Home > Products > State Listing > Indiana Data
Latest:
 AFDIND |  AFDIWX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIND 280830
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A welcome break from the recent heat and humidity can be expected
across central Indiana in the next few days, as much cooler and
drier air works into the area. The next chance for precipitation
will come late Thursday night and into the weekend as a frontal
boundary works back into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Although upper flow across the area will be cyclonic today, low
level subsidence should be increasing as surface high pressure
gradually builds into the area. Thus, expect what shallow
instability will exist to result in only some broken cumulus cloud
this afternoon.

Temperatures will be significantly cooler than in recent days,
although a good thermal gradient can be expected across the area,
ranging from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s south. Consensus
numbers handled this well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Surface high pressure will dominate the area through the vast
majority of the short term period, with dry, mild, and pleasant
weather expected.

A frontal system will approach the area late in the period, and
will require some low pops in the northwest late Thursday night.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout, although
did bump max temps up slightly each day as they appeared a bit too
cool with ample sunshine in mid summer.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana on Friday. The front will then
stall out over the Tennessee Valley the remainder of the weekend as
high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes. However, the models
are hinting that one or more upper disturbances will be moving in
from the Plains and allow the front to lift back to the northeast
early next week. The Regional blend suggests thunderstorm chances
over all of central Indiana Friday and dry north and small pops
south the remainder of the weekend. Then, the blend brings back pops
to all of the area by Monday. The blend also starts off with
slightly below normal temperatures becoming normal or slightly above
by next Monday. This all looks reasonable based on good model
agreement with the expected synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280900Z IND TAF Update)...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

No changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Dewpoints still rather high over southern Indiana at this time, so expecting
areas of MVFR visibility restrictions in light fog in the KHUF/KBMG areas for
a few hours either side of sunrise. Light wind and some lower dewpoints
moving in from the north should keep restrictions above IFR for the most
part.

Otherwise, some increase in cloud cover 040-050 expected in the KLAF area
towards sunrise. Low level cold advection looks rather strong on Tuesday, so
VFR ceilings around 040 should develop around the midday hours.

Light surface winds overnight will become 320-350 degrees after sunrise
Tuesday with occasional surface gusts 18-20 kts by 281800Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 280830
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
430 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A welcome break from the recent heat and humidity can be expected
across central Indiana in the next few days, as much cooler and
drier air works into the area. The next chance for precipitation
will come late Thursday night and into the weekend as a frontal
boundary works back into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Although upper flow across the area will be cyclonic today, low
level subsidence should be increasing as surface high pressure
gradually builds into the area. Thus, expect what shallow
instability will exist to result in only some broken cumulus cloud
this afternoon.

Temperatures will be significantly cooler than in recent days,
although a good thermal gradient can be expected across the area,
ranging from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s south. Consensus
numbers handled this well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Surface high pressure will dominate the area through the vast
majority of the short term period, with dry, mild, and pleasant
weather expected.

A frontal system will approach the area late in the period, and
will require some low pops in the northwest late Thursday night.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout, although
did bump max temps up slightly each day as they appeared a bit too
cool with ample sunshine in mid summer.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana on Friday. The front will then
stall out over the Tennessee Valley the remainder of the weekend as
high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes. However, the models
are hinting that one or more upper disturbances will be moving in
from the Plains and allow the front to lift back to the northeast
early next week. The Regional blend suggests thunderstorm chances
over all of central Indiana Friday and dry north and small pops
south the remainder of the weekend. Then, the blend brings back pops
to all of the area by Monday. The blend also starts off with
slightly below normal temperatures becoming normal or slightly above
by next Monday. This all looks reasonable based on good model
agreement with the expected synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280900Z IND TAF Update)...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

No changes needed to the TAF.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Dewpoints still rather high over southern Indiana at this time, so expecting
areas of MVFR visibility restrictions in light fog in the KHUF/KBMG areas for
a few hours either side of sunrise. Light wind and some lower dewpoints
moving in from the north should keep restrictions above IFR for the most
part.

Otherwise, some increase in cloud cover 040-050 expected in the KLAF area
towards sunrise. Low level cold advection looks rather strong on Tuesday, so
VFR ceilings around 040 should develop around the midday hours.

Light surface winds overnight will become 320-350 degrees after sunrise
Tuesday with occasional surface gusts 18-20 kts by 281800Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS/MK



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIWX 280812
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
412 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 AM EDT tue Jun 28 2016

Cooler air will continue to move into the area today accompanied
by post frontal clouds. Highs today will only be around 70 to the
mid 70s. Skies will clear tonight as a ridge of high pressure
moves into the area. Lows tonight will drop well down into the
50s, with even some upper 40s north. Skies will be sunny Wednesday
with pleasant conditions. Highs will be in the upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A cold front was over lower Michigan near Grand Rapids early this
morning and was moving south. The front will move across the
forecast area early this morning and bring much cooler air with
highs today only in the low to mid 70s. Lakeshore hazards of
dangerous swimming conditions along the southeast shore of Lake
Michigan are expected today as winds increase behind the front. Post
frontal clouds will move across the area causing skies to be mostly
cloudy today. Skies will then clear tonight, setting the stage for a
chilly night with lows over most areas around 50.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 357 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The cool airmass over the region will modify a little Wednesday with
highs reaching around 76 degrees. There will be another chilly night
with lows dipping well down into the 50s by Thursday morning. A
strong shortwave trof will move south and bring another chance for
showers and possibly a storm Thursday night. Moisture will be
limited and mid level lapse rates will remain stable and should help
limit convective development. Have favored the model blend trend
into the weekend of slightly cooler temperatures with a northeast
to east low level flow. Highs Saturday should be in the 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strato-cu along h85 trof movg se across the grtlks will
overspread the terminals this morning. Generally low vfr cigs
expected though brief mvfr also psbl. Brisk nw winds expected
today, diminishing this eve as skies clear.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 280755
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
355 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...

The Synopsis, Near Term, and Short Term sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A welcome break from the recent heat and humidity can be expected
across central Indiana in the next few days, as much cooler and
drier air works into the area. The next chance for precipitation
will come late Thursday night and into the weekend as a frontal
boundary works back into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Although upper flow across the area will be cyclonic today, low
level subsidence should be increasing as surface high pressure
gradually builds into the area. Thus, expect what shallow
instability will exist to result in only some broken cumulus cloud
this afternoon.

Temperatures will be significantly cooler than in recent days,
although a good thermal gradient can be expected across the area,
ranging from the mid 70s north to the mid 80s south. Consensus
numbers handled this well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Issued at 355 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Surface high pressure will dominate the area through the vast
majority of the short term period, with dry, mild, and pleasant
weather expected.

A frontal system will approach the area late in the period, and
will require some low pops in the northwest late Thursday night.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable throughout, although
did bump max temps up slightly each day as they appeared a bit too
cool with ample sunshine in mid summer.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana on Friday. The front will then
stall out over the Tennessee Valley the remainder of the weekend as
high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes. However, the models
are hinting that one or more upper disturbances will be moving in
from the Plains and allow the front to lift back to the northeast
early next week. The Regional blend suggests thunderstorm chances
over all of central Indiana Friday and dry north and small pops
south the remainder of the weekend. Then, the blend brings back pops
to all of the area by Monday. The blend also starts off with
slightly below normal temperatures becoming normal or slightly above
by next Monday. This all looks reasonable based on good model
agreement with the expected synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Dewpoints still rather high over southern Indiana at this time, so expecting
areas of MVFR visibility restrictions in light fog in the KHUF/KBMG areas for
a few hours either side of sunrise. Light wind and some lower dewpoints
moving in from the north should keep restrictions above IFR for the most
part.

Otherwise, some increase in cloud cover 040-050 expected in the KLAF area
towards sunrise. Low level cold advection looks rather strong on Tuesday, so
VFR ceilings around 040 should develop around the midday hours.

Light surface winds overnight will become 320-350 degrees after sunrise
Tuesday with occasional surface gusts 18-20 kts by 281800Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 280719
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana on Friday. The front will then
stall out over the Tennessee Valley the remainder of the weekend as
high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes. However, the models
are hinting that one or more upper disturbances will be moving in
from the Plains and allow the front to lift back to the northeast
early next week. The Regional blend suggests thunderstorm chances
over all of central Indiana Friday and dry north and small pops
south the remainder of the weekend. Then, the blend brings back pops
to all of the area by Monday. The blend also starts off with
slightly below normal temperatures becoming normal or slightly above
by next Monday. This all looks reasonable based on good model
agreement with the expected synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Dewpoints still rather high over southern Indiana at this time, so expecting
areas of MVFR visibility restrictions in light fog in the KHUF/KBMG areas for
a few hours either side of sunrise. Light wind and some lower dewpoints
moving in from the north should keep restrictions above IFR for the most
part.

Otherwise, some increase in cloud cover 040-050 expected in the KLAF area
towards sunrise. Low level cold advection looks rather strong on Tuesday, so
VFR ceilings around 040 should develop around the midday hours.

Light surface winds overnight will become 320-350 degrees after sunrise
Tuesday with occasional surface gusts 18-20 kts by 281800Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 280719
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
318 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that a cold front will drop
southeast across central Indiana on Friday. The front will then
stall out over the Tennessee Valley the remainder of the weekend as
high pressure builds in over the Great Lakes. However, the models
are hinting that one or more upper disturbances will be moving in
from the Plains and allow the front to lift back to the northeast
early next week. The Regional blend suggests thunderstorm chances
over all of central Indiana Friday and dry north and small pops
south the remainder of the weekend. Then, the blend brings back pops
to all of the area by Monday. The blend also starts off with
slightly below normal temperatures becoming normal or slightly above
by next Monday. This all looks reasonable based on good model
agreement with the expected synoptic pattern.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Dewpoints still rather high over southern Indiana at this time, so expecting
areas of MVFR visibility restrictions in light fog in the KHUF/KBMG areas for
a few hours either side of sunrise. Light wind and some lower dewpoints
moving in from the north should keep restrictions above IFR for the most
part.

Otherwise, some increase in cloud cover 040-050 expected in the KLAF area
towards sunrise. Low level cold advection looks rather strong on Tuesday, so
VFR ceilings around 040 should develop around the midday hours.

Light surface winds overnight will become 320-350 degrees after sunrise
Tuesday with occasional surface gusts 18-20 kts by 281800Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIWX 280501
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
101 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 AM EDT tue Jun 28 2016

Cooler air will continue to move into the area tonight behind a
cold front. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s...with highs on Tuesday only in the low to mid 70s. The rest
of the work week into next weekend will remain mainly dry with
temperatures averaging slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Cold front has just about cleared southern portions of the
forecast area. Latest radar data, suggesting a few showers trying
to develop across Van Wert/Wells county. Given high based nature
of this development, it might be a more a virga situation at this
time. An isolated shower will remain possible across the extreme
southeast through about 0100Z or 0130Z, but coverage and
probability at any one specific point still appears too low for
mentionable PoPs. Updated forecast will be sent around 0030Z to
refresh late afternoon wording and perhaps slow southward post-
frontal clouds a bit, but otherwise no notable changes to the
going forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Secondary sfc cold front now just entering the southern Great Lakes
will push through the local area late this afternoon and early
evening. There has been just enough residual near surface moisture
and ample insolation (temps in upper 80s) to push SBCAPE values near
1000 j/kg (centered near the US-24 corridor). Overall weak
convergence/forcing with shallow sfc portion of front and dearth of
deeper layer moisture precludes a mentionable PoP for mid-late
afternoon. However, if any isolated showers would fire it would most
likely occur along/south of the US 30/24 corridors in IN/OH 19-22z.

Tonight into early Tuesday with feature the main surge of cooler air
as trailing mid-level trough axis from parent wave lifting into
Quebec swings through the Great Lakes region. There should be a
period of post-frontal BKN/OVC stratocu as associated moisture
pivots through later tonight into the Tuesday. Dry otherwise with
high temps on Tuesday significantly cooler in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A quiet weather pattern will take residence mid week through early
next week as the flow pattern transitions to a quasi northwest
flow regime. This will for the most part keep an active
instability/theta-e gradient well south-southwest of the region
through the period. The only real threat for a brief period of
rain/thunder will come Thursday Night into Friday as a vort lobe
rotates southeast on southern fringe of a larger scale negative
height anomaly centered near the Quebec/Ontario. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to remain near to slightly below average with low
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strato-cu along h85 trof movg se across the grtlks will
overspread the terminals this morning. Generally low vfr cigs
expected though brief mvfr also psbl. Brisk nw winds expected
today, diminishing this eve as skies clear.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIWX 280501
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
101 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 100 AM EDT tue Jun 28 2016

Cooler air will continue to move into the area tonight behind a
cold front. Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid
60s...with highs on Tuesday only in the low to mid 70s. The rest
of the work week into next weekend will remain mainly dry with
temperatures averaging slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Cold front has just about cleared southern portions of the
forecast area. Latest radar data, suggesting a few showers trying
to develop across Van Wert/Wells county. Given high based nature
of this development, it might be a more a virga situation at this
time. An isolated shower will remain possible across the extreme
southeast through about 0100Z or 0130Z, but coverage and
probability at any one specific point still appears too low for
mentionable PoPs. Updated forecast will be sent around 0030Z to
refresh late afternoon wording and perhaps slow southward post-
frontal clouds a bit, but otherwise no notable changes to the
going forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Secondary sfc cold front now just entering the southern Great Lakes
will push through the local area late this afternoon and early
evening. There has been just enough residual near surface moisture
and ample insolation (temps in upper 80s) to push SBCAPE values near
1000 j/kg (centered near the US-24 corridor). Overall weak
convergence/forcing with shallow sfc portion of front and dearth of
deeper layer moisture precludes a mentionable PoP for mid-late
afternoon. However, if any isolated showers would fire it would most
likely occur along/south of the US 30/24 corridors in IN/OH 19-22z.

Tonight into early Tuesday with feature the main surge of cooler air
as trailing mid-level trough axis from parent wave lifting into
Quebec swings through the Great Lakes region. There should be a
period of post-frontal BKN/OVC stratocu as associated moisture
pivots through later tonight into the Tuesday. Dry otherwise with
high temps on Tuesday significantly cooler in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A quiet weather pattern will take residence mid week through early
next week as the flow pattern transitions to a quasi northwest
flow regime. This will for the most part keep an active
instability/theta-e gradient well south-southwest of the region
through the period. The only real threat for a brief period of
rain/thunder will come Thursday Night into Friday as a vort lobe
rotates southeast on southern fringe of a larger scale negative
height anomaly centered near the Quebec/Ontario. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to remain near to slightly below average with low
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Strato-cu along h85 trof movg se across the grtlks will
overspread the terminals this morning. Generally low vfr cigs
expected though brief mvfr also psbl. Brisk nw winds expected
today, diminishing this eve as skies clear.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 280400
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1200 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Dewpoints still rather high over southern Indiana at this time, so expecting
areas of MVFR visibility restrictions in light fog in the KHUF/KBMG areas for
a few hours either side of sunrise. Light wind and some lower dewpoints
moving in from the north should keep restrictions above IFR for the most
part.

Otherwise, some increase in cloud cover 040-050 expected in the KLAF area
towards sunrise. Low level cold advection looks rather strong on Tuesday, so
VFR ceilings around 040 should develop around the midday hours.

Light surface winds overnight will become 320-350 degrees after sunrise
Tuesday with occasional surface gusts 18-20 kts by 281800Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 280400
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1200 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1200 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Dewpoints still rather high over southern Indiana at this time, so expecting
areas of MVFR visibility restrictions in light fog in the KHUF/KBMG areas for
a few hours either side of sunrise. Light wind and some lower dewpoints
moving in from the north should keep restrictions above IFR for the most
part.

Otherwise, some increase in cloud cover 040-050 expected in the KLAF area
towards sunrise. Low level cold advection looks rather strong on Tuesday, so
VFR ceilings around 040 should develop around the midday hours.

Light surface winds overnight will become 320-350 degrees after sunrise
Tuesday with occasional surface gusts 18-20 kts by 281800Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 280225
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1023 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280300Z KIND TAF Update)...
Issued at 1023 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Appears crossover temperatures will get close to being reached during
the pre dawn hours of Tuesday, so areas of MVFR visibility restrictions
in light fog are possible after about 280900Z.

Otherwise, no significant cloud expected tonight. Surface wind 290-320
degrees at 6-9 kts early this evening will become light after dark.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 280225
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1023 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280300Z KIND TAF Update)...
Issued at 1023 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Appears crossover temperatures will get close to being reached during
the pre dawn hours of Tuesday, so areas of MVFR visibility restrictions
in light fog are possible after about 280900Z.

Otherwise, no significant cloud expected tonight. Surface wind 290-320
degrees at 6-9 kts early this evening will become light after dark.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 280156
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Appears crossover temperatures will get close to being reached during
the pre dawn hours of Tuesday, so areas of MVFR visibility restrictions
in light fog are possible after about 280900Z.

Otherwise, no significant cloud expected tonight. Surface wind 290-320
degrees at 6-9 kts early this evening will become light after dark.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 280156
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 956 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Isolated convection formed along an approaching cold front in
northeast Indiana earlier this evening. This convection just missed
the forecast area and is now in western Ohio. Doesn`t look like any
additional convection is developing with the front at the moment, and
the loss of heating will help stop anything from developing later.
Thus will continue with a dry forecast tonight.

Otherwise just tweaked sky grids to reflect the clouds from the
isolated convection and some high clouds south. Remainder of
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion follows...

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Appears crossover temperatures will get close to being reached during
the pre dawn hours of Tuesday, so areas of MVFR visibility restrictions
in light fog are possible after about 280900Z.

Otherwise, no significant cloud expected tonight. Surface wind 290-320
degrees at 6-9 kts early this evening will become light after dark.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIWX 280016
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
816 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will swing through tonight bringing much cooler air
in for Tuesday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 50s to mid
60s...with highs on Tuesday only reaching the low to mid 70s. The
rest of the work week into next weekend will remain mainly dry
with temperatures averaging slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Cold front has just about cleared southern portions of the
forecast area. Latest radar data, suggesting a few showers trying
to develop across Van Wert/Wells county. Given high based nature
of this development, it might be a more a virga situation at this
time. An isolated shower will remain possible across the extreme
southeast through about 0100Z or 0130Z, but coverage and
probability at any one specific point still appears too low for
mentionable PoPs. Updated forecast will be sent around 0030Z to
refresh late afternoon wording and perhaps slow southward post-
frontal clouds a bit, but otherwise no notable changes to the
going forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Secondary sfc cold front now just entering the southern Great Lakes
will push through the local area late this afternoon and early
evening. There has been just enough residual near surface moisture
and ample insolation (temps in upper 80s) to push SBCAPE values near
1000 j/kg (centered near the US-24 corridor). Overall weak
convergence/forcing with shallow sfc portion of front and dearth of
deeper layer moisture precludes a mentionable PoP for mid-late
afternoon. However, if any isolated showers would fire it would most
likely occur along/south of the US 30/24 corridors in IN/OH 19-22z.

Tonight into early Tuesday with feature the main surge of cooler air
as trailing mid-level trough axis from parent wave lifting into
Quebec swings through the Great Lakes region. There should be a
period of post-frontal BKN/OVC stratocu as associated moisture
pivots through later tonight into the Tuesday. Dry otherwise with
high temps on Tuesday significantly cooler in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A quiet weather pattern will take residence mid week through early
next week as the flow pattern transitions to a quasi northwest
flow regime. This will for the most part keep an active
instability/theta-e gradient well south-southwest of the region
through the period. The only real threat for a brief period of
rain/thunder will come Thursday Night into Friday as a vort lobe
rotates southeast on southern fringe of a larger scale negative
height anomaly centered near the Quebec/Ontario. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to remain near to slightly below average with low
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Drier low level air will continue to advect southward across the
area this evening behind a cold front. A few showers appear to be
trying to develop along this front, but any additional
development is expected to remain southeast of KFWA. Northwest
post-frontal winds of 10 to 15 knots will subside to around 5
knots after 02Z, with diurnal mixing increasing winds back into
the 10 to 15 knot range for Tuesday afternoon, with a few gusts to
20 knots possible. Only minor tweak was to slightly delay timing
of post-frontal MVFR stratocu a few hours, with best chance of
MVFR stratocu in the 10Z-17Z timeframe before bases mix back up to
VFR levels.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIWX 280016
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
816 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will swing through tonight bringing much cooler air
in for Tuesday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 50s to mid
60s...with highs on Tuesday only reaching the low to mid 70s. The
rest of the work week into next weekend will remain mainly dry
with temperatures averaging slightly below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Cold front has just about cleared southern portions of the
forecast area. Latest radar data, suggesting a few showers trying
to develop across Van Wert/Wells county. Given high based nature
of this development, it might be a more a virga situation at this
time. An isolated shower will remain possible across the extreme
southeast through about 0100Z or 0130Z, but coverage and
probability at any one specific point still appears too low for
mentionable PoPs. Updated forecast will be sent around 0030Z to
refresh late afternoon wording and perhaps slow southward post-
frontal clouds a bit, but otherwise no notable changes to the
going forecast anticipated at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Secondary sfc cold front now just entering the southern Great Lakes
will push through the local area late this afternoon and early
evening. There has been just enough residual near surface moisture
and ample insolation (temps in upper 80s) to push SBCAPE values near
1000 j/kg (centered near the US-24 corridor). Overall weak
convergence/forcing with shallow sfc portion of front and dearth of
deeper layer moisture precludes a mentionable PoP for mid-late
afternoon. However, if any isolated showers would fire it would most
likely occur along/south of the US 30/24 corridors in IN/OH 19-22z.

Tonight into early Tuesday with feature the main surge of cooler air
as trailing mid-level trough axis from parent wave lifting into
Quebec swings through the Great Lakes region. There should be a
period of post-frontal BKN/OVC stratocu as associated moisture
pivots through later tonight into the Tuesday. Dry otherwise with
high temps on Tuesday significantly cooler in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A quiet weather pattern will take residence mid week through early
next week as the flow pattern transitions to a quasi northwest
flow regime. This will for the most part keep an active
instability/theta-e gradient well south-southwest of the region
through the period. The only real threat for a brief period of
rain/thunder will come Thursday Night into Friday as a vort lobe
rotates southeast on southern fringe of a larger scale negative
height anomaly centered near the Quebec/Ontario. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to remain near to slightly below average with low
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 809 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Drier low level air will continue to advect southward across the
area this evening behind a cold front. A few showers appear to be
trying to develop along this front, but any additional
development is expected to remain southeast of KFWA. Northwest
post-frontal winds of 10 to 15 knots will subside to around 5
knots after 02Z, with diurnal mixing increasing winds back into
the 10 to 15 knot range for Tuesday afternoon, with a few gusts to
20 knots possible. Only minor tweak was to slightly delay timing
of post-frontal MVFR stratocu a few hours, with best chance of
MVFR stratocu in the 10Z-17Z timeframe before bases mix back up to
VFR levels.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 AM CDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for INZ003.

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 AM EDT Tuesday through late
     Tuesday night for MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 272306
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
705 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Appears crossover temperatures will get close to being reached during
the pre dawn hours of Tuesday, so areas of MVFR visibility restrictions
in light fog are possible after about 280900Z.

Otherwise, no significant cloud expected tonight. Surface wind 290-320
degrees at 6-9 kts early this evening will become light after dark.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 272306
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
705 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 280000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Appears crossover temperatures will get close to being reached during
the pre dawn hours of Tuesday, so areas of MVFR visibility restrictions
in light fog are possible after about 280900Z.

Otherwise, no significant cloud expected tonight. Surface wind 290-320
degrees at 6-9 kts early this evening will become light after dark.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 272021
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
420 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.


&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 272100Z KIND TAF Update)...

Issued at 420 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

No significant changes made to the forecast at this time. Previous
discussion follows.

Dry air arriving behind a front will cause mostly unrestricted
conditions. Fog may locally produce MVFR visibilities around dawn
Tuesday. Scattered to broken cumulus are likely by midday tomorrow
as cooler air moves in aloft. Bases should be at VFR heights.

Winds are going to stay north to northwest less than 10 knots.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 271915
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Synopsis...near term and short term sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.


&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 271800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Dry air arriving behind a front will cause mostly unrestricted
conditions. Fog may locally produce MVFR visibilities around dawn
Tuesday. Scattered to broken cumulus are likely by midday tomorrow
as cooler air moves in aloft. Bases should be at VFR heights.

Winds are going to stay north to northwest less than 10 knots.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KIND 271915
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Synopsis...near term and short term sections have been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A secondary but dry cold front will move across Indiana tonight and
cooler air will finally arrive by Tuesday.  It will be quite cool
Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough digs into the great lakes
and St. Lawrence valley.  Dry weather will be the rule through
Thursday as high pressure over the upper midwest builds into the great
lakes.

A weak cold front will bring a chance of thunderstorms by Friday into
the first half of next weekend.  Then dry and slightly warmer weather
will occur early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Clear skies were the rule over northern and central sections this
afternoon...while a few clouds were occurring over far southern Indiana.
A secondary but dry cold front over the southern great lakes will move
south across our region tonight.

Tonight will be clear and cooler with some clouds spreading into northern
sections towards morning.  Went close to a MOS blend on temperatures with
lows in the lower 60s over northwest sections and the middle or upper 60s
central and south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...
Issued at 315 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Main focus will be temperatures as cool high pressure over the
upper midwest builds into the great lakes.  Models indicate 850 MB
temperatures will range from +9 over northern sections to about
+15 degrees south Tuesday. This is about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than what
they are today.

In addition models indicate partly cloudy conditions over north and
central sections as clouds behind the cold front moves in and an
upper trough digs into the eastern great lakes.  This will result in
highs Tuesday ranging from the middle 70s over northern sections to
lower and middle 70s south.  Clearing skies and good radiational cooling
will occur Tuesday night with lows in the 50s.

Models indicate mostly clear skies Wednesday as high pressure dominates
our weather followed by increasing clouds Thursday.  The NAM brings
precipitation chances to our far northwest late Thursday.  But this seems
too quick based on other models which keeps all precipitation father
northwest until late Thursday night.

850 MB temperatures will be around +10 celsius Wednesday...warming
to +13 to +15 celsius Thursday.  Raised highs a degree or two with lots of
sunshine Wednesday and some warm advection Thursday.   Anyways went with
highs in the upper 70s to around 80 Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday.
Lows Wednesday night will be in the middle to upper 50s which is near
a MOS blend.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...
Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.


&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 271800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Dry air arriving behind a front will cause mostly unrestricted
conditions. Fog may locally produce MVFR visibilities around dawn
Tuesday. Scattered to broken cumulus are likely by midday tomorrow
as cooler air moves in aloft. Bases should be at VFR heights.

Winds are going to stay north to northwest less than 10 knots.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271835
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
235 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will swing through tonight bringing much cooler air
in for Tuesday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 50s to mid
60s...with highs on Tuesday only reaching the low to mid 70s. The
rest of the work week into next weekend will remain mainly dry
with temperatures averaging slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Secondary sfc cold front now just entering the southern Great Lakes
will push through the local area late this afternoon and early
evening. There has been just enough residual near surface moisture
and ample insolation (temps in upper 80s) to push SBCAPE values near
1000 j/kg (centered near the US-24 corridor). Overall weak
convergence/forcing with shallow sfc portion of front and dearth of
deeper layer moisture precludes a mentionable PoP for mid-late
afternoon. However, if any isolated showers would fire it would most
likely occur along/south of the US 30/24 corridors in IN/OH 19-22z.

Tonight into early Tuesday with feature the main surge of cooler air
as trailing mid-level trough axis from parent wave lifting into
Quebec swings through the Great Lakes region. There should be a
period of post-frontal BKN/OVC stratocu as associated moisture
pivots through later tonight into the Tuesday. Dry otherwise with
high temps on Tuesday significantly cooler in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A quiet weather pattern will take residence mid week through early
next week as the flow pattern transitions to a quasi northwest
flow regime. This will for the most part keep an active
instability/theta-e gradient well south-southwest of the region
through the period. The only real threat for a brief period of
rain/thunder will come Thursday Night into Friday as a vort lobe
rotates southeast on southern fringe of a larger scale negative
height anomaly centered near the Quebec/Ontario. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to remain near to slightly below average with low
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The rest of the afternoon will feature Dry/VFR conditions with
west winds 8-14 knots. Winds will veer more nnw tonight-Tuesday
behind a secondary front expected to clear northern Indiana early
this evening. Post-frontal stratocu in high MVFR/low VFR range
will then likely funnel in later tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Steinwedel


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271835
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
235 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A cold front will swing through tonight bringing much cooler air
in for Tuesday. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 50s to mid
60s...with highs on Tuesday only reaching the low to mid 70s. The
rest of the work week into next weekend will remain mainly dry
with temperatures averaging slightly below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Secondary sfc cold front now just entering the southern Great Lakes
will push through the local area late this afternoon and early
evening. There has been just enough residual near surface moisture
and ample insolation (temps in upper 80s) to push SBCAPE values near
1000 j/kg (centered near the US-24 corridor). Overall weak
convergence/forcing with shallow sfc portion of front and dearth of
deeper layer moisture precludes a mentionable PoP for mid-late
afternoon. However, if any isolated showers would fire it would most
likely occur along/south of the US 30/24 corridors in IN/OH 19-22z.

Tonight into early Tuesday with feature the main surge of cooler air
as trailing mid-level trough axis from parent wave lifting into
Quebec swings through the Great Lakes region. There should be a
period of post-frontal BKN/OVC stratocu as associated moisture
pivots through later tonight into the Tuesday. Dry otherwise with
high temps on Tuesday significantly cooler in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A quiet weather pattern will take residence mid week through early
next week as the flow pattern transitions to a quasi northwest
flow regime. This will for the most part keep an active
instability/theta-e gradient well south-southwest of the region
through the period. The only real threat for a brief period of
rain/thunder will come Thursday Night into Friday as a vort lobe
rotates southeast on southern fringe of a larger scale negative
height anomaly centered near the Quebec/Ontario. Otherwise, expect
temperatures to remain near to slightly below average with low
humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The rest of the afternoon will feature Dry/VFR conditions with
west winds 8-14 knots. Winds will veer more nnw tonight-Tuesday
behind a secondary front expected to clear northern Indiana early
this evening. Post-frontal stratocu in high MVFR/low VFR range
will then likely funnel in later tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Steinwedel


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 271739
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
139 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.Update...Satellite indicated partly cloudy skies over southern sections
and mostly clear elsewhere. Clouds will continue from the north as drier
air spreads in.   Models indicate highs will be close to 90 most areas this
afternoon as the cooler air is confined north of a secondary cold front which
will not reach central Indiana until tonight.  Current forecasted Highs still
look OK and no other updates are needed at this time.

Portion of previous near term discussion follows...High pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...

Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.


&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 271800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Dry air arriving behind a front will cause mostly unrestricted
conditions. Fog may locally produce MVFR visibilities around dawn
Tuesday. Scattered to broken cumulus are likely by midday tomorrow
as cooler air moves in aloft. Bases should be at VFR heights.

Winds are going to stay north to northwest less than 10 knots.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KIND 271739
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
139 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.Update...Satellite indicated partly cloudy skies over southern sections
and mostly clear elsewhere. Clouds will continue from the north as drier
air spreads in.   Models indicate highs will be close to 90 most areas this
afternoon as the cooler air is confined north of a secondary cold front which
will not reach central Indiana until tonight.  Current forecasted Highs still
look OK and no other updates are needed at this time.

Portion of previous near term discussion follows...High pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Monday)...

Issued at 140 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The initialization from Region will be used with very high
confidence through Saturday, and slightly reduced confidence
thereafter.

Agreement between the GFS and the European model is good with a well
defined pattern that should be easy to forecast. This boosts
confidence, especially early on.

A front nears the area late in the weekend. So far in the future,
this inevitably makes the forecast more difficult and cuts
confidence.


&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 271800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Dry air arriving behind a front will cause mostly unrestricted
conditions. Fog may locally produce MVFR visibilities around dawn
Tuesday. Scattered to broken cumulus are likely by midday tomorrow
as cooler air moves in aloft. Bases should be at VFR heights.

Winds are going to stay north to northwest less than 10 knots.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271647
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1247 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A hot, dry, and mainly sunny afternoon can be expected before a
secondary cold front swings through tonight bringing cooler air in
for Tuesday. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to near 90
degrees, with lows tonight into the upper 50s to mid 60s. A much
cooler airmass on Tuesday will only allow afternoon temperatures
to reach the 70s. The rest of the work week into next weekend will
remain mainly dry with temperatures averaging slightly below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Showers and storms had pushed well southeast of the area overnight.
Areas of light fog along with patchy dense fog had formed behind the
showers and storms over the forecast area. Upper air soundings and
model soundings show very dry air spreading over the area. The fog
will mix out rapidly after sunrise followed by decreasing humidity
during the day. A strong cold front for late June will move across
the region tonight. The airmass will be too dry to support showers,
so kept the forecast dry. Much cooler and drier air move across the
area tonight with lows dropping to around 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Much cooler air will be spreading over the area Tuesday. Highs
Tuesday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today. Lakeshore
hazards along the southeast shore of Lake Michigan are likely
Tuesday as winds increase behind the front. A series of short wave
trofs will move southeast out of Canada this week and amplify the
long wave trof over the eastern CONUS. Another cold front should
pass through the area Friday and bring a chance for showers.
Temperatures should be below normal this weekend with a cool
northeast to east flow. The ongoing highs Sunday around 80 may be
too warm and may need to be lowered.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The rest of the afternoon will feature Dry/VFR conditions with
west winds 8-14 knots. Winds will veer more nnw tonight-Tuesday
behind a secondary front expected to clear northern Indiana early
this evening. Post-frontal stratocu in high MVFR/low VFR range
will then likely funnel in later tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271647
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1247 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A hot, dry, and mainly sunny afternoon can be expected before a
secondary cold front swings through tonight bringing cooler air in
for Tuesday. Highs today will reach the upper 80s to near 90
degrees, with lows tonight into the upper 50s to mid 60s. A much
cooler airmass on Tuesday will only allow afternoon temperatures
to reach the 70s. The rest of the work week into next weekend will
remain mainly dry with temperatures averaging slightly below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Showers and storms had pushed well southeast of the area overnight.
Areas of light fog along with patchy dense fog had formed behind the
showers and storms over the forecast area. Upper air soundings and
model soundings show very dry air spreading over the area. The fog
will mix out rapidly after sunrise followed by decreasing humidity
during the day. A strong cold front for late June will move across
the region tonight. The airmass will be too dry to support showers,
so kept the forecast dry. Much cooler and drier air move across the
area tonight with lows dropping to around 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Much cooler air will be spreading over the area Tuesday. Highs
Tuesday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today. Lakeshore
hazards along the southeast shore of Lake Michigan are likely
Tuesday as winds increase behind the front. A series of short wave
trofs will move southeast out of Canada this week and amplify the
long wave trof over the eastern CONUS. Another cold front should
pass through the area Friday and bring a chance for showers.
Temperatures should be below normal this weekend with a cool
northeast to east flow. The ongoing highs Sunday around 80 may be
too warm and may need to be lowered.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

The rest of the afternoon will feature Dry/VFR conditions with
west winds 8-14 knots. Winds will veer more nnw tonight-Tuesday
behind a secondary front expected to clear northern Indiana early
this evening. Post-frontal stratocu in high MVFR/low VFR range
will then likely funnel in later tonight into Tuesday morning.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 271646
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1246 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.Update...Satellite indicated partly cloudy skies over southern sections
and mostly clear elsewhere. Clouds will continue from the north as drier
air spreads in.   Models indicate highs will be close to 90 most areas this
afternoon as the cooler air is confined north of a secondary cold front which
will not reach central Indiana until tonight.  Current forecasted Highs still
look OK and no other updates are needed at this time.

Portion of previous near term discussion follows...High pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Guidance suggests a generally cyclonic upper flow over the area
during the long term period, with a frontal zone dropping into the
area and then becoming quasistationary to our south over the weekend.

Will need thunderstorm chances with the boundary as it passes
through and then along our southern area during much of the weekend
nearest the boundary.

Temperatures through the period should generally be near to slightly
below normal, and blended initialization handled that relatively
well with few minor tweaks required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 271800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1246 PM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Dry air arriving behind a front will cause mostly unrestricted
conditions. Fog may locally produce MVFR visibilities around dawn
Tuesday. Scattered to broken cumulus are likely by midday tomorrow
as cooler air moves in aloft. Bases should be at VFR heights.

Winds are going to stay north to northwest less than 10 knots.


&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JK




000
FXUS63 KIND 271416
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1016 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.Update...Satellite indicated partly cloudy skies over southern sections
and mostly clear elsewhere. Clouds will continue from the north as drier
air spreads in.   Models indicate highs will be close to 90 most areas this
afternoon as the cooler air is confined north of a secondary cold front which
will not reach central Indiana until tonight.  Current forecasted Highs still
look OK and no other updates are needed at this time.

Portion of previous near term discussion follows...High pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Guidance suggests a generally cyclonic upper flow over the area
during the long term period, with a frontal zone dropping into the
area and then becoming quasistationary to our south over the weekend.

Will need thunderstorm chances with the boundary as it passes
through and then along our southern area during much of the weekend
nearest the boundary.

Temperatures through the period should generally be near to slightly
below normal, and blended initialization handled that relatively
well with few minor tweaks required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for 271500Z TAF update)...

Issued at 1017 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

VFR has become widespread as expected. Ceilings and visibilities will
be unrestricted the rest of the day. There should be scattered
afternoon cumulus.

May see restrictions in fog again tonight at the outlying sites, but
there is great uncertainty. In the interest of brevity will leave to
future TAF packages.

Winds will be below 10kt through the period and may be variable
at times, but will trend northwesterly.



&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JN/JK




000
FXUS63 KIND 271350
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
950 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Near term for the rest of today has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 950 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.Update...Satellite indicated partly cloudy skies over southern sections
and mostly clear elsewhere. Clouds will continue from the north as drier
air spreads in.   Models indicate highs will be close to 90 most areas this
afternoon as the cooler air is confined north of a secondary cold front which
will not reach central Indiana until tonight.  Current forecasted Highs still
look OK and no other updates are needed at this time.

Portion of previous near term discussion follows...High pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Guidance suggests a generally cyclonic upper flow over the area
during the long term period, with a frontal zone dropping into the
area and then becoming quasistationary to our south over the weekend.

Will need thunderstorm chances with the boundary as it passes
through and then along our southern area during much of the weekend
nearest the boundary.

Temperatures through the period should generally be near to slightly
below normal, and blended initialization handled that relatively
well with few minor tweaks required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 27/12Z TAFs)...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

LIFR conditions developed overnight at the outlying sites which
received much more rain than IND. Some FEW-SCT cloud below 1000 feet
has developed at IND but it appears the ceilings should remain west
of IND except for brief periods. May include a TEMPO at IND for this.

These conditions will gradually improve as the morning wears on, and
all sites should be VFR by late morning/midday.

May see some restrictions in fog redevelop again tonight at the
outlying sites, but there is great uncertainty here and in the
interest of brevity will leave to future TAF packages.

Winds will be below 10kt throughout the period and may be variable
at times, but will generally trend more northwesterly through the
period.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/JH
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 271043
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
643 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Drier air will overspread the area today. It will remain warm with Highs
in upper 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will move through the
area tonight, resulting in much cooler temperatures Tuesday with
highs 70 to 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Showers and storms had pushed well southeast of the area overnight.
Areas of light fog along with patchy dense fog had formed behind the
showers and storms over the forecast area. Upper air soundings and
model soundings show very dry air spreading over the area. The fog
will mix out rapidly after sunrise followed by decreasing humidity
during the day. A strong cold front for late June will move across
the region tonight. The airmass will be too dry to support showers,
so kept the forecast dry. Much cooler and drier air move across the
area tonight with lows dropping to around 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Much cooler air will be spreading over the area Tuesday. Highs
Tuesday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today. Lakeshore
hazards along the southeast shore of Lake Michigan are likely
Tuesday as winds increase behind the front. A series of short wave
trofs will move southeast out of Canada this week and amplify the
long wave trof over the eastern CONUS. Another cold front should
pass through the area Friday and bring a chance for showers.
Temperatures should be below normal this weekend with a cool
northeast to east flow. The ongoing highs Sunday around 80 may be
too warm and may need to be lowered.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Drier air overspreading nrn IN from the west should result in
rapidly improving flight conditions at fwa this morning. VFR
expected there by 14z and continuing across the area through
tonight. A strato cu deck with low vfr/high mvfr cigs is expected
to overspread the area tonight behind a cdfnt and impact the
terminals toward the end of the period.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 271037 CCA
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
636 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The weather looks to be quiet today except for a few lingering
showers over our south central counties through 12z and perhaps some
brief fog and or low stratus. Otherwise, high pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Guidance suggests a generally cyclonic upper flow over the area
during the long term period, with a frontal zone dropping into the
area and then becoming quasistationary to our south over the weekend.

Will need thunderstorm chances with the boundary as it passes
through and then along our southern area during much of the weekend
nearest the boundary.

Temperatures through the period should generally be near to slightly
below normal, and blended initialization handled that relatively
well with few minor tweaks required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 27/12Z TAFs)...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

LIFR conditions developed overnight at the outlying sites which
received much more rain than IND. Some FEW-SCT cloud below 1000 feet
has developed at IND but it appears the ceilings should remain west
of IND except for brief periods. May include a TEMPO at IND for this.

These conditions will gradually improve as the morning wears on, and
all sites should be VFR by late morning/midday.

May see some restrictions in fog redevelop again tonight at the
outlying sites, but there is great uncertainty here and in the
interest of brevity will leave to future TAF packages.

Winds will be below 10kt throughout the period and may be variable
at times, but will generally trend more northwesterly through the
period.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 271036
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
636 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The weather looks to be quiet today except for a few lingering
showers over our south central counties through 12z and perhaps some
brief fog and or low stratus. Otherwise, high pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Guidance suggests a generally cyclonic upper flow over the area
during the long term period, with a frontal zone dropping into the
area and then becoming quasistationary to our south over the weekend.

Will need thunderstorm chances with the boundary as it passes
through and then along our southern area during much of the weekend
nearest the boundary.

Temperatures through the period should generally be near to slightly
below normal, and blended initialization handled that relatively
well with few minor tweaks required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 27/12Z TAFs)...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

LIFR conditions developed overnight at the outlying sites which
received much more rain than IND. Some FEW-SCT cloud below 1000 feet
has developed at IND but it appears the ceilings should remain west
of IND.

These conditions will gradually improve as the morning wears on, and
all sites should be VFR by late morning/midday.

May see some restrictions in fog redevelop again tonight at the
outlying sites, but there is great uncertainty here and in the
interest of brevity will leave to future TAF packages.

Winds will be below 10kt throughout the period and may be variable
at times, but will generally trend more northwesterly through the
period.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270837
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
437 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Light winds and moist low levels have caused areas of fog to form
overnight. The fog will lift rapidly this morning as skies become
sunny. Drier air will overspread the area today. Highs will be in
upper 80s to lower 90s. A cold front will move through the area
tonight, resulting in much cooler temperatures Tuesday with highs
around 70 to 75.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Showers and storms had pushed well southeast of the area overnight.
Areas of light fog along with patchy dense fog had formed behind the
showers and storms over the forecast area. Upper air soundings and
model soundings show very dry air spreading over the area. The fog
will mix out rapidly after sunrise followed by decreasing humidity
during the day. A strong cold front for late June will move across
the region tonight. The airmass will be too dry to support showers,
so kept the forecast dry. Much cooler and drier air move across the
area tonight with lows dropping to around 60 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 429 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Much cooler air will be spreading over the area Tuesday. Highs
Tuesday will be 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today. Lakeshore
hazards along the southeast shore of Lake Michigan are likely
Tuesday as winds increase behind the front. A series of short wave
trofs will move southeast out of Canada this week and amplify the
long wave trof over the eastern CONUS. Another cold front should
pass through the area Friday and bring a chance for showers.
Temperatures should be below normal this weekend with a cool
northeast to east flow. The ongoing highs Sunday around 80 may be
too warm and may need to be lowered.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist airmass remains in place this morning, bolstered by
widespread rainfall this aftn. Light wly winds advecting drier
air into the area but not fast enough to prevent patchy low
cigs/vsbys. Fcst tempo ifr conditions early this morning at both
terminals. After daybreak, diurnal mixing and contd dry air
advection should result in vfr conditions for the remainder of the
taf period.


&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 270812
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
412 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The weather looks to be quiet today except for a few lingering
showers over our south central counties through 12z and perhaps some
brief fog and or low stratus. Otherwise, high pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Guidance suggests a generally cyclonic upper flow over the area
during the long term period, with a frontal zone dropping into the
area and then becoming quasistationary to our south over the weekend.

Will need thunderstorm chances with the boundary as it passes
through and then along our southern area during much of the weekend
nearest the boundary.

Temperatures through the period should generally be near to slightly
below normal, and blended initialization handled that relatively
well with few minor tweaks required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 27/09Z TAF update)...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Have added prevailing IFR or worse ceilings at LAF/HUF/BMG as these
have developed and become persistent. Will likely see fluctuations
in conditions near daybreak as often happens. Previous discussion
follows.

Issued at 1230 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Area of rain, with occasional embedded lightning strikes, has been slowly
diminishing in coverage over the past couple of hours. Appears most of
the precipitation will be off to the east of the terminals, except for
possibly KBMG, by issuance time. Any lingering activity in the vicinity of
KBMG should be over by 270700Z.

Some IFR ceilings have developed by are limited in scope thus far.
Will insert on a TEMPO basis and monitor next few hours to see if it
expands. Some concern for more widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings to
develop during the early morning hours of Monday given the fairly
widespread rainfall and light gradient. Model guidance not very
bullish on this idea, so will keep out of the forecast for now and
monitor trends overnight.

Otherwise, ceilings above 050 will gradually thin out during the morning hours
on Monday. Generally light surface winds overnight will become 310-340 degrees
at 7-10 kts by late morning Monday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 270812
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
412 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The weather looks to be quiet today except for a few lingering
showers over our south central counties through 12z and perhaps some
brief fog and or low stratus. Otherwise, high pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Guidance suggests a generally cyclonic upper flow over the area
during the long term period, with a frontal zone dropping into the
area and then becoming quasistationary to our south over the weekend.

Will need thunderstorm chances with the boundary as it passes
through and then along our southern area during much of the weekend
nearest the boundary.

Temperatures through the period should generally be near to slightly
below normal, and blended initialization handled that relatively
well with few minor tweaks required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 27/09Z TAF update)...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Have added prevailing IFR or worse ceilings at LAF/HUF/BMG as these
have developed and become persistent. Will likely see fluctuations
in conditions near daybreak as often happens. Previous discussion
follows.

Issued at 1230 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Area of rain, with occasional embedded lightning strikes, has been slowly
diminishing in coverage over the past couple of hours. Appears most of
the precipitation will be off to the east of the terminals, except for
possibly KBMG, by issuance time. Any lingering activity in the vicinity of
KBMG should be over by 270700Z.

Some IFR ceilings have developed by are limited in scope thus far.
Will insert on a TEMPO basis and monitor next few hours to see if it
expands. Some concern for more widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings to
develop during the early morning hours of Monday given the fairly
widespread rainfall and light gradient. Model guidance not very
bullish on this idea, so will keep out of the forecast for now and
monitor trends overnight.

Otherwise, ceilings above 050 will gradually thin out during the morning hours
on Monday. Generally light surface winds overnight will become 310-340 degrees
at 7-10 kts by late morning Monday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 270746
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

The Synosis, Near Term and Short Term sections have been updated
below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A weak and diffuse cold front, over south central Indiana, will
settle south of the Ohio River this morning bringing and end to the
showers. Dry and cooler weather will follows as an upper trough
dives southeast across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday and
Canadian high pressure builds in. However, a weak cold front could
bring a few thunderstorms to all or parts of central Indiana late
in the week and early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The weather looks to be quiet today except for a few lingering
showers over our south central counties through 12z and perhaps some
brief fog and or low stratus. Otherwise, high pressure and drier air
filtering in should bring a decrease in clouds from northwest to
southeast. The real cool air should hold off until Tuesday as the
upper trough swings back sending a dry re-inforcing cold front
through the area.

Plenty of sunshine and 850 millibar temperatures in the upper teens
suggest afternoon highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. That said,
it will not be as uncomfortable as yesterday as dew points drop to
the lower 60s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday night/...
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The main focus for the short term will be on temperatures as cool
surface high pressure should allow for dry and cool conditions
through the period.

Models are in good agreement and thus will use a blend. Dry column
and high pressure will allow for clear skies tonight with afternoon
dew points supporting overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s. Will
see increasing clouds on Tuesday in the wake of the upper trough
diving southeast across the Great Lakes. In addition, this will
force a re-inforcing cold front to drop south across the area and
result in below normal temperatures. 850 millibar temperatures
should drop near 10 degrees C and all this suggests that the blend
highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s south look reasonable.
Should see clearing skies Tuesday night with the cooler temperatures
expected to remain through Wednesday night. Nighttime temperatures
in the mid 50s should provide nicesleepingweather.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Guidance suggests a generally cyclonic upper flow over the area
during the long term period, with a frontal zone dropping into the
area and then becoming quasistationary to our south over the weekend.

Will need thunderstorm chances with the boundary as it passes
through and then along our southern area during much of the weekend
nearest the boundary.

Temperatures through the period should generally be near to slightly
below normal, and blended initialization handled that relatively
well with few minor tweaks required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 270600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Area of rain, with occasional embedded lightning strikes, has been slowly
diminishing in coverage over the past couple of hours. Appears most of
the precipitation will be off to the east of the terminals, except for
possibly KBMG, by issuance time. Any lingering activity in the vicinity of
KBMG should be over by 270700Z.

Some IFR ceilings have developed by are limited in scope thus far.
Will insert on a TEMPO basis and monitor next few hours to see if it
expands. Some concern for more widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings to
develop during the early morning hours of Monday given the fairly
widespread rainfall and light gradient. Model guidance not very
bullish on this idea, so will keep out of the forecast for now and
monitor trends overnight.

Otherwise, ceilings above 050 will gradually thin out during the morning hours
on Monday. Generally light surface winds overnight will become 310-340 degrees
at 7-10 kts by late morning Monday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 270709
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

The Long Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A cold front over northwest Indiana and north central Illinois will
move southeast across the rest of Indiana overnight bringing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms.  A few remaining thunderstorms far south
early Monday will end as drier air spread south across Indiana.

It will be dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes and eastern U.S. High pressure will bring
mostly dry weather during the long term period. But a weak cold front
may produce a chance of Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Upped PoPs across the southwestern forecast area where rain and
thunderstorms are widespread. Otherwise tweaked them across the
remainder of the area as needed. There will still be a downward
trend as outflow pushes out of the area and instability weakens.

Lowered low temperatures in some areas as well thanks to rain cooled
air.

Thunderstorms in the south still have the potential for wind gusts
over 40 mph and torrential rainfall for the next couple of hours.

Previous discussion follows...


Radar indicated scattered thunderstorms have developed across east
central Indiana as well as well as from southern Lake Michigan to
east central Illinois.   This 2nd area of thunderstorms were ahead of
a weak cold front which will move southeast across the rest of our state
tonight.  LAPS indicates capes in excess of 3000 J/KG and CIN was close
to zero.   Rapid refresh model indicates thunderstorms will become
more numerous towards evening as this front pushes into the northwest part
of our forecast area next few hours.  By evening these thunderstorms should
reach the central Part of our region.  Will go likely POPS central and south
this evening and then gradually end chance of thunderstorms central and south
late tonight as front moves on to the south.

Even though the airmass is very unstable...Wind shear is no more than 10 knots
and we are only expecting a marginal risk of severe storms this evening.  Locally
heavy rain could occur this evening as precipitable water is around 2 inches and
winds aloft are light.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the
middle and upper 60s northwest to around 70 or the lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A few storms could linger into our far south early Monday morning.
Otherwise...it will be dry and turning cooler next few days.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus next few days. Even though the
first cold front will be through Monday...models hint at a dry secondary cold
which will not arrive until Monday.  850 MB temperatures Monday will be almost
as warm as they are today and with lots sunshine Monday...Highs will once again
be close to 90 Monday.  Went between MET and MAV numbers Monday.

This secondary cold front will move through Monday night and cooler air will
overspread our region as 850 MB temperatures go from +19 to +20 celsius Monday
to around +10 Celsius Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model ensembles indicate partly
cloudy conditions will spread into north and central sections Tuesday as the
upper trough digs into the eastern U.S.  High pressure will bring clearing
skies Tuesday night and it will be mostly sunny Wednesday.

The MAV highs seem too cool while the MET numbers may be a bit too warm.   Will
split the difference.  Anyways went with highs in the middle to upper 60s over
northern sections Tuesday and Wednesday to around 80 or the lower 80s in the south.
Went with lows in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and in the 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
Issued at 310 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Guidance suggests a generally cyclonic upper flow over the area
during the long term period, with a frontal zone dropping into the
area and then becoming quasistationary to our south over the weekend.

Will need thunderstorm chances with the boundary as it passes
through and then along our southern area during much of the weekend
nearest the boundary.

Temperatures through the period should generally be near to slightly
below normal, and blended initialization handled that relatively
well with few minor tweaks required.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 270600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Area of rain, with occasional embedded lightning strikes, has been slowly
diminishing in coverage over the past couple of hours. Appears most of
the precipitation will be off to the east of the terminals, except for
possibly KBMG, by issuance time. Any lingering activity in the vicinity of
KBMG should be over by 270700Z.

Some IFR ceilings have developed by are limited in scope thus far.
Will insert on a TEMPO basis and monitor next few hours to see if it
expands. Some concern for more widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings to
develop during the early morning hours of Monday given the fairly
widespread rainfall and light gradient. Model guidance not very
bullish on this idea, so will keep out of the forecast for now and
monitor trends overnight.

Otherwise, ceilings above 050 will gradually thin out during the morning hours
on Monday. Generally light surface winds overnight will become 310-340 degrees
at 7-10 kts by late morning Monday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270647
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
247 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Light winds and moist low levels will result in patchy fog across
the area early this morning with low temperatures in the middle
and upper 60s. Drier air will overspread the area today. Highs
will be in upper 80s and lower 90s. A cold front will move
through the area tonight, resulting in much cooler temperatures
Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The threat of isolated severe weather has ended for local area as
more vigorous convection has dropped south/southeast of the area.
Cold frontal passage this evening will result in drier low level
air advecting southeast into the area late evening/overnight with
eventual diminishing cloud trend overnight. Did maintain scattered
showers/iso thunder pops into late evening across the southeast as
low level convergent axis lingers for a few more hours. Otherwise,
quiet weather for the overnight hours and no major changes to
previous grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main focus into the late afternoon and early evening will remain on
convective trends. Very moist airmass in place (sfc dewpoints
into the low 70s and PWATS near 2 inches) definitely sufficient to
generate convection along a pre-frontal outflow already east of I-
69. Excellent recovery/some clearing behind this outflow
into northwest Indiana where tight instability gradient is
setting up (SBCAPE values pushing 3000-3500 j/kg toward the US-30
corridor as of 18z). This should be enough to allow more
substantial/deep convection to fire along system cold front mid-
late afternoon, then weakening east-southeast into Ohio later this
aftn/evening. Initiation is most likely across northwest Indiana-
southwest Lower MI 19-21z, then clustering southeast into areas
along and southeast of the US-24 corridor 22-02z. Stronger
multicell clusters may contain an isolated wind threat given low
shear and moderate/high CAPE profile across mainly Indiana.

Drier air will overspread post-frontal tonight into Monday as
height falls through Ontario and the Northern Great Lakes helps
shunt deeper moisture south toward the OH/TN Valleys. Temps aloft
will trend a touch cooler tomorrow but this will be offset at the
sfc by dry air/full sun and deeper mixing which will likely support
highs near 90F in most locations. A secondary cold front will
drop into the area Monday afternoon/evening on leading edge of
main trailing mid-level trough axis. There could be just enough
lingering boundary layer moisture/destabilization to force a few
showers/storms along this feature once it drops into northwest
Indiana mid-late afternoon. Per collaboration and due to a very
limited moisture supply opted to hold with a dry (10 PoP) fcst.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A quiet weather pattern will set up during the long term period as
a cool northwest flow regime takes hold on the region. While at the
surface high pressure will mainly be in control keeping much of the
periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist airmass remains in place this morning, bolstered by
widespread rainfall this aftn. Light wly winds advecting drier
air into the area but not fast enough to prevent patchy low
cigs/vsbys. Fcst tempo ifr conditions early this morning at both
terminals. After daybreak, diurnal mixing and contd dry air
advection should result in vfr conditions for the remainder of the
taf period.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...jt
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270647
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
247 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Light winds and moist low levels will result in patchy fog across
the area early this morning with low temperatures in the middle
and upper 60s. Drier air will overspread the area today. Highs
will be in upper 80s and lower 90s. A cold front will move
through the area tonight, resulting in much cooler temperatures
Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The threat of isolated severe weather has ended for local area as
more vigorous convection has dropped south/southeast of the area.
Cold frontal passage this evening will result in drier low level
air advecting southeast into the area late evening/overnight with
eventual diminishing cloud trend overnight. Did maintain scattered
showers/iso thunder pops into late evening across the southeast as
low level convergent axis lingers for a few more hours. Otherwise,
quiet weather for the overnight hours and no major changes to
previous grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main focus into the late afternoon and early evening will remain on
convective trends. Very moist airmass in place (sfc dewpoints
into the low 70s and PWATS near 2 inches) definitely sufficient to
generate convection along a pre-frontal outflow already east of I-
69. Excellent recovery/some clearing behind this outflow
into northwest Indiana where tight instability gradient is
setting up (SBCAPE values pushing 3000-3500 j/kg toward the US-30
corridor as of 18z). This should be enough to allow more
substantial/deep convection to fire along system cold front mid-
late afternoon, then weakening east-southeast into Ohio later this
aftn/evening. Initiation is most likely across northwest Indiana-
southwest Lower MI 19-21z, then clustering southeast into areas
along and southeast of the US-24 corridor 22-02z. Stronger
multicell clusters may contain an isolated wind threat given low
shear and moderate/high CAPE profile across mainly Indiana.

Drier air will overspread post-frontal tonight into Monday as
height falls through Ontario and the Northern Great Lakes helps
shunt deeper moisture south toward the OH/TN Valleys. Temps aloft
will trend a touch cooler tomorrow but this will be offset at the
sfc by dry air/full sun and deeper mixing which will likely support
highs near 90F in most locations. A secondary cold front will
drop into the area Monday afternoon/evening on leading edge of
main trailing mid-level trough axis. There could be just enough
lingering boundary layer moisture/destabilization to force a few
showers/storms along this feature once it drops into northwest
Indiana mid-late afternoon. Per collaboration and due to a very
limited moisture supply opted to hold with a dry (10 PoP) fcst.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A quiet weather pattern will set up during the long term period as
a cool northwest flow regime takes hold on the region. While at the
surface high pressure will mainly be in control keeping much of the
periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Moist airmass remains in place this morning, bolstered by
widespread rainfall this aftn. Light wly winds advecting drier
air into the area but not fast enough to prevent patchy low
cigs/vsbys. Fcst tempo ifr conditions early this morning at both
terminals. After daybreak, diurnal mixing and contd dry air
advection should result in vfr conditions for the remainder of the
taf period.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...jt
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 270519
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
119 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A cold front over northwest Indiana and north central Illinois will
move southeast across the rest of Indiana overnight bringing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms.  A few remaining thunderstorms far south
early Monday will end as drier air spread south across Indiana.

It will be dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes and eastern U.S. High pressure will bring
mostly dry weather during the long term period. But a weak cold front
may produce a chance of Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Upped PoPs across the southwestern forecast area where rain and
thunderstorms are widespread. Otherwise tweaked them across the
remainder of the area as needed. There will still be a downward
trend as outflow pushes out of the area and instability weakens.

Lowered low temperatures in some areas as well thanks to rain cooled
air.

Thunderstorms in the south still have the potential for wind gusts
over 40 mph and torrential rainfall for the next couple of hours.

Previous discussion follows...


Radar indicated scattered thunderstorms have developed across east
central Indiana as well as well as from southern Lake Michigan to
east central Illinois.   This 2nd area of thunderstorms were ahead of
a weak cold front which will move southeast across the rest of our state
tonight.  LAPS indicates capes in excess of 3000 J/KG and CIN was close
to zero.   Rapid refresh model indicates thunderstorms will become
more numerous towards evening as this front pushes into the northwest part
of our forecast area next few hours.  By evening these thunderstorms should
reach the central Part of our region.  Will go likely POPS central and south
this evening and then gradually end chance of thunderstorms central and south
late tonight as front moves on to the south.

Even though the airmass is very unstable...Wind shear is no more than 10 knots
and we are only expecting a marginal risk of severe storms this evening.  Locally
heavy rain could occur this evening as precipitable water is around 2 inches and
winds aloft are light.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the
middle and upper 60s northwest to around 70 or the lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A few storms could linger into our far south early Monday morning.
Otherwise...it will be dry and turning cooler next few days.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus next few days. Even though the
first cold front will be through Monday...models hint at a dry secondary cold
which will not arrive until Monday.  850 MB temperatures Monday will be almost
as warm as they are today and with lots sunshine Monday...Highs will once again
be close to 90 Monday.  Went between MET and MAV numbers Monday.

This secondary cold front will move through Monday night and cooler air will
overspread our region as 850 MB temperatures go from +19 to +20 celsius Monday
to around +10 Celsius Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model ensembles indicate partly
cloudy conditions will spread into north and central sections Tuesday as the
upper trough digs into the eastern U.S.  High pressure will bring clearing
skies Tuesday night and it will be mostly sunny Wednesday.

The MAV highs seem too cool while the MET numbers may be a bit too warm.   Will
split the difference.  Anyways went with highs in the middle to upper 60s over
northern sections Tuesday and Wednesday to around 80 or the lower 80s in the south.
Went with lows in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and in the 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent upper trough will remain across the eastern half of the
country through much of the extended with ridging aloft focused over
the Intermountain west. This will result in continued cooler weather
than that recently experienced over central Indiana...with
temperatures generally near or below normal for early July.

High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday as it
drifts through the Ohio Valley. Extended models remain relatively
consistent on a cold front tracking through the region Friday into
Saturday as a new upper wave reamplifies the upper trough over the
Great Lakes and much of the eastern U S for Friday into the weekend.
Will carry low chance pops focused on Friday and Saturday for any
scattered convection with the front. HIgh pressure then will
reestablish for the second half of the holiday weekend with dry and
seasonable conditions. Expect highs primarily in the lower and
middle 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 270600Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1230 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Area of rain, with occasional embedded lightning strikes, has been slowly
diminishing in coverage over the past couple of hours. Appears most of
the precipitation will be off to the east of the terminals, except for
possibly KBMG, by issuance time. Any lingering activity in the vicinity of
KBMG should be over by 270700Z.

Some IFR ceilings have developed by are limited in scope thus far.
Will insert on a TEMPO basis and monitor next few hours to see if it
expands. Some concern for more widespread IFR/LIFR ceilings to
develop during the early morning hours of Monday given the fairly
widespread rainfall and light gradient. Model guidance not very
bullish on this idea, so will keep out of the forecast for now and
monitor trends overnight.

Otherwise, ceilings above 050 will gradually thin out during the morning hours
on Monday. Generally light surface winds overnight will become 310-340 degrees
at 7-10 kts by late morning Monday.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS/NIELD




000
FXUS63 KIND 270224
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1021 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A cold front over northwest Indiana and north central Illinois will
move southeast across the rest of Indiana overnight bringing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms.  A few remaining thunderstorms far south
early Monday will end as drier air spread south across Indiana.

It will be dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes and eastern U.S. High pressure will bring
mostly dry weather during the long term period. But a weak cold front
may produce a chance of Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Upped PoPs across the southwestern forecast area where rain and
thunderstorms are widespread. Otherwise tweaked them across the
remainder of the area as needed. There will still be a downward
trend as outflow pushes out of the area and instability weakens.

Lowered low temperatures in some areas as well thanks to rain cooled
air.

Thunderstorms in the south still have the potential for wind gusts
over 40 mph and torrential rainfall for the next couple of hours.

Previous discussion follows...


Radar indicated scattered thunderstorms have developed across east
central Indiana as well as well as from southern Lake Michigan to
east central Illinois.   This 2nd area of thunderstorms were ahead of
a weak cold front which will move southeast across the rest of our state
tonight.  LAPS indicates capes in excess of 3000 J/KG and CIN was close
to zero.   Rapid refresh model indicates thunderstorms will become
more numerous towards evening as this front pushes into the northwest part
of our forecast area next few hours.  By evening these thunderstorms should
reach the central Part of our region.  Will go likely POPS central and south
this evening and then gradually end chance of thunderstorms central and south
late tonight as front moves on to the south.

Even though the airmass is very unstable...Wind shear is no more than 10 knots
and we are only expecting a marginal risk of severe storms this evening.  Locally
heavy rain could occur this evening as precipitable water is around 2 inches and
winds aloft are light.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the
middle and upper 60s northwest to around 70 or the lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A few storms could linger into our far south early Monday morning.
Otherwise...it will be dry and turning cooler next few days.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus next few days. Even though the
first cold front will be through Monday...models hint at a dry secondary cold
which will not arrive until Monday.  850 MB temperatures Monday will be almost
as warm as they are today and with lots sunshine Monday...Highs will once again
be close to 90 Monday.  Went between MET and MAV numbers Monday.

This secondary cold front will move through Monday night and cooler air will
overspread our region as 850 MB temperatures go from +19 to +20 celsius Monday
to around +10 Celsius Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model ensembles indicate partly
cloudy conditions will spread into north and central sections Tuesday as the
upper trough digs into the eastern U.S.  High pressure will bring clearing
skies Tuesday night and it will be mostly sunny Wednesday.

The MAV highs seem too cool while the MET numbers may be a bit too warm.   Will
split the difference.  Anyways went with highs in the middle to upper 60s over
northern sections Tuesday and Wednesday to around 80 or the lower 80s in the south.
Went with lows in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and in the 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent upper trough will remain across the eastern half of the
country through much of the extended with ridging aloft focused over
the Intermountain west. This will result in continued cooler weather
than that recently experienced over central Indiana...with
temperatures generally near or below normal for early July.

High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday as it
drifts through the Ohio Valley. Extended models remain relatively
consistent on a cold front tracking through the region Friday into
Saturday as a new upper wave reamplifies the upper trough over the
Great Lakes and much of the eastern U S for Friday into the weekend.
Will carry low chance pops focused on Friday and Saturday for any
scattered convection with the front. HIgh pressure then will
reestablish for the second half of the holiday weekend with dry and
seasonable conditions. Expect highs primarily in the lower and
middle 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 270300Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 1021 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Radar loop indicates most of the heavier cells have pushed off to the
southeast of the KIND terminal, however a rather large of area of rain
with occasional embedded lightning lingers back towards the Illinois
state line. Will extend the thunder threat in the forecast a couple
more hours, more towards 270500Z.

Surface winds will continue to be variable due to convective outflows
for the next several hours, but looks to remain fairly light.

Previous discussion follows.

Broken line of convection continues to drift southeast through the state.
Moderate instability located ahead of line, so expecting this line to hold
steady for several more hours. Threat for direct impacts at the terminals
will remain high until this line passes, around 270400Z. Brief IFR or lower
visibility restrictions and gusty shifting winds expected in and near the
heavier cells. CB bases around 040.

Some of the model data hint at additional nocturnal convective development
over southern Indiana later tonight, possibly affecting the KBMG terminal.
850mb flow expected to be rather weak later tonight, so this potential is
questionable at this time.

Outside of convection, scattered to broken layers above 050 tonight. Surface
winds 230-260 degrees at 8-12 kts early this evening will become light by
270400Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 270201
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A cold front over northwest Indiana and north central Illinois will
move southeast across the rest of Indiana overnight bringing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms.  A few remaining thunderstorms far south
early Monday will end as drier air spread south across Indiana.

It will be dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes and eastern U.S. High pressure will bring
mostly dry weather during the long term period. But a weak cold front
may produce a chance of Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Upped PoPs across the southwestern forecast area where rain and
thunderstorms are widespread. Otherwise tweaked them across the
remainder of the area as needed. There will still be a downward
trend as outflow pushes out of the area and instability weakens.

Lowered low temperatures in some areas as well thanks to rain cooled
air.

Thunderstorms in the south still have the potential for wind gusts
over 40 mph and torrential rainfall for the next couple of hours.

Previous discussion follows...


Radar indicated scattered thunderstorms have developed across east
central Indiana as well as well as from southern Lake Michigan to
east central Illinois.   This 2nd area of thunderstorms were ahead of
a weak cold front which will move southeast across the rest of our state
tonight.  LAPS indicates capes in excess of 3000 J/KG and CIN was close
to zero.   Rapid refresh model indicates thunderstorms will become
more numerous towards evening as this front pushes into the northwest part
of our forecast area next few hours.  By evening these thunderstorms should
reach the central Part of our region.  Will go likely POPS central and south
this evening and then gradually end chance of thunderstorms central and south
late tonight as front moves on to the south.

Even though the airmass is very unstable...Wind shear is no more than 10 knots
and we are only expecting a marginal risk of severe storms this evening.  Locally
heavy rain could occur this evening as precipitable water is around 2 inches and
winds aloft are light.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the
middle and upper 60s northwest to around 70 or the lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A few storms could linger into our far south early Monday morning.
Otherwise...it will be dry and turning cooler next few days.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus next few days. Even though the
first cold front will be through Monday...models hint at a dry secondary cold
which will not arrive until Monday.  850 MB temperatures Monday will be almost
as warm as they are today and with lots sunshine Monday...Highs will once again
be close to 90 Monday.  Went between MET and MAV numbers Monday.

This secondary cold front will move through Monday night and cooler air will
overspread our region as 850 MB temperatures go from +19 to +20 celsius Monday
to around +10 Celsius Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model ensembles indicate partly
cloudy conditions will spread into north and central sections Tuesday as the
upper trough digs into the eastern U.S.  High pressure will bring clearing
skies Tuesday night and it will be mostly sunny Wednesday.

The MAV highs seem too cool while the MET numbers may be a bit too warm.   Will
split the difference.  Anyways went with highs in the middle to upper 60s over
northern sections Tuesday and Wednesday to around 80 or the lower 80s in the south.
Went with lows in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and in the 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent upper trough will remain across the eastern half of the
country through much of the extended with ridging aloft focused over
the Intermountain west. This will result in continued cooler weather
than that recently experienced over central Indiana...with
temperatures generally near or below normal for early July.

High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday as it
drifts through the Ohio Valley. Extended models remain relatively
consistent on a cold front tracking through the region Friday into
Saturday as a new upper wave reamplifies the upper trough over the
Great Lakes and much of the eastern U S for Friday into the weekend.
Will carry low chance pops focused on Friday and Saturday for any
scattered convection with the front. HIgh pressure then will
reestablish for the second half of the holiday weekend with dry and
seasonable conditions. Expect highs primarily in the lower and
middle 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 270000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Broken line of convection continues to drift southeast through the state.
Moderate instability located ahead of line, so expecting this line to hold
steady for several more hours. Threat for direct impacts at the terminals
will remain high until this line passes, around 270400Z. Brief IFR or lower
visibility restrictions and gusty shifting winds expected in and near the
heavier cells. CB bases around 040.

Some of the model data hint at additional nocturnal convective development
over southern Indiana later tonight, possibly affecting the KBMG terminal.
850mb flow expected to be rather weak later tonight, so this potential is
questionable at this time.

Outside of convection, scattered to broken layers above 050 tonight. Surface
winds 230-260 degrees at 8-12 kts early this evening will become light by
270400Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 270201
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The NEAR TERM section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A cold front over northwest Indiana and north central Illinois will
move southeast across the rest of Indiana overnight bringing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms.  A few remaining thunderstorms far south
early Monday will end as drier air spread south across Indiana.

It will be dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes and eastern U.S. High pressure will bring
mostly dry weather during the long term period. But a weak cold front
may produce a chance of Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Tonight/...
Issued at 1001 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Upped PoPs across the southwestern forecast area where rain and
thunderstorms are widespread. Otherwise tweaked them across the
remainder of the area as needed. There will still be a downward
trend as outflow pushes out of the area and instability weakens.

Lowered low temperatures in some areas as well thanks to rain cooled
air.

Thunderstorms in the south still have the potential for wind gusts
over 40 mph and torrential rainfall for the next couple of hours.

Previous discussion follows...


Radar indicated scattered thunderstorms have developed across east
central Indiana as well as well as from southern Lake Michigan to
east central Illinois.   This 2nd area of thunderstorms were ahead of
a weak cold front which will move southeast across the rest of our state
tonight.  LAPS indicates capes in excess of 3000 J/KG and CIN was close
to zero.   Rapid refresh model indicates thunderstorms will become
more numerous towards evening as this front pushes into the northwest part
of our forecast area next few hours.  By evening these thunderstorms should
reach the central Part of our region.  Will go likely POPS central and south
this evening and then gradually end chance of thunderstorms central and south
late tonight as front moves on to the south.

Even though the airmass is very unstable...Wind shear is no more than 10 knots
and we are only expecting a marginal risk of severe storms this evening.  Locally
heavy rain could occur this evening as precipitable water is around 2 inches and
winds aloft are light.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the
middle and upper 60s northwest to around 70 or the lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A few storms could linger into our far south early Monday morning.
Otherwise...it will be dry and turning cooler next few days.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus next few days. Even though the
first cold front will be through Monday...models hint at a dry secondary cold
which will not arrive until Monday.  850 MB temperatures Monday will be almost
as warm as they are today and with lots sunshine Monday...Highs will once again
be close to 90 Monday.  Went between MET and MAV numbers Monday.

This secondary cold front will move through Monday night and cooler air will
overspread our region as 850 MB temperatures go from +19 to +20 celsius Monday
to around +10 Celsius Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model ensembles indicate partly
cloudy conditions will spread into north and central sections Tuesday as the
upper trough digs into the eastern U.S.  High pressure will bring clearing
skies Tuesday night and it will be mostly sunny Wednesday.

The MAV highs seem too cool while the MET numbers may be a bit too warm.   Will
split the difference.  Anyways went with highs in the middle to upper 60s over
northern sections Tuesday and Wednesday to around 80 or the lower 80s in the south.
Went with lows in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and in the 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent upper trough will remain across the eastern half of the
country through much of the extended with ridging aloft focused over
the Intermountain west. This will result in continued cooler weather
than that recently experienced over central Indiana...with
temperatures generally near or below normal for early July.

High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday as it
drifts through the Ohio Valley. Extended models remain relatively
consistent on a cold front tracking through the region Friday into
Saturday as a new upper wave reamplifies the upper trough over the
Great Lakes and much of the eastern U S for Friday into the weekend.
Will carry low chance pops focused on Friday and Saturday for any
scattered convection with the front. HIgh pressure then will
reestablish for the second half of the holiday weekend with dry and
seasonable conditions. Expect highs primarily in the lower and
middle 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 270000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Broken line of convection continues to drift southeast through the state.
Moderate instability located ahead of line, so expecting this line to hold
steady for several more hours. Threat for direct impacts at the terminals
will remain high until this line passes, around 270400Z. Brief IFR or lower
visibility restrictions and gusty shifting winds expected in and near the
heavier cells. CB bases around 040.

Some of the model data hint at additional nocturnal convective development
over southern Indiana later tonight, possibly affecting the KBMG terminal.
850mb flow expected to be rather weak later tonight, so this potential is
questionable at this time.

Outside of convection, scattered to broken layers above 050 tonight. Surface
winds 230-260 degrees at 8-12 kts early this evening will become light by
270400Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270052
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
852 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across northeast
Indiana and northwest Ohio will come to an end late evening into
the early overnight hours. Drier air will overspread tonight into
Monday behind this cold front. Lows tonight will drop into the
60s...with highs on Monday into the upper 80s to near 90. A quiet
and cooler weather pattern will then settle in for the remainder
of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The threat of isolated severe weather has ended for local area as
more vigorous convection has dropped south/southeast of the area.
Cold frontal passage this evening will result in drier low level
air advecting southeast into the area late evening/overnight with
eventual diminishing cloud trend overnight. Did maintain scattered
showers/iso thunder pops into late evening across the southeast as
low level convergent axis lingers for a few more hours. Otherwise,
quiet weather for the overnight hours and no major changes to
previous grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main focus into the late afternoon and early evening will remain on
convective trends. Very moist airmass in place (sfc dewpoints
into the low 70s and PWATS near 2 inches) definitely sufficient to
generate convection along a pre-frontal outflow already east of I-
69. Excellent recovery/some clearing behind this outflow
into northwest Indiana where tight instability gradient is
setting up (SBCAPE values pushing 3000-3500 j/kg toward the US-30
corridor as of 18z). This should be enough to allow more
substantial/deep convection to fire along system cold front mid-
late afternoon, then weakening east-southeast into Ohio later this
aftn/evening. Initiation is most likely across northwest Indiana-
southwest Lower MI 19-21z, then clustering southeast into areas
along and southeast of the US-24 corridor 22-02z. Stronger
multicell clusters may contain an isolated wind threat given low
shear and moderate/high CAPE profile across mainly Indiana.

Drier air will overspread post-frontal tonight into Monday as
height falls through Ontario and the Northern Great Lakes helps
shunt deeper moisture south toward the OH/TN Valleys. Temps aloft
will trend a touch cooler tomorrow but this will be offset at the
sfc by dry air/full sun and deeper mixing which will likely support
highs near 90F in most locations. A secondary cold front will
drop into the area Monday afternoon/evening on leading edge of
main trailing mid-level trough axis. There could be just enough
lingering boundary layer moisture/destabilization to force a few
showers/storms along this feature once it drops into northwest
Indiana mid-late afternoon. Per collaboration and due to a very
limited moisture supply opted to hold with a dry (10 PoP) fcst.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A quiet weather pattern will set up during the long term period as
a cool northwest flow regime takes hold on the region. While at the
surface high pressure will mainly be in control keeping much of the
periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Threat of thunder has diminished for terminals, although cannot
discount some isolated thunder in the next hour at KFWA.
Otherwise, dry air advection to ramp up late evening/overnight in
wake of cold front with generally light west winds. VFR conditions
to continue for Monday with west-northwest winds around 10 knots
by mid morning.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIWX 270052
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
852 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across northeast
Indiana and northwest Ohio will come to an end late evening into
the early overnight hours. Drier air will overspread tonight into
Monday behind this cold front. Lows tonight will drop into the
60s...with highs on Monday into the upper 80s to near 90. A quiet
and cooler weather pattern will then settle in for the remainder
of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The threat of isolated severe weather has ended for local area as
more vigorous convection has dropped south/southeast of the area.
Cold frontal passage this evening will result in drier low level
air advecting southeast into the area late evening/overnight with
eventual diminishing cloud trend overnight. Did maintain scattered
showers/iso thunder pops into late evening across the southeast as
low level convergent axis lingers for a few more hours. Otherwise,
quiet weather for the overnight hours and no major changes to
previous grids.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main focus into the late afternoon and early evening will remain on
convective trends. Very moist airmass in place (sfc dewpoints
into the low 70s and PWATS near 2 inches) definitely sufficient to
generate convection along a pre-frontal outflow already east of I-
69. Excellent recovery/some clearing behind this outflow
into northwest Indiana where tight instability gradient is
setting up (SBCAPE values pushing 3000-3500 j/kg toward the US-30
corridor as of 18z). This should be enough to allow more
substantial/deep convection to fire along system cold front mid-
late afternoon, then weakening east-southeast into Ohio later this
aftn/evening. Initiation is most likely across northwest Indiana-
southwest Lower MI 19-21z, then clustering southeast into areas
along and southeast of the US-24 corridor 22-02z. Stronger
multicell clusters may contain an isolated wind threat given low
shear and moderate/high CAPE profile across mainly Indiana.

Drier air will overspread post-frontal tonight into Monday as
height falls through Ontario and the Northern Great Lakes helps
shunt deeper moisture south toward the OH/TN Valleys. Temps aloft
will trend a touch cooler tomorrow but this will be offset at the
sfc by dry air/full sun and deeper mixing which will likely support
highs near 90F in most locations. A secondary cold front will
drop into the area Monday afternoon/evening on leading edge of
main trailing mid-level trough axis. There could be just enough
lingering boundary layer moisture/destabilization to force a few
showers/storms along this feature once it drops into northwest
Indiana mid-late afternoon. Per collaboration and due to a very
limited moisture supply opted to hold with a dry (10 PoP) fcst.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A quiet weather pattern will set up during the long term period as
a cool northwest flow regime takes hold on the region. While at the
surface high pressure will mainly be in control keeping much of the
periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 851 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Threat of thunder has diminished for terminals, although cannot
discount some isolated thunder in the next hour at KFWA.
Otherwise, dry air advection to ramp up late evening/overnight in
wake of cold front with generally light west winds. VFR conditions
to continue for Monday with west-northwest winds around 10 knots
by mid morning.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Marsili
SYNOPSIS...Marsili
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 262233
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A cold front over northwest Indiana and north central Illinois will
move southeast across the rest of Indiana overnight bringing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms.  A few remaining thunderstorms far south
early Monday will end as drier air spread south across Indiana.

It will be dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes and eastern U.S. High pressure will bring
mostly dry weather during the long term period. But a weak cold front
may produce a chance of Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Radar indicated scattered thunderstorms have developed across east
central Indiana as well as well as from southern Lake Michigan to
east central Illinois.   This 2nd area of thunderstorms were ahead of
a weak cold front which will move southeast across the rest of our state
tonight.  LAPS indicates capes in excess of 3000 J/KG and CIN was close
to zero.   Rapid refresh model indicates thunderstorms will become
more numerous towards evening as this front pushes into the northwest part
of our forecast area next few hours.  By evening these thunderstorms should
reach the central Part of our region.  Will go likely POPS central and south
this evening and then gradually end chance of thunderstorms central and south
late tonight as front moves on to the south.

Even though the airmass is very unstable...Wind shear is no more than 10 knots
and we are only expecting a marginal risk of severe storms this evening.  Locally
heavy rain could occur this evening as precipitable water is around 2 inches and
winds aloft are light.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the
middle and upper 60s northwest to around 70 or the lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A few storms could linger into our far south early Monday morning.
Otherwise...it will be dry and turning cooler next few days.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus next few days. Even though the
first cold front will be through Monday...models hint at a dry secondary cold
which will not arrive until Monday.  850 MB temperatures Monday will be almost
as warm as they are today and with lots sunshine Monday...Highs will once again
be close to 90 Monday.  Went between MET and MAV numbers Monday.

This secondary cold front will move through Monday night and cooler air will
overspread our region as 850 MB temperatures go from +19 to +20 celsius Monday
to around +10 Celsius Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model ensembles indicate partly
cloudy conditions will spread into north and central sections Tuesday as the
upper trough digs into the eastern U.S.  High pressure will bring clearing
skies Tuesday night and it will be mostly sunny Wednesday.

The MAV highs seem too cool while the MET numbers may be a bit too warm.   Will
split the difference.  Anyways went with highs in the middle to upper 60s over
northern sections Tuesday and Wednesday to around 80 or the lower 80s in the south.
Went with lows in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and in the 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent upper trough will remain across the eastern half of the
country through much of the extended with ridging aloft focused over
the Intermountain west. This will result in continued cooler weather
than that recently experienced over central Indiana...with
temperatures generally near or below normal for early July.

High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday as it
drifts through the Ohio Valley. Extended models remain relatively
consistent on a cold front tracking through the region Friday into
Saturday as a new upper wave reamplifies the upper trough over the
Great Lakes and much of the eastern U S for Friday into the weekend.
Will carry low chance pops focused on Friday and Saturday for any
scattered convection with the front. HIgh pressure then will
reestablish for the second half of the holiday weekend with dry and
seasonable conditions. Expect highs primarily in the lower and
middle 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 270000Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Broken line of convection continues to drift southeast through the state.
Moderate instability located ahead of line, so expecting this line to hold
steady for several more hours. Threat for direct impacts at the terminals
will remain high until this line passes, around 270400Z. Brief IFR or lower
visibility restrictions and gusty shifting winds expected in and near the
heavier cells. CB bases around 040.

Some of the model data hint at additional nocturnal convective development
over southern Indiana later tonight, possibly affecting the KBMG terminal.
850mb flow expected to be rather weak later tonight, so this potential is
questionable at this time.

Outside of convection, scattered to broken layers above 050 tonight. Surface
winds 230-260 degrees at 8-12 kts early this evening will become light by
270400Z.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 262033
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
430 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A cold front over northwest Indiana and north central Illinois will
move southeast across the rest of Indiana overnight bringing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms.  A few remaining thunderstorms far south
early Monday will end as drier air spread south across Indiana.

It will be dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes and eastern U.S. High pressure will bring
mostly dry weather during the long term period. But a weak cold front
may produce a chance of Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Radar indicated scattered thunderstorms have developed across east
central Indiana as well as well as from southern Lake Michigan to
east central Illinois.   This 2nd area of thunderstorms were ahead of
a weak cold front which will move southeast across the rest of our state
tonight.  LAPS indicates capes in excess of 3000 J/KG and CIN was close
to zero.   Rapid refresh model indicates thunderstorms will become
more numerous towards evening as this front pushes into the northwest part
of our forecast area next few hours.  By evening these thunderstorms should
reach the central Part of our region.  Will go likely POPS central and south
this evening and then gradually end chance of thunderstorms central and south
late tonight as front moves on to the south.

Even though the airmass is very unstable...Wind shear is no more than 10 knots
and we are only expecting a marginal risk of severe storms this evening.  Locally
heavy rain could occur this evening as precipitable water is around 2 inches and
winds aloft are light.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the
middle and upper 60s northwest to around 70 or the lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A few storms could linger into our far south early Monday morning.
Otherwise...it will be dry and turning cooler next few days.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus next few days. Even though the
first cold front will be through Monday...models hint at a dry secondary cold
which will not arrive until Monday.  850 MB temperatures Monday will be almost
as warm as they are today and with lots sunshine Monday...Highs will once again
be close to 90 Monday.  Went between MET and MAV numbers Monday.

This secondary cold front will move through Monday night and cooler air will
overspread our region as 850 MB temperatures go from +19 to +20 celsius Monday
to around +10 Celsius Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model ensembles indicate partly
cloudy conditions will spread into north and central sections Tuesday as the
upper trough digs into the eastern U.S.  High pressure will bring clearing
skies Tuesday night and it will be mostly sunny Wednesday.

The MAV highs seem too cool while the MET numbers may be a bit too warm.   Will
split the difference.  Anyways went with highs in the middle to upper 60s over
northern sections Tuesday and Wednesday to around 80 or the lower 80s in the south.
Went with lows in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and in the 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent upper trough will remain across the eastern half of the
country through much of the extended with ridging aloft focused over
the Intermountain west. This will result in continued cooler weather
than that recently experienced over central Indiana...with
temperatures generally near or below normal for early July.

High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday as it
drifts through the Ohio Valley. Extended models remain relatively
consistent on a cold front tracking through the region Friday into
Saturday as a new upper wave reamplifies the upper trough over the
Great Lakes and much of the eastern U S for Friday into the weekend.
Will carry low chance pops focused on Friday and Saturday for any
scattered convection with the front. HIgh pressure then will
reestablish for the second half of the holiday weekend with dry and
seasonable conditions. Expect highs primarily in the lower and
middle 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 262100Z KIND TAF Update/...

Issued at 430 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Line of convection extending from northwest Indiana back into east central
Illinois currently drifting east. Moderate instability exists ahead of line,
so further development looks reasonable. At this time, still appears best
chances for direct impacts at the KIND terminal between 262300Z-270300Z.

Previous discussion follows.

VFR conditions expected throughout the period with the
exception of restrictions within convection later this afternoon and
evening.

Skies remain mostly sunny early this afternoon with light
southwest winds doing little to deter the muggy airmass over the
region. Cold front remains northwest of central Indiana currently
with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms in the upper
Midwest noted on satellite and radar over the northern Wabash
Valley. This feature may serve as the initial catalyst to fire
convection as it drops further into the forecast area over the
next few hours. With little shear and forcing aloft present
however...expect storms remain isolated to widely scattered
through about 21Z. A continued VCTS mention will suffice at all
sites. Will highlight SW winds veering to westerly by early
evening...but likely to see variable wind direction for a period
of time once the outflow passes.

Hi-res guidance continues to develop a broken line of convection
with the front for late afternoon and evening. Confidence is
higher in greater threat for convective impacts at all terminals
during this period and despite some question as to how extensive
storm coverage will eventually become in the absence of greater
shear...feel a 4 hour tempo group for storms producing brief
restrictions is prudent at all sites.

Any lingering convection will move south of the terminals with the
front overnight. A brief period of mid to high level clouds will
give way to mainly clear skies on Monday as deep subsidence
spreads into the region on N/NW winds.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 261924
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Synopsis...near term...short term and long term sections have been
updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A cold front over northwest Indiana and north central Illinois will
move southeast across the rest of Indiana overnight bringing scattered
to numerous thunderstorms.  A few remaining thunderstorms far south
early Monday will end as drier air spread south across Indiana.

It will be dry and cooler Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper trough
digs into the great lakes and eastern U.S. High pressure will bring
mostly dry weather during the long term period. But a weak cold front
may produce a chance of Thunderstorms Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Radar indicated scattered thunderstorms have developed across east
central Indiana as well as well as from southern Lake Michigan to
east central Illinois.   This 2nd area of thunderstorms were ahead of
a weak cold front which will move southeast across the rest of our state
tonight.  LAPS indicates capes in excess of 3000 J/KG and CIN was close
to zero.   Rapid refresh model indicates thunderstorms will become
more numerous towards evening as this front pushes into the northwest part
of our forecast area next few hours.  By evening these thunderstorms should
reach the central Part of our region.  Will go likely POPS central and south
this evening and then gradually end chance of thunderstorms central and south
late tonight as front moves on to the south.

Even though the airmass is very unstable...Wind shear is no more than 10 knots
and we are only expecting a marginal risk of severe storms this evening.  Locally
heavy rain could occur this evening as precipitable water is around 2 inches and
winds aloft are light.

Concerning temperatures stayed close to a MOS blend with lows from the
middle and upper 60s northwest to around 70 or the lower 70s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Monday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

A few storms could linger into our far south early Monday morning.
Otherwise...it will be dry and turning cooler next few days.

Temperatures will be the main forecast focus next few days. Even though the
first cold front will be through Monday...models hint at a dry secondary cold
which will not arrive until Monday.  850 MB temperatures Monday will be almost
as warm as they are today and with lots sunshine Monday...Highs will once again
be close to 90 Monday.  Went between MET and MAV numbers Monday.

This secondary cold front will move through Monday night and cooler air will
overspread our region as 850 MB temperatures go from +19 to +20 celsius Monday
to around +10 Celsius Tuesday and Wednesday.  Model ensembles indicate partly
cloudy conditions will spread into north and central sections Tuesday as the
upper trough digs into the eastern U.S.  High pressure will bring clearing
skies Tuesday night and it will be mostly sunny Wednesday.

The MAV highs seem too cool while the MET numbers may be a bit too warm.   Will
split the difference.  Anyways went with highs in the middle to upper 60s over
northern sections Tuesday and Wednesday to around 80 or the lower 80s in the south.
Went with lows in the lower to middle 60s Monday night and in the 50s Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
Issued at 325 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Persistent upper trough will remain across the eastern half of the
country through much of the extended with ridging aloft focused over
the Intermountain west. This will result in continued cooler weather
than that recently experienced over central Indiana...with
temperatures generally near or below normal for early July.

High pressure will maintain dry weather through Thursday as it
drifts through the Ohio Valley. Extended models remain relatively
consistent on a cold front tracking through the region Friday into
Saturday as a new upper wave reamplifies the upper trough over the
Great Lakes and much of the eastern U S for Friday into the weekend.
Will carry low chance pops focused on Friday and Saturday for any
scattered convection with the front. HIgh pressure then will
reestablish for the second half of the holiday weekend with dry and
seasonable conditions. Expect highs primarily in the lower and
middle 80s through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 261800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions expected throughout the period with the exception
of restrictions within convection later this afternoon and
evening.

Skies remain mostly sunny early this afternoon with light
southwest winds doing little to deter the muggy airmass over the
region. Cold front remains northwest of central Indiana currently
with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms in the upper
Midwest noted on satellite and radar over the northern Wabash
Valley. This feature may serve as the initial catalyst to fire
convection as it drops further into the forecast area over the
next few hours. With little shear and forcing aloft present
however...expect storms remain isolated to widely scattered
through about 21Z. A continued VCTS mention will suffice at all
sites. Will highlight SW winds veering to westerly by early
evening...but likely to see variable wind direction for a period
of time once the outflow passes.

Hi-res guidance continues to develop a broken line of convection
with the front for late afternoon and evening. Confidence is
higher in greater threat for convective impacts at all terminals
during this period and despite some question as to how extensive
storm coverage will eventually become in the absence of greater
shear...feel a 4 hour tempo group for storms producing brief
restrictions is prudent at all sites.

Any lingering convection will move south of the terminals with the
front overnight. A brief period of mid to high level clouds will
give way to mainly clear skies on Monday as deep subsidence
spreads into the region on N/NW winds.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIWX 261847
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
247 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the
region this afternoon into early this evening. A few thunderstorms
may be strong with isolated wind gusts to 50 mph possible. Drier
air will overspread tonight into Monday behind this cold front.
Lows tonight will drop into the 60s...with highs on Monday into
the upper 80s to near 90. A quiet and cooler weather pattern will
then settle in for the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main focus into the late afternoon and early evening will remain on
convective trends. Very moist airmass in place (sfc dewpoints
into the low 70s and PWATS near 2 inches) definitely sufficient to
generate convection along a pre-frontal outflow already east of I-
69. Excellent recovery/some clearing behind this outflow
into northwest Indiana where tight instability gradient is
setting up (SBCAPE values pushing 3000-3500 j/kg toward the US-30
corridor as of 18z). This should be enough to allow more
substantial/deep convection to fire along system cold front mid-
late afternoon, then weakening east-southeast into Ohio later this
aftn/evening. Initiation is most likely across northwest Indiana-
southwest Lower MI 19-21z, then clustering southeast into areas
along and southeast of the US-24 corridor 22-02z. Stronger
multicell clusters may contain an isolated wind threat given low
shear and moderate/high CAPE profile across mainly Indiana.

Drier air will overspread post-frontal tonight into Monday as
height falls through Ontario and the Northern Great Lakes helps
shunt deeper moisture south toward the OH/TN Valleys. Temps aloft
will trend a touch cooler tomorrow but this will be offset at the
sfc by dry air/full sun and deeper mixing which will likely support
highs near 90F in most locations. A secondary cold front will
drop into the area Monday afternoon/evening on leading edge of
main trailing mid-level trough axis. There could be just enough
lingering boundary layer moisture/destabilization to force a few
showers/storms along this feature once it drops into northwest
Indiana mid-late afternoon. Per collaboration and due to a very
limited moisture supply opted to hold with a dry (10 PoP) fcst.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A quiet weather pattern will set up during the long term period as
a cool northwest flow regime takes hold on the region. While at the
surface high pressure will mainly be in control keeping much of the
periods dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Vfr conds xpcd through the pd. Prefntl trough in assocn/w sw
trough swirling through wrn ON stretching fm wrn lwr MI swwd
through wrn IL cont ewd through the aftn. Stabilization in wake of
morning outflw throws some uncertainty into how things redvlp
this aftn alg prefntl trough. Hwvr enough of concensus projection
of fvrd placement exists to drop prior tempo tsra grouping at
KSBN. While environmental flw through base of mid lvl trough
remains weak...rapidly destabilizing outflw bubble w/swd extent and
somewhat enhanced sfc convergence xpcd invof KFWA lt this aftn.
RAP UH progs suggests a fairly stg line of convn likely to result
this evening acrs ern IN/wrn OH which may yield a brief pd of
+tsra w/potential mvfr conds resulting. Will cont to monitor.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...T


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIWX 261743
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 525 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to
east today as an upper level system moves into the area. Isolated
wind gusts greater than 50 mph and heavy rain will be the main
threats with thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening.
Highs today will be near 90 with heat indices rising to near 100
degrees this afternoon. A drier and eventually cooler weather
pattern will then settle in for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Very warm and humid air will spread northeast into the forecast area
today. Have issued a heat advisory for most of northern Indiana
until 6 pm EDT given a very warm start with early morning
temperatures in the 70s and given very humid air just upstream. Some
clouds may hinder the warmup today, but the heat index over much of
northern Indiana should rise to around 100 degrees later today.

A large area of thunderstorms extended across Iowa into Wisconsin
early this morning ahead of an upper trof. These storms will move
east later today. Wind directions in the lower atmosphere should be
relatively unidirectional and wind speed under 30 knots.  Mid level
lapse rates will be relatively stable, close to 6.0C/Km. CAPE values
should rise to between 1500 and 2000 J/Kg per latest BUFKIT high
resolution soundings. Given favorable diurnal timing, some storms
will likely become strong and produce wind gusts in excess of 50
mph. Precipitable water values should climb above 2.0 inches so
heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

An upper level trof is expected to amplify this upcoming week and
bring dry and relatively cool weather to the area during the middle
of the week. The cold front should move across the area late Monday.
Lakeshore hazards along the southeast shore of Lake Michigan are
likely Monday night into Tuesday as winds become northwest behind
the front. Cooler weather will return during the middle of the week
as the long wave trof becomes established over eastern North
America. Lows should dip well into the 50s Tuesday night.  Highs
should be in the 70s to around 80 from Tuesday through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Vfr conds xpcd through the pd. Prefntl trough in assocn/w sw
trough swirling through wrn ON stretching fm wrn lwr MI swwd
through wrn IL cont ewd through the aftn. Stabilization in wake of
morning outflw throws some uncertainty into how things redvlp
this aftn alg prefntl trough. Hwvr enough of concensus projection
of fvrd placement exists to drop prior tempo tsra grouping at
KSBN. While environmental flw through base of mid lvl trough
remains weak...rapidly destabilizing outflw bubble w/swd extent and
somewhat enhanced sfc convergence xpcd invof KFWA lt this aftn.
RAP UH progs suggests a fairly stg line of convn likely to result
this evening acrs ern IN/wrn OH which may yield a brief pd of
+tsra w/potential mvfr conds resulting. Will cont to monitor.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIWX 261743
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
143 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 525 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to
east today as an upper level system moves into the area. Isolated
wind gusts greater than 50 mph and heavy rain will be the main
threats with thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening.
Highs today will be near 90 with heat indices rising to near 100
degrees this afternoon. A drier and eventually cooler weather
pattern will then settle in for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Very warm and humid air will spread northeast into the forecast area
today. Have issued a heat advisory for most of northern Indiana
until 6 pm EDT given a very warm start with early morning
temperatures in the 70s and given very humid air just upstream. Some
clouds may hinder the warmup today, but the heat index over much of
northern Indiana should rise to around 100 degrees later today.

A large area of thunderstorms extended across Iowa into Wisconsin
early this morning ahead of an upper trof. These storms will move
east later today. Wind directions in the lower atmosphere should be
relatively unidirectional and wind speed under 30 knots.  Mid level
lapse rates will be relatively stable, close to 6.0C/Km. CAPE values
should rise to between 1500 and 2000 J/Kg per latest BUFKIT high
resolution soundings. Given favorable diurnal timing, some storms
will likely become strong and produce wind gusts in excess of 50
mph. Precipitable water values should climb above 2.0 inches so
heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

An upper level trof is expected to amplify this upcoming week and
bring dry and relatively cool weather to the area during the middle
of the week. The cold front should move across the area late Monday.
Lakeshore hazards along the southeast shore of Lake Michigan are
likely Monday night into Tuesday as winds become northwest behind
the front. Cooler weather will return during the middle of the week
as the long wave trof becomes established over eastern North
America. Lows should dip well into the 50s Tuesday night.  Highs
should be in the 70s to around 80 from Tuesday through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Vfr conds xpcd through the pd. Prefntl trough in assocn/w sw
trough swirling through wrn ON stretching fm wrn lwr MI swwd
through wrn IL cont ewd through the aftn. Stabilization in wake of
morning outflw throws some uncertainty into how things redvlp
this aftn alg prefntl trough. Hwvr enough of concensus projection
of fvrd placement exists to drop prior tempo tsra grouping at
KSBN. While environmental flw through base of mid lvl trough
remains weak...rapidly destabilizing outflw bubble w/swd extent and
somewhat enhanced sfc convergence xpcd invof KFWA lt this aftn.
RAP UH progs suggests a fairly stg line of convn likely to result
this evening acrs ern IN/wrn OH which may yield a brief pd of
+tsra w/potential mvfr conds resulting. Will cont to monitor.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...T


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 261635
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1235 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A frontal system will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to portions of the area. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe
threat is unlikely. Heat indices in the very humid airmass will
approach 100 degrees at times this afternoon. A secondary cold
front will bring relief from the heat Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area behind it. Dry conditions will
dominate much of the week, with low precipitation chances
returning as next weekend arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.update...Continue to slow down the arrival time storms with isolated storms
by early afternoon and the best chances being 6 PM an beyond based on current
trends and HRR.  Tweaked Highs down a degree over the northwest half of our region
due to increasing clouds. Otherwise...the rest of the near term is on track and no
updates other than grids are needed at this time.

Previous near term discussion follows....
Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through the day as the
cold front approaches. While ample instability will be present
owing to the very warm and humid airmass ahead of the front, shear
is meager at best. Suppose the significant instability could
produce a pulse severe storm here or there, but do not expect
anything more than that. Hydrologic issues may be the more
pressing concern as precipitation efficiency should be quite high
with deep warm cloud owing to a freezing level pushing 14kft,
pseudotropical with very deep saturation, and storm motions which
are likely to be somewhat slow contributing to the potential for
some heavy rainfall. Additionally, observed rainfall in the last
week or two has been roughly 150 to as much as 400 percent of
normal in some portions of central Indiana. Will hit the flood
threat in the HWO.

Consensus temperatures looked reasonable with minor upward tweaks
where storms are expected to arrive latest in the day, mainly
south and southeast. Maximum heat index values will likely
approach and may briefly exceed 100 degrees across portions of the
area this afternoon. Indices should remain below advisory criteria
but will be mentioned in the HWO as this will be one of the hotter
days of the year thus far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Storm threat will persist into the evening across much of the area
and the overnight for at least portions of central Indiana. Again,
while an isolated pulse severe storm cannot be ruled out, think
sporadic hydrologic issues will be the more likely threat to
require monitoring. As the front exits the area late tonight into
early Monday morning, will rapidly taper off precip chances with
only the far southern area carrying a slight chance into the first
few hours of the day on Monday. The remainder of the short term
looks dry, although will have to monitor secondary cold frontal
passage Monday night into Tuesday as dewpoints will still be in
the 60s ahead of it.

Consensus temperatures appeared632 reasonable with minor tweaks
throughout the period, mainly late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that Canadian high pressure
will allow for dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday. Then, an upper trough will pivot east across the
Great Lakes and push a back door cold front across central Indiana
early next weekend. Regional blend suggests there could be a few
showers and thunderstorms around over all or parts of the area
starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, when the
front will likely move through. Temperatures should bounce back to
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday or
Friday. Look for lows in the 50s Wednesday night and the 60s the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 261800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions expected throughout the period with the exception
of restrictions within convection later this afternoon and
evening.

Skies remain mostly sunny early this afternoon with light
southwest winds doing little to deter the muggy airmass over the
region. Cold front remains northwest of central Indiana currently
with a remnant outflow boundary from overnight storms in the upper
Midwest noted on satellite and radar over the northern Wabash
Valley. This feature may serve as the initial catalyst to fire
convection as it drops further into the forecast area over the
next few hours. With little shear and forcing aloft present
however...expect storms remain isolated to widely scattered
through about 21Z. A continued VCTS mention will suffice at all
sites. Will highlight SW winds veering to westerly by early
evening...but likely to see variable wind direction for a period
of time once the outflow passes.

Hi-res guidance continues to develop a broken line of convection
with the front for late afternoon and evening. Confidence is
higher in greater threat for convective impacts at all terminals
during this period and despite some question as to how extensive
storm coverage will eventually become in the absence of greater
shear...feel a 4 hour tempo group for storms producing brief
restrictions is prudent at all sites.

Any lingering convection will move south of the terminals with the
front overnight. A brief period of mid to high level clouds will
give way to mainly clear skies on Monday as deep subsidence
spreads into the region on N/NW winds.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/MK/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 261412
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1012 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A frontal system will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to portions of the area. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe
threat is unlikely. Heat indices in the very humid airmass will
approach 100 degrees at times this afternoon. A secondary cold
front will bring relief from the heat Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area behind it. Dry conditions will
dominate much of the week, with low precipitation chances
returning as next weekend arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.update...Continue to slow down the arrival time storms with isolated storms
by early afternoon and the best chances being 6 PM an beyond based on current
trends and HRR.  Tweaked Highs down a degree over the northwest half of our region
due to increasing clouds. Otherwise...the rest of the near term is on track and no
updates other than grids are needed at this time.

Previous near term discussion follows....
Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through the day as the
cold front approaches. While ample instability will be present
owing to the very warm and humid airmass ahead of the front, shear
is meager at best. Suppose the significant instability could
produce a pulse severe storm here or there, but do not expect
anything more than that. Hydrologic issues may be the more
pressing concern as precipitation efficiency should be quite high
with deep warm cloud owing to a freezing level pushing 14kft,
pseudotropical with very deep saturation, and storm motions which
are likely to be somewhat slow contributing to the potential for
some heavy rainfall. Additionally, observed rainfall in the last
week or two has been roughly 150 to as much as 400 percent of
normal in some portions of central Indiana. Will hit the flood
threat in the HWO.

Consensus temperatures looked reasonable with minor upward tweaks
where storms are expected to arrive latest in the day, mainly
south and southeast. Maximum heat index values will likely
approach and may briefly exceed 100 degrees across portions of the
area this afternoon. Indices should remain below advisory criteria
but will be mentioned in the HWO as this will be one of the hotter
days of the year thus far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Storm threat will persist into the evening across much of the area
and the overnight for at least portions of central Indiana. Again,
while an isolated pulse severe storm cannot be ruled out, think
sporadic hydrologic issues will be the more likely threat to
require monitoring. As the front exits the area late tonight into
early Monday morning, will rapidly taper off precip chances with
only the far southern area carrying a slight chance into the first
few hours of the day on Monday. The remainder of the short term
looks dry, although will have to monitor secondary cold frontal
passage Monday night into Tuesday as dewpoints will still be in
the 60s ahead of it.

Consensus temperatures appeared632 reasonable with minor tweaks
throughout the period, mainly late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that Canadian high pressure
will allow for dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday. Then, an upper trough will pivot east across the
Great Lakes and push a back door cold front across central Indiana
early next weekend. Regional blend suggests there could be a few
showers and thunderstorms around over all or parts of the area
starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, when the
front will likely move through. Temperatures should bounce back to
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday or
Friday. Look for lows in the 50s Wednesday night and the 60s the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 261500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1012 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

TAFs are in decent shape for the mid morning update and only making
subtle adjustments. Main change is to slow initial VCTS mention by
an hour or two this afternoon. Already seeing a few showers develop
in the warm humid airmass...but current hi-res guidance favors
isolated convection developing primarily after 17-18Z with more
substantial convection associated with the cold front set to impact
the terminals late afternoon and evening.

12Z discussion follows.

Good confidence in VFR conditions through much of the period except
MVFR and possibly IFR at times in thunderstorms. The first batch of
convection should move into the LAF and HUF areas after 14z and IND
and BMG after 15z as a warm front moves across the area. Then, a
more solid line will be dropping southeast over the terminals 21z
and later this afternoon near and just ahead of an approaching cold
front per the HRRR. The HRRR is currently handling the convection
rather well. Things will be winding down tonight after the cold
front moves through.

Winds will be south and southwest today and increase to around 10
knots 14z-16z. Winds near term will then become west and northwest 7
knots or less post frontal tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/MK/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 261412
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1012 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A frontal system will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to portions of the area. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe
threat is unlikely. Heat indices in the very humid airmass will
approach 100 degrees at times this afternoon. A secondary cold
front will bring relief from the heat Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area behind it. Dry conditions will
dominate much of the week, with low precipitation chances
returning as next weekend arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.update...Continue to slow down the arrival time storms with isolated storms
by early afternoon and the best chances being 6 PM an beyond based on current
trends and HRR.  Tweaked Highs down a degree over the northwest half of our region
due to increasing clouds. Otherwise...the rest of the near term is on track and no
updates other than grids are needed at this time.

Previous near term discussion follows....
Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through the day as the
cold front approaches. While ample instability will be present
owing to the very warm and humid airmass ahead of the front, shear
is meager at best. Suppose the significant instability could
produce a pulse severe storm here or there, but do not expect
anything more than that. Hydrologic issues may be the more
pressing concern as precipitation efficiency should be quite high
with deep warm cloud owing to a freezing level pushing 14kft,
pseudotropical with very deep saturation, and storm motions which
are likely to be somewhat slow contributing to the potential for
some heavy rainfall. Additionally, observed rainfall in the last
week or two has been roughly 150 to as much as 400 percent of
normal in some portions of central Indiana. Will hit the flood
threat in the HWO.

Consensus temperatures looked reasonable with minor upward tweaks
where storms are expected to arrive latest in the day, mainly
south and southeast. Maximum heat index values will likely
approach and may briefly exceed 100 degrees across portions of the
area this afternoon. Indices should remain below advisory criteria
but will be mentioned in the HWO as this will be one of the hotter
days of the year thus far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Storm threat will persist into the evening across much of the area
and the overnight for at least portions of central Indiana. Again,
while an isolated pulse severe storm cannot be ruled out, think
sporadic hydrologic issues will be the more likely threat to
require monitoring. As the front exits the area late tonight into
early Monday morning, will rapidly taper off precip chances with
only the far southern area carrying a slight chance into the first
few hours of the day on Monday. The remainder of the short term
looks dry, although will have to monitor secondary cold frontal
passage Monday night into Tuesday as dewpoints will still be in
the 60s ahead of it.

Consensus temperatures appeared632 reasonable with minor tweaks
throughout the period, mainly late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that Canadian high pressure
will allow for dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday. Then, an upper trough will pivot east across the
Great Lakes and push a back door cold front across central Indiana
early next weekend. Regional blend suggests there could be a few
showers and thunderstorms around over all or parts of the area
starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, when the
front will likely move through. Temperatures should bounce back to
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday or
Friday. Look for lows in the 50s Wednesday night and the 60s the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 261500Z TAF Update/...
Issued at 1012 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

TAFs are in decent shape for the mid morning update and only making
subtle adjustments. Main change is to slow initial VCTS mention by
an hour or two this afternoon. Already seeing a few showers develop
in the warm humid airmass...but current hi-res guidance favors
isolated convection developing primarily after 17-18Z with more
substantial convection associated with the cold front set to impact
the terminals late afternoon and evening.

12Z discussion follows.

Good confidence in VFR conditions through much of the period except
MVFR and possibly IFR at times in thunderstorms. The first batch of
convection should move into the LAF and HUF areas after 14z and IND
and BMG after 15z as a warm front moves across the area. Then, a
more solid line will be dropping southeast over the terminals 21z
and later this afternoon near and just ahead of an approaching cold
front per the HRRR. The HRRR is currently handling the convection
rather well. Things will be winding down tonight after the cold
front moves through.

Winds will be south and southwest today and increase to around 10
knots 14z-16z. Winds near term will then become west and northwest 7
knots or less post frontal tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/MK/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN




000
FXUS63 KIND 261355
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
955 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Near term for the rest of today has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A frontal system will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to portions of the area. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe
threat is unlikely. Heat indices in the very humid airmass will
approach 100 degrees at times this afternoon. A secondary cold
front will bring relief from the heat Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area behind it. Dry conditions will
dominate much of the week, with low precipitation chances
returning as next weekend arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.update...Continue to slow down the arrival time storms with isolated storms
by early afternoon and the best chances being 6 PM an beyond based on current
trends and HRR.  Tweaked Highs down a degree over the northwest half of our region
due to increasing clouds. Otherwise...the rest of the near term is on track and no
updates other than grids are needed at this time.

Previous near term discussion follows....
Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through the day as the
cold front approaches. While ample instability will be present
owing to the very warm and humid airmass ahead of the front, shear
is meager at best. Suppose the significant instability could
produce a pulse severe storm here or there, but do not expect
anything more than that. Hydrologic issues may be the more
pressing concern as precipitation efficiency should be quite high
with deep warm cloud owing to a freezing level pushing 14kft,
pseudotropical with very deep saturation, and storm motions which
are likely to be somewhat slow contributing to the potential for
some heavy rainfall. Additionally, observed rainfall in the last
week or two has been roughly 150 to as much as 400 percent of
normal in some portions of central Indiana. Will hit the flood
threat in the HWO.

Consensus temperatures looked reasonable with minor upward tweaks
where storms are expected to arrive latest in the day, mainly
south and southeast. Maximum heat index values will likely
approach and may briefly exceed 100 degrees across portions of the
area this afternoon. Indices should remain below advisory criteria
but will be mentioned in the HWO as this will be one of the hotter
days of the year thus far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Storm threat will persist into the evening across much of the area
and the overnight for at least portions of central Indiana. Again,
while an isolated pulse severe storm cannot be ruled out, think
sporadic hydrologic issues will be the more likely threat to
require monitoring. As the front exits the area late tonight into
early Monday morning, will rapidly taper off precip chances with
only the far southern area carrying a slight chance into the first
few hours of the day on Monday. The remainder of the short term
looks dry, although will have to monitor secondary cold frontal
passage Monday night into Tuesday as dewpoints will still be in
the 60s ahead of it.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable with minor tweaks
throughout the period, mainly late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that Canadian high pressure
will allow for dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday. Then, an upper trough will pivot east across the
Great Lakes and push a back door cold front across central Indiana
early next weekend. Regional blend suggests there could be a few
showers and thunderstorms around over all or parts of the area
starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, when the
front will likely move through. Temperatures should bounce back to
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday or
Friday. Look for lows in the 50s Wednesday night and the 60s the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 261200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Good confidence in VFR conditions through much of the period except
MVFR and possibly IFR at times in thunderstorms. The first batch of
convection should move into the LAF and HUF areas after 14z and IND
and BMG after 15z as a warm front moves across the area. Then, a
more solid line will be dropping southeast over the terminals 21z
and later this afternoon near and just ahead of an approaching cold
front per the HRRR. The HRRR is currently handling the convection
rather well. Things will be winding down tonight after the cold
front moves through.

Winds will be south and southwest today and increase to around 10
knots 14z-16z. Winds will then become west and northwest 7 knots or
less post frontal tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/MK/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 261355
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
955 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Near term for the rest of today has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A frontal system will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to portions of the area. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe
threat is unlikely. Heat indices in the very humid airmass will
approach 100 degrees at times this afternoon. A secondary cold
front will bring relief from the heat Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area behind it. Dry conditions will
dominate much of the week, with low precipitation chances
returning as next weekend arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of Today/...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

.update...Continue to slow down the arrival time storms with isolated storms
by early afternoon and the best chances being 6 PM an beyond based on current
trends and HRR.  Tweaked Highs down a degree over the northwest half of our region
due to increasing clouds. Otherwise...the rest of the near term is on track and no
updates other than grids are needed at this time.

Previous near term discussion follows....
Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through the day as the
cold front approaches. While ample instability will be present
owing to the very warm and humid airmass ahead of the front, shear
is meager at best. Suppose the significant instability could
produce a pulse severe storm here or there, but do not expect
anything more than that. Hydrologic issues may be the more
pressing concern as precipitation efficiency should be quite high
with deep warm cloud owing to a freezing level pushing 14kft,
pseudotropical with very deep saturation, and storm motions which
are likely to be somewhat slow contributing to the potential for
some heavy rainfall. Additionally, observed rainfall in the last
week or two has been roughly 150 to as much as 400 percent of
normal in some portions of central Indiana. Will hit the flood
threat in the HWO.

Consensus temperatures looked reasonable with minor upward tweaks
where storms are expected to arrive latest in the day, mainly
south and southeast. Maximum heat index values will likely
approach and may briefly exceed 100 degrees across portions of the
area this afternoon. Indices should remain below advisory criteria
but will be mentioned in the HWO as this will be one of the hotter
days of the year thus far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Storm threat will persist into the evening across much of the area
and the overnight for at least portions of central Indiana. Again,
while an isolated pulse severe storm cannot be ruled out, think
sporadic hydrologic issues will be the more likely threat to
require monitoring. As the front exits the area late tonight into
early Monday morning, will rapidly taper off precip chances with
only the far southern area carrying a slight chance into the first
few hours of the day on Monday. The remainder of the short term
looks dry, although will have to monitor secondary cold frontal
passage Monday night into Tuesday as dewpoints will still be in
the 60s ahead of it.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable with minor tweaks
throughout the period, mainly late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that Canadian high pressure
will allow for dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday. Then, an upper trough will pivot east across the
Great Lakes and push a back door cold front across central Indiana
early next weekend. Regional blend suggests there could be a few
showers and thunderstorms around over all or parts of the area
starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, when the
front will likely move through. Temperatures should bounce back to
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday or
Friday. Look for lows in the 50s Wednesday night and the 60s the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 261200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Good confidence in VFR conditions through much of the period except
MVFR and possibly IFR at times in thunderstorms. The first batch of
convection should move into the LAF and HUF areas after 14z and IND
and BMG after 15z as a warm front moves across the area. Then, a
more solid line will be dropping southeast over the terminals 21z
and later this afternoon near and just ahead of an approaching cold
front per the HRRR. The HRRR is currently handling the convection
rather well. Things will be winding down tonight after the cold
front moves through.

Winds will be south and southwest today and increase to around 10
knots 14z-16z. Winds will then become west and northwest 7 knots or
less post frontal tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/MK/JH
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 261150
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
750 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...

The Near Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A frontal system will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to portions of the area. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe
threat is unlikely. Heat indices in the very humid airmass will
approach 100 degrees at times this afternoon. A secondary cold
front will bring relief from the heat Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area behind it. Dry conditions will
dominate much of the week, with low precipitation chances
returning as next weekend arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 750 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Slowed down pops this morning based on radar trends and the HRRR,
which has been handling the upstream convection well.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through the day as the
cold front approaches. While ample instability will be present
owing to the very warm and humid airmass ahead of the front, shear
is meager at best. Suppose the significant instability could
produce a pulse severe storm here or there, but do not expect
anything more than that. Hydrologic issues may be the more
pressing concern as precipitation efficiency should be quite high
with deep warm cloud owing to a freezing level pushing 14kft,
pseudotropical with very deep saturation, and storm motions which
are likely to be somewhat slow contributing to the potential for
some heavy rainfall. Additionally, observed rainfall in the last
week or two has been roughly 150 to as much as 400 percent of
normal in some portions of central Indiana. Will hit the flood
threat in the HWO.

Consensus temperatures looked reasonable with minor upward tweaks
where storms are expected to arrive latest in the day, mainly
south and southeast. Maximum heat index values will likely
approach and may briefly exceed 100 degrees across portions of the
area this afternoon. Indices should remain below advisory criteria
but will be mentioned in the HWO as this will be one of the hotter
days of the year thus far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Storm threat will persist into the evening across much of the area
and the overnight for at least portions of central Indiana. Again,
while an isolated pulse severe storm cannot be ruled out, think
sporadic hydrologic issues will be the more likely threat to
require monitoring. As the front exits the area late tonight into
early Monday morning, will rapidly taper off precip chances with
only the far southern area carrying a slight chance into the first
few hours of the day on Monday. The remainder of the short term
looks dry, although will have to monitor secondary cold frontal
passage Monday night into Tuesday as dewpoints will still be in
the 60s ahead of it.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable with minor tweaks
throughout the period, mainly late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that Canadian high pressure
will allow for dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday. Then, an upper trough will pivot east across the
Great Lakes and push a back door cold front across central Indiana
early next weekend. Regional blend suggests there could be a few
showers and thunderstorms around over all or parts of the area
starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, when the
front will likely move through. Temperatures should bounce back to
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday or
Friday. Look for lows in the 50s Wednesday night and the 60s the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 261200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Good confidence in VFR conditions through much of the period except
MVFR and possibly IFR at times in thunderstorms. The first batch of
convection should move into the LAF and HUF areas after 14z and IND
and BMG after 15z as a warm front moves across the area. Then, a
more solid line will be dropping southeast over the terminals 21z
and later this afternoon near and just ahead of an approaching cold
front per the HRRR. The HRRR is currently handling the convection
rather well. Things will be winding down tonight after the cold
front moves through.

Winds will be south and southwest today and increase to around 10
knots 14z-16z. Winds will then become west and northwest 7 knots or
less post frontal tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/MK
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 261150
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
750 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...

The Near Term section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A frontal system will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to portions of the area. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe
threat is unlikely. Heat indices in the very humid airmass will
approach 100 degrees at times this afternoon. A secondary cold
front will bring relief from the heat Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area behind it. Dry conditions will
dominate much of the week, with low precipitation chances
returning as next weekend arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 750 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Slowed down pops this morning based on radar trends and the HRRR,
which has been handling the upstream convection well.

Previous discussion follows...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through the day as the
cold front approaches. While ample instability will be present
owing to the very warm and humid airmass ahead of the front, shear
is meager at best. Suppose the significant instability could
produce a pulse severe storm here or there, but do not expect
anything more than that. Hydrologic issues may be the more
pressing concern as precipitation efficiency should be quite high
with deep warm cloud owing to a freezing level pushing 14kft,
pseudotropical with very deep saturation, and storm motions which
are likely to be somewhat slow contributing to the potential for
some heavy rainfall. Additionally, observed rainfall in the last
week or two has been roughly 150 to as much as 400 percent of
normal in some portions of central Indiana. Will hit the flood
threat in the HWO.

Consensus temperatures looked reasonable with minor upward tweaks
where storms are expected to arrive latest in the day, mainly
south and southeast. Maximum heat index values will likely
approach and may briefly exceed 100 degrees across portions of the
area this afternoon. Indices should remain below advisory criteria
but will be mentioned in the HWO as this will be one of the hotter
days of the year thus far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Storm threat will persist into the evening across much of the area
and the overnight for at least portions of central Indiana. Again,
while an isolated pulse severe storm cannot be ruled out, think
sporadic hydrologic issues will be the more likely threat to
require monitoring. As the front exits the area late tonight into
early Monday morning, will rapidly taper off precip chances with
only the far southern area carrying a slight chance into the first
few hours of the day on Monday. The remainder of the short term
looks dry, although will have to monitor secondary cold frontal
passage Monday night into Tuesday as dewpoints will still be in
the 60s ahead of it.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable with minor tweaks
throughout the period, mainly late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that Canadian high pressure
will allow for dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday. Then, an upper trough will pivot east across the
Great Lakes and push a back door cold front across central Indiana
early next weekend. Regional blend suggests there could be a few
showers and thunderstorms around over all or parts of the area
starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, when the
front will likely move through. Temperatures should bounce back to
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday or
Friday. Look for lows in the 50s Wednesday night and the 60s the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 261200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Good confidence in VFR conditions through much of the period except
MVFR and possibly IFR at times in thunderstorms. The first batch of
convection should move into the LAF and HUF areas after 14z and IND
and BMG after 15z as a warm front moves across the area. Then, a
more solid line will be dropping southeast over the terminals 21z
and later this afternoon near and just ahead of an approaching cold
front per the HRRR. The HRRR is currently handling the convection
rather well. Things will be winding down tonight after the cold
front moves through.

Winds will be south and southwest today and increase to around 10
knots 14z-16z. Winds will then become west and northwest 7 knots or
less post frontal tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/MK
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 261057
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
657 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 525 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to
east today as an upper level system moves into the area. Isolated
wind gusts greater than 50 mph and heavy rain will be the main
threats with thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening.
Highs today will be near 90 with heat indices rising to near 100
degrees this afternoon. A drier and eventually cooler weather
pattern will then settle in for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Very warm and humid air will spread northeast into the forecast area
today. Have issued a heat advisory for most of northern Indiana
until 6 pm EDT given a very warm start with early morning
temperatures in the 70s and given very humid air just upstream. Some
clouds may hinder the warmup today, but the heat index over much of
northern Indiana should rise to around 100 degrees later today.

A large area of thunderstorms extended across Iowa into Wisconsin
early this morning ahead of an upper trof. These storms will move
east later today. Wind directions in the lower atmosphere should be
relatively unidirectional and wind speed under 30 knots.  Mid level
lapse rates will be relatively stable, close to 6.0C/Km. CAPE values
should rise to between 1500 and 2000 J/Kg per latest BUFKIT high
resolution soundings. Given favorable diurnal timing, some storms
will likely become strong and produce wind gusts in excess of 50
mph. Precipitable water values should climb above 2.0 inches so
heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

An upper level trof is expected to amplify this upcoming week and
bring dry and relatively cool weather to the area during the middle
of the week. The cold front should move across the area late Monday.
Lakeshore hazards along the southeast shore of Lake Michigan are
likely Monday night into Tuesday as winds become northwest behind
the front. Cooler weather will return during the middle of the week
as the long wave trof becomes established over eastern North
America. Lows should dip well into the 50s Tuesday night.  Highs
should be in the 70s to around 80 from Tuesday through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

line of shra/ts from central lake michigan to ern IA was making
steady eastward progress but appears to be outrunning its forcing
so expect it will dissipate before reaching nrn IN this morning with
a new line forming this aftn over the area. Little change to
previous TAFS with vfr conditions fcst except during a tempo tsra
during the aftn when flight conditions should lower to at least
mvfr.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 6 PM EDT /5 PM
     CDT/ this evening for INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-
     032.

MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIWX 261057
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
657 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 525 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from west to
east today as an upper level system moves into the area. Isolated
wind gusts greater than 50 mph and heavy rain will be the main
threats with thunderstorms this afternoon and early this evening.
Highs today will be near 90 with heat indices rising to near 100
degrees this afternoon. A drier and eventually cooler weather
pattern will then settle in for much of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Very warm and humid air will spread northeast into the forecast area
today. Have issued a heat advisory for most of northern Indiana
until 6 pm EDT given a very warm start with early morning
temperatures in the 70s and given very humid air just upstream. Some
clouds may hinder the warmup today, but the heat index over much of
northern Indiana should rise to around 100 degrees later today.

A large area of thunderstorms extended across Iowa into Wisconsin
early this morning ahead of an upper trof. These storms will move
east later today. Wind directions in the lower atmosphere should be
relatively unidirectional and wind speed under 30 knots.  Mid level
lapse rates will be relatively stable, close to 6.0C/Km. CAPE values
should rise to between 1500 and 2000 J/Kg per latest BUFKIT high
resolution soundings. Given favorable diurnal timing, some storms
will likely become strong and produce wind gusts in excess of 50
mph. Precipitable water values should climb above 2.0 inches so
heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

An upper level trof is expected to amplify this upcoming week and
bring dry and relatively cool weather to the area during the middle
of the week. The cold front should move across the area late Monday.
Lakeshore hazards along the southeast shore of Lake Michigan are
likely Monday night into Tuesday as winds become northwest behind
the front. Cooler weather will return during the middle of the week
as the long wave trof becomes established over eastern North
America. Lows should dip well into the 50s Tuesday night.  Highs
should be in the 70s to around 80 from Tuesday through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

line of shra/ts from central lake michigan to ern IA was making
steady eastward progress but appears to be outrunning its forcing
so expect it will dissipate before reaching nrn IN this morning with
a new line forming this aftn over the area. Little change to
previous TAFS with vfr conditions fcst except during a tempo tsra
during the aftn when flight conditions should lower to at least
mvfr.

&&

.IWX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IN...Heat Advisory from noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 6 PM EDT /5 PM
     CDT/ this evening for INZ003>006-008-012>017-020-022>025-
     032.

MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Skipper
SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper
AVIATION...JT


Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana




000
FXUS63 KIND 261032
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A frontal system will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to portions of the area. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe
threat is unlikely. Heat indices in the very humid airmass will
approach 100 degrees at times this afternoon. A secondary cold
front will bring relief from the heat Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area behind it. Dry conditions will
dominate much of the week, with low precipitation chances
returning as next weekend arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through the day as the
cold front approaches. While ample instability will be present
owing to the very warm and humid airmass ahead of the front, shear
is meager at best. Suppose the significant instability could
produce a pulse severe storm here or there, but do not expect
anything more than that. Hydrologic issues may be the more
pressing concern as precipitation efficiency should be quite high
with deep warm cloud owing to a freezing level pushing 14kft,
pseudotropical with very deep saturation, and storm motions which
are likely to be somewhat slow contributing to the potential for
some heavy rainfall. Additionally, observed rainfall in the last
week or two has been roughly 150 to as much as 400 percent of
normal in some portions of central Indiana. Will hit the flood
threat in the HWO.

Consensus temperatures looked reasonable with minor upward tweaks
where storms are expected to arrive latest in the day, mainly
south and southeast. Maximum heat index values will likely
approach and may briefly exceed 100 degrees across portions of the
area this afternoon. Indices should remain below advisory criteria
but will be mentioned in the HWO as this will be one of the hotter
days of the year thus far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Storm threat will persist into the evening across much of the area
and the overnight for at least portions of central Indiana. Again,
while an isolated pulse severe storm cannot be ruled out, think
sporadic hydrologic issues will be the more likely threat to
require monitoring. As the front exits the area late tonight into
early Monday morning, will rapidly taper off precip chances with
only the far southern area carrying a slight chance into the first
few hours of the day on Monday. The remainder of the short term
looks dry, although will have to monitor secondary cold frontal
passage Monday night into Tuesday as dewpoints will still be in
the 60s ahead of it.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable with minor tweaks
throughout the period, mainly late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that Canadian high pressure
will allow for dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday. Then, an upper trough will pivot east across the
Great Lakes and push a back door cold front across central Indiana
early next weekend. Regional blend suggests there could be a few
showers and thunderstorms around over all or parts of the area
starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, when the
front will likely move through. Temperatures should bounce back to
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday or
Friday. Look for lows in the 50s Wednesday night and the 60s the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 261200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Good confidence in VFR conditions through much of the period except
MVFR and possibly IFR at times in thunderstorms. The first batch of
convection should move into the LAF and HUF areas after 14z and IND
and BMG after 15z as a warm front moves across the area. Then, a
more solid line will be dropping southeast over the terminals 21z
and later this afternoon near and just ahead of an approaching cold
front per the HRRR. The HRRR is currently handling the convection
rather well. Things will be winding down tonight after the cold
front moves through.

Winds will be south and southwest today and increase to around 10
knots 14z-16z. Winds will then become west and northwest 7 knots or
less post frontal tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 261032
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
632 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A frontal system will move through the area this afternoon and
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to portions of the area. An
isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out, but a widespread severe
threat is unlikely. Heat indices in the very humid airmass will
approach 100 degrees at times this afternoon. A secondary cold
front will bring relief from the heat Monday night into Tuesday as
high pressure builds into the area behind it. Dry conditions will
dominate much of the week, with low precipitation chances
returning as next weekend arrives.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Today/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Thunderstorm chances will steadily increase through the day as the
cold front approaches. While ample instability will be present
owing to the very warm and humid airmass ahead of the front, shear
is meager at best. Suppose the significant instability could
produce a pulse severe storm here or there, but do not expect
anything more than that. Hydrologic issues may be the more
pressing concern as precipitation efficiency should be quite high
with deep warm cloud owing to a freezing level pushing 14kft,
pseudotropical with very deep saturation, and storm motions which
are likely to be somewhat slow contributing to the potential for
some heavy rainfall. Additionally, observed rainfall in the last
week or two has been roughly 150 to as much as 400 percent of
normal in some portions of central Indiana. Will hit the flood
threat in the HWO.

Consensus temperatures looked reasonable with minor upward tweaks
where storms are expected to arrive latest in the day, mainly
south and southeast. Maximum heat index values will likely
approach and may briefly exceed 100 degrees across portions of the
area this afternoon. Indices should remain below advisory criteria
but will be mentioned in the HWO as this will be one of the hotter
days of the year thus far.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Storm threat will persist into the evening across much of the area
and the overnight for at least portions of central Indiana. Again,
while an isolated pulse severe storm cannot be ruled out, think
sporadic hydrologic issues will be the more likely threat to
require monitoring. As the front exits the area late tonight into
early Monday morning, will rapidly taper off precip chances with
only the far southern area carrying a slight chance into the first
few hours of the day on Monday. The remainder of the short term
looks dry, although will have to monitor secondary cold frontal
passage Monday night into Tuesday as dewpoints will still be in
the 60s ahead of it.

Consensus temperatures appeared reasonable with minor tweaks
throughout the period, mainly late in the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models and ensembles in good agreement that Canadian high pressure
will allow for dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures
through Thursday. Then, an upper trough will pivot east across the
Great Lakes and push a back door cold front across central Indiana
early next weekend. Regional blend suggests there could be a few
showers and thunderstorms around over all or parts of the area
starting Thursday night and continuing through Saturday, when the
front will likely move through. Temperatures should bounce back to
near normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s by Thursday or
Friday. Look for lows in the 50s Wednesday night and the 60s the
rest of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION (Discussion for the 261200Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Good confidence in VFR conditions through much of the period except
MVFR and possibly IFR at times in thunderstorms. The first batch of
convection should move into the LAF and HUF areas after 14z and IND
and BMG after 15z as a warm front moves across the area. Then, a
more solid line will be dropping southeast over the terminals 21z
and later this afternoon near and just ahead of an approaching cold
front per the HRRR. The HRRR is currently handling the convection
rather well. Things will be winding down tonight after the cold
front moves through.

Winds will be south and southwest today and increase to around 10
knots 14z-16z. Winds will then become west and northwest 7 knots or
less post frontal tonight.

&&

.IND Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities