Home > Products > State Listing > Indiana Data
Latest:
 AFDIND |  AFDIWX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIND 020826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS



000
FXUS63 KIND 020826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 020900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 020752 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020752 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020752 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020752 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS
HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA YESTERDAY WILL BE OVER OHIO TODAY
AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS
TODAY.

OTHERWISE...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  MODELS MOVE A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES
OUR WAY NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS.  THE WEEKEND
WILL BE DRY...BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING
FROM LABOR DAY AND ON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUR WAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. I CAN`T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG NEXT
FEW AREAS...BUT UNLESS IT INCREASES QUICKLY WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF
NEW FORECAST.

SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S.   WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATES THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
THAT BROUGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY TO OUR REGION WAS OVER
WESTERN OHIO.  THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS TODAY. THE HRR MODEL INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...BUT IT HAS BEEN OVER AGGRESSIVE SO FAR.

FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AND
DRY FOR THE REST OF OUR REGION TODAY.

HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST
SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST WHICH IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
A MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WILL GO DRY TONIGHT AS WE WILL BE BETWEEN WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES.
THE OHIO DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST WHILE MODELS
BRING ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
THURSDAY.  WILL GO WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARDS NORTHERN OHIO.  MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT FEW DAYS
AND ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS AGAIN FRIDAY.

MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT +17 TO +19 DEGREES.  WILL
CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WITH A MOS BLEND ON HIGHS FROM
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS TO AROUND 90 IN
THE SOUTHWEST.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 ALL 3 DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

NSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE IS NOT
A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DRY FOR NOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA BY THAT TIME. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...MK



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIWX 020742
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA THIS
MORNING...DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO AS OF 07Z. BROAD 850-700
HPA WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THICKNESS MINIMUM ACCOMPANYING DEPARTING UPPER LOW. DESPITE THIS
STRONGER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREADING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE HAD A
DIFFICULT TIME FORMING...POSSIBLY IN PART DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG
DNVA WITH DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL
IN A BIT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN HOWEVER...AND EXPECTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A POCKET
OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TOWARD 12Z. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD EVENTUALLY FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT THINKING IS BEST CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...HAVE MAINTAINED IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS APPROXIMATELY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY WEAK TODAY WITH NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED...WITH STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS GIVEN SMALL MAGNITUDES TO STORM MOTIONS. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE...EVEN PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN SPOTS DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SOMEWHAT MUDDLED GIVEN INITIALLY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUED BROAD/WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HARD TO DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER REALLY ANY TIME
TONIGHT...BUT BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
STORY THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN US/SE CANADA. WITH THAT SAID STILL SEVERAL (ALBEIT LOW)
CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT PRECIPITATION GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CAPPING
AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MODEST INSTABILITY/LIMITED CIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A DISJOINTED/WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE LOWER LAKES
ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY AS THIS WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD AND ATTENDANT ILL-
DEFINED SFC TROUGH STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY BENEATH BUILDING
RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FILTER IN ON EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING DRY WITH RIDGING IN COMMAND
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL ACT TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SEND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RENEWED
STORM CHANCES (AND COOLER TEMPS) INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE CONTINUED
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF OLD VORT MAX WHICH HAS RESIDED ACROSS
THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS
MIGRATING EAST OF THE AREA...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED COVERAGE (IF OCCURS)
CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. FAVORED AREA
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING SHOULD SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA
LATER TODAY...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE FOR TAF INCLUSION GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE. FOG
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LIMITED FOR TONIGHT AND NO CHANGE TO TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS FOR TERMINALS FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
10-12Z. OTHERWISE...SFC ANTICYCLONE SINKING SOUTH OF THE AREA
SHOULD PROMOTE WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BACKING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 020742
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA THIS
MORNING...DRIFTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST OHIO AS OF 07Z. BROAD 850-700
HPA WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THICKNESS MINIMUM ACCOMPANYING DEPARTING UPPER LOW. DESPITE THIS
STRONGER ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVERSPREADING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EARLIER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ELEVATED SHOWERS HAVE HAD A
DIFFICULT TIME FORMING...POSSIBLY IN PART DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG
DNVA WITH DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX. SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL
IN A BIT ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN HOWEVER...AND EXPECTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
INDIANA/NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A POCKET
OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SHIFTS INTO NORTHWEST OHIO TOWARD 12Z. STRONGEST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE SHOULD EVENTUALLY FOCUS ACROSS SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA
LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT THINKING IS BEST CHANCE
OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WITH BROAD ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND DIURNAL
INSTABILITY...HAVE MAINTAINED IDEA OF PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS APPROXIMATELY EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY.
SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN VERY WEAK TODAY WITH NOT MUCH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION EXPECTED...WITH STILL A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS GIVEN SMALL MAGNITUDES TO STORM MOTIONS. ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS IN STORE...EVEN PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN SPOTS DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF ANY
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS.

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SOMEWHAT MUDDLED GIVEN INITIALLY WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL FORCING ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUED BROAD/WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. HARD TO DISCOUNT ISOLATED SHOWER REALLY ANY TIME
TONIGHT...BUT BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE NIGHT AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AFTER 09Z. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER MILD NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THE
STORY THROUGH LABOR DAY AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN US/SE CANADA. WITH THAT SAID STILL SEVERAL (ALBEIT LOW)
CHANCES FOR ISO-SCT PRECIPITATION GIVEN LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CAPPING
AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS SUPPORTING MODEST INSTABILITY/LIMITED CIN
FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON
THURSDAY AS A DISJOINTED/WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE LOWER LAKES
ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF BUILDING RIDGE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY INTO FRIDAY-
SATURDAY AS THIS WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD AND ATTENDANT ILL-
DEFINED SFC TROUGH STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY BENEATH BUILDING
RIDGE.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR LOOKS TO FILTER IN ON EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING DRY WITH RIDGING IN COMMAND
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL ACT TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND SEND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RENEWED
STORM CHANCES (AND COOLER TEMPS) INTO THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT-
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE CONTINUED
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF OLD VORT MAX WHICH HAS RESIDED ACROSS
THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS
MIGRATING EAST OF THE AREA...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED COVERAGE (IF OCCURS)
CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. FAVORED AREA
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING SHOULD SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA
LATER TODAY...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE FOR TAF INCLUSION GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE. FOG
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LIMITED FOR TONIGHT AND NO CHANGE TO TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS FOR TERMINALS FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
10-12Z. OTHERWISE...SFC ANTICYCLONE SINKING SOUTH OF THE AREA
SHOULD PROMOTE WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BACKING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 020546
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE CONTINUED
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF OLD VORT MAX WHICH HAS RESIDED ACROSS
THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS
MIGRATING EAST OF THE AREA...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED COVERAGE (IF OCCURS)
CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. FAVORED AREA
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING SHOULD SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA
LATER TODAY...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE FOR TAF INCLUSION GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE. FOG
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LIMITED FOR TONIGHT AND NO CHANGE TO TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS FOR TERMINALS FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
10-12Z. OTHERWISE...SFC ANTICYCLONE SINKING SOUTH OF THE AREA
SHOULD PROMOTE WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BACKING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 020546
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
146 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATES THE CONTINUED
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF OLD VORT MAX WHICH HAS RESIDED ACROSS
THE REGION THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHILE FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS
MIGRATING EAST OF THE AREA...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THE WAKE
OF THIS WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. VERY LIMITED COVERAGE (IF OCCURS)
CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN TERMINAL FORECASTS. FAVORED AREA
OF WEAK ISENTROPIC FORCING SHOULD SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA
LATER TODAY...BUT AGAIN DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO HAVE ANY
CONFIDENCE FOR TAF INCLUSION GIVEN EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE. FOG
POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE LIMITED FOR TONIGHT AND NO CHANGE TO TEMPO
MVFR VSBYS FOR TERMINALS FOR A BRIEF TIME EARLY THIS MORNING FROM
10-12Z. OTHERWISE...SFC ANTICYCLONE SINKING SOUTH OF THE AREA
SHOULD PROMOTE WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BACKING LIGHT SOUTHWEST FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 020433
AFDIND

ZCZC INDWRKAFD 020223
TTAA00 KIND DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020433
AFDIND

ZCZC INDWRKAFD 020223
TTAA00 KIND DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020433
AFDIND

ZCZC INDWRKAFD 020223
TTAA00 KIND DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020433
AFDIND

ZCZC INDWRKAFD 020223
TTAA00 KIND DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020433 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020433 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020433 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020433 RRA
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1231 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND RH TIME
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE SOME FOG AT THE SMALLER
AIRPORTS...ESPECIALLY AT BMG...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE WAS APPROCHING
THE DEW POINT. THE VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES THERE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...AND LITTLE HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE AIRMASS.

WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA...SHOULD ONLY SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL
CU AFTER 15Z WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE. MEANWHILE...WINDS WILL BE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 020215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 020215
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 020213
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPDATE...
PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS COULD
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA...SO INSERTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THOSE
AREAS. AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL...EXPECT ANY FORMATION TO BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. SO...WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME.
CURRENT TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/TDUD
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 012341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AVOIDED BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND THAT TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S LENDS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
APPEARS SW WINDS WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR WHICH
KEEP VISIBILITIES P6SM ALL NIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPO 4SM BR
MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KFWA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN TODAY...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.



&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 012341
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
741 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AVOIDED BOTH TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND THAT TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
70S LENDS SOME CONCERN FOR FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...BUT IT
APPEARS SW WINDS WILL BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT BAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR WHICH
KEEP VISIBILITIES P6SM ALL NIGHT. DECIDED TO KEEP TEMPO 4SM BR
MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MOIST LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINTS. OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF KFWA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN TODAY...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION IN THIS TAF
ISSUANCE.



&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...BENTLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 012216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 012216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 012216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 615 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

EXPECT...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO BE MINIMUL AT ISSUANCE TIME AS
THE STORMS HAVE MOVED EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY AT BMG...WHERE THE
VISIBILITY FELL TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY PERHAPS FEW-SCT CU AT
TIMES. WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SHOULD ONLY
SEE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU WITH BASES AROUND 4K FEET.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE ADIRONDACKS SHOULD
RESULT IN CALM OR LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...WINDS
WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST UP TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 012023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DECREASED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS AND SWITCHED DIRECTION TO 250
DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIND 012023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DECREASED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS AND SWITCHED DIRECTION TO 250
DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 012023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DECREASED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS AND SWITCHED DIRECTION TO 250
DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK



000
FXUS63 KIND 012023
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DECREASED WINDS A COUPLE OF KNOTS AND SWITCHED DIRECTION TO 250
DEGREES. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP/MK




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 011946
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
346 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PESKY COMPACT MIDLEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO SWIRL ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON WITH LITTLE FORWARD MOMENTUM. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 70S SUPPORTING SOME DECENT SBCAPE PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS
DESPITE VERY POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT. DPVA IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
INSTABILITY IS GENERATING SOME SCT CONVECTION...WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTH CLOSER TO THE HEIGHT ANOMALY AND ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING BUT SHOULD WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR W/SW THIS MORNING WAS ACTUALLY BEING
DRIVEN BY FOCUSED 305K ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE BACKSIDE OF
MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS (BOTH HI-RES AND
OTHERWISE) SHOW THIS AREA OF ENHANCED ASCENT AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WITH 20-25 KT LLJ SETTING UP AGAIN OVER AT LEAST OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT...PROMPTING CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS IN OUR EAST THROUGH TOMORROW. COVERAGE HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE
GIVEN WEAK FORCING AND INSTABILITY SO WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY GIVEN LIMITED UPDRAFT POTENTIAL AND VIRTUALLY NO FLOW
ALOFT. COROLLARY TO THIS IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES MANAGE TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST WILL MOVE VERY SLOW AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HIGHS TOMORROW
EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...APPROACHING 90F.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ONCE AGAIN...HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR NEEDED
RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE REGION INTO
FRIDAY WITH A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDING ITS PERIPHERY. ONE
OF THESE IS POISED TO MOVE NE OUT OF PLAINS AND THEN DROP SE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WE SHOULD BE UNCAPPED WITH AT LEAST LOW TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AROUND. WILD CARD WILL BE AMOUNT OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ITS ABILITY TO SPARK
ISOL TO MAYBE SCT CONVECTION. WILL BE KEEPING POPS SUBDUED FOR THE
TIME BEING IN THE SLGT CHC TO LOW CHC CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

BY SATURDAY...MED RANGE MODELS ALL AGREE ON 588 DM OR HIGHER UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS NUDGING INTO THE REGION AND HOLDING TIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY AROUND 90
WITH HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 90S. DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN STATES SATURDAY AND MAKE AN ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF DOES SUGGEST A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT COULD BRING AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR STORM TO THE AREA
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 011936
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011936
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011936
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011936
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011936
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF
THE REGION...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY
AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS SLOWLY SHIFT THE UPPER LOW EAST INTO OHIO LATE TONIGHT.
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...WITH THE MODELS FAIRLY EVENLY
SPLIT BETWEEN COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS...OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
(SUCH AS THE NAM). GENERALLY WENT WITH A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION THE DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS AND ATTEMPTS A BLEND.

ALSO...WHERE THE BEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY EXISTS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE I 70 CORRIDOR...THIS AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN A LITTLE WORKED
OVER WITH PREVIOUS CONVECTION AND WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
AS ANOTHER FORCING MECHANISM IN A FEW HOURS...THIS WILL SERVE TO
EVEN LESSEN CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT. SO AS FOR POP TONIGHT...KEPT
IN SLIGHT CHANCES MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF I 70.

A BLEND OF MOS SEEMS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN MODEL LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES AND CONSIDERING PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME CLOUD
COVER. FORECASTING WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON A VERY SMALL AREA AROUND
RANDOLPH COUNTY WHERE SOME CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MAY BE STILL
OCCURRING. FOR THIS WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE FAR
NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY AND INTO WED
NIGHT EXPECT HUMID...WARM BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AS THE THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.

THEN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT A VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
INDIANA. A SIMILAR SET UP IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAY
BE OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
CONSIDERING THAT THERE IS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES. TRIED NOT TO DISCOUNT THESE CHANCES...HOWEVER DID NOT
INCLUDED ANY POPS AT THIS TIME HIGHER THAN LOW CHANCE.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 011836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011836
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
236 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY
MONDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW A
FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT. AT THIS POINT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL AROUND BUT JUST A LITTLE FLATTER WILL KEEP POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORIES. FOR TEMPERATURES SHOULD SEE
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 011738
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
PRIMARILY AT KFWA...AS A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF
THOUGH. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KFWA AGAIN TONIGHT AS LLJ
RAMPS BACK UP BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF. OTHER CONCERN IS SOME PATCHY BR AROUND SUNRISE
BUT DENSE FOG NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MODEST SW SURFACE WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 011707
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 011707
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011707
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
107 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.

NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DWINDLE TO THE WEST
OF THE SITES AND STARTING TO PICK UP TO THE EAST. DON/T EXPECT ANY
OF THESE TO HAPPEN DIRECTLY OVER A SITE AT THIS POINT SO WILL LEAVE
OUT OF THE TAFS. AT KIND THOUGH WILL INCLUDE A VCTS WITH THUNDER
OCCURRING JUST TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY THIS FOR AN HOUR OR
TWO. VFR CU EXPECTED AT THE SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT THE UPPER WAVE FORCING THE
CONVECTION WILL MOVE OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
IN WITH NEAR CALM WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MVFR
FOG BASED ON LACK OF GROUND MOISTURE AT THE TAF SITES AND SOME
MIXING LEFT AS THE WAVE MOVES OUT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS IS CREEPING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER WITH THESE CELLS SHOWING ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION IF
ANY DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO OCCUR OVER THE SITES. HOWEVER KLAF AND
KHUF COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BUT NOT OVERHEAD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 220-240 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS IS CREEPING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER WITH THESE CELLS SHOWING ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION IF
ANY DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO OCCUR OVER THE SITES. HOWEVER KLAF AND
KHUF COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BUT NOT OVERHEAD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 220-240 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS IS CREEPING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER WITH THESE CELLS SHOWING ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION IF
ANY DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO OCCUR OVER THE SITES. HOWEVER KLAF AND
KHUF COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BUT NOT OVERHEAD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 220-240 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011500Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS IS CREEPING INTO WESTERN
INDIANA. HOWEVER WITH THESE CELLS SHOWING ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION IF
ANY DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO OCCUR OVER THE SITES. HOWEVER KLAF AND
KHUF COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY BUT NOT OVERHEAD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

WINDS SHOULD BE FROM 220-240 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS/CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 011354
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CELLS
APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. MAY HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
GROUP IN THE KHUF VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

OTHERWISE...FOG HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUD. MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 220-240 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS



000
FXUS63 KIND 011354
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THURSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

1330Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE OF THE HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD AND INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF CENTRAL INDIANA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THAT MUCH
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL MOVE THIS FAST INTO THE AREA SINCE THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.


NEVERTHELESS...UPDATED POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST TO INCREASE
POPS SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND THE HRRR
ANALYSIS. MADE A FEW OTHER MINOR TWEAK TO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS
FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS. MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS
LOCATED BETWEEN INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE. MOST MODELS INDICATE
MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH
INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY
EVIDENCE OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY
THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CELLS
APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. MAY HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
GROUP IN THE KHUF VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

OTHERWISE...FOG HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUD. MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 220-240 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF/JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 011035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CELLS
APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. MAY HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
GROUP IN THE KHUF VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

OTHERWISE...FOG HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUD. MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 220-240 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS



000
FXUS63 KIND 011035
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 011200Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS...ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT. THESE CELLS
APPEAR TO BE DRIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING OVER
WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. MAY HAVE TO CARRY AT LEAST A CB SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
GROUP IN THE KHUF VICINITY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. CB BASES THIS MORNING AROUND 050.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 011800Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE COVERAGE/LOCATION
OF ANY CONVECTION LATER TODAY...SO WILL LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE FORECAST
FOR NOW. LOCALIZED IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. CB BASES THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 030.

OTHERWISE...FOG HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK SO FAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CLOUD. MAY STILL SEE A PERIOD AROUND SUNRISE OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...BUT THIS THREAT SEEMS TO BE DIMINISHING.

LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BECOME 220-240 DEGREES
AT 7-10 KTS BY MIDDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JAS




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010951
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING MAY STILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS MAINLY AT KSBN THROUGH 13Z...BUT POTENTIAL APPEARS TO
BE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS INDICATIONS. MOISTURE DEPTH
APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN SCOPE THIS MORNING AND THUS
EXPECTING A RAPID BURNOFF OF ANY FOG TOWARD 12Z. OTHERWISE...A
SLOW MOVING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MEANDER
BACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MAY COMBINE WITH PEAK AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL. POTENTIAL STILL
APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW HOWEVER FOR TAF INCLUSION AND WILL CONTINUE
TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION WITH THE 12Z TAFS. WEAK WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
JET/WARM ADVECTION FORCING MAY RESULT IN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM
POTENTIAL INTO TONIGHT...BUT ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE/EXPECTED
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AFTER ANY FOG RELATED VSBY RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 13Z THIS MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 010826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 010826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 010826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 010826
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010900Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 423 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JAS
AVIATION...JP/JAS




000
FXUS63 KIND 010803
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 010803
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL STRENGTHEN
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN FLATTEN OUT SOME EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVEN
THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THUSDAY AND MOST AREAS NEXT MONDAY.

OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE PATCHY FOG SOME AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND WHETHER TO
MENTION CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.

WEATHER DEPICTION AND SATELLITE INDICATED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING. SOME AREAS COULD SEE A LITTLE MORE FOG NEXT FEW HOURS.  BUT
I DON`T THINK THERE WILL BE ANY MORE THAN WHAT HAS OCCURRED LAST FEW MORNINGS.

MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE INDICATED A SMALL CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED BETWEEN
INDIANAPOLIS AND LAFAYETTE.  MOST MODELS INDICATE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER
TODAY...HOWEVER THE RAPID REFRESH INDICATES CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL INDIANA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  I HAVE NOT SEEN ANY EVIDENCE
OF THIS HAPPENING SO FAR AND WILL KEEP EVERYTHING DRY THROUGH 12Z.

HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF THE THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY.  AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS TODAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST.

WITH MORE CLOUDS LATER TODAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND THE UPPER 80S ACROSS OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

MODELS DRIFT THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE EAST INTO OHIO TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.  THE NAM INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTH
WHILE THE GFS SHOWS LITTLE.  WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...I DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION.  BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
OUR NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION MAINLY OHIO WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR NORTHEAST.  OTHERWISE...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD KEEP IT QUITE WARM AND DRY OVER THE REST OF THE REGION WEDNEDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THAT
MODELS INDICATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BUT IN MANY
CASES THEY SEEM TO BE OVER DOING THIS WITH THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST SECTIONS AND AROUND 90 IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.  IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSE
TO A MOS BLEND ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING A LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE MAY EXTEND FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THAT TIME.
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OTHER THAT THE WEAKNESS ALOFT...THERE
IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD DRY.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DECENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY FLATTEN
THE RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA BY THAT TIME.
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
IMPACTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
IMPACTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
IMPACTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
IMPACTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010750 CCA
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IN STORE WITH MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY AND TONIGHT ATTEMPTING TO RESOLVE ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 6. DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
AS EXPANSIVE AS YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH PATCHY DENSE IS A POSSIBILITY
UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. A VORT LOBE ROTATING THROUGH THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING CIRCULATION SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST...BUT A SLOW EASTWARD
MIGRATION OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OHIO IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NORTH OF THIS CIRCULATION
IN WEAK DPVA ZONE...BUT CONTINUED DIURNAL COOLING APPEARS TO BE
LIMITING ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AS THIS VORT MAX BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK
EASTWARD LATER THIS MORNING...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER UPPER FORCING. A CONSISTENT SIGNAL ALSO
APPEARS IN GUIDANCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THIS VORT MAX...MORE TIED INTO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN ASSOCIATION WITH RETREATING THICKNESS MINIMUM.
PERHAPS BEST COVERAGE WITH THIS FORCING WILL RESIDE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT DID MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE
NORTH DID MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE SPREAD AMONG DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS REGARDING MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY NOTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WOULD SUSPECT A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN MORE ROBUST INSTABILITY OF NAM AND THE MORE
TEMPERED GFS IS REASONABLE...WITH SBCAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-2000
J/KG RANGE ANTICIPATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAKER
TODAY...AND THUS CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSEY IN NATURE WITH OVERALL
WEAK STORM MOTION VECTORS POSSIBLY FAVORING SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...BUT HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MID-
UPPER 80S MAX TEMPS.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER VORT MAX SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE AREA INTO
SOUTHERN OHIO...BUT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 850-700 HPA WAA INDUCED
FORCING WITH RAMPING UP LOW LEVEL WAA VIA 15-20 KNOT WESTERLY
LLJ/FAIRLY GOOD THERMAL PACKING ARGUES FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA
MENTION. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...BUT CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 588 DAM PLUS AT 500 MB WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLE WARMTH/HUMIDITY AND
MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SIMILAR TO WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE SHORT TERM LOW-ISOLATED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE TIED TO WEAKNESSES IN THE HEIGHT FIELD
AND POSSIBLE SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS THAT EMERGE. ONE SUCH FEATURE
OVER WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA AS OF THIS WRITING WILL LIKELY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION ALONG/EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE RETAINED.
DRY OTHERWISE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVERSPREADS IN ADVANCE OF A SMALLER SCALE/LEAD SHORTWAVE (NOW
ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS) MODELED TO LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN LAKES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. RE-AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS INTO ONTARIO WILL AID IN
STALLING/DRIFTING THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE AND POSSIBLE CIRCULATION INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS EACH DAY...BEST CHANCES (10-30%) IN THE
AFTERNOON GIVEN EXPECTATIONS FOR LOW-MODERATE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY. AS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...RETAINED A DRY/HOT
FORECAST WITH RIDGING ANTICIPATED BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 010558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
158 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING INTO
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SLOW TO EXIT TO THE EAST.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

NEAR TERM CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
IMPACTING TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER NIGHT OF
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO DROP
TO IFR/LIFR VSBYS AS OF 0530Z. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN TERMS
OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS...WITH LATEST AMDAR DATA STILL
SUGGESTING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL FLOW RAISING SIMILAR QUESTIONS
AS LAST NIGHT IN TERMS OF FOG VS STRATUS. GROUND CONDITIONS DID
DRY OUT SOMEWHAT YESTERDAY WITH BETTER INSOLATION/SFC HEATING
WHICH MAY ALSO PLAY SOME ROLE IN LIMITING EXTENT OF FOG AS
COMPARISON TO YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO IFR
VSBYS AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 09Z-12Z TIMEFRAME...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LIFR VSBYS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME PARTICULARLY AT KSBN.

OTHERWISE...DEPARTING UPPER VORT MAX ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA MAY
TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH SOME
INDICATIONS THAT EVEN KSBN COULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AS A CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION SETS UP IN THE WAKE OF
THIS VORT MAX. POINT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR PRECIP MENTION
AT THIS TIME HOWEVER AND WILL CARRY DRY/VFR FORECAST AFTER THIS
MORNINGS FOG ERODES AFTER 12Z.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 010356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 010356
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010600Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1156 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

CLEAR SKIES LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ACROSS THE
AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS AND THE OVERALL PATTERN...HAVE TRENDED
TOWARDS A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF ANY FOG AFT 13Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
REACHED AGAIN AND SCT-BKN CU WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 010200
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

DIURNAL CU HAS DISSIPATED. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO
FALL. ONGOING TAF HANDLES THIS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 010200
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1000 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

DIURNAL CU HAS DISSIPATED. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUE TO
FALL. ONGOING TAF HANDLES THIS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 010144
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 010144
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 010144
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 944 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STUBBORN ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST
FORECAST AREA. LIGHTNING HAS MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH THOUGH. KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THEY SHOULD END WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

LOWERED CLOUD COVER MOST AREAS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS SEEN ON
SATELLITE. THIS SHOULD HELP THE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP SO LEFT THE FOG
MENTION AS IS. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD/50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIWX 312334
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
734 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER
MIXING ACROSS NW/NC INDIANA TODAY... DOUBT THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF
THE LIFR VSBYS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AT KSBN. FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY ON TUE MORNING WITH JUST SCT CU AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WK CUT-OFF UPR LOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT PRBLY WONT IMPACT KSBN/KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 312334
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
734 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

RADIATIONAL COOLING FOG EXPECTED TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH A LITTLE DEEPER
MIXING ACROSS NW/NC INDIANA TODAY... DOUBT THERE WILL BE A REPEAT OF
THE LIFR VSBYS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AT KSBN. FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY ON TUE MORNING WITH JUST SCT CU AND VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY. WK CUT-OFF UPR LOW OVER
CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE AREA
TUESDAY BUT PRBLY WONT IMPACT KSBN/KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...JT


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 312305
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 312305
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 010000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 6 HOURS. MVFR TO IFR DIURNAL FOG
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z-13Z. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER
14Z.

WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN...WILL STICK
WITH A PERSISTENCE TYPE FORECAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 4F TONIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION WILL BE
IN PLACE. THUS WILL ONCE AGAIN TREND TOWARD A SIMILAR FORECAST AS
THE PAST FEW NIGHTS WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT HUF...BMG AND
LAF.

AS HEATING AND MIXING RESUMES ON TUESDAY...A QUICK RETURN TO VFR
IS EXPECTED. AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ARE REACH SCT
VFR LEVEL DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KIND 312034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATED/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL CU
SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS HEATING IS LOST. ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 312034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATED/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL CU
SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS HEATING IS LOST. ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 312034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATED/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL CU
SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS HEATING IS LOST. ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP/JP




000
FXUS63 KIND 312034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 312100Z IND TAF UPDATED/...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL CU
SLOWLY DISSIPATES AS HEATING IS LOST. ONGOING TAFS IN GOOD SHAPE.
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP/JP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311958
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF FORECAST PD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
EXISTS YET AGAIN FOR PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG ACROSS NRN IN.
RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER MIXOUT TODAY/HIGH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BODE
WELL FOR BR FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION
PEAKS 10-12 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311958
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND THIS
MAY ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON TUESDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SBCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH MODEST 20-25 KT EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION KMZZ INTO WEST
CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS PRIMARILY ALONG LATENT/DIFFUSE
SFC BOUNDARY AND MODICUM OF DPVA FROM ORPHANED MID LEVEL VORTICITY
CENTER OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. WITH LACK OF SIG FORCING FEATURE/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATE CONVECTION AGAIN TO BE LARGELY TIED TO
DIURNAL HEAT CYCLE/DISSIPATING TOWARD SUNSET. LOSS OF CU/WEAK
GRADIENT TO SET STAGE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SHARP EARLY AM INVERSION
AND BR/FG POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN LOOMS. DRIER RH CROSS SECTIONS LESS
SUGGESTIVE OF STRATUS AS SEEN PAST TWO DAYS. XOVER TEMPS ACRS CWA
IN UPR 60S SUGGEST AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. OPT FOR AREAS
OF FOG MENTION ACRS NWRN/NRN WHERE MARKEDLY SLOWER MIXING OBSERVED
TODAY. MIGRATION OF VORT MAX TO FAR WCNTL INDIANA BY
DAYBREAK...THEN FEATURE CATCHES INTO SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NORTHERN STREAM AS NRN RIDGE OF REX IS WEAKENS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY GREATER SFC BASED DESTABILIZATION POINT
TO LOW CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 80S STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WED
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
WHEN WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE...WE DEAL WITH THESE
PESKY WEAKER SHORT WAVES RIDING THE RIDGE THAT THREATEN TO FIRE
OFF SOME SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY AND THE
SUBTLENESS OF THE PASSING WAVES...OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED-FRI...BUT LIMITED IT TO MAINLY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THAT
WILL BE WHEN MOST INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH THE WAVE TUE/WED...AND EVEN SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TUE NIGHT/WED AM. BUT GIVEN THE LOWER
CONFIDENCE KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF FORECAST PD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
EXISTS YET AGAIN FOR PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG ACROSS NRN IN.
RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER MIXOUT TODAY/HIGH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BODE
WELL FOR BR FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION
PEAKS 10-12 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...MCD
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311946
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

JUST IN TIME FOR THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER...FAIRLY STRONG
RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL KEEP CONDTIONS
WARM AND HUMID THROUGHOUT THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COMPACT CUTOFF CIRCULATION DRIFTS OVER THE AREA...BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH
23Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAS WANED SIGNIFICANTLY AS
AGITATED CUMULUS HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO BECOME MORE THAN THAT
WITH ONLY A FEW TINY CELLS FIRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE OVERNIGHT AS
AN LINGERING INSTABILITY RAPIDLY WANES TOWARDS SUNSET.

PERSISTENCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PATCHY FOG IS A GOOD
BET AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE INSERTED A
MENTION IN THE GRIDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SPOTTY DENSE
FOG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED OK WITH MINOR TWEAKS. THICKNESSES AND
DEWPOINTS SUGGEST WE MAY BE JUST A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

WILL CARRY A 20 POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE CUTOFF DISTURBANCE OVER THE AREA CIRCLES AROUND
AND BEGINS TO DRIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE
ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN THIS
ISOLATED MENTION. AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND WE LOSE EVEN THE MODEST UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OF THE WEAK WAVE OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...JUST CANNOT
JUSTIFY CARRYING POPS EVEN THOUGH A WARM AND FAIRLY HUMID AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
TOMORROW WILL BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND LIKELY OVER BY 00Z ONCE
AGAIN.

CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED A BIT TOO LOW ON MAXES PER 850 TEMPS
AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES EACH DAY AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH
THIS IN MIND. MINS WERE A BIT CLOSER ALTHOUGH DID MAKE MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS SOME AREAS AS DIURNAL COOLING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OK EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MB/CP
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MB/CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MB/CP
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311832
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
232 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. MODELS AGREE
THAT AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL INDIANA BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE
ORGANIZED SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY DURING THE DAY...THEN CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ALSO INDICATE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH...BRINGING THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OTHERWISE
EXPECT DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....MB/CP
AVIATION...CP




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311737
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
137 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP
UP STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC
TROUGH...LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF
THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP.
DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER
TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
RESIDUAL VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL
AREA YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME
DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD
BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING ON TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN
THE AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED
WITH VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK
PACIFIC ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY
AT THIS TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE
QUESTIONABLE SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO
ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING
TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF FORECAST PD. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL
EXISTS YET AGAIN FOR PERIOD OF IFR VSBYS IN BR/FG ACROSS NRN IN.
RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER MIXOUT TODAY/HIGH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BODE
WELL FOR BR FORMATION TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SHARP SFC BASED INVERSION
PEAKS 10-12 UTC.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311725
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 109 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AT THE SITES. WHILE A BROKEN DECK COULD BRIEFLY FORM BELOW
3000 FT THINK BASES SHOULD RISE TO ABOVE 3000 FT SHORTLY BASED ON
HEATING AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE A SHOWER OR STORM IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY OF THE SITES FROM NOW THROUGH THE EVENING...THE
PROBABILITY AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION AT A SPECIFIC TIME IS LOW ENOUGH
THAT IT IS NOT WORTH INCLUDING IN THE TAF. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
AIRMASS OR CONDITIONS WILL FORECAST FOG DEVELOPING AT THE SITES
AFTER AROUND 7-9Z AND MIXING BACK OUT BY AROUND 13Z. AT THE OUTLYING
SITES COULD SEE IFR OR LOWER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED
THESE IN TEMPO GROUPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY AND LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...CP



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311558
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1158 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MUGGY
AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP ONLY TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S AS A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LOTHAMER
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIND 311421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AGAIN.

SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS. EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING
IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AGAIN.

SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS. EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING
IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AGAIN.

SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS. EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING
IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP




000
FXUS63 KIND 311421
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AGAIN.

SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT
CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS. EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING
IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH/CP



000
FXUS63 KIND 311345
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIND 311345
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MOST FOG HAS
BURNED OFF. MUGGY WITH TEMPS AT 1330Z IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.

LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. AREA OF SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITHIN A POCKET OF SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY
AND ON THE EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. STORMS HAVE GOTTEN TO WITHIN
ABOUT A COUNTY OF THE INDIANA STATE LINE...AND HAVE PROMPTED AN
EARLIER INTRODUCTION OF ISOLATED POPS IN THE TERRE HAUTE AREA AS
OF 14Z.

STILL ANTICIPATE GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE COMES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND INTERACTS WITH AN
ELONGATED MID LEVEL VORT AXIS OVER THE REGION. NOT EVERYONE WILL
SEE STORMS BUT THOSE THAT DO ARE LIKELY TO SEE QUICK SOAKERS WITH
STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 20MPH. COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CELL BUT LACK OF BL SHEAR AND FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP STORMS SUBSEVERE WITH PULSING INTENSITY. HIGHS WILL RISE
GENERALLY INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH



000
FXUS63 KIND 311101
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY BE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SOME DENSE FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN INDIANA NEAR A REMNANT
FRONTAL ZONE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH FOG WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. WILL MONITOR TRENDS UNTIL ISSUANCE TIME TO SEE
IF FOG NEEDS TO BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

OTHERWISE...MODEL DATA SUGGEST AN ELONGATED VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED
UPPER LEVEL COLD POCKET WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THIS MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS DURING
THOSE TIMES.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE A LITTLE ON
THE COOL SIDE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL BUMP UP THE GUIDANCE
A FEW DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MODEL DATA INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND ASSOCIATED COLD POCKET WILL LINGER
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND COLD POCKET ALOFT
MAY SPARK SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY. WILL KEEP SOME CHANCE POPS GOING ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING TO COVER THIS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
THIS SHEAR AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST AS UPPER HEIGHTS
AND TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT. THIS MAY HELP TO CAP OFF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THIS...WILL GO DRY ON WEDNESDAY.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK REASONABLE...SO WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK AND WEAKEN SOME EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AND FAR SOUTH SUNDAY.  AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO STAY DRY.

WENT CLOSE TO MODEL INITIALIZATION ON TEMPERATURES...BUT TWEAKED POPS
DOWN SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS THURSDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOS SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MVFR OR IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT OUTLYING SITES ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AND AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT.  OTHERWISE...VFR.

FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED CU WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.  SOME MODELS INDICATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR ANY TIMING IN TAFS.
EVEN VCTS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH AREAS OF FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....JH
AVIATION...JH




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

IFR-LIFR STRATUS/FOG AT THE TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY KSBN) SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. VSBYS/CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER
PAST HOUR AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED STORM AT KFWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/PROBABILITY
REMAINS TO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION. BR/FG FORMATION MAY ONCE AGAIN
BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATER TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LACKING FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

IFR-LIFR STRATUS/FOG AT THE TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY KSBN) SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. VSBYS/CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER
PAST HOUR AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED STORM AT KFWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/PROBABILITY
REMAINS TO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION. BR/FG FORMATION MAY ONCE AGAIN
BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATER TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LACKING FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




000
FXUS63 KIWX 311041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

IFR-LIFR STRATUS/FOG AT THE TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY KSBN) SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. VSBYS/CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER
PAST HOUR AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED STORM AT KFWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/PROBABILITY
REMAINS TO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION. BR/FG FORMATION MAY ONCE AGAIN
BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATER TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LACKING FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA



000
FXUS63 KIWX 311041
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A WARM AND PARTLY
CLOUDY MONDAY AS HIGHS REACH THE MID 80S. THIS WARM AND MUGGY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND ELEVATED SFC DEWPOINTS HAS
ALLOWED WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF A DIFFUSE SFC
TROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF THE HWY 24
CORRIDOR. GIVEN CURRENT OBS, HIGH SFC-900 MB RH FIELDS, AND WHAT
OCCURRED UPSTREAM YESTERDAY HAVE OPTED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THROUGH 13Z IN THESE AREAS. DIURNAL MIX OUT/UP TO A SCT-BKN CU
FIELD IS THEN EXPECTED MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

BUILDING HEAT/INSTABILITY FOR THE AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW POP UP
STORMS TO FIRE AMID THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SFC TROUGH...LOCATED ON
THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF LEFTOVER WEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD. THIS FAVORS AREAS MAINLY SE OF THE HWY 24 CORRIDOR IN
INDIANA AND OHIO FOR A MENTIONABLE LOW POP. DRY/WARM OTHERWISE WITH
FOG POSSIBLY A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS.


&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WITH MAIN FORECAST THEMES CENTERING ON INCREASED HEAT...AND
DIURNALLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE RESIDUAL
VORT MAX FROM SYSTEM WHICH SHEARED OUT OVER THE LOCAL AREA
YESTERDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MORNING DEPICTING SOME DISCERNIBLE
UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND COULD BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WAA BEGINNING TO RAMP UP IN THE
AFTERNOON...EFFECTS FROM WAA INDUCED CLOUDS/DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH
VORT MAX SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HAVE KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY AT THIS TIME BUT SOME
POSSIBILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
COMBINATION OF MEANDERING VORT MAX AND SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING COOL POCKET. WEDNESDAY POPS MAY BE A BIT
MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH CONSENSUS OF LATEST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
TENDING TO DRIFT THIS VORT MAX SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HESITANT TO
PULL ISO POPS FOR WEDNESDAY HOWEVER GIVEN BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COUPLED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER STORY FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE
THE TRANSITION TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH EXPECTED BETTER
INSOLATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WAA ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE
UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH VERY WEAK PACIFIC
ORIGIN WAVES MAY TRY TO PROGRESS THROUGH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN WEAK NATURE OF FORCING AND THE LIKELY MORE QUESTIONABLE
SFC BASED INSTABILITY BY THIS TIMEFRAME. WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CANADA/NORTHEAST CONUS SHOULD TEND TO ALLOW NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING TEMPS IN CHECK INTO MID 80S. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CONUS.

 &&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

LIGHT WINDS, RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE, AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ALREADY ALLOWING LIFR FOG TO FILL IN JUST NNW OF KFWA AND
ALL AROUND KSBN. SEE NO REASON WHY FOG DOESN`T FILL IN AT EACH
TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH SOME QUESTION REMAINS ON
WHETHER 15 KT FLOW AT 925 MB PROVIDES ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP THIS A
STRATUS/FOG MIX INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD QUARTER MILE OR LESS
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

IFR-LIFR STRATUS/FOG AT THE TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY KSBN) SHOULD
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS
ANTICIPATED BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. VSBYS/CIGS HAVE IMPROVED OVER
PAST HOUR AT KSBN...ALTHOUGH STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SLIGHT
CONCERN FOR AN ISOLATED STORM AT KFWA BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH
A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VICINITY...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE/PROBABILITY
REMAINS TO LOW FOR A VCTS MENTION. BR/FG FORMATION MAY ONCE AGAIN
BECOME AN ISSUE BY LATER TONIGHT GIVEN RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE
MOISTURE AND LACKING FLOW.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     INZ003>009-012>017.

MI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ077>081.

OH...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005.

LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL/MARSILI


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities