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000
FXUS63 KIND 262305
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
605 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS OUR WAY.  THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AND A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN TO OUR SYSTEM BY TUESDAY.  THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  FINALLY THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS COLDER
AIR MOVES BACK INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SATELLITE INDICATED LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA AND MOST OF
ILLINOIS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...EXPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN.

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS.  THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE
TONIGHT AND CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.  I WAS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH MY TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...AS SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY.  NERVELESS IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOWEST WINDS CHILLS NEAR
15 BELOW.  THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF OUR REGION.

FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. EVEN THOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE COLD...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 4 BELOW NORTHEAST TO 6 ABOVE SOUTH AND
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ALL
MODELS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR
REGION.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE ALL SNOW OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY START OUT AS SNOW AND THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY.  THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
DURING THIS CHANGE OVER.   WENT CLOSE TO HPC SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH
INDICATED 5 TO 7 INCHES FAR NORTH TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO SOUTH.
THE NAM INDICATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS WAS ALMOST 12 HOURS LATER IN ENDING
PRECIPITATION.  WENT WITH A BLEND WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MOST
AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A LITTLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY CUT
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 601 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT VFR EXPECTED. POSSIBLY SOME MVFR IN SOME OF THE WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. MOST
CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP AND SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE
OVER THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>044-048-049-057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







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000
FXUS63 KIWX 262055
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN GENERALLY DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LOCALIZED
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM -4 TO -8... WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD PROVIDING DRY WX WITH CONTD
ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES. ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE DRY WX SHOULD BE
FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA WHICH NAM/NMM SUGGEST WILL BE IMPACTED BY
SINGLE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING NNE FROM CHICAGO. NEGATIVES FOR
SGFNT ACCUMS IN OUR AREA INCLUDE INVERSION HEIGHT BLO 5KFT AND DRY
ARCTIC AIRMASS ADVECTING IN WITH DWPTS UPSTREAM WELL BLO ZERO. ALSO
PER ARW AND IWX LOCAL WRF... WKNG GRADIENT OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO
RESULT IN LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THE SINGLE BAND...KEEPING HEAVIEST AMOUNTS TO OUR WEST
AND OFFSHORE. FCST ACCUMS IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS NRN LAPORTE/SWRN
BERRIEN COUNTIES... BUT AS WITH ANY SINGLE BAND... THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CLOSELY. OTRWS LIGHT GRADIENT AND DECREASING CLOUDINESS SHOULD
PROVIDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FCST MINS
GENERALLY A LITTLE BLO 12Z GUIDANCE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH
LOWS 0F TO -10F...COLDEST NE AND WARMEST NEAR THE LAKE. DECOUPLING
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS... ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT... SO STILL EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO GENERALLY STAY ABOVE
ADVISORY CRITERIA (-15F)... BUT SHOULD BE CLOSE.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK W-SW FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL IL/IN. LOWERING INVERSION AND CONTD DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
LIMIT LAKE EFFECT TO JUST A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS SW MICHIGAN. LOW
LEVEL THERMAL TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE CWA MUCH OF THE DAY... SO
DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND WINDS BACKING TO SWLY... EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM...

...SIGNS OF A BRIEF WARM UP NEXT WEEK...BUT MAY BE A ROCKY ROAD TO
GET THERE...

FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY AND QUIET...BUT WELL BELOW NORMAL
AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. ONE MORE
BITTERLY COLD NIGHT IN STORE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS LIKELY BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE AREA WARMING INTO THE TEENS ON SATURDAY.

EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASED LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO CONVERGE SOMEWHAT ON GENERAL
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF QPF WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO 4 TO 6 INCH
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD USING CLIMO SNOW RATIOS OF
13:1 HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SE HALF OR SO AND
HIGH LIKELY NW GIVEN CONVERGENCE OF SOLUTIONS AND HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND CONCERNS...BUT GIVEN
EXPECTED AMOUNTS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN
LATER FORECASTS FOR PART OR ALL OF THE AREA.

TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION BY MONDAY
MORNING WITH ZONAL FLOW STILL IN PLACE. THIS WILL KEEP ANY ARCTIC
INTRUSIONS BOTTLED UP FURTHER NORTH FOR THE MOMENT...BUT DON`T GET
YOUR HOPES UP ON NO MORE BLASTS OF COLD AIR AS SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING
WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE SW STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WARMER TEMPERATURES (NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL) IN THE TUES TO WEDS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...IT MAY COME AT A
COST AS POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING IN OVERRUNNING SCENARIO AHEAD OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. GFS/ECMWF HAVE LINED UP ON TRACK OF SFC
FEATURES FROM ROUGHLY MILWAUKEE TO ALPENA. HOWEVER...NEW ECMWF HAS
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON TIMING OF SYSTEM WITH PRECIP NOT ARRIVING
TILL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE DISMISSED FOR THE TIME BEING GIVEN
AMOUNT OF DYNAMICS IN PLACE WITH WARM FRONT AND OVERRUNNING SETUP.
THAT BEING SAID...HELD OFF ON TRENDS OF SOME SURROUNDING OFFICES OF
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR THE TIME BEING. DID TRENDS HIGHS TUESDAY WARMER
WITH EVERYONE ABOVE FREEZING ON TUESDAY AND HINTS OF TEMPS WELL INTO
THE MID 40S (ECMWF EVEN HINTING AT 50S BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT).

ONCE THE TROUGH EXITS THE AREA...COLDER AIR WILL RUSH BACK IN AND
WHATEVER MAY HAVE MELTED WILL REFREEZE BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
BACK ON SUPERBLEND IN LATER PERIODS THAT WERE A BIT OVERZEALOUS AT
THIS STAGE OF THE GAME.

&&


.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA ATTM BUT EXPECT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR BKN MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTN. JUST SCT STRATO CU EXPECTED AT FWA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOW VFR BKN DECK LIKELY
LINGERING AT SBN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO NW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 262041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS OUR WAY.  THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AND A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN TO OUR SYSTEM BY TUESDAY.  THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  FINALLY THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS COLDER
AIR MOVES BACK INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SATELLITE INDICATED LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA AND MOST OF
ILLINOIS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...EXPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN.

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS.  THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE
TONIGHT AND CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.  I WAS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH MY TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...AS SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY.  NERVELESS IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOWEST WINDS CHILLS NEAR
15 BELOW.  THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF OUR REGION.

FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. EVEN THOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE COLD...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 4 BELOW NORTHEAST TO 6 ABOVE SOUTH AND
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ALL
MODELS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR
REGION.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE ALL SNOW OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY START OUT AS SNOW AND THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY.  THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
DURING THIS CHANGE OVER.   WENT CLOSE TO HPC SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH
INDICATED 5 TO 7 INCHES FAR NORTH TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO SOUTH.
THE NAM INDICATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS WAS ALMOST 12 HOURS LATER IN ENDING
PRECIPITATION.  WENT WITH A BLEND WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MOST
AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A LITTLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY CUT
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.


&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>044-048-049-057.

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 262041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS OUR WAY.  THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AND A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN TO OUR SYSTEM BY TUESDAY.  THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  FINALLY THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS COLDER
AIR MOVES BACK INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SATELLITE INDICATED LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA AND MOST OF
ILLINOIS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...EXPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN.

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS.  THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE
TONIGHT AND CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.  I WAS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH MY TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...AS SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY.  NERVELESS IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOWEST WINDS CHILLS NEAR
15 BELOW.  THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF OUR REGION.

FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. EVEN THOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE COLD...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 4 BELOW NORTHEAST TO 6 ABOVE SOUTH AND
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ALL
MODELS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR
REGION.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE ALL SNOW OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY START OUT AS SNOW AND THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY.  THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
DURING THIS CHANGE OVER.   WENT CLOSE TO HPC SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH
INDICATED 5 TO 7 INCHES FAR NORTH TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO SOUTH.
THE NAM INDICATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS WAS ALMOST 12 HOURS LATER IN ENDING
PRECIPITATION.  WENT WITH A BLEND WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MOST
AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A LITTLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY CUT
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.


&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>044-048-049-057.

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 262041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS OUR WAY.  THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AND A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN TO OUR SYSTEM BY TUESDAY.  THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  FINALLY THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS COLDER
AIR MOVES BACK INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SATELLITE INDICATED LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA AND MOST OF
ILLINOIS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...EXPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN.

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS.  THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE
TONIGHT AND CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.  I WAS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH MY TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...AS SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY.  NERVELESS IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOWEST WINDS CHILLS NEAR
15 BELOW.  THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF OUR REGION.

FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. EVEN THOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE COLD...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 4 BELOW NORTHEAST TO 6 ABOVE SOUTH AND
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ALL
MODELS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR
REGION.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE ALL SNOW OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY START OUT AS SNOW AND THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY.  THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
DURING THIS CHANGE OVER.   WENT CLOSE TO HPC SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH
INDICATED 5 TO 7 INCHES FAR NORTH TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO SOUTH.
THE NAM INDICATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS WAS ALMOST 12 HOURS LATER IN ENDING
PRECIPITATION.  WENT WITH A BLEND WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MOST
AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A LITTLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY CUT
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.


&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>044-048-049-057.

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 262041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...PARTIAL
CLEARING WILL BE THE RULE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS OUR WAY.  THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ON TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY AND A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK MONDAY AND THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
RAIN TO OUR SYSTEM BY TUESDAY.  THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  FINALLY THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS COLDER
AIR MOVES BACK INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SATELLITE INDICATED LOTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS INDIANA AND MOST OF
ILLINOIS. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF
ILLINOIS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...EXPECT ONLY A FEW FLURRIES
THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASING CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SPREADS IN.

