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000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 181423
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ADDED EAST WINDS TO 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...TWEAKED CIRRUS HEIGHT
AND COVERAGE AND BROUGHT IN SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 181355
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181355
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 928 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS IN PLACE OVER OHIO LATE THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LOW WAS FOUND OVER COLORADO...WITH A STREAM OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

ONGOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE OF THE ONGOING SITUATION. HIGH
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STREAMS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 70S APPEAR QUITE REACHABLE.
THUS WILL EXPECT A FEW CU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 181142
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
742 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181142
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
742 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181142
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
742 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 181142
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
742 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR
WELL INTO TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START
BETWEEN THE SUN 09-12Z TIME FRAME...THAT IS WHEN CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TO MVFR CATEGORY. AS RAIN BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD...
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO IFR CATEGORY AT KIND AROUND SUN 15Z.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THIS EVENING TO 12 TO 14 KTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 181002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATE...
REMOVED MENTION OF FOG FROM KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 181002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPDATE...
REMOVED MENTION OF FOG FROM KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIWX 180956
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
556 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM DAY TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ONE MORE BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON TAP BEFORE RAIN RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS. GFS CP SCHEME CONTINUES TO IGNITE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...TIED TO SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IN A VERY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 100-200 J/KG SBCAPE IS PREDICATED
ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH MAY BE DIFFICULT GIVEN
SLOW GREENUP AND ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME NONZERO
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE BUT ALL OF THE NEARBY 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREDIBLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH SILENT POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT.

MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING...AT OR ABOVE
800MB. WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY BUT THERMAL
PROFILES ARE ALSO A TAD WARMER...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST HALF.
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS WERE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE AND EXPECT SIMILAR
RESULTS TODAY. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR
EDITS MADE. DID LOWER FORECAST JUST A TOUCH GIVEN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR FRONT. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT COOLER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF ENE WINDS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VERY COLD
WATERS OF LAKES HURON AND ERIE MAY CAP AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT. COOL
ENE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
DESPITE INCREASING GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. NO RAIN EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS OF PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN
THE PD. TWO PRONGED PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF POTENT SRN STREAM SYS XPCD
W/PRIMARY WAVE LIFTING UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN AND SECONDARY LT
SUN NIGHT/MON AM. THUS WHILE 00Z GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ALOFT...HIGHRES
SOLUTION SPACE IS SOMEWHAT DISPARATE OTRWS ESP W/SFC CYCLONE
LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA ON LT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH GOOD CLUSTERING DOES
EXIST IN SPECTRAL GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS SFC LOW TRACK UP THROUGH NW IN
WOULD PORTENT HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGH FAR WRN ZONES WHILE MEANS OF
HIGHRES GUIDANCE WOULD BACK THIS INTO ERN/NE IL. REGARDLESS GIVEN
XPCD NWD ADVTN OF GOMEX SOURCED MSTR PLUME WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIFT
UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN. THUNDER THREAT AGAIN LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY
POOR W/DEPLORABLE LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP/SATURATED COLUMN YET
WILL KEEP W/ISOLD TS MENTION FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY.

AFT THAT...COLD CORE DOMINANT NRN STREAM SYS TO CUTOFF ACRS THE NRN
LAKES AND SLOWLY MEANDER EWD INTO SE CANADA BY NXT WEEKEND. DRY
SUBSIDENT MID LVL FLW XPCD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD W/MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS XPCD AND A THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN LTR PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEEP MIXING AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CEILING HEIGHTS WELL
ABOVE 3 KFT TODAY. EASTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES BUT ANY RAIN OR REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 180956
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
556 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM DAY TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ONE MORE BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON TAP BEFORE RAIN RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS. GFS CP SCHEME CONTINUES TO IGNITE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...TIED TO SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IN A VERY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 100-200 J/KG SBCAPE IS PREDICATED
ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH MAY BE DIFFICULT GIVEN
SLOW GREENUP AND ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME NONZERO
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE BUT ALL OF THE NEARBY 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREDIBLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH SILENT POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT.

MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING...AT OR ABOVE
800MB. WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY BUT THERMAL
PROFILES ARE ALSO A TAD WARMER...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST HALF.
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS WERE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE AND EXPECT SIMILAR
RESULTS TODAY. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR
EDITS MADE. DID LOWER FORECAST JUST A TOUCH GIVEN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR FRONT. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT COOLER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF ENE WINDS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VERY COLD
WATERS OF LAKES HURON AND ERIE MAY CAP AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT. COOL
ENE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
DESPITE INCREASING GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. NO RAIN EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS OF PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN
THE PD. TWO PRONGED PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF POTENT SRN STREAM SYS XPCD
W/PRIMARY WAVE LIFTING UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN AND SECONDARY LT
SUN NIGHT/MON AM. THUS WHILE 00Z GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ALOFT...HIGHRES
SOLUTION SPACE IS SOMEWHAT DISPARATE OTRWS ESP W/SFC CYCLONE
LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA ON LT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH GOOD CLUSTERING DOES
EXIST IN SPECTRAL GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS SFC LOW TRACK UP THROUGH NW IN
WOULD PORTENT HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGH FAR WRN ZONES WHILE MEANS OF
HIGHRES GUIDANCE WOULD BACK THIS INTO ERN/NE IL. REGARDLESS GIVEN
XPCD NWD ADVTN OF GOMEX SOURCED MSTR PLUME WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIFT
UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN. THUNDER THREAT AGAIN LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY
POOR W/DEPLORABLE LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP/SATURATED COLUMN YET
WILL KEEP W/ISOLD TS MENTION FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY.

AFT THAT...COLD CORE DOMINANT NRN STREAM SYS TO CUTOFF ACRS THE NRN
LAKES AND SLOWLY MEANDER EWD INTO SE CANADA BY NXT WEEKEND. DRY
SUBSIDENT MID LVL FLW XPCD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD W/MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS XPCD AND A THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN LTR PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEEP MIXING AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP CEILING HEIGHTS WELL
ABOVE 3 KFT TODAY. EASTERLY WIND WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES BUT ANY RAIN OR REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 180756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
356 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
356 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
DOMINATE THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A COOLER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
SHOWERS. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY...BUT
INCONSISTENCIES IN GUIDANCE AFTER THAT RESULT IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WILL NOT MAKE ANY DEVIATIONS FROM LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS THIS HOUR DO NOT LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR EVEN WIDESPREAD
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE THE CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE
ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE IS STILL TOO DRY. SO REMOVED THE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG MENTION FROM THE FORECAST FROM NOW. IT
CERTAINLY MAY OCCUR IN MANY LOCALES JUST NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
MENTION IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...ALBEIT NOT AS
SUNNY...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE
THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DID NOT GO VERY FAR ABOVE
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY WENT WITH A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE
HIGHER MAV/MEX TO THE LOWER MET FOR WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. FOR NOW KEEPING KIND UNDER THE 80 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD SO
GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND. AS MENTIONED IN NEAR TERM THE CLOUDS
WILL SERIOUSLY BE INCREASE BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING AND EVEN INTO EARLY TONIGHT
STILL LOOK ON THE DRY SIDE SO CONTINUED THIS TREND OF DELAYING THE
ARRIVAL OF PRECIP...UNTIL MUCH CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING...AROUND
08-10Z DO THE POPS GET MORE MEASURABLE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FIRST.

THEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 12-00Z WITH THE HOURS OF 12-18Z ESPECIALLY TARGETING THE
CWA WITH MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. CAPE AND
INSTABILITY APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THEN TRENDED HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN DURING
THE DAY.

AS THE LOW DEPARTS FROM THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL DECREASE
STEADILY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN A FEW LINGERING CHANCES WILL
REMAIN INTO DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN DRY BY MONDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. COOLER TEMPERATURE IN STORE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORK WEEK. MOS BLEND YIELDING ONLY HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. AND THIS
GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE THE TEMPERATURE TREND MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 180730
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM DAY TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ONE MORE BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON TAP BEFORE RAIN RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS. GFS CP SCHEME CONTINUES TO IGNITE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...TIED TO SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IN A VERY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 100-200 J/KG SBCAPE IS PREDICATED
ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH MAY BE DIFFICULT GIVEN
SLOW GREENUP AND ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME NONZERO
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE BUT ALL OF THE NEARBY 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREDIBLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH SILENT POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT.

MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING...AT OR ABOVE
800MB. WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY BUT THERMAL
PROFILES ARE ALSO A TAD WARMER...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST HALF.
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS WERE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE AND EXPECT SIMILAR
RESULTS TODAY. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR
EDITS MADE. DID LOWER FORECAST JUST A TOUCH GIVEN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR FRONT. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT COOLER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF ENE WINDS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VERY COLD
WATERS OF LAKES HURON AND ERIE MAY CAP AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT. COOL
ENE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
DESPITE INCREASING GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. NO RAIN EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS OF PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN
THE PD. TWO PRONGED PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF POTENT SRN STREAM SYS XPCD
W/PRIMARY WAVE LIFTING UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN AND SECONDARY LT
SUN NIGHT/MON AM. THUS WHILE 00Z GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ALOFT...HIGHRES
SOLUTION SPACE IS SOMEWHAT DISPARATE OTRWS ESP W/SFC CYCLONE
LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA ON LT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH GOOD CLUSTERING DOES
EXIST IN SPECTRAL GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS SFC LOW TRACK UP THROUGH NW IN
WOULD PORTENT HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGH FAR WRN ZONES WHILE MEANS OF
HIGHRES GUIDANCE WOULD BACK THIS INTO ERN/NE IL. REGARDLESS GIVEN
XPCD NWD ADVTN OF GOMEX SOURCED MSTR PLUME WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIFT
UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN. THUNDER THREAT AGAIN LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY
POOR W/DEPLORABLE LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP/SATURATED COLUMN YET
WILL KEEP W/ISOLD TS MENTION FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY.

AFT THAT...COLD CORE DOMINANT NRN STREAM SYS TO CUTOFF ACRS THE NRN
LAKES AND SLOWLY MEANDER EWD INTO SE CANADA BY NXT WEEKEND. DRY
SUBSIDENT MID LVL FLW XPCD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD W/MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS XPCD AND A THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN LTR PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE BASES WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 180730
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM DAY TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ONE MORE BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON TAP BEFORE RAIN RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS. GFS CP SCHEME CONTINUES TO IGNITE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...TIED TO SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IN A VERY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 100-200 J/KG SBCAPE IS PREDICATED
ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH MAY BE DIFFICULT GIVEN
SLOW GREENUP AND ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME NONZERO
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE BUT ALL OF THE NEARBY 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREDIBLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH SILENT POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT.

MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING...AT OR ABOVE
800MB. WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY BUT THERMAL
PROFILES ARE ALSO A TAD WARMER...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST HALF.
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS WERE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE AND EXPECT SIMILAR
RESULTS TODAY. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR
EDITS MADE. DID LOWER FORECAST JUST A TOUCH GIVEN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR FRONT. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT COOLER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF ENE WINDS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VERY COLD
WATERS OF LAKES HURON AND ERIE MAY CAP AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT. COOL
ENE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
DESPITE INCREASING GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. NO RAIN EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS OF PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN
THE PD. TWO PRONGED PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF POTENT SRN STREAM SYS XPCD
W/PRIMARY WAVE LIFTING UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN AND SECONDARY LT
SUN NIGHT/MON AM. THUS WHILE 00Z GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ALOFT...HIGHRES
SOLUTION SPACE IS SOMEWHAT DISPARATE OTRWS ESP W/SFC CYCLONE
LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA ON LT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH GOOD CLUSTERING DOES
EXIST IN SPECTRAL GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS SFC LOW TRACK UP THROUGH NW IN
WOULD PORTENT HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGH FAR WRN ZONES WHILE MEANS OF
HIGHRES GUIDANCE WOULD BACK THIS INTO ERN/NE IL. REGARDLESS GIVEN
XPCD NWD ADVTN OF GOMEX SOURCED MSTR PLUME WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIFT
UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN. THUNDER THREAT AGAIN LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY
POOR W/DEPLORABLE LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP/SATURATED COLUMN YET
WILL KEEP W/ISOLD TS MENTION FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY.

AFT THAT...COLD CORE DOMINANT NRN STREAM SYS TO CUTOFF ACRS THE NRN
LAKES AND SLOWLY MEANDER EWD INTO SE CANADA BY NXT WEEKEND. DRY
SUBSIDENT MID LVL FLW XPCD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD W/MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS XPCD AND A THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN LTR PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE BASES WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 180730
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM DAY TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ONE MORE BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON TAP BEFORE RAIN RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS. GFS CP SCHEME CONTINUES TO IGNITE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...TIED TO SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IN A VERY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 100-200 J/KG SBCAPE IS PREDICATED
ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH MAY BE DIFFICULT GIVEN
SLOW GREENUP AND ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME NONZERO
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE BUT ALL OF THE NEARBY 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREDIBLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH SILENT POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT.

MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING...AT OR ABOVE
800MB. WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY BUT THERMAL
PROFILES ARE ALSO A TAD WARMER...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST HALF.
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS WERE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE AND EXPECT SIMILAR
RESULTS TODAY. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR
EDITS MADE. DID LOWER FORECAST JUST A TOUCH GIVEN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR FRONT. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT COOLER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF ENE WINDS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VERY COLD
WATERS OF LAKES HURON AND ERIE MAY CAP AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT. COOL
ENE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
DESPITE INCREASING GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. NO RAIN EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS OF PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN
THE PD. TWO PRONGED PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF POTENT SRN STREAM SYS XPCD
W/PRIMARY WAVE LIFTING UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN AND SECONDARY LT
SUN NIGHT/MON AM. THUS WHILE 00Z GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ALOFT...HIGHRES
SOLUTION SPACE IS SOMEWHAT DISPARATE OTRWS ESP W/SFC CYCLONE
LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA ON LT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH GOOD CLUSTERING DOES
EXIST IN SPECTRAL GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS SFC LOW TRACK UP THROUGH NW IN
WOULD PORTENT HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGH FAR WRN ZONES WHILE MEANS OF
HIGHRES GUIDANCE WOULD BACK THIS INTO ERN/NE IL. REGARDLESS GIVEN
XPCD NWD ADVTN OF GOMEX SOURCED MSTR PLUME WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIFT
UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN. THUNDER THREAT AGAIN LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY
POOR W/DEPLORABLE LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP/SATURATED COLUMN YET
WILL KEEP W/ISOLD TS MENTION FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY.

AFT THAT...COLD CORE DOMINANT NRN STREAM SYS TO CUTOFF ACRS THE NRN
LAKES AND SLOWLY MEANDER EWD INTO SE CANADA BY NXT WEEKEND. DRY
SUBSIDENT MID LVL FLW XPCD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD W/MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS XPCD AND A THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN LTR PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE BASES WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 180730
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM DAY TODAY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

ONE MORE BENIGN WEATHER DAY ON TAP BEFORE RAIN RETURNS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING CUTOFF LOW WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS. GFS CP SCHEME CONTINUES TO IGNITE PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON...TIED TO SUBTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IN A VERY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 100-200 J/KG SBCAPE IS PREDICATED
ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S...WHICH MAY BE DIFFICULT GIVEN
SLOW GREENUP AND ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING. STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WOULD SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME NONZERO
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE BUT ALL OF THE NEARBY 00Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREDIBLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL THEREFORE
CONTINUE WITH SILENT POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT.

