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000
FXUS63 KIND 282322
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
722 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Low pressure over the upper midwest will move east across the northern
great lakes Sunday and trailing cold front will move across our region
late Sunday and Sunday evening.  High pressure will bring dry weather
Monday and early Tuesday.   An upper low will move towards the great
lakes by the middle of next week and a cold front will move across our
region around Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Water vapor satellite indicated plume of moisture from Mississippi and
Alabama north across our region.  Showers and thunderstorms were
beginning to develop across our region with day time heating and and
high resolution shows an increase of thunderstorms into the early
evening hour and then diminishing or ending most areas by late evening.

Will mention slight chance POPs west and chance POPS  east early this evening
and then thunderstorms ending most areas by midnight. Then a weak upper
disturbance may produce a few light showers late tonight.

Lows tonight will be in the middle 60s which is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Models have trended drier towards Sunday and most models indicate little if
any precipitation.  However with a cold front moving into our region late Sunday
prefer to keep low chance POPS in mainly Sunday afternoon and far east
Sunday evening.

After that weak high pressure will bring a period of dry weather later
Sunday night through early Tuesday.  The NAM and GFS models are quicker in spreading
precip our way late Monday and Tuesday.  I believe they are too quick given
that weak high pressure will be moving east across our region along with a
weak upper ridge.  New European keeps this next area of precipitation farther
west and will lean in that direction.  To match up with other offices will add
a slight chance of thunderstorms over northwest sections late Tuesday.  Otherwise...
the rest of the short term will be dry.

Models keep 850 MB temperatures in the lower to middle teens and with more sunshine
high temperatures will be a little warmer with highs in the middle 80s.  With
mostly clear skies and light winds lows will be in the lower 60s Sunday night and
lower to middle 60s Monday night.  In most cases stayed close to a MOS blend on
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Issued at 159 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

ECMWF continue to keeps the warm and humid air mass in place
across central Indiana through Thursday. Thus as superblend
suggests...kept low chance pops in place during that time to
account for diurnal showers and storms.

Best chances for rain look to be on Thursday afternoon and evening
as the ECMWF shows a cold front crossing Indiana from the
northwest. With ample moisture in place ahead of the
front...precipitation seems like a good bet here.

Superblend continued to keep low chance pops in the forecast on
Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF shows the cold front southeast of
Indiana at that time...along with subsidence in place along with a
cooler and dryer air mass in place amid NW flow. Therefore we
twiddled the pop grids down 5-10% to achieve a dry forecast then.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 290000z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 714 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

A brief light shower could move over KIND over the next hour but
this shouldn`t cause any flight reductions. Later tonight could
see some MVFR fog develop at the outlying sites after around 8-9z
with ample low level moisture available and winds dropping off to
around 5 kts or less. Some cloud cover should keep things from
dropping off too much. Hi res models are showing the line of
thunderstorms currently over Illinois and stretching south into
Missouri weakening and scattering out before it gets to Indiana
and as a result will leave this out. Will again have some chances
for thunderstorms Sunday especially during the afternoon ahead of
the cold frontal passage making it more likely at KIND and KBMG.
More likely in this case though still means a 30 percent chance or
less of hitting either site so will leave out for now. Forecast
soundings show some potential for wind gusts around 14-20 kts out
of the west generally in the wake of the frontal passage.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP



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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281740
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
140 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected in the
area this afternoon as a weak upper air disturbance moves through.
The shower activity will diminish tonight. A weak cold front will
move across the area Sunday bringing a renewed chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Fair weather is expected for Memorial Day as
high pressure builds in behind the front. Temperatures will remain
above normal with highs in the lower to middle 80s and lows in the
lower to middle 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

More of the same in the short term period as warm and moist airmass
remains in place with only subtle short waves providing any
mechanism for ascent. Satellite shows a subtle short wave lifting
north through central Indiana early this morning within modest theta
E axis. This has led to a few showers over central Indiana. Hires
models lift this area of pcpn north again today similar to
yesterday. Isolated showers and maybe an isolated tsra this morning
with these features. Atmosphere then becomes unstable again this
afternoon with CAPEs in the 2-3K J/kg range. Models continue to
develop afternoon convection and must once again include low chance
pops given instability and potential for weak short wave. Slightly
better moisture axis shifts eastward today and models indicating
best potential for convection to be in the east. Loss of diurnal
heating tonight will diminish most convection. Focus will shift back
west late as slightly stronger short wave and surface cold front
begin to approach. High temps today will again be in the 80s
with mid 80s possible again depending on amount of clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Upper low expected to lift northeast into the western Great Lakes on
Sunday while dampening. Associated weak surface cold front will move
across the area. Weak low level convergence coupled with afternoon
CAPE values of 2-3K j/kg and 0-6km bulk shear around 30 knots could
allow for a few strong to severe storms. Timing suggest eastern
areas but models not overly aggressive with convective development.
Maintained low to mid chance pops with highest in the east during
the afternoon. Drying and subsidence then work in and should see a
nice Memorial Day with lower dew points...though a few models
bringing some additional moisture back in later Monday.

Another upper low expected to drop into northern plains next week
with a similar setup of broad moisture plume and weak forcing
ahead of it. This low looks a bit more progressive across the
northern tier of states. Stronger short wave moves through
Thursday with cooler and drier air possible by friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Sct shra and a few ts expected to develop this aftn as a wk
shrtwv moves rapidly ne from the lwr/mid MS Valley across IN. A
little strong shrtwv expected to move fm w-e across the area
Sunday, but decreasing moisture in advance of the system supports
not adding shra/ts mention to tafs attm. Otrws, vfr conditions
should cont with moderately strong southerly flow grdly veering to
west on Sunday.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...JT


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000
FXUS63 KIND 281705
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
105 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

A warm and humid air mass will persist across the region through the
weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of
upper waves pass through the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will end once
a weakening cold front passes through on Sunday...with less humid
weather for Monday and Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms will return
to central Indiana by mid week as a storm system tracks through the
region. Cooler and drier conditions are expected by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /rest of Today/...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

.UPDATE...Only minor tweaks made to grids mainly to raise POPS to 50
percent across the eastern half of our region where the deepest
moisture will be. High res model shows an increase in showers and
storms this afternoon as it moves north northeast across our region.
Otherwise...the remainder of the near term is on track.

Portion of previous near term discussion follows...
The Ohio Valley will remain entrenched within a moist southwest flow
aloft as a stubborn upper low over the central plains this morning
lifts northeast through the course of the day. Weak and poorly
defined perturbations aloft continue to eject out from the upper low
and lift into the area and will once again serve to offer forcing
for convective development today...especially this afternoon during
peak heating.

Deeper moisture advecting into the region courtesy of stronger low
level flow helping to generate the isolated activity early this
morning. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out with
mesoanalysis indicating subtle instability present...but overall
primarily anticipating showers through mid morning. Slightly
stronger wave aloft poised to lift into the Ohio Valley this
afternoon and with the airmass becoming more unstable with
heating...expect more of a convective component over the forecast
area with scattered thunderstorms developing. Primary focus for
greatest convective coverage likely to align over the eastern half
of the forecast area where axis of deeper moisture will reside...but
chance pops are warranted over all of central Indiana this
afternoon. With boundary layer shear lacking...expect convection to
remain largely disorganized later today with brief heavy downpours
as the main impact.

Temps...Expect less sunshine than Friday for most as model soundings
and RH progs showing a lot of potential for clouds through the
course of the day.  This will serve to keep max temps cooler than
Friday...with low level thermals supporting highs generally in the
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Forecast challenges focus on convective chances through Sunday
followed by drier weather for Memorial Day as weak high pressure
arrives.

The aforementioned upper low will become slowly absorbed into the
mean flow aloft on Sunday as it tracks east across the Great Lakes.
The remnant wave aloft will enhance lift across the region and
combine with a weakening cold front to provide another round for
scattered convection during the afternoon and evening Sunday. Strong
surface heating will produce a modestly unstable airmass with
steepening lapse rates as cooler and drier air in the mid levels
arrives Despite weak low level flow and boundary layer shear...the
frontal boundary and wave aloft should support potential for more
organized and stronger convection in a multicellular mode.
Thermodynamic profiles suggestive of gusty wind and hail potential
with stronger cells. Timing differences still exist between various
models...but chance pops remain warranted and focused during the
second half of the afternoon into the evening as the front tracks
across the area.

Drier air will overspread the region Sunday night as weak surface
ridging reestablishes and the weakening wave aloft departs off to
the east. A dry and slightly less humid airmass will settle into the
Ohio Valley for Memorial Day and Monday night with the surface ridge
in control over the area and slowly rising heights aloft.

Temps...Warm weather will continue across the region through the
short term. Low level thermals remain supportive of highs rising
into the mid 80s both Sunday and Monday for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

During the long term, an upper trough will move into the area. A
surface frontal system will also move through. The result will be
rain chances through most of the period.

The GFS appears to be well overdoing rain chances early in the
period given expected forcing at that time. Its influence on
SuperBlend requires cutting back on SuperBlend`s PoPs on Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures early in the period will give way to near
to slightly below normal values by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /discussion for the 281800z tafs/...

Issued at 105 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

VFR conditions expected much of this taf period. Brief MVFR
conditions will be possible late this afternoon and early evening
within any TSRA that may strike a TAF site.

Rapid Refresh continues to suggest convective development...mainly
during the peak heating hours of 20Z-01z. Thus have used VCTS for
now along with a TEMPO group for thunder during this most
favorable period.

Any spots that get rain...particularly the more rural taf sites
will be favorable for MVFR diurnal fog in the morning given the
expected lingering lower level moisture and small dew point
depressions.

CU rule is negative on sunday morning and low level moisture
lingers. Used VFR CIGS to cover this situation.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 281339
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
940 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Near term for the rest of today has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

A warm and humid air mass will persist across the region through the
weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of
upper waves pass through the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will end once
a weakening cold front passes through on Sunday...with less humid
weather for Monday and Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms will return
to central Indiana by mid week as a storm system tracks through the
region. Cooler and drier conditions are expected by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /rest of Today/...
Issued at 940 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

.UPDATE...Only minor tweaks made to grids mainly to raise POPS to 50
percent across the eastern half of our region where the deepest
moisture will be. High res model shows an increase in showers and
storms this afternoon as it moves north northeast across our region.
Otherwise...the remainder of the near term is on track.