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS.  THERE SHOULD BE PRETTY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE
TONIGHT AND CUT TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.  I WAS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH MY TEMPERATURES HOWEVER...AS SKIES MAY NOT CLEAR
COMPLETELY.  NERVELESS IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN SECTIONS MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR LOWEST WINDS CHILLS NEAR
15 BELOW.  THUS WILL ISSUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF OUR REGION.

FRIDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. EVEN THOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE COLD...WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS
TEMPERATURES GIVEN A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 4 BELOW NORTHEAST TO 6 ABOVE SOUTH AND
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 20 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COLD BUT QUIET WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS IT MOVES TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN ALL
MODELS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS A UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS OUR
REGION.  LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE ALL SNOW OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY START OUT AS SNOW AND THEN
CHANGE TO RAIN SUNDAY.  THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
DURING THIS CHANGE OVER.   WENT CLOSE TO HPC SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH
INDICATED 5 TO 7 INCHES FAR NORTH TO MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO SOUTH.
THE NAM INDICATED PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY SUNDAY
EVENING...WHILE THE GFS WAS ALMOST 12 HOURS LATER IN ENDING
PRECIPITATION.  WENT WITH A BLEND WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING MOST
AREAS BY LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A MOS BLEND MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES MAY RISE A LITTLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY CUT
A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.


&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ021-
028>031-035>044-048-049-057.

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 261949
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 261949
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 261949
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 261949
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FOR THE MOST PART...MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH IN THE BIG PICTURE THAT
THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.
HOWEVER...SOME CHANGES NOTED BELOW.

UPPER FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL
ALONG WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND
FORCING ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND RAMP UP TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES IN. GFS LOOKS JUST TOO AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN WARM
AND MOIST AIR...EVEN BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 TO FAR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. PREFER GOING CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE.

THUS CUT SUPERBLEND/S TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STILL
SOME PRECIPITATION TYPE QUESTIONS WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE WARM AIR. WILL
KEEP A WINTRY MIX GOING MONDAY NIGHT WITH FREEZING RAIN MENTIONED
EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL SNEAK BACK IN TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TO GO RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.

UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NOT CONFIDENT THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR BUT WILL KEEP TOKEN 20 POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 261717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INDIANA MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT... OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS... WITH LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY -4 TO -8.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVG ACROSS
INDIANA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
LAPORTE COUNTY WHERE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRDLY INCREASE BY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA ATTM BUT EXPECT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR BKN MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTN. JUST SCT STRATO CU EXPECTED AT FWA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOW VFR BKN DECK LIKELY
LINGERING AT SBN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO NW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 261717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INDIANA MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT... OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS... WITH LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY -4 TO -8.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVG ACROSS
INDIANA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
LAPORTE COUNTY WHERE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRDLY INCREASE BY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA ATTM BUT EXPECT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR BKN MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTN. JUST SCT STRATO CU EXPECTED AT FWA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOW VFR BKN DECK LIKELY
LINGERING AT SBN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO NW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 261717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INDIANA MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT... OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS... WITH LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY -4 TO -8.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVG ACROSS
INDIANA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
LAPORTE COUNTY WHERE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRDLY INCREASE BY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA ATTM BUT EXPECT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR BKN MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTN. JUST SCT STRATO CU EXPECTED AT FWA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOW VFR BKN DECK LIKELY
LINGERING AT SBN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO NW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 261717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INDIANA MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT... OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS... WITH LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY -4 TO -8.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVG ACROSS
INDIANA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
LAPORTE COUNTY WHERE BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRDLY INCREASE BY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA ATTM BUT EXPECT
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY FOR BKN MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP AND
PERSIST MUCH OF THE AFTN. JUST SCT STRATO CU EXPECTED AT FWA
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A LOW VFR BKN DECK LIKELY
LINGERING AT SBN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO NW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 261646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 261646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 261646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 261646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

PREDOMINANT MVFR EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS...THEN VFR.

ORGANIZED SNOW HAS COME TO AN END AT THE TAF SITES...BUT SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IF A SNOW SHOWER HITS A SITE.

OTHERWISE EXPECT GENERAL MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD. MOST CEILINGS WILL BREAK UP OVERNIGHT...WITH PERHAPS
THE EXCEPTION OF A LAKE BAND OF CLOUDS THAT WILL PASS SOMEWHERE OVER
THE AREA.

VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 261554
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INDIANA MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT... OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS... WITH LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY -4 TO -8.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVG ACROSS
INDIANA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
LAPORTE COUNTY WHERE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRDLY INCREASE BY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS
BACK OVER NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF
THESE LAKES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. TRENDED NEW 12Z
TAFS TOWARD A LITTLE SLOWER ENDING OF SNOW AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 261554
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INDIANA MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT... OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS... WITH LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY -4 TO -8.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVG ACROSS
INDIANA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
LAPORTE COUNTY WHERE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRDLY INCREASE BY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS
BACK OVER NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF
THESE LAKES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. TRENDED NEW 12Z
TAFS TOWARD A LITTLE SLOWER ENDING OF SNOW AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 261554
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1054 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY END ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER INDIANA MOVES
RAPIDLY EAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA TONIGHT... OTHERWISE DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS... WITH LOWS TONIGHT
GENERALLY -4 TO -8.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVG ACROSS
INDIANA THIS MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF FROM W-E ACROSS OUR CWA ATTM. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
MAY SUPPORT SCT SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL DIMINISHING
TREND TO POPS GENERALLY MAINTAINED. ONLY EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS
LAPORTE COUNTY WHERE VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO GRDLY INCREASE BY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS
BACK OVER NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF
THESE LAKES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. TRENDED NEW 12Z
TAFS TOWARD A LITTLE SLOWER ENDING OF SNOW AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 261420
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
920 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261500 TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
SNOW DIMINISHES. AT KIND RAISED PREDOMINANT CEILINGS ABOVE BKN020
AFTER 16Z BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED BY 18Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
TODAY. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOSTLY
MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS ENERGY SHEARS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...AROUND THE BASE OF GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.

WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST...10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 261106
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
606 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
AROUND AND INCH OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY
FROM 10 TO AROUND 15. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS
BACK OVER NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF
THESE LAKES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. TRENDED NEW 12Z
TAFS TOWARD A LITTLE SLOWER ENDING OF SNOW AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.



&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 261106
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
606 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
AROUND AND INCH OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY
FROM 10 TO AROUND 15. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS
BACK OVER NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF
THESE LAKES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. TRENDED NEW 12Z
TAFS TOWARD A LITTLE SLOWER ENDING OF SNOW AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.



&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 261106
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
606 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
AROUND AND INCH OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY
FROM 10 TO AROUND 15. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS
BACK OVER NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS OVER LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT
CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF
THESE LAKES...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. TRENDED NEW 12Z
TAFS TOWARD A LITTLE SLOWER ENDING OF SNOW AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND TRENDS. INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD FOR SOMEWHAT LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS.



&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 261039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
538 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 538 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
TODAY. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOSTLY
MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS ENERGY SHEARS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...AROUND THE BASE OF GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.

WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST...10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 261039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
538 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 538 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
TODAY. EVEN AFTER THE SNOW ENDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MOSTLY
MVFR CEILINGS TO HANG AROUND TONIGHT AS ENERGY SHEARS ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...AROUND THE BASE OF GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST TROUGH.

WINDS WILL BACK FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH TO NORTHWEST...10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260945
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
445 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
AROUND AND INCH OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY
FROM 10 TO AROUND 15. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH LIMITED LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FAVOR A BLEND OF HIGH RES MODELS...INCLUDING
THE ARW...THE NMM AND 12KM NAM. UPSTREAM LAKE HURON AND EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH MOISTURE FLUX INTO THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE ON THESE LAKES. EARLY
THIS MORNING...ARCTIC AIR WAS SPREADING UNDER THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WITH BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES. READINGS AT 3 AM EDT INCLUDED TEMPS
AS COLD AS -22 OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN AN INITIAL
NORTHEAST FLOW...EXPECT SNOW TO END LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS AND ENDING ISENTROPIC
LIFT PER 285K SURFACE. KEPT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND OR UNDER AN
INCH...WITH THE LIGHTEST AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIMIT AMOUNTS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OFFSET DIURNAL WARMING TODAY WITH WITH LIMITED TEMPERATURES
RISES. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AN ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
SYSTEMS POSSIBLE.

PERIOD WILL BEGIN QUIET AND VERY COLD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN
WITH COLDEST READINGS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND FAR EAST WHERE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM MOST OF NIGHT. LOWS
TO BOTTOM OUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

FOCUS QUICKLY SHIFTS TO SNOW MAKER FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LOW
SINKS SOUTH ALONG WEST COAST OF CA THIS WEEKEND. WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION RAMPS
UP IN RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES WITH GULF OF MEXICO
BECOMING TAPPED. GFS40 AND ECMWF BOTH SHOWING 3-3.5 G/KG MIXING
RATIOS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WITH LONG DURATION SYSTEM RELATIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIA METHOD CURRENTLY SUGGEST 5 TO 8 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW DGZ TO BE RATHER HIGH BUT DEEP IN THE 10-15KFT RANGE
WITH GOOD LIFT. THIS WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF SNOW RATIOS NEAR CLIMO
WHICH WOULD BE AROUND 13 TO 1. MODEL QPF SUPPORTIVE OF GARCIA
NUMBERS WITH GFS INDICATING 24HR AMOUNTS A LITTLE OVER THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND ECMWF A LITTLE OVER SIX TENTHS. ANY
POTENTIAL MESOSCALE BANDING WITH THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT COULD LEAD
TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IT STILL REMAINS EARLY FOR THOSE DETAILS
AS WELL AS ANY HEADLINES BUT MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AND
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN PRETTY GOOD LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WANTED TO BUMP
POPS FURTHER INTO CATEGORICAL RANGE BUT ENDED UP STANDING OUT
COMPARED TO NEIGHBORING OFFICES. THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN HIGH LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW.

AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MONDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPS SOUTH INTO WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE THIS STILL REMAINS WELL INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...CONCERN IS GROWING FOR A SIGNIFICANT PCPN EVENT WITH A
VARIETY OF PCPN TYPES POSSIBLE. MODELS HINTING AT A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WATER
VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS SOURCE MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN READY TO BE TAPPED. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WITH GULF OF MEXICO TAP ALSO BEING SHOWN LEADING TO A VERY
WET SYSTEM WITH 4-6 G/KG MIXING RATIOS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS NEARING AN INCH. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN IN RATHER GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PCPN STARTING AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION QUITE STRONG WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO RISE WELL ABOVE
ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE SFC TEMPS LOOK TO LAG BY SEVERAL HOURS
AND BEGIN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. THUS FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL
GROWING IF THESE SOLUTIONS INDEED VERIFY. 1030MB HIGH WILL BE
DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT IN GOOD LOCATION TO SLOW RETREAT
OF LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE WHILE WARM AIR ADVECTION SURGES OVER TOP. IN
ADDITION...ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD GIVEN THE RECENT
PROLONGED COLD SPELL AND ANY LIQUID PCPN WILL CERTAINLY FREEZE
QUICKLY. THUS FELT IT PRUDENT TO INTRODUCE FREEZING RAIN CHANCES
INTO FORECAST AT THIS RATHER EXTENDED PROJECTION TIME. STILL PLENTY
OF TIME FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS AND EXPECT MANY CHANGES SO STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR SPREADS BACK
OVER NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS
OVER LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH
MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF THESE LAKES...SO
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TRANSITION
TIME FROM MVFR TO VFR...FOR NOW...HAVE SBN BECOMING VFR AT 14Z AND
FWA AT 23Z. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD STAY WEST OF SBN
THROUGH 06Z.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 260905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900 IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAF. MVFR OR IF CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL 13Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 260905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900 IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAF. MVFR OR IF CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL 13Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 260905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900 IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAF. MVFR OR IF CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL 13Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 260905
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
405 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW AROUND THE AREA FOR TODAY AND
BRING COLD AIR IN TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE COLD
AIR AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY NIGHT A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE AREA AND THEN COULD SEE SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO END THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WAVE COULD BRING
SOME CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX THAT COULD INCLUDE ICE MONDAY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT WITH SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF
THE AREA WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AS A CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH DRY MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST IT WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY PROGRESSING SOUTH...BUT COULD
SEE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THERE AS WELL DURING THE MORNING. AMOUNTS
FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL LOOK ON TRACK AND WILL GO RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED WITH 1-2 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST...HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH
CENTRAL AND LESS THAN HALF AN INCH SOUTH.

THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHOULD HEAD OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING...BUT
MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON SO LEFT A CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN GUIDANCE
AVERAGE WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW TO START THE DAY AND COLD ADVECTION TO
FINISH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY FLURRIES EARLY IN
THE TONIGHT PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ENOUGH TO SHUT DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AND
A CONSENSUS HANDLED THIS WELL. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS ARE
UNLIKELY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FRIDAY
NIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WENT WITH RAW
MODEL NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO IN PLACES. SATURDAY
WARM ADVECTION GETS GOING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 20S.

THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM IS REALLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAVE
GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME LOOKS
LIKE 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHWEST WITH AROUND AN INCH CENTRAL. THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COOL
ENOUGH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900 IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAF. MVFR OR IF CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL 13Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 260819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900 IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAF. MVFR OR IF CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL 13Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 260819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900 IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAF. MVFR OR IF CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL 13Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 260819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900 IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAF. MVFR OR IF CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL 13Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 260819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900 IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TAF. MVFR OR IF CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW
UNTIL 13Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 260756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1126 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 260756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1126 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 260756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1126 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 260756
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY COMPLEX LONG TERM FORECAST AS IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL LATE
FEBRUARY/EARLY MARCH OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH ALL PRECIPITATION
TYPES POSSIBLE AT ONE TIME OR ANOTHER. GAINING MORE CONFIDENCE PER
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN
ISSUE. ALSO...00Z GFS AND ECMWF THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NEVADA UPPER TROUGH WILL SLING
VARIOUS UPPER WAVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE WAVES COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN BY MONDAY
NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN A MOSTLY WET PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY DAY
WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVING OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS ON SUNDAY IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. THEN...AS WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REALLY KICK
IN AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST ARCTIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOSTLY
RAIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WAS COORDINATED WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES...WHO HAVE SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS.

REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL THICKNESSES
AND EXTENDED MOS. EXCEPT...MOS FOR MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MOS...LOOKS TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1126 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIWX 260659
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
AROUND AND INCH OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY
AROUND 15. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGHLY SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT PER 00Z DVN RAOB WITH 35-45
KNOT 700 HPA WINDS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGHLY SHEARED
NATURE. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING TO ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NAM/RAP
SUGGEST STRONGEST FGEN FORCING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO MAY BE A BIT MORE
RESPECTABLE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER SPREADS BACK OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH
MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF THESE LAKES...SO
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TRANSITION
TIME FROM MVFR TO VFR...FOR NOW...HAVE SBN BECOMING VFR AT 14Z AND
FWA AT 23Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260659
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
AROUND AND INCH OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY
AROUND 15. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGHLY SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT PER 00Z DVN RAOB WITH 35-45
KNOT 700 HPA WINDS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGHLY SHEARED
NATURE. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING TO ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NAM/RAP
SUGGEST STRONGEST FGEN FORCING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO MAY BE A BIT MORE
RESPECTABLE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER SPREADS BACK OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH
MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF THESE LAKES...SO
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TRANSITION
TIME FROM MVFR TO VFR...FOR NOW...HAVE SBN BECOMING VFR AT 14Z AND
FWA AT 23Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260659
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
AROUND AND INCH OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY
AROUND 15. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGHLY SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT PER 00Z DVN RAOB WITH 35-45
KNOT 700 HPA WINDS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGHLY SHEARED
NATURE. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING TO ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NAM/RAP
SUGGEST STRONGEST FGEN FORCING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO MAY BE A BIT MORE
RESPECTABLE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER SPREADS BACK OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH
MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF THESE LAKES...SO
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TRANSITION
TIME FROM MVFR TO VFR...FOR NOW...HAVE SBN BECOMING VFR AT 14Z AND
FWA AT 23Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260659
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
159 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION EARLY
TODAY...LEAVING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH
AROUND AND INCH OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS TODAY ONLY
AROUND 15. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET BELOW ZERO LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGHLY SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT PER 00Z DVN RAOB WITH 35-45
KNOT 700 HPA WINDS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGHLY SHEARED
NATURE. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING TO ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NAM/RAP
SUGGEST STRONGEST FGEN FORCING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO MAY BE A BIT MORE
RESPECTABLE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH WEAK LIFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA EARLY TODAY AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER SPREADS BACK OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA FROM LOWER MICHIGAN. UPSTREAM CONDITIONS OVER
LAKE HURON AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH
MOISTURE GIVEN NEAR 100 PERCENT ICE COVERAGE OF THESE LAKES...SO
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER TODAY WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERIC LAYERS. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TRANSITION
TIME FROM MVFR TO VFR...FOR NOW...HAVE SBN BECOMING VFR AT 14Z AND
FWA AT 23Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 260431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1131 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1126 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY HAVE/HAD DETERIORATED TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING. BACK TO MVFR FOR MAJORITY OF THE
REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY A RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR AS THIS AREA DRIFT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.
TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY
12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE
AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW
BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR LINGER ON INTO
THIS EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW...AND POSSIBLY MAY LIFT
BACK TO VFR SOMETIME AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260313
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

0300Z UPDATE...DRIER LAYER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND ENCOMPASSING
SITES SUCH AS KIND AND KHUF PROVING TOO DRY FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP
AND REACH THE GROUND HERE...YET. SO HAVE PUSHED BACK -SN TIMING TO
ORIGINAL TIMING OF 07-8Z EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WILL REMAIN AT
KLAF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...POSSIBLY TAKING BREAKS
BUT GENERALLY STAYING PUT FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS/UPDATES FOLLOWS.

0115Z UPDATE...UPDATED KLAF/IND/HUF FOR EARLIER TIMING WITH RESPECT
TO -SHSN AND -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOONER AT THESE
SITES (AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KIND AND ABOUT NOW OR VERY SOON FOR KLAF
AND IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS FOR KHUF) BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AND OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260313
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

0300Z UPDATE...DRIER LAYER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND ENCOMPASSING
SITES SUCH AS KIND AND KHUF PROVING TOO DRY FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP
AND REACH THE GROUND HERE...YET. SO HAVE PUSHED BACK -SN TIMING TO
ORIGINAL TIMING OF 07-8Z EARLY THIS MORNING. -SN WILL REMAIN AT
KLAF FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...POSSIBLY TAKING BREAKS
BUT GENERALLY STAYING PUT FOR MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS/UPDATES FOLLOWS.

0115Z UPDATE...UPDATED KLAF/IND/HUF FOR EARLIER TIMING WITH RESPECT
TO -SHSN AND -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOONER AT THESE
SITES (AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KIND AND ABOUT NOW OR VERY SOON FOR KLAF
AND IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS FOR KHUF) BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AND OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260308
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 830 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

0115Z UPDATE...UPDATED KLAF/IND/HUF FOR EARLIER TIMING WITH RESPECT
TO -SHSN AND -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOONER AT THESE
SITES (AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KIND AND ABOUT NOW OR VERY SOON FOR KLAF
AND IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS FOR KHUF) BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AND OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260308
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 830 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

0115Z UPDATE...UPDATED KLAF/IND/HUF FOR EARLIER TIMING WITH RESPECT
TO -SHSN AND -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOONER AT THESE
SITES (AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KIND AND ABOUT NOW OR VERY SOON FOR KLAF
AND IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS FOR KHUF) BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AND OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260308
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 830 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

0115Z UPDATE...UPDATED KLAF/IND/HUF FOR EARLIER TIMING WITH RESPECT
TO -SHSN AND -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOONER AT THESE
SITES (AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KIND AND ABOUT NOW OR VERY SOON FOR KLAF
AND IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS FOR KHUF) BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AND OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260308
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 830 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

0115Z UPDATE...UPDATED KLAF/IND/HUF FOR EARLIER TIMING WITH RESPECT
TO -SHSN AND -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOONER AT THESE
SITES (AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KIND AND ABOUT NOW OR VERY SOON FOR KLAF
AND IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS FOR KHUF) BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AND OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260308
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 830 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

0115Z UPDATE...UPDATED KLAF/IND/HUF FOR EARLIER TIMING WITH RESPECT
TO -SHSN AND -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOONER AT THESE
SITES (AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KIND AND ABOUT NOW OR VERY SOON FOR KLAF
AND IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS FOR KHUF) BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AND OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 260308
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 942 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING RETURNS OVER NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SURFACE OBS ARE ONLY REPORTING
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER SEEMS TO
BE INHIBITING SNOW ALREADY IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS MENTIONED IN
EARLIER DISCUSSION. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS STILL EXPECTED
TO BE NORTH OF A TERRE HAUTE...CRAWFORDSVILLE...KOKOMO LINE. AREAS
NORTH OF THAT LINE CAN STILL EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ELSEWHERE...UP TO AN INCH OF SNOWFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 20S WITH NORTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 830 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

0115Z UPDATE...UPDATED KLAF/IND/HUF FOR EARLIER TIMING WITH RESPECT
TO -SHSN AND -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOONER AT THESE
SITES (AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KIND AND ABOUT NOW OR VERY SOON FOR KLAF
AND IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS FOR KHUF) BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AND OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260200
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
900 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGHLY SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT PER 00Z DVN RAOB WITH 35-45
KNOT 700 HPA WINDS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGHLY SHEARED
NATURE. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING TO ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NAM/RAP
SUGGEST STRONGEST FGEN FORCING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO MAY BE A BIT MORE
RESPECTABLE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260200
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
900 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGHLY SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT PER 00Z DVN RAOB WITH 35-45
KNOT 700 HPA WINDS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGHLY SHEARED
NATURE. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING TO ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NAM/RAP
SUGGEST STRONGEST FGEN FORCING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO MAY BE A BIT MORE
RESPECTABLE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260200
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
900 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGHLY SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT PER 00Z DVN RAOB WITH 35-45
KNOT 700 HPA WINDS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGHLY SHEARED
NATURE. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING TO ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NAM/RAP
SUGGEST STRONGEST FGEN FORCING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO MAY BE A BIT MORE
RESPECTABLE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260200
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
900 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGHLY SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT PER 00Z DVN RAOB WITH 35-45
KNOT 700 HPA WINDS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGHLY SHEARED
NATURE. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING TO ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NAM/RAP
SUGGEST STRONGEST FGEN FORCING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO MAY BE A BIT MORE
RESPECTABLE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260200
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
900 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

HIGHLY SHEARED UPPER LEVEL WAVE FROM WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE IS ALSO EVIDENT PER 00Z DVN RAOB WITH 35-45
KNOT 700 HPA WINDS. SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FEATURE SHOULD BE ON THE WANE HOWEVER DUE TO HIGHLY SHEARED
NATURE. ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN FORCING TO ALSO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH A
PROGRESSIVE WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AT
LEAST ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. NAM/RAP
SUGGEST STRONGEST FGEN FORCING TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
WEST/SOUTHEAST...WHERE MOISTURE PROFILES ALSO MAY BE A BIT MORE
RESPECTABLE. ALL IN ALL...CURRENT TRENDS SEEM TO SUPPORT PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS...EXCEPT PERHAPS
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. UPDATED
FORECAST SENT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLIGHTLY EARLIER ONSET ACROSS
THE WEST THIS EVENING AND TO INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 260133
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
833 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 830 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

0115Z UPDATE...UPDATED KLAF/IND/HUF FOR EARLIER TIMING WITH RESPECT
TO -SHSN AND -SN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOONER AT THESE
SITES (AROUND MIDNIGHT AT KIND AND ABOUT NOW OR VERY SOON FOR KLAF
AND IN LESS THAN TWO HOURS FOR KHUF) BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAIC
AND OBS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260042
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 260042
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260042
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260042
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260042
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260042
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
742 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS 18Z TAF
TIMING. PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN TRENDING BACK TO PRIMARILY MVFR
TOWARD 12Z. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD TOTAL AROUND AN INCH OR SO
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
WILL BACK MORE NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY AS SFC REFLECTION REMAINS
WELL SOUTH OF TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 252302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 556 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 252302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 556 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 252302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000 TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 556 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS
THROUGH THE EVENING. AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL
BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A
SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD
ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY MID/LATE MORNING...HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER ON INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPICTED IN THE TAFS NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252239
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
539 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252239
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
539 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 252239
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
539 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252239
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
539 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 536 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO AROUND
10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEWIS
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIND 252034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 252034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 252034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 252034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY...BRINGING LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE AS YET ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. A FRONTAL ZONE IN
COMBINATION WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THOSE SYSTEMS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

GRADUALLY WEAKENING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME MESOSCALE
FORCING IN THE FORM OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS...IT IS UNREMARKABLE AND
WILL ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER
APPARENT ON ILX/ILN MORNING RAOBS. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OUT OF THIS EVENT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO OF CENTRAL INDIANA. MOST ALL GUIDANCE LINES UP
WELL WITH THE FINAL FORECAST...AND SUGGESTS UP TO 1-2 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA...WITH UP TO AN
INCH ALONG A TERRE HAUTE TO INDY AND MUNCIE LINE...AND A HALF INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SLICK SPOTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE EXTENT OF IT.

ON TEMPS...BUMPED UP CONSENSUS MINS AS BETWEEN CLOUD
COVER...INCOMING PRECIP...AND THE FACT THAT MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT BEGIN UNTIL DAYTIME THURSDAY...CONSENSUS MAX
TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A FEW FLURRIES EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS LEAVES TEMPS AS THE
ONLY MAJOR FORECAST VARIABLE.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. MIN TEMPS REQUIRED A BIT MORE MASSAGING AS THEY APPEARED
A BIT WARM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...BUT DID NOT MAKE HUGE
CHANGES AS GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE LAST
COUPLE OF ARCTIC INTRUSIONS. SUBZERO TEMPS WILL BE IN PLAY AGAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

NO CHANGES REQUIRED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...JP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 252011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
311 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FOCUS WILL BE ON WEAKENING SYSTEM APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM WILL
BRING DECENT ACCUMULATIONS TO PARTS OF IOWA AND ILLINOIS BUT LOSE A
LOT OF ITS IMPACT AS IT SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTH AS ENERGY BECOMES
ABSORBED IN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE SE US. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE IN WITH RAPID SATURATION IN THE 4 TO 8Z THURS WINDOW WITH
A LARGE DGZ OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER LIFT REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE THE
DGZ IMPACTING FLAKE SIZE AND TYPE. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF DRY AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN WITH AN INCH OR SO...
LESSER AMOUNTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED TO LIKELY...BLENDING WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES MAINLY LATE EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SREF
PLUMES SUGGESTS 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ISN`T COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE REALM OF CHANCE BUT WITH MAIN WAVE DROPPING SE VS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THINK CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE RIGHT NOW. WILL
DEFER TO EVE SHIFT TO WATCH TRENDS.

AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY...N TO NE FLOW WILL SETUP WITH LK TO 850 MB
DELTA T`S AROUND 20. NAM/GFS TRY TO BRING THE BAND BACK EAST WITH
TIME AFTER 18Z THURS WITH LOCAL WRF POINTING MORE TOWARDS 00Z FRI.
INVERSION HGTS WILL PEAK OUT AROUND 6000 FT BUT NOT UNTIL NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE LONG TERM. HAVE BACKED OFF ON
TIMING OF BAND INTO LAPORTE COUNTY BUT WENT WITH LIKELY POP LAST
HOUR OR 2 TO BLEND WITH MORE FAVORABLE WINDOW IN LONG TERM.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NE WHERE SKIES WILL
TAKE LONGER TO CLOUD OVER AND MID TEENS WEST AND SOUTH. ON THURSDAY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER MUCH OF THE DAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS CONFINED TO
THE TEENS WITH COLDER AIR BEGINNING TO EDGE IN TOWARDS EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET/UNSEASONABLY COLD WX EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE AREA. A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
WITH GRADUAL TEMP MODERATION WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WSW DOWNSTREAM OF A
DIGGING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. LEAD/SHEARED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITHIN
STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WHAT SHOULD AMOUNT TO A
DECENT SURGE OF MOISTURE (3-3.5 G/KG WITHIN A CONTINUES STREAM OF
SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT)...WILL LIKELY ALLOW A WIDESPREAD
AREA OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH FGEN FORCING ENHANCED
LOCALLY LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING AS A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. SOME ACCUMULATION APPEARS
LIKELY (2-4"?)...THOUGH EXPECT MODELS TO TREND A LITTLE DRIER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE SHOULD FORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/PCPN SOUTH
OF THE AREA BY MONDAY SUPPORTING A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE
EJECTS OUT AROUND TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PCPN (ALL PTYPES POSSIBLE FOR THIS EVENT) AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 251916
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
216 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKE PERIOD AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 251916
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
216 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKE PERIOD AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 251916
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
216 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKE PERIOD AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 251916
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
216 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 203 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD.

AFTER A DRY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA GFS AND
ECMWF AGREE THAT A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER CAROLINAS WILL PROVIDE AN
FAVORABLE LOWER LEVEL FLOW TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM ALONG
WITH WARMER AIR. MODELS SUGGEST A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
INDIANA ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE PASSES. ULTIMATELY THIS LOOKS
LIKE A CLASSIC OVERRUNNING SITUATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND GOOD
FORCING. THUS HAVE RAMPED UP POPS TO THE LIKE PERIOD AS THESE
FEATURES PASS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH WARM AIR MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR PRECIP
TO FALL AS RAIN...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD A BELOW FREEZING COLUMN FOR SUNDAY NEAR IND. LOTS
OF TIME AND FURTHER RUNS TO LOOK AT BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES...AND UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECISE POSITION OF THE HIGHLY
IMPACTFUL FREEZING LINE REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME.

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IS EXPECTED TO DEPART AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION. GFS THEN SUGGESTS A DEEPER TROUGH FOR TUESDAY OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE PLAINS
STATES AND OHIO VALLEY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
FAVORABLE WARMER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. WILL
ONCE AGAIN HAVE POPS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE HANDLING OF THIS
SECOND SYSTEM STILL SEEMS A BIT DEPENDENT UPON THE FIRST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIWX 251752
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1252 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING) AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY
REMAINING FLURRIES. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WEAK AND SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO OF PCPN AND A FLUFFY HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RAISED POPS
TO MID CHANCE BUT LIGHT QPF AND DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL BUMP.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ARCTIC
COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOWS DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY IN DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SPLIT FLOW WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS IN OUR REGION AS WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF WINTER WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERACTION AND TIMING
STILL A QUESTION BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND MATCHING SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR
SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIMEFRAME. GFS AS USUAL FASTEST MODEL TO
EJECT STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
OF CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS DEPARTING 1030MB HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
AID IN LOCKING NEAR SURFACE COLD WEDGE INTO PLACE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LOOKS STRONG AND THUS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BEING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL VERY EARLY AND MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. HAVE KEPT PCPN AS SNOW MON NIGHT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW MODEL TRENDS PLAY OUT NEXT FEW DAYS. QUITE
CONFIDENT SOLUTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THEY HAVE ALL WINTER WITH THE
STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251752
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1252 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING) AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY
REMAINING FLURRIES. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WEAK AND SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO OF PCPN AND A FLUFFY HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RAISED POPS
TO MID CHANCE BUT LIGHT QPF AND DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL BUMP.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ARCTIC
COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOWS DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY IN DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SPLIT FLOW WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS IN OUR REGION AS WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF WINTER WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERACTION AND TIMING
STILL A QUESTION BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND MATCHING SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR
SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIMEFRAME. GFS AS USUAL FASTEST MODEL TO
EJECT STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
OF CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS DEPARTING 1030MB HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
AID IN LOCKING NEAR SURFACE COLD WEDGE INTO PLACE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LOOKS STRONG AND THUS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BEING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL VERY EARLY AND MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. HAVE KEPT PCPN AS SNOW MON NIGHT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW MODEL TRENDS PLAY OUT NEXT FEW DAYS. QUITE
CONFIDENT SOLUTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THEY HAVE ALL WINTER WITH THE
STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251752
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1252 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING) AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY
REMAINING FLURRIES. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WEAK AND SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO OF PCPN AND A FLUFFY HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RAISED POPS
TO MID CHANCE BUT LIGHT QPF AND DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL BUMP.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ARCTIC
COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOWS DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY IN DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SPLIT FLOW WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS IN OUR REGION AS WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF WINTER WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERACTION AND TIMING
STILL A QUESTION BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND MATCHING SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR
SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIMEFRAME. GFS AS USUAL FASTEST MODEL TO
EJECT STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
OF CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS DEPARTING 1030MB HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
AID IN LOCKING NEAR SURFACE COLD WEDGE INTO PLACE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LOOKS STRONG AND THUS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BEING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL VERY EARLY AND MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. HAVE KEPT PCPN AS SNOW MON NIGHT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW MODEL TRENDS PLAY OUT NEXT FEW DAYS. QUITE
CONFIDENT SOLUTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THEY HAVE ALL WINTER WITH THE
STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251752
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1252 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING) AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY
REMAINING FLURRIES. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WEAK AND SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO OF PCPN AND A FLUFFY HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RAISED POPS
TO MID CHANCE BUT LIGHT QPF AND DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL BUMP.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ARCTIC
COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOWS DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY IN DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SPLIT FLOW WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS IN OUR REGION AS WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF WINTER WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERACTION AND TIMING
STILL A QUESTION BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND MATCHING SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR
SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIMEFRAME. GFS AS USUAL FASTEST MODEL TO
EJECT STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
OF CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS DEPARTING 1030MB HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
AID IN LOCKING NEAR SURFACE COLD WEDGE INTO PLACE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LOOKS STRONG AND THUS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BEING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL VERY EARLY AND MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. HAVE KEPT PCPN AS SNOW MON NIGHT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW MODEL TRENDS PLAY OUT NEXT FEW DAYS. QUITE
CONFIDENT SOLUTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THEY HAVE ALL WINTER WITH THE
STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FEW CHANGES TO 12Z TAFS WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE
INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT
REQUIRING FUEL ALTERNATE PLANS. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND EXPECTED
SO NO BLSN TO WORRY ABOUT. SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING ON THURSDAY LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY SKIES. SOME OF THE
MODELS HINT AT LOWER IFR CIGS MATERIALIZING AND LINGERING AT KFWA.
HAVE NOT WENT THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH CONCERNS FOR EXACT IMPACTS AS
MAIN SYSTEM WEAKENS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 251658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 251658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1158 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1146 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR THIS OVERNIGHT.

SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEAST. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS FOUND ACROSS SE NEBRASKA...DIVING SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTH AND THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LOWERING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.
 AS BEST FORCING WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT...SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND CIGS WILL BECOME MVFR. TIME HEIGHTS AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A SATURATED COLUMN BY 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TOWARD 18Z AS THE SHORT WAVE AND
FORCING DEPARTS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD ENDING THE SNOW WINDOW BY
MID/LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251419
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
919 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA. THIS IS PROJECTED TO SURGE OVER THE IND TAF IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
HAVE TREND LOWER LEVEL WINDS IN THAT DIRECTION IN A FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING AFTERNOON MID
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN AFTER 01Z.

WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND
THEN NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251419
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
919 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. SATELLITE SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SYSTEM PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA. THIS IS PROJECTED TO SURGE OVER THE IND TAF IN THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
APPROACHES...NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
HAVE TREND LOWER LEVEL WINDS IN THAT DIRECTION IN A FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING AFTERNOON MID
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN AFTER 01Z.

WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND
THEN NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251055
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
555 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING) AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY
REMAINING FLURRIES. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WEAK AND SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO OF PCPN AND A FLUFFY HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RAISED POPS
TO MID CHANCE BUT LIGHT QPF AND DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL BUMP.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ARCTIC
COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOWS DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY IN DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SPLIT FLOW WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS IN OUR REGION AS WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF WINTER WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERACTION AND TIMING
STILL A QUESTION BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND MATCHING SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR
SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIMEFRAME. GFS AS USUAL FASTEST MODEL TO
EJECT STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
OF CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS DEPARTING 1030MB HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
AID IN LOCKING NEAR SURFACE COLD WEDGE INTO PLACE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LOOKS STRONG AND THUS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BEING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL VERY EARLY AND MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. HAVE KEPT PCPN AS SNOW MON NIGHT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW MODEL TRENDS PLAY OUT NEXT FEW DAYS. QUITE
CONFIDENT SOLUTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THEY HAVE ALL WINTER WITH THE
STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES AND MVFR STRATUS AT KSBN WILL DISSIPATE BY
LATER THIS MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT BUT CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO FUEL ALTERNATE CRITERIA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 251040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING AFTERNOON MID
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN AFTER 01Z.

WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND
THEN NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 251040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING AFTERNOON MID
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN AFTER 01Z.

WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND
THEN NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 251040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING AFTERNOON MID
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN AFTER 01Z.

WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND
THEN NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 251040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING AFTERNOON MID
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN AFTER 01Z.

WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND
THEN NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 251040
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 540 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH JUST INCREASING AFTERNOON MID
CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MVFR
CONDITIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD THEN SETTLE IN AFTER 01Z.

WINDS WILL START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND BECOME NORTHEAST AND
THEN NORTH AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIWX 251030
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
530 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING) AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY
REMAINING FLURRIES. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WEAK AND SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO OF PCPN AND A FLUFFY HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RAISED POPS
TO MID CHANCE BUT LIGHT QPF AND DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL BUMP.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ARCTIC
COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOWS DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY IN DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SPLIT FLOW WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS IN OUR REGION AS WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF WINTER WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERACTION AND TIMING
STILL A QUESTION BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND MATCHING SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR
SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIMEFRAME. GFS AS USUAL FASTEST MODEL TO
EJECT STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
OF CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS DEPARTING 1030MB HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
AID IN LOCKING NEAR SURFACE COLD WEDGE INTO PLACE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LOOKS STRONG AND THUS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BEING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL VERY EARLY AND MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. HAVE KEPT PCPN AS SNOW MON NIGHT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW MODEL TRENDS PLAY OUT NEXT FEW DAYS. QUITE
CONFIDENT SOLUTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THEY HAVE ALL WINTER WITH THE
STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN QUICK SHOT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND
MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THOUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY LOOKS TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251030
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
530 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING) AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY
REMAINING FLURRIES. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WEAK AND SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO OF PCPN AND A FLUFFY HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RAISED POPS
TO MID CHANCE BUT LIGHT QPF AND DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL BUMP.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ARCTIC
COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOWS DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY IN DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SPLIT FLOW WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS IN OUR REGION AS WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF WINTER WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERACTION AND TIMING
STILL A QUESTION BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND MATCHING SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR
SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIMEFRAME. GFS AS USUAL FASTEST MODEL TO
EJECT STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
OF CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS DEPARTING 1030MB HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
AID IN LOCKING NEAR SURFACE COLD WEDGE INTO PLACE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LOOKS STRONG AND THUS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BEING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL VERY EARLY AND MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. HAVE KEPT PCPN AS SNOW MON NIGHT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW MODEL TRENDS PLAY OUT NEXT FEW DAYS. QUITE
CONFIDENT SOLUTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THEY HAVE ALL WINTER WITH THE
STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN QUICK SHOT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND
MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THOUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY LOOKS TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251030
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
530 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING) AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY
REMAINING FLURRIES. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WEAK AND SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO OF PCPN AND A FLUFFY HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RAISED POPS
TO MID CHANCE BUT LIGHT QPF AND DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL BUMP.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ARCTIC
COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOWS DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY IN DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SPLIT FLOW WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS IN OUR REGION AS WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF WINTER WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERACTION AND TIMING
STILL A QUESTION BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND MATCHING SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR
SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIMEFRAME. GFS AS USUAL FASTEST MODEL TO
EJECT STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
OF CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS DEPARTING 1030MB HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
AID IN LOCKING NEAR SURFACE COLD WEDGE INTO PLACE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LOOKS STRONG AND THUS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BEING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL VERY EARLY AND MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. HAVE KEPT PCPN AS SNOW MON NIGHT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW MODEL TRENDS PLAY OUT NEXT FEW DAYS. QUITE
CONFIDENT SOLUTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THEY HAVE ALL WINTER WITH THE
STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN QUICK SHOT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND
MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THOUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY LOOKS TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251030
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
530 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB
SOUNDING) AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY
REMAINING FLURRIES. CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED
WITH DAYTIME TEMPS REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER
STRONG PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 529 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

WEAK AND SHEARED SHORT WAVE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH
SAGGING BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO OF PCPN AND A FLUFFY HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION. RAISED POPS
TO MID CHANCE BUT LIGHT QPF AND DRY LOWER LEVELS PRECLUDE
ADDITIONAL BUMP.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER THE AREA THU NIGHT INTO SAT WITH ARCTIC
COLD AIR IN PLACE. LOWS DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO THU NIGHT AND FRI
NIGHT WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY IN DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO...ESPECIALLY EAST WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKEST.

UPPER LOW LOOKS TO DIG INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ALLOW
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL CONUS. SPLIT FLOW WILL
COMPLICATE THINGS IN OUR REGION AS WE HAVE SEEN MOST OF WINTER WITH
A LEAD SHORT WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHILE NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE RACES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERACTION AND TIMING
STILL A QUESTION BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY AND A FEW
INCHES OF ACCUM POSSIBLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY IN
LINE WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND MATCHING SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO POSSIBLE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR
SOMETIME IN THE DAY 6 TO 7 TIMEFRAME. GFS AS USUAL FASTEST MODEL TO
EJECT STRONG SHORT WAVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. ECMWF ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS SLOWER WITH PCPN ARRIVAL TUESDAY.
OF CONCERN WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL BE FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS DEPARTING 1030MB HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AND WILL
AID IN LOCKING NEAR SURFACE COLD WEDGE INTO PLACE. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT LOOKS STRONG AND THUS A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET BEING SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. STILL VERY EARLY AND MANY
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON TIMING...STRENGTH...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES FOR PCPN TYPE. HAVE KEPT PCPN AS SNOW MON NIGHT WITH RAIN
OR SNOW MIX FOR TUESDAY AT THIS TIME. WILL BE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY AND SEE HOW MODEL TRENDS PLAY OUT NEXT FEW DAYS. QUITE
CONFIDENT SOLUTIONS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THEY HAVE ALL WINTER WITH THE
STRONGER SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN QUICK SHOT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND
MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THOUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY LOOKS TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 250906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DECREASED MID DECK COVERAGE PER SATELLITE LOOP...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 250906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DECREASED MID DECK COVERAGE PER SATELLITE LOOP...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 250906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DECREASED MID DECK COVERAGE PER SATELLITE LOOP...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 250906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

ACTIVE AND CHANGING WEATHER ON THE HORIZON AS WE PREPARE TO TAKE
THAT JOURNEY ON THE QUEST FOR SPRING. HOWEVER...WINTER WILL BE
TRYING TO HANG ON WITH A VENGEANCE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED AS
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO PROMOTE ZERO TO BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS START OFF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT QUICKLY
DIVERGE IN TIME...NAMELY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF VARIOUS WAVES
BEING EJECTED EASTWARD IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF
A WEST COAST TROUGH. MODELS DO AGREE THERE PROLONGED RETURN FLOW OFF
THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH...INSTEAD OF
SEEMINGLY ENDLESS TRAIN OF ARCTIC HIGHS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PROLONGED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARMING AND MOISTENING AND AS A RESULT
WET FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TO MID
WEEK.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A BIG HEADACHE BUT SHOULD START AS ALL SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN TREND TOWARDS TRANSITIONING TO AND OR
CHANGING TO FREEZING OR LIQUID PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLIMATOLOGY THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG WITH
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND FREEZING RAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER AND WITH IT BEING THAT
FAR OUT...PREFER TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER BEFORE TRYING TO PINPOINT
OUR DESTINY.

WITH MODEL DIFFERENCES AND NO CLEAR WINNER YET...GENERALLY ACCEPTED
REGIONAL BLEND WHICH WARMS THINGS UP EACH DAY TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 404 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DECREASED MID DECK COVERAGE PER SATELLITE LOOP...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING)
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY REMAINING FLURRIES.
CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER STRONG PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC TEMPERATURES IN
BETWEEN...REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

POTENT BUT SHEARING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE DIVING EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED TREND FOR WARMER MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WEAK FORCING/ASCENT AND INITIAL
DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL YIELD LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER NOTED AN OVERALL
FASTER TREND WITH ONSET OF PRECIP/SHEARING WAVE PASSAGE. SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS AND OVERALL WEAKER ASCENT SHOULD KEEP SNOW LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

YET ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD MODEST LAKE
RESPONSE...HOWEVER BACKGROUND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP
BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER. WITH SFC RIDGE
EXPECTED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A
LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN 12Z
SUPERBLEND.

EJECTION OF SWRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE
SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESED SNOWFALL TRACK AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM VORT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. OWING TO LATEST
TRENDS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT ALL FROZEN PRECIP...SO
REMOVED RAIN MENTION FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN QUICK SHOT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND
MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THOUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY LOOKS TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
CROSSING THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME LIGHT
SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

QUIET WEATHER ANTICIPATED TODAY WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
EXITING COLD FRONT. A FEW POSTFRONTAL LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES IN OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING BUT NO ACCUMULATION/IMPACT
EXPECTED GIVEN VERY STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION (SEE 00Z KGRB SOUNDING)
AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. SURFACE WINDS VEER TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING AND WILL SHUT OFF ANY REMAINING FLURRIES.
CALENDAR DAY HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED WITH DAYTIME TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER STRONG PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL CAA AND INCREASING MIDLEVEL CLOUDS.

NEXT SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT OUR AREA IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WILL SWING THROUGH OUR REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHEAR OUT THIS ALREADY
LACKLUSTER WAVE BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. 285K ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WASHES OUT WEST OF OUR AREA AND THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW IS ABSORBED
BY SOUTHEAST CONUS SYSTEM. JUST SOME WEAK CVA AND ELEVATED
DEFORMATION/FGEN TO SPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER OUR CWA. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ALSO LIMITED GIVEN N/NE FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME DECENT SIZED FLAKES AND HIGHER
SNOW RATIOS BUT BEST OMEGA/SUPERSATURATION WRT ICE IS MAINLY ABOVE
THE DGZ AND WILL INTRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF PLATES AND COLUMNS. DID
RAISE POPS SLIGHTLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 700MB FORCING BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN A HALF INCH. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO HOLD AROUND 10F GIVEN INCREASING CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC TEMPERATURES IN
BETWEEN...REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

POTENT BUT SHEARING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE DIVING EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED TREND FOR WARMER MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WEAK FORCING/ASCENT AND INITIAL
DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL YIELD LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER NOTED AN OVERALL
FASTER TREND WITH ONSET OF PRECIP/SHEARING WAVE PASSAGE. SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS AND OVERALL WEAKER ASCENT SHOULD KEEP SNOW LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

YET ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD MODEST LAKE
RESPONSE...HOWEVER BACKGROUND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP
BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER. WITH SFC RIDGE
EXPECTED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A
LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN 12Z
SUPERBLEND.

EJECTION OF SWRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE
SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESED SNOWFALL TRACK AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM VORT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. OWING TO LATEST
TRENDS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT ALL FROZEN PRECIP...SO
REMOVED RAIN MENTION FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN QUICK SHOT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND
MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THOUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY LOOKS TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250849
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 250849
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 250849
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 250849
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA AND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCES FOR SNOW AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
UPPER WAVES WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE WORK
WEEK AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE DAY WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACTUALLY WARM UNTIL MIDDAY SO
COMBINING THAT WITH THE EXPECTED EARLY SUNSHINE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO AT LEAST WHERE THEY GOT YESTERDAY AND PERHAPS
WARMER IN THE SOUTH. THUS LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE
GUIDANCE NUMBERS

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON SNOW CHANCES EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND GENERALLY USED A CONSENSUS. A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE AREA TONIGHT AND ANOTHER
WAVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER FORCING WITH THE
CLIPPER...WHILE NOT ROBUST...LOOKS SUFFICIENT OVER AT LEAST THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT. ALSO SEEING
SOME STACKING OF LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING IN CROSS SECTION
WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN AND THIS SHOULD SERVE TO BUMP
AMOUNTS UP A BIT FROM WHERE THEY MIGHT BE OTHERWISE. THAT SAID
MODELS DEPICT THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM MONOPOLIZING THE MOISTURE AND
BLOCKING MOST OF IT FROM REACHING HERE. THUS WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING
BUT LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH HAVE STUCK WITH THE HIGH END OF POP
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT WENT WITH LIGHT QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP
TO AN INCH OR SO IN THE NORTHWEST WITH LOWER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

THIS SET OF MODEL RUNS DRAGS OUT THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SO WILL
CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS HEADED TOWARD THE AREA. BY FRIDAY MORNING
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PUT AN END TO ANY SNOW CHANCES.

FOR TEMPERATURES STUCK WITH A MOS/MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD STAY UP IN THE TEENS WITH CLOUDS AND SNOW CHANCES...BUT AFTER
THAT BELOW ZERO LOWS ARE AROUND FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WILL LIKELY STAY STEADY OR FALL
IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 250538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS PERSISTING ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED LOCALLY TO UNDER A MILE
AT TIMES. REPORTS COMING IN OF DRIFTING ON MANY ROADS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AND EVEN FURTHER SOUTH BUT THUS FAR ACTUAL BLOWING
SNOW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WINDS GENERALLY HOLDING UNDER 30
MPH (OCCASIONAL GUST 35 TO 40 MPH BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIG
PROBLEMS). INCREASED POPS FURTHER SOUTH REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH RES MODELS SHOW CURRENT BAND DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND
IMPACTING DOWN TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE US 30 CORRIDOR. WITH
DRIFTING IN MANY AREAS AND POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW OPTED FOR
SIMPLER AREA OF BLOWING SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS
COULD POSE A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DECENT
WARMING OCCURRING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAIN COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS NOW
APPROACHING FREEZING WITH MID TO UPPER 20S MAKING A RUN FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THINK THE WARMEST WILL
REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE
WEST NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE SUN HAS POKED THROUGH.

MAIN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL DROP IN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LITTLE IMPACT BUT ANYONE GETTING UNDER THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SEE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AND POSSIBLE QUITE A BIT LOWER FOR A
PERIOD. HAVE EXPANDED CHC POPS INLAND MORE FOR THE EVENING TO COVER
THE POTENTIAL BUT LIMITED SE EXTENT.

LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE THIS EVENING AS DELTA T`S APPROACH MID TEENS
BUT A LOT OF DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE ENTRAINED. HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT
IN FAR NW BUT STILL HELD WITH CHC FOR NOW...RAPIDLY DECREASING AFTER
9Z. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC TEMPERATURES IN
BETWEEN...REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

POTENT BUT SHEARING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE DIVING EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED TREND FOR WARMER MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WEAK FORCING/ASCENT AND INITIAL
DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL YIELD LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER NOTED AN OVERALL
FASTER TREND WITH ONSET OF PRECIP/SHEARING WAVE PASSAGE. SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS AND OVERALL WEAKER ASCENT SHOULD KEEP SNOW LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

YET ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD MODEST LAKE
RESPONSE...HOWEVER BACKGROUND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP
BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER. WITH SFC RIDGE
EXPECTED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A
LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN 12Z
SUPERBLEND.

EJECTION OF SWRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE
SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESED SNOWFALL TRACK AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM VORT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. OWING TO LATEST
TRENDS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT ALL FROZEN PRECIP...SO
REMOVED RAIN MENTION FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN QUICK SHOT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND
MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THOUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY LOOKS TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
AND COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
INTO 5 TO 10 ABOVE ZERO RANGE WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS PERSISTING ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WHERE VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED LOCALLY TO UNDER A MILE
AT TIMES. REPORTS COMING IN OF DRIFTING ON MANY ROADS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA AND EVEN FURTHER SOUTH BUT THUS FAR ACTUAL BLOWING
SNOW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH WINDS GENERALLY HOLDING UNDER 30
MPH (OCCASIONAL GUST 35 TO 40 MPH BUT NOT LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIG
PROBLEMS). INCREASED POPS FURTHER SOUTH REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AS HIGH RES MODELS SHOW CURRENT BAND DRIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND
IMPACTING DOWN TO AT LEAST PARTS OF THE US 30 CORRIDOR. WITH
DRIFTING IN MANY AREAS AND POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW OPTED FOR
SIMPLER AREA OF BLOWING SNOW FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z. TEMPS
COULD POSE A CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS DECENT
WARMING OCCURRING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AXIS AND MAIN COLD FRONT
DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS NOW
APPROACHING FREEZING WITH MID TO UPPER 20S MAKING A RUN FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THINK THE WARMEST WILL
REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT HAVE NUDGED UP TEMPS A TOUCH IN THE
WEST NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHERE SUN HAS POKED THROUGH.

MAIN ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL DROP IN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING IT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LITTLE IMPACT BUT ANYONE GETTING UNDER THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SEE
VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE AND POSSIBLE QUITE A BIT LOWER FOR A
PERIOD. HAVE EXPANDED CHC POPS INLAND MORE FOR THE EVENING TO COVER
THE POTENTIAL BUT LIMITED SE EXTENT.

LIMITED LAKE RESPONSE THIS EVENING AS DELTA T`S APPROACH MID TEENS
BUT A LOT OF DRY AIR LOOKS TO BE ENTRAINED. HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT
IN FAR NW BUT STILL HELD WITH CHC FOR NOW...RAPIDLY DECREASING AFTER
9Z. DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR WEDS WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALONG WITH ANOTHER BLAST OF ARCTIC TEMPERATURES IN
BETWEEN...REMAINS THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

POTENT BUT SHEARING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BE DIVING EAST
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
CONTINUED TREND FOR WARMER MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/ RAPID
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WEAK FORCING/ASCENT AND INITIAL
DRY LAYER CENTERED AROUND 850MB WILL YIELD LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER NOTED AN OVERALL
FASTER TREND WITH ONSET OF PRECIP/SHEARING WAVE PASSAGE. SUBTLE
HEIGHT FALLS AND OVERALL WEAKER ASCENT SHOULD KEEP SNOW LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY...AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST OUT OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY
LESS THAN AN INCH THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

YET ANOTHER ARCTIC INTRUSION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AS
SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO -20C THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD MODEST LAKE
RESPONSE...HOWEVER BACKGROUND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP
BEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CONTINUED A DOWNWARD TREND IN MIN TEMPS
THURSDAY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER. WITH SFC RIDGE
EXPECTED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS WITH A
LOWERING OF MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT...SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN 12Z
SUPERBLEND.

EJECTION OF SWRN CONUS TROF ENERGY WILL BRING PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE
SOUTHERLY/SUPPRESED SNOWFALL TRACK AS STRONG NORTHERN STREAM VORT
SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. OWING TO LATEST
TRENDS...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT ALL FROZEN PRECIP...SO
REMOVED RAIN MENTION FOR SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSBN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN QUICK SHOT OF BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND
MOISTURE FLUX FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD
SCATTER LOW CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THOUGH AND VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NEXT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AND REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY LOOKS TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF
FORECAST PERIOD...AS A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED SHORTWAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 250433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED 05Z AS
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. BEEN SOME
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT 250500Z. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 250433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED 05Z AS
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. BEEN SOME
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT 250500Z. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED 05Z AS
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. BEEN SOME
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT 250500Z. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED 05Z AS
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. BEEN SOME
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT 250500Z. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1129 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND THE FOR THE MOST PART TODAY. LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

REMOVED ALL MENTION OF EVEN TEMPO GROUPS FOR KIND AND KLAF WITH -SHSN
AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO DRY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW LATER THIS MORNING
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND INCREASE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED 05Z AS
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. BEEN SOME
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT 250500Z. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

0220Z UPDATE...CUT BACK MENTION OF -SHSN TO A VERY BRIEF TEMPO
GROUP FOR LATER TONIGHT (AT LAF AND IND) AND MIGHT BASED ON LATEST
VERY DRY TRENDS ELIMINATE ANY MENTION IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO REMOVED
GUSTS AS THOSE HAVE ABATED. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES/FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT KIND AND ESPECIALLY KLAF WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
BE IMPACTED. EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND
CARRYING JUST A -SHSN WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY TEMPO/D A
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTION FOR THESE TWO SITES FOR A BRIEF COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY
LATE EVENING AND LESSEN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 250311
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 950 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH WED 05Z AS
WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AFTER THAT...CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALLOWING TEMPS TO
DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVENING. BEEN SOME
FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT 250500Z. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

0220Z UPDATE...CUT BACK MENTION OF -SHSN TO A VERY BRIEF TEMPO
GROUP FOR LATER TONIGHT (AT LAF AND IND) AND MIGHT BASED ON LATEST
VERY DRY TRENDS ELIMINATE ANY MENTION IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO REMOVED
GUSTS AS THOSE HAVE ABATED. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES/FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT KIND AND ESPECIALLY KLAF WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
BE IMPACTED. EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND
CARRYING JUST A -SHSN WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY TEMPO/D A
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTION FOR THESE TWO SITES FOR A BRIEF COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY
LATE EVENING AND LESSEN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/TDUD
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
931 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEEN SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT
MUCH ELSE. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT
250500Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

0220Z UPDATE...CUT BACK MENTION OF -SHSN TO A VERY BRIEF TEMPO
GROUP FOR LATER TONIGHT (AT LAF AND IND) AND MIGHT BASED ON LATEST
VERY DRY TRENDS ELIMINATE ANY MENTION IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO REMOVED
GUSTS AS THOSE HAVE ABATED. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES/FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT KIND AND ESPECIALLY KLAF WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
BE IMPACTED. EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND
CARRYING JUST A -SHSN WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY TEMPO/D A
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTION FOR THESE TWO SITES FOR A BRIEF COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY
LATE EVENING AND LESSEN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 250231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
931 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEEN SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT
MUCH ELSE. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT
250500Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

0220Z UPDATE...CUT BACK MENTION OF -SHSN TO A VERY BRIEF TEMPO
GROUP FOR LATER TONIGHT (AT LAF AND IND) AND MIGHT BASED ON LATEST
VERY DRY TRENDS ELIMINATE ANY MENTION IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO REMOVED
GUSTS AS THOSE HAVE ABATED. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES/FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT KIND AND ESPECIALLY KLAF WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
BE IMPACTED. EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND
CARRYING JUST A -SHSN WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY TEMPO/D A
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTION FOR THESE TWO SITES FOR A BRIEF COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY
LATE EVENING AND LESSEN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
931 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEEN SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT
MUCH ELSE. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT
250500Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

0220Z UPDATE...CUT BACK MENTION OF -SHSN TO A VERY BRIEF TEMPO
GROUP FOR LATER TONIGHT (AT LAF AND IND) AND MIGHT BASED ON LATEST
VERY DRY TRENDS ELIMINATE ANY MENTION IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO REMOVED
GUSTS AS THOSE HAVE ABATED. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES/FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT KIND AND ESPECIALLY KLAF WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
BE IMPACTED. EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND
CARRYING JUST A -SHSN WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY TEMPO/D A
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTION FOR THESE TWO SITES FOR A BRIEF COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY
LATE EVENING AND LESSEN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
931 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEEN SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT
MUCH ELSE. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT
250500Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

0220Z UPDATE...CUT BACK MENTION OF -SHSN TO A VERY BRIEF TEMPO
GROUP FOR LATER TONIGHT (AT LAF AND IND) AND MIGHT BASED ON LATEST
VERY DRY TRENDS ELIMINATE ANY MENTION IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO REMOVED
GUSTS AS THOSE HAVE ABATED. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES/FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT KIND AND ESPECIALLY KLAF WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
BE IMPACTED. EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND
CARRYING JUST A -SHSN WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY TEMPO/D A
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTION FOR THESE TWO SITES FOR A BRIEF COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY
LATE EVENING AND LESSEN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
931 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEEN SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT
MUCH ELSE. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT
250500Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

0220Z UPDATE...CUT BACK MENTION OF -SHSN TO A VERY BRIEF TEMPO
GROUP FOR LATER TONIGHT (AT LAF AND IND) AND MIGHT BASED ON LATEST
VERY DRY TRENDS ELIMINATE ANY MENTION IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO REMOVED
GUSTS AS THOSE HAVE ABATED. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES/FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT KIND AND ESPECIALLY KLAF WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
BE IMPACTED. EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND
CARRYING JUST A -SHSN WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY TEMPO/D A
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTION FOR THESE TWO SITES FOR A BRIEF COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY
LATE EVENING AND LESSEN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
931 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A THIRD SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEEN SOME FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT NOT
MUCH ELSE. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES GOING THROUGH ABOUT
250500Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OFF RATHER RAPIDLY DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.

APPEARS THE GFS MOS LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES. WILL NUDGE UP THE GUIDANCE A
BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVES TROUGH IN A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE A NORTHERN
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

MODEL DATA SUGGEST MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE TIED UP WITH THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE LIMITED WITH THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GENERAL ARE A BIT WETTER THAN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...SUGGESTING
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.

WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT APPEARS TO EXIT THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING...HOWEVER ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LINGERING CHANCE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLOWER
SOLUTION.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIODS LOOK TOO COOL.
WILL RAISE THE NUMBERS A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE PERIODS. THE GUIDANCE
LOWS BY THURSDAY NIGHT LOOK OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE ON COMPLEX AND
PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SET TO IMPACT THE OHIO VALLEY AS
A SERIES OF WAVES TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL START DRY AND BITTERLY COLD WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE EAST. ONE MORE SUBZERO NIGHT
CERTAINLY APPEARS PLAUSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH CENTERED
JUST TO OUR EAST. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY
WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT. EXTENDED MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TO A PATTERN SHIFT ALOFT AS UPPER WAVE TRACKING
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U S. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH...QUASI- ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL DOMINATE EAST OF THE ROCKIES...PUMPING IN PROGRESSIVELY
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WHILE DETAILS REMAIN MURKY AT THIS EARLY STAGE...SOME NOTICEABLE
TRENDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS.
BULK OF THE MODELS ARE COLDER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A COUPLE OF REASONS FOR THIS...MORE ENERGY ALOFT IS BEING
HELD BACK IN THE WESTERN TROUGH...LEADING TO A BROAD OVERRUNNING
SETUP AS OPPOSED TO A STRONGER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...PRESENCE OF A SECONDARY AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE POISED TO SINK INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SUPPORT MORE
SUPPRESSION AND CONSEQUENTLY A COLDER SCENARIO. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS MORE SNOW THROUGH MONDAY AND LIMITED ANY MIXING TO
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THE DIFFICULTY THE MODELS HAVE HAD
IN PROPERLY SAMPLING THE SNOWPACK AND ITS IMPACTS ON NEAR SURFACE
TEMPS...MAY SEE FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TOWARDS COLDER BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS IN THE COMING DAYS.

A MORE ROBUST PIECE OF ENERGY EJECTS OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND IS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JETS PHASE. THIS SYSTEM DEPENDING ON
ITS TRACK HAS A MUCH BETTER OPPORTUNITY TO PULL WARMER AIR ALOFT
NORTH INTO THE REGION AND CREATE A SLOPPY WINTRY MIX. INTERESTING
TO NOTE AT THIS PRELIMINARY STAGE THAT MODEL CONSENSUS TAKES THE
WAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CARRY A MIX FOR MOST OF
THE AREA TUESDAY BUT ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE SYSTEM WOULD
INTRODUCE A GREATER THREAT FOR SNOW. STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM
STARTING TO HONE IN ON SPECIFICS WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 921 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

0220Z UPDATE...CUT BACK MENTION OF -SHSN TO A VERY BRIEF TEMPO
GROUP FOR LATER TONIGHT (AT LAF AND IND) AND MIGHT BASED ON LATEST
VERY DRY TRENDS ELIMINATE ANY MENTION IN FUTURE UPDATES. ALSO REMOVED
GUSTS AS THOSE HAVE ABATED. NO OTHER UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP WITH SOME OF THE NORTHERN SITES
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME -SHSN OR FLURRIES...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

NEAR TERM GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES/FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT KIND AND ESPECIALLY KLAF WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE TO
BE IMPACTED. EXPECT SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED AND
CARRYING JUST A -SHSN WITH NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND ONLY TEMPO/D A
MVFR CEILING RESTRICTION FOR THESE TWO SITES FOR A BRIEF COUPLE
HOUR PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO WEST/NORTHWEST BY
LATE EVENING AND LESSEN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE AND
SHIFT TO THE EAST QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER MOVING
INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NW WEDNESDAY
MORNING THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...SMF

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