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000
FXUS63 KIND 230228
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...SO NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/0300Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 230139
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
939 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...SO NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 230139
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
939 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 936 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
CURRENT IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
REGION...SO NO CHANGES TO FORECAST. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIWX 222331
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
731 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.

EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED  SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

LOW CLOUD DECK ALONG OH/IN BORDER EXPECTED TO CONT TO ERODE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER MI MOVES SLOWLY SE. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THU MORNING. MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW SO
ONLY MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT E-NE
WINDS SHOULD VEER TO S-SW THU AS RIDGE MOVES SE TO THE OH VALLEY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY PERHAPS SUPPORTING SCT FAIR WX CU.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 222238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY THINNING
OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
WEST INTO MISSOURI.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 222238
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY THINNING
OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
WEST INTO MISSOURI.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 230000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHALLOW GROUND FOG NEAR
DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HOOSIER STATE THIS EVENING WITH A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT
CLEAR SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO SEE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP
AROUND DAYBREAK AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE LINGERS NEAR GROUND
LEVEL.

WINDS WILL VEER TO S/SW ON THURSDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. WILL SEE SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WITH POSSIBLY SOME THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 222014
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY THINNING
OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
WEST INTO MISSOURI.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 222100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

STRATOCU QUICKLY ERODING AWAY WITH MOST OF THE HOOSIER STATE
ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES. REMOVED MENTION OF FEW CLOUDS FOR REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AT KIND AND ADDED IN A BRIEF PERIOD WITH MVFR FOG IN THE
MORNING. REST UNCHANGED.

18Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SHALLOW
GROUND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO PULL
SLOWLY AWAY TO THE EAST. STRATOCU HAS PERSISTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE INDY
METRO SO FAR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
AIR. OTHER THAN A FEW STRATOCU AT 2500-3500FT...EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES HOLD TONIGHT WITH DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS...LIKELY TO SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR AT ALL
BUT KIND IN THE 08-14Z TIMEFRAME BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES GO
EVEN LOWER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221955
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
MICHIGAN AND INDIANA. CLOUDS OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL SLOWLY ERODE
THIS EVENING LEAVING BEHIND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
CONDITIONS...A FEW WEATHER ISSUES DO PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TELLS THE STORY WITH STRATUS DECK STILL
LINGERING OVER EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AS OF 18Z. SOME SLOW
EROSION HAS BEEN NOTED OVER WESTERN EDGE AND SOME CLEARING
APPROACHING FROM NORTHEAST PER LIGHT NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS.
MODELS REMAIN RATHER PERSISTENT THAT AREA OF STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING PER HRRR RH AND TOTAL CLOUD COVER
PLOTS ALONG WITH LATEST RAP13 RH FIELDS IN THE 900-850MB LAYERS.
CONCERN THOUGH LIES WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
A RATHER STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION. 925-850MB THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH 500MB
RIDGE AXIS. TYPICALLY STRATUS EROSION DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL PASSAGE
OF THESE FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY AIRMASS
SITTING ATOP VERY THIN LAYER OF CLOUDS AND INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CLOUD DECK
AS ADVERTISED. HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THE EROSION IN THE SKY COVER
GRIDS BUT DID KEEP THE OPTIMISTIC ATTITUDE IN ORDER TO MATCH
SURROUNDING SITES FOR A MORE CONSISTENT LOOKING FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES TO BE IMPACTED SIGNIFICANTLY IF THESE CLOUDS DO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOR NOW STAYED WITH PERSISTENCE AND OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE LAST
WEEK...15 DAYS AND 30 DAYS SO WILL RIDE WITH THAT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A VERY MOIST SHALLOW LAYER NEAR SURFACE UNDER
STRONG INVERSION WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A
DEEP COLUMN. THIS USUALLY AN IDEAL SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT SO
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO GRIDS.

EXPECT THURSDAY TO REMAIN DRY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAWBLEND
GUIDANCE PERFORMING BEST WITH MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WAS LAGGING BEHIND LOWER LEVELS...WITH QUESTIONABLE
SATURATION THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER. REFINED THE TIMING OF THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL EXPECTATIONS. VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN LIMITED  SATURATION...
WEAK LIFT AND LACK OF MOISTURE. A BACK DOOR TYPE OF FRONT SHOULD
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND BECOME STATIONARY NEAR OR OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND
LIMITED LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. LOWERED HIGHS SUNDAY INTO
THE 50S NORTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THERE WAS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. FAVOR THE GFS WHICH HAS
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN ABOUT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

KSBN EXPECTED TO BE CLEAR INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT SOME MVFR BR
POSSIBLE LATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CROSS OVER TEMPS BEING REACHED.
KFWA REMAINS ON EDGE OF SLOW ERODING STRATUS. MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO CLEARING SKIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTENING LOW LEVELS...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALOFT. THIS COULD TURN INTO REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS BUT
EXPECTING THE DRY AIR ALOFT TO LIMIT FORMATION TO NEAR SURFACE AND
THUS FOG.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221859
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WEAK SYSTEM COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRY AND NEAR AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA IS SLOWLY THINNING
OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS ITS WAY EAST. SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
WEST INTO MISSOURI.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT...EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGH IN THE VICINITY.

GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS WENT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COLDER OF
THE MOS NUMBERS...WHICH PUTS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MOST LOCATIONS.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO FORM OVERNIGHT. WILL GO WITH A
FROST ADVISORY ALL AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FOCUS IS ON ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

THURSDAY WILL START OFF SUNNY WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...BUT AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE
HOW THICK THESE WILL BE AND HOW THEY WILL IMPACT THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE NEAR SUNSET.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS FEEL CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE RAIN ARE PRETTY LOW.

WENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH SPRINKLES MENTIONED FARTHER SOUTH. WENT DRY
FAR SOUTH WITH THAT AREA BEING PRETTY FAR FROM MOST FORCING.

AREA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS CENTRAL INDIANA REMAINS IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS...BUT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED.

WHILE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...FEEL THAT MOISTURE IS LIMITED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY.

LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES...A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD FOR HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS. ON FRIDAY MAV MOS JUST LOOKS
TOO WARM GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS. OTHERWISE
GENERALLY STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PLEASANT FALL WEATHER CONTINUES INTO EARLY WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. EXPECT DRY PLEASANT DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS THROUGH MONDAY. AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
AND DRAW MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE ONLY CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO DO EXPECT SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH 70S IN SOUTHERN
INDIANA POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR MIDWEEK
BUT WITH PREDOMINANT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...ONLY EXPECTING TEMPS TO FALL
BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY.

SOME GROWING HINTS BEYOND THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN ESTABLISHING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLDER BLAST OF AIR
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
IN THE DAYS TO COME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SHALLOW
GROUND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO PULL
SLOWLY AWAY TO THE EAST. STRATOCU HAS PERSISTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE INDY
METRO SO FAR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
AIR. OTHER THAN A FEW STRATOCU AT 2500-3500FT...EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES HOLD TONIGHT WITH DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS...LIKELY TO SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR AT ALL
BUT KIND IN THE 08-14Z TIMEFRAME BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES GO
EVEN LOWER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221704
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN DRY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE
COULD BRING MORE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS PESKY LOW CLOUDS TRY TO ROTATE WEST INTO THE
AREA. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THIS MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
EAST/DISSIPATE SO STILL ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. FOR
THE MOMENT HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THEM AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO LOWER MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONE MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING LOW RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THERE IS NO SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL ACCEPT CONSENSUS POPS OF LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT
MORE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  IT
WON/T BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LOW.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SHALLOW
GROUND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO PULL
SLOWLY AWAY TO THE EAST. STRATOCU HAS PERSISTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE INDY
METRO SO FAR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
AIR. OTHER THAN A FEW STRATOCU AT 2500-3500FT...EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES HOLD TONIGHT WITH DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS...LIKELY TO SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR AT ALL
BUT KIND IN THE 08-14Z TIMEFRAME BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES GO
EVEN LOWER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221704
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
104 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN DRY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE
COULD BRING MORE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS PESKY LOW CLOUDS TRY TO ROTATE WEST INTO THE
AREA. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THIS MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
EAST/DISSIPATE SO STILL ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. FOR
THE MOMENT HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THEM AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO LOWER MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONE MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING LOW RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THERE IS NO SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL ACCEPT CONSENSUS POPS OF LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT
MORE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  IT
WON/T BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LOW.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK IN SHALLOW
GROUND FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO PULL
SLOWLY AWAY TO THE EAST. STRATOCU HAS PERSISTED OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT HAS REMAINED EAST OF THE INDY
METRO SO FAR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH PROGRESSIVELY DRIER
AIR. OTHER THAN A FEW STRATOCU AT 2500-3500FT...EXPECT ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TAKES HOLD TONIGHT WITH DEEP
SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES BUT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS...LIKELY TO SEE SHALLOW GROUND FOG DEVELOP AT THE
OUTLYING TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR AT ALL
BUT KIND IN THE 08-14Z TIMEFRAME BUT COULD SEE VISIBILITIES GO
EVEN LOWER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WINDS
SHIFT TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY THURSDAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN DRY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE
COULD BRING MORE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS PESKY LOW CLOUDS TRY TO ROTATE WEST INTO THE
AREA. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THIS MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
EAST/DISSIPATE SO STILL ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. FOR
THE MOMENT HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THEM AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO LOWER MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONE MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING LOW RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THERE IS NO SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL ACCEPT CONSENSUS POPS OF LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT
MORE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  IT
WON/T BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LOW.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

STRATUS DECK INCHING CLOSER TO INDY METRO FROM THE EAST BUT HAVING
TROUBLE ADVANCING INTO DRIER AIRMASS. MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO
CEILINGS AND WINDS AT KIND FOR REST OF THE DAY...BUT ANTICIPATE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN EAST OF INDY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REAR EDGE OF WRAP-A-ROUND CLOUD DECK ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW
OVER VIRGINIA HAS BACKED SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN INDIANA. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE CLOUD LAYER
BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT BACKING
SW INTO KIND AND KBMG AROUND 221600Z TODAY THEN DISSIPATING BEFORE
SUNSET.

