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000
FXUS63 KIWX 201758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CONTINUED FOCUS
ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY ORIENTED LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN AXIS OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
750-1200 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT LEAST A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF
INSOLATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW ABOVE INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE TO BE REALIZED. WEAK CIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH EVENTUAL APPROACH OF
UPPER WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ANY WEAK CIN SHOULD BE ERODED
ACROSS THE WEST. WITH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MAINLY LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
TO BE INSTABILITY. STILL EXPECTING RISK TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE GIVEN LOWER END INSTABILITY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VIGOROUS LEAD SW TROUGH ACRS ERN ND IN ASSOCN W/LARGER SCALE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD OUT OF ALBERTA SIGNALS
SIGNIFICANT HGT AMPLIFICATION ALOFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SUNDAY. PREFNTL WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCN/W LEAD DISTURBANCE ACTING UPON
A FVRBL RTN FLW LL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING FM NERN NE
NEWD INTO SERN MN. HWVR XPC THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECAY RATHER ABRUPTLY
EWD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

PRIMARY SHRT TERM DIFFICULTY IS ACCESSING TEMPORAL EXTENT OF
PROBABLY CONVN LTR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. 12Z GUIDANCE SIMILAR IN
SCOPE W/NARROWING EWD ADVTN OF PLAINS THETA-E PLUME. HIGHRES DETAILS
PER WIND SHIFT TIMING SUGGEST LTL THUNDER THREAT WILL CARRY EWD OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS LL THETA-E RIDGE PINCHES OFF W/NEWD EXTENT AND
HAVE CUT LT AFTN/EVE POP EXTENT ACRS FAR SE FURTHER. OTRWS GIST OF
PREV FCST HOLD YET DID ADD FURTHER TEMPORAL DETAIL BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF PREFERRED HIGHRES GUIDANCE CLUSTERING. CONDITIONAL SVR
THREAT PREDICATED ON ATTAINING SUFFICIENT SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION
LT THIS AFTN W/AREAS WEST OF I-69 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30
IN BEST OVERLAP OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND GREATER MODEL IMPLIED HEATING.
REGARDLESS DAMAGING WIND THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLD AT BEST.

SFC CDFNT FOLLOWS BUT IN LIGHT OF DIGGING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE SLWR
TIMING TWD DAYBREAK SUN...IT APPEARS QUITE UNFVRBL FOR ADDNL SHRA OR
TSRA UNTIL LTR SUN AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WAS WELL DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ENTERING
SASKATCHEWAN AND DROPPING RAPIDLY SE. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY AS 12Z SUNDAY
WITH PEAK DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE 17 TO 20Z TIME FRAME.
POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS -16 TO -20 C DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE) WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE WITH TIMING ALSO IN
FAVORABLE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. WHILE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE BEEN GUTTED...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS (THUNDER??) LOOKING MORE LIKELY SUN MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS NE HALF BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY FOR NOW.

COLDEST AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND REMAINS
PARKED THERE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIKELY TRANQUIL WRAP UP TO SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL RATHER BLEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO TSRA MENTION AT KSBN FROM 21Z TO 00Z.
EASTWARD EXTENT OF INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR
THUNDER BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER FORCING...PROSPECTS OF THUNDER
AT KFWA APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR THIS EVENING. WITH STILL SOME
LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO VCTS THIS EVENING AT
KFWA...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION.
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO DROP INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE PROSPECTS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WEST
WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY IN NATURE TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 201758
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CONTINUED FOCUS
ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY ORIENTED LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN AXIS OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
750-1200 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT LEAST A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF
INSOLATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW ABOVE INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE TO BE REALIZED. WEAK CIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH EVENTUAL APPROACH OF
UPPER WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ANY WEAK CIN SHOULD BE ERODED
ACROSS THE WEST. WITH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MAINLY LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
TO BE INSTABILITY. STILL EXPECTING RISK TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE GIVEN LOWER END INSTABILITY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VIGOROUS LEAD SW TROUGH ACRS ERN ND IN ASSOCN W/LARGER SCALE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD OUT OF ALBERTA SIGNALS
SIGNIFICANT HGT AMPLIFICATION ALOFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SUNDAY. PREFNTL WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCN/W LEAD DISTURBANCE ACTING UPON
A FVRBL RTN FLW LL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING FM NERN NE
NEWD INTO SERN MN. HWVR XPC THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECAY RATHER ABRUPTLY
EWD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

PRIMARY SHRT TERM DIFFICULTY IS ACCESSING TEMPORAL EXTENT OF
PROBABLY CONVN LTR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. 12Z GUIDANCE SIMILAR IN
SCOPE W/NARROWING EWD ADVTN OF PLAINS THETA-E PLUME. HIGHRES DETAILS
PER WIND SHIFT TIMING SUGGEST LTL THUNDER THREAT WILL CARRY EWD OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS LL THETA-E RIDGE PINCHES OFF W/NEWD EXTENT AND
HAVE CUT LT AFTN/EVE POP EXTENT ACRS FAR SE FURTHER. OTRWS GIST OF
PREV FCST HOLD YET DID ADD FURTHER TEMPORAL DETAIL BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF PREFERRED HIGHRES GUIDANCE CLUSTERING. CONDITIONAL SVR
THREAT PREDICATED ON ATTAINING SUFFICIENT SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION
LT THIS AFTN W/AREAS WEST OF I-69 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30
IN BEST OVERLAP OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND GREATER MODEL IMPLIED HEATING.
REGARDLESS DAMAGING WIND THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLD AT BEST.

SFC CDFNT FOLLOWS BUT IN LIGHT OF DIGGING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE SLWR
TIMING TWD DAYBREAK SUN...IT APPEARS QUITE UNFVRBL FOR ADDNL SHRA OR
TSRA UNTIL LTR SUN AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WAS WELL DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ENTERING
SASKATCHEWAN AND DROPPING RAPIDLY SE. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY AS 12Z SUNDAY
WITH PEAK DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE 17 TO 20Z TIME FRAME.
POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS -16 TO -20 C DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE) WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE WITH TIMING ALSO IN
FAVORABLE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. WHILE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE BEEN GUTTED...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS (THUNDER??) LOOKING MORE LIKELY SUN MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS NE HALF BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY FOR NOW.

COLDEST AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND REMAINS
PARKED THERE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIKELY TRANQUIL WRAP UP TO SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL RATHER BLEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...JUST DOWNSTREAM OF A WELL PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
ACROSS EASTERN IOWA. PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS SHOULD SHIFT INTO NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPAND ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND
HAVE INTRODUCED TEMPO TSRA MENTION AT KSBN FROM 21Z TO 00Z.
EASTWARD EXTENT OF INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE QUESTIONABLE FOR
THUNDER BUT GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER FORCING...PROSPECTS OF THUNDER
AT KFWA APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR THIS EVENING. WITH STILL SOME
LOWER CONFIDENCE HOW INSTABILITY FIELDS WILL EVOLVE THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVE LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO VCTS THIS EVENING AT
KFWA...BUT WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION.
SECONDARY UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO DROP INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT KEEPING THE PROSPECTS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING. WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST
EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WEST
WINDS BECOMING MORE GUSTY IN NATURE TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST
VALID PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIND 201745
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD
AND ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA ON SUNDAY MORNING
AND TAKE ANY RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEW POINTS HAD
CLIMBED INTO THE 60S. RADAR MOSAICS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME RETURNS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WISCONSIN AND IOWA. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING
HIGH CLOUD STEAMING ACROSS THE STATE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS. GFS AND NAM BOTH
SUGGEST A THIN BAND OF HIGH RH PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AGAIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL TO SHOW
COMPLETE DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO SHOW A NOTEWORTHY AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AS PWATS RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. ALOFT A MODERATE TROUGH
WILL BE WORKING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AS LIFTED
INDICES FAIL TO GET GREATER THAN -5...BUT NONETHELESS FORECAST
SOUNDING LAPSE RATES APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH TO SUGGEST ISOLATED
THUNDER. THUS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT
FROM RUN TO RUN...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT CONTINUES TO
GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 00Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE FORCING IS BETTER. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ONLY CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LARGE...EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS RESULTING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...DRYING OUT
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SHOWING UNATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THUS WILL AIM FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY SUNNY NIGHTS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS ONLY BY TUESDAY THAT THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...ALLOWING A MORE EASTERLY
OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED AMID THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND LOWS AT OR
BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL A BLEND WILL
WORK NICELY WITH A SLOW WARNING TREND BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WILL
NOTE HERE THAT MAVMOS HIGHS ON SUNDAY APPEAR A BIT WARM WITH
EXPECTED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY.
ENSEMBLES AGREE...INDICATING VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SOME CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 WITH HIGHER LAYERS ABOVE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS
FROM 210-230 DEGREES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 6-9 KTS AFTER DARK.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET. MODEL DATA INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS EVENING...
AND 850MB FLOW AROUND 30 KTS IS PROGGED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
WELL. THIS SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE BEST
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 210100Z-210900Z. BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE HEAVIER CELLS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 201745
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARD
AND ACROSS INDIANA TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH SOUTHEAST OF INDIANA ON SUNDAY MORNING
AND TAKE ANY RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO INDIANA FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO CENTRAL IOWA AND NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS. A WARMER AND MORE HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WAS IN PLACE
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEW POINTS HAD
CLIMBED INTO THE 60S. RADAR MOSAICS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME RETURNS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN WISCONSIN AND IOWA. SATELLITE ALSO SHOWING
HIGH CLOUD STEAMING ACROSS THE STATE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE POPS. GFS AND NAM BOTH
SUGGEST A THIN BAND OF HIGH RH PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AGAIN FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAIL TO SHOW
COMPLETE DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO SHOW A NOTEWORTHY AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AS PWATS RISE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES. ALOFT A MODERATE TROUGH
WILL BE WORKING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...SLIDING EAST SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. INSTABILITY APPEARS MARGINAL AS LIFTED
INDICES FAIL TO GET GREATER THAN -5...BUT NONETHELESS FORECAST
SOUNDING LAPSE RATES APPEAR STEEP ENOUGH TO SUGGEST ISOLATED
THUNDER. THUS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY CONSISTENT
FROM RUN TO RUN...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT PRECIP EVENT CONTINUES TO
GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AFTER 00Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE FORCING IS BETTER. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ONLY CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE TEMPS. IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. LARGE...EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS RESULTING DRY WEATHER TO CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS...DRYING OUT
DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH SHOWING UNATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY. THUS WILL AIM FOR MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS AND MOSTLY SUNNY NIGHTS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS ONLY BY TUESDAY THAT THE SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...ALLOWING A MORE EASTERLY
OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED AMID THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TREND LOWS AT OR
BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS. AS FOR HIGHS WILL A BLEND WILL
WORK NICELY WITH A SLOW WARNING TREND BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. WILL
NOTE HERE THAT MAVMOS HIGHS ON SUNDAY APPEAR A BIT WARM WITH
EXPECTED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS LOCALLY.
ENSEMBLES AGREE...INDICATING VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SOME CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 WITH HIGHER LAYERS ABOVE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS
FROM 210-230 DEGREES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 6-9 KTS AFTER DARK.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET. MODEL DATA INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS EVENING...
AND 850MB FLOW AROUND 30 KTS IS PROGGED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
WELL. THIS SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE BEST
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 210100Z-210900Z. BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE HEAVIER CELLS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 201635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COOL FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. HIGHER
DEW POINTS HAVE ARRIVED IN THE AREA...REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING NEAR 00Z.
ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
HE AFTERNOON WITH CHCS FOR POPS ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE FAILURE OF
YESTERDAY/S PERSISTENCE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SOME CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 WITH HIGHER LAYERS ABOVE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS
FROM 210-230 DEGREES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 6-9 KTS AFTER DARK.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET. MODEL DATA INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS EVENING...
AND 850MB FLOW AROUND 30 KTS IS PROGGED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
WELL. THIS SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE BEST
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 210100Z-210900Z. BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE HEAVIER CELLS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 201635
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1232 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COOL FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. HIGHER
DEW POINTS HAVE ARRIVED IN THE AREA...REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING NEAR 00Z.
ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
HE AFTERNOON WITH CHCS FOR POPS ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE FAILURE OF
YESTERDAY/S PERSISTENCE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SOME CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 WITH HIGHER LAYERS ABOVE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OCCASIONAL SURFACE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS
FROM 210-230 DEGREES EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 6-9 KTS AFTER DARK.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET. MODEL DATA INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BECOMES
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY LATE THIS EVENING...
AND 850MB FLOW AROUND 30 KTS IS PROGGED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE AS
WELL. THIS SUGGESTS GOOD POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AT AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. THE BEST
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE IN THE 210100Z-210900Z. BRIEF IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY SHIFTING WINDS POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR THE HEAVIER CELLS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 201607
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1207 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CONTINUED FOCUS
ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY ORIENTED LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN AXIS OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
750-1200 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT LEAST A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF
INSOLATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW ABOVE INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE TO BE REALIZED. WEAK CIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH EVENTUAL APPROACH OF
UPPER WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ANY WEAK CIN SHOULD BE ERODED
ACROSS THE WEST. WITH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MAINLY LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
TO BE INSTABILITY. STILL EXPECTING RISK TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE GIVEN LOWER END INSTABILITY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VIGOROUS LEAD SW TROUGH ACRS ERN ND IN ASSOCN W/LARGER SCALE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD OUT OF ALBERTA SIGNALS
SIGNIFICANT HGT AMPLIFICATION ALOFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SUNDAY. PREFNTL WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCN/W LEAD DISTURBANCE ACTING UPON
A FVRBL RTN FLW LL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING FM NERN NE
NEWD INTO SERN MN. HWVR XPC THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECAY RATHER ABRUPTLY
EWD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

PRIMARY SHRT TERM DIFFICULTY IS ACCESSING TEMPORAL EXTENT OF
PROBABLY CONVN LTR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. 12Z GUIDANCE SIMILAR IN
SCOPE W/NARROWING EWD ADVTN OF PLAINS THETA-E PLUME. HIGHRES DETAILS
PER WIND SHIFT TIMING SUGGEST LTL THUNDER THREAT WILL CARRY EWD OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS LL THETA-E RIDGE PINCHES OFF W/NEWD EXTENT AND
HAVE CUT LT AFTN/EVE POP EXTENT ACRS FAR SE FURTHER. OTRWS GIST OF
PREV FCST HOLD YET DID ADD FURTHER TEMPORAL DETAIL BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF PREFERRED HIGHRES GUIDANCE CLUSTERING. CONDITIONAL SVR
THREAT PREDICATED ON ATTAINING SUFFICIENT SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION
LT THIS AFTN W/AREAS WEST OF I-69 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30
IN BEST OVERLAP OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND GREATER MODEL IMPLIED HEATING.
REGARDLESS DAMAGING WIND THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLD AT BEST.

SFC CDFNT FOLLOWS BUT IN LIGHT OF DIGGING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE SLWR
TIMING TWD DAYBREAK SUN...IT APPEARS QUITE UNFVRBL FOR ADDNL SHRA OR
TSRA UNTIL LTR SUN AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WAS WELL DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ENTERING
SASKATCHEWAN AND DROPPING RAPIDLY SE. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY AS 12Z SUNDAY
WITH PEAK DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE 17 TO 20Z TIME FRAME.
POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS -16 TO -20 C DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE) WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE WITH TIMING ALSO IN
FAVORABLE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. WHILE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE BEEN GUTTED...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS (THUNDER??) LOOKING MORE LIKELY SUN MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS NE HALF BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY FOR NOW.

COLDEST AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND REMAINS
PARKED THERE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIKELY TRANQUIL WRAP UP TO SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL RATHER BLEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. RAPID DECAY OF UPSTREAM CONVN XPCD
THROUGH DAYBREAK W/CONCURRENT BURGEONING MIXED LYR XPCD BY MID
MORNING. SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS XPCD THROUGH MID AFTN AHD OF PREFNTL
WIND SHIFT. OTRWS CONV INITIATION NW OF KSBN TERMINAL XPCD IN 19-20Z
TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY E/SE PROGRESSION OF GENERALLY WKNG LINE. WILL
HOLD W/PRIOR FCST VCTS MENTION FOR THIS AFTN/EVE AND REACCESS
PINPOINTING GREATER TEMPORAL DETAILS W/12Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 201607
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1207 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1154 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CONTINUED FOCUS
ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY ORIENTED LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN AXIS OF SURFACE BASED CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
750-1200 J/KG ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING INTO THE 35 TO 40 KNOT RANGE. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS DEPICTING NEXT SHORT WAVE OF INTEREST ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND THIS WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST TO TRACK
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AT LEAST A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF
INSOLATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW ABOVE INSTABILITY MAGNITUDE TO BE REALIZED. WEAK CIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BUT WITH EVENTUAL APPROACH OF
UPPER WAVE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ANY WEAK CIN SHOULD BE ERODED
ACROSS THE WEST. WITH FAIRLY STRONG FORCING AND ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MAINLY LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS
TO BE INSTABILITY. STILL EXPECTING RISK TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE GIVEN LOWER END INSTABILITY...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL
OF SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHEAST INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VIGOROUS LEAD SW TROUGH ACRS ERN ND IN ASSOCN W/LARGER SCALE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD OUT OF ALBERTA SIGNALS
SIGNIFICANT HGT AMPLIFICATION ALOFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SUNDAY. PREFNTL WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCN/W LEAD DISTURBANCE ACTING UPON
A FVRBL RTN FLW LL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING FM NERN NE
NEWD INTO SERN MN. HWVR XPC THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECAY RATHER ABRUPTLY
EWD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

PRIMARY SHRT TERM DIFFICULTY IS ACCESSING TEMPORAL EXTENT OF
PROBABLY CONVN LTR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. 12Z GUIDANCE SIMILAR IN
SCOPE W/NARROWING EWD ADVTN OF PLAINS THETA-E PLUME. HIGHRES DETAILS
PER WIND SHIFT TIMING SUGGEST LTL THUNDER THREAT WILL CARRY EWD OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS LL THETA-E RIDGE PINCHES OFF W/NEWD EXTENT AND
HAVE CUT LT AFTN/EVE POP EXTENT ACRS FAR SE FURTHER. OTRWS GIST OF
PREV FCST HOLD YET DID ADD FURTHER TEMPORAL DETAIL BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF PREFERRED HIGHRES GUIDANCE CLUSTERING. CONDITIONAL SVR
THREAT PREDICATED ON ATTAINING SUFFICIENT SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION
LT THIS AFTN W/AREAS WEST OF I-69 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30
IN BEST OVERLAP OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND GREATER MODEL IMPLIED HEATING.
REGARDLESS DAMAGING WIND THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLD AT BEST.

