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000
FXUS63 KIND 252332
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
732 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PULLED EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTHEAST PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 260000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 723 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AT THE SITES ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT.
WIND GUSTS WILL LET UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WHERE THEY
HAVEN/T ALREADY BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO CALM. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AFTER AROUND 5Z AND THEN IFR CEILINGS STARTING IN THE
7-9Z TIMEFRAME. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND
INVERSION IN THE SOUNDINGS ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES...AND COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS IS ONLY MODERATE AS GFS MODEL
IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC. BY AROUND 15Z TUESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES
SOME IMPROVEMENT CAN BE EXPECTED AND THUS BROUGHT CEILINGS UP TO
MVFR. WIND GUSTS SHOULD RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH...WITH WINDS 8-14
KTS AND GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THAT COULD BRING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SITES...BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY HIGH REGARDING
TIMING AND PLACEMENT HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH FOR NOW.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 252226
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
626 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PULLED EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTHEAST PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DETERIORATING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LIGHT
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS THAT HAVE RAISED JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. KEPT
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE IT SHOULD
BE OVER WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 252226
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
626 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PULLED EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTHEAST PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DETERIORATING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LIGHT
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS THAT HAVE RAISED JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. KEPT
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE IT SHOULD
BE OVER WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 252226
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
626 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 626 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PULLED EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOUTHEAST PER RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DETERIORATING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LIGHT
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS THAT HAVE RAISED JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. KEPT
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE IT SHOULD
BE OVER WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/MK
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 252028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DETERIORATING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LIGHT
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS THAT HAVE RAISED JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. KEPT
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE IT SHOULD
BE OVER WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 252028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DETERIORATING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LIGHT
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS THAT HAVE RAISED JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. KEPT
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE IT SHOULD
BE OVER WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 252028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DETERIORATING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LIGHT
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS THAT HAVE RAISED JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. KEPT
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE IT SHOULD
BE OVER WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 252028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DETERIORATING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LIGHT
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS THAT HAVE RAISED JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. KEPT
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE IT SHOULD
BE OVER WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 252028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DETERIORATING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LIGHT
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS THAT HAVE RAISED JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. KEPT
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE IT SHOULD
BE OVER WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 252028
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 428 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DETERIORATING TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A
RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR SCT LIGHT
AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS AND CEILINGS THAT HAVE RAISED JUST ABOVE
MVFR. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MORE
SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED AND ANY SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END. KEPT
VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT ALL SITES BUT KLAF...WHERE IT SHOULD
BE OVER WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KIWX 252015
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
415 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 252015
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
415 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 252015
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
415 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 252015
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
415 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
70S TO THE LOW 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 251938
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 251938
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 251938
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 251938
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT MAX CURRENTLY LIFTING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES IS BRINGING AN END TO SCT SHOWERS FROM WEST
TO EAST AS PLANNED. MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GUSTY WINDS
WITH PBL MIXING JUST DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN SOME GUSTS AROUND 35
KTS...AIDED IN SOME SPOTS BY LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. LLJ IS
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH AS PARENT WAVE LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND GRADIENT RELAXES. LATEST SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN AMBIENT WIND GUSTS AND EXPECT THAT TREND
TO CONTINUE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LOSS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY OVERNIGHT. PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED BUT STEADY SOUTHWEST WIND
AND INCREASING CLOUDS TOWARD DAYBREAK SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIFTS
NORTHEAST. WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEST CVA DOES PASS JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST BUT
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCED ASCENT TO TOUCH OFF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER
SURGE IN LOW LEVEL THETA-E WITH INCREASING LLJ. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND DIURNAL HEATING. MOST OF LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST SCT
CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING AROUND NOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING. INHERITED LIKELY POPS SEEM
APPROPRIATE AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ADD SOME TEMPORAL DETAIL.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND
30 KTS WHICH IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION BUT
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMIT 0-1KM MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OR LESS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHEARING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK/TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHUNTING DEEPER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS
TIME...BUT WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WOULD EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INVOF
THIS FEATURE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES SOUTHERN/EASTERN
ZONES REMOVED FROM STABLE LAKE MI PUSH).

WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW/SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE A PERIOD OF
FAIR WX LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF THERMAL ADVECTION COMBINED WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A
MILD THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER
GIVEN INFILTRATION OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. LATER FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RENEWED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS A STRONG
NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY TRACKING THROUGH SE CANADA FORCES AN
ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA...WITH MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING PLAINS
UPPER WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 251828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SCT LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND COVER AGE SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER. FOR NOW
HAVE USED VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND
LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 251828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
228 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THUS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

TAIL END OF VORTICITY CENTER CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EXPECTED TO BRUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER WAVE WHICH
PASSED EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MAY NEED TO KEEP A POP OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNSET...OTHERWISE
ANY OTHER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS UPPER SUPPORT ENDS.

OTHERWISE...NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN
TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THIS FEATURE.
WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS SOUTHWEST.

THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MODELS INDICATE TEXAS UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THIS
WAVE...WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE THE
GFS IS A LITTLE EARLIER. WILL GO LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
LAPSE RATES/DEEP SHEAR LOOK RATHER MARGINAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION AT
THIS TIME ON TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY
STEEPEN SOME DURING THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS A PERIODIC THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH THE FLOW. MODELS SUGGEST LAPSE RATES MAY BE QUITE A BIT
STEEPER BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUGGESTING BETTER INSTABILITY BY
THEN. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CONVECTIVE THREAT MAY GET
MORE SUPPRESSED BY THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS START TO RISE AGAIN...BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS LOOK OK FOR THE MOST PART. THE LOWS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE A LITTLE COOL...SO WILL NUDGE UP THE NUMBERS
A BIT IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SCT LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND COVER AGE SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER. FOR NOW
HAVE USED VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND
LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 251819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
219 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SCT LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND COVER AGE SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER. FOR NOW
HAVE USED VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND
LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251819
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
219 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE...CHANGEABLE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD.

GFS DEPICTS WARM AND HUMID SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS INDIANA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. MINIMAL SUPPORT IS IN PLACE
ALOFT AS WEAK RIDGING PRIMARILY REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS AND GIVEN THE WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS A DIURNAL SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

ON SATURDAY A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN IDEAL
CONVERGENCE AREA FOR CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

BY MONDAY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LOOKS TO PUSH EAST
IN TO THE OHIO VALLEY...PROVIDING MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SCT LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND COVER AGE SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER. FOR NOW
HAVE USED VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND
LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 251721
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SCT LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND COVER AGE SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER. FOR NOW
HAVE USED VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND
LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 251721
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SCT LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND COVER AGE SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER. FOR NOW
HAVE USED VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND
LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251721
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251721
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251721
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER IN LOW END VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
SCT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ARE ALSO CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THESE SHOWERS WILL EXIT DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS BUT UPSTREAM OBS STILL SHOW SPORADIC MVFR STRATOCU
THROUGH WESTERN ILLINOIS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY NOT
SCATTER OUT UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT NEXT WAVE WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COULD
LEAD TO SOME FUEL ALTERNATE STRATUS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PER
LATEST GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS/MOS GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD WITH
HIGH END MVFR FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS NECESSARY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THE VERY END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 251721
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SCT LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND COVER AGE SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER. FOR NOW
HAVE USED VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND
LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 251721
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
121 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR TO MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DETERIORATING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 14Z TUESDAY.

SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH A
WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE IDEAL
CONDITIONS FOR SCT LIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MORE SUBSIDENCE
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND COVER AGE SHOULD DIMINISH FURTHER. FOR NOW
HAVE USED VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SOME RECENT RAINS AND PLENTY OF
MOISTURE...EXPECT SOME MVFR FOG PARTICULARLY AT HUF...BMG...AND
LAF.

AFTER SUN UP ON TUESDAY...MORNING FOG QUICK QUICKLY BURN OFF AS
YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CCLS NEAR 3500FT...WITH
ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS. THUS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR CIGS AS
DAYTIME HEATING RESUMES.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIWX 251539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251539
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWEEPS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
OTHERWISE...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS COMING WEEKEND. HIGHS
THIS WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS
AROUND 60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MARSILI/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 251437
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1037 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT FEW HOURS AS ONGOING
SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOWER LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LIMITED SHRA COVERAGE ON RADAR...HAVE TRENDED
PRECIP MENTION TO VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MANY SITES STARTING TO DROP OFF TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING /AROUND 15Z/ SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT STILL UNABLE TO PICK
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 25 TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLY BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MVFR BR AND/OR A STRATUS DECK LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS ABATE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 251437
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1037 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT FEW HOURS AS ONGOING
SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD LOWER LEVEL SATURATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LIMITED SHRA COVERAGE ON RADAR...HAVE TRENDED
PRECIP MENTION TO VCSH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

BETTER SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MANY SITES STARTING TO DROP OFF TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING /AROUND 15Z/ SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT STILL UNABLE TO PICK
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 25 TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLY BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MVFR BR AND/OR A STRATUS DECK LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS ABATE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 251420
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MANY SITES STARTING TO DROP OFF TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING /AROUND 15Z/ SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT STILL UNABLE TO PICK
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 25 TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLY BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MVFR BR AND/OR A STRATUS DECK LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS ABATE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS












000
FXUS63 KIND 251420
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1017 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

APPEAR UPPER WAVE WILL PASS OFF TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO SHOULD SEE THE DIMINISHING TREND IN
THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE. ANOTHER POSSIBLE WAVE MAY BRUSH THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE
PRECIPITATION THREAT A BIT IN THOSE AREAS LATER.

ALL IN ALL...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

MAY SEE CLOUD COVER THIN OUT SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOSTLY CLOUDY
FOR SKY COVER SHOULD STILL WORK. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...WILL LOWER
THE HIGHS TODAY ABOUT A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MANY SITES STARTING TO DROP OFF TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING /AROUND 15Z/ SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT STILL UNABLE TO PICK
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 25 TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLY BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MVFR BR AND/OR A STRATUS DECK LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS ABATE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIWX 251116
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
716 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251116
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
716 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251116
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
716 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 251116
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
716 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. NOTABLE CHGS FM 06Z BASED ON UPSTREAM
RADAR DVLPMNT...NAMELY SHIFTING VCSH MENTION TO KFWA EARLY ON AND
ADDING TEMPO GROUP FOR ADDNL SCT SHRA DVLPMNT TWD THE NOON HOUR
BASED ON FVRBLY IMPLIED BUT LIMITED DESTABILIZATION TRENDS THROUGH
THIS MORNING SEEN IN LATEST HIGHRES GUIDANCE. HWVR PRIMARY
DIFFICULTY WILL AGAIN BE STG SFC GRADIENT WINDS W/MIXED LYR ALREADY
BEGINNING TO RESPOND SOUTH FM CNTRL IL EWD THROUGH CNTRL IN. SLWR
EWD DEPARTURE OF LL WIND MAX INVOF OF KFWA SUGGEST BTR POTENTIAL FOR
35KT GUSTS THERE EARLY THIS AFTN.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 251057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MANY SITES STARTING TO DROP OFF TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING /AROUND 15Z/ SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT STILL UNABLE TO PICK
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 25 TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLY BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MVFR BR AND/OR A STRATUS DECK LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS ABATE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MANY SITES STARTING TO DROP OFF TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING /AROUND 15Z/ SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT STILL UNABLE TO PICK
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 25 TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLY BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MVFR BR AND/OR A STRATUS DECK LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS ABATE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 251057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MANY SITES STARTING TO DROP OFF TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING /AROUND 15Z/ SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT STILL UNABLE TO PICK
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 25 TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLY BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MVFR BR AND/OR A STRATUS DECK LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS ABATE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 251057
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
657 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 632 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

MANY SITES STARTING TO DROP OFF TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING /AROUND 15Z/ SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE
SITES ALONG WITH THE MENTION OF SHOWERS...BUT STILL UNABLE TO PICK
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR WINDS...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PICKING UP EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED
WIND GUSTS AT A FEW OF THE TERMINALS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND 25 TO 30
KT IS POSSIBLY BY LATE THIS MORNING.