KBMG HAD A BRIEF LAYER OF FOG DRIFT THROUGH OBSERVATION SITE BUT
DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE AROUND BEYOND SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH VEERING
TO EAST TONIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION WILL HAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVE OVER INDIANA TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221344
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN DRY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE
COULD BRING MORE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS PESKY LOW CLOUDS TRY TO ROTATE WEST INTO THE
AREA. AS RIDGING BUILDS IN THIS MORNING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE
EAST/DISSIPATE SO STILL ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE ONLY TWEAKED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. FOR
THE MOMENT HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THEM AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO LOWER MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONE MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING LOW RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THERE IS NO SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL ACCEPT CONSENSUS POPS OF LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT
MORE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  IT
WON/T BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LOW.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

REAR EDGE OF WRAP-A-ROUND CLOUD DECK ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW
OVER VIRGINIA HAS BACKED SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN INDIANA. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE CLOUD LAYER
BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT BACKING
SW INTO KIND AND KBMG AROUND 221600Z TODAY THEN DISSIPATING BEFORE
SUNSET.

KBMG HAD A BRIEF LAYER OF FOG DRIFT THROUGH OBSERVATION SITE BUT
DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE AROUND BEYOND SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH VEERING
TO EAST TONIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION WILL HAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVE OVER INDIANA TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221042
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
642 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN DRY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE
COULD BRING MORE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL KEEP COLD
ADVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AT THAT LEVEL BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL COUNTERACT THAT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO LOWER MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONE MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING LOW RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THERE IS NO SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL ACCEPT CONSENSUS POPS OF LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT
MORE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  IT
WON/T BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LOW.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

REAR EDGE OF WRAP-A-ROUND CLOUD DECK ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW
OVER VIRGINIA HAS BACKED SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN INDIANA. FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE CLOUD LAYER
BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT BACKING
SW INTO KIND AND KBMG AROUND 221600Z TODAY THEN DISSIPATING BEFORE
SUNSET.

KBMG HAD A BRIEF LAYER OF FOG DRIFT THROUGH OBSERVATION SITE BUT
DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE AROUND BEYOND SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH VEERING
TO EAST TONIGHT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER REGION WILL HAVE RIDGE
AXIS MOVE OVER INDIANA TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TUCEK

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN DRY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE
COULD BRING MORE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL KEEP COLD
ADVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AT THAT LEVEL BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL COUNTERACT THAT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO LOWER MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONE MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING LOW RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THERE IS NO SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL ACCEPT CONSENSUS POPS OF LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT
MORE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  IT
WON/T BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LOW.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR SKY COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR AND VFR
STRATOCU SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME
PER SATELLITE TRENDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT FOG AT THE
SMALLER AIRPORTS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WILL LEAVE
IT OUT.

DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME SECTIONS FAVOR JUST
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&


$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOWS TONIGHT DROPPING INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW...CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA...WILL CONTINUE EAST
SOUTHEAST REACHING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AROUND 12Z WEDS AND THEN
FURTHER INTENSIFYING OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE ANY RAIN WILL STAY
AWAY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE PLAINS AND ALLOW
WINDS TO CALM. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE
WITH LOWS DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PATTN BREAKDOWN TO ZONAL FLW ALOFT XPCD THIS PD. SHRT AMPLITUDE
RIDGE ACRS THE MS VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIVE EWD AHD OF EWD
EJECTING SW TROUGH ACRS SRN CANADA WHICH WILL RESULT IN STEADILY
MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH TUE. SFC CDFNT IN ASSOCN/W CANADIAN WAVE
WILL ESSENTIALLY WASH OUT W/EWD EXTEND ON THU AS PARENT WAVE SHEARS
OUT THROUGH JAMES BAY. MSTR RTN NON-EXISTENT AS LL ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS ACRS THE GOMEX AND SUSPECT EVEN SLGT CHC POPS THU NIGHT
WILL BUST.

HWVR NEW SYS ROLLING IN OFF THE EPAC THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO DIG SEWD
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS EARLY NXT WEEK AND THEN EJECT OUT THROUGH THE
SRN LAKES LT TUE. DVLPMNT OF BROAD SWRLY FLW WITHIN RENEWED CONUS
AMPLIFIED PATTN AND DY7 TIMING WOULD PORTEND A RTN TO EQUILIBRIUM
ACRS THE GOMEX WHICH WOULD FOSTER A MORE SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E RTN
INTO THE OH VALLEY. WILL CAUTIOUSLY INCREMENT POPS A BIT HIGHER.

OTRWS TEMPS RTNG TO ABV NORMAL BY FRI AND CONTG THROUGH TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KFWA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
RUC MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS STILL UPSTREAM IN
EASTERN MI TO POSSIBLY ROTATE BACK INTO KFWA OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO WILL KEEP WITH CLEARING. NO
FLIGHT ISSUES AT KSBN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME BEING TRUE
AT KFWA FOR SURE AFTER 15Z WEDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO POSE NO ISSUE. LIGHT NE FLOW WILL PERSIST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...FISHER


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000
FXUS63 KIND 220754
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
354 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN DRY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE
COULD BRING MORE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL KEEP COLD
ADVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AT THAT LEVEL BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL COUNTERACT THAT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO LOWER MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONE MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING LOW RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THERE IS NO SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL ACCEPT CONSENSUS POPS OF LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT
MORE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  IT
WON/T BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LOW.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1241 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR SKY COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR AND VFR
STRATOCU SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME
PER SATELLITE TRENDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT FOG AT THE
SMALLER AIRPORTS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WILL LEAVE
IT OUT.

DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME SECTIONS FAVOR JUST
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
139 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S... WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KFWA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
RUC MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS STILL UPSTREAM IN
EASTERN MI TO POSSIBLY ROTATE BACK INTO KFWA OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO WILL KEEP WITH CLEARING. NO
FLIGHT ISSUES AT KSBN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME BEING TRUE
AT KFWA FOR SURE AFTER 15Z WEDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO POSE NO ISSUE. LIGHT NE FLOW WILL PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
139 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S... WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CIGS HAVE MOVED INTO KFWA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.
RUC MODEL SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS STILL UPSTREAM IN
EASTERN MI TO POSSIBLY ROTATE BACK INTO KFWA OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW
SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE SO WILL KEEP WITH CLEARING. NO
FLIGHT ISSUES AT KSBN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE SAME BEING TRUE
AT KFWA FOR SURE AFTER 15Z WEDS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FAR
ENOUGH AWAY TO POSE NO ISSUE. LIGHT NE FLOW WILL PERSIST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1246 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THUS...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY AS STRATOCUMULUS LINGERS...FURTHER
INHIBITING FROST POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR AS STRATOCUMULUS ERODES. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS MINS ARE REASONABLE...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE CHOSEN TO EXCLUDE A PATCHY FROST MENTION AS
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY UP NEAR 4-5KT...WHICH WILL WORK
AGAINST FROST FORMATION. ADDITIONALLY...MIN TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST FOR FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK UPPER
WAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

FROST IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S. AS SUCH...WILL CARRY PATCHY FROST MENTION WHERE
NECESSARY. MAY NEED A HEADLINE DECISION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY WARM AS THICKNESSES RISE ACROSS THE
AREA. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WERE
ACCEPTABLE ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE
MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1241 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR SKY COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR AND VFR
STRATOCU SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME
PER SATELLITE TRENDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT FOG AT THE
SMALLER AIRPORTS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WILL LEAVE
IT OUT.

DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME SECTIONS FAVOR JUST
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 220446
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1246 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THUS...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY AS STRATOCUMULUS LINGERS...FURTHER
INHIBITING FROST POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR AS STRATOCUMULUS ERODES. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS MINS ARE REASONABLE...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE CHOSEN TO EXCLUDE A PATCHY FROST MENTION AS
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY UP NEAR 4-5KT...WHICH WILL WORK
AGAINST FROST FORMATION. ADDITIONALLY...MIN TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST FOR FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK UPPER
WAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

FROST IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S. AS SUCH...WILL CARRY PATCHY FROST MENTION WHERE
NECESSARY. MAY NEED A HEADLINE DECISION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY WARM AS THICKNESSES RISE ACROSS THE
AREA. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WERE
ACCEPTABLE ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE
MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1241 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR SKY COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR AND VFR
STRATOCU SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME
PER SATELLITE TRENDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT FOG AT THE
SMALLER AIRPORTS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WILL LEAVE
IT OUT.

DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME SECTIONS FAVOR JUST
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 220147
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
947 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THUS...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 943 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY AS STRATOCUMULUS LINGERS...FURTHER
INHIBITING FROST POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES. UPDATED GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR AS STRATOCUMULUS ERODES. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS MINS ARE REASONABLE...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE CHOSEN TO EXCLUDE A PATCHY FROST MENTION AS
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY UP NEAR 4-5KT...WHICH WILL WORK
AGAINST FROST FORMATION. ADDITIONALLY...MIN TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST FOR FROST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK UPPER
WAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

FROST IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S. AS SUCH...WILL CARRY PATCHY FROST MENTION WHERE
NECESSARY. MAY NEED A HEADLINE DECISION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY WARM AS THICKNESSES RISE ACROSS THE
AREA. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WERE
ACCEPTABLE ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE
MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CU DECK SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND OR MOVE EAST AFTER 02Z AS UPPER LOW PEELS AWAY TO THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE CLEAR PER RH TIME
SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/TDUD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 212257
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S... WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NRN EDGE OF STRATO CU DECK MOVG SOUTH/20KT ACROSS SWRN MI SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH KSBN THIS EVE. KFWA WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW DROPPING SE THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES A LITTLE LONGER... BUT SHOULD ALSO LOOSE LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT. THE WRN EDGE OF THIS STRATO CU DECK SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS WEDNESDAY AS LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR FEW-SCT CU AT KFWA BUT DOUBTFUL IF LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
THIS FAR WEST. LIGHT N-NE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 212257
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
657 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S... WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

NRN EDGE OF STRATO CU DECK MOVG SOUTH/20KT ACROSS SWRN MI SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH KSBN THIS EVE. KFWA WILL REMAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW DROPPING SE THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES A LITTLE LONGER... BUT SHOULD ALSO LOOSE LOW CIGS
OVERNIGHT. THE WRN EDGE OF THIS STRATO CU DECK SHOULD MAKE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESS WEDNESDAY AS LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SOME WEAK
LOW LEVEL DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR FEW-SCT CU AT KFWA BUT DOUBTFUL IF LOW CIGS WILL REDEVELOP
THIS FAR WEST. LIGHT N-NE GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


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000
FXUS63 KIND 212228
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
628 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THUS...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR AS STRATOCUMULUS ERODES. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS MINS ARE REASONABLE...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE CHOSEN TO EXCLUDE A PATCHY FROST MENTION AS
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY UP NEAR 4-5KT...WHICH WILL WORK
AGAINST FROST FORMATION. ADDITIONALLY...MIN TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST FOR FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK UPPER
WAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

FROST IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S. AS SUCH...WILL CARRY PATCHY FROST MENTION WHERE
NECESSARY. MAY NEED A HEADLINE DECISION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY WARM AS THICKNESSES RISE ACROSS THE
AREA. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WERE
ACCEPTABLE ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE
MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CU DECK SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND OR MOVE EAST AFTER 02Z AS UPPER LOW PEELS AWAY TO THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD SHOULD BE CLEAR PER RH TIME
SECTIONS AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 212025
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
425 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THUS...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR AS STRATOCUMULUS ERODES. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS MINS ARE REASONABLE...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE CHOSEN TO EXCLUDE A PATCHY FROST MENTION AS
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY UP NEAR 4-5KT...WHICH WILL WORK
AGAINST FROST FORMATION. ADDITIONALLY...MIN TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST FOR FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK UPPER
WAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

FROST IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S. AS SUCH...WILL CARRY PATCHY FROST MENTION WHERE
NECESSARY. MAY NEED A HEADLINE DECISION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY WARM AS THICKNESSES RISE ACROSS THE
AREA. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WERE
ACCEPTABLE ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE
MOISTURE FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 212100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAK TO WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL SEEING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...AND IT/S STILL POSSIBLE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT
KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR
THIS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
ROTATES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211959
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS
SUPPORTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT THIS STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBS
STILL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 3 KFT CEILINGS YET TO GO AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL NOT SCATTER UNTIL AT LEAST
21-00Z. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK THE TRANSITION TO VFR CATEGORY
BY A FEW HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211959
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
359 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LOWS TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA NOW WELL UNDERWAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
MORNING`S SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. REGIONAL
LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY VEERED TO A MORE NNE DIRECTION...
ADVECTING COOL/DRY AIR INTO THE AREA AND LEADING TO AN UNFAVORABLE
TRAJECTORY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN OUR CWA. MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO RISE AS HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH RIDGE
FOLDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED AVA WILL GENERATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF A DECENT SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE GRADUALLY DISSIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS OFF OF HURON IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY SLIM AND WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST.
CAA HAS KEPT A LID ON AFTERNOON TEMPS AND EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
TAKE A SIMILAR DIP. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING IN OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES...WITH A LIGHT NE WIND ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO
THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS LINGER A BIT LONGER IN THE EAST AND WILL
HOLD WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S THERE. GROWING SEASON HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE CWA SO NO HEADLINES WARRANTED. STRATOCU WILL
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN EVEN OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SOME MODERATION OF THERMAL PROFILES DESPITE
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW. INHERITED FORECAST OF MID 50S IS IN LINE WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE AND NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT/DIFFERENTIAL
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE 500/300 MB LAYER WILL BE WANING AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN LIGHT OF THE BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER
WEST AREAS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP SATURATION AND WEAK LIFT PER 305K
ISENTROPIC SURFACE. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ECMWF AND
GFS 850 MB TEMPS 13C TO 16C...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT
LEAST AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY.  THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. GUT FEELING IS RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED TUESDAY GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...FRONTAL LIFT AND UPPER
LEVEL JET SUPPORT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS
SUPPORTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT THIS STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBS
STILL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 3 KFT CEILINGS YET TO GO AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL NOT SCATTER UNTIL AT LEAST
21-00Z. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK THE TRANSITION TO VFR CATEGORY
BY A FEW HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 211850
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WEAK UPPER WAVE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. THUS...DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. A BRIEF WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT EXPECT SKIES TO
CLEAR AS STRATOCUMULUS ERODES. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AND FROST
POTENTIAL AS THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT ISSUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPSTREAM NUMBERS SUGGEST CONSENSUS MINS ARE REASONABLE...IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. HAVE CHOSEN TO EXCLUDE A PATCHY FROST MENTION AS
WINDS APPEAR LIKELY TO STAY UP NEAR 4-5KT...WHICH WILL WORK
AGAINST FROST FORMATION. ADDITIONALLY...MIN TEMPS ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST FOR FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS A WEAK UPPER
WAVE WHICH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO CARRY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...REST OF SHORT TERM
WILL BE DRY AND DOMINATED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