SFC CDFNT FOLLOWS BUT IN LIGHT OF DIGGING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE SLWR
TIMING TWD DAYBREAK SUN...IT APPEARS QUITE UNFVRBL FOR ADDNL SHRA OR
TSRA UNTIL LTR SUN AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WAS WELL DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ENTERING
SASKATCHEWAN AND DROPPING RAPIDLY SE. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY AS 12Z SUNDAY
WITH PEAK DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE 17 TO 20Z TIME FRAME.
POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS -16 TO -20 C DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE) WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE WITH TIMING ALSO IN
FAVORABLE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. WHILE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE BEEN GUTTED...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS (THUNDER??) LOOKING MORE LIKELY SUN MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS NE HALF BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY FOR NOW.

COLDEST AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND REMAINS
PARKED THERE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIKELY TRANQUIL WRAP UP TO SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL RATHER BLEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. RAPID DECAY OF UPSTREAM CONVN XPCD
THROUGH DAYBREAK W/CONCURRENT BURGEONING MIXED LYR XPCD BY MID
MORNING. SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS XPCD THROUGH MID AFTN AHD OF PREFNTL
WIND SHIFT. OTRWS CONV INITIATION NW OF KSBN TERMINAL XPCD IN 19-20Z
TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY E/SE PROGRESSION OF GENERALLY WKNG LINE. WILL
HOLD W/PRIOR FCST VCTS MENTION FOR THIS AFTN/EVE AND REACCESS
PINPOINTING GREATER TEMPORAL DETAILS W/12Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 201431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COOL FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. HIGHER
DEW POINTS HAVE ARRIVED IN THE AREA...REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING NEAR 00Z.
ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
HE AFTERNOON WITH CHCS FOR POPS ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE FAILURE OF
YESTERDAY/S PERSISTENCE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LAYERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL TO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KIND STARTING AT 202200Z LOOKS TOO
EARLY BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAVE FOR
NOW AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 201431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COOL FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. HIGHER
DEW POINTS HAVE ARRIVED IN THE AREA...REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING NEAR 00Z.
ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
HE AFTERNOON WITH CHCS FOR POPS ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE FAILURE OF
YESTERDAY/S PERSISTENCE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LAYERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL TO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KIND STARTING AT 202200Z LOOKS TOO
EARLY BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAVE FOR
NOW AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 201431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COOL FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. HIGHER
DEW POINTS HAVE ARRIVED IN THE AREA...REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING NEAR 00Z.
ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
HE AFTERNOON WITH CHCS FOR POPS ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE FAILURE OF
YESTERDAY/S PERSISTENCE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LAYERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL TO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KIND STARTING AT 202200Z LOOKS TOO
EARLY BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAVE FOR
NOW AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 201431
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1031 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A COOL FRONT
STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND CENTRAL IOWA TO CENTRAL
KANSAS. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WAS IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA. HIGHER
DEW POINTS HAVE ARRIVED IN THE AREA...REACHING THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIMITED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT OVER WISCONSIN AND IOWA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRY COLUMN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVING NEAR 00Z.
ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH
HE AFTERNOON WITH CHCS FOR POPS ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDED HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE FAILURE OF
YESTERDAY/S PERSISTENCE TO REACH EXPECTED HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 201500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SATELLITE SHOWS SOME LAYERED CLOUDS BASED AROUND 040 BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP...SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL TO THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE THREAT AT KIND STARTING AT 202200Z LOOKS TOO
EARLY BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT WILL LEAVE FOR
NOW AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 200952
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
552 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ALSO
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...DRY WEATHER
WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM 8PM TO 2AM SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE. SPC EVEN INCLUDE
A FEW OF THE FAR REACHING NW COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 2AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 200952
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
552 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ALSO
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...DRY WEATHER
WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM 8PM TO 2AM SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE. SPC EVEN INCLUDE
A FEW OF THE FAR REACHING NW COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 2AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 201200Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 547 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BRIEF AND SPOTTY MVFR FOG UNTIL 201300Z MAY NOT EFFECT ALL TAF
SITES. LATE MORNING WINDS PICK UP ABOVE 10 KNOTS AND BEGIN GUSTING
ABOVE 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

EARLY MORNING STORMS FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN APPEAR WELL HANDLED BY
MODELS AND LOOK FOR ARRIVAL TO KLAF BY 202100Z AND KIND BY 202200Z
THEN PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. AFTER INITIAL HOUR-TWO HOUR ROUND OF
THUNDER... SEVERAL HOURS OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFTERWORD. CLOUD DECKS AND VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR EXCEPT IN
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 200813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
413 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ALSO
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...DRY WEATHER
WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM 8PM TO 2AM SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE. SPC EVEN INCLUDE
A FEW OF THE FAR REACHING NW COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 2AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /UPDATE FOR 200600Z ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 408 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

KBMG WAS BRIEFLY AT IFR VISIBILITY EARLIER BUT HAS SINCE IMPROVED
TO 10 MILES. STILL POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY PERIOD
FROM FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KBMG...KHUF AND KLAF. AFTER SUNRISE VFR
IS EXPECTED. WITH APPROACHING COLDFRONT WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN ABOVE 10 KNOTS WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS OVER
20 KTS. THUNDERSTORMS AT 200800Z FROM IOWA TO WISCONSIN STILL ON
TRACK TO ARRIVE NO EARLIER THAN 202100Z AT KLAF AND 210000Z AT
KIND.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 200740
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
340 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MILD AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD OUT OF THE PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST UP TO 25 MPH
AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VIGOROUS LEAD SW TROUGH ACRS ERN ND IN ASSOCN W/LARGER SCALE
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE DROPPING SEWD OUT OF ALBERTA SIGNALS
SIGNIFICANT HGT AMPLIFICATION ALOFT ACRS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
SUNDAY. PREFNTL WIND SHIFT IN ASSOCN/W LEAD DISTURBANCE ACTING UPON
A FVRBL RTN FLW LL THETA-E RIDGE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING FM NERN NE
NEWD INTO SERN MN. HWVR XPC THIS ACTIVITY WILL DECAY RATHER ABRUPTLY
EWD THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS.

PRIMARY SHRT TERM DIFFICULTY IS ACCESSING TEMPORAL EXTENT OF
PROBABLY CONVN LTR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE. 12Z GUIDANCE SIMILAR IN
SCOPE W/NARROWING EWD ADVTN OF PLAINS THETA-E PLUME. HIGHRES DETAILS
PER WIND SHIFT TIMING SUGGEST LTL THUNDER THREAT WILL CARRY EWD OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS LL THETA-E RIDGE PINCHES OFF W/NEWD EXTENT AND
HAVE CUT LT AFTN/EVE POP EXTENT ACRS FAR SE FURTHER. OTRWS GIST OF
PREV FCST HOLD YET DID ADD FURTHER TEMPORAL DETAIL BASED ON
CONSENSUS OF PREFERRED HIGHRES GUIDANCE CLUSTERING. CONDITIONAL SVR
THREAT PREDICATED ON ATTAINING SUFFICIENT SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION
LT THIS AFTN W/AREAS WEST OF I-69 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30
IN BEST OVERLAP OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND GREATER MODEL IMPLIED HEATING.
REGARDLESS DAMAGING WIND THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLD AT BEST.

SFC CDFNT FOLLOWS BUT IN LIGHT OF DIGGING UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE SLWR
TIMING TWD DAYBREAK SUN...IT APPEARS QUITE UNFVRBL FOR ADDNL SHRA OR
TSRA UNTIL LTR SUN AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST WAS WELL DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ENTERING
SASKATCHEWAN AND DROPPING RAPIDLY SE. INCREASING LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA AS EARLY AS 12Z SUNDAY
WITH PEAK DEVELOPMENT LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE 17 TO 20Z TIME FRAME.
POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT (500 MB TEMPS -16 TO -20 C DEPENDING ON
MODEL OF CHOICE) WILL ACCOMPANY THE WAVE WITH TIMING ALSO IN
FAVORABLE EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. WHILE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
HAVE BEEN GUTTED...SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 50S. THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS (THUNDER??) LOOKING MORE LIKELY SUN MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS NE HALF BUT HELD SHY OF LIKELY FOR NOW.

COLDEST AIR WILL QUICKLY SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
NORMAL AS DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN STATES AND REMAINS
PARKED THERE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIKELY TRANQUIL WRAP UP TO SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL RATHER BLEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDS XPCD THROUGH THE PD. RAPID DECAY OF UPSTREAM CONVN XPCD
THROUGH DAYBREAK W/CONCURRENT BURGEONING MIXED LYR XPCD BY MID
MORNING. SFC GUSTS AOA 20KTS XPCD THROUGH MID AFTN AHD OF PREFNTL
WIND SHIFT. OTRWS CONV INITIATION NW OF KSBN TERMINAL XPCD IN 19-20Z
TIME FRAME FOLLOWED BY E/SE PROGRESSION OF GENERALLY WKNG LINE. WILL
HOLD W/PRIOR FCST VCTS MENTION FOR THIS AFTN/EVE AND REACCESS
PINPOINTING GREATER TEMPORAL DETAILS W/12Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 200643
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
243 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEPART TODAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY
WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
THEN A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
INDIANA. COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING
IN DRY WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND ALSO
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST TODAY...DRY WEATHER
WILL BASICALLY PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIKELY POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM 8PM TO 2AM SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW TO SE. SPC EVEN INCLUDE
A FEW OF THE FAR REACHING NW COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WX WITH DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
OTHERWISE ELSEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 2AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...LEFTOVER SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE
DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRY...AND WINDS WILL BE GUSTING
TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODELS THEN DEPICT
ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 200613
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200613
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 206 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NO FORECAST ISSUES. GUIDANCE IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TO SAY. BROAD
UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGE TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH EAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST OVER TIME. MIN TEMPS
SLOWLY CLIMB FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WHILE MAX TEMPS CLIMB FROM
LOWER 70S TO UPPER 70S BY LATE WEEK. OVERALL FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CLIMATE AVERAGES AND TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER.

BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME FOR NEXT WEEKEND GFS STILL WAVERING BETWEEN
MODEL RUNS ON WHETHER TO BRING GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO
OHIO VALLEY AS WEAK UPPER WAVE LIFTS FROM GULF. EURO CONFINES THIS
MOISTURE TO GULF STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....TUCEK
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 200447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200447
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1247 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

IFR FOG AT KBMG EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT
OTHER SITES OVERNIGHT THOUGH ONLY FORECASTING SUCH AT KHUF FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD /OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION
LATE/.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE KLAF AREA AROUND 21Z WITH
KIND AND AREAS SOUTH AROUND 00Z OR LATER. COULD BE SOME
THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE AND TIMING THAT FAR OUT.
FOR NOW ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT NORTHERN SITES TO COVER THIS
PROBABILITY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...TUCEK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 200223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO KIND TAF BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT OUTLIER SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAY IMPACT KLAF BY
21Z AND KIND AFTER 24Z SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AS NEEDED FOR NOW.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...50

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000
FXUS63 KIND 200223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO KIND TAF BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT OUTLIER SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAY IMPACT KLAF BY
21Z AND KIND AFTER 24Z SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AS NEEDED FOR NOW.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 200013
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

IN THE MEANTIME...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. A 50-60 KNOT LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
TRANSPORT TAKING SHAPE FROM MID MS RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WEAK UPPER
PERTURBATIONS ENTERING WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT
FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COMBINED
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 50S OR AROUND 50 EAST.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LLJ FORCING. WHILE PROPAGATION
VECTORS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK
INTO FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
SHIFT ACROSS APPROXIMATELY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION MENTIONED...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEAR SFC/SFC
TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN THE ABOVE INCREASE IN FORCING...SOME
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE TEMPERED. WHILE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE STRONG PRECEDING THE FRONT...NAM MAY
BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THUS A BIT ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH INSTABILITY PROGS. NEVERTHELESS..GIVEN
STEEPISH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER
OF 750-1500 J/KG AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS
SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS BELT OF STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PROGRESSES THROUGH BASE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN LOW/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT
(MAINLY ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) DEPENDING ON HOW INSTABILITY
EVOLVES GIVEN STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND WIND FIELD AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO FLOW. WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME.

A PUNCH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SECONDARY AXIS OF PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY
MORE DELAYED FROPA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT BEHIND COLD
FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE AREA. MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTING LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
STRONG PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH
STRONG DPVA WITHIN THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS
CERTAINLY SCOURED AS THIS FEATURE NEARS BUT CONCERN LIES WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY WEAK LAKE CONTRIBUTION
PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS BACK TO FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST WHERE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF PV ANOMALY SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED
WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
THEN LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER POST FRONTAL WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND DEEPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT TEMPS
SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO BEGIN THE WEEK BUT WARMING TO LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO EXIST
WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING ANCHORED RIGHT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR MET CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHARPENING UPSTREAM TROF TO BRING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
REGION SAT AFTERNOON. CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AS ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING DECAY OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MAY INHIBIT SFC HEATING. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE AS
VCTS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AT KSBN WITH KFWA CONCVECTION FREE
DUE TO BOTH LATER TIMING AND PREVALENT HEIGHT FALL CENTROID TRACK
REMAINING WELL NORTH /NERN WI MIDDAY INTO LAKE HURON SAT
EVENING/.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MURPHY


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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 200013
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
813 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY
MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

IN THE MEANTIME...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. A 50-60 KNOT LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
TRANSPORT TAKING SHAPE FROM MID MS RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WEAK UPPER
PERTURBATIONS ENTERING WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT
FORECAST AREA DRY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END CHANCE OF A
SHOWER MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS
STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA.
OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COMBINED
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 50S OR AROUND 50 EAST.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LLJ FORCING. WHILE PROPAGATION
VECTORS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK
INTO FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO
SHIFT ACROSS APPROXIMATELY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION MENTIONED...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEAR SFC/SFC
TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN THE ABOVE INCREASE IN FORCING...SOME
POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THIS INSTABILITY TO BE TEMPERED. WHILE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE STRONG PRECEDING THE FRONT...NAM MAY
BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC DEW POINTS...AND THUS A BIT ON THE
AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH INSTABILITY PROGS. NEVERTHELESS..GIVEN
STEEPISH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER
OF 750-1500 J/KG AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE A POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS
SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS BELT OF STRONGER
MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PROGRESSES THROUGH BASE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN LOW/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE THREAT
(MAINLY ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) DEPENDING ON HOW INSTABILITY
EVOLVES GIVEN STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND WIND FIELD AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO FLOW. WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME.

A PUNCH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SECONDARY AXIS OF PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY
MORE DELAYED FROPA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT BEHIND COLD
FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE AREA. MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUGGESTING LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE
BEEN DISCUSSING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
STRONG PV ANOMALY NOW DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH
STRONG DPVA WITHIN THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS
CERTAINLY SCOURED AS THIS FEATURE NEARS BUT CONCERN LIES WITH
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY WEAK LAKE CONTRIBUTION
PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS BACK TO FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
EAST WHERE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF PV ANOMALY SEEMS TO BE FOCUSED
WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD
THEN LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER POST FRONTAL WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND DEEPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT TEMPS
SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO BEGIN THE WEEK BUT WARMING TO LOWS IN THE 50S AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO EXIST
WITH RIDGING ALOFT BECOMING ANCHORED RIGHT OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR MET CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SHARPENING UPSTREAM TROF TO BRING INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
REGION SAT AFTERNOON. CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AS ANTICIPATED EARLY MORNING DECAY OF UPSTREAM
CONVECTION MAY INHIBIT SFC HEATING. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE AS
VCTS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD AT KSBN WITH KFWA CONCVECTION FREE
DUE TO BOTH LATER TIMING AND PREVALENT HEIGHT FALL CENTROID TRACK
REMAINING WELL NORTH /NERN WI MIDDAY INTO LAKE HURON SAT
EVENING/.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 192230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT OUTLIER SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAY IMPACT KLAF BY
21Z AND KIND AFTER 24Z SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AS NEEDED FOR NOW.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 192230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 200000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT OUTLIER SITES OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM...MAY IMPACT KLAF BY
21Z AND KIND AFTER 24Z SO HAVE ADDED VCSH AS NEEDED FOR NOW.

WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE LIKELY MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 192108
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
508 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

IN THE MEANTIME...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. A 50-60 KNOT LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
TRANSPORT TAKING SHAPE FROM MID MS RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WEAK UPPER PERTURBATIONS
ENTERING WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAY EXIST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE FOR
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 50S OR AROUND 50 EAST.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LLJ FORCING. WHILE PROPAGATION
VECTORS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK
INTO FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEAR SFC/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE INCREASE IN FORCING...SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THIS
INSTABILITY TO BE TEMPERED. WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
STRONG PRECEDING THE FRONT...NAM MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC
DEW POINTS...AND THUS A BIT ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH INSTABILITY
PROGS. NEVERTHELESS..GIVEN STEEPISH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE
BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 750-1500 J/KG AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PROGRESSES THROUGH
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN LOW/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE
THREAT (MAINLY ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) DEPENDING ON HOW
INSTABILITY EVOLVES GIVEN STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND WIND FIELD AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO FLOW. WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME.

A PUNCH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SECONDARY AXIS OF PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY MORE
DELAYED FROPA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE MILDER MINS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT BEHIND COLD
FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE AREA. MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY NOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH STRONG DPVA WITHIN THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY SCOURED AS THIS FEATURE
NEARS BUT CONCERN LIES WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY WEAK
LAKE CONTRIBUTION PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BACK TO FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST WHERE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF PV ANOMALY SEEMS TO BE
FOCUSED WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER POST FRONTAL WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND DEEPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
BEGIN THE WEEK BUT WARMING TO LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO EXIST WITH RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMING ANCHORED RIGHT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 192108
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
508 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 458 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

IN THE MEANTIME...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. A 50-60 KNOT LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
TRANSPORT TAKING SHAPE FROM MID MS RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WEAK UPPER PERTURBATIONS
ENTERING WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAY EXIST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE FOR
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 50S OR AROUND 50 EAST.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LLJ FORCING. WHILE PROPAGATION
VECTORS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK
INTO FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEAR SFC/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE INCREASE IN FORCING...SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THIS
INSTABILITY TO BE TEMPERED. WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
STRONG PRECEDING THE FRONT...NAM MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC
DEW POINTS...AND THUS A BIT ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH INSTABILITY
PROGS. NEVERTHELESS..GIVEN STEEPISH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE
BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 750-1500 J/KG AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PROGRESSES THROUGH
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN LOW/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE
THREAT (MAINLY ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) DEPENDING ON HOW
INSTABILITY EVOLVES GIVEN STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND WIND FIELD AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO FLOW. WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME.

