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000
FXUS63 KIND 012033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 012033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 012100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF/CP


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THIS EVENING BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE WARM AND MORE HUMID ON SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THE MAIN
ISSUE. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS
PROBLEMATIC INITIALLY AS THESE DRY LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS WEAK THETA E RIDGE AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS EVENING AND HIRES MODELS STILL HINTING AT A FEW POSSIBLE
LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR CONSISTENCY OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR LIGHT SHRA AND DROPPED THUNDER MENTION.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WITH MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
UPSTREAM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVE EAST. MODELS HINTING THAT
PART OF THIS SYSTEM COULD CLIP OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN DICTATE HOW UNSTABLE WE GET
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN WARM
SECTOR. NAM12 SHOWING MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3K J/KG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN AFTERNOON. EML WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM. INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CAP...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THETA E MIN ALSO
REMAINS OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
BACK...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT DID LEAVE POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY EVENING/00Z MON A 500MB CLOSED LOW LINGERS OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
TRAILING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MN/WI EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING IS SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND EVENTUALLY WRAPS IN WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTH AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.9 INCHES AS A 850MB 45 KT JET PUMPS IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. FIRST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECOND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST AROUND 3-6Z. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AS WELL...REACHING AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM BY
21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
SUNDAY EVENING. THINKING THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK/LULL IN
PRECIPITATION AROUND 00Z IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...BUT
LEFT IN CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST
WAVE.

AS STRONGER FORCING APPROACHES WITH COUPLED 300 MB
JET/500 MB SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT AROUND 3-6Z...EXPECT SHOWERS/T-
STORMS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST AROUND 1-2K J/G OF ML CAPE IN THE WEST
BY THIS TIME...WITH ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD
STILL SUGGEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH WITH THE
UNFAVORABLE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS. IF ANY OCCURS...IT WILL BE IN THE FAR NW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
3-9Z TIME FRAME WEST AND CENTRAL...AND TOWARDS 12Z EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY...CLEARING THE REGION BY ABOUT 15Z. IN ITS WAKE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WAVES OF 3
TO 6 FEET AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES. HAVE
ISSUED A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR HAZAROUS CONDITIONS SUNDAY
LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN CWA WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BECOME LARGER AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN
A SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTH/HAVING A WEAKER HIGH TO THE NORTH WITH
PRECIP OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IN A STRONGER HIGH FROM
THE NORTH AND THUS KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP
US DRY. WILL KEEP CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...TEMPS LOOKING
COOLER THROUGH THE MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORT WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TO PASS THROUGH TAF SITES. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT A FEW
HIRES MODELS STILL SHOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHRA
DEVELOPING. OPTED TO REPLACE VCTS WITH VCSH GIVEN VERY LOW CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE AND LACK OF GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING
WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA BEFORE
18Z BUT NOT ENOUGH CHANCE FOR INCLUSION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THIS EVENING BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE WARM AND MORE HUMID ON SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THE MAIN
ISSUE. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS
PROBLEMATIC INITIALLY AS THESE DRY LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS WEAK THETA E RIDGE AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS EVENING AND HIRES MODELS STILL HINTING AT A FEW POSSIBLE
LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR CONSISTENCY OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR LIGHT SHRA AND DROPPED THUNDER MENTION.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WITH MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
UPSTREAM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVE EAST. MODELS HINTING THAT
PART OF THIS SYSTEM COULD CLIP OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN DICTATE HOW UNSTABLE WE GET
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN WARM
SECTOR. NAM12 SHOWING MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3K J/KG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN AFTERNOON. EML WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM. INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CAP...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THETA E MIN ALSO
REMAINS OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
BACK...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT DID LEAVE POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY EVENING/00Z MON A 500MB CLOSED LOW LINGERS OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
TRAILING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MN/WI EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING IS SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND EVENTUALLY WRAPS IN WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTH AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.9 INCHES AS A 850MB 45 KT JET PUMPS IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. FIRST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECOND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST AROUND 3-6Z. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AS WELL...REACHING AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM BY
21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
SUNDAY EVENING. THINKING THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK/LULL IN
PRECIPITATION AROUND 00Z IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...BUT
LEFT IN CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST
WAVE.

AS STRONGER FORCING APPROACHES WITH COUPLED 300 MB
JET/500 MB SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT AROUND 3-6Z...EXPECT SHOWERS/T-
STORMS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST AROUND 1-2K J/G OF ML CAPE IN THE WEST
BY THIS TIME...WITH ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD
STILL SUGGEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH WITH THE
UNFAVORABLE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS. IF ANY OCCURS...IT WILL BE IN THE FAR NW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
3-9Z TIME FRAME WEST AND CENTRAL...AND TOWARDS 12Z EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY...CLEARING THE REGION BY ABOUT 15Z. IN ITS WAKE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WAVES OF 3
TO 6 FEET AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES. HAVE
ISSUED A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR HAZAROUS CONDITIONS SUNDAY
LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN CWA WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BECOME LARGER AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN
A SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTH/HAVING A WEAKER HIGH TO THE NORTH WITH
PRECIP OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IN A STRONGER HIGH FROM
THE NORTH AND THUS KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP
US DRY. WILL KEEP CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...TEMPS LOOKING
COOLER THROUGH THE MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORT WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TO PASS THROUGH TAF SITES. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT A FEW
HIRES MODELS STILL SHOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHRA
DEVELOPING. OPTED TO REPLACE VCTS WITH VCSH GIVEN VERY LOW CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE AND LACK OF GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING
WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA BEFORE
18Z BUT NOT ENOUGH CHANCE FOR INCLUSION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THIS EVENING BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE WARM AND MORE HUMID ON SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THE MAIN
ISSUE. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS
PROBLEMATIC INITIALLY AS THESE DRY LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS WEAK THETA E RIDGE AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS EVENING AND HIRES MODELS STILL HINTING AT A FEW POSSIBLE
LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR CONSISTENCY OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR LIGHT SHRA AND DROPPED THUNDER MENTION.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WITH MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
UPSTREAM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVE EAST. MODELS HINTING THAT
PART OF THIS SYSTEM COULD CLIP OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN DICTATE HOW UNSTABLE WE GET
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN WARM
SECTOR. NAM12 SHOWING MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3K J/KG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN AFTERNOON. EML WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM. INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CAP...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THETA E MIN ALSO
REMAINS OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
BACK...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT DID LEAVE POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY EVENING/00Z MON A 500MB CLOSED LOW LINGERS OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
TRAILING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MN/WI EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING IS SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND EVENTUALLY WRAPS IN WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTH AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.9 INCHES AS A 850MB 45 KT JET PUMPS IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. FIRST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECOND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST AROUND 3-6Z. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AS WELL...REACHING AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM BY
21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
SUNDAY EVENING. THINKING THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK/LULL IN
PRECIPITATION AROUND 00Z IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...BUT
LEFT IN CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST
WAVE.

AS STRONGER FORCING APPROACHES WITH COUPLED 300 MB
JET/500 MB SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT AROUND 3-6Z...EXPECT SHOWERS/T-
STORMS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST AROUND 1-2K J/G OF ML CAPE IN THE WEST
BY THIS TIME...WITH ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD
STILL SUGGEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH WITH THE
UNFAVORABLE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS. IF ANY OCCURS...IT WILL BE IN THE FAR NW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
3-9Z TIME FRAME WEST AND CENTRAL...AND TOWARDS 12Z EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY...CLEARING THE REGION BY ABOUT 15Z. IN ITS WAKE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WAVES OF 3
TO 6 FEET AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES. HAVE
ISSUED A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR HAZAROUS CONDITIONS SUNDAY
LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN CWA WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BECOME LARGER AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN
A SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTH/HAVING A WEAKER HIGH TO THE NORTH WITH
PRECIP OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IN A STRONGER HIGH FROM
THE NORTH AND THUS KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP
US DRY. WILL KEEP CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...TEMPS LOOKING
COOLER THROUGH THE MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORT WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TO PASS THROUGH TAF SITES. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT A FEW
HIRES MODELS STILL SHOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHRA
DEVELOPING. OPTED TO REPLACE VCTS WITH VCSH GIVEN VERY LOW CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE AND LACK OF GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING
WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA BEFORE
18Z BUT NOT ENOUGH CHANCE FOR INCLUSION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
351 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER THIS EVENING BUT MOST AREAS
WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. IT WILL BE WARM AND MORE HUMID ON SUNDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

DIFFICULT SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS THE MAIN
ISSUE. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
READINGS INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN AND LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. THIS
PROBLEMATIC INITIALLY AS THESE DRY LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS WEAK THETA E RIDGE AND SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. INHERITED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS EVENING AND HIRES MODELS STILL HINTING AT A FEW POSSIBLE
LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR CONSISTENCY OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
FOR LIGHT SHRA AND DROPPED THUNDER MENTION.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WITH MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
UPSTREAM TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LIKELY MOVE EAST. MODELS HINTING THAT
PART OF THIS SYSTEM COULD CLIP OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL ONCE AGAIN DICTATE HOW UNSTABLE WE GET
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WHETHER ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN WARM
SECTOR. NAM12 SHOWING MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 3K J/KG WITH INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN AFTERNOON. EML WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 9C/KM. INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE CAP...RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THETA E MIN ALSO
REMAINS OVER THE REGION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
BACK...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...BUT DID LEAVE POPS IN ALL AREAS FOR
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ON SUNDAY EVENING/00Z MON A 500MB CLOSED LOW LINGERS OVER JAMES
BAY...WITH THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
TRAILING TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO MISSOURI. THE SFC LOW
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER MN/WI EARLIER SUNDAY MORNING IS SITUATED
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MI AND EVENTUALLY WRAPS IN WITH SURFACE LOW TO THE
NORTH AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH MONDAY. PWATS AROUND 1.3
INCREASE TO NEAR 1.9 INCHES AS A 850MB 45 KT JET PUMPS IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR. FIRST SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE SECOND IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST AROUND 3-6Z. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE DECENT AS WELL...REACHING AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM BY
21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES
SUNDAY EVENING. THINKING THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK/LULL IN
PRECIPITATION AROUND 00Z IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SHORTWAVE...BUT
LEFT IN CHANCE-SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING/DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE FIRST
WAVE.

AS STRONGER FORCING APPROACHES WITH COUPLED 300 MB
JET/500 MB SHORTWAVE/SFC COLD FRONT AROUND 3-6Z...EXPECT SHOWERS/T-
STORMS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST AROUND 1-2K J/G OF ML CAPE IN THE WEST
BY THIS TIME...WITH ABOUT 30-40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS WOULD
STILL SUGGEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH WITH THE
UNFAVORABLE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT TIMING HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS. IF ANY OCCURS...IT WILL BE IN THE FAR NW NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. FOR NOW...BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
3-9Z TIME FRAME WEST AND CENTRAL...AND TOWARDS 12Z EAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY...CLEARING THE REGION BY ABOUT 15Z. IN ITS WAKE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WAVES OF 3
TO 6 FEET AND DANGEROUS CURRENTS ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES. HAVE
ISSUED A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR HAZAROUS CONDITIONS SUNDAY
LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

OTHERWISE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE EASTERN CWA WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
LOW...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS. KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS DRY...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.

WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD...REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BECOME LARGER AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS BRINGING IN
A SFC LOW FROM THE SOUTH/HAVING A WEAKER HIGH TO THE NORTH WITH
PRECIP OVER THE CWA...AND THE ECMWF BRINGING IN A STRONGER HIGH FROM
THE NORTH AND THUS KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP
US DRY. WILL KEEP CONSENSUS POPS FOR NOW. EITHER WAY...TEMPS LOOKING
COOLER THROUGH THE MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORT WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TO PASS THROUGH TAF SITES. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT A FEW
HIRES MODELS STILL SHOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHRA
DEVELOPING. OPTED TO REPLACE VCTS WITH VCSH GIVEN VERY LOW CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE AND LACK OF GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING
WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA BEFORE
18Z BUT NOT ENOUGH CHANCE FOR INCLUSION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF



000
FXUS63 KIND 011834
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING CENTRAL INDIANA IN A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL
WAVES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THESE WEATHER
SYSTEMS...WITH THE GFS KEEPING THEM ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA OR
SKIMMING JUST SOUTH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN DRYING OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY. THE EURO ON THE OTHER
HAND TRACKS THE SYSTEMS FURTHER SOUTH...GIVING THE AREA A CHANCE FOR
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
KEEPING US DRY UNTIL ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER INITIALIZATION FAVORS THE GFS SOLUTION.
THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME
FOR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON TO START THE
PERIOD IN THE MID 60S...THEN DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS OF UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S HOWEVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MMB/SMF
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011807
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
207 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORT WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TO PASS THROUGH TAF SITES. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT A FEW
HIRES MODELS STILL SHOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHRA
DEVELOPING. OPTED TO REPLACE VCTS WITH VCSH GIVEN VERY LOW CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE AND LACK OF GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING
WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA BEFORE
18Z BUT NOT ENOUGH CHANCE FOR INCLUSION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011807
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
207 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND WEAK SHORT WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING TO PASS THROUGH TAF SITES. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT A FEW
HIRES MODELS STILL SHOW POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED SHRA
DEVELOPING. OPTED TO REPLACE VCTS WITH VCSH GIVEN VERY LOW CHANCE
OF OCCURRENCE AND LACK OF GOOD FORCING AND MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS SUNDAY MORNING
WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSRA BEFORE
18Z BUT NOT ENOUGH CHANCE FOR INCLUSION AT TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 011759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND QUIET WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION
WITH A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO MAINLY NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA ON LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PASS ACROSS INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME AMID QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE ALOFT WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW A CLOUD FREE SKY ACROSS THE STATE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT
AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. GOOD SUBSIDENCE SEEN
THROUGH THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT AS THERE APPEARS NO SUPPORT
ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. AS FOR TEMPS...850MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT WARMER
TAN LAST NIGHT WITH SOME WARMER AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT QUICK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TOO
LIMITED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S...WHICH WILL BE HARD TO REACH. THUS WILL TREND FOR
MAINLY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. WITH SOME WARM AIR POOLING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SURFACE TROUGH...WILL TREND HIGHS ON SUNDAY AT OR SLIGHT
ABOVE MAVMOS.

GFS AND NAM PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH A WEAK WAVE
ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS 210K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS A THIN
BAND OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES...OVER 7 G/KG SURGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT APPEAR MARGINAL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THUS WITH SOME GOOD MOISTURE AND LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRENDING
TOWARD A DRY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIP WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WITH BEST FORCING FEATURE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AS A RIDGE A
OF HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH...STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS APPEAR TOO HIGH ON MONDAY FOR DIURNAL
PRECIP...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON TUESDAY SHOW 700 MB TEMPS
REACH NEARLY 10C...PROVIDING A GOOD MID LEVEL INVERSION. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLAY WILL TREND
HIGH AND SLOWLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF



000
FXUS63 KIND 011731
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011731
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
131 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES.

STILL NOT EXPECTING FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT EVEN AT OUTLYING
SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS LATE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF



000
FXUS63 KIND 011440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF



000
FXUS63 KIND 011440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF




000
FXUS63 KIND 011440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1040 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

1430Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...SMF



000
FXUS63 KIND 011403
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1003 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 011403
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1003 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. IR IMAGES
FAIL TO SHOW ANY CLOUDS IN INDIANA. COOL NW FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE
50S.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE 90S FALLING TO THE UPPER 80S LATE IN THE
DAY. THUS WILL LOOKS FOR A FEW ISOLATED CU POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. FURTHERMORE...GIVEN
OUR EXPECTED 850MB TEMPS AND EXTENDED SUN...ONGOING FORECAST
TEMPS LOOK ON THE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD



000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD



000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD



000
FXUS63 KIND 011137
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
737 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TAF SITES. DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT
EVEN AT OUTLYING SITES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
LATE IN TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE...BUT THIS WILL NOT HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY
AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011052
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD AGAIN THIS PD. BUT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLW ALOFT DROPPING OUT OF SW ONTARIO
WILL SEND A SFC TROUGH ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT
MORE COHERENT SHRT TERM GUIDANCE SIGNAL TO AT LEAST ADD A LOOSELY
TIMED VCTS MENTION OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS ALTHOUGH DETAILS
STILL LACKING AT THIS POINT FOR ANYTHING MORE CONCRETE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 011052
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD AGAIN THIS PD. BUT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLW ALOFT DROPPING OUT OF SW ONTARIO
WILL SEND A SFC TROUGH ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT
MORE COHERENT SHRT TERM GUIDANCE SIGNAL TO AT LEAST ADD A LOOSELY
TIMED VCTS MENTION OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS ALTHOUGH DETAILS
STILL LACKING AT THIS POINT FOR ANYTHING MORE CONCRETE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011052
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD AGAIN THIS PD. BUT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLW ALOFT DROPPING OUT OF SW ONTARIO
WILL SEND A SFC TROUGH ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT
MORE COHERENT SHRT TERM GUIDANCE SIGNAL TO AT LEAST ADD A LOOSELY
TIMED VCTS MENTION OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS ALTHOUGH DETAILS
STILL LACKING AT THIS POINT FOR ANYTHING MORE CONCRETE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011052
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD AGAIN THIS PD. BUT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLW ALOFT DROPPING OUT OF SW ONTARIO
WILL SEND A SFC TROUGH ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT
MORE COHERENT SHRT TERM GUIDANCE SIGNAL TO AT LEAST ADD A LOOSELY
TIMED VCTS MENTION OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS ALTHOUGH DETAILS
STILL LACKING AT THIS POINT FOR ANYTHING MORE CONCRETE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011052
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD AGAIN THIS PD. BUT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLW ALOFT DROPPING OUT OF SW ONTARIO
WILL SEND A SFC TROUGH ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT
MORE COHERENT SHRT TERM GUIDANCE SIGNAL TO AT LEAST ADD A LOOSELY
TIMED VCTS MENTION OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS ALTHOUGH DETAILS
STILL LACKING AT THIS POINT FOR ANYTHING MORE CONCRETE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011052
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD AGAIN THIS PD. BUT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLW ALOFT DROPPING OUT OF SW ONTARIO
WILL SEND A SFC TROUGH ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT
MORE COHERENT SHRT TERM GUIDANCE SIGNAL TO AT LEAST ADD A LOOSELY
TIMED VCTS MENTION OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS ALTHOUGH DETAILS
STILL LACKING AT THIS POINT FOR ANYTHING MORE CONCRETE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 011004
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
604 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD



000
FXUS63 KIND 011004
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
604 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 010752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 010752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010752
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER LOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN CANADA FOR DURATION
OF EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SHORT WAVES PERIODICALLY TRAVELLING AROUND
IT. THESE SHORT WAVES WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES FOR MOST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WILL ESPECIALLY PROVIDE
ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD AGAIN THIS PD. HWVR ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLW ALOFT DROPPING OUT OF SW
ONTARIO WILL SEND A SFC TROUGH ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BTR
CHC FOR A BRIEF PD OF TSRA INVOF KSBN THIS EVENING YET GIVEN
CONFLICTING NR TERM GUIDANCE SIGNALS PREFER TO WAIT FOR A MORE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN LTR GUIDANCE BFR TAKING A STAB AT INCLUSION IN
TAF.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD AGAIN THIS PD. HWVR ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLW ALOFT DROPPING OUT OF SW
ONTARIO WILL SEND A SFC TROUGH ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BTR
CHC FOR A BRIEF PD OF TSRA INVOF KSBN THIS EVENING YET GIVEN
CONFLICTING NR TERM GUIDANCE SIGNALS PREFER TO WAIT FOR A MORE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN LTR GUIDANCE BFR TAKING A STAB AT INCLUSION IN
TAF.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
322 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO
THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

ANOTHER DIFFICULT SHRT TERM PD ON TAP. ANOTHER IN A
SERIES OF UPR DISTURBANCES OVR SWRN ONTARIO WAS NOTED THIS MORNING
ROTATING E/SEWD THROUGH BASED OF UPR LOW CNTRD OVR JAMES BAY W/SOME
DECAYING CONVN ALG THE N SHORE OF LK SUP. HWVR UNLIKE YDA SIG
SCOURING OF LL THETA-E RIDGING HAD OCCURRED WHICH BY ALL SHRT TERM
GUIDANCE ACCOUNTS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO RECOVER. THAT SAID MEAN
TROUGHING ASSOCD/W JAMES BAY UPR LOW XPCD TO FLATTEN THIS PD AS SWRN
ONTARIO DISTURBANCE WRAPS EWD. SFC TROUGH IN ASSOCN/W THIS FTR XPCD
TO PASS THROUGH THE SRN/WRN LAKES THIS EVENING W/ROBUST RENEWED LL
THETA-E PLUME FOLDING EWD INTO THE WRN CWA TWD 00Z AND PROGRESSING
INTO OH BY LT EVENING. BEST OVERLAP OF MSTR/FORCING AND FNTL TIMING
WARRANTS AN APPRECIABLE BUMP TO POPS THIS EVENING WRN HALF FOLLOWED
BY A TAIL OFF W/E/SE EXTENT BY LT EVENING. OTRWS SEASONABLE TEMPS
XPCD AGAIN THROUGH THE PD W/ENLARGED DIURNAL SPREADS FVRD AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WILL PERSIST UNDER A HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY THAT WILL DRIFT ESE INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE RESULT
WILL BE TEMPS TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES
FOR RAIN/STORMS AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES PROPAGATE THROUGH.

THE MAIN FOCUS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS/CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO TRANSLATE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED SHARP MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL AID IN RAMPING OF
PRE-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE LOWER LAKES. THE RESULTING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL PRIME THE LOCAL AREA FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...CHANCES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY APPEAR
LOW...WITH MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACTIVITY INTO NORTHWEST ZONES
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE AND SURVIVAL OF
SATURDAY NIGHT`S UPSTREAM CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER LAKES. BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NORTHWEST IN AN AREA OF MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

GROWING SFC BASED INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...HELD WITH LOW POPS GIVEN
INCREASED CAPPING/EML OVERSPREAD WITH REGION CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER
WAVES. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR A ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT HELD OFF ON INCREASING INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY
GIVEN LINGERING MODEL TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION INTO A MCS (WIND THREAT)
GIVEN STRONG 0-3 KM FLOW/SHEAR AND LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY
(THANKS TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MID/UPPER 60S SFC
DEWPOINTS).

THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL FOCUS/SUPPRESS SOUTH IN THE VICINITY
OF THE OHIO/MID MS VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO
SOUTHERN DRIFT OF HUDSON BAY LOW. NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SFC WILL SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWER CONFIDENCE
FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR REGARDING RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDER CHANCES TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO ACTIVE FRONTAL SLOPE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD AGAIN THIS PD. HWVR ANOTHER IN A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLW ALOFT DROPPING OUT OF SW
ONTARIO WILL SEND A SFC TROUGH ACRS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. BTR
CHC FOR A BRIEF PD OF TSRA INVOF KSBN THIS EVENING YET GIVEN
CONFLICTING NR TERM GUIDANCE SIGNALS PREFER TO WAIT FOR A MORE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN LTR GUIDANCE BFR TAKING A STAB AT INCLUSION IN
TAF.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 010716
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 010716
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 010716
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 010716
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CENTRAL INDIANA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER WAVES AND SURFACE FRONTS TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN STARTING SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP LOW
LEVELS DRY. SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY...BUT IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

THUS WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST TODAY. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE...SO SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD COVER IT.

MOS RAN A LITTLE COOL FRIDAY...SO WILL BUMP UP MOS A BIT FOR HIGHS
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OVERALL THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

SOME UPPER ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA EARLY TONIGHT
BUT WILL NOT HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. A STRONGER WAVE WILL
APPROACH LATE...BUT CURRENT TIMING IS TOO SLOW TO HAVE AN IMPACT FOR
TONIGHT. THUS WENT DRY TONIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MOISTURE IS NOT GREAT THOUGH...AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO LOWER
POPS. WILL JUST GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PROVIDE BETTER
FORCING. WENT CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS. KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MONDAY AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS
DIFFER ON TIMING SO STUCK WITH A BLEND.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 010456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 01/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF FOG AFTER 09Z AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...HOWEVER NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN
ANYWHERE. LAST NIGHT FOG ONLY OCCURED AT LAF AND LASTED LESS THAN AN
HOUR. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD FORM AFTER 16Z.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10
KNOTS BY 16Z OR A BIT BEFORE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 010230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 010230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 010148
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 010148
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 948 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR THE UPDATE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
NORTH BASED ON DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AND CONSENSUS OF
LATEST GUIDANCE NUMBERS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
841 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AND
REMOVE POPS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NORTHWEST GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH BOUNDARY DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT PREVIOUS MINS FROM
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY 21Z SATURDAY...WHICH
KEEPS OUR CWA ON THE PERIPHERY UNDER CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS. FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS FAIRLY
STATIONARY 500MB LOW SPINS OVER HUDSON BAY. MODELS ONCE AGAIN
CONFLICTING ON POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA...PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/AROUND 1.3
INCHES. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1500 J/KG ML CAPE
RANGE...SO THINKING ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS TODAY...SO
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND STRONG CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN COUNTY SHORELINE.
KEPT A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE HUDSON BAY
REGION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO ALSO
BUILD WEST AND NORTH KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONTS.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKES
REGION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RAISED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY BUT STOPPED SHORT OF LIKELY GIVEN CONVECTIVE
NATURE AND MODEL ISSUES. FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT SECONDARY SHORT WAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SO ALLOWED LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE FOR NOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS FLIP
FLOPPING ON A STRONGER WAVE MID WEEK MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
STAYED WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH NEAR SFC
BOUNDARY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN GUIDANCE AS THEY TRY TO
RESOLVE THE WEAK WAVES WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ANY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS HAS ENDED AT TERMINALS AS SFC FRONT HAS
CLEARED TO THE SOUTH. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOULD BECOME WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 02Z WITH CENTER OF SFC
ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO BACK ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED WITH WEAK FORCING. MODEST
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 18 KNOT
RANGE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...SLASH
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
841 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AND
REMOVE POPS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NORTHWEST GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH BOUNDARY DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT PREVIOUS MINS FROM
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY 21Z SATURDAY...WHICH
KEEPS OUR CWA ON THE PERIPHERY UNDER CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS. FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS FAIRLY
STATIONARY 500MB LOW SPINS OVER HUDSON BAY. MODELS ONCE AGAIN
CONFLICTING ON POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA...PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/AROUND 1.3
INCHES. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1500 J/KG ML CAPE
RANGE...SO THINKING ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS TODAY...SO
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND STRONG CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN COUNTY SHORELINE.
KEPT A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE HUDSON BAY
REGION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO ALSO
BUILD WEST AND NORTH KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONTS.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKES
REGION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RAISED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY BUT STOPPED SHORT OF LIKELY GIVEN CONVECTIVE
NATURE AND MODEL ISSUES. FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT SECONDARY SHORT WAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SO ALLOWED LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE FOR NOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS FLIP
FLOPPING ON A STRONGER WAVE MID WEEK MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
STAYED WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH NEAR SFC
BOUNDARY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN GUIDANCE AS THEY TRY TO
RESOLVE THE WEAK WAVES WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ANY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS HAS ENDED AT TERMINALS AS SFC FRONT HAS
CLEARED TO THE SOUTH. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOULD BECOME WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 02Z WITH CENTER OF SFC
ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO BACK ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED WITH WEAK FORCING. MODEST
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 18 KNOT
RANGE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...SLASH
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
841 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AND
REMOVE POPS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NORTHWEST GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH BOUNDARY DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT PREVIOUS MINS FROM
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY 21Z SATURDAY...WHICH
KEEPS OUR CWA ON THE PERIPHERY UNDER CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS. FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS FAIRLY
STATIONARY 500MB LOW SPINS OVER HUDSON BAY. MODELS ONCE AGAIN
CONFLICTING ON POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA...PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/AROUND 1.3
INCHES. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1500 J/KG ML CAPE
RANGE...SO THINKING ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS TODAY...SO
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND STRONG CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN COUNTY SHORELINE.
KEPT A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE HUDSON BAY
REGION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO ALSO
BUILD WEST AND NORTH KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONTS.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKES
REGION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RAISED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY BUT STOPPED SHORT OF LIKELY GIVEN CONVECTIVE
NATURE AND MODEL ISSUES. FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT SECONDARY SHORT WAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SO ALLOWED LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE FOR NOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS FLIP
FLOPPING ON A STRONGER WAVE MID WEEK MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
STAYED WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH NEAR SFC
BOUNDARY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN GUIDANCE AS THEY TRY TO
RESOLVE THE WEAK WAVES WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ANY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS HAS ENDED AT TERMINALS AS SFC FRONT HAS
CLEARED TO THE SOUTH. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOULD BECOME WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 02Z WITH CENTER OF SFC
ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO BACK ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED WITH WEAK FORCING. MODEST
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 18 KNOT
RANGE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...SLASH
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
841 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST THIS EVENING TO REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING AND
REMOVE POPS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NORTHWEST GUSTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH BOUNDARY DECOUPLING...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT PREVIOUS MINS FROM
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY 21Z SATURDAY...WHICH
KEEPS OUR CWA ON THE PERIPHERY UNDER CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS. FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS FAIRLY
STATIONARY 500MB LOW SPINS OVER HUDSON BAY. MODELS ONCE AGAIN
CONFLICTING ON POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA...PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/AROUND 1.3
INCHES. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1500 J/KG ML CAPE
RANGE...SO THINKING ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS TODAY...SO
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND STRONG CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN COUNTY SHORELINE.
KEPT A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE HUDSON BAY
REGION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO ALSO
BUILD WEST AND NORTH KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONTS.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKES
REGION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RAISED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY BUT STOPPED SHORT OF LIKELY GIVEN CONVECTIVE
NATURE AND MODEL ISSUES. FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT SECONDARY SHORT WAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SO ALLOWED LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE FOR NOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS FLIP
FLOPPING ON A STRONGER WAVE MID WEEK MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
STAYED WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH NEAR SFC
BOUNDARY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN GUIDANCE AS THEY TRY TO
RESOLVE THE WEAK WAVES WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ANY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 801 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS HAS ENDED AT TERMINALS AS SFC FRONT HAS
CLEARED TO THE SOUTH. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOULD BECOME WEST AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 02Z WITH CENTER OF SFC
ANTICYCLONE DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WINDS TO BACK ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE
AREA...ALLOWING FOR SOME RETURN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
HOWEVER WILL KEEP TAFS DRY AS ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY ISOLATED WITH WEAK FORCING. MODEST
GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SOME WESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE 15 TO 18 KNOT
RANGE ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...SLASH
AVIATION...MARSILI


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000
FXUS63 KIND 312205
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 312205
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING LOWER DEW POINTS TO THE
TERMINALS THIS EVENING. SO...DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 01Z
THIS EVENING AND RE-FORM AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT WEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND ISSUANCE
TIME AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 312033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

RAISED WINDS TO 12 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 312007
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
407 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY 21Z SATURDAY...WHICH
KEEPS OUR CWA ON THE PERIPHERY UNDER CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS. FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS FAIRLY
STATIONARY 500MB LOW SPINS OVER HUDSON BAY. MODELS ONCE AGAIN
CONFLICTING ON POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA...PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/AROUND 1.3
INCHES. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1500 J/KG ML CAPE
RANGE...SO THINKING ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS TODAY...SO
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND STRONG CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN COUNTY SHORELINE.
KEPT A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE HUDSON BAY
REGION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO ALSO
BUILD WEST AND NORTH KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONTS.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKES
REGION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RAISED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY BUT STOPPED SHORT OF LIKELY GIVEN CONVECTIVE
NATURE AND MODEL ISSUES. FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT SECONDARY SHORT WAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SO ALLOWED LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE FOR NOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS FLIP
FLOPPING ON A STRONGER WAVE MID WEEK MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
STAYED WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH NEAR SFC
BOUNDARY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN GUIDANCE AS THEY TRY TO
RESOLVE THE WEAK WAVES WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ANY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST STILL LOOKING ON TRACK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...SLASH
AVIATION...MCD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 312007
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
407 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE MID 80S INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUIET FORECAST IN STORE FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE BY 21Z SATURDAY...WHICH
KEEPS OUR CWA ON THE PERIPHERY UNDER CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS. FLOW
ALOFT REMAINS FAIRLY ZONAL OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS FAIRLY
STATIONARY 500MB LOW SPINS OVER HUDSON BAY. MODELS ONCE AGAIN
CONFLICTING ON POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW WILL APPROACH THE AREA...PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION...WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY/AROUND 1.3
INCHES. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1500 J/KG ML CAPE
RANGE...SO THINKING ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER...FORCING IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS TODAY...SO
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO WAVE HEIGHTS
OF 2 TO 3 FEET AND STRONG CURRENTS ALONG THE BERRIEN COUNTY SHORELINE.
KEPT A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PESKY UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE HUDSON BAY
REGION THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE TO ALSO
BUILD WEST AND NORTH KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONTS.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE LAKES
REGION ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING SHOULD ALLOW AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RAISED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY BUT STOPPED SHORT OF LIKELY GIVEN CONVECTIVE
NATURE AND MODEL ISSUES. FRONT NOW LOOKS TO BE EXITING THE AREA ON
MONDAY BUT SECONDARY SHORT WAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SO ALLOWED LOW CHANCE POPS TO CONTINUE FOR NOW MONDAY
AFTERNOON. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN WITH MODELS FLIP
FLOPPING ON A STRONGER WAVE MID WEEK MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
STAYED WITH SOME LOW CHANCE POPS WITH HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH NEAR SFC
BOUNDARY. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CHANGES IN GUIDANCE AS THEY TRY TO
RESOLVE THE WEAK WAVES WITHIN LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ANY CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORT WAVES UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST STILL LOOKING ON TRACK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 20Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...SLASH
AVIATION...MCD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 311940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS EVENING. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON RADAR
MOSAIC AND SATELLITE LOOPS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA/CP
NEAR TERM...PUMA/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311917
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE WEATHER ON SATURDAY STILL LOOKS DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.

THEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD AND AN UPPER WAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES SEEM TO WARRANT ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FARTHER NORTH...NEARER TO THE BOUNDARY. WENT
WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN
EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK ANEMIC GIVEN THE
LACK OF MOISTURE AND LIFT. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A NW FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE
OHIO VALLEY FROM TIME TO TIME. MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN A PROBLEM
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BLOCK GULF MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING
IN THE OHIO VALLEY. THUS CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP EVENT REMAINS
LOW...HOWEVER WITH UPPER FORCING IN PLACE FROM TIME TO TIME AND
NO FEATURES IN PLACE PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE...CANNOT RULE OUT
AT LEAST LOW CHCS FOR TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK.

GIVEN THE NW FLOW HAVE TRENDED TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311735
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
135 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN CWA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH INCREASED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP AROUND
1 PM EDT WITHIN A LINE OF CU AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD...MAINLY SOUTH OF
US-30. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT
PASSES. THESE MODEST ONSHORE WINDS LED TO WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 3
FEET ON LAKE MICHIGAN IN NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY. UPGRADED THE
SWIM RISK TO MODERATE ACCORDINGLY GIVEN THAT WINDS/WAVES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST STILL LOOKING ON TRACK FOR VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
TODAY...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. KFWA STILL
HAS THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING SOME PRECIPITATION...SO INCLUDED VCTS
AROUND 20Z WHEN FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS OF 1720Z...THERE WAS A SCT-
BKN LINE OF CU ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM KSBN SOUTHWESTWARD TO
UNION HILL ILLINOIS...WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT
NEAR MARSHALL/STARKE COUNTIES. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN
HEAVIER SHOWER/TS IF ONE REACHES KFWA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MCD


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000
FXUS63 KIND 311726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT AND MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS THIS EVENING. BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IN PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN
REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER QUICK MOVING UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE PASSES
ACROSS THE STATE ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINING BETTER
RAIN CHANCES.

MORE RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME NEXT WORK WEEK
AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASS...EACH BRINING LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE...CENTERED OVER KANSAS...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING EAST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AROUND LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA.
A WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
NW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH A STREAM OF DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE OVER IOWA...ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO BLOCK ANY GULF MOISTURE FROM
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS REMAINED MILD IN THE MID 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN QUIET DRY TONIGHT.
SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE. ANY CLOUDS LINGERING ALONG THE
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPS...NAM SUGGEST A BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE STEADY STATE. LOOKING
UPSTREAM TO PREVIOUS LOWS...NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEMS TO
BE ARRIVING. WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING 850MB TEMPS AT OR ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW VALUES THIS MORNING...WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT AT OR
ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311620
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS NOSING A
RIDGE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NE ILLINOIS WAS DIVING E-SE...OVER THE RIDGE.
SATELLITE SHOWING FEW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTIVE TEMPS TODAY AND TOMORROW APPEAR TO BE
IN THE MID 80S...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT HIGH CU EACH AFTERNOON
WITH MAX HEATING. OTHERWISE P6SM WITH UNLIMITED CIGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1038 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FORECAST GENERALLY APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MADE A FEW
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT CU THIS
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED. MID LEVEL CAPPING
APPEARS MARGINAL...BUT WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALOFT AND
THROUGH THE COLUMN...CHCS FOR PRECIP APPEAR TOO ISOLATED FOR EVEN
A VCTS MENTION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311406
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1006 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND INCLUDE A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS/WEBCAMS SHOW
SCT-BKN DECK OF CLOUDS MOVING ONSHORE IN BERRIEN/LAPORTE
COUNTIES AS OF 14Z. UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION
WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND GIVEN DRIER AIR IN PLACE...SO KEPT
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED. AFTERNOON FORECAST OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS STILL
UNCERTAIN...HAVE KEPT GOING ISO-SCT COVERAGE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. WHILE SUGGESTION REMAINS IN EARLIER
00Z BASED GUIDANCE...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF HRRR/RAP ALG W/06Z NAM HAVE
DECIDEDLY TRENDED HOSTILE TWD INITIATING CONVN ALG WK CDFNT CROSSING
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF QUESTIONABLE MODEL
HANDLING OF CRITICAL BNDRY LYR MASS FLUX WILL DEFER POTENTIAL AFTN
TSRA INCLUSION AT KFWA TO 18Z ISSUANCE AS REACH OF LL THETA-E PLUME
AS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL AT NARROWING POTENTIAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN THIS AFTN
W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCD
SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 311127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD



000
FXUS63 KIND 311127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 311127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD



000
FXUS63 KIND 311127
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
727 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/1200Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL HAVE TO BE RE-
ADDRESSED WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE. SO...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE THE PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE DURATION OF TAF
PERIOD FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 13 KTS DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. WHILE SUGGESTION REMAINS IN EARLIER
00Z BASED GUIDANCE...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF HRRR/RAP ALG W/06Z NAM HAVE
DECIDEDLY TRENDED HOSTILE TWD INITIATING CONVN ALG WK CDFNT CROSSING
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF QUESTIONABLE MODEL
HANDLING OF CRITICAL BNDRY LYR MASS FLUX WILL DEFER POTENTIAL AFTN
TSRA INCLUSION AT KFWA TO 18Z ISSUANCE AS REACH OF LL THETA-E PLUME
AS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL AT NARROWING POTENTIAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN THIS AFTN
W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. WHILE SUGGESTION REMAINS IN EARLIER
00Z BASED GUIDANCE...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF HRRR/RAP ALG W/06Z NAM HAVE
DECIDEDLY TRENDED HOSTILE TWD INITIATING CONVN ALG WK CDFNT CROSSING
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF QUESTIONABLE MODEL
HANDLING OF CRITICAL BNDRY LYR MASS FLUX WILL DEFER POTENTIAL AFTN
TSRA INCLUSION AT KFWA TO 18Z ISSUANCE AS REACH OF LL THETA-E PLUME
AS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL AT NARROWING POTENTIAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN THIS AFTN
W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. WHILE SUGGESTION REMAINS IN EARLIER
00Z BASED GUIDANCE...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF HRRR/RAP ALG W/06Z NAM HAVE
DECIDEDLY TRENDED HOSTILE TWD INITIATING CONVN ALG WK CDFNT CROSSING
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF QUESTIONABLE MODEL
HANDLING OF CRITICAL BNDRY LYR MASS FLUX WILL DEFER POTENTIAL AFTN
TSRA INCLUSION AT KFWA TO 18Z ISSUANCE AS REACH OF LL THETA-E PLUME
AS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL AT NARROWING POTENTIAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN THIS AFTN
W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. WHILE SUGGESTION REMAINS IN EARLIER
00Z BASED GUIDANCE...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF HRRR/RAP ALG W/06Z NAM HAVE
DECIDEDLY TRENDED HOSTILE TWD INITIATING CONVN ALG WK CDFNT CROSSING
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF QUESTIONABLE MODEL
HANDLING OF CRITICAL BNDRY LYR MASS FLUX WILL DEFER POTENTIAL AFTN
TSRA INCLUSION AT KFWA TO 18Z ISSUANCE AS REACH OF LL THETA-E PLUME
AS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL AT NARROWING POTENTIAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN THIS AFTN
W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. WHILE SUGGESTION REMAINS IN EARLIER
00Z BASED GUIDANCE...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF HRRR/RAP ALG W/06Z NAM HAVE
DECIDEDLY TRENDED HOSTILE TWD INITIATING CONVN ALG WK CDFNT CROSSING
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF QUESTIONABLE MODEL
HANDLING OF CRITICAL BNDRY LYR MASS FLUX WILL DEFER POTENTIAL AFTN
TSRA INCLUSION AT KFWA TO 18Z ISSUANCE AS REACH OF LL THETA-E PLUME
AS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL AT NARROWING POTENTIAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN THIS AFTN
W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. WHILE SUGGESTION REMAINS IN EARLIER
00Z BASED GUIDANCE...SUBSEQUENT RUNS OF HRRR/RAP ALG W/06Z NAM HAVE
DECIDEDLY TRENDED HOSTILE TWD INITIATING CONVN ALG WK CDFNT CROSSING
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTN. AS SUCH AND IN LIGHT OF QUESTIONABLE MODEL
HANDLING OF CRITICAL BNDRY LYR MASS FLUX WILL DEFER POTENTIAL AFTN
TSRA INCLUSION AT KFWA TO 18Z ISSUANCE AS REACH OF LL THETA-E PLUME
AS SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS WILL BE INSTRUMENTAL AT NARROWING POTENTIAL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN THIS AFTN
W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 310817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD



000
FXUS63 KIND 310817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 310747
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 310747
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE
THE AREA. ALOFT...A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF EASTERN CANADA...AND WEAK WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THAT LOW WILL
AFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA AT TIMES. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...STALLING
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL START OUT AROUND NORMAL AND THEN FALL BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIWX 310731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SOME SUGGESTION REMAINS
IN VARIOUS SHRT TERM GUIDANCE OF POTENTIAL TSRA THIS AFTN ESP INVOF
KFWA HWVR UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ESP IN POTENTIAL LL MSTR RTN AHD OF
SEWD PROGRESSING FNTL BNDRY. WILL AWAIT LTR NR TERM GUIDANCE/TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN 12Z TAF. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN
THIS AFTN W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 310731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SOME SUGGESTION REMAINS
IN VARIOUS SHRT TERM GUIDANCE OF POTENTIAL TSRA THIS AFTN ESP INVOF
KFWA HWVR UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ESP IN POTENTIAL LL MSTR RTN AHD OF
SEWD PROGRESSING FNTL BNDRY. WILL AWAIT LTR NR TERM GUIDANCE/TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN 12Z TAF. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN
THIS AFTN W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 310731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SOME SUGGESTION REMAINS
IN VARIOUS SHRT TERM GUIDANCE OF POTENTIAL TSRA THIS AFTN ESP INVOF
KFWA HWVR UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ESP IN POTENTIAL LL MSTR RTN AHD OF
SEWD PROGRESSING FNTL BNDRY. WILL AWAIT LTR NR TERM GUIDANCE/TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN 12Z TAF. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN
THIS AFTN W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 310731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SOME SUGGESTION REMAINS
IN VARIOUS SHRT TERM GUIDANCE OF POTENTIAL TSRA THIS AFTN ESP INVOF
KFWA HWVR UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ESP IN POTENTIAL LL MSTR RTN AHD OF
SEWD PROGRESSING FNTL BNDRY. WILL AWAIT LTR NR TERM GUIDANCE/TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN 12Z TAF. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN
THIS AFTN W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 310731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SOME SUGGESTION REMAINS
IN VARIOUS SHRT TERM GUIDANCE OF POTENTIAL TSRA THIS AFTN ESP INVOF
KFWA HWVR UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ESP IN POTENTIAL LL MSTR RTN AHD OF
SEWD PROGRESSING FNTL BNDRY. WILL AWAIT LTR NR TERM GUIDANCE/TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN 12Z TAF. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN
THIS AFTN W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 310731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SOME SUGGESTION REMAINS
IN VARIOUS SHRT TERM GUIDANCE OF POTENTIAL TSRA THIS AFTN ESP INVOF
KFWA HWVR UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ESP IN POTENTIAL LL MSTR RTN AHD OF
SEWD PROGRESSING FNTL BNDRY. WILL AWAIT LTR NR TERM GUIDANCE/TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN 12Z TAF. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN
THIS AFTN W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 310731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SOME SUGGESTION REMAINS
IN VARIOUS SHRT TERM GUIDANCE OF POTENTIAL TSRA THIS AFTN ESP INVOF
KFWA HWVR UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ESP IN POTENTIAL LL MSTR RTN AHD OF
SEWD PROGRESSING FNTL BNDRY. WILL AWAIT LTR NR TERM GUIDANCE/TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN 12Z TAF. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN
THIS AFTN W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 310731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THIS AFTERNOON... SPARKING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DIFFICULT NR TERM OWING TO SEWD AMPLIFICATION OF
SEASONABLY STG SW OVR SWRN ONTARIO AS ATTENDANT SFC TROUGH CROSSES
THE SRN LAKES THIS AFTN. NARROW LL THETA-E RIDGING NOTED UPSTREAM IN
00Z RAOBS AND XPCD TO ADVT E/NE INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTN. HWVR SIG
DIFFS NOTED AMG EVEN SHRT TERM GUIDANCE W/DEGREE OF BNDRY LYR
MOISTENING AND/OR DRYING THAT TAKES PLACE INTO THIS AFTN AND AS SUCH
WHETHER OR NOT CONVN INITIATES OR NOT IN AN OTRWS FVRBL SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT AS DECENT HGT FALLS OVERSPREAD FNTL ZONE THIS AFTN.
REGARDLESS GIVEN OBSVD SFC CONDS UPSTREAM YDA WITHIN WELL MIXED
BNDRY LYR AND GENERAL WIDESPREAD UPR 50 TDS...CONSERVATIVE SFC BASED
CAPES SHLD APCH 1000 J/KG ACRS NRN IN/NW OH PRIOR TO FROPA AND WILL
ENTERTAIN USUALLY SUPERIOR 4KM SPC WRF IN NOTCHING A SWATH OF HIGHER
POPS MID-LT AFTN SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 ESP SW/SRN THIRD IN PROXIMITY TO
HIGHER XPCD LL THETA-E RTN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
UNDER A QUASI-STATIONARY HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY PIVOT
SOUTHEAST. NUMEROUS SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
BELOW NORMAL. AS EXPECTED MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE
TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF THESE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES MAKING POPS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FCST IN ANY ONE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY IN ON
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH INITIAL LOW LEVEL WAA
SURGE/CONVECTIVELY AIDED WAVE...AND LATER SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CDFNT ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES FOR BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. SOME SUGGESTION REMAINS
IN VARIOUS SHRT TERM GUIDANCE OF POTENTIAL TSRA THIS AFTN ESP INVOF
KFWA HWVR UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ESP IN POTENTIAL LL MSTR RTN AHD OF
SEWD PROGRESSING FNTL BNDRY. WILL AWAIT LTR NR TERM GUIDANCE/TRENDS
FOR POTENTIAL INCLUSION IN 12Z TAF. OTRWS DECENT MIXING XPCD AGAIN
THIS AFTN W/WRLY SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS BY MID AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 310649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 310649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 310649
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO BELOW AVERAGE
READINGS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED...BUT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY
POOL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

NAM/WRF/WRF-NMM MODELS ALL GENERATE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH
THE FRONT...WHILE MOST OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. GIVEN NAM PROPENSITY
FOR OVERDOING DEWPOINTS...WOULD USUALLY KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY.

HOWEVER...SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE TODAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW IS INFAMOUS FOR GENERATING
CONVECTION WHEN YOU THINK IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

THUS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL WORD AS ISOLATED TO REINFORCE THE
LIMITED COVERAGE.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS NUMBERS AS THERE SHOULD
BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
FOR SAME REASONS AS NOTED IN THE NEAR TERM SECTION WILL INTRODUCE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING. WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND FRONT
EXITING THE AREA CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHWEST LATE IN THE NIGHT.

UPPER WAVES COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FORCING/MOISTURE ARE SUCH
THAT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LOOK WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A BLEND OF MOS FOR TEMPERATURES AS THEY LOOK
REASONABLE GIVEN EXPECTED CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 310540
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 310540
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 31/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. WOULD NOT RULE OUT BRIEF
MVFR OR IFR FOG OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...GOOD CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHOULD SEE FEW-SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 5K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR AGAIN AFTER 01Z SATURDAY.

CALM OR LIGHT WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AFTER 16Z TO 10 KNOTS
OR SO.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 310221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF. VFR TO CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 310221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF. VFR TO CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 310151
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 310151
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 310151
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 310151
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING QUIET AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT MAY DROP
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEITHER APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS POINT TO BRING MORE THAN A LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN NEXT WORK
WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES MADE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK DRY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY AND THUS WILL GO WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WENT JUST A
DEGREE ABOVE MAVMOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THE WINDS DO NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE
REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS PAST
MONTH. FORECAST LOWS...LOW 60S /NORTH COUNTIES/ TO MID 60S /SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

A FEW SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY. MODELS HINT MOSTLY AT THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCURRING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING...IMPACT LOOKS MINIMAL...AND THE COLUMN STILL SO VERY DRY
DURING THIS TIME THAT DOUBT MUCH MORE THAN AND INCREASE IN LOW TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS LIKELY. THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH CUTS OFF ANY CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RETURN
FLOW.

DEW POINTS WILL START CREEPING UP AGAIN INTO THE MID 60S LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY AS A
FRONT IS PROJECTED TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
COLUMN APPEARS MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS.

MAVMOS APPEARS REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ONLY NEEDED
TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY AT TIMES...AS BOTH THE HIGHS AND LOWS APPEARS TO BE ON
THE COOL SIDE PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GFS SHOWS A NW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WITHIN
THE FLOW...SEVERAL WEAK...POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO
PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FROM TIME TO TIME. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH APPEARS TO BLOCK MUCH
OF THE ACCESS TO GULF MOISTURE.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO SWEEP OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TOWARD INDIANA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WEAK WAVES...WILL KEEP A LOW CHC FOR POPS FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED
AS DICTATED BY ALLBLEND. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 605 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS OR AC AT HUF AND BMG TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLTE TRENDS SUGGEST CLEAR
SKIES. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...FOG SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE EVEN
WITH WEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM. WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT
AFTER 16Z FRIDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT FEW AFTERNOON CU TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/CP
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIWX 302337
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT
CONTINUING TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALOFT THE CWA IS UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW/WEAK TROUGHING...AS THE
AREA RESTS BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A CLOSED LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WEATHER
WILL REMAIN SETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME MIXING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT...THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS TO THE
NORTHEAST PER 850-500MB QVECTOR DIV. AT THE SFC...VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH TO THE AREA. BY FRIDAY EVENING/AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IN ITS
WAKE...EXTENDING FROM NE LOWER MI...ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
NORTHERN IL/IA. ON THE FENCE AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES FOR THE
EASTERN HALF LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE
TROUGH ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT/PER
ML CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE.
AS FAR AS THE NEGATIVES...STRENGTH OF TROUGH/FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK.
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AS WELL...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES.
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT CONFLICTED IN TERMS OF HOW EVERYTHING PLAYS
OUT...WITH SOME GENERATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NAM/GFS KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN BEST
FORCING/INSTABILITY. IF ANYTHING DOES HAPPEN...THINK IT WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN-MOST SOLUTION IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT
GIVEN MODEL CONFLICTS...RELATIVELY DRY AIR...AND WEAK FORCING
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THIS TIME PERIOD
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW TO REMAIN NEAR HUDSON BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS WEST AND NORTH.
THIS LEAVES OUR AREA STUCK IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL PROVE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH ISSUES. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THESE DIFFERENCES AND AS A
RESULT THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS. PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE KEY IN
THE LONG TERM AND HAVE RELUCTANTLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND AND
INHERITED POPS MOST PERIODS FOR NOW WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY AND THESE SHORT WAVES. BEST CHANCES WILL COME WITH ANY
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVES THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE IN MEAN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
AS HEAT WILL BE CONFINED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTG THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHRTWV/CDFNT WILL DROP
SE FROM MANITOBA THIS EVE TO THE GRTLKS FRI EVE. LIMITED MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS AT
MOST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/EVE. WITH
CHANCES OF TS IMPACTING TERMINALS VERY LOW... DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 302337
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
737 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DRIFT EAST TONIGHT
CONTINUING TO PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING... POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND HIGHS FRIDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

ALOFT THE CWA IS UNDER RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW/WEAK TROUGHING...AS THE
AREA RESTS BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A CLOSED LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY. AT THE SFC...SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...WEATHER
WILL REMAIN SETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND WE LOSE
DAYTIME MIXING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A WEAK SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT...THOUGH A MAJORITY OF THE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS TO THE
NORTHEAST PER 850-500MB QVECTOR DIV. AT THE SFC...VERTICALLY STACKED
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH TO THE AREA. BY FRIDAY EVENING/AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WITH THE COLD FRONT IN ITS
WAKE...EXTENDING FROM NE LOWER MI...ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...AND
NORTHERN IL/IA. ON THE FENCE AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES FOR THE
EASTERN HALF LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE
TROUGH ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO INSTABILITY IS ABUNDANT/PER
ML CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. 0-6KM SHEAR IS IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE.
AS FAR AS THE NEGATIVES...STRENGTH OF TROUGH/FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK.
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AS WELL...WITH PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES.
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT CONFLICTED IN TERMS OF HOW EVERYTHING PLAYS
OUT...WITH SOME GENERATING PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. NAM/GFS KEEP
PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN BEST
FORCING/INSTABILITY. IF ANYTHING DOES HAPPEN...THINK IT WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE EASTERN-MOST SOLUTION IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME...BUT
GIVEN MODEL CONFLICTS...RELATIVELY DRY AIR...AND WEAK FORCING
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THIS TIME PERIOD
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW TO REMAIN NEAR HUDSON BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BUILDS WEST AND NORTH.
THIS LEAVES OUR AREA STUCK IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE SHORT WAVES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL PROVE DIFFICULT IN TERMS OF PCPN CHANCES WITH TIMING AND
STRENGTH ISSUES. MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THESE DIFFERENCES AND AS A
RESULT THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS. PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE KEY IN
THE LONG TERM AND HAVE RELUCTANTLY ACCEPTED SUPERBLEND AND
INHERITED POPS MOST PERIODS FOR NOW WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEARBY AND THESE SHORT WAVES. BEST CHANCES WILL COME WITH ANY
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVES THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE IN MEAN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
AS HEAT WILL BE CONFINED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH W-NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN VFR CONDITIONS CONTG THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SHRTWV/CDFNT WILL DROP
SE FROM MANITOBA THIS EVE TO THE GRTLKS FRI EVE. LIMITED MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM SO EXPECT ISOLATED TSTMS AT
MOST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRI AFTN/EVE. WITH
CHANCES OF TS IMPACTING TERMINALS VERY LOW... DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



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