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000
FXUS63 KIWX 110013
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
713 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE MORE
INCHES IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING AS THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CHALLENGE. MODERATE LAKE
INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST THIS FORECAST PERIOD. NOT
EXPECTING AS MUCH IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT AS IN THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOUR PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SHEARED VORT MAX SHOULD REACH
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT KSBN WITH FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN IFR
AND MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED. MVFR VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
KFWA EARLY EVENING...WITH CONFIDENCE IN VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KFWA
LOWER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS BULK OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE AT KSBN. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS SHOULD SETTLE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 102234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL DOMINANT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMUP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL OR WARMER BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A WEAKENING IMPULSE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE ABOUT
ALL CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE FROM THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THEN SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT REGIME SAW VERY LITTLE
REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM A MOS BLEND OF LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 6 TO 11 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
THE DAY...HOWEVER PORTIONS MAY BE MOSTLY SUNNY AT TIMES.

THEN MODELS ARE PREDICTING A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY AS EARLY AS VERY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND
THEN LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES A LULL
IN SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY FOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -10 FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE
ACCEPTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS GOOD
CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN VARIOUS FORMS OF GUIDANCE.

THE BLEND WILL BE USED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS. THAT BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
FIELDS OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS AS WELL AS INCREASED ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THAT REDUCES CONFIDENCE.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 110000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LINGERING SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 030 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DRYING NEAR THIS LEVEL LATER TONIGHT...SO THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...LAYERED
CLOUD COVER ABOVE 050.

SURFACE WINDS 260-280 DEGREES AT 7-9 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER 110600Z. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS



000
FXUS63 KIND 102234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL DOMINANT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMUP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL OR WARMER BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A WEAKENING IMPULSE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE ABOUT
ALL CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE FROM THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THEN SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT REGIME SAW VERY LITTLE
REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM A MOS BLEND OF LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 6 TO 11 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
THE DAY...HOWEVER PORTIONS MAY BE MOSTLY SUNNY AT TIMES.

THEN MODELS ARE PREDICTING A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY AS EARLY AS VERY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND
THEN LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES A LULL
IN SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY FOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -10 FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE
ACCEPTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS GOOD
CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN VARIOUS FORMS OF GUIDANCE.

THE BLEND WILL BE USED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS. THAT BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
FIELDS OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS AS WELL AS INCREASED ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THAT REDUCES CONFIDENCE.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 110000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LINGERING SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 030 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DRYING NEAR THIS LEVEL LATER TONIGHT...SO THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...LAYERED
CLOUD COVER ABOVE 050.

SURFACE WINDS 260-280 DEGREES AT 7-9 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER 110600Z. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 102234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
532 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL DOMINANT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMUP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL OR WARMER BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A WEAKENING IMPULSE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE ABOUT
ALL CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE FROM THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THEN SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT REGIME SAW VERY LITTLE
REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM A MOS BLEND OF LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 6 TO 11 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
THE DAY...HOWEVER PORTIONS MAY BE MOSTLY SUNNY AT TIMES.

THEN MODELS ARE PREDICTING A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY AS EARLY AS VERY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND
THEN LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES A LULL
IN SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY FOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -10 FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE
ACCEPTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS GOOD
CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN VARIOUS FORMS OF GUIDANCE.

THE BLEND WILL BE USED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS. THAT BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
FIELDS OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS AS WELL AS INCREASED ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THAT REDUCES CONFIDENCE.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 110000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 532 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LINGERING SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 030 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS DRYING NEAR THIS LEVEL LATER TONIGHT...SO THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...LAYERED
CLOUD COVER ABOVE 050.

SURFACE WINDS 260-280 DEGREES AT 7-9 KTS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER 110600Z. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 102049 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL DOMINANT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMUP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL OR WARMER BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A WEAKENING IMPULSE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE ABOUT
ALL CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE FROM THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THEN SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT REGIME SAW VERY LITTLE
REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM A MOS BLEND OF LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 6 TO 11 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD. SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
THE DAY...HOWEVER PORTIONS MAY BE MOSTLY SUNNY AT TIMES.

THEN MODELS ARE PREDICTING A FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY AS EARLY AS VERY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR AND
THEN LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES A LULL
IN SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY FOR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. THEN THE
UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND SINKS FARTHER SOUTH AND PUSHES EASTWARD
NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -10 FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE
ACCEPTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS GOOD
CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN VARIOUS FORMS OF GUIDANCE.

THE BLEND WILL BE USED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS. THAT BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
FIELDS OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS AS WELL AS INCREASED ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THAT REDUCES CONFIDENCE.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY DIURNAL
CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THUS
HAVE TRENDED TO DECREASING VFR STRATOCU CIGS THIS AFTERNOON

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE QUICK NW FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO SOME HIGH CI CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE WILL CONTINUE VFR AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF LONG TERM....JK AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 102049
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A STRONG AND COLD CANADIAN UPPER LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH
WILL DOMINANT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WARMUP IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS COULD
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL OR WARMER BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

A WEAKENING IMPULSE CURRENTLY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS FEATURE AND ANY ASSOCIATED SNOW SHOWERS OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ARE ABOUT
ALL CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SEE FROM THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. THEN SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT REGIME SAW VERY LITTLE
REASON TO STRAY FAR FROM A MOS BLEND OF LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM 6 TO 11 ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VERY COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY
AND KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD. SKIES WILL AVERAGE TO PARTLY
CLOUD FOR THE DAY...HOWEVER PORTIONS MAY BE MOSTLY SUNNY AT TIME.
THEN MODELS ARE PREDICTING AS FASTER MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY AS EARLY AS VERY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING RUSH
HOUR AND THEN LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE
INDICATES A LULL IN SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY FOR EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. THEN THE UPPER LOW STRENGTHENS AND SINKS FARTHER SOUTH
AND PUSHES EASTWARD NORTH OF THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY AND
A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE REST OF THIS PERIOD WILL STAY MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM AROUND -5 TO -10 FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE
ACCEPTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS GOOD
CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN VARIOUS FORMS OF GUIDANCE.

THE BLEND WILL BE USED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS. THAT BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
FIELDS OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS AS WELL AS INCREASED ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THAT REDUCES CONFIDENCE.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY DIURNAL
CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THUS
HAVE TRENDED TO DECREASING VFR STRATOCU CIGS THIS AFTERNOON

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE QUICK NW FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO SOME HIGH CI CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE WILL CONTINUE VFR AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF LONG TERM....JK AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 102047
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH A COUPLE MORE
INCHES IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
20S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

NW FLOW AND LAKE INDUCED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH DELTA T`S NEAR
20C AND 300-400J/KG CAPE SHOULD ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY. LOWERING
INVERSION, DRY AIR ADVECTION, AND BACKING WINDS SHOULD CAUSE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
AND CONTG THROUGH THE DAY THU. ADDITIONAL ACCUMS TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, IN THE 1-3" RANGE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF
THE CWA AND GENERALLY <1" FARTHER INLAND, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR LESS IN THE WINTER WX ADVISORY AREA ON THU. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE STORM TOTAL FOR THIS PROLONGED EVENT UP TO AROUND A FOOT IN
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

GRADIENT MIXING AND SOME CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AGAIN TONIGHT. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS SW AND NE WHERE PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED, AND IN THE 10-15
RANGE OVER THE REST OF THE CWA WHICH SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY. WK
WAA AND A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE THU SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
WARMER TEMPS THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE L-M20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

BACKING FLOW AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO STIFFLE LES
PRODUCTION ALONG SOUTHERN PERIPHERY LATE THU/THU NIGHT...
RETREATING NWD INTO MI. WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES TOWARD OHIO
VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY IN TEMPORARY RELAXATION IN SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER AS A STRONG 65N ORIGINATING VORTEX PLUNGES
SSEWD INTO RESPONSE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGING.
MORE ARCTIC FRONTAL FORCED SHSN INTO FRI AFTN FOLLOWED BY RETURN
OF LES. HAVE RAMPED LES POPS SUBSTANTIALLY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH
NEAR 20/LWR 20S DELTA T. LESS REMARKABLE MOISTURE DEPTH AND
THIN/MOSTLY SUB CLOUD DGZ TO AFFORD TO LIKELY KEEP OVERALL
QPF/ACCUMS/SLR IN CHECK...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
TARGETED ADV. COLDEST TEMPS SAT NIGHT IN HEART OF 925MB THERMAL
TROF WITH LES RESPONSE QUICKLY WANING AMID DESCENDING INVERSION
HEIGHTS/NRLY VEERING FLOW LIKELY PUSHING LES INTO NWRN IN/NERN IL.
FLATTER MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW INTO MID WEEK TO EMBARQ OF THERMAL
MODERATION ALONG WITH EPISODIC LOW CHC PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SBN
THIS AFTN/EVE IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION LOWERS
WHILE AT FWA PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 101920
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 955 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

1445Z UPDATE...AS EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY EXITING
CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SKIES ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO BREAK AND SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LATEST IN CURRENT TRENDS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION FROM THE REGIONAL SOFTWARE WILL BE
ACCEPTED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SUNDAY WHEN THERE IS GOOD
CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN VARIOUS FORMS OF GUIDANCE.

THE BLEND WILL BE USED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
FROM THE EUROPEAN MODEL AND THE GFS. THAT BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE.
HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC
FIELDS OF THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS AS WELL AS INCREASED ENSEMBLE
SPREAD. THAT REDUCES CONFIDENCE.




&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY DIURNAL
CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THUS
HAVE TRENDED TO DECREASING VFR STRATOCU CIGS THIS AFTERNOON

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE QUICK NW FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO SOME HIGH CI CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE WILL CONTINUE VFR AT THAT
TIME.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 101722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1222 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 955 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

1445Z UPDATE...AS EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY EXITING
CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SKIES ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO BREAK AND SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LATEST IN CURRENT TRENDS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY DIURNAL
CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THUS
HAVE TRENDED TO DECREASING VFR STRATOCU CIGS THIS AFTERNOON

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE QUICK NW FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO SOME HIGH CI CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE WILL CONTINUE VFR AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 101722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1222 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 955 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

1445Z UPDATE...AS EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY EXITING
CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SKIES ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO BREAK AND SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LATEST IN CURRENT TRENDS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY DIURNAL
CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THUS
HAVE TRENDED TO DECREASING VFR STRATOCU CIGS THIS AFTERNOON

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE QUICK NW FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO SOME HIGH CI CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE WILL CONTINUE VFR AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 101722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1222 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 955 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

1445Z UPDATE...AS EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY EXITING
CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SKIES ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO BREAK AND SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LATEST IN CURRENT TRENDS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1212 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY DIURNAL
CU IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. THUS
HAVE TRENDED TO DECREASING VFR STRATOCU CIGS THIS AFTERNOON

GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
INDIANA LATE TONIGHT WITHIN THE QUICK NW FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO SOME HIGH CI CIGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THE SHORT WAVE DEPARTS ON THURSDAY MORNING...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD AT THE SURFACE. THUS HAVE WILL CONTINUE VFR AT THAT
TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 101639
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SBN
THIS AFTN/EVE IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION LOWERS
WHILE AT FWA PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 101639
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SBN
THIS AFTN/EVE IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION LOWERS
WHILE AT FWA PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 101639
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

COLD NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LAKE EFFECT SHSN ACROSS
NRN INDIANA THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SBN
THIS AFTN/EVE IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS INVERSION LOWERS
WHILE AT FWA PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 101502
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 955 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

1445Z UPDATE...AS EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE QUICKLY EXITING
CENTRAL INDIANA TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THESE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SKIES ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO BREAK AND SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA AND EXPECT THIS IMPROVEMENT IN SKY CONDITIONS TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST OTHER THAN ACCOUNTING FOR THE
LATEST IN CURRENT TRENDS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING QUICKLY TO TAF SITES AS SATELLITE SHOWS
STRATOCU DEPARTING TO THE SE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH LCL/S NEAR 3.5K FEET. THUS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. HELD ON
TO FLURRIES AT IND THROUGH 15Z AND TEMPO IFR AT BMG TIL 13ZBASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND MOS SUGGEST
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z AT IND AND LAF AND A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AT BMG AND HUF. COULD ALSO SEE VFR AT TIMES BEFORE
THAT. BY 23Z...SHOULD SEE THE CU DISSIPATE WITH JUST SOME CI OR AC
IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 101433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
933 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING QUICKLY TO TAF SITES AS SATELLITE SHOWS
STRATOCU DEPARTING TO THE SE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH LCL/S NEAR 3.5K FEET. THUS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. HELD ON
TO FLURRIES AT IND THROUGH 15Z AND TEMPO IFR AT BMG TIL 13ZBASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND MOS SUGGEST
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z AT IND AND LAF AND A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AT BMG AND HUF. COULD ALSO SEE VFR AT TIMES BEFORE
THAT. BY 23Z...SHOULD SEE THE CU DISSIPATE WITH JUST SOME CI OR AC
IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 101433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
933 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING QUICKLY TO TAF SITES AS SATELLITE SHOWS
STRATOCU DEPARTING TO THE SE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS WITH LCL/S NEAR 3.5K FEET. THUS AS
HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD VFR CIGS BY LATE MORNING.

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. HELD ON
TO FLURRIES AT IND THROUGH 15Z AND TEMPO IFR AT BMG TIL 13ZBASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND MOS SUGGEST
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z AT IND AND LAF AND A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AT BMG AND HUF. COULD ALSO SEE VFR AT TIMES BEFORE
THAT. BY 23Z...SHOULD SEE THE CU DISSIPATE WITH JUST SOME CI OR AC
IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/JP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 101138
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSITORY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
AND CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
IFR AND LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER BURSTS. PRIMARY FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS
OF TERMINALS WITH WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. DRIER
AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD HELP LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH LATER TODAY BUT
TRAJECTORIES AND COLD AIR WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN A RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRIED TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE TODAY AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL
TOTALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS END UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD CERTAINLY SEE VFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KFWA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 101138
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSITORY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
AND CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
IFR AND LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER BURSTS. PRIMARY FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS
OF TERMINALS WITH WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. DRIER
AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD HELP LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH LATER TODAY BUT
TRAJECTORIES AND COLD AIR WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN A RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRIED TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE TODAY AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL
TOTALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS END UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD CERTAINLY SEE VFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KFWA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 101138
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSITORY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
AND CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
IFR AND LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER BURSTS. PRIMARY FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS
OF TERMINALS WITH WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. DRIER
AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD HELP LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH LATER TODAY BUT
TRAJECTORIES AND COLD AIR WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN A RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRIED TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE TODAY AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL
TOTALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS END UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD CERTAINLY SEE VFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KFWA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 101138
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSITORY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
AND CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
IFR AND LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER BURSTS. PRIMARY FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS
OF TERMINALS WITH WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. DRIER
AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD HELP LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH LATER TODAY BUT
TRAJECTORIES AND COLD AIR WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN A RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRIED TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE TODAY AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL
TOTALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS END UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD CERTAINLY SEE VFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KFWA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 101138
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
638 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT
STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS
NEAR THE LAKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH TRANSITORY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
AND CONDITIONS RANGING FROM VFR OUTSIDE OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS TO
IFR AND LIFR WITHIN HEAVIER BURSTS. PRIMARY FOCUS ON NEXT 6 HOURS
OF TERMINALS WITH WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD. DRIER
AIR UPSTREAM SHOULD HELP LIMIT MOISTURE DEPTH LATER TODAY BUT
TRAJECTORIES AND COLD AIR WILL SUSTAIN LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN A RATHER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TRIED TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST MVFR LATE TODAY AT BOTH TERMINALS BUT WILL
TOTALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE STRONGER BANDS END UP THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD CERTAINLY SEE VFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY KFWA LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 101100
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. HELD ON
TO FLURRIES AT IND THROUGH 15Z AND TEMPO IFR AT BMG TIL 13ZBASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND MOS SUGGEST
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z AT IND AND LAF AND A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AT BMG AND HUF. COULD ALSO SEE VFR AT TIMES BEFORE
THAT. BY 23Z...SHOULD SEE THE CU DISSIPATE WITH JUST SOME CI OR AC
IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 101100
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. HELD ON
TO FLURRIES AT IND THROUGH 15Z AND TEMPO IFR AT BMG TIL 13ZBASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND MOS SUGGEST
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z AT IND AND LAF AND A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AT BMG AND HUF. COULD ALSO SEE VFR AT TIMES BEFORE
THAT. BY 23Z...SHOULD SEE THE CU DISSIPATE WITH JUST SOME CI OR AC
IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 101100
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. HELD ON
TO FLURRIES AT IND THROUGH 15Z AND TEMPO IFR AT BMG TIL 13ZBASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND MOS SUGGEST
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z AT IND AND LAF AND A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AT BMG AND HUF. COULD ALSO SEE VFR AT TIMES BEFORE
THAT. BY 23Z...SHOULD SEE THE CU DISSIPATE WITH JUST SOME CI OR AC
IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 101100
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. HELD ON
TO FLURRIES AT IND THROUGH 15Z AND TEMPO IFR AT BMG TIL 13ZBASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND MOS SUGGEST
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z AT IND AND LAF AND A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AT BMG AND HUF. COULD ALSO SEE VFR AT TIMES BEFORE
THAT. BY 23Z...SHOULD SEE THE CU DISSIPATE WITH JUST SOME CI OR AC
IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 101100
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 101200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

THE SNOW SHOULD BE OVER AT OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME. HELD ON
TO FLURRIES AT IND THROUGH 15Z AND TEMPO IFR AT BMG TIL 13ZBASED ON
LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE...MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND MOS SUGGEST
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z AT IND AND LAF AND A FEW
HOURS EARLIER AT BMG AND HUF. COULD ALSO SEE VFR AT TIMES BEFORE
THAT. BY 23Z...SHOULD SEE THE CU DISSIPATE WITH JUST SOME CI OR AC
IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN AWHILE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100940
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN
IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AWAY WELL AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100940
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
440 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 439 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AND WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN
IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT REGION. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS AWAY WELL AWAY FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WERE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
EXTENSIVE LAKE RESPONSE CONTINUES. THAT BEING SAID...ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO 1 OR 2 DOMINANT SNOW BANDS THAT HAVE
GENERALLY REMAINED TRANSITORY. THE FIRST BAND...WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY SE ACROSS MUCH OF ST. JOE COUNTY IN INDIANA
AND INTO PORTIONS OF MARSHALL AND KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES. A SECOND
BAND HAS  SET UP FROM THREE RIVERS MI SE TO NW OF ALBION. LOCAL
VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED BRIEFLY TO AROUND A HALF MILE AT TIMES
WITH LOCATIONS UNDER THE BANDS LIKELY SEEING A QUICK FEW TENTHS TO
ONE HALF INCH OF SNOW.