FROST IS A BIT MORE OF A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
APPEAR MORE LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE
MID 30S. AS SUCH...WILL CARRY PATCHY FROST MENTION WHERE
NECESSARY. MAY NEED A HEADLINE DECISION TONIGHT OR TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE EVOLVES.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL BUT GRADUALLY WARM AS THICKNESSES RISE ACROSS THE
AREA. CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEAR TO HAVE THIS WELL IN HAND AND WERE
ACCEPTABLE ASIDE FROM A FEW TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE MOISTURE
FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL SEEING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...AND IT/S STILL POSSIBLE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT
KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR
THIS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
ROTATES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211812
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
212 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. NEXT POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...AT THIS JUNCTURE ENSEMBLE MOISTURE
FIELDS LOOK VERY DRY SO LEFT IN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL SEEING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...AND IT/S STILL POSSIBLE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT
KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR
THIS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
ROTATES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211726
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E FLUX FROM THE GREAT LAKES IS
SUPPORTING HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA AT PRESS TIME.
EXPECT THIS STUBBORN STRATOCU DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE BY LATER
THIS EVENING BUT EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION TO VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPSTREAM OBS
STILL SHOW A LARGE AREA OF 3 KFT CEILINGS YET TO GO AND LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL NOT SCATTER UNTIL AT LEAST
21-00Z. HAVE THEREFORE PUSHED BACK THE TRANSITION TO VFR CATEGORY
BY A FEW HOURS. FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE BUILD OVER THE REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...AGD


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000
FXUS63 KIND 211709
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
109 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1252 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSING THE FORECAST AREA AS ANOTHER
WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL SEEING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA...AND IT/S STILL POSSIBLE
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT
KIND AND KLAF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND HAVE MENTIONED VCSH FOR
THIS WITH NO VIS RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE
ROTATES AWAY TO THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...SMF

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 211426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 211426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 211426
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PUSHED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AS LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS ARE SURVIVING WELL INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. DOUBT THESE WILL
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES...OR MAYBE A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS
AT BEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP/NIELD
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 211408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 211408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 211408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 211408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1008 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FOCUS OF UPDATE IS FOR KIND AND KLAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS AND A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING MORE OF A PUSH SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
ADDED VCSH AT BOTH SITES THROUGH 18-19Z WITH POSSIBILITY FOR
CEILINGS TO DROP TO 2000-2500FT PERIODICALLY AS WELL.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211250
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211250
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211250
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211250
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MIDLEVEL VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE RECEIVING LIGHT...BUT MEASURABLE...
RAINFALL. PRECIP IS BEING FORCED BY MODEST DCVA AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BUT IS ALSO BEING AIDED BY SOME LAKE INDUCED
INSTABILITY OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS BY
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE EXITS AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTH.
LATEST RAP AND HRRR SUPPORT THIS IDEA SO NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AGD
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 211125
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 211125
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 211125
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 211125
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

VFR STRATOCU PROGRESSING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS ANOTHER WAVE ALOFT TRACKS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. SEEING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AS
WELL...AND ITS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY GET FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO BRIEFLY IMPACT KIND AND KLAF LATER THIS MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST IN THE TERMINALS HOWEVER...WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND RH PROGS SUGGEST
CEILINGS FALLING TO AROUND 3500FT FOR BULK OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH
POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR CEILINGS TO BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR AT KLAF.

SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE ROTATES AWAY TO
THE EAST AND A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 10-15KTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
5KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHEAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 211053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 211053
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
653 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY. A SHEARED UPPER
LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO BE
SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS PROVIDING
SOME SYNOPTIC ENHANCEMENT. MAY INCLUDE A TEMPO -SHRA MENTION FOR
KSBN WITH THE 12Z TAFS ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED
2-3K FT CIGS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR STRATOCU TODAY...AND
SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERSPREADS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 210822
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY THE
LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BUT THIS IS ONLY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 5000-6000 FT.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 210822
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY THE
LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT BUT THIS IS ONLY RESULTING IN VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 5000-6000 FT.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 210806
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
406 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY VFR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE OBS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
UPSTREAM...OVERALL TREND DOESN`T LOOK AS GOOD AS BEFORE. HAVE
CLEARED UP TEMPO GROUPS AND STICKING WITH VFR FOR NOW.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH TIME BY LATE AFTERNOON AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE N AND NE AND EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW DIMINISH.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 210806
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
406 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CAROLINAS BY WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES HOLDING UNTIL TONIGHT
IN THE EAST. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014


UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS FLOW BECOMES MORE N AND NE. WHILE SKIES WILL CLEAR
IN WESTERN AREAS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER
LONGER AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE HURON. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY IF NOT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LINGERING INTO TONIGHT ALONG/EAST OF I-69.

AS SKIES CLEAR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
CLEARING IN THE WEST WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH NE
FLOW USHERING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S AND LOWS IN A SIMILAR
RANGE (LOW TO MID 30S). FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WITH END OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL GROWING SEASON NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO THE
EARLY PARTS NEXT WEEK.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PLACE LOCAL AREA INTO
UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRATOCU
PERSISTING ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
BUILDING IN MORE AGGRESSIVELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSING OFF SYSTEM ACROSS
MID ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVIDE
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND A FEW GOOD NIGHTS OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S (POSSIBLY LOWER 30S IN
COOL SPOTS). PER PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SENT
YESTERDAY...FROST/FREZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR LOCAL
AREA DUE TO EFFECTIVE ENDING OF THE GROWING SEASON.

NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THURSDAY WILL BE UPPER PV ANOMALY
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL
DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
ATTENUATE THIS PV ANOMALY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY RESULTING IN WANING UPPER FORCING.
NONETHELESS...ANOTHER NARROW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL PRECEDE
THIS UPPER PV ANOMALY WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS OVERSPREADING THE AREA. NO CHANGE
NEEDED TO PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN SHOWER POPS ACROSS THE WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO
WEAKENING NATURE OF UPPER PV ANOMALY.

UPPER RIDGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET PINCHED OFF FROM AFOREMENTIONED
TWO SYSTEMS...WITH RENEWED MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WORKING INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MARK A MORE DISTINCT WARMING
TREND FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE SOUTHEAST CANADIAN UPPER SHORT WAVE PROVIDING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A BIT SHARPER SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ALTHOUGH STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ABLE TO PUSH
ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHTLY FLATTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD SET UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NEXT BROAD EASTERN PACIFIC WAVE BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY VFR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE OBS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
UPSTREAM...OVERALL TREND DOESN`T LOOK AS GOOD AS BEFORE. HAVE
CLEARED UP TEMPO GROUPS AND STICKING WITH VFR FOR NOW.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH TIME BY LATE AFTERNOON AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE N AND NE AND EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW DIMINISH.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 210753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 210753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 210753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 210753
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST KEEPING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
SMALL SHOWER CHANCES AROUND TODAY BUT THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD IN. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING SMALL SHOWER CHANCES BEFORE MORE STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL FRIDAY
AND THEN WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AND SMALL COVERAGE IF ANY SO KEPT TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING WITH PLACEMENT BASED ON THE HRRR
AND RUC OUTPUT. EXPECT SKIES TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR TEMPERATURES LEANED TOWARD COOLER MET
NUMBERS WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET INTO
THE MID 30S IN PLACES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
UNDER HIGH PRESSURE COULD SEE SOME FROST AROUND THE AREA. FOR NOW
PUT PATCHY FROST ANYWHERE LOWS WOULD GET BELOW 38 AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR ADVISORY POTENTIAL WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 210604
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 210604
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS PERIOD AS ECMWF AND THE GFS BOTH
DEPICT A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE EXITING THE AREA EARLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WILL ACCOMPANY THE RIDGE
ALOFT AND KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIWX 210551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY FORECAST TO
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WHILE EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER WAS STREAMING SE ACROSS
THE AREA...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE MINIMAL. COLDEST AIR WAS
STILL ARRIVING AND ACTIVITY MAY PICK UP BUT GIVEN UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS CAN`T SEE ANYTHING AMOUNTING TO MUCH. AS A RESULT HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO 30 PERCENT AT MOST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER
EXITING OUR OH COUNTIES BY 20/21Z...AND A 90KT UPPER JET DROPPING
SE THROUGH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL AID IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A CLOSED 5H LOW
EVENTUALLY EMERGING OVER WESTERN PA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TRAILING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW/SHEARED VORTICITY WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS AND LIKELY ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
CLOUD DECK TO TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. VEERING
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE MID
TEENS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BRIEFLY TO 6-7 KFT) WARRANT
LOW-MID CHC POPS FOR SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SHEAR THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AS A CUT
OFF LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND KEEPS THE EASTERN CONUS
UNDER MEAN TROUGHING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
LIKELY BE A DRY PASSAGE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA AS THE BETTER
ENERGY REMAINS IN CANADA AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR
KEEP A DRY CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN REACH INTO THE 70S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 14C TO 16C ARE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS ITS ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO BOTH SUPER
TYPHOON VONGFONG AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HUDHUD. A HEMISPHERIC WATER
VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PAST DAY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF HUDHUD PHASING
WITH THE NE PACIFIC LOW WHICH CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF VONGFONG.

WHILE TYPING THIS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DECIDED TO
COMPLICATE THINGS BY COMING IN WITH A SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ATTM WILL IGNORE THIS SOLUTION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND ITS PROPENSITY TO AMPLIFY THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY VFR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE OBS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
UPSTREAM...OVERALL TREND DOESN`T LOOK AS GOOD AS BEFORE. HAVE
CLEARED UP TEMPO GROUPS AND STICKING WITH VFR FOR NOW.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH TIME BY LATE AFTERNOON AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE N AND NE AND EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW DIMINISH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 210551
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY FORECAST TO
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. MODERATING TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WHILE EXTENSIVE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER WAS STREAMING SE ACROSS
THE AREA...SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUITE MINIMAL. COLDEST AIR WAS
STILL ARRIVING AND ACTIVITY MAY PICK UP BUT GIVEN UPSTREAM RADAR
TRENDS CAN`T SEE ANYTHING AMOUNTING TO MUCH. AS A RESULT HAVE
LOWERED POPS TO 30 PERCENT AT MOST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR LINE OF SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER
EXITING OUR OH COUNTIES BY 20/21Z...AND A 90KT UPPER JET DROPPING
SE THROUGH WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROADER MID LEVEL
TROUGH...WILL AID IN TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WITH A CLOSED 5H LOW
EVENTUALLY EMERGING OVER WESTERN PA BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TRAILING MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW/SHEARED VORTICITY WITH LOW LEVEL
THERMAL TROUGH BECOMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPS AND LIKELY ALLOW AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCU
CLOUD DECK TO TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. VEERING
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH LAKE-8H TEMP DIFFERENTIALS PUSHING THE MID
TEENS (LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS BRIEFLY TO 6-7 KFT) WARRANT
LOW-MID CHC POPS FOR SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS TONIGHT-TUESDAY
MORNING. MAINLY DRY OTHERWISE OUTSIDE OF LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS MAINLY OH/SC LOWER MI GIVEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES AND POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SHEAR THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AS A CUT
OFF LOW DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND KEEPS THE EASTERN CONUS
UNDER MEAN TROUGHING FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WILL
LIKELY BE A DRY PASSAGE BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR CWA AS THE BETTER
ENERGY REMAINS IN CANADA AND NORTHERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR
KEEP A DRY CP AIRMASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD BY THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH
SUFFICIENT SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN REACH INTO THE 70S
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 14C TO 16C ARE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO WATCH IN
THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS ITS ORIGINS CAN BE TRACED BACK TO BOTH SUPER
TYPHOON VONGFONG AND TROPICAL CYCLONE HUDHUD. A HEMISPHERIC WATER
VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PAST DAY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF HUDHUD PHASING
WITH THE NE PACIFIC LOW WHICH CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF VONGFONG.

WHILE TYPING THIS DISCUSSION...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS DECIDED TO
COMPLICATE THINGS BY COMING IN WITH A SPLIT FLOW PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN. ATTM WILL IGNORE THIS SOLUTION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED
WESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL ACTIVITY AND ITS PROPENSITY TO AMPLIFY THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 141 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

CIGS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY VFR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
WHILE OBS OCCASIONALLY SHOWING SOME MARGINAL MVFR CIGS
UPSTREAM...OVERALL TREND DOESN`T LOOK AS GOOD AS BEFORE. HAVE
CLEARED UP TEMPO GROUPS AND STICKING WITH VFR FOR NOW.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH TIME BY LATE AFTERNOON AS NW FLOW
BECOMES MORE N AND NE AND EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW DIMINISH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FISHER
SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...BENTLEY
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 210444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1244 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP

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000
FXUS63 KIND 210444
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1244 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

IN THE WAKE OF A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND BECOME THE DOMINANT FORCE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. AFTER COOL CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

STILL A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
ZONES...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

OTHERWISE...RATHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES. APPEARS THESE CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE SOUTHWEST ZONES...LATER TONIGHT.
WILL GO A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE SKY COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

REST OF FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION HAVE EXITED THE AREA...AND THUS
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE
WANTS TO HINT AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA...BUT AMPLE
DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD WORK AGAINST THIS.

TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S
TONIGHT...WHICH PUTS THE MODEL BLEND WELL IN LINE WITH UPSTREAM
MINS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

NARROW BUT STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FORCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...AND WILL GO WITH A
DRY FORECAST THROUGHOUT AS A RESULT. THIS LEAVES TEMPERATURES AS
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ELEMENT.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH
A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND AS HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE AREA.
CONSENSUS NUMBERS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS REASONABLY WELL.

MIN TEMPS COULD BRING FROST INTO PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS...BUT TEMPS FOR FROST ARE BORDERLINE
AT BEST AND MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PRODUCING DRY WEATHER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION. NEXT
POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1243 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LAF AND IND
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME
LAKE EFFECT SC THAT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY SHOULD SWEEP BY
THE LAF AND IND TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS.

BY TUESDAY MORNING MORE DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN CENTRAL
INDIANA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE FLAT TOPPED CU
DEVELOPMENT WITH A 825MB INVERSION IN PLACE. AFTER DIURNAL HEATING
IS LOST ON TOWARD 00Z WED...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS VFR
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/JAS
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






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