Home > Products > State Listing > Indiana Data
Latest:
 AFDIND |  AFDIWX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIND 270755
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN AND RESULTANT COLD CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW BECOMES FAR MORE ZONAL
AND TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S. FIRST
HOWEVER...A FLURRY OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY...AND NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

QUITE COOL FOR A LATE MARCH DAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO GET NO
WARMER THAN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA. WENT A BIT BELOW CONSENSUS NUMBERS PER UPSTREAM MAXES FROM
THURSDAY.

WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST SOME
SHALLOW MOISTURE INITIALLY. UPSTREAM OBS AND RADAR MOSAIC DOES
SHOW A FEW LIGHT RETURNS AS WELL...AND HRRR BREAKS OUT A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATER TODAY. SHOULD BE OF LITTLE TO NO CONSEQUENCE
FOR MOST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS COMPACT
SURFACE HIGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL MERIT SOME CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE WITH A FEW MINOR
TWEAKS...MAINLY TO MIN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MIN TEMP
RECORDS FOR MARCH 28TH COULD BE IN PLAY. THE RECORD AT
INDIANAPOLIS IS 16 DEGREES SET IN 1934.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN COOL BUT BEGIN TO RECOVER FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 270718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 270718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIND 270718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















000
FXUS63 KIND 270718
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

EXTENDED MODELS SUGGESTING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH
PATTERN WILL CHANGE NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL PACIFIC FLOW TAKING OVER.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES CENTRAL INDIANA WITH 60S
POSSIBLE BY NEXT TUESDAY PER THE REGIONAL BLEND. ZONAL FLOW IN THE
EXTENDED TYPICALLY CAUSES TIMING ISSUES REGARDING ANY SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM...AND THIS WILL BE NO EXCEPTION. HOWEVER...THE MAIN SYSTEM TO
LOOK OUT FOR WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK PER THE
REGIONAL BLEND. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT NORTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
















  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIWX 270608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST
AIR STILL RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS AS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND
LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND
BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
IN MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN
EXTRA FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM
GUIDANCE COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF
THE 20S. RECORD DATA IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN
INTACT.

                                        SBN           FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)     25 IN 1955    26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH)           -9 IN 1934    10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS
IS MODELED TO CREST MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS
LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER
SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM. PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY
DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA
FOR A TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CONTD VFR MET CONDS FOR NRN IN TAF SITES WITH PRIMARY N/S LAKE
EFFECT BAND REMAINING WEST OF KSBN REGION. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIND DETAIL WITH HIR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 270608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST
AIR STILL RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS AS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND
LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND
BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
IN MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN
EXTRA FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM
GUIDANCE COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF
THE 20S. RECORD DATA IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN
INTACT.

                                        SBN           FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)     25 IN 1955    26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH)           -9 IN 1934    10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS
IS MODELED TO CREST MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS
LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER
SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM. PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY
DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA
FOR A TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CONTD VFR MET CONDS FOR NRN IN TAF SITES WITH PRIMARY N/S LAKE
EFFECT BAND REMAINING WEST OF KSBN REGION. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIND DETAIL WITH HIR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 270608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST
AIR STILL RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS AS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND
LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND
BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
IN MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN
EXTRA FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM
GUIDANCE COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF
THE 20S. RECORD DATA IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN
INTACT.

                                        SBN           FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)     25 IN 1955    26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH)           -9 IN 1934    10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS
IS MODELED TO CREST MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS
LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER
SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM. PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY
DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA
FOR A TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CONTD VFR MET CONDS FOR NRN IN TAF SITES WITH PRIMARY N/S LAKE
EFFECT BAND REMAINING WEST OF KSBN REGION. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIND DETAIL WITH HIR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 270608
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST
AIR STILL RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT
LASTS AS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C
ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE
EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND
LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND
BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING
IN MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN
EXTRA FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM
GUIDANCE COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF
THE 20S. RECORD DATA IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN
INTACT.

                                        SBN           FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)     25 IN 1955    26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH)           -9 IN 1934    10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS
IS MODELED TO CREST MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES LATER SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS
LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER
SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN
LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM. PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY
DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND
MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL
CYCLES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA
FOR A TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CONTD VFR MET CONDS FOR NRN IN TAF SITES WITH PRIMARY N/S LAKE
EFFECT BAND REMAINING WEST OF KSBN REGION. OTHERWISE...DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIND DETAIL WITH HIR MIDDAY/AFTERNOON GUSTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 270408
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TOWARDS/AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY AS 850MB THERMAL TROUGH MOVES
OVERHEAD...RESULTING IN VFR CEILINGS NEAR THAT LEVEL AT THE TAF
SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LAYERED CLOUD ABOVE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 271800Z.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20
KTS BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 270155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 270155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 270155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 270155
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE
MOMENT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN.

AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP GUIDE THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA OVERNIGHT...SO BUMPED UP SKY COVER LATER TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT...AND
FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS WELL REPRESENTED. THUS MADE NO CHANGES TO
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK/50
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 262332
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
732 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST AIR STILL
RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND
OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS
THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN EXTRA
FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM GUIDANCE COLDEST
WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. RECORD DATA
IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT.

                                       SBN             FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)    25 IN 1955      26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH AM)       -9 IN 1934      10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS MODELED TO CREST
MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM.
PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR A
TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HAVE OPTED FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS PACKAGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUD DECK GENERALLY IN THE
4-5KFT RANGE. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME
LOWER CIGS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IMPACT MAINLY KSBN. WITH FLOW
VEERING THOUGH MOST OF THIS COULD BE JUST WEST OF TERMINAL.
THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP LOW END VFR CIG FOR NOW AND OBSERVE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CLOUDS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL PICK BACK UP FRIDAY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-24 KNOTS
POSSIBLE OUT OF NORTHWEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 262332
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
732 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST AIR STILL
RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND
OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS
THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN EXTRA
FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM GUIDANCE COLDEST
WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. RECORD DATA
IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT.

                                       SBN             FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)    25 IN 1955      26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH AM)       -9 IN 1934      10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS MODELED TO CREST
MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM.
PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR A
TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HAVE OPTED FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS PACKAGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUD DECK GENERALLY IN THE
4-5KFT RANGE. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME
LOWER CIGS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IMPACT MAINLY KSBN. WITH FLOW
VEERING THOUGH MOST OF THIS COULD BE JUST WEST OF TERMINAL.
THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP LOW END VFR CIG FOR NOW AND OBSERVE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CLOUDS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL PICK BACK UP FRIDAY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-24 KNOTS
POSSIBLE OUT OF NORTHWEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 262332
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
732 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST AIR STILL
RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND
OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS
THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN EXTRA
FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM GUIDANCE COLDEST
WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. RECORD DATA
IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT.

                                       SBN             FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)    25 IN 1955      26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH AM)       -9 IN 1934      10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS MODELED TO CREST
MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM.
PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR A
TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HAVE OPTED FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS PACKAGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUD DECK GENERALLY IN THE
4-5KFT RANGE. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME
LOWER CIGS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IMPACT MAINLY KSBN. WITH FLOW
VEERING THOUGH MOST OF THIS COULD BE JUST WEST OF TERMINAL.
THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP LOW END VFR CIG FOR NOW AND OBSERVE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CLOUDS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL PICK BACK UP FRIDAY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-24 KNOTS
POSSIBLE OUT OF NORTHWEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 262332
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
732 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST AIR STILL
RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND
OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS
THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN EXTRA
FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM GUIDANCE COLDEST
WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. RECORD DATA
IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT.

                                       SBN             FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)    25 IN 1955      26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH AM)       -9 IN 1934      10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS MODELED TO CREST
MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM.
PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR A
TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HAVE OPTED FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS PACKAGE AT BOTH TAF SITES.
LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS INDICATE CLOUD DECK GENERALLY IN THE
4-5KFT RANGE. AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT COULD SEE SOME
LOWER CIGS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN IMPACT MAINLY KSBN. WITH FLOW
VEERING THOUGH MOST OF THIS COULD BE JUST WEST OF TERMINAL.
THEREFORE OPTED TO KEEP LOW END VFR CIG FOR NOW AND OBSERVE
TRENDS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CLOUDS THROUGH END OF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL PICK BACK UP FRIDAY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 20-24 KNOTS
POSSIBLE OUT OF NORTHWEST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 262234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 262234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 262234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 262234
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 270000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

REMAINING CEILINGS 030-035 LOOK DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO EXPECTING
THESE CEILINGS TO DISSIPATE BY OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME.