ARW HAS GENERALLY HANDLED EVOLUTION OF SNOW BANDS THE BEST SO WILL
LEAN SOMEWHAT TOWARDS IT WITH PARTIAL NOD TO NAM. CHALLENGES LIE
TODAY WITH EXACT PLACEMENT OF SNOW BANDS...COVERAGE AND EFFECTS OF
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARRIVING FROM WISCONSIN WHERE SFC DEWPTS WERE
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. THIS HAS CUT DOWN THE EXTENT OF SNOW BAND
PRODUCTION WELL OUT INTO THE LAKE BUT OTHER PARAMETERS AND EFFECTS
OF SOON TO DEPART SHORT WAVE ALL HELPING KEEP THINGS GOING. THINK
THAT MANY AREAS WILL STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WITH
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS IN CURRENT ADVISORY AREA THROUGH THE DAY. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE THAN A DUSTING DURING THE DAY BUT
LOCALIZE AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO FAVORED LAKE EFFECT AREAS.

INVERSION HEIGHTS...FETCH AND ALIGNMENT OF DGZ AND BEST OMEGA WILL
ALL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO KEEP SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCTION ONGOING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING WITH DIMINISHING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER INLAND. THE NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL LIKELY
HELP LIMIT OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS BUT STILL SHOULD YIELD 1 TO 4
INCHES LOCALLY ACROSS MAINLY THE ADVISORY AREA.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE W AND SW AS BRIEF
RIDGING SHIFTS THE SNOW SHOWERS INTO WESTERN MICHIGAN.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST. UPPER LEVELS WILL FLATTEN SUBTLY DURING THIS LONG
TERM PERIOD AS NORTH PACIFIC WAVE TRAIN TEMPORARILY FLATTENS WESTERN
RIDGING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING POLAR VORTEX WILL ALLOW AN UPPER LOW
AND A SHOT OF VERY COLD SIBERIAN AIR TO PENETRATE SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS BY THIS WEEKEND...SKIMMING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PACIFIC ENERGY TRAILING THIS ARCTIC COLD WILL REINFORCE GREAT LAKES
TROUGHINESS BUT ALSO ALLOW A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MAIN COLD CORE EXITS.

NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES AND PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED DURING
THIS PERIOD. TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND LOCATION OF LAKE EFFECT
REMAIN DIFFICULT AT THESE TIME PERIODS SO CONTINUED WITH BROAD BRUSH
POPS. DID FAVOR ECMWF SLIGHTLY BUT STAYED CLOSE TO OVERALL
SUPERBLEND INIT. RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGIONS GIVEN SFC-850MB DELTA T
VALUES IN MID 20S. LITTLE SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WITH ARCTIC AIR AND DGZ
NEAR GROUND LEVEL WILL LIKELY INHIBIT BIG SNOWFALL BUT LONG FETCH
AND PRE-CONDITIONING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WARRANTS CLOSE WATCHING NEXT
FEW DAYS. ECMWF ALSO RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH A SHORT WAVE MONDAY
BRINGING DEEPER MOISTURE AND SWATH OF SNOW INTO EASTERN AREAS. KEPT
POPS IN THE MID CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 100822
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

ADDED WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 100822
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

ADDED WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 100822
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

ADDED WIND GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 100754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA TODAY...TAKING MOST SNOW CHANCES
WITH IT. COLD...AND AT TIMES FRIGID...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A WARMUP NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
SYSTEMS COULD BRING SOME SNOW FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT SNOW IS ENDING
AND SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS ILLINOIS.

THE TREND OF ENDING THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO THAT BY
12Z THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE DRY. WILL GO LOW
POPS EAST HALF THIS MORNING...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS.

THE FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA WILL SEE POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH DUE TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD WORK INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT SHOULD HELP KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE EAST THIS MORNING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER FEATURE.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW COVER TODAY...GENERALLY WENT BELOW
MAV MOS FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A BLEND TO BE USED.

A WEAKENING UPPER IMPULSE WILL SLIDE TO OUR SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA DRY. MEANWHILE...THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AREA COULD SEE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE TO LAKE EFFECT. WILL GO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THERE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND COLD.

ANOTHER UPPER PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY ALONG WITH AN UPPER JET. MODELS HAVE BEEN DRYING UP THE QPF
WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE PLOTS SHOW SOME FORCING AS WELL. THUS FEEL THAT
LOW CHANCE POPS ARE STILL WARRANTED MOST AREAS.

AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WENT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST DUE TO POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT.

WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT...MOS LOW TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS LOOK GOOD. GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL
BLEND AFTER THAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 100728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 100728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS



000
FXUS63 KIND 100728
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. PREFER TO STICK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z BLEND
AND SEE IF SUBSEQUENT EURO RUNS STICK WITH THE STRONGER MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW ON
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 100726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. EITHER WAY...WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH SNOW ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 100726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. EITHER WAY...WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH SNOW ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS



000
FXUS63 KIND 100726
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW TO RETURN NORTH. THE 00Z GFS AND GEM
AND 12Z ECMWF ALL HAD A SURFACE SYSTEM SLIDING JUST ONSHORE OF THE
GULF LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SYSTEM THEN IS IS
PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST BEFORE HEADING OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS NOW DEVELOPED A STRONGER AND FURTHER
NORTH SURFACE SYSTEM. THE NEW EURO WAS BRINGING THIS LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE MORE NORTHERLY
EURO WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  SNOW ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. THE GFS...GEM AND MORNING EURO WOULD RESULT
IN LIGHTER AMOUNTS. EITHER WAY...WENT WITH SNOW CHANCES STARTING ON
SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH SNOW ON MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OF COLD ON SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND
MORNING NEGATIVE MORNING WIND CHILLS LOOK GOOD. AFTER
THAT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING WITH 40S POSSIBLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW FALLS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BELT
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND IMPACTS AT TERMINALS MAIN FOCUS THIS
PACKAGE. KIWX 88D SHOWS STRONG BAND JUST NORTH OF KSBN AT ISSUANCE
TIME AND SINKING SOUTH. SHOULD SEE LIFR AND VLIFR CONDITIONS NEXT
FEW HOURS AS A FEW SFC REPORTS UNDER THIS BAND INDICATED NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES. HIRES MODELS INDICATE
THIS BAND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT OR AT LEAST TRANSLATE AWAY FROM
KSBN SO SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONDITIONS AFTER 09-10Z. PERSISTENT NW
FLOW AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD AT KSBN. KFWA REMAINS ON
EASTERN EDGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EXPECT VARIED CONDITIONS WITH
MVFR IN SNOW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR NOT OUT OF QUESTION
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A FEW STRONGER SHOWERS THAT REMAIN
INTACT WELL INLAND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 100436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 100436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 100436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS A MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING THE
TERMINALS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING IFR RESTRICTIONS
TO REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED IN NATURE.

CEILINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 025-045 RANGE THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY...BUT MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWER IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 270-300 DEGREES AT 8-12 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS



000
FXUS63 KIND 100225
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
923 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 923 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

APPEARS THE LOWER MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. WILL HOLD ONTO SOME OCCASIONAL CEILINGS
AROUND 025 FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THESE CEILINGS STILL EXIST IN THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATES OUT OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY AND RESULTANT FREQUENCY OF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CEILINGS GENERALLY 020-030 TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 280-300 DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. SOME SURFACE
GUSTS 18-20 KTS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100216
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
916 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 100216
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
916 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100216
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
916 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LAKE RESPONSE STARTING TO BECOME MORE
APPARENT VIA OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY. RAP BUFR
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS THROUGH
AROUND 09Z. NATURE OF LAKE EFFECT HAS BEEN CELLULAR MULTIBAND
THIS EVENING AND WOULD SUSPECT INTENSITY TO PICK UP LATE EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR IN
CLOUD BEARING LAYER MAY CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MORE OF A MULTIBAND
SETUP THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN THAT A MORE DOMINANT BAND MAY SETUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING PER RECENT HRRR TRENDS AS WEAK SYNOPTIC
TROUGH DEPARTS SOUTH OF THE LAKE ALLOWING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
WIND FIELD ALONG WITH A PEAK IN LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY.
CURRENTLY HAVE NO PLANS FOR HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN POTENTIAL MORE DOMINANT PLACEMENT/INTENSITY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FORECASTED SNOW ACCUMS. ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY HAS
STRUGGLED AWAY FROM THE LAKE THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH INCREASING
MORE FAVORABLE THERMO PROFILES FOR SNOW GROWTH SHOULD BEGIN TO
COME INTO PLAY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND THUS HESITANT TO
LOWER AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100004
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
704 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 100004
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
704 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 100004
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
704 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD. EXPECTING IFR VSBYS IN THE 1-2
MILE RANGE TO CONTINUE AT KSBN THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...WITH
SOME LOWER END PROBABILITY OF LIFR VSBYS. NEXT SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH MORE ORGANIZED BANDING POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF THIS WEAK
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DID MAINTAIN TEMPO
LIFR CONDITIONS AT KSBN AFTER 07Z GIVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL LAKE
EFFECT PARAMETERS BY THIS TIME. AT LEAST IFR VSBYS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD AT
KSBN...ALTHOUGH GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES MAY BE CONFINED TO THE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY PERIOD. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LESS AT KFWA WHERE IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
CONTRIBUTION OVERNIGHT ALLOWING SOME BETTER INLAND PENETRATION OF
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW SHOWERS. NOT MUCH CHANGE ANTICIPATED TO
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY WESTERLY IN THE 15G20-25 KNOT
RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 092357
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATES OUT OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY AND RESULTANT FREQUENCY OF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CEILINGS GENERALLY 020-030 TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 280-300 DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. SOME SURFACE
GUSTS 18-20 KTS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 092357
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST STILL IN FINE SHAPE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATES OUT OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY AND RESULTANT FREQUENCY OF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CEILINGS GENERALLY 020-030 TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 280-300 DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. SOME SURFACE
GUSTS 18-20 KTS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS



000
FXUS63 KIND 092235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATES OUT OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY AND RESULTANT FREQUENCY OF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CEILINGS GENERALLY 020-030 TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 280-300 DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. SOME SURFACE
GUSTS 18-20 KTS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 092235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATES OUT OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY AND RESULTANT FREQUENCY OF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CEILINGS GENERALLY 020-030 TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 280-300 DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. SOME SURFACE
GUSTS 18-20 KTS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS



000
FXUS63 KIND 092235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
533 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 100000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 533 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF WEDNESDAY AS A VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATES OUT OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY AND RESULTANT FREQUENCY OF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING AS
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
CEILINGS GENERALLY 020-030 TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 280-300 DEGREES AT 10-15 KTS TONIGHT. SOME SURFACE
GUSTS 18-20 KTS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 092059
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
359 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
EXITING SYSTEM...BUT THEY WILL COME TO AN END TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.S.  SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND.  A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM SWEEPS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE SNOW
SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS INCREASING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE
WITH DIURNAL EFFECTS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED DURING ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS...BUT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL WITH ADDITIONAL TOTALS ONLY UP TO 1 INCH. AS A
RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT
CREATING WIND CHILL READINGS OF 2 BELOW TO 8 ABOVE ZERO. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 322 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES FARTHER EAST. MEANWHILE...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
CREATING NORTHWEST FLOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. FETCH WILL BE
EFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO INFILTRATE
CENTRAL INDIANA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT THOUGH.

THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN PLACE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS TOMORROW AND
WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS. THE COLDEST NIGHT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. WIND CHILL READINGS COULD DIP TO
NEAR 8 BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 091800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WHILE VISIBILITY VARIES FROM 6+ MILES
IN FLURRIES DOWN TO 2 MILES DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR CLOUD DECKW YIELDING FAIRLY STEADY SNOW SHOWERS.
DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL STRENGTHEN LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN SOME
SCATTERED AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. FINAL MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING THAT WILL BRING
AN END TO MOST SNOW SHOWERS OR AT WORST LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING
FLURRIES. LOW CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA AFTER
101500Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH THE GUSTINESS OF THE WIND WILL END DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 092046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 092046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 092046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

A VERY DEEP COLD CORE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF JAMES BAY
NEAR FAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. DELTA T VALUES MAY EXCEED 25C
SATURDAY AS A FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH DEVELOPS. THE FETCH SHOULD BE
MORE NORTH/SOUTH THAN THIS ONGOING EVENT... WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. HAVE RAISED SNOW CHANCES SATURDAY
IN THIS REGARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT...CAUSING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO SHIFT WEST.

KEPT TEMPERATURES VERY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOWS NEAR ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OVER
FRESH SNOW COVER. MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE HIGH ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 092007
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
307 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2
INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LESSEN IN INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY
THURSDAY. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND
GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT
REGION SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
NORTHERN INDIANA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LONG DURATION LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTN AS
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL NW FLOW AND CAA OVERSPREADS LAKE MICHIGAN
AND NW PORTION OF OUR CWA. FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR LES TONIGHT INCLUDE
A DEEP MOIST LAYER FROM THE SFC-700MB, LITTLE SFC-850MB LAYER SHEAR,
A SHRTWV MOVG ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING INVERSION HEIGHTS TO RISE TO
AROUND 6KFT AND PROVIDING WK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. SFC TROF
REFLECTION SHOULD ALSO MOVE SE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT
STRENGTHENING BANDS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ENHANCED, BUT ALSO
PSBLY CAUSING DOMINANT BANDS TO BECOME SOMEWHAT TRANSITORY.
MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT IS WK
LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY OF <500J/KG. HIGH RES MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT ON A COUPLE OF DOMINANT BANDS IMPACTING THE AREA, ONE
THROUGH CASS COUNTY MI AND SECOND IMPACTING SW BERRIEN, NW ST JOE
INDIANA, AND PSBLY NE LAPORTE. EXPECT GENERAL 2-4" SNOWFALL ACCUMS
IN THE ADVISORY AREA TONIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS PSBL IN
AREAS WHERE DOMINANT BANDS PERSIST THE LONGEST.

LOW LEVEL CAA EXPECTED TO CONT WED AS 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH -21C
AIR MOVES OVER THE LAKE. DESPITE THIS, LITTLE CHANGE IN LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY FCST AS WARMING OCCURS ABOVE INVERSION BASED AROUND
4.5KFT. WITH SOME DRYING OF THE COLUMN ALSO OCCURRING WED/WED NGT,
EXPECT ACCUMS IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL BE A LITTLE LIGHTER THAN
TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE 1-3" RANGE EACH PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD
FINALLY WIND DOWN THU AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN, INVERSION LOWERS, AND
LOW LEVELS CONT TO DRY OUT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMS EXPECTED TO BE <1"
IN THIS PERIOD. THUS, CONTD WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR THIS LAKE
EFFECT SNOW EVENT AS 12-24HR AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE BLO
WARNING CRITERIA, THOUGH STORM TOTALS (INCLUDING LAST NIGHT`S
SNOWFALL) WILL PRBLY BE CLOSE TO A FOOT IN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY
AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THE CWA, BRISK CYCLONIC NW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
HWVR, TYPICAL OF LAKE EFFECT, ACCUMS WILL BE LESS FARTHER INLAND,
THOUGH SOME COUNTIES BORDERING THE ADVISORY MAY HAVE 3-5" STORM
TOTALS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL SLOW DECLINE OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS
THERMAL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS TNGT SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN
THE TEENS WITH HIGHS WED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO L20S, AND LOWS WED
NGT AROUND 10 ABOVE. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY THU AS WK WAA
DVLPS, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE L20S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR
     INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


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000
FXUS63 KIND 091934
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
234 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 20S AND ARE
STILL PROGGED TO TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /DISCUSSION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE PERIOD STARTS WITH STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A DRY AND COLD PERIOD FOR CENTRAL INDIANA BUT MODERATION ALREADY
BEGINS SUNDAY. THIS MAY BE THE LAST FLIRT WITH NEAR ZERO
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WINTER AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL LATE
NEXT WEEK.

LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A BIT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN HOW A TROUGH IN THE WEST TAKES SHAPE AND HEADS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. CONFIDENCE LOW AS LATEST EURO DEVELOPS
SEPARATE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SYSTEMS WHILE GFS FEEDS MORE OF
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE INTO INDIANA. THUS GFS SUGGESTS SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW OR MORE MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHILE EURO KEEPS MORE MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONSENSUS SOLUTION WILL BE USED FOR NOW AND SNOW AMOUNTS LIKELY
TO BE ADJUSTED OVER TIME. ON THE HEELS OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WE
SHOULD REMAIN COLD ENOUGH THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW THOUGH
GFS WARMS THINGS ENOUGH FOR A POSSIBLE MIX IN THE SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AS SNOW/RAIN MIX FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE DRAWING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND A CONSENSUS OF VALUES WILL BE USED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 091800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WHILE VISIBILITY VARIES FROM 6+ MILES
IN FLURRIES DOWN TO 2 MILES DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR CLOUD DECKW YIELDING FAIRLY STEADY SNOW SHOWERS.
DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL STRENGTHEN LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN SOME
SCATTERED AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. FINAL MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING THAT WILL BRING
AN END TO MOST SNOW SHOWERS OR AT WORST LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING
FLURRIES. LOW CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA AFTER
101500Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH THE GUSTINESS OF THE WIND WILL END DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 091717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 091717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 091717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 091717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 091717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1217 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S, WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1153 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

-SHSN DIMINISHING LATE THIS MORNING AS VORT MAX WHICH MOVED
THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT DIVES SSE INTO THE OH VALLEY, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST BLO FUEL ALTERNATE THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
CAA WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SHSN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS EVE WITH LIFR CONDITIONS AT SBN AND OCNL IFR AT FWA. LITTLE
OR NO IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS NW
FLOW CONTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 091704
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1204 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 20S AND ARE
STILL PROGGED TO TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 091800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE WHILE VISIBILITY VARIES FROM 6+ MILES
IN FLURRIES DOWN TO 2 MILES DURING HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.

STRONG CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR CLOUD DECKW YIELDING FAIRLY STEADY SNOW SHOWERS.
DIURNAL INFLUENCES WILL STRENGTHEN LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN SOME
SCATTERED AND HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNSET. FINAL MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING THAT WILL BRING
AN END TO MOST SNOW SHOWERS OR AT WORST LEAD TO A FEW REMAINING
FLURRIES. LOW CLOUD DECKS SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA AFTER
101500Z.

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE EXITING TROUGH THE GUSTINESS OF THE WIND WILL END DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TUCEK




000
FXUS63 KIND 091506
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1006 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 952 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO NO CHANGES. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC
CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 20S AND ARE
STILL PROGGED TO TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR KIND 091200Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO REMOVE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION NOT REACHING THAT LOW.
STILL CARRYING 2 MILES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND THIS COULD GO
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR
VSBY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER...ESPECIALLY AT
LAF AND IND.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS AND LAMP AND SREF MVFR PROBABILITIES.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TUCEK




000
FXUS63 KIND 091405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
905 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OCCURRING.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR KIND 091200Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO REMOVE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION NOT REACHING THAT LOW.
STILL CARRYING 2 MILES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND THIS COULD GO
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR
VSBY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER...ESPECIALLY AT
LAF AND IND.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS AND LAMP AND SREF MVFR PROBABILITIES.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TUCEK




000
FXUS63 KIND 091405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
905 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OCCURRING.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR KIND 091200Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO REMOVE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION NOT REACHING THAT LOW.
STILL CARRYING 2 MILES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND THIS COULD GO
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR
VSBY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER...ESPECIALLY AT
LAF AND IND.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS AND LAMP AND SREF MVFR PROBABILITIES.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TUCEK




000
FXUS63 KIND 091405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
905 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OCCURRING.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR KIND 091200Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO REMOVE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION NOT REACHING THAT LOW.
STILL CARRYING 2 MILES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND THIS COULD GO
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR
VSBY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER...ESPECIALLY AT
LAF AND IND.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS AND LAMP AND SREF MVFR PROBABILITIES.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TUCEK




000
FXUS63 KIND 091405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
905 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OCCURRING.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR KIND 091200Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO REMOVE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION NOT REACHING THAT LOW.
STILL CARRYING 2 MILES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND THIS COULD GO
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR
VSBY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER...ESPECIALLY AT
LAF AND IND.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS AND LAMP AND SREF MVFR PROBABILITIES.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TUCEK




000
FXUS63 KIND 091405
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
905 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OCCURRING.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR KIND 091200Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 900 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ONLY CHANGE MADE WAS TO REMOVE CEILINGS BELOW 1000 FT BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS ACROSS THE REGION NOT REACHING THAT LOW.
STILL CARRYING 2 MILES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND THIS COULD GO
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS
TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR
VSBY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER...ESPECIALLY AT
LAF AND IND.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS AND LAMP AND SREF MVFR PROBABILITIES.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TUCEK



000
FXUS63 KIWX 091146
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATE TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE HEAVIEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN
THE STRONGEST BANDS. THEN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LESSEN IN
INTENSITY BUT STILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY.
WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD...THE MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION OF FAR
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG
NOAM BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH
DEEP MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID
ARRIVAL OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN
WI/FAR WRN LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH
IMPACT NAM NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START
OF A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY
FOR LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS
SRN LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE.
THEREAFTER A SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND
FORMS WHILE A THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE
MI COUNTY TARGET. REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY
OF/CONVECTIVE DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO
BRIEFLY PEAKED SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T
TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO
DIMINISH. STILL SLOW DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR
STEADY STATE LAKE INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT
EQL TO MAINTAIN A PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU
AM. TARGETED PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS
TONIGHT AND WED. THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
GREATLY LESSEN OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER
DGZ AND DOWNTREND IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS
HAVE TEMPERED AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT
SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO 12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS
COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST. JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES
INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF
ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION HEIGHTS
LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING
SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN STORE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND
AND SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM
TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE,
BUT STILL PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS FOR SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW
MOISTURE PROFILES AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN
CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BRIEF SNYOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN CONTINUE THIS AM WITH PRIMARILY
FUEL/ALT CRITERIA TO OCNLY LOWER IFR VSBY/CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
INCREASINGLY MORE DEVELOPED LAKE EFFET BANDS FORM AND PRIMARILY
AFFECT KSBN. BY DAYBREAK ANTICIPATE LAKE BANDS TO BE AT/NEAR
PINACLE WITH OCNL LIFR WITHIN HEART OF BANDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 091010
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
510 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OCCURRING.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 510 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT COLD CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
WITHIN ANY SNOW SHOWER...ESPECIALLY AT LAF AND IND. WILL ALSO LIKELY
NEED A TEMPO IFR CEILING AT IND THROUGH 14Z OR SO BASED ON TRENDS
AND LAMP IFR PROBABILITIES.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AS THE BACK END OF THE BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT...HOWEVER PER MODEL RH
TIME SECTIONS AND LAMP AND SREF MVFR PROBABILITIES.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 091006
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
506 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD...THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AND GREATEST
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT REGION
OF FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MULTIPLEX MID/ULVL VORTEX HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART WITH STRONG NOAM
BLOCK AND MULTITUDE OF STRONG DIGS OF UPSTREAM ENERGY. UNTIL
OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL STORM LIFTS NNEWD INTO MARITIMES AND
FINAL 160KT UPSTREAM 3H JETLET OVER SASK DIVES DIVES SWD INTO IA
THIS EVENING THE OVERALL STACKED SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS TO PROVE
DISFAVORABLE FOR LES. STILL MORE SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SHSN WITH DEEP
MOISTURE TO 15KFT TO CONTINUE TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO COVER
SUBADVISORY HAZARDS DUE TO LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS/GROUND ICE WITH SPS
PRODUCT AS NEEDED. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL HAVE RAPID ARRIVAL
OF 8H COLD POOL CURRENTLY IN HOLDING PATTERN ACROSS NWRN WI/FAR WRN
LK SUPR WITHIN CONGESTED FLOW. OUTPUT FROM 1.33KM/HIGH IMPACT NAM
NEST FURTHER CONFIRMS MORE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL AND OTHER
NAM/MULTICOBB MODEL SUGGESTIONS AND POINT TO 21 UTC TUE FOR START OF
A MORE COHESIVE LES EVENT AND START TIME FOR WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR
LES. PER HIGH RES OUTPUT...INITIAL PRIMARY BAND FORMATION ACRS SRN
LAKE MI INTO BERRIEN/NERN LAPORTE LATE AFTERNOON/EVE. THEREAFTER A
SECONDARY MORE NORTHWARD CONVECTIVE ROLL/LES BAND FORMS WHILE A
THIRD BAND FORMS CLOSER TO EAST CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE AND
DROPS SOUTH TAKING ON A KLUD TO NRN ST. JOE MI COUNTY TARGET.
REGARDLESS OF ACTUAL EVOLUTION INTENSITY OF/CONVECTIVE
DEPTH/SUPERSATURATION WITHIN 3KFT DGZ SHOULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY PEAKED
SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE TO TWO INCHES PER HOUR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WED WITH BEST INGREDIENTS OVERLAP AND DELTA T TO 20C. THEREAFTER AS
LOWER PART OF DGZ GOES SUBCLOUD RATES TO DIMINISH. STILL SLOW
DISINTEGRATION OF LES AGGREGATE TROF AND NEAR STEADY STATE LAKE
INDUCED PARAMETERS OF 350-400 J/KG AND 6-7KFT EQL TO MAINTAIN A
PROLONGED EVENT FOR REMAINDER OF WED INTO THU AM. TARGETED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN HEART OF HIGHEST EXPECT ACCUMS TONIGHT AND WED.
THEREAFTER RATES AND SFC WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GREATLY LESSEN
OCCURRENCE. LARGELY OWING TO THE LACK OF A DEEPER DGZ AND DOWNTREND
IN MULTIMODEL AVERAGED COBB METHOD SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE TEMPERED
AMOUNTS OVER PRIOR SOMEWHAT. LONGEVITY OF EVENT SHOULD LEAD TO 6 TO
12 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN BERRIEN/WRN CASS COUNTIES MICHIGAN AND ST.
JOE AND EXTREME NERN LAPORTE COUNTIES INDIANA. MIN WIND CHILLS 5 BLO
TO 5 ABV TONIGHT THROUGH END OF ADVISORY ADDS ADDITIONAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 459 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS LOWER AND WINDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT WAVE
RAPIDLY MOVING SE TOWARDS THE REGION. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE IN
STORE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH TRANSITION BACK TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MORE PRONOUNCED LAKE RESPONSE WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ARCTIC LOW DROPS INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE WEEKEND AND
SENDS TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS NOW SEEM TO BE
IN AGREEMENT ON BULK OF COLDEST AIR STAYING EAST OF HERE, BUT STILL
PLENTY LOW ENOUGH TO END UP WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AGAIN ACROSS
THE AREA...BUT GIVEN CONCERNS AS TO EXACTLY HOW MOISTURE PROFILES
AND TRAJECTORIES WILL SET UP...LITTLE MORE THAN CHC POPS WARRANTED.

WITH TRENDS BEING FURTHER EAST WITH THE COLDER AIR...MOS GUIDANCE
HAS TRIED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE WENT WITH
BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEW SUPERBLEND DATA TO HOLD DOWN
MASSIVE CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DIFFICULT TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT KSBN AS EXACT
LAYOUT OF FORECASTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL CAUSE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH IMPACTS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM ON
PLACEMENT OF BANDS WITH RELATION TO TAF SITES.

ONE BAND WAS MOVING EAST OF KBEH AND BASED ON ESE TRAJECTORY MAY
BYPASS KSBN ENTIRELY. HOWEVER HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
EXPANSION IN COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUES. HAVE
TONED DOWN TAFS IN THAT PERIOD AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. KFWA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO DEAL WITH.

A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 14Z TUES THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z WEDS AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT BRIEFLY WANE.
HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD KICK IN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS BEING SEEN AT KSBN AFTER 2Z AND PERSISTING WELL
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. AT KFWA...HAVE KEPT LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRY MENTION AFTER 14Z WITH TEMPO GROUP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO HANDLE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING
TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE SITE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
     TO 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR INZ003>005.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MIZ077>079.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 090822
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
320 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OCCURRING.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LOWERED CEILINGS TO 1K FEET PER TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

GENERALLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MOVES TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN WITH POCKETS OF IFR BY MID MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LESSENING AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 090813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WINTER WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON CENTRAL INDIANA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF ARCTIC BLASTS WILL
PROVIDE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS A COUPLE OF
TIMES DURING THE WEEK. SNOW SHOWERS WILL END ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AROUND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

EARLY THIS MORNING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH AN UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHEAST. MORE PERSISTENT SNOW BANDS WERE
JUST TO OUR EAST IN OHIO...WHERE MUCH HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS WERE
OCCURRING.

RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
NORTHERN INDIANA THAT SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE OTHER AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN ILLINOIS LOOK TO SLIDE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WILL GO LIKELY POPS THIS MORNING FAR NORTHEAST AND HIGH CHANCE POPS
ELSEWHERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT MORE SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH HEATING.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND A SURFACE TROUGH
LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH. THIS TOO WILL HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA.

SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER INDICATES GREATEST THREAT FOR INTENSE SQUALLS
WILL LIE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW THAT ODDS OF VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS IS LOW.

QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS WELL. EXPECTING...ON AVERAGE...AN INCH
OR LESS 12Z-24Z. THUS WITH THE LOW COVERAGE OF SQUALLS EXPECTED AND
THE LOW QPF AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED AGAINST GOING WITH AN ADVISORY
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND VISIBILITY DOWN
TO AROUND 2 MILES THOUGH. IT IS FEBRUARY IN INDIANA AFTER ALL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE THREATS.

WITH THE CLOUDS AND SNOW AROUND FEEL THAT MOS IS TOO HIGH WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. TRIMMED THEM A BIT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOCUS REMAINS ON SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO USE A BLEND.

ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS INCREASE TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. THUS RAISED
MODEL POPS AND WENT LIKELY FAR NORTHEAST...TO HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...TO LOW CHANCE FAR WEST.
CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO EXIT.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH AGAIN THE THREAT
OF SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONTINUED THE LOWERING OF POPS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOWEVER KEPT CHANCE POPS
ALL DAY FAR NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LAKE SNOW SHOWER THREAT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH EARLY WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
FEEL THAT ANY SNOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...SO CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THEN.

GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO MID
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

GENERALLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MOVES TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN WITH POCKETS OF IFR BY MID MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LESSENING AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 090748
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
WEEK WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT
OF A LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN UNDER A HALF INCH UP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATER IN THE NIGHT THOUGH AS A
500 MB VORT MAX SLIDES INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 20S. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TO UPPER 20S OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER
IS WEAKER AND TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL EVEN WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING. ADDITIONAL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL SQUALLS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITHIN ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING...LOSS OF ANY RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYLIGHT AND WIND
GUSTS PEAKING AT 25 TO 30 MPH...EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MORE OF AN IMPACT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST PLACES THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE
850MB TROWAL SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
CATCH MORE OF A LAKE MICHIGAN FETCH. WILL BRING HIGHER POPS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT OCCASIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPS...TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT/LOW ACCUMULATION SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM...GRADUALLY FOCUSING MORE
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY THAT CARRIES THE MOST POTENTIAL
IMPACT TO TRAVELERS...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF FORCING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPER SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RATIOS AND THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH SUPPORTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW AND DRASTICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 20S...ICY ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE
TOO. THE SPS COVERS THIS WELL...WITH FUTURE SHIFTS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY DETERMINING IF AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY WOULD BE MORE
BENEFICIAL AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY FOCUSING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL AT HOW QUICKLY MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SHUT DOWN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH BACK SIDE ENERGY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH
FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER...STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT
WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST
OF I-65 WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATE DAY. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL 1 TO
3 REMAINS A SOLID CALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE HEAVIER SQUALLS OCCUR...AGAIN MOST
LIKELY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...WENT AT OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 20S TUESDAY...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

BIG MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE A MAJOR HURDLE TO PARTS
OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST INCLUDING POPS AND TEMPERATURES.

VERY FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM. THIS IS CAUSING SIGNIFICANT SHEARING OF ANY PACIFIC WAVE
THAT CRESTS THE UPPER WESTERN RIDGE AND HEADS TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT SAID MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 00Z ECMWF...CONTINUE TO
BRING SOME SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH CONFIDENCE
LOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL SNOW CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THEN...MODELS
AGREE THAT JAMES BAY UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD TO THE
OHIO VALLEY. ARCTIC HIGH WILL THE MOVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE TO
RETURN ON SUNDAY.

THE BIGGEST MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL EFFECT CENTRAL INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. MODELS MOVE A STRONGER WAVE OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND MOVE
IT TO ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE 00Z GFS WAS BRINGING A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS ON MONDAY
WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF HAD THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INDIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE
EURO SOLUTION WOULD BRING DECENT SNOW AMOUNTS TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IF THE GFS VERIFIES. EITHER WAY...WILL LEAVE
SNOW CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY DEPEND A LOT ON
SNOW COVER AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER AND AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. NUDGED
REGIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THAT
PERIOD...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED
TO REBOUND TO CLOSE TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK PER THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

GENERALLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MOVES TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN WITH POCKETS OF IFR BY MID MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LESSENING AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIWX 090550
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1250 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
DURING ANY ONE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT MAY ALLOW AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME THURSDAY MORNING ROLLS
AROUND. ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK
DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SEVERAL VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN ONLY VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW.
AN ELONGATED VORT MAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED IN NATURE AS IT
APPEARS TO TRY AND PHASE WITH VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS BEING SLOWED
SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGING EXTENDING BACK NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LARGELY IN RESPONSE
TO THIS AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SOME CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
BETTER ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST SHEAR IN CLOUD
BEARING LAYER. SNOW RATIOS ALSO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OPTIMAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL OF SOME RIMING TO LESSEN RATIOS. 1 TO 3
INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO GOING GRIDS. SPS ISSUED
EARLIER TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF EARLIER MELTED
PRECIP AND NEW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

H5 LOW CNTR OVR CNTRL LK MI THIS AFTN WILL ROUND SEWD
INTO WRN LK ER BY TUE AFTN. HWVR ERN EXTENT OF INCOMING LL CAA WING
IS DELAYED UNTIL LT PD COINCIDENT W/EVENTUAL UPSTREAM BACK OF LL
FLW. THUS OVERALL LK RESPONSE TONIGHT XPCD TO BE TEPID UNTIL AFT 06Z
WHEN MOST VIGOROUS MSTR FLUX/VERTICAL ASCENT DVLPS ACRS NW CWA.
REGARDLESS INHERENT SNOW BAND DVLPMNT LT TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN
TRANSITORY WHICH SHLD LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY ONE
LOCALE OUTSIDE PERHAPS NE LAPORTE/WRN ST JOE. AT ANY RATE WILL FOREGO
SHRT DURATIONS HEADLINE NEED LT TONIGHT/ERLY TUE AM TO EVENING SHIFT.

OTRWS UPSTREAM MID LVL MSTR PLUME HOLDS WEST ON TUE WHILE LL THERMAL
TROUGH STEADILY GROWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP LIGHT SHSN GOING
THROUGH THE DAY FAR NW HWVR INLAND REACH MUCH IN DOUBT GIVEN DEGREE
OF MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WITHIN MID LVL DRYSLOT AND WILL TEMPER PRIOR
GRIDDED POPS CONSIDERABLY EAST HALF. AS SUCH WILL AGAIN CONT TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD AS MORE COMPELLING PERIOD
LIES BEYOND TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. MANY FAVORABLE FACTORS WILL COME
TOGETHER FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
A LONG FETCH OVER OPEN WATERS INCLUDING PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH WAS ONLY 4 PERCENT ICE COVERED. THIS LONG FETCH
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT/UPPER SUPPORT AND VERY LARGE DELTA T
VALUES FROM 20C TO 25C IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FAVOR HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM NORTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ST
JOSEPH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. A
WINTER HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR THIS SNOW.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BRIEFLY WITH BACKING WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT... ALLOWING
ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND ZERO OR
JUST ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1239 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

DIFFICULT TAFS THROUGH THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT KSBN AS EXACT
LAYOUT OF FORECASTED LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL CAUSE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE HIGH IN SNOW
SHOWERS OCCURRING WITH IMPACTS BUT CONFIDENCE LOW TO MEDIUM ON
PLACEMENT OF BANDS WITH RELATION TO TAF SITES.

ONE BAND WAS MOVING EAST OF KBEH AND BASED ON ESE TRAJECTORY MAY
BYPASS KSBN ENTIRELY. HOWEVER HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE SOME
EXPANSION IN COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TUES. HAVE
TONED DOWN TAFS IN THAT PERIOD AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS. KFWA
SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS TO DEAL WITH.

A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 14Z TUES THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z WEDS AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT BRIEFLY WANE.
HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD KICK IN FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH
GREATEST IMPACTS BEING SEEN AT KSBN AFTER 2Z AND PERSISTING WELL
THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. AT KFWA...HAVE KEPT LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRY MENTION AFTER 14Z WITH TEMPO GROUP TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD TO HANDLE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING
TO MOVE SE TOWARDS THE SITE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 090442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
WEEK WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT
OF A LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN UNDER A HALF INCH UP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATER IN THE NIGHT THOUGH AS A
500 MB VORT MAX SLIDES INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 20S. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TO UPPER 20S OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER
IS WEAKER AND TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL EVEN WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING. ADDITIONAL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL SQUALLS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITHIN ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING...LOSS OF ANY RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYLIGHT AND WIND
GUSTS PEAKING AT 25 TO 30 MPH...EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MORE OF AN IMPACT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST PLACES THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE
850MB TROWAL SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
CATCH MORE OF A LAKE MICHIGAN FETCH. WILL BRING HIGHER POPS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT OCCASIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPS...TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT/LOW ACCUMULATION SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM...GRADUALLY FOCUSING MORE
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY THAT CARRIES THE MOST POTENTIAL
IMPACT TO TRAVELERS...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF FORCING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPER SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RATIOS AND THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH SUPPORTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW AND DRASTICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 20S...ICY ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE
TOO. THE SPS COVERS THIS WELL...WITH FUTURE SHIFTS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY DETERMINING IF AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY WOULD BE MORE
BENEFICIAL AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY FOCUSING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL AT HOW QUICKLY MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SHUT DOWN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH BACK SIDE ENERGY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH
FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER...STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT
WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST
OF I-65 WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATE DAY. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL 1 TO
3 REMAINS A SOLID CALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE HEAVIER SQUALLS OCCUR...AGAIN MOST
LIKELY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...WENT AT OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 20S TUESDAY...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY SHOWING UP IN ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH FEW CHANGES AS THE BLENDED CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE MOST
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY PRETTY HARD WHILE GFS KEEPS BEST FORCING NORTH OF
THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL INDIANA DRY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT THIS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IF IT
EVEN REACHES THAT FAR. FINALLY THE LAST STORM SYSTEM TO ADDRESS
IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. VARIABILITY REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING IS STILL
HIGH AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES ON MONDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

GENERALLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MOVES TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN WITH POCKETS OF IFR BY MID MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LESSENING AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 090442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
WEEK WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT
OF A LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN UNDER A HALF INCH UP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATER IN THE NIGHT THOUGH AS A
500 MB VORT MAX SLIDES INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 20S. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TO UPPER 20S OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER
IS WEAKER AND TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL EVEN WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING. ADDITIONAL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL SQUALLS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITHIN ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING...LOSS OF ANY RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYLIGHT AND WIND
GUSTS PEAKING AT 25 TO 30 MPH...EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MORE OF AN IMPACT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST PLACES THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE
850MB TROWAL SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
CATCH MORE OF A LAKE MICHIGAN FETCH. WILL BRING HIGHER POPS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT OCCASIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPS...TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT/LOW ACCUMULATION SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM...GRADUALLY FOCUSING MORE
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY THAT CARRIES THE MOST POTENTIAL
IMPACT TO TRAVELERS...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF FORCING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPER SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RATIOS AND THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH SUPPORTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW AND DRASTICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 20S...ICY ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE
TOO. THE SPS COVERS THIS WELL...WITH FUTURE SHIFTS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY DETERMINING IF AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY WOULD BE MORE
BENEFICIAL AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY FOCUSING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL AT HOW QUICKLY MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SHUT DOWN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH BACK SIDE ENERGY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH
FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER...STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT
WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST
OF I-65 WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATE DAY. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL 1 TO
3 REMAINS A SOLID CALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE HEAVIER SQUALLS OCCUR...AGAIN MOST
LIKELY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...WENT AT OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 20S TUESDAY...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY SHOWING UP IN ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH FEW CHANGES AS THE BLENDED CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE MOST
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY PRETTY HARD WHILE GFS KEEPS BEST FORCING NORTH OF
THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL INDIANA DRY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT THIS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IF IT
EVEN REACHES THAT FAR. FINALLY THE LAST STORM SYSTEM TO ADDRESS
IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. VARIABILITY REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING IS STILL
HIGH AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES ON MONDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

GENERALLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MOVES TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN WITH POCKETS OF IFR BY MID MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LESSENING AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KIND 090442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
WEEK WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT
OF A LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN UNDER A HALF INCH UP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATER IN THE NIGHT THOUGH AS A
500 MB VORT MAX SLIDES INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 20S. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TO UPPER 20S OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER
IS WEAKER AND TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL EVEN WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING. ADDITIONAL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL SQUALLS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITHIN ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING...LOSS OF ANY RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYLIGHT AND WIND
GUSTS PEAKING AT 25 TO 30 MPH...EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MORE OF AN IMPACT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST PLACES THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE
850MB TROWAL SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
CATCH MORE OF A LAKE MICHIGAN FETCH. WILL BRING HIGHER POPS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT OCCASIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPS...TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT/LOW ACCUMULATION SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM...GRADUALLY FOCUSING MORE
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY THAT CARRIES THE MOST POTENTIAL
IMPACT TO TRAVELERS...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF FORCING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPER SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RATIOS AND THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH SUPPORTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW AND DRASTICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 20S...ICY ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE
TOO. THE SPS COVERS THIS WELL...WITH FUTURE SHIFTS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY DETERMINING IF AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY WOULD BE MORE
BENEFICIAL AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY FOCUSING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL AT HOW QUICKLY MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SHUT DOWN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH BACK SIDE ENERGY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH
FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER...STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT
WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST
OF I-65 WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATE DAY. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL 1 TO
3 REMAINS A SOLID CALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE HEAVIER SQUALLS OCCUR...AGAIN MOST
LIKELY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...WENT AT OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 20S TUESDAY...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY SHOWING UP IN ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH FEW CHANGES AS THE BLENDED CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE MOST
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY PRETTY HARD WHILE GFS KEEPS BEST FORCING NORTH OF
THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL INDIANA DRY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT THIS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IF IT
EVEN REACHES THAT FAR. FINALLY THE LAST STORM SYSTEM TO ADDRESS
IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. VARIABILITY REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING IS STILL
HIGH AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES ON MONDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

GENERALLY MVFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS TUESDAY WITH POCKETS OF IFR WHICH WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SNOW SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN LAKE HURON MOVES TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT MINIMAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN WITH POCKETS OF IFR BY MID MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE DAY WITH SNOW
SHOWERS LESSENING AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING A LITTLE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 090307
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1007 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
WEEK WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 941 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A BIT
OF A LULL IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN UNDER A HALF INCH UP. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH LATER IN THE NIGHT THOUGH AS A
500 MB VORT MAX SLIDES INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 20S. CURRENT TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES TO UPPER 20S OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER
IS WEAKER AND TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL EVEN WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING. ADDITIONAL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL SQUALLS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITHIN ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING...LOSS OF ANY RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYLIGHT AND WIND
GUSTS PEAKING AT 25 TO 30 MPH...EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MORE OF AN IMPACT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST PLACES THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE
850MB TROWAL SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
CATCH MORE OF A LAKE MICHIGAN FETCH. WILL BRING HIGHER POPS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT OCCASIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPS...TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT/LOW ACCUMULATION SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM...GRADUALLY FOCUSING MORE
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY THAT CARRIES THE MOST POTENTIAL
IMPACT TO TRAVELERS...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF FORCING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPER SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RATIOS AND THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH SUPPORTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW AND DRASTICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 20S...ICY ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE
TOO. THE SPS COVERS THIS WELL...WITH FUTURE SHIFTS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY DETERMINING IF AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY WOULD BE MORE
BENEFICIAL AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY FOCUSING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL AT HOW QUICKLY MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SHUT DOWN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH BACK SIDE ENERGY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH
FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER...STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT
WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST
OF I-65 WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATE DAY. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL 1 TO
3 REMAINS A SOLID CALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE HEAVIER SQUALLS OCCUR...AGAIN MOST
LIKELY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...WENT AT OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 20S TUESDAY...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY SHOWING UP IN ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH FEW CHANGES AS THE BLENDED CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE MOST
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY PRETTY HARD WHILE GFS KEEPS BEST FORCING NORTH OF
THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL INDIANA DRY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT THIS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IF IT
EVEN REACHES THAT FAR. FINALLY THE LAST STORM SYSTEM TO ADDRESS
IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. VARIABILITY REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING IS STILL
HIGH AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES ON MONDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
WILL BE THE RULE.  COULD BE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT BY LATE EVENING
AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN TAFS WITH SOME DETERIORATION VERY LATE
TONIGHT.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.  WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN/TDUD
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 090226
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
927 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

AN UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SLOWLY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
MIDWEEK...PRODUCING SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH WINDY AND PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR LATE
WEEK WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. A QUICK MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY
BRING SNOW FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL LARGER STORM SYSTEM
FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SECONDARY COLD FRONT BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SQUALLS CONTINUE DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH OF I-70...BUT NEAR SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID
TO EVEN UPPER 30S ARE MITIGATING IMPACTS. HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF
QUICK SNOW BURSTS TO THE TUNE OF A HALF INCH TO INCH BUT AS SOON
SNOW RATES DIMINISH...SURFACE MELTING COMMENCES IMMEDIATELY WITH
PAVEMENT TEMPS IN THE MID 30S. IN ADDITION...SLEET AND GRAUPEL
HAVE OCCASIONALLY MIXED IN WITH THESE HEAVIER SQUALLS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN BACK INTO THE UPPER 20S
WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING. INTENSITY OF THE SNOW SHOWERS HOWEVER
IS WEAKER AND TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN MINIMAL EVEN WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING. ADDITIONAL AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND OCCASIONAL SQUALLS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN
ASSOCIATION WITHIN ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY ALOFT WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH SURFACE TEMPS BELOW
FREEZING...LOSS OF ANY RADIATIONAL EFFECTS FROM DAYLIGHT AND WIND
GUSTS PEAKING AT 25 TO 30 MPH...EXPECT THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
MORE OF AN IMPACT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANY SNOW ACCUMS SHOULD
REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST PLACES THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS...ANTICIPATE A DECREASE IN
COVERAGE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AS THE
850MB TROWAL SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
CATCH MORE OF A LAKE MICHIGAN FETCH. WILL BRING HIGHER POPS BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE AS A RESULT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT OCCASIONAL TRAVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPS...TOOK A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO BOTTOM OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH IMPACT/LOW ACCUMULATION SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM...GRADUALLY FOCUSING MORE
OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE THE DAY THAT CARRIES THE MOST POTENTIAL
IMPACT TO TRAVELERS...AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ONCE AGAIN BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND
ANOTHER SURGE OF FORCING ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE PRESENCE OF A DEEPER SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITHIN THE COLDER
AIRMASS...THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER RATIOS AND THE CONTINUED
FAVORABLE LAKE FETCH SUPPORTS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING
SNOW AND DRASTICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS.
WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING IN THE 20S...ICY ROADS WILL BE AN ISSUE
TOO. THE SPS COVERS THIS WELL...WITH FUTURE SHIFTS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY DETERMINING IF AN IMPACT-BASED ADVISORY WOULD BE MORE
BENEFICIAL AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY FOCUSING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. REMAIN A BIT
SKEPTICAL AT HOW QUICKLY MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO SHUT DOWN SNOW
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH BACK SIDE ENERGY BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
WAVE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH
FORCING ALOFT IS WEAKER...STILL EXPECT MOISTURE TO BE SQUEEZED OUT
WITH HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. CONTINUED CHANCE POPS MAINLY EAST
OF I-65 WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW BEFORE IT ENDS BY LATE DAY. DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A GENERAL 1 TO
3 REMAINS A SOLID CALL...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. DO ANTICIPATE THERE WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE HEAVIER SQUALLS OCCUR...AGAIN MOST
LIKELY FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPS...WENT AT OR JUST BELOW GUIDANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 20S TUESDAY...AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE TEENS
WEDNESDAY. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

A DECENT AMOUNT OF VARIABILITY SHOWING UP IN ENSEMBLES AND
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS FOR THE LONG TERM. ACCEPTED INITIALIZATION
WITH FEW CHANGES AS THE BLENDED CONSENSUS SHOULD PROVIDE THE MOST
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLUTION. CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS HITTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM ON FRIDAY PRETTY HARD WHILE GFS KEEPS BEST FORCING NORTH OF
THE AREA AND ESSENTIALLY LEAVES CENTRAL INDIANA DRY. BOTH
MODELS SHOW SOME LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT THIS WOULD ONLY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES IF IT
EVEN REACHES THAT FAR. FINALLY THE LAST STORM SYSTEM TO ADDRESS
IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY BEYOND AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. VARIABILITY REGARDING STRENGTH AND TIMING IS STILL
HIGH AND THUS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
CHANCES ON MONDAY LOOK GOOD AT THIS TIME.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 09/0300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 927 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR WITH HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
WILL BE THE RULE.  COULD BE A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT BY LATE EVENING
AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN TAFS WITH SOME DETERIORATION VERY LATE
TONIGHT.

WE WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.  WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
NORTHWEST 10 TO 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIWX 090149
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
849 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AMOUNTS
DURING ANY ONE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT BUT THE LONG
DURATION OF THE EVENT MAY ALLOW AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO SEE
BETWEEN 6 AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE TIME THURSDAY MORNING ROLLS
AROUND. ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS WEEK
DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWESTERN OHIO.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SEVERAL VORT LOBES ROTATING THROUGH OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN ONLY VERY SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF UPPER LEVEL LOW.
AN ELONGATED VORT MAX ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED IN NATURE AS IT
APPEARS TO TRY AND PHASE WITH VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS BEING SLOWED
SOMEWHAT BY LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGING EXTENDING BACK NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...LARGELY IN RESPONSE
TO THIS AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND SOME CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION/STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/LAKE ENHANCEMENT. WEAK
LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH
BETTER ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST SHEAR IN CLOUD
BEARING LAYER. SNOW RATIOS ALSO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OPTIMAL
OVERNIGHT GIVEN POTENTIAL OF SOME RIMING TO LESSEN RATIOS. 1 TO 3
INCH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO GOING GRIDS. SPS ISSUED
EARLIER TO HIGHLIGHT SLICK ROADS THAT HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO SOME RE-FREEZING OF EARLIER MELTED
PRECIP AND NEW LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

H5 LOW CNTR OVR CNTRL LK MI THIS AFTN WILL ROUND SEWD
INTO WRN LK ER BY TUE AFTN. HWVR ERN EXTENT OF INCOMING LL CAA WING
IS DELAYED UNTIL LT PD COINCIDENT W/EVENTUAL UPSTREAM BACK OF LL
FLW. THUS OVERALL LK RESPONSE TONIGHT XPCD TO BE TEPID UNTIL AFT 06Z
WHEN MOST VIGOROUS MSTR FLUX/VERTICAL ASCENT DVLPS ACRS NW CWA.
REGARDLESS INHERENT SNOW BAND DVLPMNT LT TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN
TRANSITORY WHICH SHLD LIMIT POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY ONE
LOCALE OUTSIDE PERHAPS NE LAPORTE/WRN ST JOE. AT ANY RATE WILL FOREGO
SHRT DURATIONS HEADLINE NEED LT TONIGHT/ERLY TUE AM TO EVENING SHIFT.

OTRWS UPSTREAM MID LVL MSTR PLUME HOLDS WEST ON TUE WHILE LL THERMAL
TROUGH STEADILY GROWS. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP LIGHT SHSN GOING
THROUGH THE DAY FAR NW HWVR INLAND REACH MUCH IN DOUBT GIVEN DEGREE
OF MID LVL SUBSIDENCE WITHIN MID LVL DRYSLOT AND WILL TEMPER PRIOR
GRIDDED POPS CONSIDERABLY EAST HALF. AS SUCH WILL AGAIN CONT TO HOLD
OFF ON ANY POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHTS THIS PD AS MORE COMPELLING PERIOD
LIES BEYOND TUE NIGHT AND WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
BE ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE INCREASING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. MANY FAVORABLE FACTORS WILL COME
TOGETHER FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INCLUDING
A LONG FETCH OVER OPEN WATERS INCLUDING PRECONDITIONING FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR WHICH WAS ONLY 4 PERCENT ICE COVERED. THIS LONG FETCH
COMBINED WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT/UPPER SUPPORT AND VERY LARGE DELTA T
VALUES FROM 20C TO 25C IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE FAVOR HEAVY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW FROM NORTHERN LAPORTE COUNTY AND NORTHERN ST
JOSEPH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN INCLUDING BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES. A
WINTER HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT FOR THIS SNOW.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL BRIEFLY WITH BACKING WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT... ALLOWING
ONLY A SHORT BREAK IN THE SNOW.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AS A SECOND SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES COLDER FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND ZERO OR
JUST ABOVE ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH NEGATIVE UPPER
HEIGHT ANOMALY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. ELONGATED VORT
MAX EXTENDING NORTH OF THIS UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL PROVIDE CONTINUED FOCUS FOR SYNOPTIC FORCING THROUGH
THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE GREATER LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME BUILDING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT GIVEN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WRAPPING BACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/SOME CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION WILL ALLOW FOR
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC IFR
VSBYS AT KSBN. AFTER EARLY-MID MORNING TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS FROM SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISHES SOME WITH WEAKER FORCING AND
STILL MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS. GREATER IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THIS PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL FRONT/TROUGH
DROP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BRINGING GREATER POTENTIAL OF
MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI


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