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000
FXUS63 KIND 051844
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER RAINY PERIOD SHOULD
BEGIN AS A FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS. LATE IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO TAKE CHARGE OF INDIANA WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH ALL MODELS POINTING TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHWEST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE MODELS ALSO AGREE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO MINIMUMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. GIVEN THE MAV HAS
CAPTURED THIS...AND DID VERY LAST NIGHT...IT WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE MONDAY IS GOING TO
BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THEY ALSO AGREE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL BE IN MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A FRONT WILL STALL.

WHERE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOESNT AGREE IS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV WETTER THAN THE MET.

QPF FROM THE EUROPEAN...GFS...NAM...AND SREF WERE COMPARED.
DEPENDING ON WHAT VERIFIES...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AND A CHANCE IT WILL NOT. ITS LOGICAL
TO USE THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
HAVE SUBSTANTIAL QPF TUESDAY. A CATEGORICAL RAIN FORECAST IS IN
ORDER.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN AND WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS COULD CAUSE BIG
ERRORS. A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEST TO
CAPTURE SKILL FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U S MIDWEEK WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BRING A RESUMPTION OF
THE TYPICAL REGIME OF LATE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...STORMY...
UNSETTLED AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AS A FRONT
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STARTS OUT REASONABLY ALIGNED...WITH THE ECMWF
DIVERGING FROM BULK OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO A SHARPER AND QUICKER DIP IN THE FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JAMES BAY LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS FORCES THE RIDGE AXIS WEST INTO THE PLAINS FASTER
THAN OTHER MODELS. IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF IT ALL...THIS WOULD
LIKELY ONLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DESPITE THE MODEL VARIANCES...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN IN A CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED TO WARRANT DAILY CONVECTIVE THREATS. TEMPS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON STORM COVERAGE EACH DAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MID
TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

HAZE HAS FINALLY BURNED OFF AND CU HAS DEVELOPED AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE APPROACHED. THIN CIRRUS FROM UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AS WELL. THE CIRRUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MOST CU DIMINISHING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES NEAR CALM.

ANY HAZE OR MIST LINGERING MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER
AS A MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW FLOW ESTABLISHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SUPPORT DIURNAL CU FORMATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE APPROACHED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 051844
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER RAINY PERIOD SHOULD
BEGIN AS A FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS. LATE IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO TAKE CHARGE OF INDIANA WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH ALL MODELS POINTING TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHWEST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE MODELS ALSO AGREE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO MINIMUMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. GIVEN THE MAV HAS
CAPTURED THIS...AND DID VERY LAST NIGHT...IT WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE MONDAY IS GOING TO
BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THEY ALSO AGREE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL BE IN MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A FRONT WILL STALL.

WHERE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOESNT AGREE IS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV WETTER THAN THE MET.

QPF FROM THE EUROPEAN...GFS...NAM...AND SREF WERE COMPARED.
DEPENDING ON WHAT VERIFIES...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AND A CHANCE IT WILL NOT. ITS LOGICAL
TO USE THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
HAVE SUBSTANTIAL QPF TUESDAY. A CATEGORICAL RAIN FORECAST IS IN
ORDER.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN AND WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS COULD CAUSE BIG
ERRORS. A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEST TO
CAPTURE SKILL FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U S MIDWEEK WILL
GRADUALLY RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS A STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY. THE
PRESENCE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BRING A RESUMPTION OF
THE TYPICAL REGIME OF LATE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...STORMY...
UNSETTLED AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AS A FRONT
BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE STARTS OUT REASONABLY ALIGNED...WITH THE ECMWF
DIVERGING FROM BULK OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE
WEEKEND...LARGELY DUE TO A SHARPER AND QUICKER DIP IN THE FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE JAMES BAY LOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST. THIS FORCES THE RIDGE AXIS WEST INTO THE PLAINS FASTER
THAN OTHER MODELS. IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF IT ALL...THIS WOULD
LIKELY ONLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT FOR THE
WEEKEND...AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD ENABLE THE BOUNDARY TO SINK
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

DESPITE THE MODEL VARIANCES...AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN IN A CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED TO WARRANT DAILY CONVECTIVE THREATS. TEMPS WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON STORM COVERAGE EACH DAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MID
TO UPPER 80S BY FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

HAZE HAS FINALLY BURNED OFF AND CU HAS DEVELOPED AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE APPROACHED. THIN CIRRUS FROM UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AS WELL. THE CIRRUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MOST CU DIMINISHING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES NEAR CALM.

ANY HAZE OR MIST LINGERING MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER
AS A MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW FLOW ESTABLISHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SUPPORT DIURNAL CU FORMATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE APPROACHED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 051828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER RAINY PERIOD SHOULD
BEGIN AS A FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS. LATE IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO TAKE CHARGE OF INDIANA WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH ALL MODELS POINTING TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHWEST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE MODELS ALSO AGREE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO MINIMUMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. GIVEN THE MAV HAS
CAPTURED THIS...AND DID VERY LAST NIGHT...IT WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE MONDAY IS GOING TO
BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THEY ALSO AGREE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL BE IN MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A FRONT WILL STALL.

WHERE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOESNT AGREE IS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV WETTER THAN THE MET.

QPF FROM THE EUROPEAN...GFS...NAM...AND SREF WERE COMPARED.
DEPENDING ON WHAT VERIFIES...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AND A CHANCE IT WILL NOT. ITS LOGICAL
TO USE THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
HAVE SUBSTANTIAL QPF TUESDAY. A CATEGORICAL RAIN FORECAST IS IN
ORDER.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN AND WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS COULD CAUSE BIG
ERRORS. A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEST TO
CAPTURE SKILL FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

HAZE HAS FINALLY BURNED OFF AND CU HAS DEVELOPED AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE APPROACHED. THIN CIRRUS FROM UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AS WELL. THE CIRRUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MOST CU DIMINISHING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES NEAR CALM.

ANY HAZE OR MIST LINGERING MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER
AS A MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW FLOW ESTABLISHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SUPPORT DIURNAL CU FORMATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE APPROACHED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 051828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF INDIANA WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER RAINY PERIOD SHOULD
BEGIN AS A FRONT ARRIVES OVER THE HOOSIER STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS. LATE IN THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE
DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH IS LIKELY TO TAKE CHARGE OF INDIANA WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH ALL MODELS POINTING TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHWEST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN ISSUE.

THE MODELS ALSO AGREE WINDS SHOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST
NIGHT...SO MINIMUMS SHOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. GIVEN THE MAV HAS
CAPTURED THIS...AND DID VERY LAST NIGHT...IT WILL BE USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE BIGGEST PROBLEM IS POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

THE NUMERICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE MONDAY IS GOING TO
BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THEY ALSO AGREE BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
POPS WILL BE IN MOSTLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON
EXACTLY WHERE A FRONT WILL STALL.

WHERE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DOESNT AGREE IS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH THE MAV WETTER THAN THE MET.

QPF FROM THE EUROPEAN...GFS...NAM...AND SREF WERE COMPARED.
DEPENDING ON WHAT VERIFIES...THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AND A CHANCE IT WILL NOT. ITS LOGICAL
TO USE THE CHANCE POPS FROM THE MAV LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALL MODELS
HAVE SUBSTANTIAL QPF TUESDAY. A CATEGORICAL RAIN FORECAST IS IN
ORDER.

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN WHEN AND WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURS COULD CAUSE BIG
ERRORS. A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS BEST TO
CAPTURE SKILL FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

HAZE HAS FINALLY BURNED OFF AND CU HAS DEVELOPED AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE APPROACHED. THIN CIRRUS FROM UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AS WELL. THE CIRRUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MOST CU DIMINISHING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES NEAR CALM.

ANY HAZE OR MIST LINGERING MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER
AS A MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW FLOW ESTABLISHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SUPPORT DIURNAL CU FORMATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE APPROACHED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 051812
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
212 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY...THOUGH HIGH CLOUDS FROM A
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA MAY MAKE IT HAZY
AS WELL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TODAY...AND RISE INTO THE
UPPER 80S MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 051722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 051722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 051722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW AS LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SET THE STAGE FOR SOME RADIATIONAL FOG.
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION ALSO NOTED. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME MVFR BR AND CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS SUPPORT THAT ARGUMENT. NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG BUT SOME VIS
RESTRICTION CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND HAVE INTRODUCED JUST A HIGH
END MVFR MENTION FOR NOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 051642
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1242 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 051800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG OVERNIGHT AT ALL BUT KIND...
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

HAZE HAS FINALLY BURNED OFF AND CU HAS DEVELOPED AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE APPROACHED. THIN CIRRUS FROM UPPER LOW OVER TENNESSEE
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVER THE TERMINALS AS WELL. THE CIRRUS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH MOST CU DIMINISHING NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES NEAR CALM.

ANY HAZE OR MIST LINGERING MONDAY MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF FASTER
AS A MORE PRONOUNCED S/SW FLOW ESTABLISHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN
SUPPORT DIURNAL CU FORMATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS
ARE APPROACHED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 051409
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MVFR HAZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 16Z. REST UNCHANGED.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AFTER MVFR FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY A DRY COLUMN TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH. DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
COLUMN TONIGHT...THUS P6SM SKC.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 051409
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MVFR HAZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 16Z. REST UNCHANGED.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AFTER MVFR FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY A DRY COLUMN TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH. DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
COLUMN TONIGHT...THUS P6SM SKC.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 051409
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MVFR HAZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 16Z. REST UNCHANGED.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AFTER MVFR FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY A DRY COLUMN TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH. DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
COLUMN TONIGHT...THUS P6SM SKC.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 051409
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MVFR HAZE HAS BEEN SLOW TO BURN OFF SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH THE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY 16Z. REST UNCHANGED.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

AFTER MVFR FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY A DRY COLUMN TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH. DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
COLUMN TONIGHT...THUS P6SM SKC.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIWX 051057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD BR/HZ ACROSS NRN INDIANA SHOULD BURN OFF/MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING... OTRWS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS LIGHT SFC
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY RESULTING IN WK MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA... BUT ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT WIND
FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT SO DON`T PLAN TO INTRODUCE BR TO TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 051057
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD BR/HZ ACROSS NRN INDIANA SHOULD BURN OFF/MIX OUT BY LATE
MORNING... OTRWS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS RIDGING AND DRY AIRMASS PERSIST OVER THE AREA. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR BR ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS LIGHT SFC
FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY RESULTING IN WK MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA... BUT ALSO A LITTLE STRONGER GRADIENT WIND
FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT SO DON`T PLAN TO INTRODUCE BR TO TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 051022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AFTER MVFR FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY A DRY COLUMN TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH. DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
COLUMN TONIGHT...THUS P6SM SKC.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 051022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AFTER MVFR FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY A DRY COLUMN TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH. DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
COLUMN TONIGHT...THUS P6SM SKC.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 051022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 051200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 615 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AFTER MVFR FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SOME HIGH CLOUD ACROSS
THE TAF SITES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MAINLY A DRY COLUMN TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH. DRY FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY
COLUMN TONIGHT...THUS P6SM SKC.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 050839
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HZ/SMOKE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUN
UP UNTIL AFTER MIXING RESUMES. HIGH CLOUD CONTINUES TO STREAM IN
TO CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY.

A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 13Z-14Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 050839
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
439 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HZ/SMOKE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH SUN
UP UNTIL AFTER MIXING RESUMES. HIGH CLOUD CONTINUES TO STREAM IN
TO CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY.

A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY 13Z-14Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 050759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
359 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 050759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
359 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE BY
MONDAY NIGHT THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME STATIONARY...RESULTING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF CENTRAL INDIANA. THE ONLY EFFECT
TODAY WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
SUNSHINE FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY/S HIGHS AS 850 MB TEMPS APPROACH THE 14
DEGREE CELSIUS MARK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

FIRST...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LOW ORIGINATING OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LATER MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE
THIS SHIFTING SLIGHTLY...SO THIS WILL BE AN AREA TO MONITOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUALLY START INCREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER TUE 06Z...WITH DEFINITE AND LIKELY POPS ALL DAY TUESDAY AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHENS.

FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT SLOWS
DOWN AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT. SO...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGH END OF SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S BY MONDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AT THE SURFACE...BUT THERE WILL BE AN ABRUPT DROP
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT. TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY DUE TO THE INCREASED WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 050747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
IN BR ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOISTURE AT THE TERMINALS IS VERY SHALLOW... BUT ALSO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SMOKE IN THE AIR TONIGHT... SO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
THE TERMINALS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTD VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS AT FWA IN RESPONSE TO WK LOW LIFTING
SLOWLY NE ACROSS KY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 050747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
IN BR ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOISTURE AT THE TERMINALS IS VERY SHALLOW... BUT ALSO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SMOKE IN THE AIR TONIGHT... SO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
THE TERMINALS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTD VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS AT FWA IN RESPONSE TO WK LOW LIFTING
SLOWLY NE ACROSS KY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 050747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
IN BR ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOISTURE AT THE TERMINALS IS VERY SHALLOW... BUT ALSO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SMOKE IN THE AIR TONIGHT... SO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
THE TERMINALS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTD VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS AT FWA IN RESPONSE TO WK LOW LIFTING
SLOWLY NE ACROSS KY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 050747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
IN BR ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOISTURE AT THE TERMINALS IS VERY SHALLOW... BUT ALSO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SMOKE IN THE AIR TONIGHT... SO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
THE TERMINALS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTD VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS AT FWA IN RESPONSE TO WK LOW LIFTING
SLOWLY NE ACROSS KY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 050747
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
347 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA AND OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS
NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
SUMMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S. THE WARMING TREND WILL COME
TO AN END ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOG LIMITING VSBYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING... HWVR
BASED ON OBS AND WEBCAMS... VSBY RESTRICTIONS DON`T APPEAR TO BE
SGFNT AND WITH MOISTURE QUITE SHALLOW DOUBT IT WILL GET MUCH WORSE
SO PLAN NOT TO MENTION FOG IN TODAYS FCST.

LOW OVER KY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY NE INTO THE UPR
OH VALLEY TODAY/TNGT. CIRRUS SHIELD NW OF THE LOW WAS SPREADING
INTO SERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA TODAY. OTRWS... HEIGHTS WILL
CONT TO SLOWLY RISE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
RIDGE ALOFT FROM WI-MO MOVG EAST AHEAD OF RATHER STRONG TROF MOVG
ESE INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THIS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED DRY/STABLE
AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER DAY OF FAIR WX ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A
CONTD SLOW WARMING TREND. DECENT INSOLATION EVEN IN THE EAST
THROUGH CIRRUS FILTERED SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BOUNDARY LAYER
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING UP TO H85 ONCE AGAIN TODAY RESULTING IN
AFTN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN YDAY... IN THE L-M80S.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
STRONG AS PAST FEW NIGHTS... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND LITTLE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
L-M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MONDAY STILL
APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED IN BETWEEN A CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY LIFTING NE INTO THE
EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DAMPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO STILL ON TARGET TO FORCE THIS SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SHOWER/THUNDER
CHANCES REMAIN HIGH GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY LIMITED GIVEN
NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF BETTER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. NOT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE RISK ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN GIVEN
PROGGED DEEP/MOIST CLOUD LAYER (850 MB DEWPOINTS NEARING 15C).
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLER/DRIER WX AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE OH RIVER VALLEY IN FLATTER/QUASI ZONAL FLOW
REGIME. SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY AIDED/SMALLER SCALE SHORTWAVE FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS WEAK FLOW SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW CHANCE POPS LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS
IN BR ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MOISTURE AT THE TERMINALS IS VERY SHALLOW... BUT ALSO A FAIR
AMOUNT OF SMOKE IN THE AIR TONIGHT... SO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
THE TERMINALS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND
RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTD VFR CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU
TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS AT FWA IN RESPONSE TO WK LOW LIFTING
SLOWLY NE ACROSS KY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 050654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 050654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
254 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ZONAL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE W-SW
DURING THIS PERIOD ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER AIR TO ARRIVE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. GFS SUGGEST A POORLY ORGANIZED SHORT
WAVE...HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY/S
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONFIDENCE IN THESE POORLY DEFINED WAVE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS AS SUGGESTED BY ALL
BLEND. BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...AND NOSE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. WITH LIMITED FORCING AVAILABLE...FEEL THAT PRECIP CHANCES
ARE QUITE LIMITED...HOWEVER ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS.
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 050518
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
118 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO
OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT... OTHERWISE FAIR
WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS IN BR ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFR FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AT THE TERMINALS IS VERY SHALLOW...
SO WILL LEAVE A VFR FCST IN THE TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTD VFR
CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS AT FWA
IN RESPONSE TO WK LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE ACROSS KY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 050518
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
118 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO
OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT... OTHERWISE FAIR
WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS IN BR ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFR FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AT THE TERMINALS IS VERY SHALLOW...
SO WILL LEAVE A VFR FCST IN THE TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTD VFR
CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS AT FWA
IN RESPONSE TO WK LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE ACROSS KY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 050518
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
118 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO
OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT... OTHERWISE FAIR
WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS IN BR ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFR FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AT THE TERMINALS IS VERY SHALLOW...
SO WILL LEAVE A VFR FCST IN THE TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTD VFR
CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS AT FWA
IN RESPONSE TO WK LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE ACROSS KY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 050518
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
118 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA WILL MOVE EAST TO NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM KENTUCKY TO
OHIO. THIS SYSTEM WILL JUST CAUSE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT... OTHERWISE FAIR
WEATHER AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 60 WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN SOME MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO
VSBYS IN BR ACROSS NRN INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. BUFR FCST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOISTURE AT THE TERMINALS IS VERY SHALLOW...
SO WILL LEAVE A VFR FCST IN THE TAFS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING.
RATHER DRY AIRMASS AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTD VFR
CONDITIONS WITH JUST SCT CU TODAY ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS AT FWA
IN RESPONSE TO WK LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NE ACROSS KY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 050356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 050356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 050356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 050356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL PARTS AFTER FRIDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY
BEFORE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT...MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. NEXT
MONDAY WILL BE THE EXCEPTION WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1008 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EVENING...GENERALLY RUNNING NOW FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY W/SW
INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED CONVECTION POPPING UP AND DOWN
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA OTHERWISE DRY AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THE REGION THIS EVENING. 02Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE
RIPPLES ALONG IT THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. BROAD FORCING
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL EXPAND INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE WHICH MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...IT IS HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH MORE THAN JUST LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-70. HELD
ON TO A MENTION OF THUNDER WITH WEAK INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. BUMPED
LOWS UP A DEGREE WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POPS AS NEAR STATIONARY
FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
TO AROUND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
FOURTH...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
WITH DEEP MEAN LAYER RH PROGS SHOWING VERY NICE DRYING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT. SO...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOKS
DRY EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WELL SOUTH
OF INDIANAPOLIS DURING THE DAY ON THE FOURTH. HOWEVER...FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
FRONT...AND THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR SHOWER CHANCES
SOUTH AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL. THE 12Z NAM MOS WAS AN OUTLIER IN THIS
REGARDING WITH LIKELY POPS AS FAR NORTH AS LAFAYETTE FOR FRIDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS AND 12Z GFS MOS AND ENSEMBLE MOS ALL OPPOSE THE 12Z NAM
MOS AND APPEAR MORE REALISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS COMPARED
TO THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

12Z MOS BLEND SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY PER MOS
BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

LONG TERM WILL START OUR DRY AND THEN QUITE WET BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND NO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BY DAY 7. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE ON TO THE
EAST AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES OUR WAY.  THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MODELS AND THEY HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS LATE MONDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS OR
BETTER ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY
MOVE ON THROUGH AND MODELS MOVE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MONDAY.  OTHERWISE...WENT
CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND OF TEMPERATURES MOST OTHER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 050600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

KIND EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS THIS PERIOD.

ALL TAF SITES DEVELOP SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 051500Z THAT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY SUNSET SUNDAY.

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MVFR VSBY AT KLAF...KHUF AND KBMG WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT
KBMG LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG THINS TO UNRESTRICTED AROUND
051200Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...DRT/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 050223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FANTASTIC EVENING TO ENJOY INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIN CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAD EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 0130Z TEMPS WERE COMFORTABLE IN THE
70S.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PROMOTE PATCHY
FOG ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CIRRUS PRESENT AND ALSO RAISED
TEMPS FOR INDY METRO BASED ON LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. HAPPY 4TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 050000Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
DURING FORECAST. CIRRUS CLOUD FROM UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TN WILL
GLANCE THE AREA BEFORE SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS AROUND 45000 FT
FORM AROUND 051500Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 050223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FANTASTIC EVENING TO ENJOY INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIN CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAD EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 0130Z TEMPS WERE COMFORTABLE IN THE
70S.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PROMOTE PATCHY
FOG ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CIRRUS PRESENT AND ALSO RAISED
TEMPS FOR INDY METRO BASED ON LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. HAPPY 4TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE TO 050000Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NORTH WIND UNDER 5 KTS WILL SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST
DURING FORECAST. CIRRUS CLOUD FROM UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN TN WILL
GLANCE THE AREA BEFORE SCATTERED DAYTIME CUMULUS AROUND 45000 FT
FORM AROUND 051500Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 050156
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FANTASTIC EVENING TO ENJOY INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIN CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAD EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 0130Z TEMPS WERE COMFORTABLE IN THE
70S.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PROMOTE PATCHY
FOG ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CIRRUS PRESENT AND ALSO RAISED
TEMPS FOR INDY METRO BASED ON LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. HAPPY 4TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AROUND
4500 FT SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY START OF TAFS AND REFORM 051500Z.

VSBY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CARRIED MVFR TEMPO GROUPS 0800Z-1200Z AT ALL BUT KIND BASED
ON PERSISTENCE FROM EVENTS OF THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DAY OF DRYING
TODAY AND WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DOUBT IFR PERIOD TO
OCCUR LIKE THIS MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 050156
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 956 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FANTASTIC EVENING TO ENJOY INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. THIN CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAD EXPANDED INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. 0130Z TEMPS WERE COMFORTABLE IN THE
70S.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. CIRRUS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOUTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
TENNESSEE. GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PROMOTE PATCHY
FOG ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK. BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE
OR TWO OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH CIRRUS PRESENT AND ALSO RAISED
TEMPS FOR INDY METRO BASED ON LOWS LAST FEW NIGHTS.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. HAPPY 4TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AROUND
4500 FT SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY START OF TAFS AND REFORM 051500Z.

VSBY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CARRIED MVFR TEMPO GROUPS 0800Z-1200Z AT ALL BUT KIND BASED
ON PERSISTENCE FROM EVENTS OF THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DAY OF DRYING
TODAY AND WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DOUBT IFR PERIOD TO
OCCUR LIKE THIS MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 042312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NEARLY IDEAL HOLIDAY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 60. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S
UNDER HAZY BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL POCKETS OF
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AGAIN BUT LIKELY WILL REMAIN
OVER RURAL/AGRICULTURAL AREAS SO KEPT TAFS IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 042312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NEARLY IDEAL HOLIDAY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 60. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S
UNDER HAZY BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL POCKETS OF
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AGAIN BUT LIKELY WILL REMAIN
OVER RURAL/AGRICULTURAL AREAS SO KEPT TAFS IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 042312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NEARLY IDEAL HOLIDAY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 60. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S
UNDER HAZY BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL POCKETS OF
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AGAIN BUT LIKELY WILL REMAIN
OVER RURAL/AGRICULTURAL AREAS SO KEPT TAFS IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 042312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NEARLY IDEAL HOLIDAY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 60. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S
UNDER HAZY BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL POCKETS OF
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AGAIN BUT LIKELY WILL REMAIN
OVER RURAL/AGRICULTURAL AREAS SO KEPT TAFS IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 042312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NEARLY IDEAL HOLIDAY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 60. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S
UNDER HAZY BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL POCKETS OF
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AGAIN BUT LIKELY WILL REMAIN
OVER RURAL/AGRICULTURAL AREAS SO KEPT TAFS IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 042312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE NEARLY IDEAL HOLIDAY CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S BY MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 60. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE 80S
UNDER HAZY BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDING
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS. SMALL POCKETS OF
GROUND FOG POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK AGAIN BUT LIKELY WILL REMAIN
OVER RURAL/AGRICULTURAL AREAS SO KEPT TAFS IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 042255
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
655 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AROUND
4500 FT SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY START OF TAFS AND REFORM 051500Z.

VSBY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CARRIED MVFR TEMPO GROUPS 0800Z-1200Z AT ALL BUT KIND BASED
ON PERSISTENCE FROM EVENTS OF THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DAY OF DRYING
TODAY AND WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DOUBT IFR PERIOD TO
OCCUR LIKE THIS MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 042255
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
655 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AROUND
4500 FT SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY START OF TAFS AND REFORM 051500Z.

VSBY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CARRIED MVFR TEMPO GROUPS 0800Z-1200Z AT ALL BUT KIND BASED
ON PERSISTENCE FROM EVENTS OF THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DAY OF DRYING
TODAY AND WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DOUBT IFR PERIOD TO
OCCUR LIKE THIS MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 042255
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
655 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 050000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WINDS BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR CLOUDS AROUND
4500 FT SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED BY START OF TAFS AND REFORM 051500Z.

VSBY REMAINS BIGGEST QUESTION. CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.
HAVE CARRIED MVFR TEMPO GROUPS 0800Z-1200Z AT ALL BUT KIND BASED
ON PERSISTENCE FROM EVENTS OF THIS MORNING. GIVEN A DAY OF DRYING
TODAY AND WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY DOUBT IFR PERIOD TO
OCCUR LIKE THIS MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 042036
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
436 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 041800Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE QUITE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT THE MOMENT BUT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLIDES TO THE EAST A STEADY SHIFT TO AN
ENE WIND AND EVENTUAL SE WIND WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

SOME HAZINESS MAY OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK BUT STILL THINKING VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 042036
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
436 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 041800Z KIND TAF/...

ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FORECAST APPEARS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH FEW DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNSET. WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE QUITE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT THE MOMENT BUT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLIDES TO THE EAST A STEADY SHIFT TO AN
ENE WIND AND EVENTUAL SE WIND WILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING.

SOME HAZINESS MAY OCCUR NEAR DAYBREAK BUT STILL THINKING VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 041924
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CU BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT WITH GRADUAL SCATTERING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY DRY AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH/EXCEED. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN NO MENTION OF BR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 041924
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GREAT LAKES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE GULF COAST STATES...THIS LEAVES OUR AREA IN
SPLIT FLOW WITH VERY BENIGN WEATHER. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDENT SURFACE HIGH WILL LEAD TO GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO REACH THE
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...DESPITE FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY. NOT MUCH SIGNAL IN MOS GUIDANCE EITHER.
SUSPECT THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF SHALLOW FOG/BR AS THERE ALMOST
ALWAYS ARE IN THESE SITUATIONS BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WARMER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA DEVELOPS. THIS COUPLED WITH DRY
AIRMASS/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S...A NEAR 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED
AND PERSISTENT SMOKE ALOFT WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZY/MILKY SKIES. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER CANT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY BUT DEGREE OF DRY
AIR...SUBSIDENCE...AND CAPPING WARRANT CONTINUED DRY FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A WEAK INDUCED SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LARGER SCALE WAVE TO IMPACT THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND EFFECTS FROM
MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE
SUNDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SHOULD TEND TO SEE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME UPSWING IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. BY EARLY MONDAY...LOCAL AREA WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND THE
STRONGER VORT WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF CONUS. STILL EXPECTING
A DRY DAY MONDAY DUE TO LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH ANY PRECIP FROM
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF LOCAL AREA.

MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO RAMP UP FOR MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY UPPER WAVE WILL DAMPEN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FRONTAL PROGRESSION. NAM
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SLOW OUTLIER BUT ALSO MAY BE SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED
CONSENSUS SREF/GFS BLEND FOR DETAILS IN FRONTAL TIMING DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. NON-IMPRESSIVE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SHEAR REMAINING POST-FRONTAL STILL
ARGUE FOR ONLY A LOW THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. SOME
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE POOLING WITH PWATS APPROACHING THE 1.85-2 INCH
RANGE COMBINED WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TUESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON-TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. A SERIES OF
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVES COULD INTERACT WITH BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
THURSDAY-SATURDAY. HAVE KEPT POPS ON SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE SIDE FOR
THIS PERIOD WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHORT WAVE TIMING AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CU BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT WITH GRADUAL SCATTERING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY DRY AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH/EXCEED. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN NO MENTION OF BR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 041857
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TAF
SITES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO EASTERN OHIO
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
TENNESSEE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR DAYTIME CU SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT FEW CU OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE KBMG MAY SEE BROKEN CU
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KBMG...KLAF AND KHUF TAFS
FROM 08Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT VFR WITH A FEW CU AGAIN SUNDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





















000
FXUS63 KIND 041857
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TAF
SITES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO EASTERN OHIO
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
TENNESSEE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR DAYTIME CU SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT FEW CU OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE KBMG MAY SEE BROKEN CU
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KBMG...KLAF AND KHUF TAFS
FROM 08Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT VFR WITH A FEW CU AGAIN SUNDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





















000
FXUS63 KIND 041857
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION TUESDAY WILL STALL
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE TRENDED WETTER ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL ADD
LIKELY POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH THERE WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.  A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOWARDS SATURDAY.  WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT MY
CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SEEMS LOW UNTIL SATURDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY ON RISING TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S BY SATURDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S RISING TO THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 BY THE WEEKEND.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
SUPER BLEND ON LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO LOTS OF
CLOUDS AND SOME PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TAF
SITES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO EASTERN OHIO
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
TENNESSEE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR DAYTIME CU SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT FEW CU OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE KBMG MAY SEE BROKEN CU
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KBMG...KLAF AND KHUF TAFS
FROM 08Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT VFR WITH A FEW CU AGAIN SUNDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






















000
FXUS63 KIND 041807
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TAF
SITES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO EASTERN OHIO
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
TENNESSEE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR DAYTIME CU SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT FEW CU OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE KBMG MAY SEE BROKEN CU
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KBMG...KLAF AND KHUF TAFS
FROM 08Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT VFR WITH A FEW CU AGAIN SUNDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 041807
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CAMPS OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BACK IN
THE PICTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL COOL OFF A BIT
AGAIN BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

QUIET FOURTH OF JULY NIGHT IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WEATHER-WISE
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...WITH THE ONLY FIREWORKS EXPECTED...BEING THE
STORE BOUGHT KIND. THIS SHOULD MAKE THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SATISFIED IF NOT HAPPY. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON
TEMPERATURES AS ANY DIURNAL CU WILL BE LOST AT SUNSET AND SIMILAR
MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND SATELLITE TRENDS ONLY HINT AT SOME
PASSING CIRRUS IN WEST FLOW ALOFT.

850 TEMPERATURES FROM 13 TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS...LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS
SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 12Z MOS NUMBERS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. COULD ALSO SEE MORE OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON ARRIVAL TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS AGREE A COLD
FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE MODELS TOY AROUND WITH SPOTTY QPF AT VARIOUS TIMES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW...THINK UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS MOSTLY DRY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION. IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES TO 15 TO 16
DEGREES CELSIUS ON SUNDAY AND 17 TO 18 ON MONDAY. 850 MILLIBAR
FORECASTING CHART USING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PER MODEL RH TIME
SECTIONS AND CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS SUGGESTS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT
OR NEAR 12Z MOS WITH NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND
MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY.

THINGS SHOULD CHANGE BY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. THE
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PART OF THE FRONT. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY FASTER
WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FRONT. WITH THE
12Z RUN...THE GFS IS NOW CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF...00Z GEFS MEAN AND
ECENS MEAN WITH THE FRONTAL POSITION. THIS WOULD BE FROM AROUND
SOUTH BEND TO OKLAHOMA CITY AT 12Z TUESDAY...FORT WAYNE TO ST. LOUIS
AT 18Z AND MUNCIE TO INDIANAPOLIS TO TERRE HAUTE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A REASONABLE PROGRESSION BASED ON TRENDS AND LAST
NIGHT`S ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR HOLDING OFF CHANCE
POPS TIL OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.

AT ANY RATE...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL INTERACT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS
ON TUESDAY...WHEN MODEL TIME SECTIONS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
STRONGEST VERTICAL VELOCITIES. LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO LOOK GOOD.

THE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THICK CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PER
ENSEMBLE MOS LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TAF
SITES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO EASTERN OHIO
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
TENNESSEE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR DAYTIME CU SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT FEW CU OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE KBMG MAY SEE BROKEN CU
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KBMG...KLAF AND KHUF TAFS
FROM 08Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT VFR WITH A FEW CU AGAIN SUNDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIWX 041722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CU BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT WITH GRADUAL SCATTERING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY DRY AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH/EXCEED. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN NO MENTION OF BR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 041722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CU BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT WITH GRADUAL SCATTERING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY DRY AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH/EXCEED. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN NO MENTION OF BR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 041722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CU BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT WITH GRADUAL SCATTERING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY DRY AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH/EXCEED. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN NO MENTION OF BR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 041722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CU BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT WITH GRADUAL SCATTERING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY DRY AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH/EXCEED. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN NO MENTION OF BR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 041722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CU BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT WITH GRADUAL SCATTERING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY DRY AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH/EXCEED. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN NO MENTION OF BR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 041722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CU BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT CEILING
HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 3 KFT WITH GRADUAL SCATTERING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY MVFR BR AROUND SUNRISE AGAIN TOMORROW.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR VERY DRY AND CROSS-OVER TEMPS
OF MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE DIFFICULT TO REACH/EXCEED. WILL
THEREFORE MAINTAIN NO MENTION OF BR WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 041651
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TAF
SITES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO EASTERN OHIO
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
TENNESSEE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR DAYTIME CU SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT FEW CU OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE KBMG MAY SEE BROKEN CU
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KBMG...KLAF AND KHUF TAFS
FROM 08Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT VFR WITH A FEW CU AGAIN SUNDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIND 041651
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT OUTLYING TAF
SITES.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TO EASTERN OHIO
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY...WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
TENNESSEE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS WITH A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE FOR DAYTIME CU SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

EXPECT FEW CU OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS WHILE KBMG MAY SEE BROKEN CU
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON.  ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR OUT
TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT KBMG...KLAF AND KHUF TAFS
FROM 08Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. AFTER THAT VFR WITH A FEW CU AGAIN SUNDAY.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING
LIGHT TONIGHT AND SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS SUNDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 041647
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER JUST A TOUCH PER SATELLITE TRENDS...OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL INDIAN FROM THE
WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE ATTAINABLE
MIDDLE 70S AND CU RULE IS NEGATIVE...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 050800Z AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 041647
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 1247 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER JUST A TOUCH PER SATELLITE TRENDS...OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL INDIAN FROM THE
WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE ATTAINABLE
MIDDLE 70S AND CU RULE IS NEGATIVE...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 050800Z AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/MK
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS















000
FXUS63 KIWX 041538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1138 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SFC OBS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ATTM... BUT STILL VFR AT SBN/FWA TERMINALS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEPER AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT EVEN THIS
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY VFR SO DON`T PLAN TO EXTEND TEMPO BR MENTION
INTO THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO STILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT HELD OFF INTRODUCING BR TO EITHER TAF ATTM
IN ORDER TO SEE HOW THIS MORNING`S FOG/VSBYS PLAY OUT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 041538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1138 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT PROVIDING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SFC OBS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ATTM... BUT STILL VFR AT SBN/FWA TERMINALS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEPER AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT EVEN THIS
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY VFR SO DON`T PLAN TO EXTEND TEMPO BR MENTION
INTO THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO STILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT HELD OFF INTRODUCING BR TO EITHER TAF ATTM
IN ORDER TO SEE HOW THIS MORNING`S FOG/VSBYS PLAY OUT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 041428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL INDIAN FROM THE
WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE ATTAINABLE
MIDDLE 70S AND CU RULE IS NEGATIVE...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 050800Z AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 041428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL INDIAN FROM THE
WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE ATTAINABLE
MIDDLE 70S AND CU RULE IS NEGATIVE...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 050800Z AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 041428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PORTION OF PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO CENTRAL INDIAN FROM THE
WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE ATTAINABLE
MIDDLE 70S AND CU RULE IS NEGATIVE...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 050800Z AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIWX 041036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SFC OBS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ATTM... BUT STILL VFR AT SBN/FWA TERMINALS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEPER AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT EVEN THIS
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY VFR SO DON`T PLAN TO EXTEND TEMPO BR MENTION
INTO THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO STILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT HELD OFF INTRODUCING BR TO EITHER TAF ATTM
IN ORDER TO SEE HOW THIS MORNING`S FOG/VSBYS PLAY OUT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 041036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SFC OBS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ATTM... BUT STILL VFR AT SBN/FWA TERMINALS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEPER AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT EVEN THIS
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY VFR SO DON`T PLAN TO EXTEND TEMPO BR MENTION
INTO THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO STILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT HELD OFF INTRODUCING BR TO EITHER TAF ATTM
IN ORDER TO SEE HOW THIS MORNING`S FOG/VSBYS PLAY OUT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 041036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SFC OBS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ATTM... BUT STILL VFR AT SBN/FWA TERMINALS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEPER AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT EVEN THIS
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY VFR SO DON`T PLAN TO EXTEND TEMPO BR MENTION
INTO THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO STILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT HELD OFF INTRODUCING BR TO EITHER TAF ATTM
IN ORDER TO SEE HOW THIS MORNING`S FOG/VSBYS PLAY OUT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 041036
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SFC OBS SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NRN INDIANA
ATTM... BUT STILL VFR AT SBN/FWA TERMINALS. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT MOISTURE IS A LITTLE DEPER AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT EVEN THIS
TERMINAL IS CURRENTLY VFR SO DON`T PLAN TO EXTEND TEMPO BR MENTION
INTO THIS TAF PERIOD. LITTLE OR NO CLOUDINESS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS A RATHER DRY/STABLE AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROGGED TO STILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
AT FWA THAN SBN... BUT HELD OFF INTRODUCING BR TO EITHER TAF ATTM
IN ORDER TO SEE HOW THIS MORNING`S FOG/VSBYS PLAY OUT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 040956
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
556 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

LINGERING MORNING FOG AT LAF AND BMG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING AS HEATING RESUMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO CENTRAL INDIAN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE ATTAINABLE MIDDLE 70S AND CU RULE IS
NEGATIVE...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 050800Z AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040956
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
556 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 041200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

LINGERING MORNING FOG AT LAF AND BMG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF THIS
MORNING AS HEATING RESUMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO CENTRAL INDIAN FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE ATTAINABLE MIDDLE 70S AND CU RULE IS
NEGATIVE...THUS WILL EXPECT SOME SCT CU TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 050800Z AT LAF...BMG AND HUF.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 040819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE VFR CIGS OVER
INDY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXITING INDY. WILL ALLOW CIGS
TO BECOME UNLIMITED AS CLEAR SKIES SEEN MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE TAFS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

/DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 040819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
419 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 040900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE VFR CIGS OVER
INDY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST...EXITING INDY. WILL ALLOW CIGS
TO BECOME UNLIMITED AS CLEAR SKIES SEEN MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE TAFS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.

/DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 040755
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 040755
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL PUT
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MONDAY EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN TRIGGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DRIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE.

TIME CROSS SECTIONS ARE INDICATING MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...SO AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS A COLD FRONT PROGGED
FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN A WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS NEAR
NORMAL ON SUNDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE PROJECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PATTERN WILL CHANGE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SO
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST
STARTING MONDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE COURSE OF MONDAY
NIGHT AS FORCING INTENSIFIES WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 040749
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 040749
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 040749
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 040749
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 040749
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 80 WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY... WITH SHOWERS LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SHRTWV OVER SRN INDIANA AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN OH WERE MOVG
EAST THIS MORNING WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE W-NW
IN ITS WAKE. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WK GRADIENT ALLOWING
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WITH CROSS-OVER TEMPS IN THE U50S
BEING EXCEEDED FOG WAS BEGINNING TO FORM SO HAVE ADDED TO FCST FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

RIDGE ALOFT OVER MN/IA EXPECTED TO BUILD TOWARD OUR AREA TODAY
AND MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIR WX TODAY
WITH LITTLE CLOUDINESS AS DRIER AIRMASS/SUBSIDENCE CONTS TO MOVE
IN. SMOKE ALOFT FROM CANADIAN FOREST FIRES EXTENDED AS FAR SOUTH
AS THE GRTLKS/OH VALLEY YDAY BUT WAS THICKER TO THE NW JUST AHEAD
OF THE UPR RIDGE AXIS... AND THIS THICKER SMOKE LAYER COULD MOVE
OVER OUR AREA TODAY LIMITING SUNSHINE SOMEWHAT... BUT STILL EXPECT
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION AND WARMING ALOFT FOR HIGHS AROUND 80.

LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUD-FREE SKIES WILL CONT TONIGHT AS UPR RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH BLO NORMAL LOWS IN
THE U50S/L60S. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG MAY FORM ONCE AGAIN BUT
QUESTIONABLE AFTER A DAY OF NEARLY FULL SUN IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT FOR SIGNIFICANT VSBY
RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG SO LEFT MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FCST FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...DECENT RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES
TUESDAY...AND A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID-LATE WEEK THE
HIGHLIGHTS THIS PERIOD...

RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ENSURE A MAINLY
DRY/WARM SUNDAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LATE DAY
SHOWER ALONG LAKE BREEZE INTERFACE IN NW IN/SW LOWER MI GIVEN
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...ALTHOUGH LACKING
MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE SUGGEST HOLDING WITH A DRY FCST THE
WAY TO GO ATTM. MONDAY VERY SIMILAR WITH THE LOCAL AREA IN BETWEEN
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTING
INTO THE EASTERN OH/TN VALLEYS.

A LARGER SCALE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THE UPPER
LAKES/ONTARIO WILL FORCE A SLOWING/WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOLD OVER OF
MODEST/NARROW THETA-E RIDGE (PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES ALONG
BOUNDARY PER LATEST GUIDANCE) SHOULD SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERN MODEL
CONSENSUS POPS MAY BE A BIT HIGH GIVEN NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/FORCING. THIS IN TANDEM WITH POOR DIURNAL
TIMING AND MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE THE SEVERE
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 040635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 040635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 040635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 040635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY FOR FORCING OR DYNAMICS.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOWER LEVEL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN
STALLED ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. MID LEVELS SUGGEST SOME AREAS OF HIGH RH PUSHING OVER
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POP GOING AS SEEN IN
ALL BLEND.

LATE IN THE WEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE STALLED BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS
SUSPECT. AGAIN...ALL BLEND CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POPS...THUS WILL
TREND TOWARD CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 040454
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1254 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 80S... EXCEPT ONLY IN
THE MID 70S CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. AS
A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A BKN-OVC DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM AND HOST OF OTHER
MODELS ARE OVERDOING POPS/QPF THUS FAR...SO HAVE STUCK TO USING THE
HRRR AS IT HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT SEEMS PCP HAS FAILED TO
MAKE IT FAR NORTHWARD THUS FAR...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY THIS
EVENING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SKIES CLEARING...AND
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WAS HESITANT TO ADD
ANYTHING INTO FCST. IF ANYTHING...THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A BR
SITUATION WITH VIS 3-5 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A
BIT MORE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE FORCING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND WITH LOCAL AREA LIKELY SPLIT BY FORCING ONCE AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITY MAY
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT NOT OF LARGE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY TRY TO GET
INGESTED BACK INTO NORTHERN STREAM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOCAL AREA REMAINING ON EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONGER FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF.
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MAINTAINED IDEA OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWARD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING AS
SFC LOW OVER SRN OH MOVES TO THE EAST. PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING
BR EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHC OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AT FWA WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER. SFC
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD MIX
DOWN TO THE SFC BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT. RIDGING/WARMING
ALOFT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CLOUD
COVER. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM INDIANA TO OHIO TONIGHT. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR WITH GRADIENT WK ENOUGH TO RESULT IN
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG/BR PSBL
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 040333 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND FOG POSSIBLE THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
SKIES ARE CLEARING FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT
STRATOCU WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT KBMG...KHUF AND
KIND UNTIL STRONGER SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING WAVE. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND THROUGH DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME DIURNAL CU
FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. MOST CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 040225 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE 03Z UPDATE AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR STRATOCU LIKELY LINGERS AT
KBMG...KIND AND POSSIBLY KHUF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES.

00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 040225 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE 03Z UPDATE AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. VFR STRATOCU LIKELY LINGERS AT
KBMG...KIND AND POSSIBLY KHUF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ARRIVES.

00Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 032339
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OTHERWISE..CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH AROUND 80...EXCEPT IN THE MID 70S CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. AS
A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A BKN-OVC DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM AND HOST OF OTHER
MODELS ARE OVERDOING POPS/QPF THUS FAR...SO HAVE STUCK TO USING THE
HRRR AS IT HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT SEEMS PCP HAS FAILED TO
MAKE IT FAR NORTHWARD THUS FAR...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY THIS
EVENING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SKIES CLEARING...AND
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WAS HESITANT TO ADD
ANYTHING INTO FCST. IF ANYTHING...THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A BR
SITUATION WITH VIS 3-5 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A
BIT MORE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE FORCING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND WITH LOCAL AREA LIKELY SPLIT BY FORCING ONCE AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITY MAY
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT NOT OF LARGE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY TRY TO GET
INGESTED BACK INTO NORTHERN STREAM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOCAL AREA REMAINING ON EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONGER FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF.
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MAINTAINED IDEA OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWARD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF BR OVERNIGHT AT
KFWA SO LEFT THAT IN THIS ISSUANCE WITH A TEMPO GROUP. VIS
SATELLITE DOES SHOW LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE/HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILD
FIRES APPROACHING OUR AREA. WHILE LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE A HAZE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW KEEPING SFC VIS VFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 032339
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
739 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OTHERWISE..CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH AROUND 80...EXCEPT IN THE MID 70S CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. AS
A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A BKN-OVC DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM AND HOST OF OTHER
MODELS ARE OVERDOING POPS/QPF THUS FAR...SO HAVE STUCK TO USING THE
HRRR AS IT HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT SEEMS PCP HAS FAILED TO
MAKE IT FAR NORTHWARD THUS FAR...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY THIS
EVENING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SKIES CLEARING...AND
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WAS HESITANT TO ADD
ANYTHING INTO FCST. IF ANYTHING...THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A BR
SITUATION WITH VIS 3-5 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A
BIT MORE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE FORCING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND WITH LOCAL AREA LIKELY SPLIT BY FORCING ONCE AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITY MAY
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT NOT OF LARGE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY TRY TO GET
INGESTED BACK INTO NORTHERN STREAM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOCAL AREA REMAINING ON EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONGER FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF.
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MAINTAINED IDEA OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWARD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF BR OVERNIGHT AT
KFWA SO LEFT THAT IN THIS ISSUANCE WITH A TEMPO GROUP. VIS
SATELLITE DOES SHOW LARGE AMOUNT OF SMOKE/HAZE FROM CANADIAN WILD
FIRES APPROACHING OUR AREA. WHILE LITTLE IMPACT TO AVIATION
OPERATIONS...THIS WILL LIKELY LEAVE A HAZE OVER THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD BUT FOR NOW KEEPING SFC VIS VFR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 032303 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 032303 CCA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 032302
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 702 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

WILL BLANKET A 15 POP WITH ISOLATED WORDING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS PER RADAR TRENDS. SHOULD SEE SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AND SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK/NIELD
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 032301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 032301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 040000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MVFR CEILINGS MAY STILL IMPACT KBMG THIS EVENING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

PESKY UPPER WAVE DRIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT...TAKING ALL OF THE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND LOWER CEILINGS
ALONG WITH IT. OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST...SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW. COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KIND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

FANTASTIC INDEPENDENCE DAY FOR AVIATORS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU FORMATION DURING THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIND 032015
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THE FOURTH OF JULY. THIS WILL PUT AN END
TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A
DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY
AND STALLS NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THE FOURTH WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
AFTER THAT...IT WILL WARM SLIGHTLY TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF AS
LATEST OBS WERE SHOWING TWO OR MORE UPSTREAM WAVES THAT WILL SLIDE
ALONG AND SLOW THE EXIT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS NEAR LOUISVILLE...A SECOND WAS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FINAL WAVE SHOULD MOVE TO THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO END LOW POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY PROGS HAD ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER DURING
THE EVENING. MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE SHOULD ALSO BE
PARTIAL CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH
PATCHY FOG...AND LET EVENING CREW EVALUATE IF DENSE SHOULD BE
MENTIONED.

WITH THE CLEARING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ALL THE WAY TO THE
UPPER 50S NORTHWEST AND LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THE FOURTH OF JULY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ON CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES AS MODELS AGREE THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
FINALLY DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS
WILL PUT AN END TO THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND PROVIDE
FOR A DRY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY.

MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU PROGS ARE ONLY SUGGESTING
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MONDAY. THE FOURTH
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR
12Z MOS SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
MEANWHILE...850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 16 DEGREES OR SO
ALONG WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY AND MID TO UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ZONAL IN THE LONG TERM. HOWEVER
MODELS MOVE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
THEN ALL MODELS ARE QUITE WET TUESDAY AS THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
OUR REGION.  THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

THERE ARE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
EURO TRENDING DRIER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEMNH KEEP THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.  FOR NOW WILL
BLEND AND ONLY MENTION 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK.

SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE A TOO COOL ON LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  THEY ACT AS THE FRONT ON TO THE
SOUTH AND WITH MODELS STALLING IT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RAISE LOWS
SOME.  OVERALL SUPER BLEND TEMPERATURES SEEM OK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
MOST PERIODS.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 032100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE UPDATE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE A BIT
MORE ABUNDANT AS FAR NORTH AS KHUF AND KIND. THE LOWER CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN FROM THE WEST. REST OF THE FORECASTS IN GOOD SHAPE.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND AREAS
OF MVFR OR IFR FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE.  OTHERWISE...VFR REST OF THE
PERIOD.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA CAUSING AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. AFTER 21Z...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 4 THOUSAND FEET WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER
TONIGHT.

EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR FOG WITH FEW POCKETS OF IFR FOG ESPECIALLY
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.  OTHERWISE EXPECT
FEW-SCATTERED CU SATURDAY.

NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT AND NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS



















000
FXUS63 KIWX 031944
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
344 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ROUTE 24. OTHERWISE..CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL REACH AROUND 80...EXCEPT IN THE MID 70S CLOSER TO LAKE
MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE 4TH OF JULY...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BELOW. AS
A RESULT...HAVE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SFC LOW SHIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS BROUGHT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO THE SOUTHERN CWA AND A BKN-OVC DECK OF HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. NAM AND HOST OF OTHER
MODELS ARE OVERDOING POPS/QPF THUS FAR...SO HAVE STUCK TO USING THE
HRRR AS IT HAS DONE WELL WITH THE MORE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IT SEEMS PCP HAS FAILED TO
MAKE IT FAR NORTHWARD THUS FAR...AND EXPECT IT TO STAY THAT WAY THIS
EVENING.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD...SKIES CLEARING...AND
WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE WOULD EXPECT SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED WAS HESITANT TO ADD
ANYTHING INTO FCST. IF ANYTHING...THINKING IT WILL BE MORE OF A BR
SITUATION WITH VIS 3-5 MILES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A
BIT MORE MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

DISJOINTED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER
NORTHERN STREAM VORT MAX SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE FORCING WITH SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH GENERALLY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED AND WITH LOCAL AREA LIKELY SPLIT BY FORCING ONCE AGAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITY MAY
EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT NOT OF LARGE ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT THIS TIME.

CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MAY TRY TO GET
INGESTED BACK INTO NORTHERN STREAM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS LIKELY POPS FOR
THIS PERIOD. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOW SIDE
GIVEN EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING...MEAGER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND LOCAL AREA REMAINING ON EXTREME SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
STRONGER FORCING WORKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TUESDAY EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF.
COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS A WEAK MID
LEVEL TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK DOWNSTREAM LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION
IN ASSOCIATION WITH BOUNDARY IN VICINITY. MAINTAINED IDEA OF
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAKES A MORE AGGRESSIVE
NORTHWARD SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY IS CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...WITH MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON SEEING
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT AND A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK AROUND
15KFT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS SOUTHEAST...EXPECT A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY LATE EVENING...AND BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. AT THIS
POINT...THINKING KFWA HAS THE BEST CHANCE BUT DO NOT SEE
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 3-4 MILES GIVEN INCOMING DRIER AIR.
FOR NOW KEPT 4SM BR IN FOR KFWA STARTING AT 9Z. QUIET WEATHER/VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MCD
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MCD


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