AS LOWER LEVEL WINDS VEER LATER TONIGHT...EXPECTING CEILINGS 035-040
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES...TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE TAF SITES
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER ABOUT 270700Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LAYERED
CLOUD ABOVE 050 AS WELL.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 320-350 DEGREES AT 5-8 KTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 262022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 262100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 262022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 262100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 261915
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261915
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

VERY COOL WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES. RIDGING IN ITS WAKE PORTENDS A RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY HELP TO
BRING MILDER AIR BUT ALSO LOW THREAT FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH EACH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH IF ANY OF BREAK IN CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS FOR
TONIGHT AND ITS IMPACT ON COOLING. FOR THE MOMENT THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HAS BEEN THICKENING AND RETURNING HIGHER
CLOUD DECK WHILE COLD ADVECTION ACTING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF HERE HAVE DEVELOPED STRATOCUMULUS DECKS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT
IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL BUMP MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON THIS BUT STILL EXPECTING MINS FROM 25 TO 30.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WHETHER ANY FLURRIES MAY OCCUR FRIDAY AND
TIMING OF SUNDAY SYSTEM.

UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS STATE DURING DAY FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS
VERY DRY BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN SOMEWHAT MOIST. FEEL LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CLOUD BEARING LEVELS SHOULD OFFSET UPPER TROUGH
LIFT AND KEEP FLURRIES FROM OCCURRING.

WITH COLD ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD MEANS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL CLIMB NO HIGHER THAN 35 TO 40 OR SIMILAR
TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER FRIDAY RELATIVE TO
CURRENT FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS.

CLEARING SETS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS DOWN AND
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER EAST. WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING TO
LOWER TEENS...NEAR RECORD LOWS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...HAVE ADDED AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES THOUGH A LOT OF VIRGA MAY
PRECEDE ANY RAIN AS MOISTURE IN COLUMN TAKES SOME TIME TO RECOVER.
MIGHT BE UNDER DOING WARM-UP OF TEMPS ON SUNDAY AS PRETTY DECENT
WARM ADVECTION SETS UP AHEAD OF NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. MAIN NEGATING
FEATURE WITH WARM-UP WILL BE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS WITH THE TROUGH.
MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH TIMING OF THESE CLOUDS AND RAIN BUT
HAVE BEEN FASTER THAN RECENT RUNS. WILL KEEP WITH MID 40S
NORTHEAST AND LOWER 50S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.  BRIEF
RIDGING/DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON MONDAY...BUT LATEST REGIONAL
INITIALIZATION IS BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  THIS RAIN IS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WILL
NOT DIVERT FROM INITIALIZATION.  LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  RAIN AHEAD OF
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL START OVERSPREADING CENTRAL INDIANA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TUCEK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...TUCEK
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 261912
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
312 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST AIR STILL
RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND
OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS
THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN EXTRA
FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM GUIDANCE COLDEST
WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. RECORD DATA
IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT.

                                       SBN             FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)    25 IN 1955      26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH AM)       -9 IN 1934      10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS MODELED TO CREST
MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM.
PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR A
TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SFC LOW CONTS NEWD TRACK THROUGH MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AM.
BRIEF/TRANSIENT PTYPE MIX WITH RASN AS BACK EDGE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY
PULL EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. UNDERCUT OF DRIER SFC DPS SHOULD AFFORD
IMPROVING CONDITONS...ABOVE FUELING/ALT REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 14 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 261912
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
312 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST AIR STILL
RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND
OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS
THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN EXTRA
FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM GUIDANCE COLDEST
WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. RECORD DATA
IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT.

                                       SBN             FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)    25 IN 1955      26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH AM)       -9 IN 1934      10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS MODELED TO CREST
MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM.
PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR A
TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SFC LOW CONTS NEWD TRACK THROUGH MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AM.
BRIEF/TRANSIENT PTYPE MIX WITH RASN AS BACK EDGE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY
PULL EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. UNDERCUT OF DRIER SFC DPS SHOULD AFFORD
IMPROVING CONDITONS...ABOVE FUELING/ALT REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 14 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 261912
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
312 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST AIR STILL
RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND
OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS
THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN EXTRA
FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM GUIDANCE COLDEST
WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. RECORD DATA
IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT.

                                       SBN             FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)    25 IN 1955      26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH AM)       -9 IN 1934      10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS MODELED TO CREST
MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM.
PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR A
TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SFC LOW CONTS NEWD TRACK THROUGH MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AM.
BRIEF/TRANSIENT PTYPE MIX WITH RASN AS BACK EDGE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY
PULL EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. UNDERCUT OF DRIER SFC DPS SHOULD AFFORD
IMPROVING CONDITONS...ABOVE FUELING/ALT REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 14 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 261912
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
312 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MAINLY DRY AND UNSEASONABLE COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AND ONLY
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

FEW SPRINKLES IS ALL THAT IS LEFT IN THE FAR SE AS SYSTEM BEGINS TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS
TO WARM BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SOME AREAS WITH COLDEST AIR STILL
RESIDING NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. ENJOY IT WHILE IT LASTS AS TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO -12 TO -14 C ACROSS THE AREA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES DOWNWIND
OF LK MI AS MID TEEN DELTA T`S AND LIMITED MSTR BRINGS AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFLAKES. CLOUD COVER WILL BE A BIGGER ISSUE AS
THE COLD AIR POURS IN AND BRINGS A MISERABLE END TO THE WORK WEEK.

COMBINATION OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ABOVE NOTED COLD
LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING IN
MANY AREAS. IF MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN CAN BE REALIZED IN THE
AFTERNOON...LATE MARCH SUN ANGLE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN EXTRA
FEW DEGREES BUT HOPE RATHER BLEAK AT THIS TIME. NAM GUIDANCE COLDEST
WITH HIGHS IN NW AREAS NOT EVEN GETTING OUT OF THE 20S. RECORD DATA
IS BELOW...WHICH AT THIS POINT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT.

                                       SBN             FWA
RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE (27TH)    25 IN 1955      26 IN 1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE (28TH AM)       -9 IN 1934      10 IN 1955

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

TEMPS AVERAGING 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH STANDARDS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS. MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THIS PERIOD. FIRST WAVE OF NE PACIFIC ORIGINS IS MODELED TO CREST
MEAN WESTERN RIDGE AND AMPLIFY SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER
SUNDAY-SUNDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF PCPN APPEARS LIKELY WITH THIS
FEATURE GIVEN DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND AT LEAST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
WITHIN LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE/LLJ. HOWEVER SIG TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN GUIDANCE PRECLUDES ANYTHING HIGHER THAN LOW-MID CHC POPS ATTM.
PTYPE ALSO REMAINS UNCERTAIN AND LIKELY DEPENDENT ON DIURNAL
TIMING. NEXT CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM AROUND MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY
TUESDAY WILL BE MORE COMPACT AND TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LAKES PER LAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW WARMER AIR TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE AREA FOR A
TIME...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WARRANTED FOR WAA PCPN MONDAY
NIGHT GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SFC LOW CONTS NEWD TRACK THROUGH MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AM.
BRIEF/TRANSIENT PTYPE MIX WITH RASN AS BACK EDGE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY
PULL EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. UNDERCUT OF DRIER SFC DPS SHOULD AFFORD
IMPROVING CONDITONS...ABOVE FUELING/ALT REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 14 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 261730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 261730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 261730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261730
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
130 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS TAF SITES
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING TO THE EAST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO RETURN EARLY THIS EVENING AND
PREVAIL INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE NIGHT...BUT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

INSERTED MENTION OF FOG AT KBMG TONIGHT WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH
TO ESCAPE FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD...INCREASING LATE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261411
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...
EXTENDED RAIN THROUGH THU 16Z AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261411
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...
EXTENDED RAIN THROUGH THU 16Z AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261411
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...
EXTENDED RAIN THROUGH THU 16Z AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261411
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1011 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

UPDATE...
EXTENDED RAIN THROUGH THU 16Z AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...PUMA/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261353
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
953 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 941 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

PRECIP TREND OF EXITING WEST BUT WITH SOME SNOW MIX OCCURRING AT
END STILL FAIRLY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONGOING FORECAST. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED EXCEPT BRIEFLY IN LOCALIZED AREAS BUT THAT
WILL MELT QUICKLY. STILL SEE RAIN ENDING MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
BY THE END OF THE NOON HOUR...ALREADY DONE FROM NEAR TERRE HAUTE
NORTHEAST TO KOKOMO.

CLEARING SKIES HAVE BEEN SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S NORTH AND MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCL RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...TUCEK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 261103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
703 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT MIDDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY END WITH A BIT OF SNOW...PRIMARILY IN FAR
NORTHEAST INDIANA...EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAPIDLY INCREASING SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN OH LIKELY
SIGNALING RAPID NERLY ENERGY TRANSFER ALONG FGEN BOUNDARY AS DEEP
POSI TILTED LATITUDINAL TROF WITH ACTIVE SRN PLAINS PVU FOLD
CONTS EWD PROGRESSION TODAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS OVERDONE IN
REGARDS TO INITIAL LOW LEVEL TW/DPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SUCCINCT TW
COLLAPSE. FAVOR LATER ITERATIONS OF RAPID UPDATE CYCLES THAT HAVE
CONTD TO DELAY AND/OR SUGGEST MARGINAL TW PROFILES LATER THIS AM
FOR PD OF MIXED RASN AS PRECIP ENDS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS E-SE OF CWA BY 15 UTC. THIS WILL LEAVE A
RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY ACCUM...PRIMARILY
LT ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS IN NERN QUARTER CWA ON GRASSY
AREAS/RAISED DECKS...WITH GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPS REMAINING AOA
FZG AND WET...TO FOSTER AS LEAST A CONCURRENT PARTIAL MELT.
MINIMAL THERMAL RECOVERY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONTD TOKEN MENTION OF LK INDUCED CHC FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI
TONIGHT AS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS PUSH INTO THE MID TEENS. LARGE
SCALE DVM AND DRY AIRMASS TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE
EVENT AT MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

STILL NOT ABLE TO ESCAPE THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS YET ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL EXTEND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS PERIOD.
THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY TRENDED DOWN OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...AND NOW ARE NEAR THE 97TH PERCENTILES FOR THE COLDEST
HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THESE DATES. THE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AND
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. RETAINED SOME LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES FRIDAY WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN 15C AND 20C ALONG
WITH A REASONABLE LAKE FETCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. IN THE
INTERIM...EXPANDED THE TIMING OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THERMAL
THRESHOLDS WERE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL...SO KEPT A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SFC LOW CONTS NEWD TRACK THROUGH MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AM.
BRIEF/TRANSIENT PTYPE MIX WITH RASN AS BACK EDGE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY
PULL EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. UNDERCUT OF DRIER SFC DPS SHOULD AFFORD
IMPROVING CONDITONS...ABOVE FUELING/ALT REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 14 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 261103
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
703 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT MIDDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY END WITH A BIT OF SNOW...PRIMARILY IN FAR
NORTHEAST INDIANA...EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAPIDLY INCREASING SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN OH LIKELY
SIGNALING RAPID NERLY ENERGY TRANSFER ALONG FGEN BOUNDARY AS DEEP
POSI TILTED LATITUDINAL TROF WITH ACTIVE SRN PLAINS PVU FOLD
CONTS EWD PROGRESSION TODAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS OVERDONE IN
REGARDS TO INITIAL LOW LEVEL TW/DPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SUCCINCT TW
COLLAPSE. FAVOR LATER ITERATIONS OF RAPID UPDATE CYCLES THAT HAVE
CONTD TO DELAY AND/OR SUGGEST MARGINAL TW PROFILES LATER THIS AM
FOR PD OF MIXED RASN AS PRECIP ENDS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS E-SE OF CWA BY 15 UTC. THIS WILL LEAVE A
RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY ACCUM...PRIMARILY
LT ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS IN NERN QUARTER CWA ON GRASSY
AREAS/RAISED DECKS...WITH GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPS REMAINING AOA
FZG AND WET...TO FOSTER AS LEAST A CONCURRENT PARTIAL MELT.
MINIMAL THERMAL RECOVERY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONTD TOKEN MENTION OF LK INDUCED CHC FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI
TONIGHT AS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS PUSH INTO THE MID TEENS. LARGE
SCALE DVM AND DRY AIRMASS TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE
EVENT AT MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

STILL NOT ABLE TO ESCAPE THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS YET ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL EXTEND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS PERIOD.
THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY TRENDED DOWN OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...AND NOW ARE NEAR THE 97TH PERCENTILES FOR THE COLDEST
HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THESE DATES. THE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AND
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. RETAINED SOME LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES FRIDAY WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN 15C AND 20C ALONG
WITH A REASONABLE LAKE FETCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. IN THE
INTERIM...EXPANDED THE TIMING OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THERMAL
THRESHOLDS WERE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL...SO KEPT A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SFC LOW CONTS NEWD TRACK THROUGH MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS AM.
BRIEF/TRANSIENT PTYPE MIX WITH RASN AS BACK EDGE BEGINS TO RAPIDLY
PULL EWD NEXT FEW HOURS. UNDERCUT OF DRIER SFC DPS SHOULD AFFORD
IMPROVING CONDITONS...ABOVE FUELING/ALT REQUIREMENTS AT KFWA
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 14 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 261002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCLS RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCLS RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCLS RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 261002
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
602 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 261200Z/...

ISSUED AT 557 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY. SOME BRIEF VFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ALLOW MVFR CIGS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTION HINT AT TRAPPED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH TODAY. BY 21Z-24Z...CCLS RISE TO VFR LEVELS...BUT
CIGS STILL SHOULD LINGER.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A
LOWERING OF CIGS BACK INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...AS CCLS FALL TO
NEAR 2500FT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
450 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT MIDDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY END WITH A BIT OF SNOW...PRIMARILY IN FAR
NORTHEAST INDIANA...EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAPIDLY INCREASING SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN OH LIKELY
SIGNALING RAPID NERLY ENERGY TRANSFER ALONG FGEN BOUNDARY AS DEEP
POSI TILTED LATITUDINAL TROF WITH ACTIVE SRN PLAINS PVU FOLD
CONTS EWD PROGRESSION TODAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS OVERDONE IN
REGARDS TO INITIAL LOW LEVEL TW/DPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SUCCINCT TW
COLLAPSE. FAVOR LATER ITERATIONS OF RAPID UPDATE CYCLES THAT HAVE
CONTD TO DELAY AND/OR SUGGEST MARGINAL TW PROFILES LATER THIS AM
FOR PD OF MIXED RASN AS PRECIP ENDS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS E-SE OF CWA BY 15 UTC. THIS WILL LEAVE A
RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY ACCUM...PRIMARILY
LT ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS IN NERN QUARTER CWA ON GRASSY
AREAS/RAISED DECKS...WITH GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPS REMAINING AOA
FZG AND WET...TO FOSTER AS LEAST A CONCURRENT PARTIAL MELT.
MINIMAL THERMAL RECOVERY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONTD TOKEN MENTION OF LK INDUCED CHC FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI
TONIGHT AS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS PUSH INTO THE MID TEENS. LARGE
SCALE DVM AND DRY AIRMASS TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE
EVENT AT MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

STILL NOT ABLE TO ESCAPE THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS YET ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL EXTEND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS PERIOD.
THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY TRENDED DOWN OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...AND NOW ARE NEAR THE 97TH PERCENTILES FOR THE COLDEST
HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THESE DATES. THE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AND
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. RETAINED SOME LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES FRIDAY WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN 15C AND 20C ALONG
WITH A REASONABLE LAKE FETCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. IN THE
INTERIM...EXPANDED THE TIMING OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THERMAL
THRESHOLDS WERE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL...SO KEPT A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EARLY AM PRECIP WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WELL NORTH OF
SFC FNTL ZONE THAT IS LAID OUT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ACTIVE
FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM ARKLATEX. DEEPEST SATURATION AND
LOWEST DOMINANT CIGS THIS AM...FM KFWA-KLAF SWD. WARM WETBULB
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS DOMINANT PTYPE...THOUGH PD OF
MIXED TRANSITION NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS PRECIP BEGINS
EWD ACCELERATION WITH SFC LOW PUSHING INTO SWRN PA BY 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 260850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
450 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 446 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION BY ABOUT MIDDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY END WITH A BIT OF SNOW...PRIMARILY IN FAR
NORTHEAST INDIANA...EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN...THOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM LITTLE TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 30S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAPIDLY INCREASING SFC PRESSURE FALLS OVER SWRN OH LIKELY
SIGNALING RAPID NERLY ENERGY TRANSFER ALONG FGEN BOUNDARY AS DEEP
POSI TILTED LATITUDINAL TROF WITH ACTIVE SRN PLAINS PVU FOLD
CONTS EWD PROGRESSION TODAY. NAM MODEL APPEARS OVERDONE IN
REGARDS TO INITIAL LOW LEVEL TW/DPS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SUCCINCT TW
COLLAPSE. FAVOR LATER ITERATIONS OF RAPID UPDATE CYCLES THAT HAVE
CONTD TO DELAY AND/OR SUGGEST MARGINAL TW PROFILES LATER THIS AM
FOR PD OF MIXED RASN AS PRECIP ENDS. STRONGEST MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS E-SE OF CWA BY 15 UTC. THIS WILL LEAVE A
RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY ACCUM...PRIMARILY
LT ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS IN NERN QUARTER CWA ON GRASSY
AREAS/RAISED DECKS...WITH GROUND/PAVEMENT TEMPS REMAINING AOA
FZG AND WET...TO FOSTER AS LEAST A CONCURRENT PARTIAL MELT.
MINIMAL THERMAL RECOVERY AS LOW LEVEL CAA DEEPENS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONTD TOKEN MENTION OF LK INDUCED CHC FLURRIES DOWNWIND OF LK MI
TONIGHT AS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS PUSH INTO THE MID TEENS. LARGE
SCALE DVM AND DRY AIRMASS TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE
EVENT AT MOST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

STILL NOT ABLE TO ESCAPE THE COLD WEATHER PATTERN AS YET ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED ANOMALOUSLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
TROF WILL EXTEND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS PERIOD.
THE HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES OF THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY TRENDED DOWN OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS...AND NOW ARE NEAR THE 97TH PERCENTILES FOR THE COLDEST
HIGHS AND LOWS FOR THESE DATES. THE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD AND
ARE SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF...ALONG WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES. RETAINED SOME LAKE EFFECT
FLURRIES FRIDAY WITH DELTA T VALUES BETWEEN 15C AND 20C ALONG
WITH A REASONABLE LAKE FETCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOW INVERSION
HEIGHTS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE HIGH ZONAL AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. IN THE
INTERIM...EXPANDED THE TIMING OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX FOR SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THERMAL
THRESHOLDS WERE STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL...SO KEPT A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EARLY AM PRECIP WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WELL NORTH OF
SFC FNTL ZONE THAT IS LAID OUT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ACTIVE
FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM ARKLATEX. DEEPEST SATURATION AND
LOWEST DOMINANT CIGS THIS AM...FM KFWA-KLAF SWD. WARM WETBULB
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS DOMINANT PTYPE...THOUGH PD OF
MIXED TRANSITION NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS PRECIP BEGINS
EWD ACCELERATION WITH SFC LOW PUSHING INTO SWRN PA BY 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIND 260824
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS RAPID REFRESH DEPICTS PRECIP
EXITING THE TAF SITES THEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 260824
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS RAPID REFRESH DEPICTS PRECIP
EXITING THE TAF SITES THEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 260824
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY. SOME
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 14Z AS RAPID REFRESH DEPICTS PRECIP
EXITING THE TAF SITES THEN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260727
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 260727
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
327 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

GFS SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH A FAVORABLE SHORT WAVE ALOFT...BRINGING THE FIRST PERIOD
OF SHOWERS TO CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE AND
RIDGING ALOFT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION...BRINGING DRY BUT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THOUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY AND PROVIDE YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TH
ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK AS A COLD FRONT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
ACROSS INDIANA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 260624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 260624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260624
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER THIS
MORNING WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST TODAY. WHILE THAT HAPPENS...HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH. THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND AS ITS CENTER MOVES
FROM THE UPPER LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HOOSIERS CAN EXPECT THREE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS TO CROSS OUR STATE.  THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BE SEPARATED BY AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE...BUT THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS WONT STAY OVER INDIANA FOR MORE THAN A DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE IS WHEN RAIN WILL END.

ALL THE MODELS AGREE IT WILL END RAPIDLY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS
AND MAV MOSTLY KILL IT AS SOON AS 12Z. THAT LOOKS TOO FAST
CONSIDERING NO OTHER MODEL...INCLUDING THE RAPID REFRESH AND RAP40 IS
SO QUICK. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...THE POPS FROM THE MET LOOK BEST
IN TERMS OF GETTING PRECIPITATION AFTER 12Z. THEY WILL NEED TO BE
SCALED DOWN RAPIDLY SO DRY WEATHER IS WIDELY ESTABLISHED BY 18Z.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...SNOW MAY DEVELOP BEFORE PRECIPITATION
ENDS. THIS IS IFFY CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID
30S WELL UPSTREAM AND THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE AMBIVALENT ABOUT SNOW
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. IN OTHER WORDS...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SNOW AND THE FORECASTS WILL REFLECT THAT.

IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION...TODAYS HIGHS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE TO
WHATEVER TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING AT 12Z. THE MAV SEEMS TO CAPTURE
THIS FAIRLY WELL. THE CONSHORT MODEL DID A DECENT JOB OF HANDLING
TEMPERATURE EVOLUTION YESTERDAY...AND WILL BE USED FOR THAT AGAIN

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 224 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

THE MAIN PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NAM. THE
GUIDANCE FROM THEM IS ALSO CLOSE AND LOOKS REASONABLE CONSIDERING
THE FORECAST AT 850. TO THE EXTENT THE MAV AND MET DIFFER...THE MAV
WILL BE USED. THIS IS BECAUSE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT ANOMALY...AND THE MAV SHOULD DEAL WITH ANOMALIES BETTER
DUE TO ITS LONGER DEVELOPMENT PERIOD.

STRATOCUMULUS MAY HANG ON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW
OVER THE EASTERN LAKES. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME FLURRIES TOMORROW
AS PRESSURES ON THE 1.5 ISENTROPIC SURFACE FROM BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS SHOW A STRONG WAVE COMING THROUGH. CLEARING IS APT TO ARRIVE
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260604
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
204 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EARLY AM PRECIP WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WELL NORTH OF
SFC FNTL ZONE THAT IS LAID OUT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ACTIVE
FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM ARKLATEX. DEEPEST SATURATION AND
LOWEST DOMINANT CIGS THIS AM...FM KFWA-KLAF SWD. WARM WETBULB
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS DOMINANT PTYPE...THOUGH PD OF
MIXED TRANSITION NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS PRECIP BEGINS
EWD ACCELERATION WITH SFC LOW PUSHING INTO SWRN PA BY 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 260604
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
204 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EARLY AM PRECIP WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WELL NORTH OF
SFC FNTL ZONE THAT IS LAID OUT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ACTIVE
FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM ARKLATEX. DEEPEST SATURATION AND
LOWEST DOMINANT CIGS THIS AM...FM KFWA-KLAF SWD. WARM WETBULB
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS DOMINANT PTYPE...THOUGH PD OF
MIXED TRANSITION NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS PRECIP BEGINS
EWD ACCELERATION WITH SFC LOW PUSHING INTO SWRN PA BY 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260604
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
204 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EARLY AM PRECIP WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WELL NORTH OF
SFC FNTL ZONE THAT IS LAID OUT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ACTIVE
FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM ARKLATEX. DEEPEST SATURATION AND
LOWEST DOMINANT CIGS THIS AM...FM KFWA-KLAF SWD. WARM WETBULB
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS DOMINANT PTYPE...THOUGH PD OF
MIXED TRANSITION NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS PRECIP BEGINS
EWD ACCELERATION WITH SFC LOW PUSHING INTO SWRN PA BY 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260604
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
204 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EARLY AM PRECIP WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WELL NORTH OF
SFC FNTL ZONE THAT IS LAID OUT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ACTIVE
FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM ARKLATEX. DEEPEST SATURATION AND
LOWEST DOMINANT CIGS THIS AM...FM KFWA-KLAF SWD. WARM WETBULB
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS DOMINANT PTYPE...THOUGH PD OF
MIXED TRANSITION NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS PRECIP BEGINS
EWD ACCELERATION WITH SFC LOW PUSHING INTO SWRN PA BY 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260604
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
204 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EARLY AM PRECIP WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WELL NORTH OF
SFC FNTL ZONE THAT IS LAID OUT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ACTIVE
FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM ARKLATEX. DEEPEST SATURATION AND
LOWEST DOMINANT CIGS THIS AM...FM KFWA-KLAF SWD. WARM WETBULB
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS DOMINANT PTYPE...THOUGH PD OF
MIXED TRANSITION NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS PRECIP BEGINS
EWD ACCELERATION WITH SFC LOW PUSHING INTO SWRN PA BY 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 260604
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
204 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

EARLY AM PRECIP WITHIN MID LEVEL DEFORMATION BAND WELL NORTH OF
SFC FNTL ZONE THAT IS LAID OUT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ACTIVE
FRONTAL WAVE LIFTING NEWD FROM ARKLATEX. DEEPEST SATURATION AND
LOWEST DOMINANT CIGS THIS AM...FM KFWA-KLAF SWD. WARM WETBULB
PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT RAIN AS DOMINANT PTYPE...THOUGH PD OF
MIXED TRANSITION NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK...AS PRECIP BEGINS
EWD ACCELERATION WITH SFC LOW PUSHING INTO SWRN PA BY 18 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 260456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260456
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1256 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD TAF SITES AROUND THU 06Z AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
SOUTHERN INDIANA.  CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR
WITH ONSET OF RAIN AS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROP.  ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH SOUTHERN INDIANA...SO WILL
NOT MENTION CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/03Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/03Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/03Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/03Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1011 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 260210
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 654 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 260210
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1010 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A FRONT ACROSS MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES ALONG
THE FRONT...SO CONTINUED HIGH POPS...WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE TONIGHT.
ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS AS NEEDED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.

BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ONLY
VERY LOW CAPE AT ANY LEVEL MAKING IT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...SO DO
NOT FEEL SEVERE WEATHER IS A THREAT. STORMS THAT CROSS THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH NO INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THOUGH AS MOISTURE WORKS
NORTH WITH THE WAVE. HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. CONTINUED WITH THE SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES. UPDATED GRIDS ARE OUT
BUT EARLIER ZFP STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 654 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH/50
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 252341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CLOUD DECK HAD DEVELOPED BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WAS HELPING UPSTREAM CIGS MOVE BACK
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. FLOW WILL VEER THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE
LOW CLOUDS MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF KSBN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN
WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARD KFWA AND THIS MAY HELP LOCK
CLOUDS IN. DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AT KSBN BUT
TRIED TO TREND CIGS UPWARD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BRING
IFR CIGS AND VIS TO KFWA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD.
TIMING BETWEEN ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND EXIT OF PCPN WILL BE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF IT REMAINS JUST A MIX OR CHANGES OVER
TO ALL SNOW AT KFWA. PCPN ENDS BY MID MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
HOLDING ON INTO AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 252341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CLOUD DECK HAD DEVELOPED BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WAS HELPING UPSTREAM CIGS MOVE BACK
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. FLOW WILL VEER THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE
LOW CLOUDS MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF KSBN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN
WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARD KFWA AND THIS MAY HELP LOCK
CLOUDS IN. DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AT KSBN BUT
TRIED TO TREND CIGS UPWARD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BRING
IFR CIGS AND VIS TO KFWA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD.
TIMING BETWEEN ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND EXIT OF PCPN WILL BE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF IT REMAINS JUST A MIX OR CHANGES OVER
TO ALL SNOW AT KFWA. PCPN ENDS BY MID MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
HOLDING ON INTO AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CLOUD DECK HAD DEVELOPED BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WAS HELPING UPSTREAM CIGS MOVE BACK
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. FLOW WILL VEER THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE
LOW CLOUDS MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF KSBN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN
WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARD KFWA AND THIS MAY HELP LOCK
CLOUDS IN. DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AT KSBN BUT
TRIED TO TREND CIGS UPWARD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BRING
IFR CIGS AND VIS TO KFWA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD.
TIMING BETWEEN ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND EXIT OF PCPN WILL BE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF IT REMAINS JUST A MIX OR CHANGES OVER
TO ALL SNOW AT KFWA. PCPN ENDS BY MID MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
HOLDING ON INTO AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 252341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND WILL
BRING RAIN TO ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. THE RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

SOME BREAKS IN MVFR CLOUD DECK HAD DEVELOPED BUT WEST TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THIS EVENING WAS HELPING UPSTREAM CIGS MOVE BACK
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. FLOW WILL VEER THIS EVENING AND COULD SEE
LOW CLOUDS MOVE JUST SOUTHEAST OF KSBN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RAIN
WILL BE SPREADING NORTHEAST TOWARD KFWA AND THIS MAY HELP LOCK
CLOUDS IN. DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO CIGS AT KSBN BUT
TRIED TO TREND CIGS UPWARD INTO THURSDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL BRING
IFR CIGS AND VIS TO KFWA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE ALONG BACK EDGE OF PCPN SHIELD.
TIMING BETWEEN ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR AND EXIT OF PCPN WILL BE
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING IF IT REMAINS JUST A MIX OR CHANGES OVER
TO ALL SNOW AT KFWA. PCPN ENDS BY MID MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS
HOLDING ON INTO AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 252328
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
728 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 654 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA WILL IMPACT TAF SITES TONIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO START SPREADING INTO TAF SITES AFTER THU 06Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD
START DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ANY TIME AFTER THAT AS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES DROP. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WERE NOT REACHED ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA TODAY...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME...BEST CHANCES WILL BE
SOUTH OF TAF SITES.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WON/T BE UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS RETURN.

WINDS WILL BE NORTH/NORWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UP TO 12 KTS
AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 252017
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 252017
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 252017
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
417 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/2100Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251944 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
343 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENT MID LVL DRY SLOT. 4MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING LATE AFTN/EVE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE. RETAINED OPTIMISTIC MIX OUT
TO VFR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BKN
MVFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING AT KFWA AS A FRONTAL
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SPREADS MORE PCPN IN. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD COOLER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING TOWARD MID MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS AS IF THE
BULK OF THE PCPN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PASS
JUST SSE OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 251944 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
343 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENT MID LVL DRY SLOT. 4MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING LATE AFTN/EVE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE. RETAINED OPTIMISTIC MIX OUT
TO VFR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BKN
MVFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING AT KFWA AS A FRONTAL
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SPREADS MORE PCPN IN. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD COOLER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING TOWARD MID MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS AS IF THE
BULK OF THE PCPN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PASS
JUST SSE OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA











000
FXUS63 KIWX 251944 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
343 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENT MID LVL DRY SLOT. 4MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING LATE AFTN/EVE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE. RETAINED OPTIMISTIC MIX OUT
TO VFR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BKN
MVFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING AT KFWA AS A FRONTAL
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SPREADS MORE PCPN IN. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD COOLER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING TOWARD MID MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS AS IF THE
BULK OF THE PCPN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PASS
JUST SSE OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 251944 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
343 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VIGOROUS LL CAA WING TO SWEEP SOUTH TO START THE PD THU NIGHT IN
ASSOCD/W AMPLIFYING SECONDARY TROUGH ACRS THE LAKES. AGAIN
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPS EXPECTED FRI-SAT BFR MODERATING BACK TWD
NORMAL EARLY NXT WEEK AS PATTN ALOFT FLATTENS AND SOME ASSEMBLANCE
OF TROUGHING DVLPS OUT ACRS THE NRN ROCKIES. HWVR PROGRESSION OF A
SERIES OF SRN STREAM SW TROUGH THEREAFTER IS MIRED IN UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN CONFLICTING MED RANGE SOLUTIONS ALOFT AND WILL HOLD SHY OF
BUCKING AGAIN GOING DRY FCST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENT MID LVL DRY SLOT. 4MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING LATE AFTN/EVE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE. RETAINED OPTIMISTIC MIX OUT
TO VFR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BKN
MVFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING AT KFWA AS A FRONTAL
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SPREADS MORE PCPN IN. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD COOLER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING TOWARD MID MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS AS IF THE
BULK OF THE PCPN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PASS
JUST SSE OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA











000
FXUS63 KIND 251935
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
























000
FXUS63 KIND 251935
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS























000
FXUS63 KIND 251935
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS























000
FXUS63 KIND 251935
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS
KENTUCKY AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRACKS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH TOWARDS
DAYBREAK AS COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH INTO OUR REGION.  ON THURSDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ON
TO THE EAST.

UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
FRIDAY.

IN THE LONG TERM...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE.  FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND SUNDAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE INDICATES LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
THE LOW CLOUDS TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING WHILE MID/HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE.  MODELS PRODUCE LITTLE OR NO RAIN THROUGH 03Z AND ONLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS TO ABOUT 06Z-08Z AND LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS AFTER THAT
ESPECIALLY AFTER THAT.

HPC INDICATES RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER ACROSS OUR
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND SPC INDICATES THUNDER AS WELL ACROSS OUR
SOUTH. EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 2/3 OF THE AMOUNT NEEDED TO
CAUSE FLOODING SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT INSTEAD INDICATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS OUR NORTH AS COLDER AIR SPREADS IN.
THE NAM MODEL IN BUFKIT INDICATES SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KLAF AND GRISSOM TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WILL MENTION MIXED PRECIPITATION
KOKOMO TO LAFAYETTE TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND ACROSS OUR ENTIRE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING.  HPC INDICATES 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR NORTH.  BUT WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL KEEP
ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN A HALF INCH.

FINALLY PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ON TO THE EAST.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES WENT CLOSE TO NAM SURFACE TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.  MODELS INDICATE SOME SUN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
40S OVER MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. MODELS
INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -13 CELSIUS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION MAY
PRODUCE LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FRIDAY.

LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S BOTH DAYS WHICH
IS CLOSE TO A MOS BLEND.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
























000
FXUS63 KIWX 251931
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OFF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND THEREFORE AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK.
SHARPENED SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY
AFTN SFC LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW CHC
POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID TEENS LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES INTO
NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS RATHER
ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR TROF
AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM TX EWD
THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENT MID LVL DRY SLOT. 4MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING LATE AFTN/EVE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE. RETAINED OPTIMISTIC MIX OUT
TO VFR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BKN
MVFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING AT KFWA AS A FRONTAL
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SPREADS MORE PCPN IN. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD COOLER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING TOWARD MID MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS AS IF THE
BULK OF THE PCPN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PASS
JUST SSE OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 251931
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON TIMING/AMOUNTS/PTYPE OF PCPN THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL WAVE TRACKS NE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY...

TEMPS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED TODAY THANKS TO LOW STRATUS THAT HAS
REMAINED LOCKED IN UNDER BRIEF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THIS
COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE SHOULD ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW LATER TONIGHT/THU AM...QUESTIONS ARE WHEN/WHERE/HOW
MUCH. SYNOPTICALLY...PHASING/APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SEPARATE PV ANOMALY EMERGING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP REORIENT ISOTHERMS ALONG THE
DEFORMATION AXIS...AND THEREFORE TIGHTEN/DEEPEN THE LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INTO OH/IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS TIGHTENING OFF THE THERMAL FIELD WILL NO DOUBT
STRENGTHEN A GREAT LAKES UPPER JET STREAK...WITH THE LOCAL AREA
PLACED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE BY THIS TIME.
MODELS AGREE FOR THE MOST PART ON ALL BUT FAR NW ZONES GETTING
INTO THE 750-600 MB PORTION OF THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION...WITH
MOISTURE (PER 3-4 G/KG PUSH ON 290K CHARTS) APPEARING SUFFICIENT
FOR A DECENT BURST OF PCPN. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT OFF ON THE
NW FRINGE WHICH UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE OVER OR JUST SE OF THE
SOUTH BEND/ELKHART AREA MAKING FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE POP/QPF
FORECAST HERE. LOOKS LIKE A SLAM DRUNK ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES WHERE CATEGORICAL POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS UP TO NEAR A HALF
INCH WERE RETAINED (ALTHOUGH CONVECTION INTO THE WESTERN OH VALLEY
COULD LIMIT NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND THEREFORE AMOUNTS A BIT)

AS FOR PTYPE...PCPN WILL BEGIN AS RAIN ALONG THE INITIAL/NARROW FGEN
BAND INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT...THEN LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
LATER TONIGHT/THU AM AS DEEPER LIFT/COOLING WORKS IN. MODELED WET
BULB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST 2KFT FEET MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW
MAKING FOR A DIFFICULT PTYPE FCST (OPTED FOR MIX WORDING AS A
RESULT). ALSO ADDED IN SOME LIGHT ACCUMS (LOW CONFIDENCE
...DUSTING-1") ALONG/SE OF A MONTICELLO-WARSAW-HILLSDALE
LINE...ALTHOUGH WPC 1-3" AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IF A QUICKER/FULL
CHANGEOVER OCCURS. COOL/DRY OTHERWISE IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK.
SHARPENED SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY
AFTN SFC LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM
CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED LOW
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW CHC
POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID TEENS LK/8H
DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON DURING THE DAY
ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES INTO
NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS RATHER
ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR TROF
AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM TX EWD
THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENT MID LVL DRY SLOT. 4MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING LATE AFTN/EVE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE. RETAINED OPTIMISTIC MIX OUT
TO VFR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BKN
MVFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING AT KFWA AS A FRONTAL
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SPREADS MORE PCPN IN. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD COOLER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING TOWARD MID MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS AS IF THE
BULK OF THE PCPN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PASS
JUST SSE OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 251847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





















000
FXUS63 KIND 251847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




















000
FXUS63 KIND 251847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





















000
FXUS63 KIND 251847
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

12Z ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES BY EARLY TO MID WEEK OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE
ALL TOO FAMILIAR WESTERN RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH DUO DEPARTING IN
FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW.

THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF COOL AND DRY SATURDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE
GULF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS SETUP WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMING TEMPERATURES BUT CHANCES OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT PER
THE REGIONAL BLEND. THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH
GENERALLY UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL BE APPROACHING
MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES. COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S BY TUESDAY PER REGIONAL BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




















000
FXUS63 KIWX 251642
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1242 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENT MID LVL DRY SLOT. 4MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING LATE AFTN/EVE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE. RETAINED OPTIMISTIC MIX OUT
TO VFR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BKN
MVFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING AT KFWA AS A FRONTAL
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SPREADS MORE PCPN IN. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD COOLER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING TOWARD MID MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS AS IF THE
BULK OF THE PCPN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PASS
JUST SSE OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 251642
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1242 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

EXTENSIVE IFR TO LOW MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON UNDER SUBSIDENT MID LVL DRY SLOT. 4MB/3HR PRESSURE
RISES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING LATE AFTN/EVE AS GRADIENT
RELAXES NEAR TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE. RETAINED OPTIMISTIC MIX OUT
TO VFR THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A BKN
MVFR STRATOCU DECK REMAINS LOCKED IN. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TO
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/THU MORNING AT KFWA AS A FRONTAL
WAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SPREADS MORE PCPN IN. 12Z
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND TOWARD COOLER THERMAL PROFILES WITH
RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE WET
SNOW BEFORE ENDING TOWARD MID MORNING. ATTM IT APPEARS AS IF THE
BULK OF THE PCPN AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD PASS
JUST SSE OF KSBN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 251629
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS


















000
FXUS63 KIND 251629
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1230 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR 19Z-20Z. A COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THEN...A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE WAVE
ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
ALL BUT LAF AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. BMG COULD EVEN SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN...IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN ON PUTTING THAT IN THE TAFS UNTIL IT GETS
CLOSER...SO TIMING CAN BE PINNED DOWN BETTER. LAF ON THE OTHER
HAND...MAY ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE OUT AFTER 12Z.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SWITCH TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING AT LAF...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION SNOW THERE AT THIS TIME.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 16Z TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL VEER FROM WEST TO NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE GUSTS SHOULD END
AT IND AND BMG EARLY TODAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST TO THE
APPALACHIANS...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT TO UP TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE WAVE MOVING PAST.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

















000
FXUS63 KIWX 251541
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1141 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BACK EDGE OF LARGE RAIN BAND SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TRAILS NERN
IL LOW AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS
MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN WITH MVFR OR PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT FWA WHILE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF SBN WITH CONTD VFR CONDITIONS FCST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251541
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1141 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BACK EDGE OF LARGE RAIN BAND SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TRAILS NERN
IL LOW AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS
MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN WITH MVFR OR PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT FWA WHILE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF SBN WITH CONTD VFR CONDITIONS FCST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251541
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1141 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BACK EDGE OF LARGE RAIN BAND SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TRAILS NERN
IL LOW AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS
MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN WITH MVFR OR PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT FWA WHILE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF SBN WITH CONTD VFR CONDITIONS FCST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251541
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1141 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR THE REST OF TODAY WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
AS SKIES REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEASTERN
INDIANA. TONIGHT A LOW WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MAINLY
RAIN IN THE REGION WITH FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
HAVING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 40S
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BACK EDGE OF LARGE RAIN BAND SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TRAILS NERN
IL LOW AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS
MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN WITH MVFR OR PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT FWA WHILE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF SBN WITH CONTD VFR CONDITIONS FCST.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 251429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AROUND LONGER...UNTIL 18Z PER OB
TRENDS AND MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS. THE...WILL GO WITH VFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20
KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 251429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AROUND LONGER...UNTIL 18Z PER OB
TRENDS AND MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS. THE...WILL GO WITH VFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20
KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 251429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AROUND LONGER...UNTIL 18Z PER OB
TRENDS AND MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS. THE...WILL GO WITH VFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20
KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 251429
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

UPDATED TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS AROUND LONGER...UNTIL 18Z PER OB
TRENDS AND MODEL RH TIME SECTIONS. THE...WILL GO WITH VFR. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO NEAR 20
KNOTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS














000
FXUS63 KIND 251407
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 251407
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TODAY HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND WILL STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY PER MODELS.  RAIN SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OFF WELL TO
THE EAST...BUT SATELLITE INDICATES LOTS OF POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WERE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK UP BY LATE AFTERNOON. I EXPECT IT TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN PARTLY CLOUDY BY LATE AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THAT COLD ADVECTION WAS ALREADY OCCURRING AND CLOUDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WILL LEAVE THE SOUTH
UNCHANGED AS THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SUN THERE AND THEY WILL
ALSO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT.

IT LOOKS LIKE HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
SECTIONS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIWX 251050
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL END ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT
TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BACK EDGE OF LARGE RAIN BAND SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TRAILS NERN
IL LOW AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS
MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN WITH MVFR OR PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT FWA WHILE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF SBN WITH CONTD VFR CONDITIONS FCST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 251050
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL END ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT
TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BACK EDGE OF LARGE RAIN BAND SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TRAILS NERN
IL LOW AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS
MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN WITH MVFR OR PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT FWA WHILE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF SBN WITH CONTD VFR CONDITIONS FCST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 251050
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL END ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT
TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BACK EDGE OF LARGE RAIN BAND SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TRAILS NERN
IL LOW AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS
MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN WITH MVFR OR PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT FWA WHILE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF SBN WITH CONTD VFR CONDITIONS FCST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 251050
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL END ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
MORNING...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL STALL OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG IT
TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN TO SPREAD BACK INTO AT LEAST SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPS
ACROSS NE PORTION OF THE CWA STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BLO FREEZING AS
THE RAIN MOVES IN BUT HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING. AMDAR SOUNDING OUT
OF FWA INDICATED A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER WITH LOW LEVEL VEERING
WIND PROFILE SUGGESTIVE OF STRONG WAA... SO EXPECT ANY FREEZING
RAIN IN THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE BRIEF AND ONLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES GIVEN RELATIVELY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. BAND OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE OUT OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTN. WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
IS QUITE STRONG WHILE CAA BEHIND IT EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WK...
SO TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN YDAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S... EXCEPT ONLY IN THE 40S ALONG THE MICHIGAN
LAKESHORE WITH SW-W WINDS LIMITING THE WARMUP THERE. CDFNT MOVG
THROUGH OUR AREA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE OH
VALLEY THIS AFTN AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV MOVG SE
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES. ACCOMPANYING SFC WAVE MOVG UP THE OH VALLEY
TONIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPR LEVEL DIVERGENCE MOVG ACROSS OUR
AREA IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING GRTLKS JET STREAK
JET SHOULD RESULT IN PRECIP MOVG BACK INTO AT LEAST SRN PORTION
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. GFS SUGGESTS WAVE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER
WITH STRONGER CAA AS IT PASSES THAN THE NAM... SUGGESTING NRN
EDGE OF THE PRECIP COULD BE SNOW LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW SIDED WITH
THE WEAKER NAM SOLUTION AND MAINTAINED JUST RAIN IN OUR FCST WITH
LOWS IN THE M/U30S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

LONGWAVE TROF IN EAST/RIDGING WESTERN STATES FOR MUCH OF LONG
TERM...FAVORING WELL BLO NORMAL INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK. SHARPENED
SERN/NWRN POP GRADIENT WRT EXITING RAFL THU AM. BY ERLY AFTN SFC
LOW INTO SWRN PA TO EFFECTIVELY LIGATE/SHUNT EWD WARM CONVEYOR
BELT MOISTURE FEED. THEREAFTER...PROLONGED DEEP LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH LATTER PART OF WEEK AS NORTH CENTRAL CANADA
SOURCED ARCTIC RIDGE PLUNGES INTO WRN GRTLKS BY SAT. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENT/DRY AIRMASS WITH PWAT GRADUALLY FALLING TO AROUND 0.10
INCHES INTO FRIDAY. CONTD THU NIGHT CHC FLURRIES AMID POS TILTED
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVG INTO WRN GRTLKS. HAVE TERMINATED LOW
CHC POPS FRI...THOUGH ACQUIESCE TO CHC FLURRIES FRI AMID MID
TEENS LK/8H DIFFERENTIALS WITH POTNL OFF BOTH LKS MI AND HURON
DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH MODESTLY CYCLONIC 925-8H FLOW.

NEXT STRONG NRN STREAM SYSTEM WITH 150-200M/12 HR FALLS MOVES
INTO NRN GRTLKS SUN. RETURN MOISTURE FLOW INADVOF SYSTEM APPEARS
RATHER ANEMIC. CONTD LOW END SHRA POPS. FEW CHNGS FROM BLEND
THEREAFTER...SAVE FOR DY5/7 RAISED MAX TEMPS SWRLY RETURN
FLOW...CLOSER TO EC ENSEMBLE MEAN. STILL BLO NORMAL SUN...CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY DY7/8 AS PATTERN BECOMES SOMEWHAT IN FLUX FLATTER/OR
TROF AXIS SHUNTS EWD...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GREATER TSRA FOCUS FM
TX EWD THROUGH GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BACK EDGE OF LARGE RAIN BAND SHOULD LIFT NE OF THE TERMINALS BY
12Z. LARGE AREA OF STRATUS WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TRAILS NERN
IL LOW AND SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTN AS DRIER AIR IN LOW LEVELS
MOVES IN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT CAUSING RAIN WITH MVFR OR PSBLY IFR
CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AT FWA WHILE PRECIP SHIELD LIKELY
WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF SBN WITH CONTD VFR CONDITIONS FCST.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 251016
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
616 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH ALL THE MODELS PUSHING PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST BY
12Z...THE MAIN ISSUE BECOMES TEMPERATURES.

THESE WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MOS TO SMOOTH THINGS
WITH LARGE GRADIENTS...BASING THE FORECAST ON A DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE. THE CONSHORT MODEL WILL BE USED BECAUSE IT
IS NORMALLY THE MOST ROBUST.

BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE RAIN NOW OVER THE AREA...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251016
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
616 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH ALL THE MODELS PUSHING PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST BY
12Z...THE MAIN ISSUE BECOMES TEMPERATURES.

THESE WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MOS TO SMOOTH THINGS
WITH LARGE GRADIENTS...BASING THE FORECAST ON A DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE. THE CONSHORT MODEL WILL BE USED BECAUSE IT
IS NORMALLY THE MOST ROBUST.

BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE RAIN NOW OVER THE AREA...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 251016
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
616 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH ALL THE MODELS PUSHING PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST BY
12Z...THE MAIN ISSUE BECOMES TEMPERATURES.

THESE WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MOS TO SMOOTH THINGS
WITH LARGE GRADIENTS...BASING THE FORECAST ON A DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE. THE CONSHORT MODEL WILL BE USED BECAUSE IT
IS NORMALLY THE MOST ROBUST.

BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE RAIN NOW OVER THE AREA...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251016
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
616 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH ALL THE MODELS PUSHING PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST BY
12Z...THE MAIN ISSUE BECOMES TEMPERATURES.

THESE WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MOS TO SMOOTH THINGS
WITH LARGE GRADIENTS...BASING THE FORECAST ON A DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE. THE CONSHORT MODEL WILL BE USED BECAUSE IT
IS NORMALLY THE MOST ROBUST.

BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE RAIN NOW OVER THE AREA...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.

A WARM FRONT HAS PUSHES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ALLOWING A SW FLOW
OF WARMER AND DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 50 THIS MORNING WHICH WILL RESULT IN
BKN MVFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR AS HEATING RESUMES. BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 70S AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES AND
CLOUDS MAY BECOME SCT AT VFR HEIGHTS.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A RETURN
OF MVFR OR WORSE CIGS ALONG WITH MORE SHRA. GOOD MOISTURE AND
FORCING APPEARS AVAILABLE AS THE VIGOROUS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
PASSES ALOFT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH ALL THE MODELS PUSHING PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST BY
12Z...THE MAIN ISSUE BECOMES TEMPERATURES.

THESE WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MOS TO SMOOTH THINGS
WITH LARGE GRADIENTS...BASING THE FORECAST ON A DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE. THE CONSHORT MODEL WILL BE USED BECAUSE IT
IS NORMALLY THE MOST ROBUST.

BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE RAIN NOW OVER THE AREA...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

BASED UPON RECENT RADAR TREND HAVE ENDING THE TSRA AND SHRA AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT 90 MINUTES AS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES
QUITE SOON.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS FOUND UPSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z-
14Z...BEFORE HEATING ALLOWS FOR VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER INTO TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE DETERIORATION TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER WED 09Z AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DECREASE. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AFTER
WED 06Z.  TOMORROW NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 250832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH ALL THE MODELS PUSHING PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST BY
12Z...THE MAIN ISSUE BECOMES TEMPERATURES.

THESE WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MOS TO SMOOTH THINGS
WITH LARGE GRADIENTS...BASING THE FORECAST ON A DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE. THE CONSHORT MODEL WILL BE USED BECAUSE IT
IS NORMALLY THE MOST ROBUST.

BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE RAIN NOW OVER THE AREA...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

BASED UPON RECENT RADAR TREND HAVE ENDING THE TSRA AND SHRA AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT 90 MINUTES AS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES
QUITE SOON.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS FOUND UPSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z-
14Z...BEFORE HEATING ALLOWS FOR VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER INTO TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE DETERIORATION TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER WED 09Z AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DECREASE. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AFTER
WED 06Z.  TOMORROW NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 250832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH ALL THE MODELS PUSHING PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST BY
12Z...THE MAIN ISSUE BECOMES TEMPERATURES.

THESE WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MOS TO SMOOTH THINGS
WITH LARGE GRADIENTS...BASING THE FORECAST ON A DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE. THE CONSHORT MODEL WILL BE USED BECAUSE IT
IS NORMALLY THE MOST ROBUST.

BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE RAIN NOW OVER THE AREA...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

BASED UPON RECENT RADAR TREND HAVE ENDING THE TSRA AND SHRA AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT 90 MINUTES AS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES
QUITE SOON.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS FOUND UPSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z-
14Z...BEFORE HEATING ALLOWS FOR VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER INTO TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE DETERIORATION TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER WED 09Z AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DECREASE. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AFTER
WED 06Z.  TOMORROW NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 250832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS INDIANA TODAY. OVERNIGHT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT HEADS OFF THE EAST.

FRIDAY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN AND DOMINATE HOOSIER
WEATHER INTO SUNDAY. NEXT...LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE BY. AS MONDAY GOES ON...MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS
PREDICTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

WITH ALL THE MODELS PUSHING PRECIPITATION OFF TO THE EAST BY
12Z...THE MAIN ISSUE BECOMES TEMPERATURES.

THESE WILL BE EXTREMELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
BOUNDARIES OVER AREA. GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF MOS TO SMOOTH THINGS
WITH LARGE GRADIENTS...BASING THE FORECAST ON A DETERMINISTIC MODEL
SEEMS MORE APPROPRIATE. THE CONSHORT MODEL WILL BE USED BECAUSE IT
IS NORMALLY THE MOST ROBUST.

BASED ON WHAT IS UPSTREAM BEHIND THE RAIN NOW OVER THE AREA...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE MOST DIFFICULT PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES.

THE MODELS CONCUR ABOUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. GRADIENTS ARE GOING TO BE TIGHT. A
TIMING ERROR OF A FEW HOURS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE.

THIS RELATIVELY UNUSUAL SITUATION IS NOT THE SORT OF THING MOS IS
BEST AT. SOMETHING FROM A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODELS IS APT TO BE
BETTER. GIVEN CONSHORT IS A GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL IT WILL BE USED.

AFTER THURSDAY TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WILL WEAKEN AND NORMAL DIURNAL
PATTERNS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED. THIS IS WHERE MOS COMES INTO ITS
OWN. THE MAV WILL BE USED BECAUSE OF ITS LONGER TRAINING PERIOD.

ALL THE GUIDANCE POINTS TO RAIN TONIGHT...ENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY...AND THEN A DRY PERIOD. CLOUDS ARE APT TO HANG
ON AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AS WE RETAIN A SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN LAKES.

CAPES ARE JUST HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FORECAST
TONIGHT. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THANKS
TO PROXIMITY TO THE WELL DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW WHILE A RATHER STRONG
WAVE PASSES ALOFT.

THICKNESS PATTERNS THURSDAY SUGGEST THE RACE WILL BE ON WHETHER THE
PRECIPITATION WILL END BEFORE IT CHANGES TO SNOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

ECMWF AND GFS DEPICT COOL HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTING ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THUS
WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR SOME SHRA WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER ANY PRECIP AMOUNT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIGHT AS
GULF FLOW OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH FAILS TO DEVELOP
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS
SUGGEST A WARM FRONT APPROACHING AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS. OVERALL SUPERBLEND HANDLES THE TEMPS OK AND NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE THERE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

BASED UPON RECENT RADAR TREND HAVE ENDING THE TSRA AND SHRA AT
MOST OF THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT 90 MINUTES AS THE BACK EDGE
OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF ALL THE TAF SITES
QUITE SOON.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF MVFR CIGS FOUND UPSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z-
14Z...BEFORE HEATING ALLOWS FOR VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/06Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1251 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FARTHER INTO TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VALLEY. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY AT THIS TIME...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE DETERIORATION TO MVFR CATEGORY AFTER WED 09Z AS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DECREASE. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING. EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 12 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AFTER
WED 06Z.  TOMORROW NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS A
SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities