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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON TDAY WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 290846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON TDAY WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 290846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON TDAY WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 290846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 443 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK DISTURBANCES WITH
COLD AIR ALOFT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS ON TDAY WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WV IMAGERY INDICATING COUPLE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO DROP SSEWD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING OF MOST SIGNIFICANT
IMPULSE TO REACH NWRN CWA ABOUT 18-19 UTC. SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
5H COLD POOL SETTLES ACROSS NORTHERN CWA WITH M16-17C...PROVIDING
IMPRESSIVE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40C SURFACE/5H DIFFERENTIALS.
MODIFIED NAM12/RUC POINT SOUNDINGS WITH LOWER 70S/ABOUT 53F
CONSISTENTLY YIELDS 500-750 J/KG. NOTABLY SMALL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
LCL TO LFC SHOULD PROMOTE AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. INITIALLY SOME CONCERN THAT BULK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LACKING...THOUGH AMDAR SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LAYER
MOISTURE WITHIN 850-740MB. LOW POPS RAMPING BY MIDDAY WITH HIGHEST
NORTHEAST CWA COINCIDENT WITH GREATER INSTABILITY/REMOVED FROM
COOLER LAKE MODIFIED ENVIRONMENT PLUS TIMING OF SHORTWAVE AND
CONVERGENT SIGNATURE IN LOWEST 100 MB. ALSO OPTED FOR COVERAGE
TYPE WORDING IN THIS AREA AS WELL. LOW/8.5-9KFT WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL COLD PROFILE COULD LEAD TO SMALL HAIL
PRODUCTION ASSOCD WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. CONVECTION HIGHLY TIED
TO DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE WITH LITTLE MORE THAN DECAYING SHOWERS
TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...MAINLY INTO NWRN CWA/POSSIBLE SE EXTENSION
OF STRONGER SBCAPE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN WI. SLIGHT DOWNWARD
NUDGE TO TEMPS TODAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN OHIO MORE PROXIMAL TO
925MB THERMAL TROF.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH
TROFFING DOWNSTREAM FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
CAPE VALUES AS HIGH AS 500 TO 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE OPTIMUM LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FOR HAIL...SO EXPECT SMALL
HAIL IS VERY POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS AND
CANADIAN ANALOGS BOTH SUPPORT A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH A NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS/ECMWF 850 MB FORECAST TEMPERATURES FAVOR
THE COOLER GFS/MEAN MEX NUMBERS...SO HAVE FORECAST BELOW THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN. ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY
GIVEN GFS/ECMWF/GEM MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





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000
FXUS63 KIND 290828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BROUGHT IN LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS PER TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 290828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BROUGHT IN LIGHTER NORTHWEST WINDS PER TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 290745
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 290745
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED OVER JAMES BAY WILL IMPACT
CENTRAL INDIANA/S WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES /MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES/ THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
LIFT WILL BE BEST FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...BUT IT WILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO HAVE ANY
IMPACT ON CENTRAL INDIANA. DUE TO THE LIMITED DYNAMICS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND NO MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY COOLER NAM WITH TODAY/S HIGHS
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THIS PUTS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DAILY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

ALL MODELS KEEP A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED OVER EASTERN
CANADA FOR THE DURATION OF SHORT TERM PERIOD. WEAK WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW...ENHANCING ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
EACH DAY. THE NIGHTS WILL BE DRY THOUGH WITH A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER. AT THIS TIME...NO POPS HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE
ARE NECESSARY DURING ANY GIVEN PERIOD.

THERE WILL BE A VERY GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. THIS WAS CAPTURED
WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 290638
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND RESULTANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN LONG
TERM FOCUS.

EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO START TO DIVERGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
THE 00Z GFS AND GEM BREAK DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SWING IT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
12Z ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AND ALSO
RETAINS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...JUST IN...THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS PUSHING THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK PER
THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS. SO...WILL GO WITH DRY CONDITIONS
MONDAY WITH WARMER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AFTER A BELOW NORMAL
END TO JULY AND START TO AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIWX 290555
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290555
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
UPSTREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH EXTREMELY COLD MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILES SHOULD EASILY GENERATE CU FIELD COINCIDENT WITH MID/LATE
AM SURFACE HEATING. PRESENCE OF MOISTURE PER AMDAR SOUNDINGS IN
850-740MB LAYER AS WELL AS DEGREE OF SURFACE TO 5H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS SUGGEST EVEN POTENTIAL FOR SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WITH
PEAK HEATING. AT PRESENT HAVE ONLY ADDED MENTION VCSH TO KFWA PER
TIMING OF IMPULSE AND SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SIGNALS PRESENTING WELL INLAND OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 290432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 290432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 290432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 290432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY ON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION
VERY LATE TONIGHT MAY BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS
OF THE AREA VERY LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS
TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS 4-5 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON AS DAYTIME
HEATING OCCURS.  WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE KIND
AND KHUF NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM DAYTIME HEATING AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT.  HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO EVEN MENTION VCTS
IN TAFS.

LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. .

VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST UP TO 10 KNOTS
TUESDAY AND LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290227
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 290227
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 290215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 290215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1012 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AND LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO
SO BASED ON CURRENT TEMP TRENDS WHICH HAVE BEEN FALLING FASTER THAN
GUIDANCE EXPECTED. THUS...A RECORD MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 50 DEGREES
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE INDIANAPOLIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT
WITH RECORD LOWS...51 DEGREES FOR INDIANAPOLIS. WITH A BIT OF A
GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT
GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL BE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT TO
SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS CLOSE
TO MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...MRD/CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL MIXING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF VFR LOW CLOUDS WORKING
INTO KSBN OVERNIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. HIGHER STABILITY WITH LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER POTENTIAL AT KSBN. WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM BOTH
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WEST WINDS EARLY
TUESDAY SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT SFC TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 290053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL MIXING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF VFR LOW CLOUDS WORKING
INTO KSBN OVERNIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. HIGHER STABILITY WITH LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER POTENTIAL AT KSBN. WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM BOTH
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WEST WINDS EARLY
TUESDAY SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT SFC TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL MIXING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF VFR LOW CLOUDS WORKING
INTO KSBN OVERNIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. HIGHER STABILITY WITH LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER POTENTIAL AT KSBN. WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM BOTH
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WEST WINDS EARLY
TUESDAY SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT SFC TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 290053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
853 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VORT MAX DROPPING ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE HURON THIS EVENING HAS
ALLOWED FOR LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST PAST DIURNAL PEAK HEATING...BUT
SHOULD DIMINISH OVER NEXT FEW HOURS AS THIS VORT MAX SLIDES INTO
SOUTHEAST ONTARIO. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LATER THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO BUILD
BACK INTO FAR NORTHWEST LOCATIONS LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. ONLY
OTHER CHANGE THAT MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR EVENING UPDATE IS SLIGHTLY
COOLER MINS...WITH SOME LOCALIZED UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 822 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL MIXING...WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF VFR LOW CLOUDS WORKING
INTO KSBN OVERNIGHT. NEXT UPSTREAM VORT MAX TO DROP INTO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING DURING PEAK HEATING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. HIGHER STABILITY WITH LAKE MICHIGAN SHADOW SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER POTENTIAL AT KSBN. WILL OMIT ANY PRECIP MENTION FROM BOTH
TERMINALS AT THIS TIME...WITH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. WEST WINDS EARLY
TUESDAY SHOULD VEER NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS NEXT SFC TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 282307
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 282307
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 290000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR BY MID
EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW CU AND WILL MENTION THAT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT MAY
BRING A LITTLE MORE STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA VERY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO SEE BROKEN CLOUDS
AT OR ABOVE 4 THOUSAND FEET BY LATE MORNING ON.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT 10KTS OR
LESS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 282025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 282100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU
WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS
MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 281940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281940
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
340 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. AND CONTROL THE WEATHER OVER INDIANA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DAILY AFTERNOON
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

ONCE THE SUN SETS DIURNAL CU SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AND SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT IF NOT BEFORE. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH
RECORD LOWS /51 FOR INDIANAPOLIS/ BUT RIGHT NOW THINK THE CITY WILL
STAY WILL ABOVE THAT. WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT STILL ACROSS THE AREA
THINK WINDS WILL DROP OFF BUT NOT GO CALM AND BEST SUBSIDENCE WILL
STILL BE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR STAYING ABOVE THE
RECORD. EXPECT TO SEE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR LOWS ACROSS THE
AREA WHICH IS CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT OVER JAMES BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL WAVES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TROUGH BUT THEY SHOULD NEED THE HELP OF AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GET ANY PRECIP GOING. EXPECT TO SEE CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AT
NIGHT WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS EVERY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON
THURSDAY. GENERALLY MODEL/GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281939
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281939
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION.T HERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

A PLEASANT BUT COLD PERIOD WILL BE IN STORE AS POCKET OF COLDER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR A RAPID DROP IN TEMPS.
LATER TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW AND BRING
AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS. CHALLENGE COMES WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDER STARTING MID MORNING TUES INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. 500 MB TEMPS GET TOWARDS -16 C IN THE NORTH AND EAST...BUT
OVERALL LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB RATHER POOR. 1000-850 MB LAPSE
RATES NOT BAD AND ENOUGH TO GET CU POPPING AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED
TO AT BEST SCT SHOWERS. MODELS VARY...BUT DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 1KM
MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 400 J/KG (SREF) AND 1000 J/KG (NAM). THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE LEFT AT
SLGT CHC FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

IN LIGHT OF CONSENSUS POSITIONING OF MID LVL TROUGH AND DRY AIRMASS
RESIDING OVR THE LAKES THREW OUT ALLBLEND POP GUIDANCE AS
UNSEASONABLE COOL LAKE COMPOSITE THETA-E SINK CONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281844
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281844
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR THE REGION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
EXTENDED. PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROMOTE DAILY THREATS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AS SPOKES OF
ENERGY ALOFT ROTATE AROUND THE PARENT TROUGH. WILL CARRY 30-40
POPS MOST AFTERNOONS DURING PEAK HEATING.

INDICATIONS THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ENABLING A SUBTLE WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY
MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...GRADUALLY WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S BY
MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281811
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 281811
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
211 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
IN AND DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST. WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID
CLOUDS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 281738
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281738
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281738
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281738
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 281800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN VFR
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.

STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCU DECK SLOWLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS REMAIN GENERALLY AT 2000-2500FT BUT AS THE
INVERSION WEAKENS...EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT UP TO CLOSER TO 4KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. CU WILL SCATTER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN EARLY
THIS EVENING. N/NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 20-25KTS AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
IS LIKELY TO SPREAD VFR STRATOCU BACK INTO PARTS OF THE AREA FOR
TUESDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10KTS OR LESS
THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRATUS DECK REMAINS SOLID AT KIND...WITH BOTH KBMG AND KLAF NEAR
THE BACK EDGE. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING STRATUS TO LIFT AND
BEGIN TO BREAK UP. GOING TO HOLD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS CLIMBING ABOVE 3KFT THEREAFTER. CU GRADUALLY
DECREASES IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
N/NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 281426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 281500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRATUS DECK REMAINS SOLID AT KIND...WITH BOTH KBMG AND KLAF NEAR
THE BACK EDGE. LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INVERSION WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING STRATUS TO LIFT AND
BEGIN TO BREAK UP. GOING TO HOLD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH CIGS CLIMBING ABOVE 3KFT THEREAFTER. CU GRADUALLY
DECREASES IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES.
N/NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 281346
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
946 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281346
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
946 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 940 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE LOOP AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS A
BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BROUGHT IN
LOWER DEW POINTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE DRIER AIR ADVECTING
IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MADE NO CHANGES TO POPS OR
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/CP
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 281109
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
709 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 281109
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
709 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LINGERING MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-MORNING. AFTER THAT...VFR SHOULD BE THE
PREVAILING FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 15 KTS AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KIND AND KLAF...THEY WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WELL MIXED/MOIST RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AM WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
FUELING/ALTERNATE CONDITIONS AT KFWA IN HEART OF RICHER MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE BKN HIGH END MVFR CU FIELD THROUGH MID/LATE
AM IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE/RELATIVE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THEREAFTER VFR MET CONDITIONS AS CU FIELD TO RAPIDLY LIFTS/
DISINTEGRATE WITH RISING CONDENSATION LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR ENTRAINS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 281057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

WELL MIXED/MOIST RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AM WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
FUELING/ALTERNATE CONDITIONS AT KFWA IN HEART OF RICHER MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE BKN HIGH END MVFR CU FIELD THROUGH MID/LATE
AM IN RESIDUAL MOISTURE/RELATIVE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THEREAFTER VFR MET CONDITIONS AS CU FIELD TO RAPIDLY LIFTS/
DISINTEGRATE WITH RISING CONDENSATION LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER
AIR ENTRAINS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280834
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRONG 20-25KT NWRLY FLOW THROUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS DECK TO COVER NORTHERN IN/LOWER MI PENINSULA. ADDITIVE
LAKE MI MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS SW LWR MI
THAT COULD EFFECT KSBN AND COVER WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
AM HOURS. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE
ENVIRONMENT AND LET PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
SUFFICE UNTIL 14 UTC. THEREAFTER...GREATER MIXING AND EXTREMELY
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RISING CU BASES WITH RELATIVELY RAPID
CLOUD COVERAGE DECAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 280834
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
434 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER
70S...EXCEPT UPPER 60S CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

BENIGN NEAR TERM WITH EXPUNGEMENT OF WARM/MOIST AIRMASS. VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE VORTEX PRESENTLY OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY. WHEREUPON VORTEX IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD BY STALWART BLOCKING REGIME OVER NORTHERN/WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND RIDGING FROM TEXAS PLATEAU NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTH
CENTRAL CANADA. PRIMARY NORTHERN QUEBEC LONGWAVE TO GRADUALLY
RETROGRADE TO JAMES BAY BY 12 UTC TUE. SURFACE DEWPOINTS TYPICALLY
10-15F COOLER OVER 24 HOURS PRIOR...PRIMARILY IN MID/UPPER 50S.
NAM12 AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR3KM ATTEMPT TO GENERATE LIGHT SHRA BY
MIDDAY EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SERN CWA. MODIFIED POINT
SOUNDINGS OF 79/56 YIELD ONLY LTE 200 J/KG AND SUSPECT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR AOA 750 MB TO PROVIDE AMPLE DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR ENTRAINMENT TO
HINDER CU FIELDS VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND LEAN TOWARD CONTINUED DRY
FORECAST. 925MB THERMAL TROF UPSTREAM THIS AM FROM LAKE HURON SWD
THROUGH NORTHERN LOWER MI TO SOUTHERN WI...AND PROGGED OVERHEAD BY
00 UTC TUE. THIS ALONG WITH EASTWARD EXTENSION OF NORTHERN PLAINS
RIDGE INTO NORTHERN IL/NWRN IN SHOULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
DECOUPLE/STRONG LONGWAVE LOSSES FOR LOWS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F BELOW
CLIMO TONIGHT. SOME CONCERN THAT HIGH BASED STRATOCU DECK MAY IN
ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER
PRESENCE UNCERTAIN AND TIMING SHOULD BE LATE ENOUGH TO HAVE ALREADY
ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO LWR 50S BY THE EARLY AM HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PARKED
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...HAVE
ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. ON TUESDAY...COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES TO RISE TO
BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG PER MODIFIED NAM/WRF SOUNDING. THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK UPSTREAM ENERGY SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...GFS AND ECMWF
850 MB FORECAST TEMPS WERE VERY UNIFORM FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...GENERALLY BETWEEN 11C AND 13C. FAVOR THE GFS MEAN ENSEMBLE
TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRONG 20-25KT NWRLY FLOW THROUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS DECK TO COVER NORTHERN IN/LOWER MI PENINSULA. ADDITIVE
LAKE MI MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS SW LWR MI
THAT COULD EFFECT KSBN AND COVER WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
AM HOURS. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE
ENVIRONMENT AND LET PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
SUFFICE UNTIL 14 UTC. THEREAFTER...GREATER MIXING AND EXTREMELY
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RISING CU BASES WITH RELATIVELY RAPID
CLOUD COVERAGE DECAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 280815
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 280815
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280815
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280815
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 414 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 280751
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
351 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESIDES OVER
EASTERN CANADA. WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT LOW
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ENHANCING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT
TIMES. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST FOR DURATION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280601
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FROM
TIME TO TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES AND WHETHER
OR NOT TO INCLUDE POPS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING UPPER TROUGH NEAR DETROIT AND
PIVOTING EAST TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AROUND THE BASE OF VORTEX JUST EAST
OF JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
MODEL TIME SECTIONS WERE SHOWING DECENT LINGERING MOISTURE 800
MILLIBARS AND BELOW ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT DRIER ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS. MODELS WERE ALSO SHOWING
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON CAPE. HOWEVER...WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL LEAVE
POPS OUT. DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU.

WITH 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES CELSIUS THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOL SIDE OF 00Z MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

SHORT FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS POPS AS MODELS
SUGGEST DEEPENING MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW MAY
PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME.

MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE 00Z MOS ARE ALL HINTING AT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...DESPITE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE...NO SIGNIFICANT WAVES
ARE ADVERTISED TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SO AM
INCLINED TO GO WITH ONLY SMALL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING POPS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS DO
HAVE SOME INSTABILITY FORECASTED WITH THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. SO...WILL ALSO STICK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
AS OPPOSED TO JUST SHOWERS DESPITE THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURE FORECASTING SUGGESTS GOING COOLER THAN 00Z
MOS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT AROUND 80
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 AND FOCUSED ALONG DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LINKED
TO SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SHARPENED BY
MARINE INFLUENCE AND SEVERAL RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...AND WHILE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRONG 20-25KT NWRLY FLOW THROUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS DECK TO COVER NORTHERN IN/LOWER MI PENINSULA. ADDITIVE
LAKE MI MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS SW LWR MI
THAT COULD EFFECT KSBN AND COVER WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
AM HOURS. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE
ENVIRONMENT AND LET PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
SUFFICE UNTIL 14 UTC. THEREAFTER...GREATER MIXING AND EXTREMELY
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RISING CU BASES WITH RELATIVELY RAPID
CLOUD COVERAGE DECAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 280551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED STORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 AND FOCUSED ALONG DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LINKED
TO SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SHARPENED BY
MARINE INFLUENCE AND SEVERAL RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...AND WHILE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

STRONG 20-25KT NWRLY FLOW THROUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR
STRATUS DECK TO COVER NORTHERN IN/LOWER MI PENINSULA. ADDITIVE
LAKE MI MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR SOME LOWER CIGS ACROSS SW LWR MI
THAT COULD EFFECT KSBN AND COVER WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS THROUGH EARLY
AM HOURS. MORE OPTIMISTIC AT KFWA FARTHER REMOVED FROM LAKE
ENVIRONMENT AND LET PREDOMINANT FUELING/ALTERNATE REQUIREMENTS
SUFFICE UNTIL 14 UTC. THEREAFTER...GREATER MIXING AND EXTREMELY
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL AID IN RISING CU BASES WITH RELATIVELY RAPID
CLOUD COVERAGE DECAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 280504
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PULLED LOW POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE
SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FALL APART BEFORE MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280504
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PULLED LOW POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE
SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FALL APART BEFORE MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 28/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 103 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BUILD SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  THESE SYSTEMS WILL
KEEP US UNDER A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WERE OCCURRING EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA AND
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS INDICATE THESE CEILINGS MAY SPREAD SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT LEAST INTO THE KLAF AND KIND BY 09Z-10Z. NOT SURE ABOUT
KHUF AND KBMG AND WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS THERE.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY LATE
MORNING. MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND
NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 KNOTS MONDAY.  WINDS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 8 KNOTS
OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 280428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1228 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

PULLED LOW POPS NORTHERN COUNTIES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE
SHOWN A FEW SHOWERS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FALL APART BEFORE MAKING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 280229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 280229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 280229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 280229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIWX 280043
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
843 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION. MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 AND FOCUSED ALONG DISTINCT
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE LINKED
TO SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SHARPENED BY
MARINE INFLUENCE AND SEVERAL RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. AXIS OF
GREATEST INSTABILITY HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA...AND WHILE
MAINTENANCE OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO...STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUBSEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. SOME SMALL TWEAKS MADE TO POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SECONDARY SFC TROUGH HAS CLEARED TERMINALS AT 00Z...AND POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE
EVENING. AN AREA OF MODERATE STRONG PRESSURE RISES OF 3-4 MB/3 HR
IS WORKING INTO NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND WILL PROVIDE BRIEF
ENHANCEMENT TO STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH 01Z OR 02Z. COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND PARENT SYSTEM
WILL YIELD POTENTIAL OF SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DIURNAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWEST GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS ON MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 280016
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 280016
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
816 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 814 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

HAVE REMOVED THUNDER THREAT FROM VINCENNES TO SEYMOUR OR ALL
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NOW THAT STORMS HAVE MOVED ON.

HAVE ADDED A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING FROM KOKOMO TO MUNCIE
AND WINCHESTER AS INSTABILITY SHOWERS WRAP SOUTHEAST FROM UPPER
LOW OVER GREAT LAKES.

REST OF FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNCHANGED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 272259
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DROPPING RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER ANYWHERE BEHIND CURRENT SCATTERED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL EXIT AREA BY SUNDOWN AND
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT SOME PATCHY
CLOUD TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

CURRENT GUSTINESS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN BY DARK WHILE STEADY WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 272259
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DROPPING RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER ANYWHERE BEHIND CURRENT SCATTERED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL EXIT AREA BY SUNDOWN AND
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT SOME PATCHY
CLOUD TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

CURRENT GUSTINESS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN BY DARK WHILE STEADY WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 280000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF TAF SITES BY 00Z. HOWEVER THEY
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KBMG TO CARRY VCTS FOR ABOUT A HALF AN HOUR.
OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY FOR MAINLY KIND AND KLAF AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MY CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CEILINGS REACH KHUF AND KBMG ARE LESS AND WILL
ONLY MENTION TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW.

LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS INDICATE A MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  WINDS WILL BE
NORTHWEST 8 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS MONDAY.

MODELS INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
ALL AREAS WILL BECOME VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 272233
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DROPPING RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER ANYWHERE BEHIND CURRENT SCATTERED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL EXIT AREA BY SUNDOWN AND
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT SOME PATCHY
CLOUD TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

CURRENT GUSTINESS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN BY DARK WHILE STEADY WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 272100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. THESE STORMS MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS...AS WELL AS BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 272233
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DROPPING RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER ANYWHERE BEHIND CURRENT SCATTERED
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THESE WILL EXIT AREA BY SUNDOWN AND
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BE DRY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD ADVECTION ALOFT EXPECT SOME PATCHY
CLOUD TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN CYCLONIC FLOW.

CURRENT GUSTINESS WILL ALSO DIE DOWN BY DARK WHILE STEADY WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DROP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

KEEPING MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 272100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. THESE STORMS MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS...AS WELL AS BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 272024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 272100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. THESE STORMS MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS...AS WELL AS BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 272024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 272100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 00Z. THESE STORMS MAY
BRING WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS...AS WELL AS BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE STORMS. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IN AN
UNSEASONABLY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271914
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271914
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271914
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271914
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LOCKED ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EVERY DAY AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND COOLING
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS WILL RESIDE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PEAK HEATING.

PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM. EXPECT HIGHS UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 EACH DAY WITH LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 271905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
DROP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 271905
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT
DROP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT ON LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT EDGES
EAST OVER A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. SVR WATCH 446 HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FA WITH CONVECTIVE LINE ALREADY INTO NW
INDIANA/SW LOWER MI AS OF 1830Z GIVEN MLCAPE EROSION WITH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. RESULTING
SBCAPE RESERVOIR NEAR 3000 J/KG AMID 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FAVORS ORGANIZATION AND THIS HAIL/WIND THREAT. THE TORNADO
RISK REMAINS LOW GIVEN MEAGER 0-1 KM HELICITY/SHEAR VALUES.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO LINGER
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO THIS EVENING UNDER
A COMPACT CLOSED LOW FCST TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES FROM CENTRAL WI.

CAA REGIME IN DEEPENING NNW FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE/CDFNT SHOULD ENSURE DRY/MUCH COOLER WEATHER LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STEADY STATE AMPLIFIED FLW REGIME XPCD TO CONT THROUGH THIS
PD...ANCHORED OUT WEST BY UPR RIDGE EXTNDG NWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA
AND EAST BY DEEP UPR LOW CNTRD NR JAMES BAY. AS A RESULT XPC CONTD
DRY NWRLY LL FLW AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PD.

SOME CONVOLUTED SUGGESTION IN SOME MED RANGE GUIDANCE OF TERTIARY
DISTURBANCES WRAPPING THROUGH THE BASE OF MID LVL THROUGH CNTRD
THROUGH THE ERN LAKES...PARTICULARLY THE OP GFS DEPICTION ON TUE/
WED. HWVR IT STANDS ALONE IN DROPPING A SW DISTURBANCE WELL SWD OF
ANY OTHER GUIDANCE. AS SUCH WILL HOLD W/DRY WX THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 271801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INDIANA IS GOING TO BE IN A VERY PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.  THIS SITUATION
WILL FAVOR COLD FRONTS PASSING OUR STATE EVERY FEW DAYS

ONE RESULT SHOULD BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER RESULT WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT.

THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTER INDIANA THIS EVENING.

AT THE SAME TIME PRESSURE FIELDS ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC POTENTIAL
VORTICITY SURFACE HAVE A STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSING AROUND 00Z. WITH
BOTH THE BOUNDARY AND THE FORCING ALOFT...THERE IS CHANCE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

GIVEN DRY AIR WILL BE STARTING TO ENTER THE AREA...STORMS WITH
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

WHILE ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OVER BY MIDNIGHT...CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS IS APT TO PERSIST IN A CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE. ITS TOUGH TO OUTDO THEM
SOON AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE. TO THE EXTENT THEY DIFFER...A
CONSENSUS WILL BE USED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 201 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE CHANCE OF RAIN.

THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSE. THEY ALL GENERATE
RAIN ON AND OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS SEEMS LOGICAL. A
CYCLONIC FLOW SEEMS LIKELY KEEP SOME MOISTURE AROUND AND BRING A
SERIES OF TROUGHS.

ANOTHER FACTOR FAVORING RAIN IS TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE GOING TO BE
CHILLY...WHICH SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT DURING THE
DAYLIGHT PERIODS.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DOES ALMOST NOTHING TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THIS IN ITS POPS. THE MET POPS LOOK MUCH BETTER WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE DAYTIME PERIODS.

THE SAME FACTORS PRODUCING THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CAUSE SKIES TO
REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS CLOSE EXCEPT FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS LIKELY
REFLECTS THE DETERMINISTIC FIELDS OF THE MODELS BEING SIMILAR.
A CONSENSUS APPROACH TO CAPTURE THE BEST OF EACH FORECAST TECHNIQUE
SHOULD WORK WELL.

WEDNESDAY IS DIFFERENT. THE MAV BECOMES CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN
THE MET. RECENTLY WE HAVE SEEN THE MAV TOO QUICK TO WARM
TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MAIN THERMAL FIELDS NOT CHANGING MUCH...THIS
SEEMS TO BE HAPPENING AGAIN WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON
THE COOLER MET.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271725
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271725
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271725
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 271725
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 271800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

WEAK BOUNDARY NEARING KIND AND KBMG CURRENTLY AND SHOULD BE EAST
OF ALL TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER TO
W/NW ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES. ADDITIONALLY...LOW CEILINGS AT
800-1500FT WILL DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY...GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CU BY 19-20Z
AT ALL SITES. SECONDARY BOUNDARY NOTED NICELY ON VIS SATELLITE...
EXTENDING FROM NEAR KORD TO KBMI AND KSPI AT 17Z. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE AS THE FINAL CATALYST FOR SCATTERED LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KIND AND KLAF.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR VCTS AT ALL SITES
AND FINE TUNE AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION...
WITH GUSTS AT 25 TO 30KTS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTION.

MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS WITH A PERIOD OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
EVENING. AS COLD POOL ALOFT EXPANDS SOUTH OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MVFR
STRATUS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE TERMINALS. MAY SEE VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT KBMG WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL
EARLIER TODAY. LOWER CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING WITH SOME IMPROVEMENTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KIND...BUT COVERAGE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. N/NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO 10-15KTS BY MIDDAY MONDAY...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271657
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RAISED POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF HWY 24 IN
IN/OH PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER BEGINNING
TO GROW IN COVERAGE ALONG REMNANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. A LOW END
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
LEADING EDGE OF SIG HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL ALOFT OVERSPREADS MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERING OVER THE
AREA APPEARS RATHER THIN AND MAY SCATTER OUT ENOUGH TO ERODE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MLCIN IN PLACE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR CONDITIONS WOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP
AND GROW UPSCALE ESE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BTW 19-23Z.
MODERATE INSTABILITY (STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN) AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (50 KTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE) DEFINITELY SUGGEST A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBLY A LOW TORNADO THREAT IF ANY
BOWING/ORGANIZATION OCCURS. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OPTED TO
ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE GRIDS AND BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS/HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DIFFICULTY CENTERED UPON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. LARGE CONGEALED
COLD POOL PUSH SEWD FROM SAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH FOLLOWED BY WAKE OF MID MS VLY TO LWR OH VLY COMPLEX...HAS LEFT
CWA AMID STRONG MLCIN ON ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG WEAKNESS IN EML THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN HIGHLY
CONVERGENT 925-8H MB FLOW OWING TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVR WCNTL IL
AND RAMPING WSWLY LLVL JETLET TO 40-45 KTS ALONG MISSOURI I70
CORRIDOR. PRIMARY CLUSTER TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...THOUGH
WEAKER CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH/VCNTY KPNT MAY CLIP FAR SWRN/SRN CWA
LATER THIS AM. RAMPING CONVECTIVE CHCS BY LATE MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SEWD ASSOCD WITH INTENSE MID
TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX OVR NRN MN MOVING TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00 UTC
MON. HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT POOLED THROUGHOUT HIGHLY
EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CORN BELT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/BR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. CONCERN THAT LESS
THAN STELLAR MORNING INSOLATION TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
PREFRONTAL REGION. STILL BY MIDDAY MODIFIED NAM12 SOUNDINGS OF NEAR
80/LWR 70S SUPPORT NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT 60-80M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH STRONG KINEMATIC
PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING /DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS/ COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN PREFRONTAL ZONE
MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NW THROUGH SE FASHION. PRESENCE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH MDPI AROUND 1.1/WINDEX GTE 50KTS
SUGGEST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 11.5 KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD
HIGHER END CAPE VALUES BE REALIZED. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE INTRICACIES...WILL
RELEGATE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES/CLOSER TO 3 HOURLY TEMPS NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR FIRST FEW
DAYS BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND WITH SHORT TERM FOR START OF PERIOD WITH REMOVAL OF SLGT CHC
POPS FAR EAST AS SYSTEM AND DEEPEST MSTR WILL BE GONE BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THE END OF JULY.  MODELS DO
ALL AGREE ON A WEAK (578 DM) UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDS/WEDS NGT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY HOPE FOR INCREASE OCCURRING FROM
PACIFIC FLOW THAT MAY RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BUT SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS ANY MOISTURE ARRIVES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND QUESTION AS
TO TIMING AND EXACT DYNAMICS WITH EACH WAVE TOUGH TO MUDDLE FORECAST
WITH A BUNCH OF SLGT CHC OR BORDERLINE CHC POPS. 00Z MEN NUMBERS
ALSO COMING IN GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO...GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG 3-6MB/6 HOUR POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES TO DROP SWD FROM
NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAMPING NWRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT OR JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY...YIELDING LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
MARINE...MURPHY


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271657
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RAISED POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF HWY 24 IN
IN/OH PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER BEGINNING
TO GROW IN COVERAGE ALONG REMNANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. A LOW END
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
LEADING EDGE OF SIG HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL ALOFT OVERSPREADS MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERING OVER THE
AREA APPEARS RATHER THIN AND MAY SCATTER OUT ENOUGH TO ERODE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MLCIN IN PLACE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR CONDITIONS WOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP
AND GROW UPSCALE ESE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BTW 19-23Z.
MODERATE INSTABILITY (STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN) AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (50 KTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE) DEFINITELY SUGGEST A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBLY A LOW TORNADO THREAT IF ANY
BOWING/ORGANIZATION OCCURS. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OPTED TO
ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE GRIDS AND BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS/HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DIFFICULTY CENTERED UPON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. LARGE CONGEALED
COLD POOL PUSH SEWD FROM SAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH FOLLOWED BY WAKE OF MID MS VLY TO LWR OH VLY COMPLEX...HAS LEFT
CWA AMID STRONG MLCIN ON ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG WEAKNESS IN EML THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN HIGHLY
CONVERGENT 925-8H MB FLOW OWING TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVR WCNTL IL
AND RAMPING WSWLY LLVL JETLET TO 40-45 KTS ALONG MISSOURI I70
CORRIDOR. PRIMARY CLUSTER TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...THOUGH
WEAKER CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH/VCNTY KPNT MAY CLIP FAR SWRN/SRN CWA
LATER THIS AM. RAMPING CONVECTIVE CHCS BY LATE MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SEWD ASSOCD WITH INTENSE MID
TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX OVR NRN MN MOVING TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00 UTC
MON. HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT POOLED THROUGHOUT HIGHLY
EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CORN BELT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/BR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. CONCERN THAT LESS
THAN STELLAR MORNING INSOLATION TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
PREFRONTAL REGION. STILL BY MIDDAY MODIFIED NAM12 SOUNDINGS OF NEAR
80/LWR 70S SUPPORT NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT 60-80M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH STRONG KINEMATIC
PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING /DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS/ COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN PREFRONTAL ZONE
MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NW THROUGH SE FASHION. PRESENCE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH MDPI AROUND 1.1/WINDEX GTE 50KTS
SUGGEST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 11.5 KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD
HIGHER END CAPE VALUES BE REALIZED. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE INTRICACIES...WILL
RELEGATE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES/CLOSER TO 3 HOURLY TEMPS NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR FIRST FEW
DAYS BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND WITH SHORT TERM FOR START OF PERIOD WITH REMOVAL OF SLGT CHC
POPS FAR EAST AS SYSTEM AND DEEPEST MSTR WILL BE GONE BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THE END OF JULY.  MODELS DO
ALL AGREE ON A WEAK (578 DM) UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDS/WEDS NGT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY HOPE FOR INCREASE OCCURRING FROM
PACIFIC FLOW THAT MAY RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BUT SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS ANY MOISTURE ARRIVES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND QUESTION AS
TO TIMING AND EXACT DYNAMICS WITH EACH WAVE TOUGH TO MUDDLE FORECAST
WITH A BUNCH OF SLGT CHC OR BORDERLINE CHC POPS. 00Z MEN NUMBERS
ALSO COMING IN GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO...GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AT FWA ALONG LEFTOVER CONVERGENT MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MIX OUT TO A HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR STRATOCU DECK
SHORTLY AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. SBN ALREADY WELL MIXED IN ADVANCE OF
IMPRESSIVE MID LVL TROUGH AXIS THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON
LEADING EDGE OF COLD POCKET ALOFT WITH TEMPO TSRA TIMING BASED
LARGELY ON LAST FEW HRRR ITERATIONS. STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL/STRONG GUSTS...BETTER CHANCES AT FWA. A PERIOD OF
MAINLY VFR/DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE LOW CLOUDS IN CAA/WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
REGIME SINK IN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG 3-6MB/6 HOUR POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES TO DROP SWD FROM
NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAMPING NWRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT OR JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY...YIELDING LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
MARINE...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 271424
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1024 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

AS A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA THERE IS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDAY INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RAISED POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF HWY 24 IN
IN/OH PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER BEGINNING
TO GROW IN COVERAGE ALONG REMNANT CONVERGENT BOUNDARY. A LOW END
THREAT FOR SVR HAIL EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AS
LEADING EDGE OF SIG HEIGHT FALLS/COLD POOL ALOFT OVERSPREADS MOIST
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOW STRATUS DECK LINGERING OVER THE
AREA APPEARS RATHER THIN AND MAY SCATTER OUT ENOUGH TO ERODE MORE
SIGNIFICANT MLCIN IN PLACE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR CONDITIONS WOULD
BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP
AND GROW UPSCALE ESE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BTW 19-23Z.
MODERATE INSTABILITY (STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN) AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (50 KTS...HIGH CONFIDENCE) DEFINITELY SUGGEST A SEVERE
WIND/HAIL THREAT AND POSSIBLY A LOW TORNADO THREAT IF ANY
BOWING/ORGANIZATION OCCURS. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OPTED TO
ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE GRIDS AND BUMP POPS INTO LIKELY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS/HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

DIFFICULTY CENTERED UPON CONVECTION POTENTIAL TODAY. LARGE CONGEALED
COLD POOL PUSH SEWD FROM SAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACRS NERN IN/NWRN
OH FOLLOWED BY WAKE OF MID MS VLY TO LWR OH VLY COMPLEX...HAS LEFT
CWA AMID STRONG MLCIN ON ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG. CONVECTION FIRING
ALONG WEAKNESS IN EML THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN HIGHLY
CONVERGENT 925-8H MB FLOW OWING TO WEAK FRONTAL WAVE OVR WCNTL IL
AND RAMPING WSWLY LLVL JETLET TO 40-45 KTS ALONG MISSOURI I70
CORRIDOR. PRIMARY CLUSTER TO TRACK INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...THOUGH
WEAKER CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH/VCNTY KPNT MAY CLIP FAR SWRN/SRN CWA
LATER THIS AM. RAMPING CONVECTIVE CHCS BY LATE MORNING WITH APPROACH
OF SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP SEWD ASSOCD WITH INTENSE MID
TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX OVR NRN MN MOVING TO NEAR SAGINAW BAY BY 00 UTC
MON. HIGH NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE CONTENT POOLED THROUGHOUT HIGHLY
EFFICIENT EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVE CORN BELT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
STRATUS/BR PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AM. CONCERN THAT LESS
THAN STELLAR MORNING INSOLATION TO LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY ACROSS
PREFRONTAL REGION. STILL BY MIDDAY MODIFIED NAM12 SOUNDINGS OF NEAR
80/LWR 70S SUPPORT NEAR 3000 J/KG SBCAPE. LEADING EDGE OF
SIGNIFICANT 60-80M/12 HR HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH STRONG KINEMATIC
PROFILE WITH SLIGHT VEERING /DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ON ORDER OF
40-50KTS/ COULD PROMOTE UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN PREFRONTAL ZONE
MIDDAY INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN NW THROUGH SE FASHION. PRESENCE
OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR ALONG WITH MDPI AROUND 1.1/WINDEX GTE 50KTS
SUGGEST ISOLD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. FAVORABLE WETBULB ZERO
HEIGHTS NEAR 11.5 KFT WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL PRODUCTION SHOULD
HIGHER END CAPE VALUES BE REALIZED. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE INTRICACIES...WILL
RELEGATE MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TO HWO. LOWERED MAX TEMPS TODAY
A FEW DEGREES/CLOSER TO 3 HOURLY TEMPS NUDGED TOWARD LATEST GUIDANCE
BLENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY FOR FIRST FEW
DAYS BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. WILL
BLEND WITH SHORT TERM FOR START OF PERIOD WITH REMOVAL OF SLGT CHC
POPS FAR EAST AS SYSTEM AND DEEPEST MSTR WILL BE GONE BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL NW FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS RUNNING 10 DEGREES OR
SO BELOW NORMAL BUT STILL PLEASANT FOR THE END OF JULY.  MODELS DO
ALL AGREE ON A WEAK (578 DM) UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE
STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDS/WEDS NGT BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY HOPE FOR INCREASE OCCURRING FROM
PACIFIC FLOW THAT MAY RIDE OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
500 MB TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID NEGATIVE TEENS BUT SHIFT NE OF THE
AREA AS ANY MOISTURE ARRIVES. GIVEN THESE CONCERNS AND QUESTION AS
TO TIMING AND EXACT DYNAMICS WITH EACH WAVE TOUGH TO MUDDLE FORECAST
WITH A BUNCH OF SLGT CHC OR BORDERLINE CHC POPS. 00Z MEN NUMBERS
ALSO COMING IN GENERALLY BELOW CLIMO...GIVING MORE CREDENCE TO DRY
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TRANSIENT BR/FG WITHIN STABLE/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA TO RESULT IN AT LEAST TEMPO FUEL ALT CONDITIONS THIS AM.
TIMING OF CONVECTION UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS VORTEX
ACROSS NORTHERN MN WARRANTS AT MINIMUM VCTS MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATER FORECAST ITERATIONS TO FURTHER ASSESS
TIMING/PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE FOR POSSIBLE TEMPO INCLUSION.
LATE DAY FROPA TO AFFORD MOIST/WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUN
NIGHT...FOR AT LEAST LIGHT BR AND MORE LIKELY LOW STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 432 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG 3-6MB/6 HOUR POST FRONTAL PRESSURE RISES TO DROP SWD FROM
NRN MN/WRN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAMPING NWRLY FLOW WITH GUSTS PEAKING AT OR JUST BELOW
GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NORTHERLY ON
MONDAY...YIELDING LONG DURATION SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AND VERY HIGH RIP CURRENT POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AS FLOW BEGINS TO RELAX.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEINWEDEL
SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MURPHY
MARINE...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 271416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEAK SURFACE WAVE ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
IT...ALONG WITH IFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS OF THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER
TIME THE WINDSHIFT AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
WELL AS ADJUST CEILINGS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SOME CLEARING JUST
WEST OF KIND WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE STRATOCU RETURNS WITH CEILINGS AT 1500-2500FT. STILL
ANTICIPATE VFR CEILINGS ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES BY 17-18Z WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TIME FRAME CAN BE PINPOINTED WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
MVFR/VFR MARK /MAINLY VFR/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...MVFR FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 14 TO 18 KTS SUSTAINED/GUSTING TO 28
KTS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/RYAN

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 271416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 271500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1016 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

WEAK SURFACE WAVE ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. AIRMASS REMAINS MOIST WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF
IT...ALONG WITH IFR CONDITIONS. FOCUS OF THE UPDATE IS TO BETTER
TIME THE WINDSHIFT AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
WELL AS ADJUST CEILINGS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SOME CLEARING JUST
WEST OF KIND WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE STRATOCU RETURNS WITH CEILINGS AT 1500-2500FT. STILL
ANTICIPATE VFR CEILINGS ONCE THE BOUNDARY PASSES BY 17-18Z WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG
UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TIME FRAME CAN BE PINPOINTED WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
MVFR/VFR MARK /MAINLY VFR/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...MVFR FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE MORNING...
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 14 TO 18 KTS SUSTAINED/GUSTING TO 28
KTS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 271135
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TIME FRAME CAN BE PINPOINTED WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
MVFR/VFR MARK /MAINLY VFR/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...MVFR FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING...INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 14 TO 18 KTS
SUSTAINED/GUSTING TO 28 KTS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 271135
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
735 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES FOR NOW UNTIL A BETTER TIME FRAME CAN BE PINPOINTED WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCE. CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN RIGHT AROUND THE
MVFR/VFR MARK /MAINLY VFR/ THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TONIGHT...MVFR FOG
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING...INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 14 TO 18 KTS
SUSTAINED/GUSTING TO 28 KTS. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING BUT REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 271116
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271116
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT
LAKES. THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA. DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S EARLY TO MID WEEK. SMALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS AN
UPPER WAVE PIVOTS SOUTHEAST FROM NEBRASKA TO WISCONSIN AND
EVENTUALLY MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES 1500 TO 2500 J/KG/
AND 50 TO 60 KNOT DEEP SHEAR TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF 65 KNOT MID LEVEL JET
STREAK AND NEAR 850 MILLIBAR 30 KNOT MAX. STILL...THE WHOLE FORECAST
AREA IS IN THE DAY1 SPC SLIGHT RISK WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WITH
DEEP MOSTLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...DAMAGING WINDS LOOKS TO BE A
BIGGER THREAT THAN TORNADOES...HOWEVER WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED ONE OR TWO ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY...STRONG STORMS WERE MARCHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AFTERNOON SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING CONVECTION IS.
WIDESPREAD MORNING STORMS WOULD LIKELY KEEP MODEL INSTABILITY
NUMBERS FROM BEING REALIZED AND LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE
THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING.

WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ALOFT AND STORM MOTION OF 30 KNOTS OR
MORE...FLASH FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HUGE CONCERN.

00Z MOS VERY CLOSE ON TEMPERATURES TODAY...LOOKS REASONABLE AND
MATCHES WITH REGRIONAL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AS DRY AND
MUCH COOLER AIR INVADES THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT SWEEPING A STRONG COLD FRONT WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN EVENING
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO THE BETTER INSTABILITY
AND DEPARTING COLD FRONT...HOWEVER...BETTER BET IS ANY ACTIVITY WILL
BE EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z TONIGHT WITH JUST SOME LEFT OVER STRATUS
POSSIBLE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF
STRONG HUDSON BAY VORTEX EXPECTED TO GENERATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
DIURNAL CU. WOULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION.

MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FROM 9 TO 11 DEGREES CELSIUS
SUGGESTS LEANING TOWARDS THE COOLER 00Z NAM MOS WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...SIMILAR MOS LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S LOOK GOOD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S THEREAFTER. WOULD NOT
EVEN RULE OUT UPPER 40S IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A VERY BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES RIDE ALONG THAT UPPER LOW. LATEST INITIALIZATION IS
HIGHLIGHTING BEST PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY.  MODELS CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES AS A RESULT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S AND
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER SEVERAL MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. WILL MENTION VCTS AT
KBMG LATER TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG.
AREA HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND MODELS INDICATE A GOOD CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS
AND FOG AT KLAF AND MVFR FOG AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT OTHER TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT.

THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS AS AN
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
SOME AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING
WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.  SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND FOG MAY OCCUR
AGAIN AFTER 06Z MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













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