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000
FXUS63 KIND 230443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 929 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVER SURFACE PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. RADAR FINALLY SHOWING A WAVE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
INDIANA...PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS IT PASSES. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS AS AN ISOLATED
SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION...PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND THE FAILURE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH AT ALL, HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAV GUIDANCE TENDS TO AGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 10 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT LATE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A
LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 230443
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 929 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVER SURFACE PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. RADAR FINALLY SHOWING A WAVE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
INDIANA...PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS IT PASSES. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS AS AN ISOLATED
SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION...PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND THE FAILURE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH AT ALL, HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAV GUIDANCE TENDS TO AGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 10 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WILL SEE LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS NEAR DAYBREAK
ALONG WITH SOME DRIZZLE...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE
SUGGEST CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT LATE MORNING.
SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE
IN THE PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A
LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 230239
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
939 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 929 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVER SURFACE PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS AND WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. RADAR FINALLY SHOWING A WAVE OF
SHOWERS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WESTERN CENTRAL
INDIANA...PUSHING NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS TO NEAR
100 PERCENT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS IT PASSES. ELSEWHERE...WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS AS AN ISOLATED
SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION...PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND THE FAILURE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MUCH AT ALL, HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LAV GUIDANCE TENDS TO AGREE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 TO 16 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE IN THE
PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A LOW LEVEL
JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIWX 230159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
859 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS OVER OUR AREA HOLDING STEADY THIS EVE AS FAIRLY STRONG WAA
CONTS. AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ENE TOWARD SWRN PORTION OF CWA IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS THIS MOVES IN TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT... BUT OVERALL GOING
MINS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. UPDATED TO RAISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE M-U40S WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 230159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
859 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TEMPS OVER OUR AREA HOLDING STEADY THIS EVE AS FAIRLY STRONG WAA
CONTS. AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING ENE TOWARD SWRN PORTION OF CWA IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WK SHRTWV LIFTING ENE THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY. AS THIS MOVES IN TEMPS MAY FALL A BIT... BUT OVERALL GOING
MINS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE TOO LOW. UPDATED TO RAISE A CATEGORY
INTO THE M-U40S WITH SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENT TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 222346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE N-NE PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS
EVE AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WK
SHRTWV WAS MOVG THROUGH FAR NRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
SRN MI ATTM. BEYOND THIS... EXPECT A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE PRE-DWAN HOURS AS
ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND WERE ADJUSTED UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGES TO LOWS ATTM... THOUGH CONCERNED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTG OVERNIGHT... THAT GOING LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 222346
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 617 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S... WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE N-NE PORTION OF CWA EARLY THIS
EVE AS A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WK
SHRTWV WAS MOVG THROUGH FAR NRN INDIANA AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
SRN MI ATTM. BEYOND THIS... EXPECT A LULL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE PRE-DWAN HOURS AS
ANOTHER WK SHRTWV MOVES THROUGH. HOURLY TEMPS RUNNING CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND WERE ADJUSTED UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. NO CHANGES TO LOWS ATTM... THOUGH CONCERNED WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTG OVERNIGHT... THAT GOING LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

GULF MOISTURE FLOWING N-NE AROUND STRONG SFC HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE NC
COAST WAS RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FROM EAST TX N-NE TO
WI-MI... INCLUDING AT KSBN. SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH WK SHRTWV MOVG
THROUGH THE AREA ATTM SHOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF KSBN AND REMAIN
NORTH OF KFWA THIS EVE. FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WK SHRTWV
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND IFR CIGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APCHG STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHRTWV/SFC WARM FRONT
OVERSPREADS NRN INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
UPDATE...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 222318
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
618 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 TO 16 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE IN THE
PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A LOW LEVEL
JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 222318
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
618 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 618 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST 12 TO 16 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT CONDITIONS.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING WILL BEGIN LOWERING CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT SREF PROBABILITIES AND LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CONDITIONS REMAIN LOW END VFR THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. SHOULD SEE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH ONSET OF STEADIER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS TO IFR LATE IN THE
PERIOD TOWARD TOMORROW EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND A LOW LEVEL
JET WORKS INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE SOUTHERLY...THEN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TOWARD
MORNING. SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 07-14KT RANGE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTINESS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS TOO SPOTTY TO INCLUDE. AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN LATE
IN THE PERIOD...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME A CONCERN AT MOST
SITES. HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION DESPITE UNCERTAINTY ON DETAILS TO PUT
THE WORD OUT THERE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 222111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 222111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 222111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 222111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WAS STILL
OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AS MILD AIR WAS OVERRIDING THE
COOLER AIR. SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA PER 12 KM NAM. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE BREAK WITH THE SHOWERS BETWEEN SYSTEMS LATE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWERS REDEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO ICE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

LITTLE SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WRT ONGOING FORECAST. FOCUS CONTINUES ON
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE/PLUME ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTS
FROM ARKLATEX 12 UTC SUN TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY SUN EVE. 8 G/KG
1000-850 MB LAYER A BIT FARTHER NWD...NOW LAPPING AT SRN CWA SUN
NIGHT WITH PIVOT POINT OVR SERN CWA INADVOF SFC BNDRY MON AM. DEEP
LAYER ASCENT FORTIFIED BY INTENSE 150-200M/12 HR HFC LIFTING NWD
THROUGH CWA SUN NIGHT EARLY SUN NIGHT WITH AREA OF ENHANCED QPF
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA. ALSO GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF CONVERGENCE AHEAD
OF SFC FNT AND AVAILABLE MSTR HAVE RAMPED POPS SOMEWHAT INTO MON AM
AS WELL...FOLLOWED BY SHARP DROP IN DY3 AFTN POPS AS DRY SLOT WRAPS
INTO CWA FM SW. EXTREME 25MB/3 HR CROSS FRONTAL FALL/RISE COUPLET
ALONG WITH QUICKLY RAMPING WRLY 60-70 KT 925 GEO FLOW PORTENDS TO
NEEDING HIR GUSTS ESPCLY ALONG LAKESHORE WITH GALE WATCH NEEDED FOR
NSH WATERS...HOLDING GUST BLO WIND ADVISORY LEVELS ATTM FOR
BERRIEN/LAPORTE. WHILE SFC FNTL TIMING CONSENSUS NUDGES A BIT
QUICKER...MAINTAINED PRIOR PTYPE CHANGEOVER TIMING GIVEN NEGATIVE
ICE INTRODUCTION WITH DRY SLOT...AND DEEPENING OF COLD AIR
SUFFICIENT FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER STILL APPROPRIATELY LAGGED.
THEREAFTER...MODEST LES RESPONSE EXPECTED IN WAKE OF SYSTEM LIFTING
NEWD TO CANADIAN WITH BEST FOCUS TUE...WANING INTO TUE NIGHT. LES
PARAMETERS CONT TO PRESENT RATHER LACKLUSTER WITH LK/8H THERMAL
DIFFERENTIALS INTO THE UPPER TEENS...UNIMPRESSIVE SUPERSATURATION
AND DEPTH/COHESION OF DGZ...TO KEEP AMOUNTS IN CHECK. MODELS DIVERGE
ON MAINTENANCE OF VIGORED SHORTWAVE PER WV IMAGERY NEAR
50N/140W...FAVOR EMCWF WITH MORE RECOGNIZABLE CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
WRN GRTLKS FOR LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WED AFTN/NIGHT. AGAIN MINOR LES
INTO THU WITH PRIMARY FOCUS LEANING TO COASTAL CYCLONGENESIS OFF ERN
COAST OF FLA AS LONGWAVE TROF DEEPENS OVR CNTL CONUS...SHIFTING EWD
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LMZ043-046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 222039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 202100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAFS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HAVE
REMOVED THE SHRA MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW AS VCSH APPEARS TO
HAVE THINGS COVERED. WILL WATCH PROPAGATION OF PRECIP AREA OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS CLOSELY AS THAT LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 222039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 202100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAFS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HAVE
REMOVED THE SHRA MENTION TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW AS VCSH APPEARS TO
HAVE THINGS COVERED. WILL WATCH PROPAGATION OF PRECIP AREA OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS CLOSELY AS THAT LOOKS LIKE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIP.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 221945
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 221945
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT DRY WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
THROUGH. ON WEDNESDAY AN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE SYSTEM WILL START TO
APPROACH INDIANA AND WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. STILL SEEING BIG VARIABILITY IN
ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ENSEMBLE MOS HIGHS IN THE GFS ARE VARYING FROM
29 TO 48 FOR INDIANAPOLIS...THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS STICKING CLOSER
TO THE WARMER END OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
STICKING WITH A COLDER TRACK. WITH THE ECM TENDING TO VERIFY A
LITTLE BETTER FURTHER OUT IN TIME WILL TREND THE INTIALIZATION A FEW
DEGREES COLDER TOWARD IT...AND THIS RESULTED IN CHANCES FOR SNOW
NORTH AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. PATTERN COULD FLATTEN A BIT AFTER THAT AND ACCEPTED DRY
INITIALIZATION FOR FRIDAY-SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 221911
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 221911
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 221911
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 221911
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SET FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO CENTRAL INDIANA
WHICH MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL FOR THANKSGIVING GIVING
CENTRAL INDIANA MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA AND DEW POINT TEMPS WERE RISING IN TO THE LOWER 40S. IR
PICTURES SHOW A STREAM OF CLOUDS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO INDIANA AND OHIO. RADAR ONLY SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AS AN UPPER
WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
TONIGHT SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...BUT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS. 295K GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS
BROAD...WEAK LIFT...BUT AGAIN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AS SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES WERE IN EXCESS OF 5 G/KG.

THUS WITH WEAK FORCING IN PLACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...WILL
TREND POPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAVMOS...ALTHOUGH ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
OCCUR OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AS FORCING IS WEAK.

AS FOR TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED CLOUDS...POSSIBLE RAIN AND ONGOING
BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR ABOVE MAVMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS THE GFS AND NAM BOTH
AGREE THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL DRIFT
EAST AND DEEPEN. AS IT DOES STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BE EJECTED OUT
OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY GOOD LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STILL
REMAIN FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS THEN SHOW DEEP SATURATION WITH EXCELLENT LIFT BY 00Z
MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES AND
IT STRENGTHENS BY MONDAY MORNING. ALL THE WHILE...PUSHING A WARM
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUTTING US IN THE
WARM SECTOR. THUS GIVEN ALL THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL USE NEAR 100
POPS ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
PASSES...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST LOWER
LEVEL INVERSIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER ALOFT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN PRESENT AS STEEP LAPSE RATES LOOK PRESENT AMID A SATURATED
COLUMN. THUS WILL INCLUDE SOME THUNDER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING PASSES.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAVMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COUNTERACTING EACH OTHER...AND TREND
WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
WITHIN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP LOOK LIKELY ON MONDAY AS ONCE AGAIN DECENT
MOISTURE APPEARS AVAILABLE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDING INITIALLY SHOW
LOWER LEVELS WELL ABOVE FREEZING ON MONDAY MORNING...BUT AS THE
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN FALL ENTIRELY BELOW FREEZING SHOWING
A SNOW SOUNDING. THUS WILL START THE DAY OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES IN
THE MORNING AND TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE LONG GONE AND PASSED
TO THE EAST...THUS ONLY MINIMAL TO VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. AS FOR TEMPS ON MONDAY...GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION...WE WILL LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MORNING...WITH TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 30S IN THE AFTERNOON. A NON-DIURNAL TREND WILL BE
USED WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHED SHORTLY BETWEEN 13-15Z NEAR FROPA.

A RIDGE OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD
AND DRY AIR WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AGREE...SHOWING A DRY COLUMN ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS ENTIRELY BELOW
0C. WILL TREND TEMPS AT OR BELOW MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221855
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COLD AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR MORE THAN A WEEK HAS
FINALLY RETREATED NORTH...WITH MILD AIR SPREADING NORTH. CIG/VSBYS
HAVE IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY AT FWA WHERE CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. SHOWERS WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
THAT WAS STILL SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS. EXPECT SHOWERS OFF AND ON
DURING THE TAF PERIOD AS WARM AIR OVERRIDES COOLER AIR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE SHOULD ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221735
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS WARMER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WAS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...BUILD
LESSENING IN COVERAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL. 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMID ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RUN OVER 6 G/KG. THUS WILL KEEP ONGOING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SPOTTY. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221735
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS WARMER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WAS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...BUILD
LESSENING IN COVERAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL. 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMID ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RUN OVER 6 G/KG. THUS WILL KEEP ONGOING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SPOTTY. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 221735
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS WARMER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WAS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...BUILD
LESSENING IN COVERAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL. 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMID ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RUN OVER 6 G/KG. THUS WILL KEEP ONGOING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SPOTTY. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 221735
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1235 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS WARMER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WAS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...BUILD
LESSENING IN COVERAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL. 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMID ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RUN OVER 6 G/KG. THUS WILL KEEP ONGOING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SPOTTY. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1234 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME LATER THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO DROP MENTION OF LLWS BY
AROUND 23Z. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CLOUD DECK DEVELOP BETWEEN
AROUND 9-12Z AND MORE RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER THAT. RIGHT NOW WILL GO
WITH LOW END MVFR BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOWER CEILINGS AS
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 221456 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
955 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 221456 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
955 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 221454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
954 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
954 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT RAIN
TODAY. RAIN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HIGHS TODAY TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 221426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
926 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 920 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS WARMER...SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AS HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS. ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WAS STREAMING NORTHEAST FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...BUILD
LESSENING IN COVERAGE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER SUPPORT IS
MINIMAL. 290K ISENTROPIC SURFACE CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AMID ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION. SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RUN OVER 6 G/KG. THUS WILL KEEP ONGOING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON AS COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN
SPOTTY. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/15 TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 910 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TIME HEIGHT CHARTS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
CEILINGS UPSTREAM ARE MOSTLY ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET AND CEILINGS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE THE RULE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS BEING THE RULE SUNDAY MORNING ON.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIODS AS GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT
IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.  THIS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221412 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PRECIP HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT CURRENT RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A
FEW HOURS AT MOST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY FILTERS INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ALREADY ACROSS ILLINOIS...AND ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY SUNRISE.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR DURATION OF NEAR TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A
BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DYNAMICS WANE.
THIS IS MOST REFLECTED OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE POPS WERE
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS
WAS CAPTURED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/15 TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 910 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TIME HEIGHT CHARTS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
CEILINGS UPSTREAM ARE MOSTLY ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET AND CEILINGS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE THE RULE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS BEING THE RULE SUNDAY MORNING ON.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIODS AS GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT
IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.  THIS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIWX 221159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 221159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 221159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221159
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
659 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

WIDESPREAD PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING.
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS AROUND 2K FT EXPECTED FOR TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH
DID INCLUDE TEMPO IFR CIGS AT KSBN THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL EXIST OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. BETTER
CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL EXIST AT KSBN.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN QUITE STEEP TODAY AND WITH BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUING WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH RAIN INCREASING AGAIN TONIGHT AS NEXT MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED LLWS
MENTION THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING FOR BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ077>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221103 AAA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PRECIP HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT CURRENT RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A
FEW HOURS AT MOST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY FILTERS INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ALREADY ACROSS ILLINOIS...AND ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY SUNRISE.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR DURATION OF NEAR TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A
BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DYNAMICS WANE.
THIS IS MOST REFLECTED OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE POPS WERE
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS
WAS CAPTURED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/12 TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TIME HEIGHT CHARTS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
CEILINGS UPSTREAM ARE MOSTLY ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET AND CEILINGS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE THE RULE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS BEING THE RULE SUNDAY MORNING ON.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIODS AS GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WILL  RESULT
IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.  THIS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 221103 AAA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PRECIP HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT CURRENT RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A
FEW HOURS AT MOST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY FILTERS INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ALREADY ACROSS ILLINOIS...AND ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY SUNRISE.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR DURATION OF NEAR TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A
BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DYNAMICS WANE.
THIS IS MOST REFLECTED OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE POPS WERE
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS
WAS CAPTURED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/12 TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW.
TIME HEIGHT CHARTS INDICATE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
CEILINGS UPSTREAM ARE MOSTLY ABOVE 3 THOUSAND FEET AND CEILINGS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD BE THE RULE UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS BEING THE RULE SUNDAY MORNING ON.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIODS AS GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTH INTO OUR REGION.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WILL  RESULT
IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.  THIS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
WEAKEN SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 220909 AAA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
409 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PRECIP HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT CURRENT RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A
FEW HOURS AT MOST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY FILTERS INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ALREADY ACROSS ILLINOIS...AND ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY SUNRISE.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR DURATION OF NEAR TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A
BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DYNAMICS WANE.
THIS IS MOST REFLECTED OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE POPS WERE
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS
WAS CAPTURED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 405 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY. BUT THE COOLING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ON MONDAY AS HIGHS ONLY TOP OFF IN THE 40S OVER THE WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/09 KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING NEAR PRECIP ONSET...SO ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
VERY BRIEF.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/NIELD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 220902
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
402 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM
AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL PASS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE FIRST SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
RAIN. AFTER A LULL IN ACTIVITY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BRING SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A COLDER AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP CHANCES AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW ENTERING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PRECIP HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...BUT CURRENT RADAR IS ALREADY SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...BUT IT SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A
FEW HOURS AT MOST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY FILTERS INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF WARM FRONT ALREADY ACROSS ILLINOIS...AND ANY FREEZING
RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN BY SUNRISE.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR DURATION OF NEAR TERM PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE INDICATING A
BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS DYNAMICS WANE.
THIS IS MOST REFLECTED OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE POPS WERE
DECREASED TO SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S...THIS
WAS CAPTURED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE HIGH PRECIP
CHANCES WAS A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW PROVIDES BETTER LIFT. AS A RESULT...WILL
GO WITH POPS OF 100 PERCENT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT.

AS SYSTEM MOVES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA...ALMOST COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY TUE 00Z. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
SINCE COLDER AIR WILL HAVE ALREADY FILTERED IN BY THAT POINT...BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED SINCE MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE
ALREADY EXITED THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MODELS INDICATE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA AS WELL AS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TUESDAY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT OUR
WEATHER AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS
AND INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND A CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND CENTRAL AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION FAR
SOUTH.  DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST BUILDS OUR WAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  HOWEVER THE GFS IS OVERDOING THIS AS
IT KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR BOTTLED ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND GREAT
LAKES. THE 00Z EURO AND GEMNH MODELS PULL MORE OF THIS COLD AIR
SOUTH INTO OUR ALL REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
WARM...CUT MOS BLEND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE AROUND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO TEMPERATURES IN MOST OTHER
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/09 KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THROUGH 14Z...BEFORE VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.  ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE
FREEZING NEAR PRECIP ONSET...SO ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE
VERY BRIEF.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/NIELD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220849
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT APPROXIMATELY A 3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO TOTAL TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM 08Z-12Z...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AFTER 12Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LATER FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS
MENTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...SLUG OF DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD RENEWING RAIN
LIKELIHOOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ006>009.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-
     078.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ079>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ015-
     016-024-025.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 220849
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARMER AIR
MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL COME
TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER
40S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 45.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A SHORT WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON/NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY SHORT TERM CHALLENGES.

KIWX VAD WIND PROFILE DEPICTS 45-50 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 3-5K FT LAYER MARKING STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION.
IN ADDITION TO BROAD ISENTROPIC FORCING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP AT 08Z PER REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC EXTENDS FROM NEAR
MICHIGAN CITY INDIANA TO NORTH OF KOKOMO INDIANA...CORRELATING WELL
TO STRONGEST 900-800 HPA MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE. PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE QUITE TRICKY THIS MORNING DUE TO COMPETING PROCESSES OF
EVAPORATIVE/WET BULB COOLING AND STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA. FOR THE MOST
PART...UPSTREAM LOCATIONS ACROSS ILLINOIS HAVE EXPERIENCED
RELATIVELY LIMITED KNOWN IMPACTS TO THIS POINT AS SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN TO AT OR ABOVE FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER PRECIP ONSET.
HOWEVER...HAVE NOTED SOME COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH PRECIP
A BIT MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE....WHICH POSES SOME CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF BETTER PRECIP RATES BEFORE PROFILES BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF MAINLY RAIN. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WITH TIME
WINDOW STILL LOOKING NARROW FOR FREEZING PRECIP...HAVE CARRIED THE
ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEAST
WHERE HAVE GONE WITH A 14Z EXPIRATION.

BY LATE MORNING...AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH CONTINUED BROAD ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. WITH DIFFICULTY IN LATCHING ONTO A CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF BROAD WARM ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DEEPER
MOISTURE...HAVE TRANSITIONED WEATHER GRIDS TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE
RATES OF 7-8 DEG CELSIUS/KM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS...WHERE HAVE
MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE LIMITED TODAY
DUE TO EXPANSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF WAA SHOULD
YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 40S...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS AND
SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN ONCE AGAIN. DID ADD SOME AREAS
OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE EXPERIENCING MELTING SNOWCOVER
TODAY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. LOWS
TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
40/LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING INTO THE CENTRAL US WILL HELP
FORCE A POTENT PV ANOMALY (PRESENTLY DIGGING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO) NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
PHASING OF THESE FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UVM/MOISTURE PLUME
WILL SUPPORT RAPID CYCLOGENESIS...WITH SFC REFLECTION TRACK MODELED
NNE TO SRN LAKE MI SUNDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY SUB-980 MB INTO THE
NRN LAKES MONDAY. SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE (PWATS
EXCEEDING 1") AND DEEP ASCENT UNDER COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL
LIKELY BRING A SOLID 0.60-1.20" OF RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHES ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN/EASTERN ZONES AS MID LVL DRY SLOT
OVERSPREADS AND WELL PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION AXIS MOST LIKELY SETS UP
NW OF IWX CWA. IF THE STRONGER GFS/GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY A WIND
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED (00Z GFS DEEPENS CYCLONE TO 966 MB NEAR SAULT
STE. MARIE BY 18Z MONDAY...HOPEFULLY OVERDONE). OTHERWISE...EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS IN WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT.

COLD/MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW WITHIN DEEP LAYERED EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
AXIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SPORADIC SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE SOME
LAKE ENHANCEMENT/LIGHT ACCUMS ARE EXPECTED. THE MID-LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF MEAN
EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH AN EXISTING NRN HIGH
PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY BAROCLINIC ZONE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT APPROXIMATELY A 3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO TOTAL TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM 08Z-12Z...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AFTER 12Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LATER FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS
MENTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...SLUG OF DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD RENEWING RAIN
LIKELIHOOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
     FOR INZ003>005-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ006>009.

MI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077-
     078.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ079>081.

OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ015-
     016-024-025.

     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-
     002-004-005.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220552
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1252 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR CHANGES ON EVE UPDATE TO PUSH BACK START OF MENTIONABLE POPS
UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER MO WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA AND MAY DIMINISH SOME AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER IL/IN. A SHORT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS
IN OUR CWA IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS... SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT APPROXIMATELY A 3 HOUR
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS...WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS
DURING THIS PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO TOTAL TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING
RAIN APPEARS TO BE FROM 08Z-12Z...WITH PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
LIQUID PRECIP TYPE AFTER 12Z. PASSAGE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE
AREA...SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
CARRIED PREVAILING RAIN THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LATER FORECAST CYCLES MAY BE ABLE TO NARROW THIS
MENTION...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...SLUG OF DEEPER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT BACK NORTHWARD RENEWING RAIN
LIKELIHOOD. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH
BEST CHANCE OF CIGS BLO 2K FT AT KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220505
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND IS SPOTTY AT
BEST FOR THE MOMENT. HRRR DOES INDICATE AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT CONCURRENTLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP
AS IT MOVES THE PRECIP IN. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS
AS THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...MANY SITES IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY HIT THEIR MINS FOR THE NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING RAIN IN THE GRIDS WHERE THE HOURLY
TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 32 WITH A SMALL MARGIN OF RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN OWING TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHORT
WINDOW OF ICING THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LIKELY 2-3 HOURS AT
MOST...MAYBE 4 HOURS IN THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHICH HAS A BIT
FURTHER TO GO TO THE FREEZING MARK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED INITIALLY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 08Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING NEAR
PRECIP ONSET...SO ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE VERY BRIEF.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP/NIELD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220505
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1205 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND IS SPOTTY AT
BEST FOR THE MOMENT. HRRR DOES INDICATE AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT CONCURRENTLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP
AS IT MOVES THE PRECIP IN. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS
AS THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...MANY SITES IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY HIT THEIR MINS FOR THE NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING RAIN IN THE GRIDS WHERE THE HOURLY
TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 32 WITH A SMALL MARGIN OF RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN OWING TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHORT
WINDOW OF ICING THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LIKELY 2-3 HOURS AT
MOST...MAYBE 4 HOURS IN THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHICH HAS A BIT
FURTHER TO GO TO THE FREEZING MARK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED INITIALLY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 08Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

ELSEWHERE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING NEAR
PRECIP ONSET...SO ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE VERY BRIEF.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP/NIELD/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 220253
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND IS SPOTTY AT
BEST FOR THE MOMENT. HRRR DOES INDICATE AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT CONCURRENTLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP
AS IT MOVES THE PRECIP IN. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS
AS THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...MANY SITES IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY HIT THEIR MINS FOR THE NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING RAIN IN THE GRIDS WHERE THE HOURLY
TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 32 WITH A SMALL MARGIN OF RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN OWING TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHORT
WINDOW OF ICING THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LIKELY 2-3 HOURS AT
MOST...MAYBE 4 HOURS IN THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHICH HAS A BIT
FURTHER TO GO TO THE FREEZING MARK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAF APPEARS IN GOOD SHARE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING
AND CLOUDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO TRY
TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE AREA AROUND 08Z-09Z.
SURFACE TEMPS AT THAT TIME SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S...WHICH
ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS JUST RA AS PRECIP TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220253
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND IS SPOTTY AT
BEST FOR THE MOMENT. HRRR DOES INDICATE AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT CONCURRENTLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP
AS IT MOVES THE PRECIP IN. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS
AS THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...MANY SITES IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY HIT THEIR MINS FOR THE NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING RAIN IN THE GRIDS WHERE THE HOURLY
TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 32 WITH A SMALL MARGIN OF RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN OWING TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHORT
WINDOW OF ICING THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LIKELY 2-3 HOURS AT
MOST...MAYBE 4 HOURS IN THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHICH HAS A BIT
FURTHER TO GO TO THE FREEZING MARK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAF APPEARS IN GOOD SHARE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING
AND CLOUDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO TRY
TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE AREA AROUND 08Z-09Z.
SURFACE TEMPS AT THAT TIME SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S...WHICH
ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS JUST RA AS PRECIP TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220253
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND IS SPOTTY AT
BEST FOR THE MOMENT. HRRR DOES INDICATE AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT CONCURRENTLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP
AS IT MOVES THE PRECIP IN. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS
AS THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...MANY SITES IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY HIT THEIR MINS FOR THE NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING RAIN IN THE GRIDS WHERE THE HOURLY
TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 32 WITH A SMALL MARGIN OF RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN OWING TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHORT
WINDOW OF ICING THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LIKELY 2-3 HOURS AT
MOST...MAYBE 4 HOURS IN THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHICH HAS A BIT
FURTHER TO GO TO THE FREEZING MARK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAF APPEARS IN GOOD SHARE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING
AND CLOUDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO TRY
TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE AREA AROUND 08Z-09Z.
SURFACE TEMPS AT THAT TIME SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S...WHICH
ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS JUST RA AS PRECIP TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220253
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

PRECIP CONTINUES TO BE SLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND IS SPOTTY AT
BEST FOR THE MOMENT. HRRR DOES INDICATE AN EXPANSION IN COVERAGE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT CONCURRENTLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES UP
AS IT MOVES THE PRECIP IN. HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS AND HOURLY TEMPS
AS THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES...MANY SITES IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY HIT THEIR MINS FOR THE NIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY FREEZING RAIN IN THE GRIDS WHERE THE HOURLY
TEMPS ARE AT OR BELOW 32 WITH A SMALL MARGIN OF RAIN OR FREEZING
RAIN OWING TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY SHORT
WINDOW OF ICING THREAT AT ANY ONE LOCATION...LIKELY 2-3 HOURS AT
MOST...MAYBE 4 HOURS IN THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WHICH HAS A BIT
FURTHER TO GO TO THE FREEZING MARK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAF APPEARS IN GOOD SHARE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING
AND CLOUDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO TRY
TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE AREA AROUND 08Z-09Z.
SURFACE TEMPS AT THAT TIME SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S...WHICH
ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS JUST RA AS PRECIP TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220201
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
901 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAF APPEARS IN GOOD SHARE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING
AND CLOUDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO TRY
TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE AREA AROUND 08Z-09Z.
SURFACE TEMPS AT THAT TIME SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S...WHICH
ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS JUST RA AS PRECIP TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220201
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
901 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ONGOING TAF APPEARS IN GOOD SHARE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING
AND CLOUDS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO TRY
TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS PRECIP ARRIVING IN THE AREA AROUND 08Z-09Z.
SURFACE TEMPS AT THAT TIME SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S...WHICH
ONCE AGAIN SUPPORTS JUST RA AS PRECIP TYPE. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
CLOSELY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 212358
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 212358
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
658 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 657 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WITH REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS VERY SLOW TO SHOW ANY ECHOES AT
ALL AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING VERY DRY ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE PUSHED
BACK POPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WITH THIS UPDATE...AND MAY NEED TO
PUSH THEM BACK EVEN MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR DOES HAVE SOME PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST BY
04Z. IT IS A RACE BETWEEN WARM ADVECTION AND PRECIP ONSET AT THIS
POINT TO DETERMINE WHETHER ANY FREEZING PRECIP WILL FALL. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/NIELD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 212344
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR CHANGES ON EVE UPDATE TO PUSH BACK START OF MENTIONABLE POPS
UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER MO WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA AND MAY DIMINISH SOME AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER IL/IN. A SHORT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS
IN OUR CWA IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS... SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A WK SHRTWV MOVG EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z. CONTD LOW LEVEL WAA
AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF
SHRTWV SATURDAY... CONTINUING TO CAUSE LOW CIGS AND OCNL -RA/BR AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. CONTD FCST OF MVFR WITH LOWEST
CONDITIONS AT SBN WHERE SOME IFR PSBL... BUT HELD IN LOW MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 212344
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR CHANGES ON EVE UPDATE TO PUSH BACK START OF MENTIONABLE POPS
UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER MO WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA AND MAY DIMINISH SOME AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER IL/IN. A SHORT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS
IN OUR CWA IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS... SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A WK SHRTWV MOVG EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z. CONTD LOW LEVEL WAA
AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF
SHRTWV SATURDAY... CONTINUING TO CAUSE LOW CIGS AND OCNL -RA/BR AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. CONTD FCST OF MVFR WITH LOWEST
CONDITIONS AT SBN WHERE SOME IFR PSBL... BUT HELD IN LOW MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 212344
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR CHANGES ON EVE UPDATE TO PUSH BACK START OF MENTIONABLE POPS
UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER MO WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA AND MAY DIMINISH SOME AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER IL/IN. A SHORT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS
IN OUR CWA IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS... SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A WK SHRTWV MOVG EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z. CONTD LOW LEVEL WAA
AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF
SHRTWV SATURDAY... CONTINUING TO CAUSE LOW CIGS AND OCNL -RA/BR AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. CONTD FCST OF MVFR WITH LOWEST
CONDITIONS AT SBN WHERE SOME IFR PSBL... BUT HELD IN LOW MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 212344
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
644 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR CHANGES ON EVE UPDATE TO PUSH BACK START OF MENTIONABLE POPS
UNTIL 06Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER MO WILL TAKE
AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA AND MAY DIMINISH SOME AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER IL/IN. A SHORT FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP AND SFC TEMPS
IN OUR CWA IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS... SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COMBINED WITH A WK SHRTWV MOVG EAST
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AT THE TERMINALS FROM 08Z-13Z. CONTD LOW LEVEL WAA
AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN WAKE OF
SHRTWV SATURDAY... CONTINUING TO CAUSE LOW CIGS AND OCNL -RA/BR AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY. CONTD FCST OF MVFR WITH LOWEST
CONDITIONS AT SBN WHERE SOME IFR PSBL... BUT HELD IN LOW MVFR
RANGE FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JT
SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 212331
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 212331
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
631 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 220000 TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 607 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR EXPECTED THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM 07Z-12Z...BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT LAF.

CLOUDS OVER MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG LLJ WILL PUSH INTO THE INDIANA TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN ACROSS THE AREA IS QUITE DRY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THUS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR ANY
PRECIP TO MOIST UP THE COLUMN AS ANY PRECIP MAY START AS VIRGA.
FURTHERMORE...THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIMITING THE WINDOW FOR ANY FREEZING
PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THIS HAVE FOR NOW HAVE LIMITED THE MENTION FOR
FREEZING RAIN TO THE LAF TAF SITE...WITH JUST RAIN EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

TIME HEIGHTS THEN CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AMID WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN THE
COLUMN. THUS A RETURN TO VFR WILL BE EXPECTED AFT 12Z WITH SCT
SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A STRONG LLJ OF 50KT WORKING ACROSS THE AREA
MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIWX 212111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION
OF OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT
A 4 HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH
SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE
AS PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 212111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION
OF OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT
A 4 HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH
SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE
AS PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 212111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION
OF OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT
A 4 HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH
SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE
AS PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 212111
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER
AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE REACHED EARLY...PRIMARILY IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL START TO THE SHORT TERM WILL QUICKLY END AS THE FIRST IN
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION AND RETURNS MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

LEADING EDGE OF FIRST WAVE WAS ALREADY MOVING INTO MISSOURI AND WILL
ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE IN THE 6 TO 9Z SAT WINDOW
ALLOWING FOR LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE AND LIGHT RAIN TO QUICKLY
DEVELOP ACROSS NW PARTS OF THE AREA...EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST.
CONCERNS STILL LOOM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET
AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS OVERTOP A SHALLOW COLD DOME IN
PLACE FROM THE RECENT COLD SNAP. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST THIS
COLD DOME IS PUSHED OUT. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED FASTER WITH
ARRIVAL OF WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH ALL BUT NE SECTIONS
LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z SAT. A 2 TO MAYBE 4 HOUR WINDOW WILL
EXIST AT ANY ONE SPOT FOR SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATION AS THE COLD
GROUND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO WARM...EVEN AS TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING. ONCE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 33 TO 34 DEGREE RANGE...ANY
ICE ACCRETION SHOULD END. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD WITH
CAT POPS IN THE NW TO HIGH CHC IN SE WHERE DEEPER MSTR WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER TO ARRIVE. WHILE ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT MOST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...THIS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME SLICK
SPOTS. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN THE DURATION AND EXTENT OF ICING IS STILL
LOW...WILL FRESHEN UP THE SPS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT. LOWS
WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES FROM THAT
POINT.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS PEAK LIFT SHIFTS NORTH OF THE
AREA. MAINTAIN CHC TO LIKELY POPS...HIGHEST NW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW UPPER 40S IN SW
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FEW CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON WEEKEND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND TIMING. FOCUS CONTS ON TWO
PRIMARY/HEIGHTENED RAFL EVENTS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
LIGHT/PROLONGED QPF EVENT. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN NRN STREAM OVR
CNTL MT TIMED INTO UPR GRTLKS SAT NIGHT COINCIDENT WITH FIRST
MOISTURE SLUG PER 1000-850MB MSTR FLUX CONVERGENCE/6-7 G/KG
LIFTING NWD THROUGH CWA WITH PRIMARY FOCUS ON HIR LATE NIGHT
POPS/QPF. THEREAFTER...PSBL LULL/LIGHT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING
WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS FORESEEN. SECOND ARDENT FOCUSED
LIFT/MOISTURE SURGE SUNDAY AFTN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
VORTEX OVR GULF OF CAL DROPPING THROUGH EDWARDS PLATEAU THEN
LIFTING FROM NERN TX RAPIDLY NEWD INTO OHIO VALLEY LATE DY3.
PWATS RISE TO 1-1.1 INCHES APPROX 80TH PERCENTILE/ SUN EVE/ERLY
NIGHT AS EVEN GREATER BULK MOISTURE SURGE WITH 8 G/KG NOSING INTO
CNTL IN BY F66. FORCED PARCEL ASCENT ON NOSE OF 60-65 KT LOW
LEVEL JET COULD PORTEND TO ISOLD EMBEDDED TSRA...THOUGH WITH NAM
MUCAPE BLO 50 J/KG WILL OMIT FROM FCST ATTM. LESSENED DIURNAL
SWINGS PRIMARILY WITH WARMER LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY LATER TIMING OF CHANGEOVER RA/SN TO SN...PER CONSENSUS
AS ANTICIPATED WITH SYSTEM BECOMING INCRSNGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION
OF OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT
A 4 HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH
SEVERAL HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING
ABOVE FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE
AS PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...FISHER


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000
FXUS63 KIND 212039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 6-10KTS. TONIGHT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE
WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT AROUND 1-3Z. WARM AIR WILL
ADVECT IN ABOVE THE GROUND AND BRING A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND 6Z AT KBMG AND KHUF AND
8Z AT KIND AND KLAF. EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR 3-4 HOURS BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME SO ALSO ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 12Z AS WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SURFACE WINDS
NEAR SOUTHERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 212039
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT AND A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN ITS
WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN...THEN A UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SNOW TO THE AREA NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING EXPECT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED
MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE TIMING THE MOISTURE
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO ARRIVE EVEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH WILL
IMPACT PRECIP TYPE OVERNIGHT WHERE ONCE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN WAS
EXPECTED. THIS PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKE A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REALLY
KICKS IN LATER THIS EVENING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE
TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF
PRECIP. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR -FZRA RAIN IS 9PM THROUGH 5AM...QUICKLY
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. QPF
AMOUNTS STILL LOOK EXTREMELY LOW...ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY STATEMENTS NOR HEADLINES FOR THE -FZRA RAIN
BASED ON THIS LATEST GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM TO SEE IF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS NEEDED.
IN COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND POTENTIALLY SLICK/ICY ROADS FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OVERNIGHT IN THE HWO AND WX STORY.

LOW TEMPS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING (RANGING FROM MID 20S TO MID
30S) AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO MID 30S TO LOW 40S BY 12Z SAT!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 332 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

BY 10-12Z SATURDAY MORNING ALL THE POTENTIAL -FZRA WILL HAVE CHANGED
OVER TO RAIN. AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA IN EARNEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COMING
IN EVEN WARMER THIS MODEL RUN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 40S
(NORTH) TO NEARLY THE MID 50S (FAR SOUTH COUNTIES) BY SAT 12Z

THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THERE CONTINUES TO LOOKS
LIKE A LULL DURING A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY...SO BACK OFF
ON POPS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH 100 PERCENT POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF TEMPS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
MOST OFF TO THE EAST. COLD AIR WILL THEN MOVE BACK IN MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. FOR NOW INDICATED
A MIX OF -RA/SN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 6-10KTS. TONIGHT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE
WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT AROUND 1-3Z. WARM AIR WILL
ADVECT IN ABOVE THE GROUND AND BRING A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND 6Z AT KBMG AND KHUF AND
8Z AT KIND AND KLAF. EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR 3-4 HOURS BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME SO ALSO ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 12Z AS WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SURFACE WINDS
NEAR SOUTHERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 211956
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
256 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS LATE MORNING
UPDATE. ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS TRENDS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

COLD AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AS WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. KEPT CHANCE FOR FLURRIES GOING TUESDAY IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OR SO AS WELL WITH CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW. WEDNESDAY ON
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN AND
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY VARIABLE SO WILL JUST GO WITH INITIALIZATION.
TEMPERATURES DO SEEM TO BE COMING TOGETHER A LITTLE COOLER FOR THAT
TIME SO STUCK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR PRECIP TYPE. THERE IS
SOME HINT OF A WARMUP OUT BEYOND FRIDAY BUT THAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 6-10KTS. TONIGHT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE
WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT AROUND 1-3Z. WARM AIR WILL
ADVECT IN ABOVE THE GROUND AND BRING A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND 6Z AT KBMG AND KHUF AND
8Z AT KIND AND KLAF. EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR 3-4 HOURS BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME SO ALSO ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 12Z AS WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SURFACE WINDS
NEAR SOUTHERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1258 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION OF OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT A 4
HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH SEVERAL
HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE AS
PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1258 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION OF OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT A 4
HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH SEVERAL
HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE AS
PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1258 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION OF OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT A 4
HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH SEVERAL
HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE AS
PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1258 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY...DRAWING IN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SYSTEM...STARTING AS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE
ABOVE FREEZING AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST
LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE RAPIDLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING AFTER 6Z. A
MASSIVE SURGE OF WARM AIR ALOFT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM...KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE LIQUID VS FROZEN FORM.
HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR A FEW HOURS AT THE ONSET...WARRANTING A CONTINUATION OF OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MENTION. HAVE KEPT THIS GOING FOR ABOUT A 4
HOUR PERIOD AT EACH SITE BUT THIS MAY BE TOO LONG WITH SEVERAL
HIGH RES MODELS COMING IN WITH SFC TEMPS RAPIDLY CLIMBING ABOVE
FREEZING AROUND 12Z. CIGS WILL DROP RAPIDLY INTO MVFR RANGE AS
PRECIP STARTS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

OTHER NOTEWORTHY ITEM IS STRONG INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
KEEP A STRONG WIND FIELD FROM MIXING TO THE GROUND AS 2000 FT
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 KTS LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO BOTH
TAFS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER


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000
FXUS63 KIND 211719
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1219 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS LATE MORNING
UPDATE. ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS TRENDS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 6-10KTS. TONIGHT SKY COVER WILL INCREASE
WITH CEILINGS DEVELOPING AROUND 3500 FT AROUND 1-3Z. WARM AIR WILL
ADVECT IN ABOVE THE GROUND AND BRING A FEW HOURS OF VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE SITES STARTING AROUND 6Z AT KBMG AND KHUF AND
8Z AT KIND AND KLAF. EXPECT IT TO LAST FOR 3-4 HOURS BEFORE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME SO ALSO ADDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT 12Z AS WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH SURFACE WINDS
NEAR SOUTHERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY WITH AN INVERSION STAYING IN PLACE AND OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS
AND MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211503
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1003 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS LATE MORNING
UPDATE. ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS TRENDS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211503
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1003 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1000 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

1430Z UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS LATE MORNING
UPDATE. ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS TRENDS. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 211416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 211416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 211416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 211416
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 915 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 211132
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
632 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR LAKE EFFECT LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED DUE TO LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO LIFT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRIDES SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE TIME
PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE
08Z-13Z TIMEFRAME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO MVFR
TERMINALS WITH CIGS IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH CIGS BELOW
2K FT ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD AND
EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 211132
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
632 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR LAKE EFFECT LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED DUE TO LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO LIFT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRIDES SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE TIME
PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE
08Z-13Z TIMEFRAME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO MVFR
TERMINALS WITH CIGS IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH CIGS BELOW
2K FT ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD AND
EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 211132
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
632 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR LAKE EFFECT LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED DUE TO LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO LIFT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRIDES SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE TIME
PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE
08Z-13Z TIMEFRAME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO MVFR
TERMINALS WITH CIGS IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH CIGS BELOW
2K FT ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD AND
EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211132
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
632 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR LAKE EFFECT LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. VFR CONDITIONS TO THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED DUE TO LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO LIFT
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WAVE KICKING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. A BRIEF WINDOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP FOR FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL AS WARM AIR ALOFT OVERRIDES SHALLOW COLD AIR. THE TIME
PERIOD OF GREATEST THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE IN THE
08Z-13Z TIMEFRAME EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE TRENDED TAFS TO MVFR
TERMINALS WITH CIGS IN THE 2000-3000 FT RANGE...ALTHOUGH CIGS BELOW
2K FT ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD AND
EXTENDING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


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000
FXUS63 KIND 211057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 211057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AFTERWARD. A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST
REACHING REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THIS EVENING.  AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING  AND ONLY
THIN HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WILL SPREAD LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OUR WAY
EARLY TONIGHT.  EXPECT BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATER
THIS EVENING AND MVFR CEILINGS AND FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES BY
MIDNIGHT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING LATE
TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT KHUF AND
KBMG BY 09Z AND KLAF AND KIND AFTER 12Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 KNOTS BY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 210908
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
408 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 210908
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
408 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 210908
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
408 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 210908
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
408 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY...AND ANY LINGERING LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES WILL COME TO AN END. WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE MID 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE SHORT TERM FOR TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS PERSISTS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONLY LIMITING
VSBYS IN THE 3-6 MILE RANGE. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH A STRAY TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. SFC ANTICYCLONE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
BACKING LOW WINDS AND REDUCED FETCH. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY ALSO
TO STEADILY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS INVERSION
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO CRASH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND LARGER SCALE SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SHOULD SHAPE UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOPING. ARCTIC DOME
WILL BE SOMEWHAT STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT...AND HAVE NOT MADE MUCH
CHANGE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM AROUND 30 WEST...TO THE MID 20S
EAST.

ATTENTION FOR TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY STRONG LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP AS VERY DRY AIR MASS SUBJECT
TO HISTORY OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONGUE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
INTO THE MID MS RVR VALLEY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
WAVE...AND THEN WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE 06Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. MID/UPPER FORCING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE
GIVEN BROAD...LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE TO THE ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIP SPREADING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE 06Z TIMEFRAME. MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIAL
OF SHALLOW SUB FREEZING LAYER TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH WARM LAYER
ALOFT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED AFTER 06Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY ALTHOUGH INITIALLY
THE VERY DRY NATURE TO THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OFFERS SOME LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING ONSET TIME AND PRECIP AMOUNTS. GIVEN STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...AND AT LEAST WEAK
MID/UPPER FORCING HAVE FOLLOWED GUIDANCE TRENDS TO HIGHER POPS FOR
THE LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING PERIOD. PERIOD OF GREATEST
FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/AMOUNTS AND BEING A LATE 2ND PERIOD POTENTIAL EVENT...WILL
LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS NEED FOR HEADLINES FURTHER. PLUME OF
RELATIVELY STEEP 700-500 HPA LAPSE SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SO WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT IN WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT (GENERALLY
LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH)...MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY
WEAKER CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS.

PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM/MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERWHELMS PROFILES FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH EVEN FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS TO LIQUID PRECIP TYPE BY 14 OR 15Z.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

WET/WARMER THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY COLD WX
THEREAFTER....

ONGOING ISENTROPIC ASCENT/MOIST ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER JET WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IN ZONAL FLOW MAY KEEP AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AROUND INTO SATURDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SFC WARMS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL
ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT AS SRN STREAM PV ANOMALY (NOW OVER SRN CA)
LIFTS NNE THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTED NEGATIVE TILT TO WAVE,
PHASING/STRENGTHENING OF UPPER JET ROUNDING BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING
PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH, AND GOOD FEED OF MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS WITH MODELS AGREEING ON SFC REFLECTION TRACK
NNE THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY/WESTERN LAKES. AT LEAST THE WESTERLY
TRACK OF SYSTEM WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER AIR TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORTLIVED HOWEVER AS THE NEXT DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH CONSOLIDATES INTO THE EASTERN US BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR TO THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN THIS NEXT COLD BLAST
(ALTHOUGH NOT AS EXTREME AS THIS PAST WEEK) WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH
ON MONDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS EXPECTED LATE MORNING-AFTN. FRONTAL
WAVE/MID LVL FGEN RESPONSE CONTINUES TO SHOW UP IN BULK OF GUIDANCE
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) TO
BLOSSOM/EXPAND NE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. OTHERWISE...CAA/CYCLONIC
FLOW SCT FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS CAN EXPECTED WITHIN TROUGH AXIS LATER
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT/ACCUMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LOWER MI/FAR NRN IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 210901
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
401 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...LONG TERM...AND AVIATION SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AS A WARM
FRONT AND A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.

CONDITIONS WILL BE CALM FOR MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRAPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE PRECIP CHANCES AND
TYPES WITH A WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FIRST WAVE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ENTER
CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING. SLOWED DOWN ONSET
TIME OF PRECIP BY A FEW HOURS AS MODELS LEAN MORE TOWARD THE SAT
03-06Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL
OF CENTRAL INDIANA AFTER SAT 06Z. THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WHICH CAN EXPECT RAIN. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO
THE AREA BY SAT 12Z THOUGH...CAUSING FREEZING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO ALL RAIN. DUE TO THE SHORT TIME PERIOD AND MINOR ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE HEADLINES OUT.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE ITS TRACK ACROSS MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
ON SUNDAY AS BEST LIFT FROM WARM FRONT AND LOW TRAVERSE THE AREA.
AS A RESULT...WILL GO WITH DEFINITE POPS FOR MOST OF SUNDAY.

TEMPS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE 50S WITH DECENT WARM
ADVECTION...AND LOWS TO BE IN THE 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE
TONIGHT WHEN THEY STILL DIP INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 324 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1102 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

UPDATE...
MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CI
STREAMING HIGH ALOFT AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. PREESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND HAVE
BECOME LIGHT.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE AFT 00Z SAT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN VFR CIGS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 210847
AFDIND

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CI
STREAMING HIGH ALOFT AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. PREESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND HAVE
BECOME LIGHT.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE AFT 00Z SAT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN VFR CIGS.

&&






000
FXUS63 KIND 210847
AFDIND

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CI
STREAMING HIGH ALOFT AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. PREESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND HAVE
BECOME LIGHT.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE AFT 00Z SAT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN VFR CIGS.

&&






000
FXUS63 KIND 210847
AFDIND

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CI
STREAMING HIGH ALOFT AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. PREESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND HAVE
BECOME LIGHT.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE AFT 00Z SAT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN VFR CIGS.

&&






000
FXUS63 KIND 210847
AFDIND

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES.  IT WILL STILL BE MILD AND WET MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY
FOLLOWING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL CONSIST OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. BUT WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS
OR FLURRIES OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TUESDAY.

A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES A MOS BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE MOST
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD EAST ACROSS INDIANA DURING THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CI
STREAMING HIGH ALOFT AMID THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT. PREESSURE GRADIENT
HAS RELAXED AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AND WIND HAVE
BECOME LIGHT.

CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON
FRIDAY. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INVADE AFT 00Z SAT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEGINS ON BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH...RESULTING IN VFR CIGS.

&&






000
FXUS63 KIWX 210551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL YIELD CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYN OPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 210551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL YIELD CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYN OPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 210551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL YIELD CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYN OPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 210551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. CLEARING
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS WILL YIELD CHILLY LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

IN LIGHT OF CONTD SEVERE DRY ENTRAINMENT AND GROWING OBSVD SIG SFC TD
DEPRESSIONS NOTED ACRS SW MI HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL ADVISORY EARLY.
IN FACT MUCH OF REMAINING SHSN HAVE DEVOLVED INTO ISOLD FLURRIES
AND W/WKNG SFC GRADIENT BLOWING SNOW SHLD NOT BE AN ISSUE EITHER
GOING FWD OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS SEVERELY LIMITED OVERALL INTENSITY AND
ORGANIZATION OF LAKE EFFECT BANDS RESULTING IN ONLY SPORADIC
REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE PREVIOUS HEADLINE AREAS. THIS
IS DESPITE STRONG INSTABILITY AND A NORMALLY FAVORABLE FETCH.
COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAS INCREASED AND ANYONE FORTUNATE ENOUGH
TO GET UNDER ONE WILL SEE A RAPID DROP IN VISIBILITY FOR A SHORT
PERIOD BUT LITTLE OVER ALL ACCUMULATION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS
WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING ALL HEADLINES. HOWEVER...WITH SNOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO PERSIST
AT LEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL OPT TO DOWNGRADE THE WARNING
TO AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH LOCAL 1 TO AT MOST 2 INCH ACCUMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WHICH MAY EVEN END UP TOO HIGH IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. AWAY FROM THE LAKE...DIURNAL CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AND LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH READING
AWAY FROM ANY CLOUD COVER DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS.

ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA ALLOWING WINDS TO FINALLY BECOME MORE SW AND MUCH DRIER AIR
FILTER IN AS WELL AS LOWERING INVERSION HGTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEMISE OF ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUNSHINE TRIES TO DOMINATE. HOWEVER...MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
START TO MOVE INTO SW AREAS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR LIQUID PRECIP INTO THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL ONLY MANAGE MID TO
MAYBE UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FEW CHANGES AND CONTINUED FORECAST FOCUS ON WEEKEND PTYPE/AMOUNTS.
CONTINUED CONCERN THAT EMPHATIC WARMING/DEEPENING THERMAL/WET BULB
PROFILES ALOFT TO PRECEDE BULK OF INITIAL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH CONTINUED HIGH 950-900 MB LAYER
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS TO GNAW AT LEADING EDGE...KEEPING
BULK OF LIQUID HYDROMETEORS MOSTLY ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT MINOR ZR
EVENT AT ONSET...THOUGH HAVE LOCKED DOWN TEMPORAL WINDOW TO
PRIMARILY 09-12 UTC SAT WINDOW PER CONSENSUS ARW/NMM FOR WRN HALF
CWA...AS WARM ADVECTION SURGE PER VEERED STRENGTHENING PROFILES
APPEAR SYN OPTICALLY ASSURED. ATTM ANTICIPATE ICING TO BE SPOTTY AND
BRIEF IN NATURE WITH OVERALL PROBABILITIES MUTED OVER EGREGIOUSLY
WET BLEND. BETTER/RENEWED MOISTURE SURGE WITH WRN TRACKED SYSTEM
LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH MS VLY/WRN GRTLKS ESPCLY SUN/SUN NIGHT.
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER SUPPORT WITH SLOWING EWD
FRONTAL PROGRESS AS SYSTEM LIFTS FROM NERN TX SUN, AND INTO MID/UPR
OH VLY SUN NIGHT. SLIGHTLY DLAY OF DEEPER POST FRONTAL CAA RESULTING
IN LATER TIMING OF SHIFT TO RASN MIX NOW TO MON AFTN...AND
EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW BY MON NIGHT. CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH
LAGGED LAKE AGGREGATE TROF AND MODERATE THERMAL INSTABILITY
SUPPORT WITH LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS TO UPPER TEENS SUGGEST CONTD HIGH
LES POPS TUE/TUE NIGHT. HEREAFTER GFS LARGELY DISCOUNTED/OUT OF
PHASE WITH GFS WRT LONGWAVE PATTERN. STRONG EPAC RIDGING PER ECMWF
WITH PLAINS TROFFING PORTENDING OF OHIO VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS
FRONTOGENESIS AND POTNL SNOW EVENT WITHIN REALM OF POSSIBILITIES
RAMPING UPWARDS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AT LEAST SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS
OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THESE
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KSBN WITH JUST LAKE
EFFECT LOW CLOUD CIGS OF 4-5K FT EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SFC ANTICYCLONE FROM THE MID/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD...WILL
NEED TO ADDRESS -FZRA POTENTIAL IN THE 09Z-15Z TIMEFRAME DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHALLOW COLD AIR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...MARSILI


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