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000
FXUS63 KIWX 300802
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
402 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY...BRINGING A HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN TO THE AREA. A
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF ROUTE 30. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEPS
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE...REACHING IN TO THE 50S FOR HIGHS.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO AROUND 50
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH 12Z THIS
MORNING AS SFC WARM FRONT AND INCREASED THETA E SURGE REMAINS
FROM EAST OF KANSAS CITY TO NORTH OF ST LOUIS INTO NW KENTUCKY.
WHILE NORTHWARD PROGRESS IS BEING MADE IT IS VERY SLOW AS
SUGGESTED TO BY MAJORITY OF MODELS. SOME LIGHTER PRECIP WAS NOTED
FROM SE IOWA INTO CENTRAL IL BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SPRINKLES NOTED.
SUSPECT THIS AREA WILL WEAKEN SOME AS IT PROGRESSES NORTH AND
ENCOUNTERS A SOMEWHAT DRIER NE FLOW BUT COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES
OR BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO FAR SW AREAS PRIOR TO 12Z. BASED
ON THIS HAVE CONTINUED WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOWER TREND TO ARRIVAL OF
RAIN AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AFTER 12Z SAT AND PEAKS 18Z TO 00Z
SUN WITH 40 TO 50 KT CROSS FLOW OVER 295 TO 300K PRESSURE SURFACES
YIELDING WHAT SHOULD TURN OUT TO BE A LARGE AREA OF STEADY RAIN.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME THUNDER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA...BUT
GREATEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WOULD OCCUR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK
OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. HAVE
LEFT SLGT CHC THUNDER MENTION LATE AM INTO EARLY EVE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF US 30 WITH NO SIG CHANGES FOR THE AREA ON THE NEW DAY 1
SPC OUTLOOK. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE AN
INCH OR SO.

RAINFALL COULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN TOWARDS 00Z SUN IN SW AREAS BUT
HAVE KEPT CAT POPS INTO EARLY EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO CHC
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURES AS WARM FRONT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR/SOUTH OF US-24
CORRIDOR BY 12Z SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

A LULL IN GREATER RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY SUNDAY AS
LEAD SHORT WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE VEERED. RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DAMPENING/SHEARING UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY. IT STILL APPEARS AS
THOUGH BEST CHANNELED DCVA SHOULD AFFECT ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OF LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY IS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND EXTENT OF THUNDER. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SUNDAY WITH NAM/GFS EXHIBITING QUITE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. 00Z NAM REMAINS A FAST/STRONG OUTLIER IN
TERMS OF SFC REFLECTION THROUGH THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
COMPARISON TO BULK OF OTHER GUIDANCE. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT NAM MAY
BE TOO INFLUENCED BY PRIOR 12-24 HOUR UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE CONTAMINATED WITH SFC/LOW LEVEL EVOLUTION EARLY
SUNDAY. WITH PREFERENCE TO SLOWER EC/GFS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGING/INSTABILITY AXIS WOULD EXHIBIT GREATER NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION...DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND
ABILITY TO REALIZE THESE STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINS AN
ITEM OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. DID EXPAND ISOLD THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT POTENTIAL OF FEW
STRONGER STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
GIVEN POTENTIAL WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING SHEAR
PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SPEED MAX NOSING ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY PLACING THE AREA IN FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION...BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO
WHERE SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT SETS UP.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...POCKET OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
EXITING THE EAST WITH UPPER PV ANOMALY SLOW TO DEPART. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE ON EARLY MONDAY WITH
JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
MONDAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S...BUT AIR MASS WILL
BE CONSIDERABLY DRIER.

GENERAL THEME OF THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNCHANGED
WITH UPPER VORT EXPECTED TO DROP ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH NEXT FROPA FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL W-NW
FLOW WILL LIMIT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH BAND OF SHOWERS LIKELY TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
WFOS DID GO A LITTLE COOLER FOR THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY PERIOD AS
CONFIDENCE IN BROAD LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW SEASONABLE
NORMS FOR END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE SET IN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODED OUT WITH NE FLOW.
THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BE IN STORE WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE 15
TO 18Z WINDOW AND THEN CONTINUING DOWN FROM THERE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT
WORTH A MENTION FOR NOW.

GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS LOW APPROACHES. FINALLY...WHILE A THREAT FOR THUNDER
MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND SPARSE COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS BY
THIS EVENING AND ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO SUNDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA LATE SUNDAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  HOWEVER MODELS MOVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AFTER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA AS WELL
AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  ALL MODELS SHOW A
RAPID INCREASE OF RAIN SHOWERS NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY MID
MORNING.  RAPID REFRESH INDICATES NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MID MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PRECIPITATION MAY DIMINISH SOME THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  MODELS MOVE A WARM FRONT INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN STALL IT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUR WAY.

SPC INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
SULLIVAN TO SEYMOUR LINE WHICH WOULD BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRETTY GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR...BUT INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTH WHERE MU CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TODAY.    CONCERNING TEMPERATURES HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 50S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 70 FAR SOUTHWEST.

SOME MODELS INDICATE A 2ND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS LATE
TONIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...WENT CLOSER TO 3 HOUR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS THEY
WILL BE NEAR STEADY...EXCEPT FAR NORTH WHERE THEY MAY FALL SOME LATE TONIGHT
AFTER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES BY.   WENT WITH LOWS FROM NEAR 50 FAR NORTHWEST
TO ALMOST 60 SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MODELS MOVE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TO THE EAST AND MOVE A COLD FRONT
SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION SUNDAY.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA LATE SUNDAY AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WENT WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS
SUNDAY MORNING AND LIKELY POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.   SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

LATEST MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MORE CLOUDS MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S. MONDAY...BUT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES WENT A LITTLE ABOVE A MOS BLEND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH.   MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.   LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT AND
IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT WHICH IS NEAR A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...THE PATTERN WILL
QUICKLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...FINALLY SETTLING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY.  PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE DELMARVA AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON THE BACK
SIDE. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
AFTER AROUND DAYBREAK TIME FRAME SATURDAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
THREAT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL SITES.

MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE IN THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AT FIRST...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10-13KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 300539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
139 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE
INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO
LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

MINOR GRID UPDATE DONE TO SLOW ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY
AFTER 12Z. LEFT A TOKEN SLIGHT CHC PRIOR TO 12Z FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL WAIT TILL AFTER
12Z...POTENTIALLY AS LATE AS THE 15 TO 18Z WINDOW. ALSO ADJUSTED
SKY COVER SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR LOSS OF LOWER CLOUDS BUT STILL
PLENTY OF CIRRUS TO MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CLIPPED NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND
GENERATED A BIT MORE PCPN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THAT WAVE IS
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON AND PCPN HAS ENDED. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
HAS HELPED BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WAVES EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OR BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 40 IN NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

STRONG THETA E SURGE SHOWN BY MOST MODELS FOR SATURDAY WITH LARGE
AREA OF PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN
THE SOUTH EARLY TO MID MORNING. INITIAL THETA SURGE MAY GENERATE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL BY MID MORNING BUT BULK OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL ADVANCE INTO THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT SHOULD OVERWHELM
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AS DAY PROGRESSES. WITH ALL MODELS ON BOARD
AND NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING HAVE BUMPED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH END CATEGORICAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY LIKELY IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. ANOTHER COOL AND RAW DAY FOR LATE APRIL
WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST AND STIFF EAST
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT (NOSE OF 1" PWAT
PLUME) AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AROUND A PLAINS
UPPER LOW. ALSO JUST ENOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION SOUTHERN HALF. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHEAR EASTWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSING
ALONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUALITY/FORCING WANES...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK ML DESTABILIZATION NEAR SFC PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPS
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OTHERWISE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MORE DOMINANT EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHING WILL THEN SETTLE IN
FOR NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY) AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE SET IN AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODED OUT WITH NE FLOW.
THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
BE IN STORE WITH FLIGHT CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR IN THE 15
TO 18Z WINDOW AND THEN CONTINUING DOWN FROM THERE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT
WORTH A MENTION FOR NOW.

GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS LOW APPROACHES. FINALLY...WHILE A THREAT FOR THUNDER
MAY EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF
GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND SPARSE COVERAGE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 300457
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1257 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW...OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WILL
GRADUALLY HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL DRY
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS BRING MORE SHOWERS
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST
GENERALLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH MORE ORGANIZED LIFT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BASED ON THIS...WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING AND
SPACIAL EXTEND OF THE LIKELY POPS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE BETTER LIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON
HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GET.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER
WINDS WILL THEN BACK IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERN STATES STATIONARY FRONT RETURNING NORTH TO NEAR A
SIKESTON MISSOURI TO CHATTANOOGA LINE BY 12Z. MODELS ALL SHOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 305K LEVEL NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
UPPER IMPULSES EJECTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH ALL FAVOR THE FASTER 12Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...NAM AND GEM OVER THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. THIS
WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK.

INSTABILITY PROGS FAVOR LEAVING THUNDER OUT TONIGHT.

WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...FAVOR TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SIMILAR 12Z MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON RAINFALL TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WHERE
SOME COULD BE SEVERE.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS
INDICATED BY THE 12 HOUR QPF ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. MODEL BLEND HAS NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
AN INCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 74. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
DAY2. THERE IS EVEN A SLIVER OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AN 85 KNOT 250
MILLIBAR JET STREAK WILL MOVE TO THE WABASH VALLEY.

SHOULD SEE THE SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO AN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH...THE FRONT CAMPS OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST.

STAYED CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE BELOW NORMAL MODEL BLEND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE AS THE AREA WILL BE IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. FINALLY...WILL GO WITH NEAR OR ABOVE BLEND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH IT. AS IT MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HANG AROUND IN
THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER...AND ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY ANY FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL
SO NOTHING GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
AFTER AROUND DAYBREAK TIME FRAME SATURDAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
THREAT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL SITES.

MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE IN THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AT FIRST...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10-13KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JAS
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 300457
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1257 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW...OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WILL
GRADUALLY HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL DRY
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS BRING MORE SHOWERS
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST
GENERALLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH MORE ORGANIZED LIFT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BASED ON THIS...WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING AND
SPACIAL EXTEND OF THE LIKELY POPS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE BETTER LIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON
HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GET.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER
WINDS WILL THEN BACK IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERN STATES STATIONARY FRONT RETURNING NORTH TO NEAR A
SIKESTON MISSOURI TO CHATTANOOGA LINE BY 12Z. MODELS ALL SHOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 305K LEVEL NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
UPPER IMPULSES EJECTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH ALL FAVOR THE FASTER 12Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...NAM AND GEM OVER THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. THIS
WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK.

INSTABILITY PROGS FAVOR LEAVING THUNDER OUT TONIGHT.

WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...FAVOR TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SIMILAR 12Z MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON RAINFALL TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WHERE
SOME COULD BE SEVERE.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS
INDICATED BY THE 12 HOUR QPF ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. MODEL BLEND HAS NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
AN INCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 74. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
DAY2. THERE IS EVEN A SLIVER OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AN 85 KNOT 250
MILLIBAR JET STREAK WILL MOVE TO THE WABASH VALLEY.

SHOULD SEE THE SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO AN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH...THE FRONT CAMPS OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST.

STAYED CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE BELOW NORMAL MODEL BLEND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE AS THE AREA WILL BE IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. FINALLY...WILL GO WITH NEAR OR ABOVE BLEND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH IT. AS IT MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HANG AROUND IN
THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER...AND ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY ANY FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL
SO NOTHING GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1256 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
AFTER AROUND DAYBREAK TIME FRAME SATURDAY...WITH IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
THREAT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL SITES.

MAY SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR A TIME LATE IN THE PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AT FIRST...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10-13KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JAS
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 300135
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW...OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WILL
GRADUALLY HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL DRY
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS BRING MORE SHOWERS
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST
GENERALLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH MORE ORGANIZED LIFT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BASED ON THIS...WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING AND
SPACIAL EXTEND OF THE LIKELY POPS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE BETTER LIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON
HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GET.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER
WINDS WILL THEN BACK IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERN STATES STATIONARY FRONT RETURNING NORTH TO NEAR A
SIKESTON MISSOURI TO CHATTANOOGA LINE BY 12Z. MODELS ALL SHOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 305K LEVEL NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
UPPER IMPULSES EJECTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH ALL FAVOR THE FASTER 12Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...NAM AND GEM OVER THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. THIS
WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK.

INSTABILITY PROGS FAVOR LEAVING THUNDER OUT TONIGHT.

WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...FAVOR TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SIMILAR 12Z MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON RAINFALL TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WHERE
SOME COULD BE SEVERE.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS
INDICATED BY THE 12 HOUR QPF ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. MODEL BLEND HAS NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
AN INCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 74. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
DAY2. THERE IS EVEN A SLIVER OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AN 85 KNOT 250
MILLIBAR JET STREAK WILL MOVE TO THE WABASH VALLEY.

SHOULD SEE THE SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO AN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH...THE FRONT CAMPS OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST.

STAYED CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE BELOW NORMAL MODEL BLEND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE AS THE AREA WILL BE IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. FINALLY...WILL GO WITH NEAR OR ABOVE BLEND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH IT. AS IT MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HANG AROUND IN
THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER...AND ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY ANY FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL
SO NOTHING GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL BUT LAF EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
LAF WILL BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND DAYBREAK TIME FRAME SATURDAY...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
A THREAT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL SITES.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AT FIRST...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10-13KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JAS
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 300135
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW...OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WILL
GRADUALLY HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL DRY
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS BRING MORE SHOWERS
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST
GENERALLY WEAK WARM ADVECTION/LIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH MORE ORGANIZED LIFT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ZONES TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BASED ON THIS...WILL BACK OFF ON THE TIMING AND
SPACIAL EXTEND OF THE LIKELY POPS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE BETTER LIFT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON
HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GET.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER
WINDS WILL THEN BACK IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERN STATES STATIONARY FRONT RETURNING NORTH TO NEAR A
SIKESTON MISSOURI TO CHATTANOOGA LINE BY 12Z. MODELS ALL SHOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 305K LEVEL NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
UPPER IMPULSES EJECTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH ALL FAVOR THE FASTER 12Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...NAM AND GEM OVER THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. THIS
WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK.

INSTABILITY PROGS FAVOR LEAVING THUNDER OUT TONIGHT.

WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...FAVOR TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SIMILAR 12Z MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON RAINFALL TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WHERE
SOME COULD BE SEVERE.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS
INDICATED BY THE 12 HOUR QPF ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. MODEL BLEND HAS NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
AN INCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 74. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
DAY2. THERE IS EVEN A SLIVER OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AN 85 KNOT 250
MILLIBAR JET STREAK WILL MOVE TO THE WABASH VALLEY.

SHOULD SEE THE SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO AN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH...THE FRONT CAMPS OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST.

STAYED CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE BELOW NORMAL MODEL BLEND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE AS THE AREA WILL BE IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. FINALLY...WILL GO WITH NEAR OR ABOVE BLEND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH IT. AS IT MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HANG AROUND IN
THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER...AND ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY ANY FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL
SO NOTHING GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL BUT LAF EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
LAF WILL BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND DAYBREAK TIME FRAME SATURDAY...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
A THREAT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL SITES.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AT FIRST...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10-13KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JAS
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 292319
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
719 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CLIPPED NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND
GENERATED A BIT MORE PCPN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THAT WAVE IS
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON AND PCPN HAS ENDED. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
HAS HELPED BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WAVES EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OR BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 40 IN NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

STRONG THETA E SURGE SHOWN BY MOST MODELS FOR SATURDAY WITH LARGE
AREA OF PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN
THE SOUTH EARLY TO MID MORNING. INITIAL THETA SURGE MAY GENERATE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL BY MID MORNING BUT BULK OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL ADVANCE INTO THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT SHOULD OVERWHELM
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AS DAY PROGRESSES. WITH ALL MODELS ON BOARD
AND NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING HAVE BUMPED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH END CATEGORICAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY LIKELY IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. ANOTHER COOL AND RAW DAY FOR LATE APRIL
WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST AND STIFF EAST
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT (NOSE OF 1" PWAT
PLUME) AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AROUND A PLAINS
UPPER LOW. ALSO JUST ENOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION SOUTHERN HALF. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHEAR EASTWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSING
ALONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUALITY/FORCING WANES...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK ML DESTABILIZATION NEAR SFC PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPS
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OTHERWISE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MORE DOMINANT EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHING WILL THEN SETTLE IN
FOR NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY) AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WK N-NELY FLOW SUSTAINING MVFR CIGS BENEATH LOW LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THIS AFTN. DIURNAL MIXING AND WK DRY AIR ADVECTION
WAS ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CIGS
TO THE NE. THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR AN IMPROVING TREND TO THE LOW CIGS
BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING ONSET OF VFR CONDITIONS IS LOW. LOW
PRESSURE OVER TX EXPECTED TO LIFT NE INTO CENTRAL IL BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA. A LARGE BAND OF OVER-RUNNING RAIN SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS NRN INDIANA AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT CAUSING AVIATION
CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 292314
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
714 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW...OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WILL
GRADUALLY HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL DRY
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS BRING MORE SHOWERS
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON
HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GET.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER
WINDS WILL THEN BACK IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERN STATES STATIONARY FRONT RETURNING NORTH TO NEAR A
SIKESTON MISSOURI TO CHATTANOOGA LINE BY 12Z. MODELS ALL SHOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 305K LEVEL NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
UPPER IMPULSES EJECTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH ALL FAVOR THE FASTER 12Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...NAM AND GEM OVER THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. THIS
WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK.

INSTABILITY PROGS FAVOR LEAVING THUNDER OUT TONIGHT.

WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...FAVOR TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SIMILAR 12Z MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON RAINFALL TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WHERE
SOME COULD BE SEVERE.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS
INDICATED BY THE 12 HOUR QPF ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. MODEL BLEND HAS NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
AN INCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 74. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
DAY2. THERE IS EVEN A SLIVER OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AN 85 KNOT 250
MILLIBAR JET STREAK WILL MOVE TO THE WABASH VALLEY.

SHOULD SEE THE SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO AN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH...THE FRONT CAMPS OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST.

STAYED CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE BELOW NORMAL MODEL BLEND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE AS THE AREA WILL BE IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. FINALLY...WILL GO WITH NEAR OR ABOVE BLEND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH IT. AS IT MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HANG AROUND IN
THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER...AND ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY ANY FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL
SO NOTHING GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL BUT LAF EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
LAF WILL BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND DAYBREAK TIME FRAME SATURDAY...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
A THREAT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL SITES.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AT FIRST...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10-13KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 292314
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
714 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW...OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WILL
GRADUALLY HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL DRY
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS BRING MORE SHOWERS
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON
HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GET.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER
WINDS WILL THEN BACK IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERN STATES STATIONARY FRONT RETURNING NORTH TO NEAR A
SIKESTON MISSOURI TO CHATTANOOGA LINE BY 12Z. MODELS ALL SHOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 305K LEVEL NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
UPPER IMPULSES EJECTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH ALL FAVOR THE FASTER 12Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...NAM AND GEM OVER THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. THIS
WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK.

INSTABILITY PROGS FAVOR LEAVING THUNDER OUT TONIGHT.

WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...FAVOR TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SIMILAR 12Z MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON RAINFALL TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WHERE
SOME COULD BE SEVERE.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS
INDICATED BY THE 12 HOUR QPF ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. MODEL BLEND HAS NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
AN INCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 74. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
DAY2. THERE IS EVEN A SLIVER OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AN 85 KNOT 250
MILLIBAR JET STREAK WILL MOVE TO THE WABASH VALLEY.

SHOULD SEE THE SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO AN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH...THE FRONT CAMPS OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST.

STAYED CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE BELOW NORMAL MODEL BLEND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE AS THE AREA WILL BE IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. FINALLY...WILL GO WITH NEAR OR ABOVE BLEND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH IT. AS IT MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HANG AROUND IN
THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER...AND ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY ANY FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL
SO NOTHING GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 714 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL BUT LAF EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
LAF WILL BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AFTER AROUND DAYBREAK TIME FRAME SATURDAY...WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM MIDDAY ONWARD. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
A THREAT...AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL SITES.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT VARIABLE AT FIRST...BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY
AND THEN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE
SUSTAINED AROUND 10-13KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 291906
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN UPPER LOW...OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WILL
GRADUALLY HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY SATURDAY. IT WILL DRY
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS BRING MORE SHOWERS
TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER THAT...LOOK FOR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE ON POPS AS MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON
HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL GET.

MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA BY 12Z SATURDAY. UPPER
WINDS WILL THEN BACK IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
RESULT IN SOUTHERN STATES STATIONARY FRONT RETURNING NORTH TO NEAR A
SIKESTON MISSOURI TO CHATTANOOGA LINE BY 12Z. MODELS ALL SHOWING
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 305K LEVEL NORTH OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH
UPPER IMPULSES EJECTING NORTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ALONG WITH
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND RAPID REFRESH ALL FAVOR THE FASTER 12Z
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...NAM AND GEM OVER THE SLOWER 12Z GFS. THIS
WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST BY DAYBREAK.

INSTABILITY PROGS FAVOR LEAVING THUNDER OUT TONIGHT.

WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA...FAVOR TEMPERATURES AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SIMILAR 12Z MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON RAINFALL TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF WHERE
SOME COULD BE SEVERE.

MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING INTO SOUTHWESTERN
INDIANA LATE SATURDAY. THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING NORTHEAST IN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
MODESTLY INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS OVERSPREADING ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE THE WETTEST PERIOD AS
INDICATED BY THE 12 HOUR QPF ENDING 00Z SUNDAY. MODEL BLEND HAS NEAR
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ON SATURDAY WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER
AN INCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
TOMORROW AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 74. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR
DAY2. THERE IS EVEN A SLIVER OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AN 85 KNOT 250
MILLIBAR JET STREAK WILL MOVE TO THE WABASH VALLEY.

SHOULD SEE THE SHOWER COVERAGE DECREASE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PICKING UP ONCE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS ABSORBED INTO AN EASTERN
CANADA TROUGH...THE FRONT CAMPS OUT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO MID LEVEL DRYING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ENDING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE EAST AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST.

STAYED CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE BELOW NORMAL MODEL BLEND
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
SHOWERS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY
DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE AS THE AREA WILL BE IN NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. FINALLY...WILL GO WITH NEAR OR ABOVE BLEND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THICK CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH IT. AS IT MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HANG AROUND IN
THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER...AND ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY ANY FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL
SO NOTHING GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT KIND SHOULD SCATTER AND RISE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR WITH THOSE AT KLAF LIKELY TO TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SWING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BRINGS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO THE SITES. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFIC TIMING BUT COULD SEE SHOWERS START AS SOON AS AROUND 6Z
BUT MORE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL START AT
KHUF AND KBMG A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT AND AT KIND AND KLAF BY
AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO DROP TO IFR WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF RAIN ONSET. SOME POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
STARTING BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 291846
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
246 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PULLED THE FOG FROM THE GRIDS...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
WEATHER STORY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH IT. AS IT MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HANG AROUND IN
THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER...AND ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY ANY FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL
SO NOTHING GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT KIND SHOULD SCATTER AND RISE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR WITH THOSE AT KLAF LIKELY TO TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SWING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BRINGS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO THE SITES. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFIC TIMING BUT COULD SEE SHOWERS START AS SOON AS AROUND 6Z
BUT MORE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL START AT
KHUF AND KBMG A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT AND AT KIND AND KLAF BY
AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO DROP TO IFR WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF RAIN ONSET. SOME POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
STARTING BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 291846
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
246 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PULLED THE FOG FROM THE GRIDS...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
WEATHER STORY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING WEST AND
THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH INDIANA BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH IT. AS IT MOVES
OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HANG AROUND IN
THE WRAPAROUND OF THE LOW. AT THIS TIME DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE
MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY THROUGH THE LONG TERM SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY THUNDER...AND ASIDE FROM WEDNESDAY ANY FORCING APPEARS MINIMAL
SO NOTHING GREATER THAN SLIGHT CHANCES INCLUDED. TEMPERATURES LOOK
NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S TO LOW 50S
FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT KIND SHOULD SCATTER AND RISE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR WITH THOSE AT KLAF LIKELY TO TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SWING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BRINGS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO THE SITES. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFIC TIMING BUT COULD SEE SHOWERS START AS SOON AS AROUND 6Z
BUT MORE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL START AT
KHUF AND KBMG A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT AND AT KIND AND KLAF BY
AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO DROP TO IFR WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF RAIN ONSET. SOME POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
STARTING BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 291845
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
245 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CLIPPED NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND
GENERATED A BIT MORE PCPN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THAT WAVE IS
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON AND PCPN HAS ENDED. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
HAS HELPED BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WAVES EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OR BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 40 IN NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

STRONG THETA E SURGE SHOWN BY MOST MODELS FOR SATURDAY WITH LARGE
AREA OF PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN
THE SOUTH EARLY TO MID MORNING. INITIAL THETA SURGE MAY GENERATE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL BY MID MORNING BUT BULK OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL ADVANCE INTO THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT SHOULD OVERWHELM
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AS DAY PROGRESSES. WITH ALL MODELS ON BOARD
AND NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING HAVE BUMPED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH END CATEGORICAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY LIKELY IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. ANOTHER COOL AND RAW DAY FOR LATE APRIL
WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST AND STIFF EAST
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT (NOSE OF 1" PWAT
PLUME) AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AROUND A PLAINS
UPPER LOW. ALSO JUST ENOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION SOUTHERN HALF. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHEAR EASTWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSING
ALONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUALITY/FORCING WANES...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK ML DESTABILIZATION NEAR SFC PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPS
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OTHERWISE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MORE DOMINANT EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHING WILL THEN SETTLE IN
FOR NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY) AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFWA UP
TO LOW END MVFR BUT KSBN STILL AT IFR WITH ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE
CIGS SLOWLY RISE WITH WARMING AND WEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
TREND OF HIRES GUIDANCE WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OPTIMISTIC VFR LATER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST APPROACHES.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH
RAIN ONSET EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND
KFWA SO KEPT THESE SITES VFR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DOWN TURN IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 291845
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
245 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE FROM
AROUND 40 NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE CLIPPED NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING AND
GENERATED A BIT MORE PCPN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THAT WAVE IS
EXITING THIS AFTERNOON AND PCPN HAS ENDED. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE
HAS HELPED BREAK UP CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW TONIGHT AND GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN WAVES EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OR BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AS HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 40 IN NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

STRONG THETA E SURGE SHOWN BY MOST MODELS FOR SATURDAY WITH LARGE
AREA OF PCPN MOVING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN IN
THE SOUTH EARLY TO MID MORNING. INITIAL THETA SURGE MAY GENERATE
SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS CENTRAL BY MID MORNING BUT BULK OF
MODERATE RAIN WILL ADVANCE INTO THESE AREAS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT NORTHEAST
MOVEMENT BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ASCENT SHOULD OVERWHELM
THIS LOW LEVEL DRY WEDGE AS DAY PROGRESSES. WITH ALL MODELS ON BOARD
AND NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING HAVE BUMPED POPS FURTHER TO
HIGH END CATEGORICAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SATURDAY LIKELY IN THE
QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE. ANOTHER COOL AND RAW DAY FOR LATE APRIL
WITH HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT BEST AND STIFF EAST
WIND OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT (NOSE OF 1" PWAT
PLUME) AS MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH AROUND A PLAINS
UPPER LOW. ALSO JUST ENOUGH WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOWING UP IN
FCST SOUNDINGS FOR A SLIGHT CHC THUNDER MENTION SOUTHERN HALF. THE
PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL THEN SHEAR EASTWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSING
ALONG ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERALL COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE
QUALITY/FORCING WANES...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM DEVELOP
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK ML DESTABILIZATION NEAR SFC PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE. TEMPS
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OTHERWISE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MORE DOMINANT EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGHING WILL THEN SETTLE IN
FOR NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEST PRECIP
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY) AS A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFWA UP
TO LOW END MVFR BUT KSBN STILL AT IFR WITH ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE
CIGS SLOWLY RISE WITH WARMING AND WEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
TREND OF HIRES GUIDANCE WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OPTIMISTIC VFR LATER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST APPROACHES.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH
RAIN ONSET EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND
KFWA SO KEPT THESE SITES VFR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DOWN TURN IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 291734
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
134 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PULLED THE FOG FROM THE GRIDS...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
WEATHER STORY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THAT REGIONAL SUPERBLEND IS
HINTING AT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT KIND SHOULD SCATTER AND RISE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR WITH THOSE AT KLAF LIKELY TO TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SWING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BRINGS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO THE SITES. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFIC TIMING BUT COULD SEE SHOWERS START AS SOON AS AROUND 6Z
BUT MORE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL START AT
KHUF AND KBMG A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT AND AT KIND AND KLAF BY
AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO DROP TO IFR WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF RAIN ONSET. SOME POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
STARTING BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 291734
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
134 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PULLED THE FOG FROM THE GRIDS...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
WEATHER STORY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THAT REGIONAL SUPERBLEND IS
HINTING AT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 291800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORK THEIR WAY NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS AT KIND SHOULD SCATTER AND RISE IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOUR WITH THOSE AT KLAF LIKELY TO TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER. AFTER THAT SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS LAST UNTIL LOW
PRESSURE STARTS TO SWING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND BRINGS
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO THE SITES. MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFIC TIMING BUT COULD SEE SHOWERS START AS SOON AS AROUND 6Z
BUT MORE CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL START AT
KHUF AND KBMG A FEW HOURS AFTER THAT AND AT KIND AND KLAF BY
AROUND 12Z. CEILINGS ARE PROBABLY GOING TO DROP TO IFR WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF RAIN ONSET. SOME POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
STARTING BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 291723
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 60S TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL INVOLVE 1) AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPS TODAY 2) TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS AND PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD GIVEN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER TRENDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE WITH
NOTED NORTHWARD PROGRESS. FAR SW AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS NORTHWARD
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FILLING UPPER LOW. UPDATE TO SKY COVER MAY
BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY FOR NOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED (AT
LEAST FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) AS BAND OF RADAR RETURNS
WORKING NORTHEAST SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE
ONLY A FEW HOURS TO DEAL WITH IT SO WILL ATTEMPT TO ADD SOME TIMING
TO THE AREA.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...  ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE CLOUDS
HOLDING ON STRONG. GIVEN NEAR TERM TRENDS...WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARMER AIR TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER COLD DAY BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WILL BE IN STORE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OVERNIGHT...STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF TEXAS INTO NE KANSAS BY 12Z SAT. NAM
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR SW/S AREAS
TOWARDS 12Z WITH ECMWF/GFS MUCH SLOWER (INTO LONG TERM PERIOD).
AFTER IN HOUSE DISCUSSION AND GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH IN THE 9 TO
12Z WINDOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN UNSETTLED AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ALLOWS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS PROBABLE BY
AFTERNOON...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE
DUE TO EMERGENCE OF MAIN UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ABOVE FACTORS STILL SUPPORT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WITH PRECIP. WARMEST MINS CLOSE
TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE A LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED.

LULL IN GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER.
WITH WEAK FORCING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTHS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST IS OF RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FINER
DETAILS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES MORE SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD ACCOMPANY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST CHANCE POPS DUE
TO ABOVE UNCERTAINTY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THIS UPPER VORT MAX DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
COOLER LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE BUT
BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN RESOLVING
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND THUS HAVE TRIED TO KEEP PERIODS
OF MENTIONABLE POPS TO A MINIMUM. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH BEST
CHANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME TIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME WHERE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMP
FORECAST DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT POST-TUESDAY WITH DEPENDENCE OF
STRENGTH OF THERMAL ADVECTION ON SHORT WAVE TRACK/INTENSITY...BUT
OVERALL...PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFWA UP
TO LOW END MVFR BUT KSBN STILL AT IFR WITH ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE
CIGS SLOWLY RISE WITH WARMING AND WEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
TREND OF HIRES GUIDANCE WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OPTIMISTIC VFR LATER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST APPROACHES.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH
RAIN ONSET EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND
KFWA SO KEPT THESE SITES VFR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DOWN TURN IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 291723
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN
ONE HALF AND ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE
MIDDLE 60S TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL INVOLVE 1) AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPS TODAY 2) TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS AND PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD GIVEN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER TRENDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE WITH
NOTED NORTHWARD PROGRESS. FAR SW AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS NORTHWARD
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FILLING UPPER LOW. UPDATE TO SKY COVER MAY
BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY FOR NOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED (AT
LEAST FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) AS BAND OF RADAR RETURNS
WORKING NORTHEAST SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE
ONLY A FEW HOURS TO DEAL WITH IT SO WILL ATTEMPT TO ADD SOME TIMING
TO THE AREA.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...  ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE CLOUDS
HOLDING ON STRONG. GIVEN NEAR TERM TRENDS...WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARMER AIR TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER COLD DAY BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WILL BE IN STORE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OVERNIGHT...STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF TEXAS INTO NE KANSAS BY 12Z SAT. NAM
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR SW/S AREAS
TOWARDS 12Z WITH ECMWF/GFS MUCH SLOWER (INTO LONG TERM PERIOD).
AFTER IN HOUSE DISCUSSION AND GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH IN THE 9 TO
12Z WINDOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN UNSETTLED AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ALLOWS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS PROBABLE BY
AFTERNOON...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE
DUE TO EMERGENCE OF MAIN UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ABOVE FACTORS STILL SUPPORT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WITH PRECIP. WARMEST MINS CLOSE
TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE A LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED.

LULL IN GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER.
WITH WEAK FORCING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTHS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST IS OF RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FINER
DETAILS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES MORE SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD ACCOMPANY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST CHANCE POPS DUE
TO ABOVE UNCERTAINTY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THIS UPPER VORT MAX DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
COOLER LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE BUT
BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN RESOLVING
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND THUS HAVE TRIED TO KEEP PERIODS
OF MENTIONABLE POPS TO A MINIMUM. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH BEST
CHANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME TIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME WHERE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMP
FORECAST DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT POST-TUESDAY WITH DEPENDENCE OF
STRENGTH OF THERMAL ADVECTION ON SHORT WAVE TRACK/INTENSITY...BUT
OVERALL...PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CONDITIONS WERE SLOWLY IMPROVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH KFWA UP
TO LOW END MVFR BUT KSBN STILL AT IFR WITH ISSUANCE. SHOULD SEE
CIGS SLOWLY RISE WITH WARMING AND WEAK MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT
TREND OF HIRES GUIDANCE WITH MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OPTIMISTIC VFR LATER THIS EVENING. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE AS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST APPROACHES.
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH ON SATURDAY BUT LOWER CIGS AND VIS WITH
RAIN ONSET EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO OR JUST AFTER 18Z AT KSBN AND
KFWA SO KEPT THESE SITES VFR. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DOWN TURN IN
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SAT AFTERNOON WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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000
FXUS63 KIND 291433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PULLED THE FOG FROM THE GRIDS...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
WEATHER STORY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THAT REGIONAL SUPERBLEND IS
HINTING AT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/15Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A FRONT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA IS BRINGING MVFR CLOUD
DECKS WITH IT. THEY HAVE JUST MOVED INTO KIND AND SHOULD ARRIVE AT
KHUF SHORTLY. UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY WILL SPREAD SO MAY ADD A
SCATTERED DECK AT KBMG FOR NOW AND KEEP THEM VFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ALSO LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHETHER THE MVFR DECKS COULD
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
/NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE VEERING IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD START IMPACTING TAF
SITES BETWEEN SAT 06-09Z WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SAT 12Z. ANTICIPATE MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS DURING
INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...DETERIORATING QUICKLY BY SAT 15Z.
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...INCREASING TO 12 KTS BETWEEN SAT 06-09Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/MK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 291351
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
951 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 951 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PULLED THE FOG FROM THE GRIDS...HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND
WEATHER STORY. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THAT REGIONAL SUPERBLEND IS
HINTING AT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PERSISTENT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING AT
KLAF...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY
AT KLAF BY FRI 15Z THOUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
START IMPACTING TAF SITES BETWEEN SAT 06-09Z WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SAT 12Z. ANTICIPATE
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS DURING INITIAL ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...DETERIORATING QUICKLY BY SAT 15Z. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...INCREASING TO
12 KTS BETWEEN SAT 06-09Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 291146
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
746 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THAT REGIONAL SUPERBLEND IS
HINTING AT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/12Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

PERSISTENT LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING AT
KLAF...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY
AT KLAF BY FRI 15Z THOUGH. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
START IMPACTING TAF SITES BETWEEN SAT 06-09Z WITH WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER SAT 12Z. ANTICIPATE
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS DURING INITIAL ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION...DETERIORATING QUICKLY BY SAT 15Z. WINDS WILL VEER
TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...INCREASING TO
12 KTS BETWEEN SAT 06-09Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 290938
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
538 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY FILL BACK IN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY NORTH WITH RAIN ARRIVING MAINLY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL INVOLVE 1) AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPS TODAY 2) TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS AND PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD GIVEN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER TRENDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE WITH
NOTED NORTHWARD PROGRESS. FAR SW AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS NORTHWARD
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FILLING UPPER LOW. UPDATE TO SKY COVER MAY
BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY FOR NOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED (AT
LEAST FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) AS BAND OF RADAR RETURNS
WORKING NORTHEAST SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE
ONLY A FEW HOURS TO DEAL WITH IT SO WILL ATTEMPT TO ADD SOME TIMING
TO THE AREA.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...  ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE CLOUDS
HOLDING ON STRONG. GIVEN NEAR TERM TRENDS...WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARMER AIR TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER COLD DAY BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WILL BE IN STORE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OVERNIGHT...STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF TEXAS INTO NE KANSAS BY 12Z SAT. NAM
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR SW/S AREAS
TOWARDS 12Z WITH ECMWF/GFS MUCH SLOWER (INTO LONG TERM PERIOD).
AFTER IN HOUSE DISCUSSION AND GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH IN THE 9 TO
12Z WINDOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN UNSETTLED AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ALLOWS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS PROBABLE BY
AFTERNOON...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE
DUE TO EMERGENCE OF MAIN UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ABOVE FACTORS STILL SUPPORT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WITH PRECIP. WARMEST MINS CLOSE
TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE A LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED.

LULL IN GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER.
WITH WEAK FORCING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTHS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST IS OF RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FINER
DETAILS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES MORE SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD ACCOMPANY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST CHANCE POPS DUE
TO ABOVE UNCERTAINTY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THIS UPPER VORT MAX DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
COOLER LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE BUT
BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN RESOLVING
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND THUS HAVE TRIED TO KEEP PERIODS
OF MENTIONABLE POPS TO A MINIMUM. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH BEST
CHANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME TIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME WHERE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMP
FORECAST DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT POST-TUESDAY WITH DEPENDENCE OF
STRENGTH OF THERMAL ADVECTION ON SHORT WAVE TRACK/INTENSITY...BUT
OVERALL...PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AREA OF VFR CIGS MOVED INTO KFWA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BUT HAS SINCE
RETURNED TO MVFR. MVFR CIGS HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
KSBN. AREA OF CLEARING HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO WORK NORTHEAST AS
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BATTLES WITH THE CLEARING. MODELS STILL
SLOWLY RAISE CIG HEIGHTS TO VFR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
BUT KEEP THINGS BKN TO OVC. WILL TREND UPWARDS SOME WITH PERSISTENCE
IN MODELS. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE AREA BUT NOT UNTIL OUTSIDE THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290901
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
501 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THAT REGIONAL SUPERBLEND IS
HINTING AT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT LAF/IND AND PERHAPS AT
HUF/BMG.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
POTENTIAL MOVEMENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF A BIT. WILL TAKE LAF DOWN TO
IFR BORDERLINE AND IND DOWN TO 1500 FEET. HUF/BMG MAY ONLY BRIEFLY
BE MVFR IF AT ALL.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME AT SEVERAL SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 290901
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
501 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THAT REGIONAL SUPERBLEND IS
HINTING AT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/09Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT LAF/IND AND PERHAPS AT
HUF/BMG.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
POTENTIAL MOVEMENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF A BIT. WILL TAKE LAF DOWN TO
IFR BORDERLINE AND IND DOWN TO 1500 FEET. HUF/BMG MAY ONLY BRIEFLY
BE MVFR IF AT ALL.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME AT SEVERAL SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD/TDUD




000
FXUS63 KIND 290750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 349 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN MODELS...SO WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THAT REGIONAL SUPERBLEND IS
HINTING AT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT LAF/IND AND PERHAPS AT
HUF/BMG.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
POTENTIAL MOVEMENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF A BIT. WILL TAKE LAF DOWN TO
IFR BORDERLINE AND IND DOWN TO 1500 FEET. HUF/BMG MAY ONLY BRIEFLY
BE MVFR IF AT ALL.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME AT SEVERAL SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 290746
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRY WEATHER
TODAY.   AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
QUITE WET.

SHOWERS MAY LET UP A LITTLE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUR WAY BY LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN.  AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS THEN ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA.  SATELLITE SHOWS LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

MODELS INDICATE QUIET AND DRY WEATHER TODAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  WILL CONTINUE CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND AND ALTHOUGH THE AREA HAS RETREATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST
...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLOUDS WILL SPREAD BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
A LITTLE LATER THIS MORNING AS WE WILL BE UNDER A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW.
WILL GO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH.  THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS INDICATE MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH WHICH WAS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS THIS EVENING
AND ACROSS THE REST OF OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
SHOWS ALL AREAS BECOMING WET OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE SLOWER GFS AND
GEMNH MODELS AS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS MAY ONLY SEE HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUITE WET AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.   MOST MODELS INDICATE SHOWERS MAY LESSEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST SECTIONS WILL BE UNDER A COOL NORTHEAST FLOW AS THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS
SHOULD LESSEN THE THREAT FOR THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH.  WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER MOST AREAS BY LATE SATURDAY AND THEN MAINLY SOUTH HALF SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS 2ND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MINS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL SOME AREAS  AND
THE SOUTH MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO COOL FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY.  OTHERWISE...STAYED
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT LAF/IND AND PERHAPS AT
HUF/BMG.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
POTENTIAL MOVEMENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF A BIT. WILL TAKE LAF DOWN TO
IFR BORDERLINE AND IND DOWN TO 1500 FEET. HUF/BMG MAY ONLY BRIEFLY
BE MVFR IF AT ALL.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME AT SEVERAL SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 290744
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
344 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD SOUTH OF
ROUTE 30. CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY FILL BACK IN TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY NORTH WITH RAIN ARRIVING MAINLY DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 50S IN FAR
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S TOWARDS CENTRAL INDIANA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL INVOLVE 1) AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT
TEMPS TODAY 2) TIMING OF LIGHT RAIN INTO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS LATER
TONIGHT

THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY...SOUNDINGS AND PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CLOUDS WILL HOLD GIVEN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. HOWEVER TRENDS
ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA SHOW CLEARING TAKING PLACE WITH
NOTED NORTHWARD PROGRESS. FAR SW AREAS MAY SEE SOME CLEARING TOWARDS
SUNRISE BUT NOT CONVINCED IT WILL MAKE A LOT OF PROGRESS NORTHWARD
GIVEN PROXIMITY OF FILLING UPPER LOW. UPDATE TO SKY COVER MAY
BENEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS BUT WILL STICK WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
TOCLOUDY FOR NOW. PRECIP CHANCES WILL NEED TO BE INTRODUCED (AT
LEAST FOR SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS) AS BAND OF RADAR RETURNS
WORKING NORTHEAST SHOWING SIGNS OF REACHING THE GROUND. LOOKS LIKE
ONLY A FEW HOURS TO DEAL WITH IT SO WILL ATTEMPT TO ADD SOME TIMING
TO THE AREA.

TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...  ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS THE CLOUDS
HOLDING ON STRONG. GIVEN NEAR TERM TRENDS...WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS TRENDING TOWARDS MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WITH THE WARMER AIR TRAPPED TO THE
SOUTH...ANOTHER COLD DAY BY LATE APRIL STANDARDS WILL BE IN STORE
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

OVERNIGHT...STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT HAS RESIDED SOUTH OF THE AREA
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO EDGE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY OUT OF TEXAS INTO NE KANSAS BY 12Z SAT. NAM
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIGHT RAIN STARTING TO MOVE INTO FAR SW/S AREAS
TOWARDS 12Z WITH ECMWF/GFS MUCH SLOWER (INTO LONG TERM PERIOD).
AFTER IN HOUSE DISCUSSION AND GENERAL CONSENSUS OF MOST SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE INTRODUCE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS IN FAR SOUTH IN THE 9 TO
12Z WINDOW FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM PERIOD TO BEGIN UNSETTLED AS A 40-50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
ALLOWS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS PROBABLE BY
AFTERNOON...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT TIMING OF
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING
WITH SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW VORT MAX MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW/MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENETIC IN NATURE
DUE TO EMERGENCE OF MAIN UPPER PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SATURDAY AND NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE ABOVE FACTORS STILL SUPPORT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH
EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW AND
INITIAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING EFFECTS WITH PRECIP. WARMEST MINS CLOSE
TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH/NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE A LATER PRECIP ARRIVAL IS EXPECTED.

LULL IN GREATER RAIN COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS LEAD SHORT WAVE DAMPENS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER.
WITH WEAK FORCING PERSISTING OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISHING MOISTURE
DEPTHS SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST IS OF RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FINER
DETAILS REGARDING EVOLUTION OF WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AS IT BECOMES MORE SHEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE DEPTH SHOULD ACCOMPANY EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WITH A POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING LOW/MID
LEVEL FGEN FORCING ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BEST
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY JUST CHANCE POPS DUE
TO ABOVE UNCERTAINTY.

MONDAY SHOULD BE QUIET AS THIS UPPER VORT MAX DEPARTS TO THE EAST.
COOLER LEVEL TEMPS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS FEATURE BUT
BETTER INSOLATION ON MONDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT IN RESOLVING
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES DROPPING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND THUS HAVE TRIED TO KEEP PERIODS
OF MENTIONABLE POPS TO A MINIMUM. IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH BEST
CHANCE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE SOME TIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME WHERE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS. CONFIDENCE IN TEMP
FORECAST DOES DECREASE SOMEWHAT POST-TUESDAY WITH DEPENDENCE OF
STRENGTH OF THERMAL ADVECTION ON SHORT WAVE TRACK/INTENSITY...BUT
OVERALL...PERIOD SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE) TO SCOUR OUT TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IF ANY BREAKS OR CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. WILL BE INTRODUCING AT LEAST SOME REDUCTION IN VSBY AT
KSBN GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS OF 3 TO 5 SM IN BR AND CONTINUE WITH
SIMILAR TAFS AT KFWA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290450
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING AS A COOL EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ON THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN TO THE MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FILLING MID LVL SYSTEM OVER SERN MN TO BEGIN EWD ACCELERATION WITH
PROMPT OF TWO STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MINOR AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN MI FRIDAY
MORNING. SUBTLE DCVA PRESSING INTO NWRN/WCNTL IN AT THIS TIME MAY
AFFORD A FEW REDEVELOPING SHRA THIS EVENING...ESPCLY ACROSS SRN CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MINOR INSTABILITY POOL CNTL/SERN IN. DEPTH OF
COLD AIR ACRS CWA TOO GREAT TO AFFORD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHALLOW/BRIEF SHRA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SIDE OF
OCCLUSAL TO LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT MID LVL VORTICITY AND PERHAPS WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF EXTNDG
WEST OF FILLING UPPER OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING/DAYBREAK LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND DISPARATE COLOCATION PRECLUDES LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF MENTION HERE AND TOKEN LOW POPS ACRS NRN TIER. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIDDAY/AFTN INSOLATION FRI WITH SURFACE
TEMPS MODERATING INTO UPPER 50S/LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN DAMPEN EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY
IN TANDEM WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADV/CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND FORCING WANES WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO LINGERING BLOCKY/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
KEEP SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SFC REFLECTION SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN MORE COOL/RAW EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN NOAM REX BLOCK/WESTERN CANADA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
NW FLOW/TROUGHING LOCALLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BY
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE RETURN/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO PIVOT THROUGH SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WILL CONTINUE WITH PERSISTENT STRATUS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT (BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE) TO SCOUR OUT TRAPPED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IF ANY BREAKS OR CLEARING OCCURS...IT WOULD BE LATE
MORNING FRIDAY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. WILL BE INTRODUCING AT LEAST SOME REDUCTION IN VSBY AT
KSBN GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS OF 3 TO 5 SM IN BR AND CONTINUE WITH
SIMILAR TAFS AT KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY/FISHER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


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000
FXUS63 KIND 290449
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1249 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SURFACE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SHOW SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED LIFT OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS.

QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH LOW CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA
WILL GET TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1244 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT LAF/IND AND PERHAPS AT
HUF/BMG.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN. SOME QUESTION AS TO
POTENTIAL MOVEMENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO BACK OFF A BIT. WILL TAKE LAF DOWN TO
IFR BORDERLINE AND IND DOWN TO 1500 FEET. HUF/BMG MAY ONLY BRIEFLY
BE MVFR IF AT ALL.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
LIKELY BE VARIABLE MUCH OF THE TIME AT SEVERAL SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 290114
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SURFACE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SHOW SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED LIFT OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS.

QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH LOW CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA
WILL GET TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW EARLY THINGS WILL
DETERIORATE AND HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. WILL TAKE IND/HUF/BMG TO MVFR
AND LAF TO IFR AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 290114
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
913 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 913 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SURFACE TROUGHING EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT. SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SHOW SOME WEAK DISORGANIZED LIFT OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY...SO
WILL KEEP IN SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS FOR LIGHT SHOWERS.

QUESTIONABLE HOW FAR SOUTH LOW CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA
WILL GET TONIGHT...BUT APPEARS MOST OF THE LOW CLOUD COVER WILL RESIDE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW EARLY THINGS WILL
DETERIORATE AND HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. WILL TAKE IND/HUF/BMG TO MVFR
AND LAF TO IFR AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA/JAS
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 290036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
836 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FILLING MID LVL SYSTEM OVER SERN MN TO BEGIN EWD ACCELERATION WITH
PROMPT OF TWO STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MINOR AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN MI FRIDAY
MORNING. SUBTLE DCVA PRESSING INTO NWRN/WCNTL IN AT THIS TIME MAY
AFFORD A FEW REDEVELOPING SHRA THIS EVENING...ESPCLY ACROSS SRN CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MINOR INSTABILITY POOL CNTL/SERN IN. DEPTH OF
COLD AIR ACRS CWA TOO GREAT TO AFFORD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHALLOW/BRIEF SHRA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SIDE OF
OCCLUSAL TO LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT MID LVL VORTICITY AND PERHAPS WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF EXTNDG
WEST OF FILLING UPPER OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING/DAYBREAK LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND DISPARATE COLOCATION PRECLUDES LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF MENTION HERE AND TOKEN LOW POPS ACRS NRN TIER. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIDDAY/AFTN INSOLATION FRI WITH SURFACE
TEMPS MODERATING INTO UPPER 50S/LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN DAMPEN EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY
IN TANDEM WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADV/CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND FORCING WANES WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO LINGERING BLOCKY/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
KEEP SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SFC REFLECTION SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN MORE COOL/RAW EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN NOAM REX BLOCK/WESTERN CANADA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
NW FLOW/TROUGHING LOCALLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BY
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE RETURN/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO PIVOT THROUGH SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LL MSTR TRAPPED BENEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WILL AIDE IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW STRATUS THIS PD. PREVAILING MVFR CONDS XPCD
ALTHOUGH SOME DECAY IN CIG HGTS XPCD TO OCCUR LT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION W/NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE. OTRWS HIGHLY CONDL CHC FOR A
PD OF LIFR TWD DAYBREAK AS WHATS LEFTOVR OF YDA PLAINS CYCLONE
SHEARS EWD ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 290036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
836 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FILLING MID LVL SYSTEM OVER SERN MN TO BEGIN EWD ACCELERATION WITH
PROMPT OF TWO STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MINOR AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN MI FRIDAY
MORNING. SUBTLE DCVA PRESSING INTO NWRN/WCNTL IN AT THIS TIME MAY
AFFORD A FEW REDEVELOPING SHRA THIS EVENING...ESPCLY ACROSS SRN CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MINOR INSTABILITY POOL CNTL/SERN IN. DEPTH OF
COLD AIR ACRS CWA TOO GREAT TO AFFORD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHALLOW/BRIEF SHRA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SIDE OF
OCCLUSAL TO LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT MID LVL VORTICITY AND PERHAPS WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF EXTNDG
WEST OF FILLING UPPER OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING/DAYBREAK LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND DISPARATE COLOCATION PRECLUDES LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF MENTION HERE AND TOKEN LOW POPS ACRS NRN TIER. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIDDAY/AFTN INSOLATION FRI WITH SURFACE
TEMPS MODERATING INTO UPPER 50S/LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN DAMPEN EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY
IN TANDEM WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADV/CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND FORCING WANES WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO LINGERING BLOCKY/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
KEEP SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SFC REFLECTION SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN MORE COOL/RAW EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN NOAM REX BLOCK/WESTERN CANADA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
NW FLOW/TROUGHING LOCALLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BY
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE RETURN/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO PIVOT THROUGH SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

LL MSTR TRAPPED BENEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WILL AIDE IN
PERSISTENCE OF LOW STRATUS THIS PD. PREVAILING MVFR CONDS XPCD
ALTHOUGH SOME DECAY IN CIG HGTS XPCD TO OCCUR LT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION W/NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE. OTRWS HIGHLY CONDL CHC FOR A
PD OF LIFR TWD DAYBREAK AS WHATS LEFTOVR OF YDA PLAINS CYCLONE
SHEARS EWD ACRS THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 282302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 29/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR INITIALLY APPEARS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO MVFR OR WORSE
RESTRICTIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

BOUNDARY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD. EXPECT RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE QUESTION BEING HOW LOW THINGS WILL GET.

LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON HOW EARLY THINGS WILL
DETERIORATE AND HOW LOW THEY WILL GO. WILL TAKE IND/HUF/BMG TO MVFR
AND LAF TO IFR AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHERLY NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND WESTERLY
SOUTH. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO WELL BELOW 10KT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 282036
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED OUT OF THE KIND VICINITY...SO WILL REMOVE
FROM THE FORECAST.

WILL ALSO ADD SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING DURING THAT TIME OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RADAR
TRENDS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...MOVING A LITTLE BIT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SINKING
SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH IFR AND WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL END UP...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE KLAF
WILL HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS...KIND
DROPPING TO IFR OR LOWER...AND KHUF AND KBMG BEING ON THE EDGE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BY MID MORNING
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIWX 281942
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES...THERE IS JUST A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE MID 60S INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FILLING MID LVL SYSTEM OVER SERN MN TO BEGIN EWD ACCELERATION WITH
PROMPT OF TWO STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEMS IN SPLIT FLOW PATTERN.
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MINOR AS IT MOVES THROUGH SRN MI FRIDAY
MORNING. SUBTLE DCVA PRESSING INTO NWRN/WCNTL IN AT THIS TIME MAY
AFFORD A FEW REDEVELOPING SHRA THIS EVENING...ESPCLY ACROSS SRN CWA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MINOR INSTABILITY POOL CNTL/SERN IN. DEPTH OF
COLD AIR ACRS CWA TOO GREAT TO AFFORD ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SHALLOW/BRIEF SHRA. ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN COLD SIDE OF
OCCLUSAL TO LIKELY MAINTAIN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO FRI AM...WITH
SOME LOWERING OF CEILINGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND SOME MINOR CONCERN
THAT MID LVL VORTICITY AND PERHAPS WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF EXTNDG
WEST OF FILLING UPPER OHIO VALLEY SURFACE LOW COULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME EARLY MORNING/DAYBREAK LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE AND DISPARATE COLOCATION PRECLUDES LITTLE MORE THAN
BRIEF MENTION HERE AND TOKEN LOW POPS ACRS NRN TIER. RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH ANTICIPATED THICK CLOUD COVER.
INCREASED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MIDDAY/AFTN INSOLATION FRI WITH SURFACE
TEMPS MODERATING INTO UPPER 50S/LWR 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER LOW WILL EJECT NE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN DAMPEN EAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY
IN TANDEM WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WORKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A BAND OF RAIN WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE AS STRONG MID LEVEL THETA-E ADV/CONVERGENCE
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF WAVE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS MOISTURE PROFILES
BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND FORCING WANES WITH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING INTO LINGERING BLOCKY/CONFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PROCESS WILL UNFORTUNATELY
KEEP SYSTEM WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF WEAK SFC REFLECTION SOUTH
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...RESULTING IN MORE COOL/RAW EASTERLY FLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND.

WESTERN NOAM REX BLOCK/WESTERN CANADA POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO MORE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED
NW FLOW/TROUGHING LOCALLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH TIMING OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW BY
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY. OPTED FOR LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS DURING
THIS TIME GIVEN LACKING MOISTURE RETURN/MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL LIKELY REBOUND A LITTLE MONDAY-TUESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MODELED TO PIVOT THROUGH SOMETIME LATER
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TO ALLOW LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. CIGS LIKELY
TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR LIFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK AS SATURATION
LEVELS DEEPEN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL DZ/BR DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED AS
MIDLVL VORTEX /CURRENTLY STAGNATED OVER IA/MN BORDER/ SHIFTS EWD
INTO SRN LAKE MI/SRN MI TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 281900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING DURING THAT TIME OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RADAR
TRENDS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...MOVING A LITTLE BIT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SINKING
SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH IFR AND WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL END UP...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE KLAF
WILL HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS...KIND
DROPPING TO IFR OR LOWER...AND KHUF AND KBMG BEING ON THE EDGE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BY MID MORNING
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 281900
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEEKEND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO KENTUCKY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND PUSH THE WARM FRONT BACK NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BACK TO THE FORECAST.

YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AND ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...BRINGING YET
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHER CENTRAL INDIANA...LINGERING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
STRETCHES FROM EASTERN IOWA TO SOUTHERN OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.
RADAR SHOWS THAT SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...ALONG AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS HRRR SEEMS A BIT OVER AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE OVERALL
TREND APPEARS IN PLACE WITH SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
PRECIP DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MID
LEVEL CAPPING BUILDING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE RATHER LIGHT...WILL TRY AND HAVE MINIMAL POPS TO NO POPS. THUS
WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON FRIDAY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH A GOOD MID LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THUS WILL TREND
TOWARD A PARTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH LIGHT N-NW FLOW IN
PLACE...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE REACHED. THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD A BLEND ON LOWS.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN
OVERRUNNING PATTERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
ARRIVE AFTER 12Z SAT. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD CLOUD SKY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ALONG WITH LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

BETTER FORCING ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH TOWARD INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 305K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS EXCELLENT UPGLIDE ON SATURDAY WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER
5 G/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEPLY SATURATED COLUMN BY
18Z. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD HIGH POPS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN MAVMOS GIVEN EXPECTED RAIN.

ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE LOOK POISED TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO USE
POPS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS AND TREND HIGHS COOLER AND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING DURING THAT TIME OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RADAR
TRENDS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...MOVING A LITTLE BIT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SINKING
SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH IFR AND WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL END UP...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE KLAF
WILL HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS...KIND
DROPPING TO IFR OR LOWER...AND KHUF AND KBMG BEING ON THE EDGE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BY MID MORNING
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 281829
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
229 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY...BUT WET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OHIO THAT
HAS JUST EXITED CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS FOUND ACROSS IOWA. COOL NE
FLOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE WARMER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...SHOWING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVER 1200 J/KG OF CAPE...BEFORE MID
LEVEL CAPPING ARRIVES BY 00Z. FURTHERMORE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY AND BROADLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BUT THEN BEGIN RAMPING UP POPS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE OHIO VALLEY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE REMNANT SURFACE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG BACK AS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT PERSISTING AS AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL NOT MIX OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO
MIDDAY AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WILL START OUT THESE AREAS MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO A FASTER ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL ALIGN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A DRY
EVENING FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AS A 45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS...ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING AND MAKING FOR A VERY WET AND COOL SATURDAY. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AS
TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A RAW EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT SUPPORTS GOING COOLER FOR SATURDAY...AND HAVE DROPPED
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT MAY
NEED TO DROP TEMPS EVEN FURTHER AS THE SIGNS ARE THERE FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AS THE LONG TERM BEGINS A FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA AND AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. COULD SEE SOME RAIN
SHOWERS HANGING AROUND GIVEN THIS. WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AFTER THAT AND SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DISAGREE ON INSTABILITY WITH THAT SYSTEM SO
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING DURING THAT TIME OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RADAR
TRENDS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...MOVING A LITTLE BIT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SINKING
SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH IFR AND WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL END UP...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE KLAF
WILL HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS...KIND
DROPPING TO IFR OR LOWER...AND KHUF AND KBMG BEING ON THE EDGE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BY MID MORNING
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 281747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
147 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
RE-DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
TO ALLOW LOW CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PD. CIGS LIKELY
TO LOWER LATE TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
LOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR LIFR CIGS NEAR DAYBREAK AS SATURATION
LEVELS DEEPEN ALONG WITH POTENTIAL DZ/BR DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED
AS MIDLVL VORTEX /CURRENTLY STAGNATED OVER IA/MN BORDER/
SHIFTS EWD INTO SRN LAKE MI/SRN MI TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOGSDON
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 281717
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
117 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY...BUT WET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OHIO THAT
HAS JUST EXITED CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS FOUND ACROSS IOWA. COOL NE
FLOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE WARMER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...SHOWING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVER 1200 J/KG OF CAPE...BEFORE MID
LEVEL CAPPING ARRIVES BY 00Z. FURTHERMORE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY AND BROADLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BUT THEN BEGIN RAMPING UP POPS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE OHIO VALLEY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE REMNANT SURFACE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG BACK AS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT PERSISTING AS AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL NOT MIX OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO
MIDDAY AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WILL START OUT THESE AREAS MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO A FASTER ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL ALIGN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A DRY
EVENING FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AS A 45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS...ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING AND MAKING FOR A VERY WET AND COOL SATURDAY. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AS
TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A RAW EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT SUPPORTS GOING COOLER FOR SATURDAY...AND HAVE DROPPED
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT MAY
NEED TO DROP TEMPS EVEN FURTHER AS THE SIGNS ARE THERE FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED
FOR MOST ITEMS.

ONE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SETUP WITH
EACH RUN...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING DURING THAT TIME OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THAT SAID THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE SITES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...FORECAST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RADAR
TRENDS. A FRONT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY OVER THE
AREA...MOVING A LITTLE BIT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SINKING
SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH IFR AND WORSE
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL END UP...BUT AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE KLAF
WILL HAVE THE WORST CONDITIONS WITH LIFR OR LOWER CEILINGS...KIND
DROPPING TO IFR OR LOWER...AND KHUF AND KBMG BEING ON THE EDGE AND
POSSIBLY SOUTH OF LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. BY MID MORNING
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 281607
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
RE-DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AFFECTING
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT TERMINALS
APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAKENING INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. A BRIEF LULL IN GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE MAY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING FORCING
FROM UPSTREAM VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON AND SHARPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK SFC REFLECTION
BEGINS TO DEPART ACROSS OHIO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOGSDON
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 281607
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
RE-DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
A SHOWER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AFFECTING
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT TERMINALS
APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAKENING INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. A BRIEF LULL IN GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE MAY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING FORCING
FROM UPSTREAM VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON AND SHARPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK SFC REFLECTION
BEGINS TO DEPART ACROSS OHIO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOGSDON
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 281420
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY...BUT WET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OHIO THAT
HAS JUST EXITED CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS FOUND ACROSS IOWA. COOL NE
FLOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE WARMER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...SHOWING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVER 1200 J/KG OF CAPE...BEFORE MID
LEVEL CAPPING ARRIVES BY 00Z. FURTHERMORE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY AND BROADLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BUT THEN BEGIN RAMPING UP POPS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE OHIO VALLEY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE REMNANT SURFACE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG BACK AS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT PERSISTING AS AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL NOT MIX OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO
MIDDAY AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WILL START OUT THESE AREAS MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO A FASTER ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL ALIGN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A DRY
EVENING FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AS A 45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS...ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING AND MAKING FOR A VERY WET AND COOL SATURDAY. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AS
TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A RAW EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT SUPPORTS GOING COOLER FOR SATURDAY...AND HAVE DROPPED
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT MAY
NEED TO DROP TEMPS EVEN FURTHER AS THE SIGNS ARE THERE FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED
FOR MOST ITEMS.

ONE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SETUP WITH
EACH RUN...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER
MATCH OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. CEILINGS CHANGE FROM IFR TO VFR WITHIN SHORT
DISTANCES...AND THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PLAYED THINGS PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT IFR AROUND FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY RAISING CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH.

CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SITES BY VALID TIME...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY. HOWEVER...AT THE MOMENT
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 281420
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY...BUT WET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OHIO THAT
HAS JUST EXITED CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS FOUND ACROSS IOWA. COOL NE
FLOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE WARMER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...SHOWING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVER 1200 J/KG OF CAPE...BEFORE MID
LEVEL CAPPING ARRIVES BY 00Z. FURTHERMORE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY AND BROADLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BUT THEN BEGIN RAMPING UP POPS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE OHIO VALLEY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE REMNANT SURFACE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG BACK AS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT PERSISTING AS AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL NOT MIX OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO
MIDDAY AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WILL START OUT THESE AREAS MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO A FASTER ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL ALIGN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A DRY
EVENING FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AS A 45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS...ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING AND MAKING FOR A VERY WET AND COOL SATURDAY. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AS
TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A RAW EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT SUPPORTS GOING COOLER FOR SATURDAY...AND HAVE DROPPED
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT MAY
NEED TO DROP TEMPS EVEN FURTHER AS THE SIGNS ARE THERE FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED
FOR MOST ITEMS.

ONE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SETUP WITH
EACH RUN...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A RELATIVELY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA. UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO BETTER
MATCH OBS AND SATELLITE LOOP. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. CEILINGS CHANGE FROM IFR TO VFR WITHIN SHORT
DISTANCES...AND THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PLAYED THINGS PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT IFR AROUND FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY RAISING CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH.

CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SITES BY VALID TIME...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY. HOWEVER...AT THE MOMENT
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 281352
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY...BUT WET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OHIO THAT
HAS JUST EXITED CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS FOUND ACROSS IOWA. COOL NE
FLOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE WARMER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...SHOWING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVER 1200 J/KG OF CAPE...BEFORE MID
LEVEL CAPPING ARRIVES BY 00Z. FURTHERMORE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY AND BROADLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BUT THEN BEGIN RAMPING UP POPS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE OHIO VALLEY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE REMNANT SURFACE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG BACK AS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT PERSISTING AS AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL NOT MIX OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO
MIDDAY AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WILL START OUT THESE AREAS MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO A FASTER ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL ALIGN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A DRY
EVENING FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AS A 45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS...ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING AND MAKING FOR A VERY WET AND COOL SATURDAY. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AS
TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A RAW EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT SUPPORTS GOING COOLER FOR SATURDAY...AND HAVE DROPPED
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT MAY
NEED TO DROP TEMPS EVEN FURTHER AS THE SIGNS ARE THERE FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED
FOR MOST ITEMS.

ONE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SETUP WITH
EACH RUN...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. CEILINGS CHANGE FROM IFR TO VFR WITHIN SHORT
DISTANCES...AND THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PLAYED THINGS PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT IFR AROUND FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY RAISING CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH.

CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SITES BY VALID TIME...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY. HOWEVER...AT THE MOMENT
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50




000
FXUS63 KIND 281352
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY...BUT WET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER WESTERN OHIO THAT
HAS JUST EXITED CENTRAL INDIANA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS FOUND ACROSS IOWA. COOL NE
FLOW WAS FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHILE WARMER AND MOIST SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE FOUND ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S. GIVEN THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...SHOWING STEEP LAPSE
RATES THIS AFTERNOON WITH OVER 1200 J/KG OF CAPE...BEFORE MID
LEVEL CAPPING ARRIVES BY 00Z. FURTHERMORE SUPPORT IS EXPECTED AS
THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY AND BROADLY PROPAGATE ACROSS
THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TODAY...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST
AND PUSHING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT.
THUS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BUT THEN BEGIN RAMPING UP POPS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
REACHED IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE OHIO VALLEY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE REMNANT SURFACE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG BACK AS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT PERSISTING AS AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL NOT MIX OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO
MIDDAY AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WILL START OUT THESE AREAS MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO A FASTER ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL ALIGN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A DRY
EVENING FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AS A 45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS...ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING AND MAKING FOR A VERY WET AND COOL SATURDAY. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AS
TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A RAW EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT SUPPORTS GOING COOLER FOR SATURDAY...AND HAVE DROPPED
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT MAY
NEED TO DROP TEMPS EVEN FURTHER AS THE SIGNS ARE THERE FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED
FOR MOST ITEMS.

ONE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SETUP WITH
EACH RUN...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN LATER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. CEILINGS CHANGE FROM IFR TO VFR WITHIN SHORT
DISTANCES...AND THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PLAYED THINGS PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT IFR AROUND FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY RAISING CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH.

CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SITES BY VALID TIME...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY. HOWEVER...AT THE MOMENT
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50




000
FXUS63 KIWX 281037
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
637 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 40S...AND THEN RISE
TO THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN TO THE MIDDLE 60S IN
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF COMBINED WITH A GRAVITY WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS TO THE AREA. A COOL LAYER JUST ABOVE THE GROUND WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO MIX OUT SO THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY.
KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COOL TODAY GIVEN PRECIPITATION WITH A COOL
EAST FLOW. THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL BE
DAMPENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. WHILE BULK
OF THE FORCING WITH THIS DAMPENING SYSTEM WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE AREA BY THIS TIME...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY ACROSS PARTICULARLY FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MOISTURE PROFILES BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. HOWEVER
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY FRIDAY AS DRY LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LOW CLOUDS MAY BE STUBBORN TO
DISSIPATE FRIDAY DUE TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION/TRAPPED MOISTURE WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHILE NEXT SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO KICK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW LEVEL
JET AND AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE POSITIONED WELL
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW/MID
LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION BEGINNING TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INCREASE IN POPS FOR SATURDAY DUE TO THIS
STRONG ADVECTIVE FORCING. WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT THUNDER MENTION
DURING DAY SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY DEEP/STABLE EASTERLY FLOW. SATURDAY
SHOULD BE SHAPING UP AS RATHER RAW GIVEN RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
AND EASTERLY FLOW/EVAPORATIVE COOLING KEEPING TEMPS LOCKED IN PLACE.
UPON COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN
SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE.

IN A VERY SIMILAR FASHION TO THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THIS
MORNING...LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD
STALL OUT ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN INDIANA WITH PROLONGED PRECIP
CHANCES AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DAMPENS IN A SIMILAR FASHION AND MEANDERS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. INSTABILITY MAY BECOME BASED
SHALLOW ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLD THUNDER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTH
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND NO CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

A BRIEF LULL IN SHORT WAVES IMPACTING THE AREA FOR MONDAY AS WEAK
LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROUGHING BECOMES ANCHORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
COOLER LOW LEVEL PROFILES FOR MONDAY SHOULD BE LARGELY OFFSET BY
BETTER INSOLATION WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONABLE NORMS
FOR HIGHS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STARTING
TO CONVERGE A BIT BETTER ON A PAIR OF COMPACT VORTS DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TIMING THESE WAVES DROPPING DOWN
THE RIDGE IS OF LOW RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS FORECAST
DISTANCE BUT DID MAINTAIN BROADBRUSHED LOW POPS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. DAY TO DAY TEMP VARIATIONS SHOULD NOT BE ALL THAT
SIGNIFICANT ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOT OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD ADVECTION
IS POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF STRONGER MID WEEK SHORT WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING WILL SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION TODAY AS IT BEGINS TO APPROACH NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS AFFECTING
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. PROBABILITY OF THUNDER AT TERMINALS
APPEARS TO BE LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAKENING INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY AT KFWA. A BRIEF LULL IN GREATER SHOWER
COVERAGE MAY MATERIALIZE LATER THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING FORCING
FROM UPSTREAM VORT MAX THIS AFTERNOON AND SHARPENING LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS AXIS SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNALLY ENHANCED SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFFECTING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY DETERIORATE
TO IFR AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WEAK SFC REFLECTION
BEGINS TO DEPART ACROSS OHIO WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


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000
FXUS63 KIND 280957
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
557 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY...BUT WET CONDITIONS RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. DRY WEATHER WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
PRESENT. A STRONGER CONVECTIVE LINE PRESENT ACROSS EASTERN ILLINOIS
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE OCCLUDED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STILL QUITE
THE TEMP GRADIENT PRESENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WITH 07Z TEMPS
RUNNING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE
LOWER WABASH VALLEY.

INITIAL ISSUE FOCUSES ON THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO AS THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY PRESSES EAST INTO THE REGION BY
DAYBREAK. HI-RES GUIDANCE CAPTURING THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST OVER
ILLINOIS THIS MORNING...BUT HRRR/WRF/4KM NAM ALL WEAKEN AND
VIRTUALLY DIMINISH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. CONVECTION BEING AIDED BY A THIN MLCAPE
AXIS WITH 500-1000 J/KG...AND ALL SIGNS ARE THAT SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY WILL TRANSITION INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH 10-11Z.
WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR MORE INTENSE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING THE ACTIVITY
COMPLETELY DIMINISH. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...RAPIDLY DROPPING OFF TO LOW CHANCE BY 12Z AS BETTER FORCING
AND MOISTURE SHIFT NORTHEAST. MAIN IMPACTS FROM STORMS THROUGH THE
PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS.

REMAINDER OF THE DAY PRESENTS SOME CHALLENGES AS THE REMNANT
OCCLUDED BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY ALIGNS WEST-EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE LEFTOVER AND MUCH WEAKER SURFACE
WAVE KICKING OUT INTO THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY AND SURFACE WAVE WILL
SERVE AS A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN GET GOING
COURTESY OF DIURNAL HEATING...WITH DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING AS WELL. MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE SUNSHINE AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND
EXPECT AIRMASS TO BECOME MODESTLY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON. ALL OF
THESE FEATURES SUPPORT RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE...LOW LEVEL FORCING
AND BL SHEAR WILL LIKELY KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO SCATTERED AT
BEST. LACK OF SHEAR WILL ALSO LIMIT STORM INTENSITY WITH STRONGER
CELLS BRIEFLY PULSING UP WITHIN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. CANNOT RULE
OUT GUSTY WINDS WITHIN COLLAPSING STORM CORES OR HAIL AS WET BULB
ZERO LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 7KFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
STORMS TO REMAIN UNDER SEVERE LEVELS. WILL CARRY SCATTERED POPS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWEST
POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST FURTHEST AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY AND WITHIN A
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIRMASS.

TEMPS...AFTER A COOL WEDNESDAY...SUNSHINE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL ENABLE A NICE RECOVERY TODAY. NORTHERN
COUNTIES LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S NEAR/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH
70S ELSEWHERE. TRENDED TOWARDS WARM END OF GUIDANCE FOR MOST...WHICH
ENDED UP CLOSE TO WRF/4KM NAM MODEL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE OHIO VALLEY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE REMNANT SURFACE WAVE DEPARTS OFF TO THE
EAST. TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL HANG BACK AS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND WITH WEAK FORCING ALOFT PERSISTING AS AN UPPER WAVE
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD IN EARLY
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SHALLOW INVERSION DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY
MANIFEST AS A LOW STRATUS DECK THAT WILL NOT MIX OUT UNTIL CLOSER TO
MIDDAY AS THE INVERSION WEAKENS. WILL START OUT THESE AREAS MOSTLY
CLOUDY...BUT EXPECT INCREASING SUNSHINE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY LATE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK TO A FASTER ARRIVAL OF
DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
WILL ALIGN NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER A DRY
EVENING FRIDAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z
SATURDAY AS A 45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN
THE PREDAWN HOURS...ENCOMPASSING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY MID
MORNING AND MAKING FOR A VERY WET AND COOL SATURDAY. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SATURDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND A SURFACE WAVE TRACKING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS FRIDAY AS
TEMPS LIKELY TO RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A RAW EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT SUPPORTS GOING COOLER FOR SATURDAY...AND HAVE DROPPED
HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE THAT MAY
NEED TO DROP TEMPS EVEN FURTHER AS THE SIGNS ARE THERE FOR TEMPS TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-70. UTILIZED A MODEL
BLEND FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED
FOR MOST ITEMS.

ONE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD KEEPING
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
TUESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA AND ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SETUP WITH
EACH RUN...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN LATER
PERIODS.

&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
MVFR OR WORSE LIKELY AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS A BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. CEILINGS CHANGE FROM IFR TO VFR WITHIN SHORT
DISTANCES...AND THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PLAYED THINGS PESSIMISTIC AND KEPT IFR AROUND FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY RAISING CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER
AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH.

CURRENT CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SITES BY VALID TIME...BUT
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP TODAY. HOWEVER...AT THE MOMENT
FEEL THAT THE COMBINATION OF SCATTERED COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50




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