A PUNCH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SECONDARY AXIS OF PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY MORE
DELAYED FROPA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE MILDER MINS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT BEHIND COLD
FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE AREA. MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY NOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH STRONG DPVA WITHIN THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY SCOURED AS THIS FEATURE
NEARS BUT CONCERN LIES WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY WEAK
LAKE CONTRIBUTION PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BACK TO FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST WHERE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF PV ANOMALY SEEMS TO BE
FOCUSED WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER POST FRONTAL WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND DEEPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
BEGIN THE WEEK BUT WARMING TO LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO EXIST WITH RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMING ANCHORED RIGHT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 192022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 192100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

KIND TAF ONLY NEEDED MINOR TWEAK TO WIND DIRECTION. FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 192011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

IN THE MEANTIME...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. A 50-60 KNOT LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
TRANSPORT TAKING SHAPE FROM MID MS RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WEAK UPPER PERTURBATIONS
ENTERING WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAY EXIST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE FOR
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 50S OR AROUND 50 EAST.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LLJ FORCING. WHILE PROPAGATION
VECTORS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK
INTO FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEAR SFC/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE INCREASE IN FORCING...SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THIS
INSTABILITY TO BE TEMPERED. WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
STRONG PRECEDING THE FRONT...NAM MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC
DEW POINTS...AND THUS A BIT ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH INSTABILITY
PROGS. NEVERTHELESS..GIVEN STEEPISH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE
BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 750-1500 J/KG AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PROGRESSES THROUGH
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN LOW/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE
THREAT (MAINLY ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) DEPENDING ON HOW
INSTABILITY EVOLVES GIVEN STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND WIND FIELD AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO FLOW. WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME.

A PUNCH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SECONDARY AXIS OF PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY MORE
DELAYED FROPA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE MILDER MINS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT BEHIND COLD
FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE AREA. MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY NOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH STRONG DPVA WITHIN THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY SCOURED AS THIS FEATURE
NEARS BUT CONCERN LIES WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY WEAK
LAKE CONTRIBUTION PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BACK TO FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST WHERE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF PV ANOMALY SEEMS TO BE
FOCUSED WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER POST FRONTAL WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND DEEPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
BEGIN THE WEEK BUT WARMING TO LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO EXIST WITH RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMING ANCHORED RIGHT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 192011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

IN THE MEANTIME...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. A 50-60 KNOT LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
TRANSPORT TAKING SHAPE FROM MID MS RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WEAK UPPER PERTURBATIONS
ENTERING WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAY EXIST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE FOR
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 50S OR AROUND 50 EAST.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LLJ FORCING. WHILE PROPAGATION
VECTORS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK
INTO FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEAR SFC/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE INCREASE IN FORCING...SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THIS
INSTABILITY TO BE TEMPERED. WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
STRONG PRECEDING THE FRONT...NAM MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC
DEW POINTS...AND THUS A BIT ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH INSTABILITY
PROGS. NEVERTHELESS..GIVEN STEEPISH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE
BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 750-1500 J/KG AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PROGRESSES THROUGH
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN LOW/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE
THREAT (MAINLY ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) DEPENDING ON HOW
INSTABILITY EVOLVES GIVEN STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND WIND FIELD AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO FLOW. WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME.

A PUNCH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SECONDARY AXIS OF PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY MORE
DELAYED FROPA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE MILDER MINS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT BEHIND COLD
FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE AREA. MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY NOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH STRONG DPVA WITHIN THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY SCOURED AS THIS FEATURE
NEARS BUT CONCERN LIES WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY WEAK
LAKE CONTRIBUTION PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BACK TO FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST WHERE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF PV ANOMALY SEEMS TO BE
FOCUSED WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER POST FRONTAL WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND DEEPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
BEGIN THE WEEK BUT WARMING TO LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO EXIST WITH RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMING ANCHORED RIGHT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 192011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

IN THE MEANTIME...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. A 50-60 KNOT LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
TRANSPORT TAKING SHAPE FROM MID MS RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WEAK UPPER PERTURBATIONS
ENTERING WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAY EXIST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE FOR
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 50S OR AROUND 50 EAST.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LLJ FORCING. WHILE PROPAGATION
VECTORS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK
INTO FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEAR SFC/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE INCREASE IN FORCING...SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THIS
INSTABILITY TO BE TEMPERED. WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
STRONG PRECEDING THE FRONT...NAM MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC
DEW POINTS...AND THUS A BIT ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH INSTABILITY
PROGS. NEVERTHELESS..GIVEN STEEPISH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE
BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 750-1500 J/KG AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PROGRESSES THROUGH
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN LOW/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE
THREAT (MAINLY ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) DEPENDING ON HOW
INSTABILITY EVOLVES GIVEN STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND WIND FIELD AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO FLOW. WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME.

A PUNCH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SECONDARY AXIS OF PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY MORE
DELAYED FROPA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE MILDER MINS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT BEHIND COLD
FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE AREA. MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY NOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH STRONG DPVA WITHIN THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY SCOURED AS THIS FEATURE
NEARS BUT CONCERN LIES WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY WEAK
LAKE CONTRIBUTION PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BACK TO FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST WHERE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF PV ANOMALY SEEMS TO BE
FOCUSED WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER POST FRONTAL WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND DEEPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
BEGIN THE WEEK BUT WARMING TO LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO EXIST WITH RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMING ANCHORED RIGHT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 192011
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING WARMER AIR
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH. A SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 60 ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...TO AROUND 50 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM.

IN THE MEANTIME...BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WITH CONTINUED SLOW EASTWARD MIGRATION OF LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST CONUS/SOUTHEAST CANADA. A 50-60 KNOT LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE TONIGHT...WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL MOIST
TRANSPORT TAKING SHAPE FROM MID MS RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TONIGHT. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WEAK UPPER PERTURBATIONS
ENTERING WESTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT FORECAST AREA DRY
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW END CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAY EXIST
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STRONGER LOW/MID LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE FOR
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
PARTICULARLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COMBINED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA WILL PROVIDE MILDER MINS FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 50S...TO THE LOWER 50S OR AROUND 50 EAST.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINING IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK FOR SATURDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED LLJ FORCING. WHILE PROPAGATION
VECTORS WOULD TEND TO KEEP THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF LOCAL
AREA...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO WORK
INTO FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. NEXT UPSTREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR
AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SHIFT ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
MENTIONED...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE
HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEAR SFC/SFC TEMPERATURES...AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE INCREASE IN FORCING...SOME POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THIS
INSTABILITY TO BE TEMPERED. WHILE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
STRONG PRECEDING THE FRONT...NAM MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH SFC
DEW POINTS...AND THUS A BIT ON THE AGGRESSIVE SIDE WITH INSTABILITY
PROGS. NEVERTHELESS..GIVEN STEEPISH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE
BASED CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 750-1500 J/KG AT LEAST APPEAR TO BE A
POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND 0-3 KM SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY
AS BELT OF STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES PROGRESSES THROUGH
BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN LOW/MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CANNOT RULE OUT AT LEAST AN ISOLD SEVERE
THREAT (MAINLY ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS) DEPENDING ON HOW
INSTABILITY EVOLVES GIVEN STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND WIND FIELD AND
UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE TO FLOW. WINDOW OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS IN THE 21Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME.

A PUNCH OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...BUT SECONDARY AXIS OF PREFRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD KEEP ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS NEXT UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. SLIGHTLY MORE
DELAYED FROPA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
PROVIDE MILDER MINS IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY SLOT BEHIND COLD
FRONT INITIALLY OVER THE AREA. MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POST FRONTAL INVERSION WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTING
LINGERING CLOUD COVER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER STRONG PV ANOMALY NOW
DROPPING INTO THE AREA BY MID DAY WITH STRONG DPVA WITHIN THIS SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. DEEPER MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY SCOURED AS THIS FEATURE
NEARS BUT CONCERN LIES WITH TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ANY WEAK
LAKE CONTRIBUTION PROVIDING ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A BIT OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN WAKE OF MAIN COLD FRONT. HAVE THEREFORE
ADDED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS BACK TO FORECAST SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST WHERE STRONGER INFLUENCE OF PV ANOMALY SEEMS TO BE
FOCUSED WITH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER POST FRONTAL WITH MODIFIED
AIRMASS AND DEEPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR EAST MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND. EXPECT TEMPS SIMILAR TO
LAST FEW DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
BEGIN THE WEEK BUT WARMING TO LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 70S
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS TO EXIST WITH RIDGING ALOFT
BECOMING ANCHORED RIGHT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 191818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY DEPART TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...PROVIDING A BIT MORE DRY WEATHER FOR CENTRAL INDIANA
ALONG WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DEPARTING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO
CENTRAL INDIANA.

COOL NORTH WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT DEPARTS AND ANOTHER AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND...EXTENDING IT/S INFLUENCE FAR WEST TO
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WAS
FOUND OVER THE DAKOTAS WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TOWARD
CENTRAL COLORADO. LIGHT EAST WINDS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA AND DEW POINTS REMAINED IN THE PLEASANT MID AND UPPER 40S.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE STATE AND RADAR WAS
QUIET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE...SLOWLY
FLATTENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ALONG WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI/OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEYS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN OUT OVERNIGHT...AND THIS WILL BRING A STOP TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALSO SHOULD RESULT IN
THE STREAMING OF SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT.
NONETHELESS...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SET-UP. GIVEN OUR WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH RISING THICKNESSES...WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN PERSISTENCE...AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND
ALSO REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN...BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO DEPART AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ALSO
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES AMID A DRY COLUMN ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUD CANNOT RULED OUT AS SUBSIDENCE
WANES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS WILL AIM FOR PARTLY CLOUDY ON SATURDAY
AS FOR TEMPS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN AIM FOR HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. A BLEND OF MAV MOS MET SHOULD WORK NICELY.

GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A THINK BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MOISTURE WORKING ACROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...PROVIDING CONVERGENCE. Q VECTORS AGREE SHOWING LOWER
LEVEL CONVERENCE ALSO. 310 ISENTROPIC SURFACE IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE...STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT...HOWEVER IT
CONTINUES TO SHOW AND SURGE OF HIGHER SPECIFIC
HUMIDITIES...GREATER THAN 6 G/KG...PUSHING ACROSS INDIANA LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. ALOFT...GFS SHOW A DEEPER WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTH OUR OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAIL TO DEEP SATURATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME...BUT DO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS
PWATS RISE TO OVER 1 INCH. THUS WITH MANY INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE
FOR RAIN...BUT NOT ALL OF THEM...CONFIDENCE IN A LIGHT RAIN EVENT
CONTINUES TO GROW. WILL ONCE AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR TO THE LIKELY OR
HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE HERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN.

AS FOR SUNDAY POPS WILL STICK CLOSE TO MAVMOS POPS AS TIMING
OF DEPARTURE OF THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
HOWEVER THIS MUCH IS CLEAR...BY AFTERNOON GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
MUCH DRYER AIR ARRIVING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DRY OUT. THUS WILL TREND FORECAST TO DRY BY NOON ON SUNDAY. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OR TREND COOLER THAN MAVMOS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GFS AND NAM THEN SUGGEST ANOTHER VERY LARGE AND BROAD AREA OF COOL
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DRY OUT DRAMATICALLY THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL SUGGEST THE
DEEP TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DIGGING ACROSS INDIANA ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STRONG DRY SURFACE HIGH SHOULD STILL PREVAIL
IN A DRY FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. WILL TREND TEMPS COOLER THAN MAVMOS
AMID A DRY FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...

ENSEMBLES INDICATE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 191751
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME LOW COVERAGE
CIRRUS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. NAM SHORT TERM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MIXING UP TO 900-875 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
GOING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO FIRST PERIOD ZFP UPDATE IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC RIDGE CNTRD OVR SERN ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO PROGRESSIVE SW
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FNTL SYS BY SAT. INCREASING LL WAA ESP LATE
THIS AFTN WILL GIVE A BOOST TO TEMPS ESP WRN/SRN ZONES VS YDA. MUCH
WARMER ESP WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO STGR SWRLY GRADIENT FLW AND
LIKELY ENCROACHMENT OF HIGH CLD SHIELD. OTRWS DRY AS WRN BOUND OF LL
ANTICYCLONE SLW TO MOISTEN ALG W/VEERED LL WRLY FLW SUGGESTING
GENERAL WK SUBSIDENT FLW WILL PERSIST INTO SAT AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SAT AFTN/EVE PERIOD IN STORE FOR AT LEAST NW
PARTS OF THE AREA AS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOOKING DYNAMICS APPEAR
TO BE COMING INTO PLAY.

TOUGH FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW TO HANDLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AS MODELS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES (NOW GENERALLY CHC
TO A FEW SPOTS SHOWING LIKELY) SAT AFTN/EVE AS SPEED AND DEPTH OF
MSTR RETURN REMAINS IN QUESTION. WITH LOW TO MID 60 DEWPTS NOT THAT
FAR AWAY GIVEN INCREASING FLOW WHICH WILL SETUP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...IT IS PLAUSIBLE FOR SIMILAR VALUES TO ADVECT IN RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. 0-3 KM SHEAR ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TOWARDS ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OF MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RISK OF
STG-SEVERE STORMS IF TIMING AND MSTR ALIGN JUST RIGHT. MODELS VARY
GREATLY ON THESE POINTS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE TO PUSHING 2000 J/KG. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS PLACED THE NW
QUARTER OR SO OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE
WE CAN`T DISAGREE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPTS INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 60S. RISK DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH SE PROGRESSION ASSUMING
NO ORGANIZED COLD POOL WERE TO ESTABLISH. CHANCES SAT AM LOOKING
RATHER POOR (IF THIS DID UNFOLD THEN CHANCE FOR SEVERE WOULD BE
DIMINISHED GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS). HAVE CONFINED SLGT CHC
POPS TO FAR NW. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT ALONE
DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED ISSUES WITH GUIDANCE.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST IN THE SE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART WITH SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. MAIN SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT
WEEK. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE BUT OVERALL
LIFT AND REMAINING MSTR LOOKS RATHER BLEAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES IN
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUIET
PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 191751
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME LOW COVERAGE
CIRRUS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. NAM SHORT TERM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MIXING UP TO 900-875 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
GOING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO FIRST PERIOD ZFP UPDATE IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC RIDGE CNTRD OVR SERN ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO PROGRESSIVE SW
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FNTL SYS BY SAT. INCREASING LL WAA ESP LATE
THIS AFTN WILL GIVE A BOOST TO TEMPS ESP WRN/SRN ZONES VS YDA. MUCH
WARMER ESP WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO STGR SWRLY GRADIENT FLW AND
LIKELY ENCROACHMENT OF HIGH CLD SHIELD. OTRWS DRY AS WRN BOUND OF LL
ANTICYCLONE SLW TO MOISTEN ALG W/VEERED LL WRLY FLW SUGGESTING
GENERAL WK SUBSIDENT FLW WILL PERSIST INTO SAT AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SAT AFTN/EVE PERIOD IN STORE FOR AT LEAST NW
PARTS OF THE AREA AS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOOKING DYNAMICS APPEAR
TO BE COMING INTO PLAY.

TOUGH FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW TO HANDLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AS MODELS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES (NOW GENERALLY CHC
TO A FEW SPOTS SHOWING LIKELY) SAT AFTN/EVE AS SPEED AND DEPTH OF
MSTR RETURN REMAINS IN QUESTION. WITH LOW TO MID 60 DEWPTS NOT THAT
FAR AWAY GIVEN INCREASING FLOW WHICH WILL SETUP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...IT IS PLAUSIBLE FOR SIMILAR VALUES TO ADVECT IN RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. 0-3 KM SHEAR ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TOWARDS ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OF MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RISK OF
STG-SEVERE STORMS IF TIMING AND MSTR ALIGN JUST RIGHT. MODELS VARY
GREATLY ON THESE POINTS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE TO PUSHING 2000 J/KG. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS PLACED THE NW
QUARTER OR SO OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE
WE CAN`T DISAGREE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPTS INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 60S. RISK DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH SE PROGRESSION ASSUMING
NO ORGANIZED COLD POOL WERE TO ESTABLISH. CHANCES SAT AM LOOKING
RATHER POOR (IF THIS DID UNFOLD THEN CHANCE FOR SEVERE WOULD BE
DIMINISHED GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS). HAVE CONFINED SLGT CHC
POPS TO FAR NW. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT ALONE
DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED ISSUES WITH GUIDANCE.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST IN THE SE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART WITH SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. MAIN SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT
WEEK. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE BUT OVERALL
LIFT AND REMAINING MSTR LOOKS RATHER BLEAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES IN
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUIET
PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 191751
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME LOW COVERAGE
CIRRUS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. NAM SHORT TERM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MIXING UP TO 900-875 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
GOING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO FIRST PERIOD ZFP UPDATE IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC RIDGE CNTRD OVR SERN ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO PROGRESSIVE SW
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FNTL SYS BY SAT. INCREASING LL WAA ESP LATE
THIS AFTN WILL GIVE A BOOST TO TEMPS ESP WRN/SRN ZONES VS YDA. MUCH
WARMER ESP WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO STGR SWRLY GRADIENT FLW AND
LIKELY ENCROACHMENT OF HIGH CLD SHIELD. OTRWS DRY AS WRN BOUND OF LL
ANTICYCLONE SLW TO MOISTEN ALG W/VEERED LL WRLY FLW SUGGESTING
GENERAL WK SUBSIDENT FLW WILL PERSIST INTO SAT AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SAT AFTN/EVE PERIOD IN STORE FOR AT LEAST NW
PARTS OF THE AREA AS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOOKING DYNAMICS APPEAR
TO BE COMING INTO PLAY.

TOUGH FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW TO HANDLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AS MODELS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES (NOW GENERALLY CHC
TO A FEW SPOTS SHOWING LIKELY) SAT AFTN/EVE AS SPEED AND DEPTH OF
MSTR RETURN REMAINS IN QUESTION. WITH LOW TO MID 60 DEWPTS NOT THAT
FAR AWAY GIVEN INCREASING FLOW WHICH WILL SETUP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...IT IS PLAUSIBLE FOR SIMILAR VALUES TO ADVECT IN RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. 0-3 KM SHEAR ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TOWARDS ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OF MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RISK OF
STG-SEVERE STORMS IF TIMING AND MSTR ALIGN JUST RIGHT. MODELS VARY
GREATLY ON THESE POINTS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE TO PUSHING 2000 J/KG. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS PLACED THE NW
QUARTER OR SO OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE
WE CAN`T DISAGREE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPTS INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 60S. RISK DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH SE PROGRESSION ASSUMING
NO ORGANIZED COLD POOL WERE TO ESTABLISH. CHANCES SAT AM LOOKING
RATHER POOR (IF THIS DID UNFOLD THEN CHANCE FOR SEVERE WOULD BE
DIMINISHED GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS). HAVE CONFINED SLGT CHC
POPS TO FAR NW. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT ALONE
DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED ISSUES WITH GUIDANCE.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST IN THE SE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART WITH SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. MAIN SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT
WEEK. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE BUT OVERALL
LIFT AND REMAINING MSTR LOOKS RATHER BLEAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES IN
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUIET
PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 191751
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
151 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME LOW COVERAGE
CIRRUS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA. NAM SHORT TERM SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MIXING UP TO 900-875 HPA THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
GOING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS
ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO FIRST PERIOD ZFP UPDATE IS CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC RIDGE CNTRD OVR SERN ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO PROGRESSIVE SW
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FNTL SYS BY SAT. INCREASING LL WAA ESP LATE
THIS AFTN WILL GIVE A BOOST TO TEMPS ESP WRN/SRN ZONES VS YDA. MUCH
WARMER ESP WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO STGR SWRLY GRADIENT FLW AND
LIKELY ENCROACHMENT OF HIGH CLD SHIELD. OTRWS DRY AS WRN BOUND OF LL
ANTICYCLONE SLW TO MOISTEN ALG W/VEERED LL WRLY FLW SUGGESTING
GENERAL WK SUBSIDENT FLW WILL PERSIST INTO SAT AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SAT AFTN/EVE PERIOD IN STORE FOR AT LEAST NW
PARTS OF THE AREA AS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOOKING DYNAMICS APPEAR
TO BE COMING INTO PLAY.

TOUGH FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW TO HANDLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AS MODELS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES (NOW GENERALLY CHC
TO A FEW SPOTS SHOWING LIKELY) SAT AFTN/EVE AS SPEED AND DEPTH OF
MSTR RETURN REMAINS IN QUESTION. WITH LOW TO MID 60 DEWPTS NOT THAT
FAR AWAY GIVEN INCREASING FLOW WHICH WILL SETUP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...IT IS PLAUSIBLE FOR SIMILAR VALUES TO ADVECT IN RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. 0-3 KM SHEAR ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TOWARDS ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OF MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RISK OF
STG-SEVERE STORMS IF TIMING AND MSTR ALIGN JUST RIGHT. MODELS VARY
GREATLY ON THESE POINTS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE TO PUSHING 2000 J/KG. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS PLACED THE NW
QUARTER OR SO OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE
WE CAN`T DISAGREE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPTS INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 60S. RISK DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH SE PROGRESSION ASSUMING
NO ORGANIZED COLD POOL WERE TO ESTABLISH. CHANCES SAT AM LOOKING
RATHER POOR (IF THIS DID UNFOLD THEN CHANCE FOR SEVERE WOULD BE
DIMINISHED GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS). HAVE CONFINED SLGT CHC
POPS TO FAR NW. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT ALONE
DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED ISSUES WITH GUIDANCE.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST IN THE SE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART WITH SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. MAIN SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT
WEEK. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE BUT OVERALL
LIFT AND REMAINING MSTR LOOKS RATHER BLEAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES IN
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUIET
PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LARGE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ACROSS EASTERN CONUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE CONTROLLING WEATHER ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...VEERING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AS NEXT TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. STRONG LOW LEVEL THETAE
ADVECTION PRECEDING COLD FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS STRONG LOW LEVEL
THETAE ADVECTION...BUT GREATER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MARSILI
SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 191646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 191646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 191646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 191646
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH 200600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 110-130 AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH TO 6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 191421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 191500Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 191356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 191356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
956 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 944 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS INDIANA AND INTO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW WAS IN PLACE AND DEW POINT TEMPS REMAINED IN THE COMFORTABLE
UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE OHIO VALLEY.

FORECAST SOUNDING REMAIN QUITE DRY AS INDIANA REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE ONCE AGAIN...THUS NO CU IS
EXPECTED. THUS WILL AIM FOR SUNNY SKIES. GIVEN OUR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THICKNESSES AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS WARMER THAN
PERSISTENCE. ONGOING FORECAST HANDLES THIS QUITE WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 191038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

YET ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EASTWARD OF THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER SHOULD BE THE WARMEST THE AREA HAS SEEN IN
ALMOST A WEEK. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO USED A
BLEND WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 191038
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

YET ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EASTWARD OF THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER SHOULD BE THE WARMEST THE AREA HAS SEEN IN
ALMOST A WEEK. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO USED A
BLEND WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/12Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR FOG
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT BMG.

FOG HAS BEEN MUCH LESS PREVALENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...OR THAN
WOULD BE EXPECTED GIVEN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIWX 190755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC RIDGE CNTRD OVR SERN ONTARIO WILL GIVE WAY TO PROGRESSIVE SW
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT FNTL SYS BY SAT. INCREASING LL WAA ESP LATE
THIS AFTN WILL GIVE A BOOST TO TEMPS ESP WRN/SRN ZONES VS YDA. MUCH
WARMER ESP WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO STGR SWRLY GRADIENT FLW AND
LIKELY ENCROACHMENT OF HIGH CLD SHIELD. OTRWS DRY AS WRN BOUND OF LL
ANTICYCLONE SLW TO MOISTEN ALG W/VEERED LL WRLY FLW SUGGESTING
GENERAL WK SUBSIDENT FLW WILL PERSIST INTO SAT AM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

POTENTIALLY ACTIVE SAT AFTN/EVE PERIOD IN STORE FOR AT LEAST NW
PARTS OF THE AREA AS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOOKING DYNAMICS APPEAR
TO BE COMING INTO PLAY.

TOUGH FORECAST IN TERMS OF HOW TO HANDLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
AS MODELS HAVE ALL BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES (NOW GENERALLY CHC
TO A FEW SPOTS SHOWING LIKELY) SAT AFTN/EVE AS SPEED AND DEPTH OF
MSTR RETURN REMAINS IN QUESTION. WITH LOW TO MID 60 DEWPTS NOT THAT
FAR AWAY GIVEN INCREASING FLOW WHICH WILL SETUP OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...IT IS PLAUSIBLE FOR SIMILAR VALUES TO ADVECT IN RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING PEAK HEATING. 0-3 KM SHEAR ON BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TOWARDS ANYWHERE FROM 40 TO 50 KTS OF MAINLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A RISK OF
STG-SEVERE STORMS IF TIMING AND MSTR ALIGN JUST RIGHT. MODELS VARY
GREATLY ON THESE POINTS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE TO PUSHING 2000 J/KG. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS PLACED THE NW
QUARTER OR SO OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE
WE CAN`T DISAGREE...THIS WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND DEWPTS INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 60S. RISK DIMINISHES RAPIDLY WITH SE PROGRESSION ASSUMING
NO ORGANIZED COLD POOL WERE TO ESTABLISH. CHANCES SAT AM LOOKING
RATHER POOR (IF THIS DID UNFOLD THEN CHANCE FOR SEVERE WOULD BE
DIMINISHED GIVEN POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS). HAVE CONFINED SLGT CHC
POPS TO FAR NW. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT ALONE
DESPITE ABOVE MENTIONED ISSUES WITH GUIDANCE.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY EXIST IN THE SE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY DEPART WITH SEASONABLE AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. MAIN SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEXT
WEEK. COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE BUT OVERALL
LIFT AND REMAINING MSTR LOOKS RATHER BLEAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS BY
MID WEEK AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND THEN SETTLES IN
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUIET
PERIOD...LIKELY EXTENDING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014


VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PD. HWVR EWD RETREAT OF STOUT SFC ANTICYCLONE
IN RESPONSE TO DVLPG NRN PLAINS SFC FNTL WAVE. XPC SFC GRADIENT TO
RAMP THIS AFTN VCNTY KSBN W/SFC GUSTS TO 15KTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...T
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 190713
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
313 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

YET ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EASTWARD OF THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER SHOULD BE THE WARMEST THE AREA HAS SEEN IN
ALMOST A WEEK. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO USED A
BLEND WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 190713
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
313 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN. ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

YET ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY IN STORE FOR CENTRAL INDIANA AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES JUST EASTWARD OF THE REGION BRINGING SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER SHOULD BE THE WARMEST THE AREA HAS SEEN IN
ALMOST A WEEK. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SO USED A
BLEND WHICH YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS FOR
LOWS AVERAGING MID 50S. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY IN
THE SHORT TERM AS THE RIDGE MOVES OFF FARTHER TO THE EAST AND
CENTRAL INDIANA RECEIVES SOME RETURN FLOW ON THE FORM OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN GUIDANCE IS STILL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
SO WENT WITH A BLEND OF HIGHS AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S. CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE
SOME SHOWER REMNANTS FROM THE FROPA WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY. SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY DURING THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM 00Z SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES TIL 09Z...WHEN THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO STALL/WASH OUT
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL
TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WARMER THAN MOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY
COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 190633
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 190633
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 190633
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 190633
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MODELS INDICATE THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
ANOTHER PROLONGED DRY STRETCH FOR CENTRAL INDIANA...AND WILL CARRY
NO POPS THROUGHOUT.

THICKNESSES AND HEIGHTS INDICATE TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...BUT GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALIZATION
HANDLED THIS WELL AND FEW TWEAKS WERE REQUIRED.

SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT EARLY FALL WEEK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 190501
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 190501
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MVFR FOG EXPECTED AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND OVERNIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 190226
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

KIND TAF IS GOOD. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST SITES.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 190226
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

KIND TAF IS GOOD. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST SITES.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 182324
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
724 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK FROM A
STRENGTHENING SE CANADA SFC HIGH WILL ENSURE MORE OF THE SAME
(DRY/FAIR WX) THIS PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE FAVORED. ALSO...LOWS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW XOVER
VALUES MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS TO FILL
INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES GIVEN LIGHT FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW WITH
BRIEF RELAXATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS STILL ON MAIN COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND
OF SPEEDING UP ONSET OF PCPN WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. INITIAL THETA E SURGE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOT
BEING SHOWN IN MODELS UPSTREAM ACROSS WI AND IMPINGING ON THIS
HIGHER MOISTURE. THIS ALLOWS SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING THIS
DECAYING PCPN INTO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS. GIVEN THE MODEL SIGNAL LAST SEVERAL RUNS
HAVE ADDED A VERY LOW POP TO THIS AREA SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP APPROACH OF MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW A GOOD LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIKELY WHAT
MODELS ARE KEYING ON. THIS INVERSION AND ADDED CLOUD COVER IN
AFTERNOON TO ALSO LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS MAKING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
DIFFICULT. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON MID AFTERNOON PCPN DEVELOPMENT
NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY AFTER 18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
21Z FAR NORTHWEST. ALSO BLENDED LATEST TEMP GUIDANCE BUT KEPT HIGHS
IN LOWER 80S FAR SOUTH WHERE BEST MIXING AND SUN POTENTIAL EXISTS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
REMAINS LOW BUT PWATS ON BOTH NAM12 AND GFS40 AROUND 1.8 INCHES
WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR SO KEPT TSRA IN
FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE BUT PROGRESSIVE
NATURE TO FRONT SHOULD KEEP FLOODING THREAT MINIMAL. QPF IN THE HALF
TO ONE INCH RANGE LOOKS LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS. STILL THINK SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS MID TROPOSPHERIC
CONTRIBUTION FROM ODILE REMNANTS DESPITE MAIN CIRCULATION REMAINING
WELL SOUTHWEST OF AREA.

CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.
STILL AN EYE ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL SIGNAL IN
MOISTURE PROFILES TO WARRANT ADDING POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES IN FOR REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO 70S AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FEW CU OVER THE AREA SHOULD GRDLY DISSIPATE THIS EVE. WK LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY
RESULT IN MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS TOWARD DAYBREAK... OTRWS VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARMER TEMPS ALOFT FRI
RESULTING IN LITTLE OR NO CU.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 182230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST SITES.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 182230
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUBSIDENCE. THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 630 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT KIND OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MVFR FOG AT ALL BUT
KIND TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BUT WITH DRYING
TODAY FEEL ODDS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT MOST SITES.

OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10KT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 182027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE
...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 182100Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 427 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY TWEAKED KIND TAF. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS/50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 181926
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
326 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK FROM A
STRENGTHENING SE CANADA SFC HIGH WILL ENSURE MORE OF THE SAME
(DRY/FAIR WX) THIS PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE FAVORED. ALSO...LOWS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW XOVER
VALUES MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS TO FILL
INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES GIVEN LIGHT FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW WITH
BRIEF RELAXATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS STILL ON MAIN COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND
OF SPEEDING UP ONSET OF PCPN WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. INITIAL THETA E SURGE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOT
BEING SHOWN IN MODELS UPSTREAM ACROSS WI AND IMPINGING ON THIS
HIGHER MOISTURE. THIS ALLOWS SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING THIS
DECAYING PCPN INTO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS. GIVEN THE MODEL SIGNAL LAST SEVERAL RUNS
HAVE ADDED A VERY LOW POP TO THIS AREA SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP APPROACH OF MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW A GOOD LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIKELY WHAT
MODELS ARE KEYING ON. THIS INVERSION AND ADDED CLOUD COVER IN
AFTERNOON TO ALSO LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS MAKING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
DIFFICULT. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON MID AFTERNOON PCPN DEVELOPMENT
NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY AFTER 18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
21Z FAR NORTHWEST. ALSO BLENDED LATEST TEMP GUIDANCE BUT KEPT HIGHS
IN LOWER 80S FAR SOUTH WHERE BEST MIXING AND SUN POTENTIAL EXISTS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
REMAINS LOW BUT PWATS ON BOTH NAM12 AND GFS40 AROUND 1.8 INCHES
WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR SO KEPT TSRA IN
FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE BUT PROGRESSIVE
NATURE TO FRONT SHOULD KEEP FLOODING THREAT MINIMAL. QPF IN THE HALF
TO ONE INCH RANGE LOOKS LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS. STILL THINK SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS MID TROPOSPHERIC
CONTRIBUTION FROM ODILE REMNANTS DESPITE MAIN CIRCULATION REMAINING
WELL SOUTHWEST OF AREA.

CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.
STILL AN EYE ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL SIGNAL IN
MOISTURE PROFILES TO WARRANT ADDING POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES IN FOR REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO 70S AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC RIDGING IN SUBSIDENT/DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 9-12Z
FRIDAY...BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 181926
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
326 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S...AND RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HEIGHT RISES ALOFT WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS HANGING BACK FROM A
STRENGTHENING SE CANADA SFC HIGH WILL ENSURE MORE OF THE SAME
(DRY/FAIR WX) THIS PERIOD. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE FAVORED. ALSO...LOWS FALLING NEAR OR JUST BELOW XOVER
VALUES MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND
FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK...WITH LOW CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS TO FILL
INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN ZONES GIVEN LIGHT FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE.
OTHERWISE...GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO TOMORROW WITH
BRIEF RELAXATION OF EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS STILL ON MAIN COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TREND
OF SPEEDING UP ONSET OF PCPN WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING. INITIAL THETA E SURGE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 40 KNOT
BEING SHOWN IN MODELS UPSTREAM ACROSS WI AND IMPINGING ON THIS
HIGHER MOISTURE. THIS ALLOWS SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING THIS
DECAYING PCPN INTO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING WELL AHEAD OF MAIN
FRONT AND HEIGHT FALLS. GIVEN THE MODEL SIGNAL LAST SEVERAL RUNS
HAVE ADDED A VERY LOW POP TO THIS AREA SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
MODELS HAVE SPED UP APPROACH OF MAIN SHORT WAVE AND ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTH. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SHOW A GOOD LOW LEVEL INVERSION BUT INSTABILITY ALOFT IS LIKELY WHAT
MODELS ARE KEYING ON. THIS INVERSION AND ADDED CLOUD COVER IN
AFTERNOON TO ALSO LIMIT MIXING HEIGHTS MAKING TEMPERATURE FORECAST
DIFFICULT. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT ON MID AFTERNOON PCPN DEVELOPMENT
NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS CONSIDERABLY AFTER 18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER
21Z FAR NORTHWEST. ALSO BLENDED LATEST TEMP GUIDANCE BUT KEPT HIGHS
IN LOWER 80S FAR SOUTH WHERE BEST MIXING AND SUN POTENTIAL EXISTS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SWEEP THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY
REMAINS LOW BUT PWATS ON BOTH NAM12 AND GFS40 AROUND 1.8 INCHES
WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. CONVECTION
POSSIBLE WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT GOOD SHEAR SO KEPT TSRA IN
FORECAST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE BUT PROGRESSIVE
NATURE TO FRONT SHOULD KEEP FLOODING THREAT MINIMAL. QPF IN THE HALF
TO ONE INCH RANGE LOOKS LIKELY ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS. STILL THINK SOME OF THIS MOISTURE IS MID TROPOSPHERIC
CONTRIBUTION FROM ODILE REMNANTS DESPITE MAIN CIRCULATION REMAINING
WELL SOUTHWEST OF AREA.

CLEARING EXPECTED SUNDAY IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. SECONDARY SHORT WAVE AND FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S.
STILL AN EYE ON LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL AND SOME LIGHT SHOWER
POTENTIAL WITH SECONDARY SHORT WAVE BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL SIGNAL IN
MOISTURE PROFILES TO WARRANT ADDING POPS AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES IN FOR REMAINDER OF LONG TERM WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO 70S AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC RIDGING IN SUBSIDENT/DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF VFR CONDITIONS/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 9-12Z
FRIDAY...BUT COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION
THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...LASHLEY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 181813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE
...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 181813
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
213 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP QUIET WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
INDIANA TONIGHT. A RIDGE ALOFT OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
UP SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WARMER AIR ARRIVES ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE REGION FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A BROAD AREA HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO DOMINATING WEATHER ACROSS INDIANA
AND THE OHIO VALLEY. COOL AND DRY NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS INDIANA WITH SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN OUR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERLY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A DRY COLUMN AND TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSIDENCE
...THUS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS.

GIVEN OUR EXPECTED DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WILL TREND LOWS AT
OR BELOW PERSISTENCE GIVEN OUR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAIN WEATHER CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM SUGGEST THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH EASTWARD AND FLATTEN THROUGH SATURDAY...KEEPING ANY UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT TO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PUSH A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE WEST...ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS AND INTO THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH UNATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS.
THUS WILL USE A DRY FORECAST UNTIL THEN WITH PARTLY CLOUDY DAYS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...WARM AIR WILL ARRIVE IN CENTRAL INDIANA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.
THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS CLIMB DURING THIS TIME. THUS WILL
TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE MAV EACH DAY.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A COLD FRONT PUSHING OUT
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FAIL TO SHOW DEEP SATURATION...BUT DO NOT SHOW A COMPLETELY DRY
COLUMN EITHER. 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS SOME MOISTURE
ARRIVING ALONG THE SURFACE...OVER 6 G/KG...HOWEVER ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS MARGINAL TO POOR. SURFACE CONVERGENCE APPEARS VERY GOOD HOWEVER
AS A GOOD WIND SHIFT AND SHARP TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT.
THUS EXPECT AT LEAST SOME KING OF LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIP TO BREAK
OUT. WILL TREND POPS TO THE HIGH CHANCE OR LOW LIKELY CATEGORIES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE THE FRONT SHOULD BE CLEARING THE STATE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN...WILL TREND LOWS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY COOLER THAN MEXMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ENSEMBLES INDICATE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEARS THIS TROUGH WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...AS THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HEIGHTS WILL RISE
QUITE A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF PERIOD AS TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST.

FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD BE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED.
ENSEMBLES INDICATE VERY LITTLE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION AS UPPER
HEIGHTS RISE. WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 181800Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SCATTERED DIURNAL CLOUD COVER BASED AROUND 040 EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET.

BASED ON EXPECTED CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES...PATCHY MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RURAL AREAS TOWARDS 190600Z.

SURFACE WINDS 050-070 AT 6-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 6
KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...JAS

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