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000
FXUS63 KIND 161008
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
607 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 607 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TEMPERATURES HAVE STALLED OR SLOWLY RISEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS IN SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...SO IT LOOKS LIKE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE FREEZE WARNING WILL ONLY END UP RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. HOWEVER...THINK IT BEST JUST TO LET THE FREEZE
WARNING PLAY ITSELF OUT WITH IT STILL BEING PRE-DAWN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
INCREASING LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR MORE PER BUFKIT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TO 850 MILLIBARS...AND 850
MILLIBAR FORECASTING CHART FAVORS THE COOLER 00Z NAM AND CONSALL
BLEND AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z GFS.

CONTINUING FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10 AM CONTINUES TO LOOK GREAT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









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000
FXUS63 KIWX 160951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY INTO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 50
DEGREES TODAY...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIR WX AND START OF A MODERATING TREND ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THIS WAA REGIME WILL OCCUR AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH IN FLATTER FLOW TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC SHOULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER TO NEAR 875 MB TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT 50F (STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL
STANDARDS). MORE OPAQUE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIP
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE
IWX CWA TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES WITH EACH. FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE LIMITED INITIALLY WITH WEAK
FORCING SO EXPECTING JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY NEAR THE FRONT AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE CWA. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG FRONT. THIS SUPPORTS MID CHANCE POPS WITH QPF AMOUNTS LOOKING
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

SFC HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO MOVE BACK IN LATER FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS INITIALLY BELOW NORMAL WITH COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
LAKESHORE AT TIMES. TEMPS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST. ECMWF CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM GEM.
925MB TEMPS MIXED SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS THAN MOST CONSENSUS BLENDS
AND CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REALLY DICTATE HOW WARM TEMPS CLIMB SUNDAY AFTN BUT LEANED A BIT
HIGHER THAN ALLBLEND WITH ALL AREAS INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD FLIRT WITH 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED THIS WAVE DOWN A BIT
WITH PCPN CHANCES ON SUNDAY LOOKING SLIM AND CONFINED TO FAR NORTH
AHEAD OF FRONT. HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE AREA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS RANGE WITH MODEL DISPARITY SO LOW POPS
CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DECENT WARMUP
JUST BEYOND DAY 7 FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ORGANIZE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS IN
PLACE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS UNDER SFC RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS (GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS) TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 160827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
INCREASING LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR MORE PER BUFKIT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TO 850 MILLIBARS...AND 850
MILLIBAR FORECASTING CHART FAVORS THE COOLER 00Z NAM AND CONSALL
BLEND AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z GFS.

CONTINUING FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10 AM CONTINUES TO LOOK GREAT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 160749
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY INTO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR 50
DEGREES TODAY...AND NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIR WX AND START OF A MODERATING TREND ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. THIS WAA REGIME WILL OCCUR AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND A POTENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH IN FLATTER FLOW TRANSLATES EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SFC SHOULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SHALLOW
MIXED LAYER TO NEAR 875 MB TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY MAKING A RUN
AT 50F (STILL AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID APRIL
STANDARDS). MORE OPAQUE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIP
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE
IWX CWA TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

FAIRLY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES AND
ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES WITH EACH. FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO OUR AREA. MOISTURE LIMITED INITIALLY WITH WEAK
FORCING SO EXPECTING JUST AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE
DAY NEAR THE FRONT AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE CWA. A SECOND SHORT WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW WITH A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG FRONT. THIS SUPPORTS MID CHANCE POPS WITH QPF AMOUNTS LOOKING
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

SFC HIGH AND SHORT WAVE RIDGING TO MOVE BACK IN LATER FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS INITIALLY BELOW NORMAL WITH COOL
NORTHERLY FLOW AS HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
TRAJECTORIES OFF THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT EVEN COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
LAKESHORE AT TIMES. TEMPS ON SATURDAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH SLIDES
EAST. ECMWF CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN GFS WITH SUPPORT FROM GEM.
925MB TEMPS MIXED SUPPORT WARMER TEMPS THAN MOST CONSENSUS BLENDS
AND CLOSER TO HPC GUIDANCE. AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FOR LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REALLY DICTATE HOW WARM TEMPS CLIMB SUNDAY AFTN BUT LEANED A BIT
HIGHER THAN ALLBLEND WITH ALL AREAS INTO THE 60S SUNDAY. SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD FLIRT WITH 70 WITH LESS CLOUDS AND GOOD MIXING.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE SLOWED THIS WAVE DOWN A BIT
WITH PCPN CHANCES ON SUNDAY LOOKING SLIM AND CONFINED TO FAR NORTH
AHEAD OF FRONT. HAVE TRENDED POPS BACK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS
THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH FRONT IN THE AREA. CONFIDENCE LOW ON TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM AT THIS RANGE WITH MODEL DISPARITY SO LOW POPS
CONTINUE WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER DECENT WARMUP
JUST BEYOND DAY 7 FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
SYSTEM LOOKS TO ORGANIZE IN THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS IN
PLACE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS UNDER SFC RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS (GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS) TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 160716
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO BOUNCE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY
THURSDAY AS WELL. THEN...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE EAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO IOWA AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA.

FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
INCREASING LOW PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS TO 20 MPH OR MORE PER BUFKIT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TO 850 MILLIBARS...AND 850
MILLIBAR FORECASTING CHART FAVORS THE COOLER 00Z NAM AND CONSALL
BLEND AS OPPOSED TO THE 00Z GFS.

CONTINUING FREEZE WARNING THROUGH 10 AM CONTINUES TO LOOK GREAT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE FREEZING MARK WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

TIMING OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS WITH TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD TRENDS ALSO ON THE DOCKET.

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER WAVE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE
INDICATING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THUS KEEP
IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS AN OUTLIER IN
HOLDING BACK THE UPPER SYSTEM A FEW HOURS RESULTING IN QPF HANGING
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE...THE ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PUSH THE BETTER
MOISTURE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PREFER THE QUICKER ECMWF AND
ENSEMBLE BLEND REGARDING QPF PER THE HEMISPHERIC MODEL DISCUSSION.
SO...WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS ALL BUT OUR
EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES...AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL
INDIANA ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM.

WITH ONLY CIRRUS...BUT 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 2 TO 3
DEGREES CELSIUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING PER A MODEL AND MOS BLEND. MEANWHILE...MOS LOOKS A DEGREE
OR TWO TO WARM ON THURSDAY BASED ON 850 MILLIBAR PROGS AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON CU. MOS AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TOO WARM ON FRIDAY
AS WELL WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160600Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 160709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
309 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

0200Z UPDATE...REALLY ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM AND GENERALLY
DID NOT DEPART FROM ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SLIDES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
ON SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING DRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL SINK INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE
FRONT IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST KEEPING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS IT EXITS...USHERING IN HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT WILL WARM SUNDAY TO NORMAL OR JUST ABOVE THEN FOR
THE REST OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160600Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIWX 160450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. NEAR RECORD
AND RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND
POSSIBLY COLDER IN SOME AREAS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH EROSION OF
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WINDS ALSO TO DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES WHICH WILL SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING. FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES LIKELY TO
BE ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE LATE
TONIGHT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FAR
NORTHWEST LATE. EVENING UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO REMOVE LATE
AFTERNOON/SCT FLURRIES MENTION. NO CHANGE MADE TO TEMPS WITH NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD COLD MINS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT...

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...BUT NOT BEFORE A RECORD
BREAKING NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS. FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE GONE...THE GROUND
WILL BE FRESHLY "COOLED" RESULTING IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATER TONIGHT. DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS...ADDING TO THE CONCERNS FOR RAPID COOLING. MET GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY THE COLDEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MANY SPOTS IN THE
LOW 20S WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE AREA DROPPING TO 20 OR LESS. AS A
RESULT...LOWS HAVE BEEN DROPPED SOMEWHAT (FEW DEGREES). ALTHOUGH
NORMALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WE WOULD BE CONSIDERING FREEZE
WARNINGS...THE COLD WINTER AND EARLY SPRING HAS ALLOWED FOR A DELAY
IN THE GROWING SEASON. AS A RESULT...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
HOWEVER...A SPS WAS SENT TO ADDRESS CONCERNS FOR ANNUALS/PERENNIAL
FLOWERS AND PLANTS TONIGHT.

WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND STRENGTHENING MID
APRIL SUN AIDING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDS NIGHT AND THURS AS EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL BUT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. S/SW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR FOR THURS WITH AFTN
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND 60 DEG...NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. CHC FOR PRECIP RETURNS ON FRI AS SYS MOVES FROM NRN PLAINS
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WITH MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF FRONT SO IMAGINE PRECIP WILL BE QUITE
SHOWERY. HAVE KEPT WITH CHC POPS AND QPF AROUND A TENTH. TEMPS WLL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND ARRIVAL OF PRECIP BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
BACK BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. RIDGING THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S BUT EXPECT DECENT AMT OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT WAVE ARRIVES LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...STILL SIGNIFICANT AMT OF DISAGREEMENT
BTWN 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS. UNTIL DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED HAVE KEPT
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORM AND ALLBLEND SLGT/LOW CHC POPS IN THE
SUNDAY/MON TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT MOST OF DAY SUNDAY MAY REMAIN DRY THO
ESP IF GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD WITH DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS IN
PLACE. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS UNDER SFC RIDGE EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AT 10-15 KNOTS (GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KTS) TODAY
IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER MIDWEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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000
FXUS63 KIND 160440
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1240 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

0200Z UPDATE...REALLY ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160600Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1240 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
PERIOD.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN MID TO LATE MORNING...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT
LIKELY FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY 00Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 160221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

0200Z UPDATE...REALLY ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

KIND TAF IS GOOD. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY.

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
VALID TIME LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT LIKELY
FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 160205
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1002 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

0200Z UPDATE...REALLY ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR
MODIFICATIONS TO FORECAST BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY.

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
VALID TIME LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT LIKELY
FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 160012
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
812 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. NEAR RECORD
AND RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT WITH READINGS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND
POSSIBLY COLDER IN SOME AREAS. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH EROSION OF
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WINDS ALSO TO DIMINISH AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES WHICH WILL SET UP IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING. FAR WESTERN GREAT LAKES LIKELY TO
BE ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ZONE LATE
TONIGHT...AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE FAR
NORTHWEST LATE. EVENING UPDATE SENT MAINLY TO REMOVE LATE
AFTERNOON/SCT FLURRIES MENTION. NO CHANGE MADE TO TEMPS WITH NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD COLD MINS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER/MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT...

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...BUT NOT BEFORE A RECORD
BREAKING NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS. FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE GONE...THE GROUND
WILL BE FRESHLY "COOLED" RESULTING IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATER TONIGHT. DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS...ADDING TO THE CONCERNS FOR RAPID COOLING. MET GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY THE COLDEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MANY SPOTS IN THE
LOW 20S WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE AREA DROPPING TO 20 OR LESS. AS A
RESULT...LOWS HAVE BEEN DROPPED SOMEWHAT (FEW DEGREES). ALTHOUGH
NORMALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WE WOULD BE CONSIDERING FREEZE
WARNINGS...THE COLD WINTER AND EARLY SPRING HAS ALLOWED FOR A DELAY
IN THE GROWING SEASON. AS A RESULT...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
HOWEVER...A SPS WAS SENT TO ADDRESS CONCERNS FOR ANNUALS/PERENNIAL
FLOWERS AND PLANTS TONIGHT.

WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND STRENGTHENING MID
APRIL SUN AIDING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDS NIGHT AND THURS AS EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL BUT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. S/SW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR FOR THURS WITH AFTN
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND 60 DEG...NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. CHC FOR PRECIP RETURNS ON FRI AS SYS MOVES FROM NRN PLAINS
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WITH MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF FRONT SO IMAGINE PRECIP WILL BE QUITE
SHOWERY. HAVE KEPT WITH CHC POPS AND QPF AROUND A TENTH. TEMPS WLL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND ARRIVAL OF PRECIP BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
BACK BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. RIDGING THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S BUT EXPECT DECENT AMT OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT WAVE ARRIVES LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...STILL SIGNIFICANT AMT OF DISAGREEMENT
BTWN 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS. UNTIL DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED HAVE KEPT
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORM AND ALLBLEND SLGT/LOW CHC POPS IN THE
SUNDAY/MON TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT MOST OF DAY SUNDAY MAY REMAIN DRY THO
ESP IF GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. CLEAR
SKIES AIDED BY STABLE LAKE SHADOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME SCT MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. DRY LOW LEVELS SHOULD SUPPRESS DIURNAL CU
POTENTIAL FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING...AND THEN LIGHT SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO DEPART TO THE EAST. NEXT UPPER
TROUGH AND SFC REFLECTION TO TAKE SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR STEADY INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED. THE
STRONGER GUSTS IN THIS RANGE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED AT KSBN IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 152231
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 160000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 631 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY.

CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS OF
VALID TIME LEAVING BEHIND SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES ACROSS.

WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY...WITH GUSTS OVER 20KT LIKELY
FROM 14-16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 152035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
435 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 433 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

2030Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

PESKY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
KIND ALL DAY SO FAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING THE THE CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE SEEN A SLOW SHIFT EAST WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH...AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA RIGHT NOW. HAVE HELD
ONTO VCSH AT KIND FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE DONE. VFR CU FIELD
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER FOR DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE COLD POOL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANT S/SE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...SMF/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 151945
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UPPER TROUGH IS CLEARING THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
BUILDING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT UNDER VERY LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEARING SKIES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE A SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. FORTUNATELY...TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO MODERATE BACK TO MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE WINTER THAT REFUSES TO DIE BROUGHT US ONE LAST /HOPEFULLY/
PARTING SHOT TODAY...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...SOME
CONVECTIVE FLURRIES...AND A DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMP AT
INDIANAPOLIS THAT WILL LIKELY BLOW THE OLD RECORD OF 40 DEGREES
OUT OF THE WATER. ALTHOUGH ECHOES STILL REMAIN ON THE RADAR...VERY
LITTLE IF ANY IS MAKING THE GROUND OWING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING
SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AS GUSTS AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH HAVE HELPED TO BRING DOWN DRIER
AIR TO THE SURFACE. WILL KEEP A PRE FIRST PERIOD MENTION OF
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS HOWEVER WITH THESE
ECHOES REMAINING IN THE AREA.

AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP EASILY OVERNIGHT...AND WENT WITH THE COOLER MOS BLEND OVER
OTHER GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS TEMPS DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE WILL
NECESSITATE AT LEAST LOW POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME INSTABILITY IS LOW PER MODEL K
INDEX VALUES...SO WILL ONLY MENTION SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IN PART THANKS TO THE TIME OF
YEAR...AND TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD. PATCHY FROST MAY BE A CONCERN FOR ONE MORE DAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHICH HAVE BEGUN THE GROWING
SEASON...BUT AFTER WHAT LOOKS LIKE A HARD FREEZE TONIGHT THIS MAY
NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH
A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

PESKY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
KIND ALL DAY SO FAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING THE THE CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE SEEN A SLOW SHIFT EAST WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH...AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA RIGHT NOW. HAVE HELD
ONTO VCSH AT KIND FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE DONE. VFR CU FIELD
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER FOR DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE COLD POOL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANT S/SE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 151901
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
301 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NEAR RECORD AND RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH READINGS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND POSSIBLY COLDER IN SOME AREAS.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...RECORD COLD EXPECTED TONIGHT...

QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE PERIOD...BUT NOT BEFORE A RECORD
BREAKING NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS. FLURRIES/LGT SNOW SHOWERS AND CLOUD
COVER WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN AS DIURNAL HEATING ENDS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.
SKIES WILL CLEAR AND ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL BE GONE...THE GROUND
WILL BE FRESHLY "COOLED" RESULTING IN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATER TONIGHT. DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS...ADDING TO THE CONCERNS FOR RAPID COOLING. MET GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY THE COLDEST OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH LOWS IN MANY SPOTS IN THE
LOW 20S WITH FAVORED DRAINAGE AREA DROPPING TO 20 OR LESS. AS A
RESULT...LOWS HAVE BEEN DROPPED SOMEWHAT (FEW DEGREES). ALTHOUGH
NORMALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR WE WOULD BE CONSIDERING FREEZE
WARNINGS...THE COLD WINTER AND EARLY SPRING HAS ALLOWED FOR A DELAY
IN THE GROWING SEASON. AS A RESULT...NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.
HOWEVER...A SPS WAS SENT TO ADDRESS CONCERNS FOR ANNUALS/PERENNIAL
FLOWERS AND PLANTS TONIGHT.

WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS WILL WARM NICELY BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 50S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND STRENGTHENING MID
APRIL SUN AIDING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR WEDS NIGHT AND THURS AS EASTERN CONUS
RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL BUT SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. S/SW WINDS IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR FOR THURS WITH AFTN
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO AROUND 60 DEG...NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. CHC FOR PRECIP RETURNS ON FRI AS SYS MOVES FROM NRN PLAINS
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FORCING IS RATHER WEAK WITH MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF FRONT SO IMAGINE PRECIP WILL BE QUITE
SHOWERY. HAVE KEPT WITH CHC POPS AND QPF AROUND A TENTH. TEMPS WLL
HINGE ON CLOUD COVER AND ARRIVAL OF PRECIP BUT WILL GENERALLY BE
BACK BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S. RIDGING THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND WITH PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 50S BUT EXPECT DECENT AMT OF
SUNSHINE. NEXT WAVE ARRIVES LATER ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS
MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...STILL SIGNIFICANT AMT OF DISAGREEMENT
BTWN 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS. UNTIL DIFFERENCES CAN BE RESOLVED HAVE KEPT
WITH TEMPS NEAR NORM AND ALLBLEND SLGT/LOW CHC POPS IN THE
SUNDAY/MON TIMEFRAME. SUSPECT MOST OF DAY SUNDAY MAY REMAIN DRY THO
ESP IF GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD REMAINING THROUGH
LATER AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED FLURRIES OR VRY LGT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLGT
CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...CEO
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
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000
FXUS63 KIND 151840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF MANY...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A CORRIDOR FROM THE LAF/OKK AREA DOWN TO EAST OF BMG. WILL HAVE TO
ADD POPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEPARTING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE AND WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER
WAVE WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERING VARIANCE
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SO DEVIATED LITTLE
FROM ALLBLEND AND WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING EAST
INTO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY RISING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

PESKY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
KIND ALL DAY SO FAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING THE THE CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE SEEN A SLOW SHIFT EAST WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH...AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA RIGHT NOW. HAVE HELD
ONTO VCSH AT KIND FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE DONE. VFR CU FIELD
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER FOR DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE COLD POOL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANT S/SE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 151745
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. NEAR RECORD AND RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH READINGS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND POSSIBLY COLDER IN SOME AREAS.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DROP INTO THE REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR AIDING IN SCT-NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING WAS EXITING THE REGION. OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING. HOWEVER..WITH HEATING STARTING
UPSTREAM...STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR RAPID CU DEVELOPMENT
WITH THIS EXPANDING SE ACROSS THE LAKE AND INTO THE AREA. SINCE
SNOWSHOWERS WERE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES DESPITE LOW LEVEL
MSTR BEING POOR...CONCERNED THAT AT LEAST FLURRIES MAY STILL
IMPACT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL HEATING SUBSIDES AND
CLOUD COVER DECREASES. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF FLURRIES INTO LATE AFTERNOON.

WINDS HAVE BEGAN TO PICK UP SOMEWHAT AS THE HEATING HAS ALSO
ALLOWED FOR MIXING OF SOME STRONGER WINDS IN LOWER LEVELS. THIS
SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS THE MAIN STORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ALONG AN
ACTIVE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. SNOW TOTALS ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES GENERALLY 1-3"
EXPECTED HERE WITH ROADS MAINLY WET FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXPECTED TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF A
CONSOLIDATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON GIVEN CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE
AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH.
ALSO... NORTHERLY BL WINDS, DELTA T`S IN THE UPPER TEENS, AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS UP INTO THE DGZ HAS ALLOWED A DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING (07Z). THIS FEATURE MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
COUNTIES (PORTER/STARKE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE STRONG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS.

HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF TROUGH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED. A PERIOD OF OPTIMAL
LONGWAVE LOSS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

                                   FWA            SBN
APRIL 15 RECORD COLD HIGH TEMP     37 (1928)      35 (1907)
APRIL 15 FORECAST HIGH TEMP        37             37

APRIL 16 RECORD LOW TEMP           24 (1935)      22 (1935)
APRIL 16 FORECAST LOW TEMP         23             24

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA WED AND
THURS AS EASTERN CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED
NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. CORRESPONDING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXIT IN SIMILAR FASHION WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ROUGHLY 0C BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND 4C BY THURSDAY. MIXING DEPTHS MAY NOT BE QUITE
THAT HIGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S UNDER JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH INCREASED WAA AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL
PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN VORT MAX IS FINALLY DRAWN SOUTH BY APPROACHING
PACIFIC JET STREAK. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AND SYNOPTIC CVA FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK/DISJOINTED ON SEVERAL RECENT
MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE HOLD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY
BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CU FIELD REMAINING THROUGH
LATER AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED FLURRIES OR VRY LGT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT FLGT
CONDITIONS. NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 151712
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF MANY...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A CORRIDOR FROM THE LAF/OKK AREA DOWN TO EAST OF BMG. WILL HAVE TO
ADD POPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN SNOW
SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED.

PESKY AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING PRIMARILY
KIND ALL DAY SO FAR. SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY AND
STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING THE THE CONTINUED SNOW
SHOWERS. HAVE SEEN A SLOW SHIFT EAST WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH...AND UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA RIGHT NOW. HAVE HELD
ONTO VCSH AT KIND FOR A FEW HOURS BUT RECENT RADAR TRENDS WOULD
SUGGEST BULK OF THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ARE DONE. VFR CU FIELD
WILL REMAIN HOWEVER FOR DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON AS REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE COLD POOL. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANT S/SE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER
MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 151423
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1023 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE REGION
LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

GRIDS/ZONES UPDATED TO EXPAND/INCREASE POPS THIS MORNING.

RATHER EXTENSIVE AREA OF SNOWSHOWERS (MOSTLY FLURRIES/VRY LGT
SNOW) ARE BEING REPORTED. RADAR SHOWING SOME DECENT INLAND
PENETRATION IN SOME SPOTS WITH A FEW MORE ROBUST SNOWSHOWERS (25
TO 30 DBZ). BY IN LARGE...THE SNOWSHOWERS WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING AND POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
APPEARING BETWEEN ANY SNOWSHOWERS. A DUSTING TO AT MOST LOCALLY A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. HAVE WENT WITH SCT
SNOWSHOWER MENTION MOST AREAS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE WEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR WORKING
IN...BRINGING A LIKELY DEMISE (OR SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY) TO THE SNOW SHOWERS. ELEVATED SURFACES WILL
REMAIN SLICK IN SPOTS DUE TO MELTING AND RE-FREEZING OF BOTH
RECENT SNOWFALL AND ANY NEW SNOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR IMPROVING
ROAD CONDITIONS.

NO OTHER SIG CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS THE MAIN STORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ALONG AN
ACTIVE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. SNOW TOTALS ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES GENERALLY 1-3"
EXPECTED HERE WITH ROADS MAINLY WET FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXPECTED TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF A
CONSOLIDATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON GIVEN CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE
AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH.
ALSO... NORTHERLY BL WINDS, DELTA T`S IN THE UPPER TEENS, AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS UP INTO THE DGZ HAS ALLOWED A DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING (07Z). THIS FEATURE MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
COUNTIES (PORTER/STARKE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE STRONG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS.

HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF TROUGH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED. A PERIOD OF OPTIMAL
LONGWAVE LOSS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

                                   FWA            SBN
APRIL 15 RECORD COLD HIGH TEMP     37 (1928)      35 (1907)
APRIL 15 FORECAST HIGH TEMP        37             37

APRIL 16 RECORD LOW TEMP           24 (1935)      22 (1935)
APRIL 16 FORECAST LOW TEMP         23             24

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA WED AND
THURS AS EASTERN CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED
NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. CORRESPONDING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXIT IN SIMILAR FASHION WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ROUGHLY 0C BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND 4C BY THURSDAY. MIXING DEPTHS MAY NOT BE QUITE
THAT HIGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S UNDER JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH INCREASED WAA AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL
PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN VORT MAX IS FINALLY DRAWN SOUTH BY APPROACHING
PACIFIC JET STREAK. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AND SYNOPTIC CVA FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK/DISJOINTED ON SEVERAL RECENT
MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE HOLD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY
BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND MAINLY THIS MORNING AT SBN. DRY OTHERWISE
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KTS (GUSTS NEAR 20KT) BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. HIGH END MVFR-LOW VFR STRATO
CU DECK WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCATTERING VFR CU DECK BY LATE MORNING-
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 151418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF MANY...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A CORRIDOR FROM THE LAF/OKK AREA DOWN TO EAST OF BMG. WILL HAVE TO
ADD POPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BROKEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND CONTINUES TO PERIODICALLY IMPACT KIND.
HOWEVER...BAND AXIS SHIFTING EAST IN RESPONSE TO A BACKING OF THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW. KLAF NOW APPEARS TO BE DONE...AND THE SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF KIND AS WELL BETWEEN 15-16Z. TWEAKED CEILINGS
AND WINDS.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT KIND AND KLAF FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN ADDITION TO THE
MVFR CEILINGS EVERYWHERE BUT KHUF. BY MID MORNING SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BUT THEN WILL SEE VFR CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH CU
FILLING BACK IN. WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AND BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 151359
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 959 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF MANY...LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT
A CORRIDOR FROM THE LAF/OKK AREA DOWN TO EAST OF BMG. WILL HAVE TO
ADD POPS THROUGH THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE DAY WITH SCATTERED
WORDING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT KIND AND KLAF FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN ADDITION TO THE
MVFR CEILINGS EVERYWHERE BUT KHUF. BY MID MORNING SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BUT THEN WILL SEE VFR CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH CU
FILLING BACK IN. WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AND BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH/NIELD
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 151104
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
704 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 151200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND COULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT KIND AND KLAF FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES IN ADDITION TO THE
MVFR CEILINGS EVERYWHERE BUT KHUF. BY MID MORNING SHOULD SEE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BUT THEN WILL SEE VFR CEILINGS DEVELOP WITH CU
FILLING BACK IN. WINDS COULD GUST TO AROUND 18KTS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT AND BECOME
FAIRLY LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 151008
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 608 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

HAD TO ADD A COUPLE OF HOURS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES REGARDING
THE BAND THAT HAS SET UP ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM AROUND DELPHI TO
INDIANAPOLIS. EXPECT THE BAND TO DIMINISH AROUND 12Z OR SHORTLY
AFTER AS UPPER SUSIDENCE WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS A BIT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RADAR AND OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING KLAF AND
KBMG AND MOVING INTO KIND. ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR KIND THRU 10Z FOR
MVFR VISBYS WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE UPDATE. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SHOULD SEE CEILINGS SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 015 FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT FOR A
TIME AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY UNDER THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH.

SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-18 KTS FROM 320-350 DEGREES EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIWX 150951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TODAY. WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS THE MAIN STORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ALONG AN
ACTIVE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. SNOW TOTALS ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES GENERALLY 1-3"
EXPECTED HERE WITH ROADS MAINLY WET FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXPECTED TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF A
CONSOLIDATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON GIVEN CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE
AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH.
ALSO... NORTHERLY BL WINDS, DELTA T`S IN THE UPPER TEENS, AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS UP INTO THE DGZ HAS ALLOWED A DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING (07Z). THIS FEATURE MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
COUNTIES (PORTER/STARKE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE STRONG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS.

HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF TROUGH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED. A PERIOD OF OPTIMAL
LONGWAVE LOSS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

                                   FWA            SBN
APRIL 15 RECORD COLD HIGH TEMP     37 (1928)      35 (1907)
APRIL 15 FORECAST HIGH TEMP        37             37

APRIL 16 RECORD LOW TEMP           24 (1935)      22 (1935)
APRIL 16 FORECAST LOW TEMP         23             24

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA WED AND
THURS AS EASTERN CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED
NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. CORRESPONDING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXIT IN SIMILAR FASHION WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ROUGHLY 0C BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND 4C BY THURSDAY. MIXING DEPTHS MAY NOT BE QUITE
THAT HIGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S UNDER JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH INCREASED WAA AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL
PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN VORT MAX IS FINALLY DRAWN SOUTH BY APPROACHING
PACIFIC JET STREAK. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AND SYNOPTIC CVA FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK/DISJOINTED ON SEVERAL RECENT
MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE HOLD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY
BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND MAINLY THIS MORNING AT SBN. DRY OTHERWISE
WITH NW WINDS 10-15 KTS (GUSTS NEAR 20KT) BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. HIGH END MVFR-LOW VFR STRATO
CU DECK WILL GIVE WAY TO A SCATTERING VFR CU DECK BY LATE MORNING-
AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EVENTUALLY SUPPORTING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE AFTERNOON-TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 150835
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
435 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RADAR AND OBS SHOW A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IMPACTING KLAF AND
KBMG AND MOVING INTO KIND. ADDED TEMPO GROUP FOR KIND THRU 10Z FOR
MVFR VISBYS WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH THE UPDATE. NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SHOULD SEE CEILINGS SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 015 FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT FOR A
TIME AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY UNDER THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH.

SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-18 KTS FROM 320-350 DEGREES EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 150756 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TODAY. WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS THE MAIN STORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ALONG AN
ACTIVE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. SNOW TOTALS ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES GENERALLY 1-3"
EXPECTED HERE WITH ROADS MAINLY WET FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXPECTED TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF A
CONSOLIDATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON GIVEN CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE
AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH.
ALSO... NORTHERLY BL WINDS, DELTA T`S IN THE UPPER TEENS, AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS UP INTO THE DGZ HAS ALLOWED A DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING (07Z). THIS FEATURE MAY CLIP OUR FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA
COUNTIES (PORTER/STARKE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE STRONG DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS.

HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF TROUGH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED. A PERIOD OF OPTIMAL
LONGWAVE LOSS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

                                   FWA            SBN
APRIL 15 RECORD COLD HIGH TEMP     37 (1928)      35 (1907)
APRIL 15 FORECAST HIGH TEMP        37             37

APRIL 16 RECORD LOW TEMP           24 (1935)      22 (1935)
APRIL 16 FORECAST LOW TEMP         23             24

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA WED AND
THURS AS EASTERN CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED
NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. CORRESPONDING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXIT IN SIMILAR FASHION WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ROUGHLY 0C BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND 4C BY THURSDAY. MIXING DEPTHS MAY NOT BE QUITE
THAT HIGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S UNDER JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH INCREASED WAA AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL
PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN VORT MAX IS FINALLY DRAWN SOUTH BY APPROACHING
PACIFIC JET STREAK. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AND SYNOPTIC CVA FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK/DISJOINTED ON SEVERAL RECENT
MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE HOLD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY
BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF SBN...AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF FWA BY 07-08Z.
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS MUCH DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS (GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS) WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 150754
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROMOTE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW FLURRIES TODAY. WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION LATER FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

NEAR RECORD COLD TEMPS THE MAIN STORY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW ALONG AN
ACTIVE MID LEVEL FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR NORTHWEST OHIO COUNTIES BY
DAYBREAK. SNOW TOTALS ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES GENERALLY 1-3"
EXPECTED HERE WITH ROADS MAINLY WET FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING EXPECTED TODAY WITH PASSAGE OF A
CONSOLIDATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLURRIES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON GIVEN CYCLONIC NW FLOW OFF THE LAKE
AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THERMAL TROUGH.
ALSO... NORTHERLY BL WINDS, DELTA T`S IN THE UPPER TEENS, AND
EQUILIBRIUM HEIGHTS UP INTO THE DGZ HAS ALLOWED A DECENT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BAND TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF
THIS WRITING (07Z). THIS FEATURE MAY CLIP OUR FAR FAR NORTHWEST
INDIANA COUNTIES (PORTER/STARKE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BEFORE STRONG
DRYING/SUBSIDENCE OVERWHELMS.

HEIGHT RISES IN WAKE OF TROUGH WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED. A PERIOD OF OPTIMAL
LONGWAVE LOSS WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

                                   FWA            SBN
APRIL 15 RECORD COLD HIGH TEMP     37 (1928)      35 (1907)
APRIL 15 FORECAST HIGH TEMP        37             37

APRIL 16 RECORD LOW TEMP           24 (1935)      22 (1935)
APRIL 16 FORECAST LOW TEMP         23             24

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA WED AND
THURS AS EASTERN CONUS REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STOUT MIDLEVEL
RIDGING AND MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES IS TEMPORARILY SHUNTED
NORTHWARD. LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER AND
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT TROUGH. CORRESPONDING THERMAL TROUGH WILL
EXIT IN SIMILAR FASHION WITH 850MB TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ROUGHLY 0C BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND 4C BY THURSDAY. MIXING DEPTHS MAY NOT BE QUITE
THAT HIGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S UNDER JUST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH INCREASED WAA AND SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL
PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPS TO AROUND 60F. NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVES
ON FRIDAY AS CANADIAN VORT MAX IS FINALLY DRAWN SOUTH BY APPROACHING
PACIFIC JET STREAK. MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE
AND SYNOPTIC CVA FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK/DISJOINTED ON SEVERAL RECENT
MODEL RUNS. WILL THEREFORE HOLD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY
BRING DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT
TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVE SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF ON PATTERN EVOLUTION FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WILL STICK WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF SBN...AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF FWA BY 07-08Z.
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS MUCH DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS (GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS) WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 150733
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
333 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

DRY AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY
AND TONIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK
TO NORMAL IN THE 60S BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. FINALLY...MORE SHOWER CHANCES WILL
RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RELATED TO
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE MAIN ISSUES WITH THE NEAR TERM CENTER AROUND FREEZING
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
6 AM TO 10 AM ACROSS MANY OF OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY BEGUN. TIMING
OF PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS ALONG WITH RESULTANT
TEMPERATURES. RAPID REFRESH REFLECTIVITY PROGS ALONG WITH RADAR
TRENDS SUGGEST ALL THE SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR
TO 12Z TODAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BROAD PLAINS COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PRIOR TO THAT...SHARP SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. THE RESULT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH WILL ONLY BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT BUFKIT SUGGESTS COULD GUST TO 25 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY.

LOW LEVEL RH PROGS SUGGEST CLEARING LINE ACROSS ILLINOIS WILL SPREAD
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SOME LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND 850 MILLIBARS AND STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN CU FILLING BACK IN FOR A TIME
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES. WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES FROM MINUS 7 DEGREES SOUTHWEST TO MINUS 10 DEGREES
NORTHEAST...SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD
COVER...WILL UNDERCUT 00Z MOS A FEW DEGREES AND CLOSER TO CONSALL
BLEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO MID 40S
SOUTHWEST.

FREEZE WARNING CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD THROUGH 10 AM SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...HOWEVER WILL ALSO NEED TO EXTEND THE WARNING ACROSS
KNOX...DAVIESS AND MARTIN THE WAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHTED BY A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TONIGHT WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS TO THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EXTENDED WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF OUT
WESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

MODEL TIME SECTIONS AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE SUGGESTS CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW FREEZING WITH A HARD FREEZE
LOOKING LIKELY. THUS...WILL UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...THAT AS MENTIONED EARLIER ARE
NOW IN THE GROWING SEASON.

WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED IN FAST SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AND WARM ADVECTION FROM BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 1 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS MIXED DOWN UNDER WOULD SUGGEST.

LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY...CONTINUING SOUTHERLY WINDS
AHEAD OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S PER 00Z MOS AND
MODEL BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ZONES. EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME.

SHOULD SEE CEILINGS SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 015 FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT FOR A
TIME AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY UNDER THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH.

SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-18 KTS FROM 320-350 DEGREES EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KOCH
NEAR TERM...KOCH
SHORT TERM...KOCH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 150720
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER TROUGH BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET...BUT WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE OR NOT IS MUCH
SHAKIER. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FACTORS POINT TOWARD
PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS SOME GOOD PRECIP RATES...OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AND EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS POINT TOWARD SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WARM
GROUND AND PAVEMENT WILL WORK HARD AGAINST ANY ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING.

SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS ADEQUATE IF NOT SPECTACULAR...BUT VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS /RAIN OR SNOW/ SHOULD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REDEVELOP. BRIEF
HIGH PRECIP RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY WAY TO OVERCOME
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...WHICH UNDER PAVEMENT ARE RANGING FROM
55 TO 75 ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS...AND LATEST HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL BEGINNING TO HINT THAT MAJORITY OF SNOW COULD
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WITH LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE HERE.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO ARGUES AGAINST ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY THREE DATES
FROM THIS POINT OR LATER OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 30-40
YEARS.

IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS AT
MOST...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A STRETCH WITH MELTING OCCURRING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE/ENHANCED PRECIP RATES MAY MAKE FOR SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SNOW SIDE NW
INITIALLY...WITH TRANSITION IN THE IND METRO AROUND 03-04Z AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST MORE LIKE 04-06Z. ANYTHING FALLING AFTER 06Z
LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS TRACKED WELL WITH WETBULB TEMPS AND WERE USED
WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE BEING ONE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN ACCORDING TO OFFICE COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL AND STATE
AGRICULTURAL OFFICIALS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE 20S
ACROSS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. DO NOT
WANT TO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING QUITE YET TO AVOID MUDDYING THE
WATERS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
MINOR THEY MAY BE. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE
LIKELY UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL START VERY COLD...NEAR
RECORD LOW MAX NUMBERS TUESDAY...BUT WARM STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD THANKS
TO THE TIME OF YEAR. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS
WELL WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER BRINGING RAIN CHANCES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. NO INSTABILITY AVAILABLE SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. SATURDAY UPPER RIDGING WILL BE OVERHEAD
KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON
THERE IS A DECENT BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND
THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER WAVE. GENERALLY
ACCEPTED ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR COLLABORATION.
THIS PRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER THIS SET OF RUNS WITH HIGHS STILL
RUNNING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ZONES. EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME.

SHOULD SEE CEILINGS SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 015 FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT FOR A
TIME AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY UNDER THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH.

SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-18 KTS FROM 320-350 DEGREES EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ON TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR INZ060-061-
067>072.

FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 150446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1245 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER TROUGH BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET...BUT WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE OR NOT IS MUCH
SHAKIER. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FACTORS POINT TOWARD
PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS SOME GOOD PRECIP RATES...OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AND EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS POINT TOWARD SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WARM
GROUND AND PAVEMENT WILL WORK HARD AGAINST ANY ACCUMULATION
OCCURRING.

SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS ADEQUATE IF NOT SPECTACULAR...BUT VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS /RAIN OR SNOW/ SHOULD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REDEVELOP. BRIEF
HIGH PRECIP RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY WAY TO OVERCOME
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...WHICH UNDER PAVEMENT ARE RANGING FROM
55 TO 75 ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS...AND LATEST HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL BEGINNING TO HINT THAT MAJORITY OF SNOW COULD
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WITH LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE HERE.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO ARGUES AGAINST ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY THREE DATES
FROM THIS POINT OR LATER OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 30-40
YEARS.

IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS AT
MOST...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A STRETCH WITH MELTING OCCURRING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE/ENHANCED PRECIP RATES MAY MAKE FOR SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SNOW SIDE NW
INITIALLY...WITH TRANSITION IN THE IND METRO AROUND 03-04Z AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST MORE LIKE 04-06Z. ANYTHING FALLING AFTER 06Z
LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS TRACKED WELL WITH WETBULB TEMPS AND WERE USED
WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT ISSUE BEING ONE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN ACCORDING TO OFFICE COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL AND STATE
AGRICULTURAL OFFICIALS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE 20S
ACROSS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. DO NOT
WANT TO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING QUITE YET TO AVOID MUDDYING THE
WATERS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
MINOR THEY MAY BE. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE
LIKELY UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL START VERY COLD...NEAR
RECORD LOW MAX NUMBERS TUESDAY...BUT WARM STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD THANKS
TO THE TIME OF YEAR. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS
WELL WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS A WAVE ALOFT PIVOTS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POORLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
REVERTING TO DRY WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR MID APRIL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINTS CONTINUE OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP BEYOND THE 7 DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U S EXPANDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
ZONES. EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY ISSUANCE TIME.

SHOULD SEE CEILINGS SETTLE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AROUND 015 FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OUT FOR A
TIME AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CEILINGS AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY TUESDAY UNDER THE 850MB THERMAL TROUGH.

SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-18 KTS FROM 320-350 DEGREES EXPECTED AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
INZ060-061-067>072.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR INZ060-061-
070>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 150444
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1244 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 69.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF FORCING NOTED THIS EVENING. THE FIRST BEING
A HIGHLY ELEVATED AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS...BASED CLOSED TO 600 HPA
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NOW APPROACHING NORTHWEST INDIANA.
UPPER VORTICITY MAX WITH ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NWRN ILLINOIS IS HIGHLY SHEARED IN NATURE AND SHOULD TEND TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. NAM 600
HPA F-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS DO SUGGEST AXIS OF STRONGEST FGEN
FORCING GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN MICHIGAN SO SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW ORGANIZED
THIS BANDING WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST.

A SECOND VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
ALREADY ACTIVATED AREA OF RAIN ALONG STRONG MID LEVEL FRONT...AND
THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE
INITIALLY GIVEN SFC WET BULBS JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND POTENTIAL
MAINTENANCE OF VERY WEAK ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAT COULD INTRODUCE
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE BEST CO-
LOCATION OF 700-600 HPA FGEN FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXIST. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FRONT/FGEN...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY MESOSCALE BANDING ISSUES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

WILL LIKELY BE SENDING ANOTHER EVENING UPDATE IN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO FURTHER INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPPER LEVEL FGEN FORCING...AND TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACCUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UNSEASONABLE COLD HAS REPLACED YDAS UNSEASONABLE WARMTH W/24HR
CHGS IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES COLDER. ONLY THING KEEPING RECORD
MINS IN CHECK ARE CONTD EXTENSIVE LOW CLD CVR WITHIN MOIST
CYCLONIC FLW AND SUSTAINED SFC GRADIENT. TUE NIGHT IS ANOTHER
STORY HWVR.

LTL OF NOTE NR TERM OTHER THAN DEEPENING OF CAA WEDGE WHICH DOES NOT
HIT EQUILIBRIUM UNTIL MID MORNING TOMORROW. DRYSLOT WRAPPING NEWD
UNDERNEATH EJECTING LEAD SW OVR SRN ONTARIO HAD CUTOFF EARLIER SHRA
ACTIVITY HWVR STILL MOIST ENOUGH INVOF OF 850MB FNT TO FOSTER SOME
PATCHY DZ WHICH WILL CONT TO MIGRATE EWD THIS AFTN.

SHRT TERM DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO IF ANYTHING W/SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW
WHICH DRIVES EWD OVERNIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE SIMILAR IN SCOPE
ALOFT W/PRIOR GUIDANCE YET CERTAINLY DRIER WEST AND CENTRAL THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OFFER NO PANACEA EITHER
W/GENERALLY FRACTURED/THIN BAND OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FM ERN IA SWWD INTO SE KS. HWVR AREA OF ELEVATED CONVN BREAKING OUT
ACRS SWRN AR SOMETHING SVRL HIGHRES SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON AND
SUGGEST GENERAL NEWD CONSOLIDATION/EXPANSION THIS EVENING INTO ERN
ZONES. CONSENSUS QPF AXIS ALG/E OF A PORTLAND...DEFIANCE...WAUSEON
LINE SUGGEST SOME IMPACT PROBABLE LT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HWVR SFC TEMP AND UPSTREAM PCPN SHIELD UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE MAKING
ANY WWA HIGHLITE DECISIONS AT THIS POINT AND WILL DEFER TO EVENING
SHIFT TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS UPSTREAM.

OTRWS DEEP LYRD SUBSIDENT DRYING FOLLOWS ON TUES W/SKIES CLRG. HWVR
ANOMALOUSLY COLD LL THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS THROUGH AFTN BFR BREAKING
DOWN AND EVEN W/INSOLATION SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NEAR RECORD/RECORD COLD NIGHT IN STORE TO START THE PERIOD AS LAST
OF THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BEFORE SENDING LOWS
INTO THE LOWER 20S OR POSSIBLY A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS. WHILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FROST/FREEZE THIS FAR NORTH ISN`T NORMALLY AN
ISSUE...SOME BUDDING OF FRUIT BEARING TREES MAY BE UNDERWAY. WITH
LOWS THIS COLD...SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS. SOMETHING TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HGTS WILL HELP STEER THIS FEATURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
THAT WILL STALL OUT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW
STATES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT WITH SFC REFLECTION TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS KANSAS AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY. WHILE NO MASSIVE WARM UPS ARE IN STORE AT THIS POINT...850
MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO +2 TO +4 MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. IN
TERMS OF POPS...HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT FOR FRI/FRI NGT BUT HOLDING
SHY OF LIKELY AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST.

RECORD LOWS...
       16TH
SBN    22 (1935)
FWA    24 (1935)

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FRONT AND SHORTWAVE HAS
SHIFTED EAST OF SBN...AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST OF FWA BY 07-08Z.
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS MUCH DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS (GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS) WILL PERSIST TODAY AND THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 150225
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER TROUGH BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET...BUT WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE OR NOT IS MUCH
SHAKIER. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FACTORS POINT TOWARD
PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS SOME GOOD PRECIP RATES...OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AND EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS POINT TOWARD SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WARM
GROUND AND PAVEMENT WILL WORK HARD AGAINST ANY ACCUMULATION OCCURRING.

SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS ADEQUATE IF NOT SPECTACULAR...BUT VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS /RAIN OR SNOW/ SHOULD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REDEVELOP. BRIEF
HIGH PRECIP RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY WAY TO OVERCOME
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...WHICH UNDER PAVEMENT ARE RANGING FROM
55 TO 75 ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS...AND LATEST HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL BEGINNING TO HINT THAT MAJORITY OF SNOW COULD
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WITH LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE HERE.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO ARGUES AGAINST ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY THREE DATES
FROM THIS POINT OR LATER OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 30-40
YEARS.

IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS AT
MOST...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A STRETCH WITH MELTING OCCURRING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE/ENHANCED PRECIP RATES MAY MAKE FOR SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SNOW SIDE NW
INITIALLY...WITH TRANSITION IN THE IND METRO AROUND 03-04Z AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST MORE LIKE 04-06Z. ANYTHING FALLING AFTER 06Z
LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS TRACKED WELL WITH WETBULB TEMPS AND WERE USED
WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY
SIGNFICANT ISSUE BEING ONE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN ACCORDING TO OFFICE COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL AND STATE
AGRICULTURAL OFFICIALS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE 20S
ACROSS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. DO NOT
WANT TO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING QUITE YET TO AVOID MUDDYING THE
WATERS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
MINOR THEY MAY BE. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE
LIKELY UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL START VERY COLD...NEAR
RECORD LOW MAX NUMBERS TUESDAY...BUT WARM STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD THANKS
TO THE TIME OF YEAR. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS
WELL WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS A WAVE ALOFT PIVOTS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POORLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
REVERTING TO DRY WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR MID APRIL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINTS CONTINUE OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP BEYOND THE 7 DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U S EXPANDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

LOCAL SURFACE REPORTS INDICATES THAT SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MIX IN
WITH THE RAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AREAS. MIXED
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF KIND FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

SHORT TERM MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIFT/MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 150700Z. APPEARS THE BEST LIFT/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES...KIND/KBMG. BEEN SOME OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE RAIN AREA MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING...SO AN EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKE IN THE KIND/KBMG VICINITY IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

COLDER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE A PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING WHERE THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY AFTER
150100Z.

LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AROUND
150700Z...SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY THAT TIME. APPEARS
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
PRECIPITATION AREA THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS SETTLING AROUND 015
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

FINALLY...SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS FROM 320-350 DEGREES
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIWX 150205 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
820 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 69.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF FORCING NOTED THIS EVENING. THE FIRST BEING
A HIGHLY ELEVATED AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS...BASED CLOSED TO 600 HPA
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NOW APPROACHING NORTHWEST INDIANA.
UPPER VORTICITY MAX WITH ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NWRN ILLINOIS IS HIGHLY SHEARED IN NATURE AND SHOULD TEND TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. NAM 600
HPA F-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS DO SUGGEST AXIS OF STRONGEST FGEN
FORCING GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN MICHIGAN SO SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW ORGANIZED
THIS BANDING WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA. STILL
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHWEST.

A SECOND VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
ALREADY ACTIVATED AREA OF RAIN ALONG STRONG MID LEVEL FRONT...AND
THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE
INITIALLY GIVEN SFC WET BULBS JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND POTENTIAL
MAINTENANCE OF VERY WEAK ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAT COULD INTRODUCE
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE BEST CO-
LOCATION OF 700-600 HPA FGEN FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXIST. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FRONT/FGEN...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY MESOSCALE BANDING ISSUES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

WILL LIKELY BE SENDING ANOTHER EVENING UPDATE IN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO FURTHER INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPPER LEVEL FGEN FORCING...AND TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACCUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UNSEASONABLE COLD HAS REPLACED YDAS UNSEASONABLE WARMTH W/24HR
CHGS IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES COLDER. ONLY THING KEEPING RECORD
MINS IN CHECK ARE CONTD EXTENSIVE LOW CLD CVR WITHIN MOIST
CYCLONIC FLW AND SUSTAINED SFC GRADIENT. TUE NIGHT IS ANOTHER
STORY HWVR.

LTL OF NOTE NR TERM OTHER THAN DEEPENING OF CAA WEDGE WHICH DOES NOT
HIT EQUILIBRIUM UNTIL MID MORNING TOMORROW. DRYSLOT WRAPPING NEWD
UNDERNEATH EJECTING LEAD SW OVR SRN ONTARIO HAD CUTOFF EARLIER SHRA
ACTIVITY HWVR STILL MOIST ENOUGH INVOF OF 850MB FNT TO FOSTER SOME
PATCHY DZ WHICH WILL CONT TO MIGRATE EWD THIS AFTN.

SHRT TERM DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO IF ANYTHING W/SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW
WHICH DRIVES EWD OVERNIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE SIMILAR IN SCOPE
ALOFT W/PRIOR GUIDANCE YET CERTAINLY DRIER WEST AND CENTRAL THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OFFER NO PANACEA EITHER
W/GENERALLY FRACTURED/THIN BAND OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FM ERN IA SWWD INTO SE KS. HWVR AREA OF ELEVATED CONVN BREAKING OUT
ACRS SWRN AR SOMETHING SVRL HIGHRES SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON AND
SUGGEST GENERAL NEWD CONSOLIDATION/EXPANSION THIS EVENING INTO ERN
ZONES. CONSENSUS QPF AXIS ALG/E OF A PORTLAND...DEFIANCE...WAUSEON
LINE SUGGEST SOME IMPACT PROBABLE LT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HWVR SFC TEMP AND UPSTREAM PCPN SHIELD UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE MAKING
ANY WWA HIGHLITE DECISIONS AT THIS POINT AND WILL DEFER TO EVENING
SHIFT TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS UPSTREAM.

OTRWS DEEP LYRD SUBSIDENT DRYING FOLLOWS ON TUES W/SKIES CLRG. HWVR
ANOMALOUSLY COLD LL THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS THROUGH AFTN BFR BREAKING
DOWN AND EVEN W/INSOLATION SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NEAR RECORD/RECORD COLD NIGHT IN STORE TO START THE PERIOD AS LAST
OF THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BEFORE SENDING LOWS
INTO THE LOWER 20S OR POSSIBLY A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS. WHILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FROST/FREEZE THIS FAR NORTH ISN`T NORMALLY AN
ISSUE...SOME BUDDING OF FRUIT BEARING TREES MAY BE UNDERWAY. WITH
LOWS THIS COLD...SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS. SOMETHING TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HGTS WILL HELP STEER THIS FEATURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
THAT WILL STALL OUT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW
STATES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT WITH SFC REFLECTION TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS KANSAS AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY. WHILE NO MASSIVE WARM UPS ARE IN STORE AT THIS POINT...850
MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO +2 TO +4 MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. IN
TERMS OF POPS...HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT FOR FRI/FRI NGT BUT HOLDING
SHY OF LIKELY AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST.

RECORD LOWS...
       16TH
SBN    22 (1935)
FWA    24 (1935)

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BRING CONTINUED PRECIP TO THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSBN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL FRONT TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
BRUNT OF THIS FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 06Z.
WHILE THIS FORCING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...DID AMEND TO INCLUDE SOME IFR VSBYS THROUGH
04Z AT KSBN. SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER
08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME. AN AREA OF EXPANDING RAIN ALSO WORKING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...AND NOT MUCH CHANGE
MADE TO PREVIOUS TAFS FOR KFWA IN THIS RESPECT. HAVE INCLUDED IFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA IN THE 05Z-08Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINAL. NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 150020
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
820 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 69.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF FORCING NOTED THIS EVENING. THE FIRST BEING
A HIGHLY ELEVATED AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS...BASED CLOSED TO 600 HPA
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NOW APPROACHING NORTHWEST INDIANA.
UPPER VORTICITY MAX WITH ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NWRN ILLINOIS IS HIGHLY SHEARED IN NATURE AND SHOULD TEND TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT. NAM 600
HPA F-VECTOR CONVERGENCE PROGS DO SUGGEST AXIS OF STRONGEST FGEN
FORCING GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH
OF WESTERN MICHIGAN SO SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW ORGANIZED
THIS BANDING WILL MAINTAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. STILL
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY UP TO AN INCH...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR NORTHWEST.

A SECOND VORT MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
ALREADY ACTIVATED AREA OF RAIN ALONG STRONG MID LEVEL FRONT...AND
THIS AREA OF PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD ESPECIALLY EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE
INITIALLY GIVEN SFC WET BULBS JUST ABOVE FREEZING AND POTENTIAL
MAINTENANCE OF VERY WEAK ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAT COULD INTRODUCE
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET BEFORE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. HAVE NOT MADE
MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WITH JUST SLIGHT
UPWARD ADJUSTMENT IN ACCUMULATIONS INTO THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE BEST CO-
LOCATION OF 700-600 HPA FGEN FORCING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXIST. GIVEN STRENGTH OF MID LEVEL FRONT/FGEN...WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY MESOSCALE BANDING ISSUES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES.

WILL LIKELY BE SENDING ANOTHER EVENING UPDATE IN THE NEXT HALF
HOUR TO FURTHER INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO ACCOUNT FOR
UPPER LEVEL FGEN FORCING...AND TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACCUMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UNSEASONABLE COLD HAS REPLACED YDAS UNSEASONABLE WARMTH W/24HR
CHGS IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES COLDER. ONLY THING KEEPING RECORD
MINS IN CHECK ARE CONTD EXTENSIVE LOW CLD CVR WITHIN MOIST
CYCLONIC FLW AND SUSTAINED SFC GRADIENT. TUE NIGHT IS ANOTHER
STORY HWVR.

LTL OF NOTE NR TERM OTHER THAN DEEPENING OF CAA WEDGE WHICH DOES NOT
HIT EQUILIBRIUM UNTIL MID MORNING TOMORROW. DRYSLOT WRAPPING NEWD
UNDERNEATH EJECTING LEAD SW OVR SRN ONTARIO HAD CUTOFF EARLIER SHRA
ACTIVITY HWVR STILL MOIST ENOUGH INVOF OF 850MB FNT TO FOSTER SOME
PATCHY DZ WHICH WILL CONT TO MIGRATE EWD THIS AFTN.

SHRT TERM DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO IF ANYTHING W/SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW
WHICH DRIVES EWD OVERNIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE SIMILAR IN SCOPE
ALOFT W/PRIOR GUIDANCE YET CERTAINLY DRIER WEST AND CENTRAL THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OFFER NO PANACEA EITHER
W/GENERALLY FRACTURED/THIN BAND OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FM ERN IA SWWD INTO SE KS. HWVR AREA OF ELEVATED CONVN BREAKING OUT
ACRS SWRN AR SOMETHING SVRL HIGHRES SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON AND
SUGGEST GENERAL NEWD CONSOLIDATION/EXPANSION THIS EVENING INTO ERN
ZONES. CONSENSUS QPF AXIS ALG/E OF A PORTLAND...DEFIANCE...WAUSEON
LINE SUGGEST SOME IMPACT PROBABLE LT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HWVR SFC TEMP AND UPSTREAM PCPN SHIELD UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE MAKING
ANY WWA HIGHLITE DECISIONS AT THIS POINT AND WILL DEFER TO EVENING
SHIFT TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS UPSTREAM.

OTRWS DEEP LYRD SUBSIDENT DRYING FOLLOWS ON TUES W/SKIES CLRG. HWVR
ANOMALOUSLY COLD LL THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS THROUGH AFTN BFR BREAKING
DOWN AND EVEN W/INSOLATION SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NEAR RECORD/RECORD COLD NIGHT IN STORE TO START THE PERIOD AS LAST
OF THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BEFORE SENDING LOWS
INTO THE LOWER 20S OR POSSIBLY A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS. WHILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FROST/FREEZE THIS FAR NORTH ISN`T NORMALLY AN
ISSUE...SOME BUDDING OF FRUIT BEARING TREES MAY BE UNDERWAY. WITH
LOWS THIS COLD...SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS. SOMETHING TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HGTS WILL HELP STEER THIS FEATURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
THAT WILL STALL OUT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW
STATES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT WITH SFC REFLECTION TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS KANSAS AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY. WHILE NO MASSIVE WARM UPS ARE IN STORE AT THIS POINT...850
MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO +2 TO +4 MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. IN
TERMS OF POPS...HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT FOR FRI/FRI NGT BUT HOLDING
SHY OF LIKELY AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST.

RECORD LOWS...
       16TH
SBN    22 (1935)
FWA    24 (1935)

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BRING CONTINUED PRECIP TO THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. PRIMARILY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KSBN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH UPPER LEVEL FRONT TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
BRUNT OF THIS FORCING SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINAL BY 06Z.
WHILE THIS FORCING SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD OVER
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...DID AMEND TO INCLUDE SOME IFR VSBYS THROUGH
04Z AT KSBN. SCT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER
08Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE IS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME. AN AREA OF EXPANDING RAIN ALSO WORKING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL INDIANA WILL GRADUALLY MIX WITH AND THEN CHANGE TO SNOW
LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...AND NOT MUCH CHANGE
MADE TO PREVIOUS TAFS FOR KFWA IN THIS RESPECT. HAVE INCLUDED IFR
CONDITIONS AT KFWA IN THE 05Z-08Z TIMEFRAME BEFORE STRONG MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE TERMINAL. NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY...AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS DRIER
AIR ADVECTS INTO REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 142242
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
640 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER TROUGH BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET...BUT WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE OR NOT IS MUCH
SHAKIER. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FACTORS POINT TOWARD
PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS SOME GOOD PRECIP RATES...OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AND EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS POINT TOWARD SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WARM
GROUND AND PAVEMENT WILL WORK HARD AGAINST ANY ACCUMULATION OCCURRING.

SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS ADEQUATE IF NOT SPECTACULAR...BUT VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS /RAIN OR SNOW/ SHOULD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REDEVELOP. BRIEF
HIGH PRECIP RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY WAY TO OVERCOME
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...WHICH UNDER PAVEMENT ARE RANGING FROM
55 TO 75 ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS...AND LATEST HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL BEGINNING TO HINT THAT MAJORITY OF SNOW COULD
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WITH LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE HERE.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO ARGUES AGAINST ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY THREE DATES
FROM THIS POINT OR LATER OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 30-40
YEARS.

IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS AT
MOST...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A STRETCH WITH MELTING OCCURRING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE/ENHANCED PRECIP RATES MAY MAKE FOR SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SNOW SIDE NW
INITIALLY...WITH TRANSITION IN THE IND METRO AROUND 03-04Z AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST MORE LIKE 04-06Z. ANYTHING FALLING AFTER 06Z
LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS TRACKED WELL WITH WETBULB TEMPS AND WERE USED
WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY
SIGNFICANT ISSUE BEING ONE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN ACCORDING TO OFFICE COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL AND STATE
AGRICULTURAL OFFICIALS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE 20S
ACROSS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. DO NOT
WANT TO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING QUITE YET TO AVOID MUDDYING THE
WATERS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
MINOR THEY MAY BE. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE
LIKELY UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL START VERY COLD...NEAR
RECORD LOW MAX NUMBERS TUESDAY...BUT WARM STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD THANKS
TO THE TIME OF YEAR. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS
WELL WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS A WAVE ALOFT PIVOTS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POORLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
REVERTING TO DRY WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR MID APRIL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINTS CONTINUE OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP BEYOND THE 7 DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U S EXPANDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 150000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

SHORT TERM MODEL DATA AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ORGANIZED LIFT/MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE TAF SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 150700Z. APPEARS THE BEST LIFT/HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN TAF SITES...KIND/KBMG. BEEN SOME OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE RAIN AREA MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
INDIANA. MODEL DATA SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING...SO AN EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STRIKE IN THE KIND/KBMG VICINITY IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

COLDER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL PROBABLY
BE A PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING WHERE THE RAIN WILL MIX WITH OR
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...ROUGHLY AFTER
150100Z.

LIFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES AROUND
150700Z...SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY THAT TIME. APPEARS
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN THE
PRECIPITATION AREA THIS EVENING...WITH CEILINGS SETTLING AROUND 015
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

FINALLY...SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS FROM 320-350 DEGREES
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 142041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
437 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER TROUGH BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET...BUT WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE OR NOT IS MUCH
SHAKIER. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FACTORS POINT TOWARD
PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS SOME GOOD PRECIP RATES...OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AND EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS POINT TOWARD SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WARM
GROUND AND PAVEMENT WILL WORK HARD AGAINST ANY ACCUMULATION OCCURRING.

SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS ADEQUATE IF NOT SPECTACULAR...BUT VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS /RAIN OR SNOW/ SHOULD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REDEVELOP. BRIEF
HIGH PRECIP RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY WAY TO OVERCOME
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...WHICH UNDER PAVEMENT ARE RANGING FROM
55 TO 75 ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS...AND LATEST HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL BEGINNING TO HINT THAT MAJORITY OF SNOW COULD
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WITH LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE HERE.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO ARGUES AGAINST ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY THREE DATES
FROM THIS POINT OR LATER OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 30-40
YEARS.

IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS AT
MOST...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A STRETCH WITH MELTING OCCURRING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE/ENHANCED PRECIP RATES MAY MAKE FOR SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SNOW SIDE NW
INITIALLY...WITH TRANSITION IN THE IND METRO AROUND 03-04Z AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST MORE LIKE 04-06Z. ANYTHING FALLING AFTER 06Z
LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS TRACKED WELL WITH WETBULB TEMPS AND WERE USED
WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY
SIGNFICANT ISSUE BEING ONE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN ACCORDING TO OFFICE COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL AND STATE
AGRICULTURAL OFFICIALS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE 20S
ACROSS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. DO NOT
WANT TO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING QUITE YET TO AVOID MUDDYING THE
WATERS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
MINOR THEY MAY BE. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE
LIKELY UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL START VERY COLD...NEAR
RECORD LOW MAX NUMBERS TUESDAY...BUT WARM STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD THANKS
TO THE TIME OF YEAR. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS
WELL WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS A WAVE ALOFT PIVOTS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POORLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
REVERTING TO DRY WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR MID APRIL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINTS CONTINUE OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP BEYOND THE 7 DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U S EXPANDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 142100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY ACROSS THE AREA. SHORT TERM MODEL
DATA SUGGEST MORE ORGANIZED LIFT WON/T PROBABLY ARRIVE TIL AROUND
SUNSET...SO STEADIER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

WILL LOWER THE WIND FORECAST SOME FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD PICK UP MORE AFTER DARK AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 010 FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT
THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE CEILINGS MAY DIP 008-009
AGL...ESPECIALLY NEAR PRECIPITATION AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH KBMG. RENEWED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
IMPACTING BOTH KBMG AND KIND. FURTHER WEST...VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AIR SETS IN. SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AND WILL RACE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...
FIRST AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN AS LIGHT SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO REASSERT THEMSELVES
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
QUICKLY EXPANDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO 3000-3500FT DURING THE MORNING...BUT
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL KEEP A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CU THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 141952
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER TROUGH BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH A
TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MEASURABLE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD
BET...BUT WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY ACCUMULATE OR NOT IS MUCH
SHAKIER. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AS FACTORS POINT TOWARD
PRECIPITATION...AND PERHAPS SOME GOOD PRECIP RATES...OCCURRING
THIS EVENING AND EARLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROGS POINT TOWARD SNOW BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT WARM
GROUND AND PAVEMENT WILL WORK HARD AGAINST ANY ACCUMULATION OCCURRING.

SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS ADEQUATE IF NOT SPECTACULAR...BUT VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE EPV INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS /RAIN OR SNOW/ SHOULD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS REDEVELOP. BRIEF
HIGH PRECIP RATES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE THE ONLY WAY TO OVERCOME
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...WHICH UNDER PAVEMENT ARE RANGING FROM
55 TO 75 ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY WORK AGAINST THIS...AND LATEST HIGH RES
RAPID REFRESH MODEL BEGINNING TO HINT THAT MAJORITY OF SNOW COULD
BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WITH LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE HERE.
CLIMATOLOGY ALSO ARGUES AGAINST ACCUMULATION WITH ONLY THREE DATES
FROM THIS POINT OR LATER OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IN THE LAST 30-40
YEARS.

IN ANY CASE...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS AT
MOST...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A STRETCH WITH MELTING OCCURRING
FAIRLY QUICKLY ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH AFOREMENTIONED
CONVECTIVE/ENHANCED PRECIP RATES MAY MAKE FOR SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES TONIGHT.

ANY PRECIP LIKELY TO BE MORE TOWARD THE SNOW SIDE NW
INITIALLY...WITH TRANSITION IN THE IND METRO AROUND 03-04Z AND
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST MORE LIKE 04-06Z. ANYTHING FALLING AFTER 06Z
LIKELY TO BE ALL SNOW.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS TRACKED WELL WITH WETBULB TEMPS AND WERE USED
WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY
SIGNFICANT ISSUE BEING ONE OF FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
BEGUN ACCORDING TO OFFICE COLLABORATION WITH LOCAL AND STATE
AGRICULTURAL OFFICIALS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE 20S
ACROSS ESSENTIALLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
FREEZING CONDITIONS APPEARING LIKELY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WATCH PREVIOUSLY ISSUED. DO NOT
WANT TO UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING QUITE YET TO AVOID MUDDYING THE
WATERS WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS TONIGHT...HOWEVER
MINOR THEY MAY BE. WILL ALLOW MID SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE
LIKELY UPGRADE TO FREEZE WARNING.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL START VERY COLD...NEAR
RECORD LOW MAX NUMBERS TUESDAY...BUT WARM STEADILY THROUGHOUT THE
SHORT TERM...GETTING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD THANKS
TO THE TIME OF YEAR. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS
WELL WITH A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS A WAVE ALOFT PIVOTS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POORLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
REVERTING TO DRY WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR MID APRIL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINTS CONTINUE OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP BEYOND THE 7 DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U S EXPANDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH KBMG. RENEWED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
IMPACTING BOTH KBMG AND KIND. FURTHER WEST...VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AIR SETS IN. SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AND WILL RACE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...
FIRST AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN AS LIGHT SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO REASSERT THEMSELVES
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
QUICKLY EXPANDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO 3000-3500FT DURING THE MORNING...BUT
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL KEEP A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CU THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 141919
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
319 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
BEGIN AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL
SNOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 69.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UNSEASONABLE COLD HAS REPLACED YDAS UNSEASONABLE WARMTH W/24HR
CHGS IN EXCESS OF 30 DEGREES COLDER. ONLY THING KEEPING RECORD
MINS IN CHECK ARE CONTD EXTENSIVE LOW CLD CVR WITHIN MOIST
CYCLONIC FLW AND SUSTAINED SFC GRADIENT. TUE NIGHT IS ANOTHER
STORY HWVR.

LTL OF NOTE NR TERM OTHER THAN DEEPENING OF CAA WEDGE WHICH DOES NOT
HIT EQUILIBRIUM UNTIL MID MORNING TOMORROW. DRYSLOT WRAPPING NEWD
UNDERNEATH EJECTING LEAD SW OVR SRN ONTARIO HAD CUTOFF EARLIER SHRA
ACTIVITY HWVR STILL MOIST ENOUGH INVOF OF 850MB FNT TO FOSTER SOME
PATCHY DZ WHICH WILL CONT TO MIGRATE EWD THIS AFTN.

SHRT TERM DILEMMA IS WHAT TO DO IF ANYTHING W/SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW
WHICH DRIVES EWD OVERNIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE SIMILAR IN SCOPE
ALOFT W/PRIOR GUIDANCE YET CERTAINLY DRIER WEST AND CENTRAL THIS
EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OFFER NO PANACEA EITHER
W/GENERALLY FRACTURED/THIN BAND OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
FM ERN IA SWWD INTO SE KS. HWVR AREA OF ELEVATED CONVN BREAKING OUT
ACRS SWRN AR SOMETHING SVRL HIGHRES SOLUTIONS ARE KEYING IN ON AND
SUGGEST GENERAL NEWD CONSOLIDATION/EXPANSION THIS EVENING INTO ERN
ZONES. CONSENSUS QPF AXIS ALG/E OF A PORTLAND...DEFIANCE...WAUSEON
LINE SUGGEST SOME IMPACT PROBABLE LT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HWVR SFC TEMP AND UPSTREAM PCPN SHIELD UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE MAKING
ANY WWA HIGHLITE DECISIONS AT THIS POINT AND WILL DEFER TO EVENING
SHIFT TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS UPSTREAM.

OTRWS DEEP LYRD SUBSIDENT DRYING FOLLOWS ON TUES W/SKIES CLRG. HWVR
ANOMALOUSLY COLD LL THERMAL TROUGH LINGERS THROUGH AFTN BFR BREAKING
DOWN AND EVEN W/INSOLATION SFC TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NEAR RECORD/RECORD COLD NIGHT IN STORE TO START THE PERIOD AS LAST
OF THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BUT NOT BEFORE SENDING LOWS
INTO THE LOWER 20S OR POSSIBLY A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS. WHILE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FROST/FREEZE THIS FAR NORTH ISN`T NORMALLY AN
ISSUE...SOME BUDDING OF FRUIT BEARING TREES MAY BE UNDERWAY. WITH
LOWS THIS COLD...SOME POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS. SOMETHING TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HGTS WILL HELP STEER THIS FEATURE WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL DRAG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION
THAT WILL STALL OUT. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE SW
STATES WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT WITH SFC REFLECTION TAKING SHAPE
ACROSS KANSAS AND THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY
FRIDAY. WHILE NO MASSIVE WARM UPS ARE IN STORE AT THIS POINT...850
MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO +2 TO +4 MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. IN
TERMS OF POPS...HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT FOR FRI/FRI NGT BUT HOLDING
SHY OF LIKELY AS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST.

RECORD LOWS...
       16TH
SBN    22 (1935)
FWA    24 (1935)

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST WITHIN MOIST CYCLONIC FLW ALOFT.
SECONDARY UPSTREAM SW DISTURBANCE POSITIONED THROUGH THE CNTRL CONUS
WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT AND SPRT THE DVLPMNT OF A BAND OF SNOW
INVOF OF MID LVL FNTL BNDRY ACRS ERN ZONES THIS EVENING. PD OF IFR
VSBYS IN -RASN/SN LIKELY AT KFWA BUT XPC KSBN WILL HOLD DRY UNDER
LAKE SHADOW. OTRWS STG NWRLY GRADIENT FLW WILL CONT THROUGH THE PD
W/SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS AT TIMES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 141848
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAMPING THEM BACK UP AGAIN LATE AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WAS ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER AS WELL.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
MUCH OF THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING OF RAIN TODAY AND TEMPERATURE TREND WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS WIND GUST POTENTIAL. RAIN COULD BE FOUND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 330 AM. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
PROGS SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL DECREASING BY 12Z IN THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
BE INTO THE AREA BY 15Z AND NEARING KIND. BY 18Z LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WILL BRING AN END TO
ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL /DID CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND
30-35 KTS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BETWEEN NOW AND
ABOUT 16Z OR SO. GUSTS WILL THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF
ACTIVITY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING AROUND 21Z AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AT THAT POINT FOR ALL RAIN. SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON AND WENT FOR HIGHS AT 12Z
EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE
DEGREES BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FOR THOSE WHO WERE MISSING IT...WINTER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
VERY COLD AIR BLOWS IN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAT IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z. WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THAT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP
CHANGING FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOIL TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM AFTER A FEW DAYS IN THE 70S AND SO ARE ROAD SURFACE
AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH RAIN TO START AND THEN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS WELL...THINK IT
IMPROBABLE TO ACCUMULATE ANYWHERE NEAR THAT MUCH SNOW. PUT A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN OVER NORTHERN HALF OR SO AND EXPECT IT
TO MELT. SHOULD NOTE THOUGH THAT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN SNOW EVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND. ALSO WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND THIS WIND SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM BEING A
PROBLEM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND DRIES OUT THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
FOR THE DAY AND COULD SEE SOME STRATOCU HANG AROUND DURING THE
DAY. SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT THOUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 20S. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD EXPECTED
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT GROWING HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WITH A
COUPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER FLOW. MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AS A WAVE ALOFT PIVOTS THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A POORLY ORGANIZED
SURFACE LOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER WAVE...BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
REVERTING TO DRY WEATHER AS A SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SOUTH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL FOR MID APRIL...RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE PERIOD. HINTS CONTINUE OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP BEYOND THE 7 DAY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U S EXPANDS EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH KBMG. RENEWED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
IMPACTING BOTH KBMG AND KIND. FURTHER WEST...VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AIR SETS IN. SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AND WILL RACE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...
FIRST AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN AS LIGHT SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO REASSERT THEMSELVES
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
QUICKLY EXPANDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO 3000-3500FT DURING THE MORNING...BUT
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL KEEP A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CU THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 141659
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1259 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAMPING THEM BACK UP AGAIN LATE AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WAS ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER AS WELL.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
MUCH OF THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING OF RAIN TODAY AND TEMPERATURE TREND WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS WIND GUST POTENTIAL. RAIN COULD BE FOUND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 330 AM. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
PROGS SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL DECREASING BY 12Z IN THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
BE INTO THE AREA BY 15Z AND NEARING KIND. BY 18Z LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WILL BRING AN END TO
ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL /DID CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND
30-35 KTS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BETWEEN NOW AND
ABOUT 16Z OR SO. GUSTS WILL THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF
ACTIVITY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING AROUND 21Z AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AT THAT POINT FOR ALL RAIN. SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON AND WENT FOR HIGHS AT 12Z
EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE
DEGREES BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FOR THOSE WHO WERE MISSING IT...WINTER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
VERY COLD AIR BLOWS IN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAT IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z. WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THAT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP
CHANGING FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOIL TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM AFTER A FEW DAYS IN THE 70S AND SO ARE ROAD SURFACE
AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH RAIN TO START AND THEN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS WELL...THINK IT
IMPROBABLE TO ACCUMULATE ANYWHERE NEAR THAT MUCH SNOW. PUT A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN OVER NORTHERN HALF OR SO AND EXPECT IT
TO MELT. SHOULD NOTE THOUGH THAT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN SNOW EVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND. ALSO WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND THIS WIND SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM BEING A
PROBLEM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND DRIES OUT THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
FOR THE DAY AND COULD SEE SOME STRATOCU HANG AROUND DURING THE
DAY. SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT THOUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 20S. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD EXPECTED
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT GROWING HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON POPS AND TEMPERATURES AS PAIR
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA
NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A COLD START TO
THE WEEK. THEN...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM. CONSENSUS AND
REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY. THEN...AFTER A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD...MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A
WEAK PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

REGIONAL BLEND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK OK CONSIDERING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SKY COVER AND WEATHER. SHOULD
MOSTLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 141800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH KBMG. RENEWED PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...
IMPACTING BOTH KBMG AND KIND. FURTHER WEST...VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AIR SETS IN. SECONDARY WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER AND WILL RACE
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IMPACTING THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING...
FIRST AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN AS LIGHT SNOW AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS BELOW FREEZING. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO REASSERT THEMSELVES
WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KTS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
QUICKLY EXPANDS EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO 3000-3500FT DURING THE MORNING...BUT
COMBINATION OF CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN
THE 30S WILL KEEP A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF CU THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 141447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1047 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAMPING THEM BACK UP AGAIN LATE AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WAS ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER AS WELL.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
MUCH OF THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING OF RAIN TODAY AND TEMPERATURE TREND WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS WIND GUST POTENTIAL. RAIN COULD BE FOUND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 330 AM. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
PROGS SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL DECREASING BY 12Z IN THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
BE INTO THE AREA BY 15Z AND NEARING KIND. BY 18Z LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WILL BRING AN END TO
ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL /DID CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND
30-35 KTS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BETWEEN NOW AND
ABOUT 16Z OR SO. GUSTS WILL THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF
ACTIVITY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING AROUND 21Z AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AT THAT POINT FOR ALL RAIN. SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON AND WENT FOR HIGHS AT 12Z
EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE
DEGREES BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FOR THOSE WHO WERE MISSING IT...WINTER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
VERY COLD AIR BLOWS IN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAT IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z. WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THAT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP
CHANGING FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOIL TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM AFTER A FEW DAYS IN THE 70S AND SO ARE ROAD SURFACE
AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH RAIN TO START AND THEN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS WELL...THINK IT
IMPROBABLE TO ACCUMULATE ANYWHERE NEAR THAT MUCH SNOW. PUT A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN OVER NORTHERN HALF OR SO AND EXPECT IT
TO MELT. SHOULD NOTE THOUGH THAT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN SNOW EVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND. ALSO WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND THIS WIND SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM BEING A
PROBLEM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND DRIES OUT THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
FOR THE DAY AND COULD SEE SOME STRATOCU HANG AROUND DURING THE
DAY. SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT THOUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 20S. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD EXPECTED
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT GROWING HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON POPS AND TEMPERATURES AS PAIR
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA
NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A COLD START TO
THE WEEK. THEN...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM. CONSENSUS AND
REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY. THEN...AFTER A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD...MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A
WEAK PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

REGIONAL BLEND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK OK CONSIDERING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SKY COVER AND WEATHER. SHOULD
MOSTLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS KBMG AND KIND BY 16Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWEST FOR THE AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING PLENTY OF LOW MVFR
CEILINGS AT 1000-1500FT...AND EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL BEFORE RISING A BIT. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE WESTERN SITES AROUND ISSUANCE TIME AND IND AND BMG
AROUND 14Z. UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANGEOVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. DOES NOT LOOK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AROUND TO INCLUDE THUNDER WITH THE FRONT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
TRENDS SUPPORT THIS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 141416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN TODAY WILL CHANGE TO SNOW TONIGHT AS COLD AIR RUSHES INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE
AREA...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT FROM THE HIGH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
MODERATE SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AND RETURN TO SEASONAL ON THURSDAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HOURLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
RAMPING THEM BACK UP AGAIN LATE AS THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...WAS ABLE TO REMOVE THUNDER AS WELL.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING
MUCH OF THE DAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING OF RAIN TODAY AND TEMPERATURE TREND WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WELL AS WIND GUST POTENTIAL. RAIN COULD BE FOUND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT 330 AM. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
PROGS SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL DECREASING BY 12Z IN THE NORTHWEST
ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS NEAR. LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL
BE INTO THE AREA BY 15Z AND NEARING KIND. BY 18Z LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A
BRIEF LULL IN RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS WELL AS WILL BRING AN END TO
ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL /DID CONTINUE TO CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY/. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MOST MODELS AGREE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND
30-35 KTS WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING BETWEEN NOW AND
ABOUT 16Z OR SO. GUSTS WILL THEN PICK BACK UP AGAIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF
ACTIVITY MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST STARTING AROUND 21Z AND
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AT THAT POINT FOR ALL RAIN. SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THIS AFTERNOON AND WENT FOR HIGHS AT 12Z
EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD SEE AN INCREASE OF A COUPLE
DEGREES BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

FOR THOSE WHO WERE MISSING IT...WINTER RETURNS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
VERY COLD AIR BLOWS IN AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY.
WITH ANOTHER UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH PROVIDING GOOD UPPER LEVEL
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS THAT IS MAXIMIZED BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z. WENT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THAT TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP
CHANGING FROM RAIN OVER TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOIL TEMPERATURES
ARE VERY WARM AFTER A FEW DAYS IN THE 70S AND SO ARE ROAD SURFACE
AND SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH RAIN TO START AND THEN A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW AS WELL...THINK IT
IMPROBABLE TO ACCUMULATE ANYWHERE NEAR THAT MUCH SNOW. PUT A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH IN OVER NORTHERN HALF OR SO AND EXPECT IT
TO MELT. SHOULD NOTE THOUGH THAT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
SIGNIFICANTLY IN SNOW EVEN WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION ON THE
GROUND. ALSO WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA SHOULD SEE WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE NIGHT...AND THIS WIND SHOULD KEEP FROST FROM BEING A
PROBLEM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AND DRIES OUT THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 20 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS
FOR THE DAY AND COULD SEE SOME STRATOCU HANG AROUND DURING THE
DAY. SKIES CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT THOUGH ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE 20S. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS COLD EXPECTED
HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT GROWING HAS ALREADY BEGUN.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 50S AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

MAIN FOCUS TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON POPS AND TEMPERATURES AS PAIR
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BRING SHOWER CHANCES TO CENTRAL INDIANA
NEXT WEEKEND.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
COAST WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL AFTER A COLD START TO
THE WEEK. THEN...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS UPPER SYSTEM. CONSENSUS AND
REGIONAL BLEND SUGGESTS MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WOULD NOT RULE OUT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO
SATURDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY. THEN...AFTER A BRIEF DRY
PERIOD...MORE SHOWER CHANCES ARE IN STORE BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS A
WEAK PLAINS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

REGIONAL BLEND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK OK CONSIDERING LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS ALONG WITH EXPECTED SKY COVER AND WEATHER. SHOULD
MOSTLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 141200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO REACH THE WESTERN SITES AROUND ISSUANCE TIME AND IND AND BMG
AROUND 14Z. UPPER TROUGH WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANGEOVER
FROM RAIN TO SNOW. DOES NOT LOOK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AROUND TO INCLUDE THUNDER WITH THE FRONT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
TRENDS SUPPORT THIS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. DIRECTION WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR INZ060-061-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK

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