERN EXTREMELY RICH PWAT/THETA-E REGIME THEN POOLS FROM EASTERN
NE INTO ERN KY/ERN TN. STRONG EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE PROCESSES THROUGH
CORN BELT ALONG WITH N-NEWD DRAW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE BY INTENSE
INTERMOUNTAIN VORTEX MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD PUSH
UPSTREAM SFC DPS TO MID 70S BY FRI. SOME CONCERN THAT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ASSERTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES MAY LEAD TO BEST
THETA-E/STORM TRACK CORRIDOR WELL NORTHWEST OF CWA ON FRIDAY AS THE
SHORTWAVE BEGINS NORTHEAST LIFT OUT AND DECAY. SIDED WITH HIGHEST
CONVECTIVE CHANCES/QPF POTENTIAL SAT INTO SUN...AS NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE /ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP PVU ANOMALY NEAR 50N/145W/ RACES INTO
UPPER MIDWEST SAT AND SHUNT MOISTURE BELT AND STRENGTHENED DEEP
SW-WSWLY FLOW. SECOND SHORTWAVE TO LIKELY FOSTER FRONTOGENETIC WAVE
ALONG LATENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR REPETITIVE FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE MESOSCALE
DETAILS STILL MULTIPLE DAYS FROM BEING RESOLVED...WILL STRESS
GENERAL FLOODING POTENTIAL IN HWO GIVEN STRONG ASSOCIATION TO AN
INGREDIENTS BASED CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH PWAT 2-2.25 INCHES...DEEP
WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTH GTE 12KFT AND POSSIBLE TRAINING GIVEN DEEP
LAYER PARALLEL TO SURFACE BOUNDARY FLOW. CURRENT FALLING LIMB
HYDROGRAPHS OF MAINSTEM RIVERS IN WABASH/MAUMEE BASINS ALONG WITH
ELEVATED STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LOW HEADWATERS FLOOD
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CAUTION. LESSER POPS DYS 5-7 THOUGH UNABLE TO
EASILY PULL AWAY FROM BLENDED CONSENSUS AS BROAD LONGWAVE TROF WITH
MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS APPEARS TO REMAIN A SEMI PERMANENT FIXTURE
THROUGH NORTHERN TIER CONUS...WELL INTO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD AS HIGH PRES BLDS THROUGH THE ERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 271711
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271711
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271711
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271711
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LAYING DIRECTLY OVER KIND AND THE REST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS SURFACE TEMPS REACH CONVECTIVE
TEMPS OF UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ALONG A KHUF-KIND LINE AND SOUTHWARD. LEFT IN MENTION OF VCTS WITH
CB GROUPS FOR ALL TAF SITES SAVE FOR KLAF AS THIS SITE SHOULD BE FAR
ENOUGH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO NOT BE IMPACTED. ENDED VCTS BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 00-02Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS
TODAY/TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271648
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
MODEL DATA SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
FORM JUST WEST OF THE ILLINOIS STATE LINE. AT THIS TIME...DON/T
THINK IT WILL BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME.

SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KIND/KHUF/KBMG. EXPECTED PROBABILITY/COVERAGE
PRECLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES AROUND 025.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 HAS BEEN EXPANDING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THESE CEILINGS MAY GET INTO
KLAF FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT TOWARDS MIDDAY. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271648
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
MODEL DATA SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
FORM JUST WEST OF THE ILLINOIS STATE LINE. AT THIS TIME...DON/T
THINK IT WILL BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME.

SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KIND/KHUF/KBMG. EXPECTED PROBABILITY/COVERAGE
PRECLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES AROUND 025.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 HAS BEEN EXPANDING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THESE CEILINGS MAY GET INTO
KLAF FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT TOWARDS MIDDAY. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271648
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
MODEL DATA SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
FORM JUST WEST OF THE ILLINOIS STATE LINE. AT THIS TIME...DON/T
THINK IT WILL BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME.

SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KIND/KHUF/KBMG. EXPECTED PROBABILITY/COVERAGE
PRECLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES AROUND 025.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 HAS BEEN EXPANDING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THESE CEILINGS MAY GET INTO
KLAF FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT TOWARDS MIDDAY. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271648
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1248 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AMID A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MORE OF THE SAME IN OUR DAY TODAY
WEATHER...HOT AND MUGGY DAYS WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND WARM AND SULTRY NIGHTS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE HEAT AND RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

WILL BE TRIMMING POPS BACK IN NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATER
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ILL DEFINED BOUNDARY STILL OVER AREA AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS
STILL SETS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS BAND SHOULD SETTLE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN THREAT BEHIND IS NIL.  MAIN CONVECTIVE
PRECIP HAS BEEN FOCUSING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH IN OHIO THUS CLOUD
BAND ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES APPEARS TO BE LESS A THREAT FOR RAIN
CHANCES BEHIND TROUGH BUT STILL NOT OUT OF QUESTION GIVEN
INCREASING INSTABILITY.

TEMPS STILL ON A TRACK SIMILAR TO OR A DEGREE BEHIND YESTERDAY.
STILL FEEL NEAR 90 POSSIBLE AT INDY BUT ODDS STARTING TO FAVOR IT
LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR THAN LAST COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /UPDATE FOR TONIGHT PORTION/...

ISSUED AT 1239 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ALL MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING AND WITH
LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE OR UPPER SUPPORT...WILL BE TRIMMING
POPS TO FEWER COUNTIES AND ENDING THREAT EARLIER THAN CURRENT
FORECAST. NO OTHER CHANGE TO TONIGHT AT THIS MOMENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY NIGHT...

ON THURSDAY EVENING THE GFS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN INDIANA...RIDING THE RIDGE. WILL
AGAIN NEED TO CONTINUE POPS INTO THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS WAVE PASSES AS THE
VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IN PLACE. AS
RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE SHORT WAVE
DEPARTS...CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF. THUS EVEN AFTER
ALL THAT EXPLANATION...WE ARE STILL AT THE SAME RESULT...POPS
DURING THE EVENING ON THURSDAY...TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER
INDIANA...HOWEVER SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AGAIN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW PLENTY OF CAPE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GIVEN THE WARM AND MOIST AIR
WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND WILL ALSO TREND HIGHS AT OR
ABOVE MAVMOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD AS THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.

ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS
UPPER DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SUBTLE UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ILLINOIS IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
MODEL DATA SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP WITH THIS
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
FORM JUST WEST OF THE ILLINOIS STATE LINE. AT THIS TIME...DON/T
THINK IT WILL BE WORTH A MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL MONITOR
TRENDS UP UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME.

SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS A
WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES...KIND/KHUF/KBMG. EXPECTED PROBABILITY/COVERAGE
PRECLUDE AN EXPLICIT MENTION AT THIS TIME. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION. CB BASES AROUND 025.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 025 HAS BEEN EXPANDING
SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA. THESE CEILINGS MAY GET INTO
KLAF FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING...MIXING OUT TOWARDS MIDDAY. SOME
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS
AFTER SUNRISE.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 7 KTS OR LESS TODAY...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR ANY
CONVECTION.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...SMF/JAS

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