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000
FXUS63 KIND 230251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1051 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

BASED ON EVENING CONVECTIVE/RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE...HAVE
PUSHED POPS BACK SEVERAL HOURS AND LOWERED THEM. STRONGEST
CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
WHERE DYNAMICS ARE STRONGER. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND
ENOUGH TO IMPACT NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT
THIS IS FAR FROM CERTAIN. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONT PASSES AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO LOW
PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION.

QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT LAF/HUF. EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THESE STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN...AND WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH AT
IND/BMG VS. VCTS AT THE OTHER TWO SITES.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
IN ITS WAKE TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/NIELD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




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000
FXUS63 KIWX 222332
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
732 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW WHILE
EARLIER MCS DISSIPATING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NEW
CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH UPPER JET WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS
DETACHMENT OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTION
MAINTAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE NW CWA AS DECENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CAPES
AROUND 1500J/KG...SO IF CONVECTION IN IOWA IS ABLE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...HOWEVER FORMING RIGHT ALONG THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST LINGERING
CHANCES IN THE FAR SE CWA...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR THE SE HALF WITH LOWS AROUND 70 WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S NW. COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COMFORTABLE/FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS THROUGH. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL WNW
REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT TO WORK ENE INTO
THE REGION. LEAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING
FRONT SUPPORT INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS
TIME...MAINLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

RE-AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT ON LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WX LIKELY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT IS IF CONVECTION WILL FIRE ALONG APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AND IF SO...HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BE. LATEST SATELLITE
AND RADAR COMPOSITES SHOWING LINE TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WISCONSIN WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS IL. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS IDEA OF TAFS INTACT BUT DID ADD A
VCTS TO KSBN GIVEN LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE HANDLING OF CURRENT
WEATHER WITH INDICATION OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY.
QUESTIONS REMAIN ON WHETHER ANY ACTIVITY WILL REACH KFWA AND IMPACT
OPERATIONS. HAVE KEPT MVFR CIG THERE WITH STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT
ALONG FRONT BUT OPTED TO KEEP PCPN OUT OF FORECAST UNTIL WE SEE
HOW DEVELOPMENT OCCURS NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR WEDNESDAY POST FRONTAL
WITH NW WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 3 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...OBERGFELL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 222312
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONT PASSES AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO LOW
PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION.

QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT LAF/HUF. EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THESE STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN...AND WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH AT
IND/BMG VS. VCTS AT THE OTHER TWO SITES.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
IN ITS WAKE TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 222312
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONT PASSES AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO LOW
PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION.

QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT LAF/HUF. EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THESE STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN...AND WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH AT
IND/BMG VS. VCTS AT THE OTHER TWO SITES.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
IN ITS WAKE TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 222312
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONT PASSES AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO LOW
PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION.

QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT LAF/HUF. EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THESE STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN...AND WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH AT
IND/BMG VS. VCTS AT THE OTHER TWO SITES.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
IN ITS WAKE TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 222312
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 23/00Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS FRONT PASSES AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH...BUT AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO LOW
PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAIN FOR INCLUSION.

QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AT LAF/HUF. EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THESE STORMS IS MORE UNCERTAIN...AND WILL ONLY CARRY VCSH AT
IND/BMG VS. VCTS AT THE OTHER TWO SITES.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AND WINDS WILL SWING TO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH
IN ITS WAKE TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND
SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 222010
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

INCREASED WIND SPEED A BIT IN THE INITIAL PERIOD. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST FINE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THESE ARE UNCERTAIN AND IF THEY DO OCCUR WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SQUEEZE THEM INTO THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.  THESE IN TURN
WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 222010
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/21Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

INCREASED WIND SPEED A BIT IN THE INITIAL PERIOD. OTHERWISE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST FINE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THESE ARE UNCERTAIN AND IF THEY DO OCCUR WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SQUEEZE THEM INTO THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.  THESE IN TURN
WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...JK/NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 221906
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH STORM
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW WHILE
EARLIER MCS DISSIPATING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NEW
CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH UPPER JET WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS
DETACHMENT OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTION
MAINTAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE NW CWA AS DECENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CAPES
AROUND 1500J/KG...SO IF CONVECTION IN IOWA IS ABLE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...HOWEVER FORMING RIGHT ALONG THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST LINGERING
CHANCES IN THE FAR SE CWA...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR THE SE HALF WITH LOWS AROUND 70 WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S NW. COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COMFORTABLE/FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS THROUGH. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL WNW
REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT TO WORK ENE INTO
THE REGION. LEAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING
FRONT SUPPORT INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS
TIME...MAINLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

RE-AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT ON LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WX LIKELY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DAYTIME MIXING HAS WINDS STARTING TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER GRADIENT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CARRY A G22 AT
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTION AT KFWA. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SH/TSRA INTO THE AREA...BETTER INSTABILITY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT IN NW
CWA SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO AT KSBN BUT LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT COULD MAKE
FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG GRADIENT AS WELL
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221906
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH STORM
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW WHILE
EARLIER MCS DISSIPATING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NEW
CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH UPPER JET WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS
DETACHMENT OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTION
MAINTAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE NW CWA AS DECENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CAPES
AROUND 1500J/KG...SO IF CONVECTION IN IOWA IS ABLE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...HOWEVER FORMING RIGHT ALONG THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST LINGERING
CHANCES IN THE FAR SE CWA...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR THE SE HALF WITH LOWS AROUND 70 WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S NW. COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COMFORTABLE/FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS THROUGH. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL WNW
REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT TO WORK ENE INTO
THE REGION. LEAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING
FRONT SUPPORT INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS
TIME...MAINLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

RE-AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT ON LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WX LIKELY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DAYTIME MIXING HAS WINDS STARTING TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER GRADIENT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CARRY A G22 AT
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTION AT KFWA. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SH/TSRA INTO THE AREA...BETTER INSTABILITY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT IN NW
CWA SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO AT KSBN BUT LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT COULD MAKE
FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG GRADIENT AS WELL
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221906
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH STORM
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW WHILE
EARLIER MCS DISSIPATING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NEW
CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH UPPER JET WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS
DETACHMENT OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTION
MAINTAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE NW CWA AS DECENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CAPES
AROUND 1500J/KG...SO IF CONVECTION IN IOWA IS ABLE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...HOWEVER FORMING RIGHT ALONG THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST LINGERING
CHANCES IN THE FAR SE CWA...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR THE SE HALF WITH LOWS AROUND 70 WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S NW. COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COMFORTABLE/FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS THROUGH. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL WNW
REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT TO WORK ENE INTO
THE REGION. LEAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING
FRONT SUPPORT INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS
TIME...MAINLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

RE-AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT ON LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WX LIKELY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DAYTIME MIXING HAS WINDS STARTING TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER GRADIENT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CARRY A G22 AT
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTION AT KFWA. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SH/TSRA INTO THE AREA...BETTER INSTABILITY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT IN NW
CWA SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO AT KSBN BUT LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT COULD MAKE
FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG GRADIENT AS WELL
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 221906
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH STORM
CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

REGIONAL RADARS SHOWING ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW WHILE
EARLIER MCS DISSIPATING OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH NEW
CELLS STARTING TO FORM OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH UPPER JET WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS
DETACHMENT OF UPPER FORCING WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR CONVECTION
MAINTAINING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE NW CWA AS DECENT MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY...CAPES
AROUND 1500J/KG...SO IF CONVECTION IN IOWA IS ABLE TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX...HOWEVER FORMING RIGHT ALONG THICKNESS RIDGE WILL HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN ITS FORWARD PROPAGATION. FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH JUST LINGERING
CHANCES IN THE FAR SE CWA...TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA BY AFTERNOON. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
FOR THE SE HALF WITH LOWS AROUND 70 WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 60S NW. COOLER AND LESS HUMID FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

COMFORTABLE/FAIR WX WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS STABLE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS THROUGH. MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION TO A FLATTER/SEMI-ZONAL WNW
REGIME BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WINDS
VEER MORE SOUTHERLY ALLOWING AN ACTIVE WARM FRONT TO WORK ENE INTO
THE REGION. LEAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND INCREASING MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DEVELOPING
FRONT SUPPORT INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS
TIME...MAINLY LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

RE-AMPLIFICATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH REMAINS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL
IN MODEL GUIDANCE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT ON LEADING
EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS MAY SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY DEPENDING ON TIMING. UNSEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY WX LIKELY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DAYTIME MIXING HAS WINDS STARTING TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER GRADIENT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CARRY A G22 AT
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTION AT KFWA. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SH/TSRA INTO THE AREA...BETTER INSTABILITY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT IN NW
CWA SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO AT KSBN BUT LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT COULD MAKE
FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG GRADIENT AS WELL
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...JAL
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221855
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THESE ARE UNCERTAIN AND IF THEY DO OCCUR WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SQUEEZE THEM INTO THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.  THESE IN TURN
WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221855
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE CURRENT UPPER RIDGE BRIDGING FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD. A SERIES OF MINOR LOW PRESSURE
TROUGHS TOP THE REBUILDING WESTERN US RIDGE TO REDEVELOP THE
EASTERN TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS A RETURN TO COOLER AND LESS
HUMID WEATHER.

AN INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY RESORT LIKE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TOPPING THE RIDGE WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OR
TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER DRY-OUT AND COOL DOWN WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ISSUE OF CONCERN IS STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. CURRENT WARM CAP ALOFT
MAY HELP INHIBIT WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS EVENING OUT WEST.
COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT STORM ARRIVAL AND STABILIZING TEMPS AND
STRONGEST FORCING REMAINING IN THE GREAT LAKES...EXPECT
DIMINISHING LINE OF STORMS/SHOWERS TO MOVE TO NEAR I-70 BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO CLIMB TO THE LOWER 70S AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 EXCEPT WHERE ANY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS DROP MINS TO UPPER 60S. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS UNCERTAIN BUT
LOCAL HALF INCH DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTINESS WITH THESE STRONGER STORMS
BUT THESE SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 226 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEDNESDAY...ISSUE IS HOW LONG RAIN THREAT LINGERS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO
BLEND FOR GOOD FORECAST.

INITIAL THRUST OF CONVECTION SHOULD SAG SLOWLY SOUTH DURING
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST OF A TERRE HAUTE TO MUNCIE LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
ALREADY SEEN RAIN THREAT ENDED. SOUTH OF THERE...MORNING HEATING
WILL RENEW STORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
GREATEST GROWTH IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS
WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. STILL ENOUGH
ENERGY TO BUILD THAT LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR IN
OUR SOUTHERN MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
NO ISSUES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DROPS DEWPOINTS BACK TO LOWER 50S...MIN TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 50S...AND MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DROPPED TO THE OHIO RIVER BEGINS
GETTING PULLED BACK NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE PLAINS
BRINGING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY BUT NO STORMS BEFORE
FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THESE ARE UNCERTAIN AND IF THEY DO OCCUR WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SQUEEZE THEM INTO THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.  THESE IN TURN
WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221737
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEAK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.



&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THESE ARE UNCERTAIN AND IF THEY DO OCCUR WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SQUEEZE THEM INTO THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.  THESE IN TURN
WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221737
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
137 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEAK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THERE IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THE
REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

UNUSUALLY LARGE STRONG WEATHER PATTERNS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
GOING TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SUCH WELL DEFINED SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY EASY FOR THE MODELS TO FORECAST. GIVEN THEIR FORECASTS
ARE CLOSE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THEY WILL WORK OUT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THAN AT OTHER TIMES.  THE REASON IS A FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA...AND EVEN MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING COULD HAVE A BIG
EFFECT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.



&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THESE ARE UNCERTAIN AND IF THEY DO OCCUR WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SQUEEZE THEM INTO THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.  THESE IN TURN
WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JK
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 221724
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
124 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO BEING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHRTWV OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO
SRN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG TO WRN MI/NW IL BY
THIS EVE. PLUME OF >20C H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IA/NRN IL/SRN WI AND SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
AREA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEARLY FULL INSOLATION
COMBINED WITH INCREASED SWLY GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IN OUR AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS AT OR A BIT ABOVE MOS TEMPS... IN THE L90S.

UPR TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AS ROCKIES RIDGE
AMPLIFIES. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPR LEVEL
TROF MAY ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THE
OTHER HAND... THE LLJ WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A
MECHANISM TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. THUS...
HIGHEST POPS MAINTAINED OVER NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR IN THIS AREA
WHICH WOULD AID STORM/UPDRAFT LONGEVITY/STRENGTH SHOULD DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOP... SO SVR STORM PSBL. CAA FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE M60S NW BY DAYBREAK WHILE SE LIKELY
ONLY FALLS TO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE
HIGH RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO REASONABLY
HANDLE THE COLD START CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION STILL PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD FOR STORMS TO FORM. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700/500 WILL BE NEAR 8C/KM...BUT THIS AREA
WHICH INCLUDES ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE HARD TO TAP GIVEN VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS BELOW THIS LAYER. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY
INCLUDING CUTTING TEMPS 5 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD AIR
INTRUSION WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND GIVEN THE CANADIAN EPS GRAMS
WITH THE MEAN ENSEMBLE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AT FORT WAYNE AROUND 54
DEGREES...FEEL THE GFS/MEX VALUES ARE IN THE PARK. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THIS PERIOD AS THE ONGOING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS APPEARS ON
TRACK IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GFS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014


DAYTIME MIXING HAS WINDS STARTING TO GUST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
BETTER GRADIENT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CARRY A G22 AT
KSBN THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MENTION AT KFWA. COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THIS EVENING AND MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT WILL A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SH/TSRA INTO THE AREA...BETTER INSTABILITY TO ACCOMPANY FRONT IN NW
CWA SO WILL HAVE A TEMPO AT KSBN BUT LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR NOW. AMPLE LOW LEVEL  MOISTURE BEHIND FRONT COULD MAKE
FOR MVFR CIGS EARLY MORNING ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG GRADIENT AS WELL
WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JAL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 221646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1246 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEAK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THESE ARE UNCERTAIN AND IF THEY DO OCCUR WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SQUEEZE THEM INTO THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.  THESE IN TURN
WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 221646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1246 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEAK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT PASSES.
THESE ARE UNCERTAIN AND IF THEY DO OCCUR WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION.
IT IS PREMATURE TO SQUEEZE THEM INTO THE TAFS.

OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND FEET THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING.  THESE IN TURN
WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35 HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS AS THEY VEER FROM
SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST
TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 221610
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1210 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEAK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND
FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
EVENING.  THESE IN TURN WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35
HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS
AS THEY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO
NORTH OR NORTHWEST TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 221610
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1210 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEAK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PASSES. THERE IS MAJOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE STORMS WILL BE COMMON ENOUGH IN THE
NORTH TO CALL FOR VCTS AT KLAF. TO THE SOUTH THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDER ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION ANYTHING
IN THE TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE WITH UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 5 THOUSAND
FEET THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE REPLACED BY MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
EVENING.  THESE IN TURN WILL BE REPLACED BY CEILINGS AROUND 35
HUNDRED FEET LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS
AS THEY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TODAY...TO WEST TONIGHT...AND THEN TO
NORTH OR NORTHWEST TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 221505
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1105 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY DUE TO BEING ON THE
BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHRTWV OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO
SRN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG TO WRN MI/NW IL BY
THIS EVE. PLUME OF >20C H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IA/NRN IL/SRN WI AND SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
AREA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEARLY FULL INSOLATION
COMBINED WITH INCREASED SWLY GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IN OUR AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS AT OR A BIT ABOVE MOS TEMPS... IN THE L90S.

UPR TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AS ROCKIES RIDGE
AMPLIFIES. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPR LEVEL
TROF MAY ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THE
OTHER HAND... THE LLJ WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A
MECHANISM TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. THUS...
HIGHEST POPS MAINTAINED OVER NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR IN THIS AREA
WHICH WOULD AID STORM/UPDRAFT LONGEVITY/STRENGTH SHOULD DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOP... SO SVR STORM PSBL. CAA FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE M60S NW BY DAYBREAK WHILE SE LIKELY
ONLY FALLS TO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE
HIGH RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO REASONABLY
HANDLE THE COLD START CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION STILL PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD FOR STORMS TO FORM. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700/500 WILL BE NEAR 8C/KM...BUT THIS AREA
WHICH INCLUDES ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE HARD TO TAP GIVEN VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS BELOW THIS LAYER. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY
INCLUDING CUTTING TEMPS 5 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD AIR
INTRUSION WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND GIVEN THE CANADIAN EPS GRAMS
WITH THE MEAN ENSEMBLE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AT FORT WAYNE AROUND 54
DEGREES...FEEL THE GFS/MEX VALUES ARE IN THE PARK. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THIS PERIOD AS THE ONGOING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS APPEARS ON
TRACK IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GFS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE OR NO CU TODAY.
CDFNT OVER IA/NEB ATTM WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT...
PSBLY ACCOMPANIED BY TSRA WITH THE BEST CHC AT SBN WHERE MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED... WHILE AT FWA RISK STILL SEEMS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS. MODEST SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... SHIFTING TO NW LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEAK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THUS THE TAFS INCLUDE VCSH AT KLAF FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 04Z BUT NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 221428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1028 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEAK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 211500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1029 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.

ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THUS THE TAFS INCLUDE VCSH AT KLAF FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER 04Z BUT NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...JK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221338
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEEK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...EXPECT BULK OF FOG TO BE
GONE BY 12Z. KEPT SOME MVFR FOR AN HOUR AT KLAF/KBMG.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT KLAF FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 04Z AND LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 221338
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEEK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...EXPECT BULK OF FOG TO BE
GONE BY 12Z. KEPT SOME MVFR FOR AN HOUR AT KLAF/KBMG.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT KLAF FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 04Z AND LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221338
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEEK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...EXPECT BULK OF FOG TO BE
GONE BY 12Z. KEPT SOME MVFR FOR AN HOUR AT KLAF/KBMG.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT KLAF FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 04Z AND LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 221338
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO FIRST FEW HOURS BUT REMAINING PORTION OF THE
DAY APPEARS ON TRACK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR INDY TEMPS TO SEE IF
WE MIGHT NOT SQUEEK OUT A MAX TEMP ABOVE 87F WE CURRENTLY PROJECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...EXPECT BULK OF FOG TO BE
GONE BY 12Z. KEPT SOME MVFR FOR AN HOUR AT KLAF/KBMG.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT KLAF FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 04Z AND LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 221046
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S
WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHRTWV OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO
SRN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG TO WRN MI/NW IL BY
THIS EVE. PLUME OF >20C H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IA/NRN IL/SRN WI AND SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
AREA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEARLY FULL INSOLATION
COMBINED WITH INCREASED SWLY GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IN OUR AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS AT OR A BIT ABOVE MOS TEMPS... IN THE L90S.

UPR TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AS ROCKIES RIDGE
AMPLIFIES. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPR LEVEL
TROF MAY ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THE
OTHER HAND... THE LLJ WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A
MECHANISM TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. THUS...
HIGHEST POPS MAINTAINED OVER NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR IN THIS AREA
WHICH WOULD AID STORM/UPDRAFT LONGEVITY/STRENGTH SHOULD DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOP... SO SVR STORM PSBL. CAA FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE M60S NW BY DAYBREAK WHILE SE LIKELY
ONLY FALLS TO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE
HIGH RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO REASONABLY
HANDLE THE COLD START CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION STILL PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD FOR STORMS TO FORM. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700/500 WILL BE NEAR 8C/KM...BUT THIS AREA
WHICH INCLUDES ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE HARD TO TAP GIVEN VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS BELOW THIS LAYER. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY
INCLUDING CUTTING TEMPS 5 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD AIR
INTRUSION WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND GIVEN THE CANADIAN EPS GRAMS
WITH THE MEAN ENSEMBLE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AT FORT WAYNE AROUND 54
DEGREES...FEEL THE GFS/MEX VALUES ARE IN THE PARK. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THIS PERIOD AS THE ONGOING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS APPEARS ON
TRACK IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GFS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WARM/DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPR LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE OR NO CU TODAY.
CDFNT OVER IA/NEB ATTM WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA LATE TONIGHT...
PSBLY ACCOMPANIED BY TSRA WITH THE BEST CHC AT SBN WHERE MORE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED... WHILE AT FWA RISK STILL SEEMS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAFS. MODEST SW WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT... SHIFTING TO NW LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 221030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR FAILED TO SHOW ANY
CLOUDS IN THE HOOSIER STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MOIST
MIDDLE 60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRETCHING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THUS IT WILL BE HARD TO PRODUCE MUCH CU
OR CLOUDS TODAY TO HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-19C. MAVMOS CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A THERMAL AXIS ALOFT...NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MAVMOS AT MOST SPOTS...PARTICULARLY AT IND WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
COOLER. LOOK FOR WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...EXPECT BULK OF FOG TO BE
GONE BY 12Z. KEPT SOME MVFR FOR AN HOUR AT KLAF/KBMG.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT KLAF FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 04Z AND LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 221030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR FAILED TO SHOW ANY
CLOUDS IN THE HOOSIER STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MOIST
MIDDLE 60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRETCHING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THUS IT WILL BE HARD TO PRODUCE MUCH CU
OR CLOUDS TODAY TO HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-19C. MAVMOS CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A THERMAL AXIS ALOFT...NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MAVMOS AT MOST SPOTS...PARTICULARLY AT IND WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
COOLER. LOOK FOR WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 221200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

BASED ON SIMILAR CONDITIONS YESTERDAY...EXPECT BULK OF FOG TO BE
GONE BY 12Z. KEPT SOME MVFR FOR AN HOUR AT KLAF/KBMG.

OTHERWISE EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ANY
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. THUS HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT KLAF FOR A FEW HOURS
AFTER 04Z AND LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW ELSEWHERE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIWX 220838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHRTWV OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO
SRN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG TO WRN MI/NW IL BY
THIS EVE. PLUME OF >20C H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IA/NRN IL/SRN WI AND SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
AREA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEARLY FULL INSOLATION
COMBINED WITH INCREASED SWLY GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IN OUR AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS AT OR A BIT ABOVE MOS TEMPS... IN THE L90S.

UPR TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AS ROCKIES RIDGE
AMPLIFIES. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPR LEVEL
TROF MAY ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THE
OTHER HAND... THE LLJ WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A
MECHANISM TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. THUS...
HIGHEST POPS MAINTAINED OVER NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR IN THIS AREA
WHICH WOULD AID STORM/UPDRAFT LONGEVITY/STRENGTH SHOULD DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOP... SO SVR STORM PSBL. CAA FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE M60S NW BY DAYBREAK WHILE SE LIKELY
ONLY FALLS TO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE
HIGH RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO REASONABLY
HANDLE THE COLD START CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION STILL PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD FOR STORMS TO FORM. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700/500 WILL BE NEAR 8C/KM...BUT THIS AREA
WHICH INCLUDES ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE HARD TO TAP GIVEN VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS BELOW THIS LAYER. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY
INCLUDING CUTTING TEMPS 5 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD AIR
INTRUSION WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND GIVEN THE CANADIAN EPS GRAMS
WITH THE MEAN ENSEMBLE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AT FORT WAYNE AROUND 54
DEGREES...FEEL THE GFS/MEX VALUES ARE IN THE PARK. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THIS PERIOD AS THE ONGOING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS APPEARS ON
TRACK IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GFS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 135 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS/CLR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING BR BY MORNING... BUT VSBYS EXPECTED TO ONLY BRIEFLY FALL TO
MVFR AT WORST AT THE TERMINALS. S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY AS A CDFNT CURRENTLY OVER MN-SD MOVES E-SE. MID-UPR LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT TODAY RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. RESIDUAL WARM MID-UPR LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DESPITE
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA... SO
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ADDING TSRA TO TAFS ATTM FOR THIS EVE... THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 220838
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
438 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY... POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S AND
LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SHRTWV OVER NRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE INTO
SRN ONTARIO TODAY WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVG TO WRN MI/NW IL BY
THIS EVE. PLUME OF >20C H85 TEMPS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO OUR CWA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT TODAY AS IT MOVES ACROSS
IA/NRN IL/SRN WI AND SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
AREA ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE NEARLY FULL INSOLATION
COMBINED WITH INCREASED SWLY GRADIENT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY DEEP MIXING IN OUR AREA TODAY RESULTING IN
HIGHS AT OR A BIT ABOVE MOS TEMPS... IN THE L90S.

UPR TROF WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GRTLKS TONIGHT AS ROCKIES RIDGE
AMPLIFIES. DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED
WITH GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPR LEVEL
TROF MAY ALLOW TSTMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. ON THE
OTHER HAND... THE LLJ WILL SHIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH OVERNIGHT SO A
MECHANISM TO MAINTAIN INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. THUS...
HIGHEST POPS MAINTAINED OVER NWRN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
LINGERING MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AS FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST 30-40KT 0-6KM SHEAR IN THIS AREA
WHICH WOULD AID STORM/UPDRAFT LONGEVITY/STRENGTH SHOULD DEEP
CONVECTION DEVELOP... SO SVR STORM PSBL. CAA FOLLOWING THE FRONT
SHOULD DROP TEMPS INTO THE M60S NW BY DAYBREAK WHILE SE LIKELY
ONLY FALLS TO THE L70S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE
HIGH RES/CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO REASONABLY
HANDLE THE COLD START CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL
LOW LEVEL INVERSION STILL PRESENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD FOR STORMS TO FORM. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700/500 WILL BE NEAR 8C/KM...BUT THIS AREA
WHICH INCLUDES ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE HARD TO TAP GIVEN VERY STABLE
CONDITIONS BELOW THIS LAYER. THEREFORE...HAVE LOWERED STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.
COOL CONDITIONS RETURN AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWERED TEMPS CONSIDERABLY
INCLUDING CUTTING TEMPS 5 DEGREES OVER MOST AREAS...AND AROUND 10
DEGREES OVER NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD AIR
INTRUSION WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...AND GIVEN THE CANADIAN EPS GRAMS
WITH THE MEAN ENSEMBLE LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT AT FORT WAYNE AROUND 54
DEGREES...FEEL THE GFS/MEX VALUES ARE IN THE PARK. OTHERWISE...THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. MADE FEW CHANGES
TO THIS PERIOD AS THE ONGOING TIMING OF THIS SYSTEMS APPEARS ON
TRACK IN LIGHT OF THE LATEST GFS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 135 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS/CLR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING BR BY MORNING... BUT VSBYS EXPECTED TO ONLY BRIEFLY FALL TO
MVFR AT WORST AT THE TERMINALS. S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY AS A CDFNT CURRENTLY OVER MN-SD MOVES E-SE. MID-UPR LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT TODAY RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. RESIDUAL WARM MID-UPR LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DESPITE
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA... SO
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ADDING TSRA TO TAFS ATTM FOR THIS EVE... THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 220827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR FAILED TO SHOW ANY
CLOUDS IN THE HOOSIER STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MOIST
MIDDLE 60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRETCHING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THUS IT WILL BE HARD TO PRODUCE MUCH CU
OR CLOUDS TODAY TO HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-19C. MAVMOS CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A THERMAL AXIS ALOFT...NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MAVMOS AT MOST SPOTS...PARTICULARLY AT IND WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
COOLER. LOOK FOR WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

STILL THINK SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KIND...SO NO CHANGES MADE
TO TAF. IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE AT THE OTHER SITES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES AGAIN AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
THIS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 5
KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 220827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR FAILED TO SHOW ANY
CLOUDS IN THE HOOSIER STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MOIST
MIDDLE 60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRETCHING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THUS IT WILL BE HARD TO PRODUCE MUCH CU
OR CLOUDS TODAY TO HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-19C. MAVMOS CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A THERMAL AXIS ALOFT...NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MAVMOS AT MOST SPOTS...PARTICULARLY AT IND WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
COOLER. LOOK FOR WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

STILL THINK SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP AT KIND...SO NO CHANGES MADE
TO TAF. IFR FOG WILL CONTINUE AT THE OTHER SITES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES AGAIN AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
THIS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 5
KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR FAILED TO SHOW ANY
CLOUDS IN THE HOOSIER STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MOIST
MIDDLE 60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRETCHING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THUS IT WILL BE HARD TO PRODUCE MUCH CU
OR CLOUDS TODAY TO HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-19C. MAVMOS CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A THERMAL AXIS ALOFT...NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MAVMOS AT MOST SPOTS...PARTICULARLY AT IND WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
COOLER. LOOK FOR WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES AGAIN AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
THIS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 5
KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR FAILED TO SHOW ANY
CLOUDS IN THE HOOSIER STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MOIST
MIDDLE 60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRETCHING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THUS IT WILL BE HARD TO PRODUCE MUCH CU
OR CLOUDS TODAY TO HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-19C. MAVMOS CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A THERMAL AXIS ALOFT...NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MAVMOS AT MOST SPOTS...PARTICULARLY AT IND WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
COOLER. LOOK FOR WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES AGAIN AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
THIS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 5
KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR FAILED TO SHOW ANY
CLOUDS IN THE HOOSIER STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MOIST
MIDDLE 60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRETCHING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THUS IT WILL BE HARD TO PRODUCE MUCH CU
OR CLOUDS TODAY TO HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-19C. MAVMOS CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A THERMAL AXIS ALOFT...NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MAVMOS AT MOST SPOTS...PARTICULARLY AT IND WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
COOLER. LOOK FOR WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES AGAIN AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
THIS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 5
KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220658
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR FAILED TO SHOW ANY
CLOUDS IN THE HOOSIER STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MOIST
MIDDLE 60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRETCHING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THUS IT WILL BE HARD TO PRODUCE MUCH CU
OR CLOUDS TODAY TO HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-19C. MAVMOS CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A THERMAL AXIS ALOFT...NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MAVMOS AT MOST SPOTS...PARTICULARLY AT IND WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
COOLER. LOOK FOR WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST PARAMETERS.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND
STALL OUT THIS WEEKEND. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IN WHICH PERIOD WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR RAIN IS LOW
SINCE TIMING OF THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE IS UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.
WILL KEEP ALLBLEND/S CHANCE POPS.

FOR MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS COMING MONDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES AGAIN AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
THIS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 5
KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220604
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

A WARM...SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF
INDIANA PROVIDES WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY. TONIGHT A QUICK MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH CENTRAL INDIANA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN TO CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A RETURN TO COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES. LIGHT...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WAS
IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. IR FAILED TO SHOW ANY
CLOUDS IN THE HOOSIER STATE. DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE MOIST
MIDDLE 60S...AND SOME PATCHY FOG WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE TEMPS. GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A
RIDGE AXIS ALOFT STRETCHING FROM BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL PIVOT ACROSS INDIANA TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT PROVIDE GOOD SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S. THUS IT WILL BE HARD TO PRODUCE MUCH CU
OR CLOUDS TODAY TO HAMPER TEMPERATURE RISES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW 850MB TEMPS AROUND 18C-19C. MAVMOS CONTINUES TO RUN TOO WARM.
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A THERMAL AXIS ALOFT...NORTHWEST OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. GIVEN THIS WILL TREND TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES COOLER THAN
MAVMOS AT MOST SPOTS...PARTICULARLY AT IND WHICH HAS BEEN RUNNING
COOLER. LOOK FOR WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO KEEP A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A CONTINUED LEE
SIDE FLOW FROM THE NORTHWEST SPILLING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
INDIANA. TONIGHT...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SHORT WAVES SLIDES
DOWN THE FROM THE MIDWEST...WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS A FORCING
FLOWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MICHIGAN. AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE AND PASS ACROSS
INDIANA...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. ESSENTIALLY THE TAIL OF THIS COLD
FRONT IS WHAT IS LEFT AS IT PASSES ACROSS INDIANA...PROVIDING VERY
LIMITED FORCING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FAIL
TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION OVERNIGHT. GFS 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE
SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES PUSHING ACROSS THE
STATE...OVER 9 G/KG. HOWEVER NO UPGLIDE IS PRESENT. LOWER LEVEL Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS VERY GOOD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE
FRONT PASSES TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LLJ REMAINS WEAK...WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 20-25 KNTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR A
SOAKING RAIN...ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WILL USE SOME LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN AT LEAST THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER WILL TREND LOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE THEN TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A DRY COLUMN. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA...DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...BRINGING A COOLER AND DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS TO OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AT LEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON THURSDAY
SUGGEST ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WITH A MID LEVEL
INVERSION...ONCE AGAIN SUGGEST SOME HARMLESS...LOW-TOPPED FLAT CU
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION IN
PLACE ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL TREND HIGHS AND LOWS
COOLER THAN MAVMOS. NORTHERLY SURFACE SLOW CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS PATTERN WILL WORK A BLEND OF THE MAVMOS
AND METMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES AGAIN AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
THIS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 5
KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 220538
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS
AS GENERAL EAST COAST RIDGE GIVES ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY SOME AS IT APPROACHES. A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE REGION...HOWEVER ANY IMPACTS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE IN STORE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS NOSE OF 850 MB TEMPS OVER 20 C WILL EDGE IN DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY YIELDING HIGHS AROUND 90. WHILE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST...STRONG CAPPING WILL EXIST AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 12 TO 14 C ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
AWAY AND LIMITING CU DEVELOPMENT. HEAT INDICIES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S...MAKING IT FEEL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE
BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM.

FAST MOVING EASTERN PACIFIC VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH
MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
BROADER HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALY. LACK OF IMPRESSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INITIALLY ON TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD KEEP CIN
IN PLACE FOR BULK OF CWA GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL PROFILES ASSOCIATED
WITH PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BY LATER TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
CAPPING CONCERNS FOR 900-800 HPA BASED PARCELS. AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL LAG TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO EXHIBIT SOME
UPWIND PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN ABOVE...GREATER
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MID CHANCE GOING MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
PROPAGATING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO LOCAL AREA.

DPROG/DT OVER PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FASTER COLD
FRONTAL PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. FORECASTED FRONTAL
TIMING STILL SUGGESTS BEST DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OR THIRD OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTORS TO COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NATURE TO MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND RELATIVELY
NARROW/PROGRESSIVE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
DAMPENING WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE
LOCAL AREA PRONE TO SERIES OF SMALL SCALE WAVES RIDING OVER THIS
RIDGE WITH PERIODIC WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FORCING. SOME INDICATIONS
IN GEM OF PRECIP CHANCES STARTING AS EARLY AS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THIS PATTERN...BUT GIVEN LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL SATURDAY. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT WILL KEEP BROADBRUSH CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA POPS GOING FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. AFTER
SOME MODERATION TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD END OF PERIOD AS
AFOREMENTIONED MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS/CLR SKIES SHOULD LEAD TO SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING BR BY MORNING... BUT VSBYS EXPECTED TO ONLY BRIEFLY FALL TO
MVFR AT WORST AT THE TERMINALS. S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY AS A CDFNT CURRENTLY OVER MN-SD MOVES E-SE. MID-UPR LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT TODAY RESULTING
IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CDFNT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. RESIDUAL WARM MID-UPR LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT DESPITE
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA... SO
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ADDING TSRA TO TAFS ATTM FOR THIS EVE... THOUGH
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 220432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S. DOES APPEAR THAT WINDS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM
EVERYWHERE HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG TO THE
VALLEYS/LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS NEAR WATER SOURCES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES AGAIN AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
THIS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 5
KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 220432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S. DOES APPEAR THAT WINDS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM
EVERYWHERE HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG TO THE
VALLEYS/LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS NEAR WATER SOURCES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1232 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S AND CALM WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE
OUTLYING SITES AGAIN AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE AT TIMES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO FOR
THIS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT MOST LIKELY WILL
REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCATTERED CU AROUND 5
KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S. DOES APPEAR THAT WINDS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM
EVERYWHERE HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG TO THE
VALLEYS/LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS NEAR WATER SOURCES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS AT KIND. AT KBMG BROUGHT IN MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT 5Z WITH VISIBILITY THERE ALREADY AT 6SM. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A STAGNANT AIR MASS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT
MOST LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 220230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S. DOES APPEAR THAT WINDS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM
EVERYWHERE HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG TO THE
VALLEYS/LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS NEAR WATER SOURCES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS AT KIND. AT KBMG BROUGHT IN MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT 5Z WITH VISIBILITY THERE ALREADY AT 6SM. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A STAGNANT AIR MASS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT
MOST LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 220155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S. DOES APPEAR THAT WINDS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM
EVERYWHERE HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG TO THE
VALLEYS/LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS NEAR WATER SOURCES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A STAGNANT AIR MASS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT
MOST LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 220155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH
TEMPS IN THE 70S AS OF 0130Z.

FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS NEEDED. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS CONTINUING TO CREEP UP INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 60S. DOES APPEAR THAT WINDS MAY NOT GO COMPLETELY CALM
EVERYWHERE HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF FOG TO THE
VALLEYS/LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL AS LOCATIONS NEAR WATER SOURCES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A STAGNANT AIR MASS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT
MOST LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 212251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
651 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
JUST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 220000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A STAGNANT AIR MASS WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT KIND COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP A BIT BUT
MOST LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-7SM RANGE. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AROUND 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO
SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 212033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
JUST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 212100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 212033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
JUST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 212100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 212033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
JUST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 212100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 212033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
JUST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 212100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 430 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211949
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS
AS GENERAL EAST COAST RIDGE GIVES ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY SOME AS IT APPROACHES. A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE REGION...HOWEVER ANY IMPACTS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE IN STORE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS NOSE OF 850 MB TEMPS OVER 20 C WILL EDGE IN DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY YIELDING HIGHS AROUND 90. WHILE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST...STRONG CAPPING WILL EXIST AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 12 TO 14 C ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
AWAY AND LIMITING CU DEVELOPMENT. HEAT INDICIES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S...MAKING IT FEEL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE
BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM.

FAST MOVING EASTERN PACIFIC VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH
MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
BROADER HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALY. LACK OF IMPRESSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INITIALLY ON TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD KEEP CIN
IN PLACE FOR BULK OF CWA GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL PROFILES ASSOCIATED
WITH PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BY LATER TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
CAPPING CONCERNS FOR 900-800 HPA BASED PARCELS. AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL LAG TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO EXHIBIT SOME
UPWIND PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN ABOVE...GREATER
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MID CHANCE GOING MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
PROPAGATING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO LOCAL AREA.

DPROG/DT OVER PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FASTER COLD
FRONTAL PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. FORECASTED FRONTAL
TIMING STILL SUGGESTS BEST DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OR THIRD OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTORS TO COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NATURE TO MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND RELATIVELY
NARROW/PROGRESSIVE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
DAMPENING WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE
LOCAL AREA PRONE TO SERIES OF SMALL SCALE WAVES RIDING OVER THIS
RIDGE WITH PERIODIC WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FORCING. SOME INDICATIONS
IN GEM OF PRECIP CHANCES STARTING AS EARLY AS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THIS PATTERN...BUT GIVEN LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL SATURDAY. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT WILL KEEP BROADBRUSH CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA POPS GOING FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. AFTER
SOME MODERATION TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD END OF PERIOD AS
AFOREMENTIONED MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SCT CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING
AGAIN. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND GIVEN BOTH AIRPORTS
SHOWED HINTS OF IT HAVE OPTED TO ADD MVFR TEMPO GROUP TO KSBN.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...LIKELY BLOWOFF FROM ANY CONVECTION TO
THE WEST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 211949
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
349 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 90 ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

YET ANOTHER SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS
AS GENERAL EAST COAST RIDGE GIVES ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND ATTEMPT TO AMPLIFY SOME AS IT APPROACHES. A COLD
FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE REGION...HOWEVER ANY IMPACTS WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL OUTSIDE THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

MUCH MORE SUMMER LIKE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL BE IN STORE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS NOSE OF 850 MB TEMPS OVER 20 C WILL EDGE IN DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY YIELDING HIGHS AROUND 90. WHILE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST...STRONG CAPPING WILL EXIST AT 700 MB WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
TO 12 TO 14 C ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS KEEPING ANY CONVECTION
AWAY AND LIMITING CU DEVELOPMENT. HEAT INDICIES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S...MAKING IT FEEL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE
BUT NOT WORTHY OF ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN ITEMS OF INTEREST FOR THE LONG TERM.

FAST MOVING EASTERN PACIFIC VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH
MEAN WESTERN CONUS RIDGING TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH
BROADER HUDSON BAY NEGATIVE UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALY. LACK OF IMPRESSIVE
DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES INITIALLY ON TUESDAY EVENING SHOULD KEEP CIN
IN PLACE FOR BULK OF CWA GIVEN WARM MID LEVEL PROFILES ASSOCIATED
WITH PLUME OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. BY LATER TUESDAY
EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FINALLY
BEGIN TO ADVECT AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
CAPPING CONCERNS FOR 900-800 HPA BASED PARCELS. AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL LAG TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID MS
RIVER VALLEY AND WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT...ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO EXHIBIT SOME
UPWIND PROPAGATION CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN ABOVE...GREATER
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF
LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MID CHANCE GOING MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
PROPAGATING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO LOCAL AREA.

DPROG/DT OVER PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FASTER COLD
FRONTAL PROGRESSION INTO LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY. FORECASTED FRONTAL
TIMING STILL SUGGESTS BEST DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST HALF OR THIRD OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIMITING FACTORS TO COVERAGE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED
NATURE TO MID LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND RELATIVELY
NARROW/PROGRESSIVE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE. HAVE MAINTAINED JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING...BUT BULK OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF AREA BY 00Z
THURSDAY.

LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY TO PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH A
RETURN OF SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
REMAINDER OF FORECAST WITH MORE AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
DAMPENING WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAKE
LOCAL AREA PRONE TO SERIES OF SMALL SCALE WAVES RIDING OVER THIS
RIDGE WITH PERIODIC WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FORCING. SOME INDICATIONS
IN GEM OF PRECIP CHANCES STARTING AS EARLY AS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THIS PATTERN...BUT GIVEN LINGERING DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL SATURDAY. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY
ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...BUT WILL KEEP BROADBRUSH CHANCE
SHRA/TSRA POPS GOING FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD. AFTER
SOME MODERATION TO LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT COOLER CONDITIONS TOWARD END OF PERIOD AS
AFOREMENTIONED MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SCT CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING
AGAIN. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND GIVEN BOTH AIRPORTS
SHOWED HINTS OF IT HAVE OPTED TO ADD MVFR TEMPO GROUP TO KSBN.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...LIKELY BLOWOFF FROM ANY CONVECTION TO
THE WEST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...FISHER


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 211902
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
JUST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 211902
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
302 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

DIURNAL CU WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE
STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND THEN QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
JUST SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A LITTLE BIT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MORE HUMID DAY FOR TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LEFT TEMP AT 89 FOR IND BASED ON
TRENDS FOR TODAY...AND ACTUALLY THE BETTER PART OF THIS SUMMER THUS
FAR! USED A MOS BLEND FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES
OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY AND THEN CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO LATE IN THE PERIOD (LIKELY)
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I 70 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONT QUICKLY DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
RAIN CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA. POST FROPA COOLER CONDITIONS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE
UPPER 70S ON THU.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 211820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 211820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 211820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 211820
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED WILL BE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL MAKE IT DRY AND COOL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY EVENING.
FOR THAT REASON...BELOW NORMAL REGIONAL ALLBLEND TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S LOOK GOOD FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.`

MODELS ARE THEN HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH SMALLER SCALE SYNOPTIC
DETAILS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT WITH AN OVERALL
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN PERSISTENT WESTERN
UPPER RIDGE AND INTENSIFYING EASTERN STATES TROUGH. AT ANY
RATE...THE 12Z GFS HOLDS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BACK FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY AS COMPARED TO THE 00Z
ECMWF. THE 12Z GEM LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS...BUT OVERALL PREFER A
PERSISTENT FORECAST PER THE REGIONAL ALLBLEND WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY FAR WEST AND THEN CHANCES
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MONDAY.

WILL STICK WITH REGIONAL ALLBLEND REGARDING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS
THEY REFLECT BELOW NORMAL READINGS WHICH LOOKS GOOD WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIWX 211731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TOMORROW. SKIES TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NRLY STNRY SFC RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS OUR
CWA TO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE SWRN 1/2 OF CWA WHERE SFC DWPTS
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER. FOG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LARGE UPR LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN LESS CU AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WARMING TREND. DESPITE COOL START TO
THE DAY WITH DAWN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE U50S/L60S... AFTN HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S. SHRTWV TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS UPR
RIDGE WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVECTION AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CDFNT TRAILING THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS IN OUR CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH GRDLY WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 23C. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGHS
TUESDAY AROUND 90 DEGREES. CONCERN THAT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION IN THE
LOW LAYERS EXTENDING INTO THE MID LAYERS. A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WITH 700/500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7C AND 8C/KM WILL BE
IN PLACE BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN MAX
CAPE VALUES. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER
GFS/BUFKIT...SO KEPT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONSERVATIVE. THE LATEST
GFS RUN SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SCT CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING
AGAIN. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND GIVEN BOTH AIRPORTS
SHOWED HINTS OF IT HAVE OPTED TO ADD MVFR TEMPO GROUP TO KSBN.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...LIKELY BLOWOFF FROM ANY CONVECTION TO
THE WEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 211731
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TOMORROW. SKIES TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NRLY STNRY SFC RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS OUR
CWA TO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE SWRN 1/2 OF CWA WHERE SFC DWPTS
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER. FOG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LARGE UPR LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN LESS CU AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WARMING TREND. DESPITE COOL START TO
THE DAY WITH DAWN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE U50S/L60S... AFTN HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S. SHRTWV TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS UPR
RIDGE WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVECTION AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CDFNT TRAILING THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS IN OUR CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH GRDLY WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 23C. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGHS
TUESDAY AROUND 90 DEGREES. CONCERN THAT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION IN THE
LOW LAYERS EXTENDING INTO THE MID LAYERS. A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WITH 700/500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7C AND 8C/KM WILL BE
IN PLACE BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN MAX
CAPE VALUES. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER
GFS/BUFKIT...SO KEPT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONSERVATIVE. THE LATEST
GFS RUN SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SCT CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING
AGAIN. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND GIVEN BOTH AIRPORTS
SHOWED HINTS OF IT HAVE OPTED TO ADD MVFR TEMPO GROUP TO KSBN.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...LIKELY BLOWOFF FROM ANY CONVECTION TO
THE WEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 211600
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT FOR MORE IFR OR WORSE FOG AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS AS WINDS ONCE AGAIN GO CALM NEAR
SUNSET. SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED AT BEST DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL PICK UP A LITTLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY NEAR 10
KNOTS TOWARDS 18Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 211514
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1114 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION INTO TOMORROW. SKIES TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NRLY STNRY SFC RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS OUR
CWA TO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE SWRN 1/2 OF CWA WHERE SFC DWPTS
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER. FOG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LARGE UPR LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN LESS CU AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WARMING TREND. DESPITE COOL START TO
THE DAY WITH DAWN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE U50S/L60S... AFTN HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S. SHRTWV TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS UPR
RIDGE WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVECTION AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CDFNT TRAILING THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS IN OUR CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH GRDLY WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 23C. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGHS
TUESDAY AROUND 90 DEGREES. CONCERN THAT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION IN THE
LOW LAYERS EXTENDING INTO THE MID LAYERS. A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WITH 700/500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7C AND 8C/KM WILL BE
IN PLACE BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN MAX
CAPE VALUES. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER
GFS/BUFKIT...SO KEPT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONSERVATIVE. THE LATEST
GFS RUN SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH GREATEST IMPACT
AT FWA WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. UPR RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN LESS CU THAN YDAY WITH JUST SCT CLOUDS
EXPECTED. THE CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT BR FROM FORMING AT LEAST AT SBN... WHILE
COMBINATION OF STILL LIGHT WINDS AND GRDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT FWA AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIND 211428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NO CHANGES WORTH NOTING TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR/LIFR FOG AT THE RURAL TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING AND HEATING WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA...AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME SCT VFR CU IS EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL AIM FOR A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT THE LAF...BMG AND HUF TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 211428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NO CHANGES WORTH NOTING TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

IFR/LIFR FOG AT THE RURAL TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING AND HEATING WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA...AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME SCT VFR CU IS EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL AIM FOR A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT THE LAF...BMG AND HUF TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 211329
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
929 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

IFR/LIFR FOG AT THE RURAL TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING AND HEATING WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA...AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME SCT VFR CU IS EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL AIM FOR A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT THE LAF...BMG AND HUF TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 211329
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
929 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 926 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

1300Z UPDATE...REMOVED PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENT TO LATEST TEMP AND DEW POINT TRENDS. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

IFR/LIFR FOG AT THE RURAL TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING AND HEATING WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA...AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME SCT VFR CU IS EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL AIM FOR A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT THE LAF...BMG AND HUF TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 211114
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
714 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMER... MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S... AND
AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY... WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NRLY STNRY SFC RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS OUR
CWA TO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE SWRN 1/2 OF CWA WHERE SFC DWPTS
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER. FOG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LARGE UPR LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN LESS CU AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WARMING TREND. DESPITE COOL START TO
THE DAY WITH DAWN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE U50S/L60S... AFTN HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S. SHRTWV TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS UPR
RIDGE WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVECTION AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CDFNT TRAILING THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS IN OUR CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH GRDLY WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 23C. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGHS
TUESDAY AROUND 90 DEGREES. CONCERN THAT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION IN THE
LOW LAYERS EXTENDING INTO THE MID LAYERS. A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WITH 700/500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7C AND 8C/KM WILL BE
IN PLACE BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN MAX
CAPE VALUES. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER
GFS/BUFKIT...SO KEPT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONSERVATIVE. THE LATEST
GFS RUN SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NO SGFNT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH GREATEST IMPACT
AT FWA WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. UPR RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN LESS CU THAN YDAY WITH JUST SCT CLOUDS
EXPECTED. THE CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
LOW LEVEL GRADIENT WINDS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT BR FROM FORMING AT LEAST AT SBN... WHILE
COMBINATION OF STILL LIGHT WINDS AND GRDLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT FWA AGAIN AROUND
DAYBREAK.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 211002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

IFR/LIFR FOG AT THE RURAL TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING AND HEATING WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA...AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME SCT VFR CU IS EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL AIM FOR A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT THE LAF...BMG AND HUF TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 211002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

IFR/LIFR FOG AT THE RURAL TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING AND HEATING WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA...AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME SCT VFR CU IS EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL AIM FOR A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT THE LAF...BMG AND HUF TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 211002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

IFR/LIFR FOG AT THE RURAL TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING AND HEATING WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA...AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME SCT VFR CU IS EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL AIM FOR A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT THE LAF...BMG AND HUF TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 211002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 211200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 602 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

IFR/LIFR FOG AT THE RURAL TAF SITES WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE AS MIXING AND HEATING WILL RESUME. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAYTIME AND EVENING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE EAST OF INDIANA...AND TIME
HEIGHT SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY. WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S...SOME SCT VFR CU IS EXPECTED.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS WILL AIM FOR A PERSISTENCE-TYPE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH IFR TO LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY AT THE LAF...BMG AND HUF TAF SITES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIWX 210839
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
439 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMER... MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S... AND
AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY... WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NRLY STNRY SFC RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS OUR
CWA TO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE SWRN 1/2 OF CWA WHERE SFC DWPTS
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER. FOG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LARGE UPR LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN LESS CU AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WARMING TREND. DESPITE COOL START TO
THE DAY WITH DAWN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE U50S/L60S... AFTN HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S. SHRTWV TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS UPR
RIDGE WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVECTION AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CDFNT TRAILING THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS IN OUR CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH GRDLY WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 23C. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGHS
TUESDAY AROUND 90 DEGREES. CONCERN THAT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION IN THE
LOW LAYERS EXTENDING INTO THE MID LAYERS. A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WITH 700/500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7C AND 8C/KM WILL BE
IN PLACE BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN MAX
CAPE VALUES. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER
GFS/BUFKIT...SO KEPT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONSERVATIVE. THE LATEST
GFS RUN SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AS A CDFNT OVER
ND-NW MN MOVES SLOWLY SEWD TO SE SD-CENTRAL MN BY 06Z TUE. LIGHT
GRADIENT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS NRN INDIANA. EXPECT THIS WILL IMPACT FWA BY DAYBREAK...
WHILE A LITTLE LARGER TEMP-DWPT SPREAD AT SBN SUGGESTS THEY WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN JUST SCT CU TODAY...CLEARING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 210839
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
439 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARMER... MORE HUMID CONDITIONS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S... AND
AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY... WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID 60S. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

NRLY STNRY SFC RIDGE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS OUR
CWA TO THE SRN PLAINS THIS MORNING. LIGHT GRADIENT AND CLEAR SKIES
HAVE ALLOWED PATCHY RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG TO DEVELOP AGAIN
OVERNIGHT... MAINLY ACROSS THE SWRN 1/2 OF CWA WHERE SFC DWPTS
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER. FOG SHOULD BE QUITE SHALLOW AND BURN OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. LARGE UPR LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NM WILL
EXPAND NEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY RESULTING IN LESS CU AND A
CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING WARMING TREND. DESPITE COOL START TO
THE DAY WITH DAWN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE U50S/L60S... AFTN HIGHS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S. SHRTWV TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS UPR
RIDGE WILL BE ENHANCED BY CONVECTION AS IT RACES EAST ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS/UPR MIDWEST TONIGHT. APPROACH OF THE CDFNT TRAILING THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS IN OUR CWA TONIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH GRDLY WARMING/MODIFYING AIRMASS SHOULD LIMIT TEMP
FALLS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE M60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VERY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS APPROACHING 23C. THEREFORE...KEPT HIGHS
TUESDAY AROUND 90 DEGREES. CONCERN THAT A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO FIRE WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION IN THE
LOW LAYERS EXTENDING INTO THE MID LAYERS. A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER WITH 700/500 MB LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7C AND 8C/KM WILL BE
IN PLACE BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND DOWN MAX
CAPE VALUES. WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK PER
GFS/BUFKIT...SO KEPT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONSERVATIVE. THE LATEST
GFS RUN SUPPORTS THE ONGOING FORECAST WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDER FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS ALSO CONTINUES TO BE VERY
CONSISTENT WITH FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS...SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AS A CDFNT OVER
ND-NW MN MOVES SLOWLY SEWD TO SE SD-CENTRAL MN BY 06Z TUE. LIGHT
GRADIENT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS NRN INDIANA. EXPECT THIS WILL IMPACT FWA BY DAYBREAK...
WHILE A LITTLE LARGER TEMP-DWPT SPREAD AT SBN SUGGESTS THEY WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN JUST SCT CU TODAY...CLEARING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 210810
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z IND TAF ISSUANCE/...

BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT IND OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS
WE REACH MAX COOLING OF THE DAY. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUN-UP AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES.


/DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 210810
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 210900Z IND TAF ISSUANCE/...

BRIEF MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT IND OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS
WE REACH MAX COOLING OF THE DAY. A QUICK RETURN TO VFR IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUN-UP AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES.


/DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 210651
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 210651
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 210651
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 210651
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING A BRIEF RETURN OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
TO CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

WITH AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS. THE BUILDING RIDGE
AND SUNSHINE SHOULD BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.
THESE ARE CLOSER TO THE MET MOS AS MAV MOS HAS BEEN TOO WARM LATELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES EARLY THEN ON CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODELS ARE
CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY FOR MUCH OF
TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET COOL ENOUGH FOR DENSE FOG TONIGHT
EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT. USED A BLEND OF
MODELS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND
90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS.  MET MOS AGREES BETTER WITH THE MAV MOS
SO HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN MAV THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. WILL USE
A BLEND MOST LOCATIONS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WANING AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY AND CONFINE THE HIGHEST POPS TO
LATE IN THE PERIOD. WILL KEEP THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA DRY
WITH EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT.

WEAKER CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BUILDS. WILL TRY AND TIME THIS WITH HIGHER
POPS IN THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

WILL LOWER POPS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 210628
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FINALLY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU HAS DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING JUST
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT 0130Z.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE EVENING UPDATE AS CURRENT
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERTOP OF THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT PRESENT AGAIN TONIGHT... PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE LOWER 60S...COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME
RURAL AREAS. FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL ALONG WITH THE SPS
ISSUED EARLIER. BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME OF THE
OUTLYING AREAS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN ON TIMING OF POPS
RELATED TO A PLAINS SURFACE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT UPPER TROUGH WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY 00Z THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
A DRY COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S PER 12Z MOS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 210628
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FINALLY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU HAS DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING JUST
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT 0130Z.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE EVENING UPDATE AS CURRENT
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERTOP OF THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT PRESENT AGAIN TONIGHT... PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE LOWER 60S...COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME
RURAL AREAS. FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL ALONG WITH THE SPS
ISSUED EARLIER. BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME OF THE
OUTLYING AREAS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN ON TIMING OF POPS
RELATED TO A PLAINS SURFACE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT UPPER TROUGH WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY 00Z THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
A DRY COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S PER 12Z MOS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 228 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD
FRONT BUILDING ACROSS INDIANA ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH YET ANOTHER SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

BY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE A
BIT WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON NW FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...KEEPING NW IN
PLACE ACROSS ACROSS INDIANA AND PASSING SEVERAL SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS...THERE
IS ENOUGH HERE TO KEEP CHCS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 210531
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
131 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALLOWING WARMER AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID
80S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ON TUESDAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST A BIT EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD OFF ON ANY PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD BUT WILL STILL ALLOW THE MAIN SURGE OF WARMER AIR TO BEGIN.
WITH WARMER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY...OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE UPR 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. COULD BE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SUNSHINE
EARLIER TODAY ALLOWING FOR SOME "DRYING" OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...THINK THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE AND WILL NOT PLACE IN
GRIDS.

INCREASE IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR WILL ALLOW FOR LESS IN THE WAY OF CU
DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE. STILL EXPECTING
SCT CU TO POP TO LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SETUP. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

INCREASING HEAT FOLLOWED BY CONVECTIVE CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE
LONG TERM.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN ASSOCIATION
WITH CUT-OFF PV ANOMALY ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
DAMPEN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST FOR
TUESDAY WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT. DAMPENING OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD MIGRATION OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
WAA SHOULD LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS TO AROUND 900 HPA OR SO. MIXING TO
THIS LEVEL COMBINED WITH CONSENSUS LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS GENERALLY
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LINGERING AXIS OF
RELATIVELY DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD STILL RESIDE FROM MID MS
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS A REMNANT OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE
LOCAL AREA HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SLOWLY
RAMPS UP FOR TUESDAY...DRAWING IN SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. MORE LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS MAY
TEND TO DISCOURAGE SIGNIFICANT AFTERNOON DEW POINT DROPS...AND STILL
FEEL THAT MID TO UPPER 60S DEW POINTS ARE REASONABLE GIVEN THE
COMPETING FACTORS OF WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION/DIURNAL MIXING. THE
ABOVE SCENARIO SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WARMISH MID
LEVELS AND RELATIVELY MODEST MOISTURE PROFILES PROVIDING INHIBITION
FOR SFC/NEAR SFC BASED PARCELS.

PRIMARY MID LEVEL IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWEST CONUS PV ANOMALY
SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NOCTURNAL
STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAKING
IT INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OBVIOUSLY AT THIS
FORECAST DISTANCE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST IN REGARDS TO
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND TRACK/STRENGTH OF ANY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTS. ORIENTATION OF BEST INSTABILITY AXIS
ALSO MAY TEND TO SUPPORT MORE OF AN UPWIND PROPAGATION TO THIS
POTENTIAL CONVECTION AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHEAST INTO LOCAL AREA. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED CONSERVATIVE POPS IN THE LOW TO MID
CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS LOCAL AREA MAY RESULT IN ANY
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT CONVECTION UPSTREAM BEING IN DIMINISHING STATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST HALF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TREND IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOWARD FASTER FRONTAL
PROGRESSION...AND HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PAST SEVERAL FORECASTS IN
SPEEDING UP POP TIMING WHICH MAY NEED TO CONTINUED IN UPCOMING
FORECASTS. CURRENT INDICATIONS NOW SUGGEST BULK OF PRECIP MAY BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE QUITE LOW GIVEN SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING TO
FRONT...AND OVERALL MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES.

A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FOR
THU-FRI...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH WESTERN CONUS MEAN UPPER RIDGING MAY PROVIDE
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT VERY SLOWLY SOUTH AS A CDFNT OVER
ND-NW MN MOVES SLOWLY SEWD TO SE SD-CENTRAL MN BY 06Z TUE. LIGHT
GRADIENT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH SOME MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR ALREADY OCCURRING
ACROSS NRN INDIANA. EXPECT THIS WILL IMPACT FWA BY DAYBREAK...
WHILE A LITTLE LARGER TEMP-DWPT SPREAD AT SBN SUGGESTS THEY WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL RESULT IN JUST SCT CU TODAY...CLEARING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
SOMEWHAT VARIABLE BUT MOSTLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIND 210428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FINALLY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU HAS DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING JUST
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT 0130Z.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE EVENING UPDATE AS CURRENT
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERTOP OF THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT PRESENT AGAIN TONIGHT... PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE LOWER 60S...COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME
RURAL AREAS. FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL ALONG WITH THE SPS
ISSUED EARLIER. BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME OF THE
OUTLYING AREAS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN ON TIMING OF POPS
RELATED TO A PLAINS SURFACE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT UPPER TROUGH WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY 00Z THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
A DRY COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S PER 12Z MOS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THERE WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS TWO SEPARATE COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
IT ON THURSDAY...STARTING A DRY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT IS
WHEN THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. LATEST
INITIALIZATION CAME IN DRY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ENTERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD
OF THAT FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA...THIS IS
BEING HANDLED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP/JP

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 210428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FINALLY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU HAS DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING JUST
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT 0130Z.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE EVENING UPDATE AS CURRENT
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERTOP OF THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT PRESENT AGAIN TONIGHT... PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE LOWER 60S...COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME
RURAL AREAS. FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL ALONG WITH THE SPS
ISSUED EARLIER. BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME OF THE
OUTLYING AREAS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN ON TIMING OF POPS
RELATED TO A PLAINS SURFACE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT UPPER TROUGH WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY 00Z THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
A DRY COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S PER 12Z MOS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THERE WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS TWO SEPARATE COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
IT ON THURSDAY...STARTING A DRY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT IS
WHEN THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. LATEST
INITIALIZATION CAME IN DRY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ENTERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD
OF THAT FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA...THIS IS
BEING HANDLED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 210428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FINALLY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU HAS DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING JUST
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT 0130Z.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE EVENING UPDATE AS CURRENT
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERTOP OF THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT PRESENT AGAIN TONIGHT... PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE LOWER 60S...COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME
RURAL AREAS. FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL ALONG WITH THE SPS
ISSUED EARLIER. BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME OF THE
OUTLYING AREAS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN ON TIMING OF POPS
RELATED TO A PLAINS SURFACE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT UPPER TROUGH WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY 00Z THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
A DRY COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S PER 12Z MOS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THERE WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS TWO SEPARATE COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
IT ON THURSDAY...STARTING A DRY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT IS
WHEN THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. LATEST
INITIALIZATION CAME IN DRY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ENTERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD
OF THAT FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA...THIS IS
BEING HANDLED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 210428
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN...AN UPPER WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
CENTRAL INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. FINALLY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 947 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

MOST OF THE DIURNAL CU HAS DIMINISHED WITH SUNSET...LEAVING JUST
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
TEMPS RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AT 0130Z.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED AGAIN FOR THE EVENING UPDATE AS CURRENT
FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
CIRRUS DRIFTING OVERTOP OF THE EXPANDING UPPER RIDGE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A LAYER OF SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT PRESENT AGAIN TONIGHT... PATCHY FOG AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS
LARGELY IN THE LOWER 60S...COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN SOME
RURAL AREAS. FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL ALONG WITH THE SPS
ISSUED EARLIER. BUMPED TEMPS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME OF THE
OUTLYING AREAS...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 222 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN ON TIMING OF POPS
RELATED TO A PLAINS SURFACE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHWEST
FLOW.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT UPPER TROUGH WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
BY 00Z THURSDAY. SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES STARTING OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY. PRIOR TO THAT...UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD KEEP IT DRY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
A DRY COLUMN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S PER 12Z MOS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THERE WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS TWO SEPARATE COLD FRONTS TRAVERSE THE AREA. THE FIRST
COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. HOWEVER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN BEHIND
IT ON THURSDAY...STARTING A DRY PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY. THAT IS
WHEN THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. LATEST
INITIALIZATION CAME IN DRY ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ENTERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS LIFT IMPROVES AHEAD
OF THAT FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO CHANCE ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THAT FRONT PASSES OVER THE AREA...THIS IS
BEING HANDLED WELL WITH A MODEL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 21/0600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO FOG AT THE OUTLYING SITES AGAIN. SET UP IS VERY
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT SO WENT WITH SIMILAR TIMING/CONDITIONS AT EACH
SITE TO LAST NIGHT. KIND SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY VFR WITH PERHAPS A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WHILE KLAF SHOULD BE MVFR WITH
POSSIBLY SOME TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS. KBMG AND KHUF COULD SEE IFR OR
LOWER WITH VISIBILITIES BOUNCING AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ALL FOG
SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 13-14Z AND THEN VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND
LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





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