Portion of previous near term discussion follows...
The Ohio Valley will remain entrenched within a moist southwest flow
aloft as a stubborn upper low over the central plains this morning
lifts northeast through the course of the day. Weak and poorly
defined perturbations aloft continue to eject out from the upper low
and lift into the area and will once again serve to offer forcing
for convective development today...especially this afternoon during
peak heating.

Deeper moisture advecting into the region courtesy of stronger low
level flow helping to generate the isolated activity early this
morning. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out with
mesoanalysis indicating subtle instability present...but overall
primarily anticipating showers through mid morning. Slightly
stronger wave aloft poised to lift into the Ohio Valley this
afternoon and with the airmass becoming more unstable with
heating...expect more of a convective component over the forecast
area with scattered thunderstorms developing. Primary focus for
greatest convective coverage likely to align over the eastern half
of the forecast area where axis of deeper moisture will reside...but
chance pops are warranted over all of central Indiana this
afternoon. With boundary layer shear lacking...expect convection to
remain largely disorganized later today with brief heavy downpours
as the main impact.

Temps...Expect less sunshine than Friday for most as model soundings
and RH progs showing a lot of potential for clouds through the
course of the day.  This will serve to keep max temps cooler than
Friday...with low level thermals supporting highs generally in the
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Forecast challenges focus on convective chances through Sunday
followed by drier weather for Memorial Day as weak high pressure
arrives.

The aforementioned upper low will become slowly absorbed into the
mean flow aloft on Sunday as it tracks east across the Great Lakes.
The remnant wave aloft will enhance lift across the region and
combine with a weakening cold front to provide another round for
scattered convection during the afternoon and evening Sunday. Strong
surface heating will produce a modestly unstable airmass with
steepening lapse rates as cooler and drier air in the mid levels
arrives Despite weak low level flow and boundary layer shear...the
frontal boundary and wave aloft should support potential for more
organized and stronger convection in a multicellular mode.
Thermodynamic profiles suggestive of gusty wind and hail potential
with stronger cells. Timing differences still exist between various
models...but chance pops remain warranted and focused during the
second half of the afternoon into the evening as the front tracks
across the area.

Drier air will overspread the region Sunday night as weak surface
ridging reestablishes and the weakening wave aloft departs off to
the east. A dry and slightly less humid airmass will settle into the
Ohio Valley for Memorial Day and Monday night with the surface ridge
in control over the area and slowly rising heights aloft.

Temps...Warm weather will continue across the region through the
short term. Low level thermals remain supportive of highs rising
into the mid 80s both Sunday and Monday for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

During the long term, an upper trough will move into the area. A
surface frontal system will also move through. The result will be
rain chances through most of the period.

The GFS appears to be well overdoing rain chances early in the
period given expected forcing at that time. Its influence on
SuperBlend requires cutting back on SuperBlend`s PoPs on Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures early in the period will give way to near
to slightly below normal values by Friday.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 281200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Outside of convection, VFR conditions expected. Winds will become
gusty this afternoon.

While an isolated shower cannot be ruled out this morning, it
appears that the sites will likely remain dry with mainly mid cloud
around.

This afternoon winds will gust near 20kt. Instability will build and
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. At the moment
believe coverage will be enough to use a VCTS mention for a few
hours during peak heating.

Convection will then diminish and winds will decrease. &&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50




000
FXUS63 KIND 281036
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
636 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

A warm and humid airmass will persist across the region through the
weekend with chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of
upper waves pass through the Ohio Valley. Rain chances will end once
a weakening cold front passes through on Sunday...with less humid
weather for Monday and Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms will return
to central Indiana by mid week as a storm system tracks through the
region. Cooler and drier conditions are expected by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Moist southerly flow continues across the region early this
morning with clouds increasing. Isolated brief downpours lifting
north across southern counties on the leading edge of an area of
higher precipitable water. Warm and humid conditions persist with
07Z temps ranging from the upper 60s to the mid 70s.

The Ohio Valley will remain entrenched within a moist southwest flow
aloft as a stubborn upper low over the central plains this morning
lifts northeast through the course of the day. Weak and poorly
defined perturbations aloft continue to eject out from the upper low
and lift into the area and will once again serve to offer forcing
for convective development today...especially this afternoon during
peak heating.

Deeper moisture advecting into the region courtesy of stronger low
level flow helping to generate the isolated activity early this
morning. A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out with
mesoanalysis indicating subtle instability present...but overall
primarily anticipating showers through mid morning. Slightly
stronger wave aloft poised to lift into the Ohio Valley this
afternoon and with the airmass becoming more unstable with
heating...expect more of a convective component over the forecast
area with scattered thunderstorms developing. Primary focus for
greatest convective coverage likely to align over the eastern half
of the forecast area where axis of deeper moisture will reside...but
chance pops are warranted over all of central Indiana this
afternoon. With boundary layer shear lacking...expect convection to
remain largely disorganized later today with brief heavy downpours
as the main impact.

Temps...Expect less sunshine than Friday for most as model soundings
and RH progs showing a lot of potential for clouds through the
course of the day.  This will serve to keep max temps cooler than
Friday...with low level thermals supporting highs generally in the
lower 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Forecast challenges focus on convective chances through Sunday
followed by drier weather for Memorial Day as weak high pressure
arrives.