MAX TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TODAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER DAY OF VERY DEEP MIXING...AT OR ABOVE
800MB. WILL PROBABLY BE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER TODAY BUT THERMAL
PROFILES ARE ALSO A TAD WARMER...AT LEAST IN OUR SOUTHWEST HALF.
YESTERDAY`S HIGHS WERE ABOVE MOST GUIDANCE AND EXPECT SIMILAR
RESULTS TODAY. INHERITED FORECAST REFLECTS THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR
EDITS MADE. DID LOWER FORECAST JUST A TOUCH GIVEN APPROACHING
BACKDOOR FRONT. STILL EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT COOLER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHEAST WHERE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF ENE WINDS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO VERY COLD
WATERS OF LAKES HURON AND ERIE MAY CAP AFTERNOON HIGHS A BIT. COOL
ENE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
DESPITE INCREASING GRADIENT AND CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SYSTEM. NO RAIN EXPECTED PRIOR TO 12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

DEVIL LIES IN THE DETAILS OF PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM ENERGY EARLY IN
THE PD. TWO PRONGED PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF POTENT SRN STREAM SYS XPCD
W/PRIMARY WAVE LIFTING UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN AND SECONDARY LT
SUN NIGHT/MON AM. THUS WHILE 00Z GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR ALOFT...HIGHRES
SOLUTION SPACE IS SOMEWHAT DISPARATE OTRWS ESP W/SFC CYCLONE
LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA ON LT SUNDAY ALTHOUGH GOOD CLUSTERING DOES
EXIST IN SPECTRAL GUIDANCE. CONSENSUS SFC LOW TRACK UP THROUGH NW IN
WOULD PORTENT HEAVIER RAINFALL THROUGH FAR WRN ZONES WHILE MEANS OF
HIGHRES GUIDANCE WOULD BACK THIS INTO ERN/NE IL. REGARDLESS GIVEN
XPCD NWD ADVTN OF GOMEX SOURCED MSTR PLUME WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL LIFT
UP ACRS THE AREA SUN AFTN. THUNDER THREAT AGAIN LOOKS EXCEEDINGLY
POOR W/DEPLORABLE LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP/SATURATED COLUMN YET
WILL KEEP W/ISOLD TS MENTION FOR SAKE OF CONTINUITY.

AFT THAT...COLD CORE DOMINANT NRN STREAM SYS TO CUTOFF ACRS THE NRN
LAKES AND SLOWLY MEANDER EWD INTO SE CANADA BY NXT WEEKEND. DRY
SUBSIDENT MID LVL FLW XPCD TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PD W/MUCH BLO NORMAL TEMPS XPCD AND A THREAT FOR FROST/FREEZE
CONDITIONS IN LTR PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE BASES WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 180520
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
120 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BURNED OFF AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING. A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED INTO FAR NW CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO THIN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DERAIL MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST BUT A FEW HOURS OF SCT OR BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST. ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO MID 70S AND WILL AGAIN
SIDE TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS/BIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH... SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2
WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS
INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE. BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. KEPT
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FROST IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE NIGHTS. TEMPERED SUPERBLEND CHANCE
POPS TO MAINLY DRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION SHOWING A PROFOUND WET BIAS AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE BASES WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 180520
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
120 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BURNED OFF AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING. A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED INTO FAR NW CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO THIN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DERAIL MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST BUT A FEW HOURS OF SCT OR BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST. ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO MID 70S AND WILL AGAIN
SIDE TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS/BIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH... SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2
WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS
INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE. BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. KEPT
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FROST IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE NIGHTS. TEMPERED SUPERBLEND CHANCE
POPS TO MAINLY DRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION SHOWING A PROFOUND WET BIAS AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PRECLUDE
ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE BASES WELL ABOVE 3 KFT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 180456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 180456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18/0600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1253 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

AIR MASS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT EARLIER YESTERDAY. AS A
RESULT...APPEARS CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL
TOWARDS DAYBREAK. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR A
FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...EXPECTING SOME DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT BASED AROUND
050 DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS
BELOW AT OR BELOW 7 KTS THROUGH 181800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 180221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 180221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 180221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 180221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 180130
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 180130
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 930 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WERE HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DEW POINTS THEMSELVES ARE LOWER THAN LAST NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE SREF ENSEMBLE CHANCES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 3 MILES
AND CEILINGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET WERE 5 PERCENT OR LESS AND ONLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE DEW POINTS WERE HIGHEST.
SO...WILL NOT GO ANYMORE PESSIMISTIC THAN PATCHY FOG FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIWX 172359
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
759 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BURNED OFF AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING. A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED INTO FAR NW CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO THIN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DERAIL MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST BUT A FEW HOURS OF SCT OR BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST. ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO MID 70S AND WILL AGAIN
SIDE TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS/BIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH... SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2
WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS
INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE. BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. KEPT
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FROST IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE NIGHTS. TEMPERED SUPERBLEND CHANCE
POPS TO MAINLY DRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION SHOWING A PROFOUND WET BIAS AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSURE VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PD. XOVER TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LWR 40S ACRS NRN IN TO PRECLUDE EARLY AM BR/FG
FORMATION AS WELL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 172359
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
759 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BURNED OFF AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING. A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED INTO FAR NW CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO THIN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DERAIL MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST BUT A FEW HOURS OF SCT OR BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST. ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO MID 70S AND WILL AGAIN
SIDE TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS/BIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH... SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2
WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS
INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE. BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. KEPT
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FROST IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE NIGHTS. TEMPERED SUPERBLEND CHANCE
POPS TO MAINLY DRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION SHOWING A PROFOUND WET BIAS AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSURE VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PD. XOVER TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LWR 40S ACRS NRN IN TO PRECLUDE EARLY AM BR/FG
FORMATION AS WELL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 172359
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
759 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BURNED OFF AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING. A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED INTO FAR NW CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO THIN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DERAIL MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST BUT A FEW HOURS OF SCT OR BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST. ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO MID 70S AND WILL AGAIN
SIDE TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS/BIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH... SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2
WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS
INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE. BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. KEPT
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FROST IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE NIGHTS. TEMPERED SUPERBLEND CHANCE
POPS TO MAINLY DRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION SHOWING A PROFOUND WET BIAS AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSURE VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PD. XOVER TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LWR 40S ACRS NRN IN TO PRECLUDE EARLY AM BR/FG
FORMATION AS WELL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 172359
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
759 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES
OVERNIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BURNED OFF AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING. A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED INTO FAR NW CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO THIN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS
HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DERAIL MOSTLY CLEAR
FORECAST BUT A FEW HOURS OF SCT OR BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST. ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO MID 70S AND WILL AGAIN
SIDE TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS/BIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
MERGE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH... SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD
OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2
WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS
INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE. BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS
TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. KEPT
LOWS WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
FROST IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE NIGHTS. TEMPERED SUPERBLEND CHANCE
POPS TO MAINLY DRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK BASED ON OFFICE
VERIFICATION SHOWING A PROFOUND WET BIAS AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO ASSURE VFR MET CONDS THROUGH THE PD. XOVER TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LWR 40S ACRS NRN IN TO PRECLUDE EARLY AM BR/FG
FORMATION AS WELL.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIND 172236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 172236
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 180000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 635 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AIR MASS HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT TODAY. AS A RESULT...APPEARS
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WON/T BE APPROACHED UNTIL TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON
SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ABOVE
IFR FOR NOW...AND GO WITH MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABOUT 180800Z.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WINDS BELOW 7 KTS
EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIWX 172025
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
425 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BURNED OFF AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING. A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED INTO FAR NW CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO THIN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DERAIL MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST BUT
A FEW HOURS OF SCT OR BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST. ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO MID 70S AND WILL AGAIN SIDE
TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS/BIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM
HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2 WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN
THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE.
BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FROST
IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE NIGHTS. TEMPERED SUPERBLEND CHANCE POPS TO
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK BASED ON OFFICE VERIFICATION
SHOWING A PROFOUND WET BIAS AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 420 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 172025
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
425 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUIET WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SKIES TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOW 50S. THOUGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A QUIET SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
REGION PROVIDING LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. FOG FROM
THIS MORNING HAS BURNED OFF AS EXPECTED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND
MIXING. A PATCH OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE DRIFTED INTO FAR NW CWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO THIN BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
BEEN HINTING AT SOME LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DERAIL MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST BUT
A FEW HOURS OF SCT OR BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING REMAIN POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY ON SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE FOR SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S MOST AREAS WITH SOME
UPPER 40S POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST. ANOTHER MILD SPRING DAY IN
STORE FOR SATURDAY WITH TEMPS BACK INTO MID 70S AND WILL AGAIN SIDE
TOWARD HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN RECENT TRENDS/BIAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND MERGE
WITH A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROF SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.50
INCHES...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACCORDING TO CLIMATOLOGY. ALSO...AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA. 0-3KM
HELICITY IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 M2S2 WITH NEARLY 50 M/S SHEAR IN
THIS LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY CAPE.
BELIEVE THIS SITUATION STILL NEEDS TO BE WATCHED GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOWS
WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FROST
IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE NIGHTS. TEMPERED SUPERBLEND CHANCE POPS TO
MAINLY DRY FOR THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK BASED ON OFFICE VERIFICATION
SHOWING A PROFOUND WET BIAS AND GIVEN ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 420 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL KEEP DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 172018
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 172100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 172018
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 172100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 171840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER ONTARIO AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST TO QUEBEC
DURING THE PERIOD WILL BRING A COOLER PATTERN INTO PLACE OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. SOME SMALL OFF AND ON SHOWER CHANCES ARE SHOWING
UP IN THE INITIALIZATION WITH SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LOW. THERE/S QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES ON THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES...SO THINK BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS
TO ACCEPT SUPERBLEND LOW POPS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

A PLEASANT AND QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA BEFORE ENDING ON A STORMY NOTE.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER BOTH
TODAY AND SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN INDIANA FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
ON SUNDAY.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE NEXT WORK WEEK RESUMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS BROAD...POORLY
ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWED
PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD ACROSS THE STATE AMID THE QUICK W-NW FLOW
ALOFT. WATER VAPOR SHOWED AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND A
STREAM OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WAS STREAMING ACROSS TEXAS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. DEW POINT TEMPS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINED IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS AND FOG.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT UPPER RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN TONIGHT.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST NEUTRAL ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH DEW POINT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 40S...WILL AIM FOR LOW AT OR ABOVE
PERSISTENCE. WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LESS THAN 2...ESPECIALLY
IN RURAL AREAS...WILL MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG FOR NOW...BUT IF
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...EVENING SHIFT CAN UPGRADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 151 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL
USE A BLEND. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS ON SUNDAY.

A GLORIOUS SPRING DAY LOOKS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT...PROVIDING GOOD SUBSIDENCE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER DRY AS THE
SURFACE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHABLE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S ON SATURDAY...THUS SOME CU WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THUS WILL AIM FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
MAVMOS...WHICH APPEAR ON THE MARK.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARD INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDING ON SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY IN THE LOWER LEVELS...HOWEVER UPPER LEVELS LOOK TO
SATURATE...INDICATING INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH
TEMPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET ON SUNDAY. GFS AND NAM DEPICT A SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE AN
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT WORKS ACROSS THE STATE...PROVIDING
FORCING. GFS 300K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS EXCELLENT UP GLIDE WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 6 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW DEEP
SATURATION AS THESE FEATURES PASS. THUS WITH ALL OF THESE
FEATURES...WILL TREND TOWARD CATEGORICAL POPS. CAPE AND INSTABILITY
APPEARS RATHER WEAK...SO SVR NOT EXPECTED BUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL TREND TEMPS BELOW MAVMOS
GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

GFS AND NAM DEPICT BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LOOK TOO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW IN PLACE WITH DECENT LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND
REACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TOWARD CHC POPS DURING
EACH OF THESE PERIODS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS WARMER AND MONDAY HIGHS COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 171728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
128 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 171800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR WITH
JUST SOME CIRRUS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. LATE TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE FOG AT THE SITES
WITH THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AND CALM WINDS. TIME HEIGHTS DON/T
LOOK AS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG THOUGH WITH A GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSION
THAN THIS MORNING...AND THE SITES HAVE HAD A DAY OF SUNSHINE TO
EVAPORATE SOME OF THE SOIL MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS RAIN. AS A
RESULT INCLUDED 3SM BR AT THE OUTLYING SITES WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT
KIND. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 7-10 KTS OUT OF THE EAST BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO THE SITES AS FOG BURNS OFF AND WILL
PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT BE JUST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO THE SITES AS FOG BURNS OFF AND WILL
PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT BE JUST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO THE SITES AS FOG BURNS OFF AND WILL
PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT BE JUST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1042 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO THE SITES AS FOG BURNS OFF AND WILL
PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT BE JUST
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171337
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI 14Z AT ALL TAF SITES
DUE TO DENSE FOG. AS SOON AS THE FOG LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT
BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 171337
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS AND CENTRAL INDIANA. SATELLITE SHOWS
SOME HIGH CLOUD ALOFT AMID A QUICK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY SHOW UNREACHABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ALONG
WITH A DRY COLUMN. ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD...PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPS ABOVE MAVMOS. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES ALL OF
THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI 14Z AT ALL TAF SITES
DUE TO DENSE FOG. AS SOON AS THE FOG LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT
BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 171136
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
736 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI 14Z AT ALL TAF SITES
DUE TO DENSE FOG. AS SOON AS THE FOG LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT
BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 171136
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
736 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI 14Z AT ALL TAF SITES
DUE TO DENSE FOG. AS SOON AS THE FOG LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN AND PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO FOG CHANCES AGAIN FOR TONIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES
WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT. ELSEWHERE...CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT AT KIND AT THIS TIME WHERE WINDS MIGHT
BE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 171004
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
604 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
50 DEGREES. ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEHIND EXITING CLOUD COVER HAS
ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
CWA. DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND LATEST
OBS/AREA WEBCAMS SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY ISOLATED. BLUFFTON
WEBCAM IS MAINLY CLEAR AND BOTH KMCX AND KGGP HAVE BEEN RISING TO
1SM AT TIMES. GIVEN TENUOUS NATURE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF
DENSE FOG IN OUR CWA...WILL FORGO AN ADVISORY AND CONTINUE TO
HANDLE WITH SPS`S. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE VERY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING COMMENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW HIGH TEMPS MANAGE TO
CLIMB. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL AVA WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
CIRRUS BEING BLOWN OFF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY LOW
LEVELS AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO CLIMB TO
ALMOST 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE AROUND
6C...SUGGESTING MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH
TEMPS DURING THESE DEEP MIXING EVENTS RECENTLY AND SEVERAL MEMBERS
STILL SEEM TOO COOL. HAVE THEREFORE HELD VERY CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS DEEP MIXING WILL PROBABLY ALLOW AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S (RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT).
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA THOUGH AND WITH
JUST MARGINAL RH VALUES IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...WILL LET DAY
SHIFT MONITOR DIURNAL TRENDS FOR ANY HEIGHTENED AWARENESS MESSAGES.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT
STILL PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. CUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON UPCOMING MERGER OF NRN/SRN
STREAM ENERGY BY LT WEEKEND. POTENT SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW SPINNING
NR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WILL WOBBLE NEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS SAT BFR PHASING W/NRN STREAM SW DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS SUN. NET RESULT ACRS THE LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL BE A VIGOROUS
PCPN SHIELD ON SUNDAY ALG NOSE OF LL MSTR SURGE INVOF DEEPENING SFC
REFLECTION. CONSENSUS TRACK OF SFC FTR OVERHEAD WOULD HERALD SIG
PROMISE FOR A MUCH NEEDED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT.

SECONDARY PRECIP MAX LIKELY TO DVLP AHD OF DIGGING NRN STREAM SYS
ACRS THE WRN LAKES LT SUN NIGHT/MON AM HWVR EWD TRANSLATION OF
MERGED FNTL ZONE UNCERTAIN W/FAIRLY SIG SPREAD INDICATED IN 00Z
GUIDANCE. HWVR ALLBLEND SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A DECENT MIDDLE GROUND
CONFINING HIGHER POPS EAST. NRN STREAM CYCLONE TO THEN CUTOFF OVR
THE NRN LAKES MID PD BFR SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LT
WEEK.

OTRWS W/CWA NESTLED IN ALG SUBSIDENT PERIPHERY OF UPR TROUGH AXIS
TUE ONWARD...NO NEED TO CARRY ALLBLEND LOW CHC POPS THROUGH DYS 5-7.
INCREASING NWRLY FLW ALOFT AND DEEPENING CAA WEDGE XPCD THROUGH THE
WEEK W/COOLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT. ALLBLEND TEMPS LIKELY A BETTER FIT
VS PURE MOS GUIDANCE ESP LTR PDS AS GEM/ECMWF BLEND QUITE A BIT
COLDER AND POINTING TO A FROST THREAT AS EARLY AS WED AM. HWVR THIS
THREAT LIKELY THEREAFTER W/GEM/ECWMF INDICATING A HARD FREEZE PSBL
BOTH THU NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL SITES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA ARE REPORTING MVFR BR DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING...LIGHT WINDS...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DENSE
FOG IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL INDIANA. BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
CATEGORY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ020-022-
     023-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 171004
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
604 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
50 DEGREES. ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEHIND EXITING CLOUD COVER HAS
ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
CWA. DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND LATEST
OBS/AREA WEBCAMS SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY ISOLATED. BLUFFTON
WEBCAM IS MAINLY CLEAR AND BOTH KMCX AND KGGP HAVE BEEN RISING TO
1SM AT TIMES. GIVEN TENUOUS NATURE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF
DENSE FOG IN OUR CWA...WILL FORGO AN ADVISORY AND CONTINUE TO
HANDLE WITH SPS`S. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE VERY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING COMMENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW HIGH TEMPS MANAGE TO
CLIMB. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL AVA WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
CIRRUS BEING BLOWN OFF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY LOW
LEVELS AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO CLIMB TO
ALMOST 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE AROUND
6C...SUGGESTING MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH
TEMPS DURING THESE DEEP MIXING EVENTS RECENTLY AND SEVERAL MEMBERS
STILL SEEM TOO COOL. HAVE THEREFORE HELD VERY CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS DEEP MIXING WILL PROBABLY ALLOW AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S (RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT).
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA THOUGH AND WITH
JUST MARGINAL RH VALUES IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...WILL LET DAY
SHIFT MONITOR DIURNAL TRENDS FOR ANY HEIGHTENED AWARENESS MESSAGES.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT
STILL PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. CUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON UPCOMING MERGER OF NRN/SRN
STREAM ENERGY BY LT WEEKEND. POTENT SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW SPINNING
NR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WILL WOBBLE NEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS SAT BFR PHASING W/NRN STREAM SW DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS SUN. NET RESULT ACRS THE LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL BE A VIGOROUS
PCPN SHIELD ON SUNDAY ALG NOSE OF LL MSTR SURGE INVOF DEEPENING SFC
REFLECTION. CONSENSUS TRACK OF SFC FTR OVERHEAD WOULD HERALD SIG
PROMISE FOR A MUCH NEEDED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT.

SECONDARY PRECIP MAX LIKELY TO DVLP AHD OF DIGGING NRN STREAM SYS
ACRS THE WRN LAKES LT SUN NIGHT/MON AM HWVR EWD TRANSLATION OF
MERGED FNTL ZONE UNCERTAIN W/FAIRLY SIG SPREAD INDICATED IN 00Z
GUIDANCE. HWVR ALLBLEND SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A DECENT MIDDLE GROUND
CONFINING HIGHER POPS EAST. NRN STREAM CYCLONE TO THEN CUTOFF OVR
THE NRN LAKES MID PD BFR SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LT
WEEK.

OTRWS W/CWA NESTLED IN ALG SUBSIDENT PERIPHERY OF UPR TROUGH AXIS
TUE ONWARD...NO NEED TO CARRY ALLBLEND LOW CHC POPS THROUGH DYS 5-7.
INCREASING NWRLY FLW ALOFT AND DEEPENING CAA WEDGE XPCD THROUGH THE
WEEK W/COOLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT. ALLBLEND TEMPS LIKELY A BETTER FIT
VS PURE MOS GUIDANCE ESP LTR PDS AS GEM/ECMWF BLEND QUITE A BIT
COLDER AND POINTING TO A FROST THREAT AS EARLY AS WED AM. HWVR THIS
THREAT LIKELY THEREAFTER W/GEM/ECWMF INDICATING A HARD FREEZE PSBL
BOTH THU NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 604 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

SEVERAL SITES ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA ARE REPORTING MVFR BR DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING...LIGHT WINDS...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE. DENSE
FOG IS CONFINED TO CENTRAL INDIANA. BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR
CATEGORY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ020-022-
     023-032>034.

MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170838
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
438 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

UPDATE...
VLIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK DUE TO DENSE
FOG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 170811
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
50 DEGREES. ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEHIND EXITING CLOUD COVER HAS
ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
CWA. DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND LATEST
OBS/AREA WEBCAMS SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY ISOLATED. BLUFFTON
WEBCAM IS MAINLY CLEAR AND BOTH KMCX AND KGGP HAVE BEEN RISING TO
1SM AT TIMES. GIVEN TENUOUS NATURE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF
DENSE FOG IN OUR CWA...WILL FORGO AN ADVISORY AND CONTINUE TO
HANDLE WITH SPS`S. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE VERY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING COMMENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW HIGH TEMPS MANAGE TO
CLIMB. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL AVA WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
CIRRUS BEING BLOWN OFF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY LOW
LEVELS AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO CLIMB TO
ALMOST 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE AROUND
6C...SUGGESTING MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH
TEMPS DURING THESE DEEP MIXING EVENTS RECENTLY AND SEVERAL MEMBERS
STILL SEEM TOO COOL. HAVE THEREFORE HELD VERY CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS DEEP MIXING WILL PROBABLY ALLOW AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S (RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT).
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA THOUGH AND WITH
JUST MARGINAL RH VALUES IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...WILL LET DAY
SHIFT MONITOR DIURNAL TRENDS FOR ANY HEIGHTENED AWARENESS MESSAGES.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT
STILL PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. CUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON UPCOMING MERGER OF NRN/SRN
STREAM ENERGY BY LT WEEKEND. POTENT SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW SPINNING
NR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WILL WOBBLE NEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS SAT BFR PHASING W/NRN STREAM SW DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS SUN. NET RESULT ACRS THE LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL BE A VIGOROUS
PCPN SHIELD ON SUNDAY ALG NOSE OF LL MSTR SURGE INVOF DEEPENING SFC
REFLECTION. CONSENSUS TRACK OF SFC FTR OVERHEAD WOULD HERALD SIG
PROMISE FOR A MUCH NEEDED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT.

SECONDARY PRECIP MAX LIKELY TO DVLP AHD OF DIGGING NRN STREAM SYS
ACRS THE WRN LAKES LT SUN NIGHT/MON AM HWVR EWD TRANSLATION OF
MERGED FNTL ZONE UNCERTAIN W/FAIRLY SIG SPREAD INDICATED IN 00Z
GUIDANCE. HWVR ALLBLEND SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A DECENT MIDDLE GROUND
CONFINING HIGHER POPS EAST. NRN STREAM CYCLONE TO THEN CUTOFF OVR
THE NRN LAKES MID PD BFR SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LT
WEEK.

OTRWS W/CWA NESTLED IN ALG SUBSIDENT PERIPHERY OF UPR TROUGH AXIS
TUE ONWARD...NO NEED TO CARRY ALLBLEND LOW CHC POPS THROUGH DYS 5-7.
INCREASING NWRLY FLW ALOFT AND DEEPENING CAA WEDGE XPCD THROUGH THE
WEEK W/COOLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT. ALLBLEND TEMPS LIKELY A BETTER FIT
VS PURE MOS GUIDANCE ESP LTR PDS AS GEM/ECMWF BLEND QUITE A BIT
COLDER AND POINTING TO A FROST THREAT AS EARLY AS WED AM. HWVR THIS
THREAT LIKELY THEREAFTER W/GEM/ECWMF INDICATING A HARD FREEZE PSBL
BOTH THU NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE IS GRADUALLY SCOURING
OUT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AND SLOW
ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER DEWPOINTS AT KSBN SUGGEST VERY LOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR BR JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KFWA REMAINS ON THE
EDGE OF DENSER FOG JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUSPECT DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT HERE TOO BUT SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 170811
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
50 DEGREES. ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEHIND EXITING CLOUD COVER HAS
ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
CWA. DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND LATEST
OBS/AREA WEBCAMS SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY ISOLATED. BLUFFTON
WEBCAM IS MAINLY CLEAR AND BOTH KMCX AND KGGP HAVE BEEN RISING TO
1SM AT TIMES. GIVEN TENUOUS NATURE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF
DENSE FOG IN OUR CWA...WILL FORGO AN ADVISORY AND CONTINUE TO
HANDLE WITH SPS`S. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE VERY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING COMMENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW HIGH TEMPS MANAGE TO
CLIMB. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL AVA WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
CIRRUS BEING BLOWN OFF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY LOW
LEVELS AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO CLIMB TO
ALMOST 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE AROUND
6C...SUGGESTING MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH
TEMPS DURING THESE DEEP MIXING EVENTS RECENTLY AND SEVERAL MEMBERS
STILL SEEM TOO COOL. HAVE THEREFORE HELD VERY CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS DEEP MIXING WILL PROBABLY ALLOW AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S (RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT).
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA THOUGH AND WITH
JUST MARGINAL RH VALUES IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...WILL LET DAY
SHIFT MONITOR DIURNAL TRENDS FOR ANY HEIGHTENED AWARENESS MESSAGES.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT
STILL PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. CUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON UPCOMING MERGER OF NRN/SRN
STREAM ENERGY BY LT WEEKEND. POTENT SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW SPINNING
NR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WILL WOBBLE NEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS SAT BFR PHASING W/NRN STREAM SW DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS SUN. NET RESULT ACRS THE LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL BE A VIGOROUS
PCPN SHIELD ON SUNDAY ALG NOSE OF LL MSTR SURGE INVOF DEEPENING SFC
REFLECTION. CONSENSUS TRACK OF SFC FTR OVERHEAD WOULD HERALD SIG
PROMISE FOR A MUCH NEEDED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT.

SECONDARY PRECIP MAX LIKELY TO DVLP AHD OF DIGGING NRN STREAM SYS
ACRS THE WRN LAKES LT SUN NIGHT/MON AM HWVR EWD TRANSLATION OF
MERGED FNTL ZONE UNCERTAIN W/FAIRLY SIG SPREAD INDICATED IN 00Z
GUIDANCE. HWVR ALLBLEND SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A DECENT MIDDLE GROUND
CONFINING HIGHER POPS EAST. NRN STREAM CYCLONE TO THEN CUTOFF OVR
THE NRN LAKES MID PD BFR SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LT
WEEK.

OTRWS W/CWA NESTLED IN ALG SUBSIDENT PERIPHERY OF UPR TROUGH AXIS
TUE ONWARD...NO NEED TO CARRY ALLBLEND LOW CHC POPS THROUGH DYS 5-7.
INCREASING NWRLY FLW ALOFT AND DEEPENING CAA WEDGE XPCD THROUGH THE
WEEK W/COOLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT. ALLBLEND TEMPS LIKELY A BETTER FIT
VS PURE MOS GUIDANCE ESP LTR PDS AS GEM/ECMWF BLEND QUITE A BIT
COLDER AND POINTING TO A FROST THREAT AS EARLY AS WED AM. HWVR THIS
THREAT LIKELY THEREAFTER W/GEM/ECWMF INDICATING A HARD FREEZE PSBL
BOTH THU NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE IS GRADUALLY SCOURING
OUT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AND SLOW
ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER DEWPOINTS AT KSBN SUGGEST VERY LOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR BR JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KFWA REMAINS ON THE
EDGE OF DENSER FOG JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUSPECT DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT HERE TOO BUT SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 170811
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND
50 DEGREES. ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BEHIND EXITING CLOUD COVER HAS
ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
CWA. DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST AND LATEST
OBS/AREA WEBCAMS SUGGEST DENSE FOG IS FAIRLY ISOLATED. BLUFFTON
WEBCAM IS MAINLY CLEAR AND BOTH KMCX AND KGGP HAVE BEEN RISING TO
1SM AT TIMES. GIVEN TENUOUS NATURE AND LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF
DENSE FOG IN OUR CWA...WILL FORGO AN ADVISORY AND CONTINUE TO
HANDLE WITH SPS`S. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE VERY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING COMMENCE.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW HIGH TEMPS MANAGE TO
CLIMB. CONFLUENCE ALOFT AND MIDLEVEL AVA WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENT
ENVIRONMENT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING A DRY AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
CIRRUS BEING BLOWN OFF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY LOW
LEVELS AND NEARLY FULL SUN WILL ALLOW MIXING HEIGHTS TO CLIMB TO
ALMOST 800MB THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE AROUND
6C...SUGGESTING MID 70S ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH
TEMPS DURING THESE DEEP MIXING EVENTS RECENTLY AND SEVERAL MEMBERS
STILL SEEM TOO COOL. HAVE THEREFORE HELD VERY CLOSE TO INHERITED
FORECAST WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS DEEP MIXING WILL PROBABLY ALLOW AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S (RH VALUES AROUND 30 PERCENT).
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NOWHERE NEAR RED FLAG CRITERIA THOUGH AND WITH
JUST MARGINAL RH VALUES IN THE FORECAST RIGHT NOW...WILL LET DAY
SHIFT MONITOR DIURNAL TRENDS FOR ANY HEIGHTENED AWARENESS MESSAGES.
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LOW DEWPOINTS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BASED ON NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BUT
STILL PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD COOLER MOS GUIDANCE. CUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
BY A DEGREE OR TWO WITH VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GOOD INTERMODEL AGREEMENT THIS MORNING ON UPCOMING MERGER OF NRN/SRN
STREAM ENERGY BY LT WEEKEND. POTENT SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW SPINNING
NR THE FOUR CORNERS THIS MORNING WILL WOBBLE NEWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS SAT BFR PHASING W/NRN STREAM SW DIGGING THROUGH THE NRN
PLAINS SUN. NET RESULT ACRS THE LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL BE A VIGOROUS
PCPN SHIELD ON SUNDAY ALG NOSE OF LL MSTR SURGE INVOF DEEPENING SFC
REFLECTION. CONSENSUS TRACK OF SFC FTR OVERHEAD WOULD HERALD SIG
PROMISE FOR A MUCH NEEDED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT.

SECONDARY PRECIP MAX LIKELY TO DVLP AHD OF DIGGING NRN STREAM SYS
ACRS THE WRN LAKES LT SUN NIGHT/MON AM HWVR EWD TRANSLATION OF
MERGED FNTL ZONE UNCERTAIN W/FAIRLY SIG SPREAD INDICATED IN 00Z
GUIDANCE. HWVR ALLBLEND SOLUTION PROVIDES FOR A DECENT MIDDLE GROUND
CONFINING HIGHER POPS EAST. NRN STREAM CYCLONE TO THEN CUTOFF OVR
THE NRN LAKES MID PD BFR SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LT
WEEK.

OTRWS W/CWA NESTLED IN ALG SUBSIDENT PERIPHERY OF UPR TROUGH AXIS
TUE ONWARD...NO NEED TO CARRY ALLBLEND LOW CHC POPS THROUGH DYS 5-7.
INCREASING NWRLY FLW ALOFT AND DEEPENING CAA WEDGE XPCD THROUGH THE
WEEK W/COOLING TEMPS THROUGHOUT. ALLBLEND TEMPS LIKELY A BETTER FIT
VS PURE MOS GUIDANCE ESP LTR PDS AS GEM/ECMWF BLEND QUITE A BIT
COLDER AND POINTING TO A FROST THREAT AS EARLY AS WED AM. HWVR THIS
THREAT LIKELY THEREAFTER W/GEM/ECWMF INDICATING A HARD FREEZE PSBL
BOTH THU NIGHT AND AGAIN FRI NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE IS GRADUALLY SCOURING
OUT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AND SLOW
ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER DEWPOINTS AT KSBN SUGGEST VERY LOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR BR JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KFWA REMAINS ON THE
EDGE OF DENSER FOG JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUSPECT DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT HERE TOO BUT SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 170808
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
408 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170808
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
408 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170808
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
408 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170808
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
408 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

GFS AND EURO ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE JUST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY
NIGHT THOUGH AND PERSIST INTO MID WEEK. AFTER THAT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170742
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 170742
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

CLEARING PER SATELLITE ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S HAVE ALLOWED WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND GOES
UNTIL 9AM. AS DRIER AIR BEGINS FILTERING BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS MORNING EXPECTING FOG CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AND EVENTUALLY LIFT
OUT.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...CONDITIONS DO NOT GET MUCH BETTER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SEEMED REASONABLE FOR TEMPS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON STILL ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
THEN BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WILL GET EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THIS AREA. LIFT WITH THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY STRONG AND MOISTURE QUITE ABUNDANT. HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS ON SUNDAY TO
CATEGORICAL BASED ON GOOD CONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE
MORE  FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WERE CHANCES ARE INCREASED FROM ISOLATED TO CHANCE OR SCATTERED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 170534
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
134 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE IS GRADUALLY SCOURING
OUT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AND SLOW
ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER DEWPOINTS AT KSBN SUGGEST VERY LOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR BR JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KFWA REMAINS ON THE
EDGE OF DENSER FOG JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUSPECT DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT HERE TOO BUT SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 170534
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
134 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE IS GRADUALLY SCOURING
OUT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AND SLOW
ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER DEWPOINTS AT KSBN SUGGEST VERY LOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR BR JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KFWA REMAINS ON THE
EDGE OF DENSER FOG JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUSPECT DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT HERE TOO BUT SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 170534
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
134 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE IS GRADUALLY SCOURING
OUT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AND SLOW
ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE HAS ALLOWED SOME FOG TO DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWER DEWPOINTS AT KSBN SUGGEST VERY LOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG BUT COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR BR JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS. KFWA REMAINS ON THE
EDGE OF DENSER FOG JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST. SUSPECT DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL WIN OUT HERE TOO BUT SOME MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 170508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 170508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1258 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

AS CLEARING CONTINUES...FOG WILL PERSIST AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE
WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN TO VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 170230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/0300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RAMPED UP THE FOG AS SKIES ARE CLEARING...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THE
TEMPERATURE IS NEARING ITS DEW POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 170230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/0300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RAMPED UP THE FOG AS SKIES ARE CLEARING...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THE
TEMPERATURE IS NEARING ITS DEW POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 170146
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 170146
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 945 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES...HAD TO
EXTEND POPS THROUGH 11 PM. OTHERWISE...BROUGHT PARTIAL CLEARING IN
PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 18Z SUPERBLEND. THIS...ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ALLOW FOR FOG TO DEVELOP AT
ANY TIME. WILL RAMP IT UP TO AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FROM PATCHY FOG.
HOWEVER...WITH MOS SUGGESTING SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN...WILL
NOT BE GOING WITH HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIWX 162346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WIL GO CALM BENEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY QUICKLY IN AREAS WITH
CLEARING. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH DENSE FOG AT KSBN SINCE DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S...BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S AT KFWA... AND IF SKIES CLEAR
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 162346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WIL GO CALM BENEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY QUICKLY IN AREAS WITH
CLEARING. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH DENSE FOG AT KSBN SINCE DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S...BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S AT KFWA... AND IF SKIES CLEAR
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 162346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WIL GO CALM BENEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY QUICKLY IN AREAS WITH
CLEARING. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH DENSE FOG AT KSBN SINCE DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S...BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S AT KFWA... AND IF SKIES CLEAR
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 162346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
746 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S. FRIDAY WILL BE A NICE DAY AROUND THE REGION WITH
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS WIL GO CALM BENEATH THIS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP PRETTY QUICKLY IN AREAS WITH
CLEARING. AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH DENSE FOG AT KSBN SINCE DRY
AIR ADVECTION HAS DROPPED DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 40S...BUT
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 50S AT KFWA... AND IF SKIES CLEAR
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...THERE IS A CHANCE DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BENTLEY
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 162335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 162335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 162335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 162335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE...COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT PER MOS. ALSO...PULLED POPS EXCEPT ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 162302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 162302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO
FAR OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE
PERIODS. THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER
PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS RAPID EROSION OF LOW CLOUD CONTINUES ACROSS THE
AREA.

THIS CLEARING SETS THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS
WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAKE IND DOWN TO MVFR WITH A BCFG MENTION...ELSEWHERE WILL GO
DOWN TO AT LEAST TEMPO IFR NEAR DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
VFR BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE LARGELY VARIABLE AND BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIWX 161953
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 161953
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 161953
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 161953
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
353 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA INTO MID AFTERNOON.
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT... AND TO ALLOW CLEARING. SOME RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS...CLEARING SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... LEFT FOG OUT FOR NOW AS MUCH DRIER AIR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE TO
NEAR 10C WITH PLENTY OF SUN. VERY CHILLY LAKE MICHIGAN WATER TEMPS
JUST ABOVE FREEZING MAY CAUSE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
TO SUBSTANTIALLY FALL AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...UPPER LEVEL LOW SETS ITS SIGHTS ON THE
GREAT LAKES REGION

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND
RATHER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...LARGELY IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.

ON SATURDAY...A 500MB CUT OFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH/SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO ALBERTA/MANITOBA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE INCOMING RIDGE OVER
OUR CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN CWA
LATE SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WITH OUR CWA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
300MB JET...A BUILDING RIDGE AT 500MB...AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER AN
INCH THINKING THIS IS UNLIKELY AND WILL LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW.
ECMWF/GEM/NAM ARE ALL CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING. ALL IN
ALL...SAT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY DECENT DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 70S AND INCREASING CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY...BOTH ECMWF/GFS COME INTO GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR LARGE
SCALE PATTERN/SFC LOWS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

JET STREAM IS SPLIT IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WITH A STRONGER MORE
DEFINED NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOMEWHAT WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM/AT
LEAST OVER OUR AREA. SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE THE CWA IN AN AREA OF
INCREASED DIVERGENCE DUE TO COUPLED JETS. WE WILL BE CENTERED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM 100KT JET
STREAK OVER MINNESOTA/UPPER MI AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
SMALLER 90 KT JET OVER SE IN...KY...AND TN.

IN THE MID LEVELS...SPLIT BEGINS TO PHASE...WITH THE CUT OFF LOW
LIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY
AND CONSOLIDATING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW SINKING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF MANITOBA SUN NIGHT/MON AM. CWA IS UNDER REGION OF DPVA FROM THE
APPROACHING BROADER SCALE TROUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY CENTERED OVER KANSAS.

1000-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR APRIL. MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS OBSERVED ON THE 295K SFC...AND SFC WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

WITH AMPLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE
GOING HIGHER POPS FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINKING
THAT THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLIEST
HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS MAIN SOUTHERN
STREAM PV ANOMALY SWINGS THROUGH THE NW CWA...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

AS FOR THE EXTENDED...THE OVERALL SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500MB CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA
MONDAY MORNING...AND THE BROAD SFC LOW EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN MI TO
NORTHERN ONTARIO. SFC LOW OCCLUDES/FILLS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THE
500MB LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET STUCK IN THE DRY SLOT MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND BRINGS
THROUGH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES THAT MAY/MAY NOT DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING CONSENSUS POPS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-LATE APRIL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE
50S...WITH LOWS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 30S AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 161850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 161850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 161850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 161850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 161850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 161850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
250 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROF WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TO ELIMINATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND
TO ALLOW SOME CLEARING. ADDED SOME MVFR FOG AT SBN FROM 09Z TO 13Z
WHERE SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIND 161828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR
OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE PERIODS.
THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 161828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR
OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE PERIODS.
THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR
OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE PERIODS.
THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AND ON INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A GRADUAL THINNING OUT OF THE CLOUD COVER FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH A LIGHT
GRADIENT AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...IT MAY TAKE AWHILE FOR
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE. MODEL DATA SUGGEST MORE
PRONOUNCED DRYING PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

IF SKIES CLEAR OUT FASTER THAN EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY WILL GET KICKED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. LIFT SHOULD BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN
THE NEGATIVE TILT NATURE OF THE TROUGH...SO PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE HIGH AS A RESULT. WILL BRING IN POPS BY LATE
SATURDAY...AND GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS INDICATE THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE...BUT ARE PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR
OFF. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY IN THOSE PERIODS.
THE MOS LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK OK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 161817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 161817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 161817
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
217 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO SET UP FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AS ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT A DEEP...BROAD LOW MOVING TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SETTING UP SHOP...ALMOST CREATING A WINTER LIKE PATTERN.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES POISED TO PUSH ACROSS
INDIANA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THE MOMENT...BEST CHANCES LOOK
TO BE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LATER PERIOD OF THE FORECAST
CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SHIRT WAVE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AMID
THE CYCLONIC FLOW...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE FALLS GREATLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.

HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER THAN MEXMOS ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 161658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1258 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  MOSTLY DRY AND
MILD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION AND CLOSED UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  MODELS EJECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND MERGE IT WITH
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
TEMPERATURES BECOMING COOLER AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXTENDING SOUTH
TO WESTERN TENNESSEE.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEING
PRODUCED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

RAPID REFRESH MODEL INDICATES NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY...WHILE SHOWERS BECOME LESS NUMEROUS
ELSEWHERE AFTER SUNRISE.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN SECTIONS AND LIKELY POPS IN OUR EAST TODAY.

CLOUDS WILL KEEP HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TODAY...BUT LOWER 70S ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT THERE LATER TODAY.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE DECREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVES OUR WAY BY FRIDAY.  WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LOWS NEAR OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THE
MIDDLE 50S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR REGION. MODELS ALSO MOVE
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AS THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. STARTS TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST.  AS THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST MODELS MOVE A
SURFACE LOW INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH FAR SOUTHWEST PARTS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AND THEN NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL
SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.  ONLY
MENTIONED THUNDER IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS MODELS ONLY
HAVE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES LESS THAN A 100 J/KG.  IN REGARDS TO
TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON MOST PERIODS.  HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY.  LOWS
WILL BE NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY MORNING AND IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE
SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LONG TERM.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COUPLE OF
FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWERING CHANCES MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY.

MODELS DO DIFFER ON WHETHER RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN RAIN WITH A FRONT AND THE ECMWF REMAINING DRY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY RELATIVELY HIGH THAT FAR OUT...STUCK WITH THE
SUPERBLEND LOW POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COLDER THAN AVERAGE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 161800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST 4-5 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED.

SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CLEARING HAD WORKED HALF WAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS...CONTINUING
TO WORK EAST AS DIRTY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BUILDS NORTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS DRY OUR DRAMATICALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING...SIGNALING A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE AT 1 OR LESS...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP SOME DIURNAL MVFR FOR NOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIWX 161608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1208 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KSBN EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
THROUGH. KFWA LIKELY TO SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AS DRY LOW
LEVEL WEDGE FROM DEPARTING RIDGE HANGS TOUGH. TOP DOWN SATURATION
PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD MVFR CIGS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER TAF
ISSUANCE AT KSBN AND KFWA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AT KSBN NEAR SFC TROUGH THIS MORNING.
TRAILING SFC TROUGH DOES GRADUALLY TRAIL EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
INDIANA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
ADDITONAL SHOWERS NEAR KFWA GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NEAR SFC
LAYER.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 161608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1208 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KSBN EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
THROUGH. KFWA LIKELY TO SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AS DRY LOW
LEVEL WEDGE FROM DEPARTING RIDGE HANGS TOUGH. TOP DOWN SATURATION
PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD MVFR CIGS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER TAF
ISSUANCE AT KSBN AND KFWA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AT KSBN NEAR SFC TROUGH THIS MORNING.
TRAILING SFC TROUGH DOES GRADUALLY TRAIL EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
INDIANA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
ADDITONAL SHOWERS NEAR KFWA GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NEAR SFC
LAYER.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 161608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1208 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KSBN EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
THROUGH. KFWA LIKELY TO SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AS DRY LOW
LEVEL WEDGE FROM DEPARTING RIDGE HANGS TOUGH. TOP DOWN SATURATION
PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD MVFR CIGS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER TAF
ISSUANCE AT KSBN AND KFWA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AT KSBN NEAR SFC TROUGH THIS MORNING.
TRAILING SFC TROUGH DOES GRADUALLY TRAIL EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
INDIANA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
ADDITONAL SHOWERS NEAR KFWA GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NEAR SFC
LAYER.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 161608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1208 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1105 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
AROUND TODAY. THESE CHANCES WILL MOVE ON OUT OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

COMPACT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD/WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY
THIS MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 69 AS CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/THETA-E
ADVECTION ON EASTERN FLANK OF CIRC LIFTS THROUGH. MAY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED (NEEDED) RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED A HALF INCH GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEAR 9C) AND LOW CHANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) OR BACKGROUND FLOW/FORCING FOR THUNDER
CHANCES...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER INTO AT LEAST
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS UNDER
VORTICITY CENTER.

TRAILING SFC TROUGH WILL THEN EDGE SLOWLY EAST INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS AFTN/EVE. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING/CONVERGENCE, SOME DIURNAL
HEATING, AND ADDITIONAL/WEAKER SHORTWAVE FILAMENTS EMBEDDED IN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH TO FORCE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THIS FEATURE.
CONTEMPLATED REMOVING SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER/LACKING
INSTABILITY...BUT GIVEN FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING AND OVERSPREAD OF
DRIER AIR OVER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BL OPTED TO RETAIN MENTION
FOR NOW. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS/MOISTURE TO LIMIT TEMP RISES
SOMEWHAT TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

QUIET END TO THE WEEK STILL ON TAP AS CONFLUENCE ALOFT MAINTAINS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF SLOWLY APPROACHING
CUTOFF LOW. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND WITH 850MB
TEMPS AROUND 8C...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 70S. MAV GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS SOLID MID 70S AND THIS IS
CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY GIVEN NEARLY FULL
INSOLATION AND ANOTHER DAY OF DEEP PBL MIXING. GUIDANCE HAS
STRUGGLED IN THESE SETUPS LATELY AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP BY
SEVERAL DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES ARE A TOUCH WARMER FOR
SATURDAY BUT MAY BE PARTIALLY OFFSET BY INCREASING MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY AND HAVE BUMPED
THOSE UP AS WELL.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS
FIRST SLUG OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND 295-300K SYSTEM
RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIFT INTO THE AREA. MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT/VORTICITY FIELDS ALSO SHOW A DECENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION WITH GOOD 700MB FGEN AND OMEGA
SIGNATURES. LATEST MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD GIVEN DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (PW VALUES CLIMB TO
AROUND 1.25 INCHES). DID STOP JUST SHORT OF CATEGORICAL
THOUGH...SINCE IT IS STILL ROUGHLY THREE DAYS OUT. EXPECT A BRIEF
BREAK SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SECONDARY WAVE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LITTLE
LEFT OF OLD CUTOFF LOW BY THIS POINT...AS IT IS ABSORBED BY
STRENGTHENING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE. STILL...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
A DECENT RESIDUAL VORT MAX CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND LOW
END LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED. BEHEMOTH CLOSED LOW THEN MEANDERS
OVER ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...EACH DAY BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED IF BULK OF THE PERIOD
REMAINED DRY GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALY. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP US ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THOUGH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM EDT THU APR 16 2015

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT KSBN EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS
THROUGH. KFWA LIKELY TO SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AS DRY LOW
LEVEL WEDGE FROM DEPARTING RIDGE HANGS TOUGH. TOP DOWN SATURATION
PROCESS WILL EVENTUALLY YIELD MVFR CIGS AT OR SHORTLY AFTER TAF
ISSUANCE AT KSBN AND KFWA LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AT KSBN NEAR SFC TROUGH THIS MORNING.
TRAILING SFC TROUGH DOES GRADUALLY TRAIL EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
INDIANA THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE...AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
ADDITONAL SHOWERS NEAR KFWA GIVEN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST NEAR SFC
LAYER.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






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