The aforementioned upper low will become slowly absorbed into the
mean flow aloft on Sunday as it tracks east across the Great Lakes.
The remnant wave aloft will enhance lift across the region and
combine with a weakening cold front to provide another round for
scattered convection during the afternoon and evening Sunday. Strong
surface heating will produce a modestly unstable airmass with
steepening lapse rates as cooler and drier air in the mid levels
arrives Despite weak low level flow and boundary layer shear...the
frontal boundary and wave aloft should support potential for more
organized and stronger convection in a multicellular mode.
Thermodynamic profiles suggestive of gusty wind and hail potential
with stronger cells. Timing differences still exist between various
models...but chance pops remain warranted and focused during the
second half of the afternoon into the evening as the front tracks
across the area.

Drier air will overspread the region Sunday night as weak surface
ridging reestablishes and the weakening wave aloft departs off to
the east. A dry and slightly less humid airmass will settle into the
Ohio Valley for Memorial Day and Monday night with the surface ridge
in control over the area and slowly rising heights aloft.

Temps...Warm weather will continue across the region through the
short term. Low level thermals remain supportive of highs rising
into the mid 80s both Sunday and Monday for most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

During the long term, an upper trough will move into the area. A
surface frontal system will also move through. The result will be
rain chances through most of the period.

The GFS appears to be well overdoing rain chances early in the
period given expected forcing at that time. Its influence on
SuperBlend requires cutting back on SuperBlend`s PoPs on Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures early in the period will give way to near
to slightly below normal values by Friday.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 281200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Outside of convection, VFR conditions expected. Winds will become
gusty this afternoon.

While an isolated shower cannot be ruled out this morning, it
appears that the sites will likely remain dry with mainly mid cloud
around.

This afternoon winds will gust near 20kt. Instability will build and
scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop. At the moment
believe coverage will be enough to use a VCTS mention for a few
hours during peak heating.

Convection will then diminish and winds will decrease. &&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50




000
FXUS63 KIND 280631
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
231 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A strong upper ridge of high pressure along the U.S. east coast will
keep us in a summer like pattern until late next week.   A series of
weak upper disturbances will bring chances of thunderstorms through
the weekend as they move across our region.

High pressure will bring dry weather Monday and Tuesday.  An upper low
moving towards the great lakes will bring a chance of thunderstorms
again from the middle of next week on...along with slightly cooler
temperatures late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 957 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

UPDATE...
Current radar mosaic shows scattered showers and thunderstorms
tracking across western portions of Central Indiana as mentioned
in previous forecast. As a result, minimal changes. Current temps
across the area are ranging from the low to upper 70s and are
still expected to only drop into the upper 60s overnight. Updated
grids have been sent.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Water vapor satellite indicated a strong upper ridge along the
east coast while an upper low was over eastern Colorado. So far it
has been pretty quiet across Indiana today...but an upper
disturbance moving into the lower Mississippi valley was producing
scattered to numerous thunderstorms over lower and middle
Mississippi valley this afternoon.

Some of these thunderstorms may spread into western and central parts of our
region by late evening as an upper disturbance moves our way.  Will mention
a chance of thunderstorms from INDY and westward towards midnight and a
slight chance of storms elsewhere as an disturbance passes by.

Given that there is no change of air mass lows tonight should again
be in the lower to middle 60s which is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Forecast focus continue to be rain chances over the weekend as a couple
of weak upper disturbances move from the southern and central plains
towards the great lakes.  Air mass will remain moist and unstable
over the weekend and in addition models move a weak cold front our
way Sunday. Models indicate thunderstorms will be partially diurnal
and will mention chance POPS Saturday afternoon and Sunday and
slight chance POPS most other periods through Sunday evening.

After that will go dry as drier air and weak high pressure builds
into our region late Sunday night and Monday.

There will be a bit more clouds which may limit temperatures
Saturday.  But overall highs will be in the lower to middle 80s all
3 days while lows will be in the middle to upper 60s over the
weekend and lower 60s Monday morning.

&&


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...
Issued at 231 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

During the long term, an upper trough will move into the area. A
surface frontal system will also move through. The result will be
rain chances through most of the period.

The GFS appears to be well overdoing rain chances early in the
period given expected forcing at that time. Its influence on
SuperBlend requires cutting back on SuperBlend`s PoPs on Tuesday.

Above normal temperatures early in the period will give way to near
to slightly below normal values by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 280600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1230 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Starting to see a few weak echoes in central Indiana and hi res
output suggest this will increase for the next few hours. Included a
VCSH for this, but with the weaker looking echoes and unimpressive
moisture in the time heights will not include any category
reductions. After around 14-16z forecast soundings show wind gusts
of 20-25 kts developing out of 180-210 and continuing through around
sunset. Could see some scattered thunderstorm development during the
afternoon as well. Confidence on timing/placement is still fairly
low, but parameters look a little better than they have the past
couple of days so will bring in a prob30 after 19z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 271905
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Synopsis...near term and short term sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

A strong upper ridge of high pressure along the U.S. east coast will
keep us in a summer like pattern until late next week.   A series of
weak upper disturbances will bring chances of thunderstorms through
the weekend as they move across our region.

High pressure will bring dry weather Monday and Tuesday.  An upper low
moving towards the great lakes will bring a chance of thunderstorms
again from the middle of next week on...along with slightly cooler
temperatures late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

water vapor satellite indicated a strong upper ridge along the east coast
while an upper low was over eastern Colorado.  So far it has been pretty
quiet across Indiana today...but an upper disturbance moving into the
lower Mississippi valley was producing scattered to numerous thunderstorms
over lower and middle Mississippi valley this afternoon.

Some of these thunderstorms may spread into western and central parts of our
region by late evening as an upper disturbance moves our way.  Will mention
a chance of thunderstorms from INDY and westward towards midnight and a
slight chance of storms elsewhere as an disturbance passes by.

Given that there is no change of air mass lows tonight should again be in the
lower to middle 60s which is close to a MOS blend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Saturday through Monday/...
Issued at 306 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Forecast focus continue to be rain chances over the weekend as a couple
of weak upper disturbances move from the southern and central plains
towards the great lakes.  Air mass will remain moist and unstable over
the weekend and in addition models move a weak cold front our way Sunday.
Models indicate thunderstorms will be partially diurnal and will mention
chance POPS Saturday afternoon and Sunday and slight chance POPS most other
periods through Sunday evening.

After that will go dry as drier air and weak high pressure builds into our region
late Sunday night and Monday.

There will be a bit more clouds which may limit temperatures Saturday.  But overall
highs will be in the lower to middle 80s all 3 days while lows will be in the
middle to upper 60s over the weekend and lower 60s Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/...
Issued at 229 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Timing of the thunderstorms will be the main focus next week.

Ensembles suggest a cold front will move across central Indiana
Midweek followed by an upper trough late week. This should result in
more thunderstorm chances by Tuesday night after a dry start to the
week.

Temperatures will start off above normal and then slide back to
seasonable late in the week. This is reflected with the regional
blend.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 271800Z IND TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VFR conditions expected in the TAF period with just some diurnal cu
around 4k feet below higher clouds. The exception could be at mainly
LAF and HUF...where a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening. With confidence in coverage of any pop ups...only went
with VCTS through 06z at LAF and HUF an no mention at IND and BMG.
Will take a last minute look...however in case any adjustments need
to be made.

Winds will be south near 10 knots this afternoon and a few knots
lighter tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 271829
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
229 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Summer conditions will persist across central Indiana through the
holiday weekend and into next week with highs mainly in the 80s and
a humid airmass. Daily chances for storms will exist through the
weekend as weak upper level waves track through the Ohio Valley.
After a period with drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday...
chances for storms will return by midweek as a storms system tracks
through the Upper Midwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 943 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

.UPDATE...Only minor tweaks made to previous grids.  Area of showers and
thunderstorms over southern Illinois should move north northeast and possibly
brushing the far northwest part of our region later today.  Otherwise...
only expect isolated thunderstorms.  Lowered POPS slightly some areas.
But overall previous forecast is on track.

Portion of previous near term discussion follows...
Warm front moving north through the region combining with weak mid
level perturbations in the southwest flow will serve as primary
catalysts in potential for isolated to scattered convection
developing in the moist and unstable airmass. Lack of more
substantial forcing aloft and presence of a mid level cap will be
limiting factors in convective coverage...with model soundings and
RH progs both hinting at mid level drying advecting north into the
region by this afternoon.

Primary focus for scattered storms setting up over western counties
in closer proximity to deeper moisture plume and the enhanced 850mb
flow aligning across the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Will
carry highest pops here this morning as the warm front lifts north
and again this afternoon as scattered convection develops in the
unstable airmass. Further east...the limiting factors mentioned
above support only low chance pops with any convection remaining
isolated.

Temps...Despite the convective cloud debris slowing warming early in
the day...should see some sun through the course of the day with
warmer METMOS guidance being supported by low level thermals. Expect
a muggy day with highs rising into the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Forecast challenges focus on continued convective chances throughout
much of the period as waves aloft interact with a moist and unstable
airmass across central Indiana.

Upper low centered over the High Plains will wobble northeast into
the Upper Midwest and then into western Ontario by late weekend.
Dirty southwest flow pattern aloft as multiple weak waves will
continue to eject out from the upper low and lift northeast across
the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. As these waves interact with
the unstable air across the region...opportunities will exist for
isolated to scattered convection through Sunday.

As is often the case in these setups...models having all sorts
of difficulty timing the individual waves aloft creating a low
confidence forecast in timing convective impacts for the forecast
area. At this point...best chances for storms appear for Saturday
and Sunday afternoons during peak heating. Bulk of the stronger
forcing aloft remains to the west of the forecast area on
Saturday...but presence of deeper moisture and surge of slightly
better mid level lapse rates supports chance pops across the
forecast area.

Strongest wave aloft impacts the region on Sunday as a more
pronounced upper trough swings through the lower Great Lakes with a
weakening cold front tracking east. Cooler and drier air in the mid
levels associated with the upper wave will support steepening lapse
rates over the area which should present a better and slightly more
organized convective potential during the afternoon and early
evening in vicinity of the cold front. With that being said...
weaker low level flow will limit coverage to storms. Still plenty of
details to work out but higher chance pops certainly appear
warranted for the afternoon and evening Sunday. Drier air will
overspread the region Sunday night as weak high pressure builds in.

Temps...Low level thermals generally supported MOS guidance for
highs Saturday and Sunday. More clouds should keep temps down
slightly on Saturday with Sunday being the warmer day ahead of the
weak cold front. Overall...expect a muggy summer-like holiday
weekend with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Night Through Friday/...
Issued at 229 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Timing of the thunderstorms will be the main focus next week.

Ensembles suggest a cold front will move across central Indiana
Midweek followed by an upper trough late week. This should result in
more thunderstorm chances by Tuesday night after a dry start to the
week.

Temperatures will start off above normal and then slide back to
seasonable late in the week. This is reflected with the regional
blend.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 271800Z IND TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1226 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

VFR conditions expected in the TAF period with just some diurnal cu
around 4k feet below higher clouds. The exception could be at mainly
LAF and HUF...where a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening. With confidence in coverage of any pop ups...only went
with VCTS through 06z at LAF and HUF an no mention at IND and BMG.
Will take a last minute look...however in case any adjustments need
to be made.

Winds will be south near 10 knots this afternoon and a few knots
lighter tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271704
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
105 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

High pressure will remain nearly stationary over the southeastern
U.S. causing warm moist conditions across our area through the
Memorial Day weekend. Temperatures will remain well above normal
with highs in the lower or middle 80s and lows in the 60s. A low
chance of mainly afternoon through early evening thunderstorms
will continue into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Deep southerly flow to continue over the region today with abundant
moisture but a lack of strong forcing for ascent. Water vapor and IR
imagery showing numerous weak MCVs embedded within widespread
convection and debris cloudiness across the Midwest. Spectral models
continue to struggle with convective details given more coarse
resolution and convective models remain overdone at times. Weak flow
and lack of strong short wave makes for difficult forecast with
respect to when and where thunderstorms will develop.

Regional radar mosaic showing area of showers moving northeast from
southern IL and IN at 08z. HRRR has a decent handle on this area and
brings it into far southwest around 12z with decaying/weakening
trends as it lifts north. Have middle range chance pops for this
area. Instability again shown by models to be in the 1500-2500 j/kg
range this afternoon. concern that debris cloudiness may be more
extensive today and may not see as much afternoon sun as on
Thursday. Continued with a low to mid chance pop this afternoon with
convective models again showing some development. Highs today should
still reach lower 80s with muggy conditions as sfc dewpoints remain
in the mid 60s. Lingering low chance pops tonight in the west with
deep moisture feed and any weak MCV could easily set off a few
storms. Lows will remain in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 403 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Thunderstorm chances continue Saturday and Sunday as deep southwest
flow continues to pump moisture into the region. A few weak short
waves Saturday but stronger wave appears in the models for Sunday as
upper low lifts through the western Great Lakes and stronger short
wave lifts northeast over our area. 0-6km shear increases and
potential CAPES of 2k j/kg or greater if we partially clear. Will
see how this plays out as models have yet to impress in this regime.

Brief period of drying and subsidence appears likely for Memorial
Day behind departing short wave and building heights. This in part
to blocky pattern with tropical/subtropical low meandering over the
Carolinas as downstream ridging develops. Thunderstorm chances
return mid week as moisture plume returns in southwest flow as
another low moves across the northern CONUS.

Highs generally in the lower 80s during the period with lows in the
60s. Temps will trend a few degrees cooler by mid to end of week
with dew points also back into the 50s making it a bit more
comfortable.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Band of light showers resulting from weak disturbance lifting
northward through the area continues to weaken and is now north of
both TAF sites. Another wave moving up through central Illinois this
afternoon may have showers redeveloping in the KSBN vicinity so
will include a 3 hour window of VCSH to account for this. Otherwise
VFR through the period on south/southwest winds generally 10kts
or less.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lashley
SHORT TERM...Lashley
LONG TERM...Lashley
AVIATION...Logsdon


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000
FXUS63 KIND 271033
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
633 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Summer conditions will persist across central Indiana through the
holiday weekend and into next week with highs mainly in the 80s and
a humid airmass. Daily chances for storms will exist through the
weekend as weak upper level waves track through the Ohio Valley.
After a period with drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday...
chances for storms will return by midweek as a storms system tracks
through the Upper Midwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Drier airmass has briefly worked into parts of the forecast area
early this morning...but isolated convection beginning to form over
the lower Wabash Valley ahead of a warm front draped across the
lower Ohio Valley and aided by subtle enhanced flow at 850mb. 07Z
temps were mainly in the mid and upper 60s.

Warm front moving north through the region combining with weak mid
level perturbations in the southwest flow will serve as primary
catalysts in potential for isolated to scattered convection
developing in the moist and unstable airmass. Lack of more
substantial forcing aloft and presence of a mid level cap will be
limiting factors in convective coverage...with model soundings and
RH progs both hinting at mid level drying advecting north into the
region by this afternoon.

Primary focus for scattered storms setting up over western counties
in closer proximity to deeper moisture plume and the enhanced 850mb
flow aligning across the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Will
carry highest pops here this morning as the warm front lifts north
and again this afternoon as scattered convection develops in the
unstable airmass. Further east...the limiting factors mentioned
above support only low chance pops with any convection remaining
isolated.

Temps...Despite the convective cloud debris slowing warming early in
the day...should see some sun through the course of the day with
warmer METMOS guidance being supported by low level thermals. Expect
a muggy day with highs rising into the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Forecast challenges focus on continued convective chances throughout
much of the period as waves aloft interact with a moist and unstable
airmass across central Indiana.

Upper low centered over the High Plains will wobble northeast into
the Upper Midwest and then into western Ontario by late weekend.
Dirty southwest flow pattern aloft as multiple weak waves will
continue to eject out from the upper low and lift northeast across
the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. As these waves interact with
the unstable air across the region...opportunities will exist for
isolated to scattered convection through Sunday.

As is often the case in these setups...models having all sorts
of difficulty timing the individual waves aloft creating a low
confidence forecast in timing convective impacts for the forecast
area. At this point...best chances for storms appear for Saturday
and Sunday afternoons during peak heating. Bulk of the stronger
forcing aloft remains to the west of the forecast area on
Saturday...but presence of deeper moisture and surge of slightly
better mid level lapse rates supports chance pops across the
forecast area.

Strongest wave aloft impacts the region on Sunday as a more
pronounced upper trough swings through the lower Great Lakes with a
weakening cold front tracking east. Cooler and drier air in the mid
levels associated with the upper wave will support steepening lapse
rates over the area which should present a better and slightly more
organized convective potential during the afternoon and early
evening in vicinity of the cold front. With that being said...
weaker low level flow will limit coverage to storms. Still plenty of
details to work out but higher chance pops certainly appear
warranted for the afternoon and evening Sunday. Drier air will
overspread the region Sunday night as weak high pressure builds in.

Temps...Low level thermals generally supported MOS guidance for
highs Saturday and Sunday. More clouds should keep temps down
slightly on Saturday with Sunday being the warmer day ahead of the
weak cold front. Overall...expect a muggy summer-like holiday
weekend with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

High pressure should keep the area dry on Memorial Day and most of
the area dry on Tuesday. However, a surface system and an
approaching upper trough will bring a return of shower and
thunderstorm chances Tuesday night through Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to be above average through the period.

&&


.AVIATION (Discussion for the 271200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 633 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Outside of convection, VFR conditions expected through the period.

Area of scattered showers should be just north of the TAF sites by
valid time.

Additional scattered convection is possible anytime today, but
especially in the afternoon. (Widespread convection should remain
west of the area.) Feel that expected coverage will be low enough to
leave out mention in the TAFs.

So far MVFR fog has not materialized, so unless it does soon, will
leave out of TAFs this morning. Otherwise expect mainly mid and high
level clouds this period. Winds will gust over 15kt this afternoon.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50




000
FXUS63 KIND 270742
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
342 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM and SHORT TERM Sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Summer conditions will persist across central Indiana through the
holiday weekend and into next week with highs mainly in the 80s and
a humid airmass. Daily chances for storms will exist through the
weekend as weak upper level waves track through the Ohio Valley.
After a period with drier conditions for Monday and Tuesday...
chances for storms will return by midweek as a storms system tracks
through the Upper Midwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Drier airmass has briefly worked into parts of the forecast area
early this morning...but isolated convection beginning to form over
the lower Wabash Valley ahead of a warm front draped across the
lower Ohio Valley and aided by subtle enhanced flow at 850mb. 07Z
temps were mainly in the mid and upper 60s.

Warm front moving north through the region combining with weak mid
level perturbations in the southwest flow will serve as primary
catalysts in potential for isolated to scattered convection
developing in the moist and unstable airmass. Lack of more
substantial forcing aloft and presence of a mid level cap will be
limiting factors in convective coverage...with model soundings and
RH progs both hinting at mid level drying advecting north into the
region by this afternoon.

Primary focus for scattered storms setting up over western counties
in closer proximity to deeper moisture plume and the enhanced 850mb
flow aligning across the lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Will
carry highest pops here this morning as the warm front lifts north
and again this afternoon as scattered convection develops in the
unstable airmass. Further east...the limiting factors mentioned
above support only low chance pops with any convection remaining
isolated.

Temps...Despite the convective cloud debris slowing warming early in
the day...should see some sun through the course of the day with
warmer METMOS guidance being supported by low level thermals. Expect
a muggy day with highs rising into the 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...
Issued at 342 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Forecast challenges focus on continued convective chances throughout
much of the period as waves aloft interact with a moist and unstable
airmass across central Indiana.

Upper low centered over the High Plains will wobble northeast into
the Upper Midwest and then into western Ontario by late weekend.
Dirty southwest flow pattern aloft as multiple weak waves will
continue to eject out from the upper low and lift northeast across
the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes. As these waves interact with
the unstable air across the region...opportunities will exist for
isolated to scattered convection through Sunday.

As is often the case in these setups...models having all sorts
of difficulty timing the individual waves aloft creating a low
confidence forecast in timing convective impacts for the forecast
area. At this point...best chances for storms appear for Saturday
and Sunday afternoons during peak heating. Bulk of the stronger
forcing aloft remains to the west of the forecast area on
Saturday...but presence of deeper moisture and surge of slightly
better mid level lapse rates supports chance pops across the
forecast area.

Strongest wave aloft impacts the region on Sunday as a more
pronounced upper trough swings through the lower Great Lakes with a
weakening cold front tracking east. Cooler and drier air in the mid
levels associated with the upper wave will support steepening lapse
rates over the area which should present a better and slightly more
organized convective potential during the afternoon and early
evening in vicinity of the cold front. With that being said...
weaker low level flow and boundary layer shear will limit coverage
and intensity to storms. Still plenty of details to work out but
higher chance pops certainly appear warranted for the afternoon and
evening Sunday. Drier air will overspread the region Sunday night as
weak high pressure builds in.

Temps...Low level thermals generally supported MOS guidance for
highs Saturday and Sunday. More clouds should keep temps down
slightly on Saturday with Sunday being the warmer day ahead of the
weak cold front. Overall...expect a muggy summer-like holiday
weekend with highs mainly in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

High pressure should keep the area dry on Memorial Day and most of
the area dry on Tuesday. However, a surface system and an
approaching upper trough will bring a return of shower and
thunderstorm chances Tuesday night through Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to be above average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 270600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1231 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Mid and high cloud should continue through the overnight. With the
rainfall today providing some soil moisture and not much sunshine
afterward could see some patchy MVFR fog develop at the outlying
sites late, but don`t expect anything worse than that given the
cloud cover and winds not completely dropping off. Upstream radar
mosaic shows showers and thunderstorms over western Illinois and
Kentucky that may hold together to impact the sites around 10-12z,
but still a lot of uncertainty on whether or not they will again
split to the north and south of the sites leaving them dry. Too much
uncertainty regarding any thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon to
include at this time also. Forecast soundings indicate some wind
gust potential during the afternoon with gusts of 16 to 20 kts out
of 180-200. Those gusts should subside by around sunset.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 270639
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
239 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

High pressure along the east coast will keep us under a warm
southerly flow through the middle of next week.  An upper trough
over the the western U.S. will move to the central plains by
Saturday and across the Great Lakes Sunday.  This in combination
with a humid air mass will keep us with low daily thunderstorm
chances through the weekend.

High pressure will bring dry conditions Monday and Tuesday and
another system will bring another round of thunderstorms around the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...

Issued at 949 PM EDT Thu May 26 2016

UPDATE...
Current radar mosaic is showing some light returns across the
southwestern counties...so light rain showers cannot be ruled out
over that area. Otherwise, the lull in activity continues this
evening and should continue until after midnight when a
disturbance approaches the Mid Mississippi Valley. Radar is
already more active across western and southern Illinois at this
time. As far as temps, increased overnight lows by a degree to
match current trends. Projected lows are expected to be in the mid
to upper 60s. Updated grids have been sent.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
The rapid refresh model indicates little if any re-development
through 08Z and with the air mass somewhat stabilized by the
earlier convection will keep everything dry until late tonight.

After that will bring 30 Percent POPS into western sections by 20
percent POPS elsewhere towards morning as a weak upper disturbance
moves into the middle Mississippi valley by Friday.

Models and MOS data indicates low temperatures in the middle to
upper 60s which is what they were last night and seems reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 330 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

Models move a series of weak waves from the plains to the western great lakes
with the strongest one moving into the great lakes by Sunday.
Given a humid airmass and some uncertainty in timing will mention 30
percent POPS west Friday and 20 percent elsewhere and 20 percent POPS all
areas Friday night.

There could be slightly better rain chances over the weekend mainly
Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  However confidence of exact timing is
low as models show better chances west of us Saturday and more to our
east Sunday.   For now will lean towards 40 percent POPS most areas
Saturday and Sunday afternoon and continue 20 percent POPS most areas
Friday and Saturday night.

Highs will be in the middle 80s Friday and lower to middle 80s over
the weekend with a little more clouds.  Lows will be in the upper 60s
both Friday and Saturday night.  Raised temperatures slightly FRiday

Raised temperatures slightly Friday as there should be more sun then.
Otherwise...stayed close to a MOS blend of temperatures most other
periods.

&&


.LONG TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...
Issued at 239 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Models are close enough that the SuperBlend initialization was
accepted for most items.

High pressure should keep the area dry on Memorial Day and most of
the area dry on Tuesday. However, a surface system and an
approaching upper trough will bring a return of shower and
thunderstorm chances Tuesday night through Thursday.

Temperatures will continue to be above average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 270600z TAF issuance/...

Issued at 1231 AM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Mid and high cloud should continue through the overnight. With the
rainfall today providing some soil moisture and not much sunshine
afterward could see some patchy MVFR fog develop at the outlying
sites late, but don`t expect anything worse than that given the
cloud cover and winds not completely dropping off. Upstream radar
mosaic shows showers and thunderstorms over western Illinois and
Kentucky that may hold together to impact the sites around 10-12z,
but still a lot of uncertainty on whether or not they will again
split to the north and south of the sites leaving them dry. Too much
uncertainty regarding any thunderstorm chances Friday afternoon to
include at this time also. Forecast soundings indicate some wind
gust potential during the afternoon with gusts of 16 to 20 kts out
of 180-200. Those gusts should subside by around sunset.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CP




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