MVFR BR AND/OR A STRATUS DECK LOOKING LIKELY TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
AFTER WINDS ABATE BY LATE EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK
TO VFR BY 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE UPSTREAM CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THIS
POINT...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADD SOME FORCING AND
MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR. SHOULD SEE THIS
MOVE INTO KHUF AROUND 8Z...KBMG AROUND 9Z...KIND 10Z AND KLAF 11Z. WILL
KEEP THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK
WITH VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT
SHOWER MENTION...BUT UNABLE TO PICK PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC
THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

FOR WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKING UP. THIS COULD ALSO BRING SOME WIND GUSTS
BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER AROUND 9Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
STILL PRETTY LOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL PICK BACK
UP LATER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS STARTING MID
MORNING AND STAYING THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND OBS UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 250827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE UPSTREAM CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THIS
POINT...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADD SOME FORCING AND
MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR. SHOULD SEE THIS
MOVE INTO KHUF AROUND 8Z...KBMG AROUND 9Z...KIND 10Z AND KLAF 11Z. WILL
KEEP THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK
WITH VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT
SHOWER MENTION...BUT UNABLE TO PICK PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC
THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

FOR WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKING UP. THIS COULD ALSO BRING SOME WIND GUSTS
BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER AROUND 9Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
STILL PRETTY LOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL PICK BACK
UP LATER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS STARTING MID
MORNING AND STAYING THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND OBS UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 250827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WHEN WEAK RIDGING FORMS
ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST
THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE UPSTREAM CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THIS
POINT...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADD SOME FORCING AND
MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR. SHOULD SEE THIS
MOVE INTO KHUF AROUND 8Z...KBMG AROUND 9Z...KIND 10Z AND KLAF 11Z. WILL
KEEP THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK
WITH VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT
SHOWER MENTION...BUT UNABLE TO PICK PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC
THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

FOR WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKING UP. THIS COULD ALSO BRING SOME WIND GUSTS
BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER AROUND 9Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
STILL PRETTY LOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL PICK BACK
UP LATER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS STARTING MID
MORNING AND STAYING THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND OBS UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 250819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 250819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 250819
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
419 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF LIFTS NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THIS
COMING WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST. HIGHS THIS
WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS AROUND
60 TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SW OVR SE KS THIS MORNING WILL SHEAR NEWD THROUGH WI THIS AFTN WHILE
SIG MIDLVL DRYSLOT ADVTS NEWD UP ACRS THE CWA THIS AFTN. INBTWN LL
THETA-E BURST ALG NOSE OF LLJ ABT THE ONLY FORCING MECHANISM OF NOTE
NR TERM YET RUNS COUNTER TO WWD DISPLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT UPR JET
STREAK NOT TO MENTION BTR SFC BASED MSTR TRANSPORT. HWVR POCKET OF
MORE VIGOROUS SHRA OVR WRN KY ERLY THIS MORNING XPCD TO CARRY NWD
THROUGH NW CWA THROUGH MID MORNING WHERE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONFINED.
OTRWS TRUNCATED POPS FURTHER THIS AFTN AND DROPPED ENTIRELY
OVERNIGHT.

PRIMARY ITEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE ESCALATION OF GRADIENT WINDS
LTR THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTN. INCOHERENT UPSTREAM CLD MASS
STEMMING FM GENERAL DECAYING/BKN BAND OF SHRA THROUGH CNTRL/SRN IL
SUGGESTS POCKETS OF INSOLATION WILL DVLP BY MID MORNING PRIOR TO
ARRIVAL OF STG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCD/W DRYSLOT THIS AFT. GIVEN SLOW
EXIT/DISSIPATION OF LLJ SOME CONCERN EXISTS W/POTENTIAL MOMENTUM
TRANSFER THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY WELL MIXED AND DEEPENING BNDRY LYR.
00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS PORTENTS SFC GUSTS TO 35KTS THIS AFTN
W/VARIOUS MIX DOWN TOOLS INDICATING 40KT GUSTS PSBL. HWVR MORE
RECENT UPSTREAM SHRA DVLPMNT THROUGH FAR WRN KY AND MORE VIGOROUS
CLD DVLPMNT THERE MAY SEDATE MORE RAPID HEATING THROUGH MORNING TIED
TO STGR FLW ALOFT AND CURTAIL THIS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL JUST BUMP
WINDS HIGHER YET HOLD BLO ADVISORY CRITERIA AND PASS ON TO NXT SHIFT
TO MONITOR.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS ON TRACK
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY. NCEP MODELS AND
THE ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE TROF EJECTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERMAL AND WIND PROFILES
INDICATE STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
HOWEVER...FACTORS LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE FAIRLY STABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH GENERALLY TALL BUT THIN CAPES PER 00Z GFS
BUFKIT AND MARGINAL WIND SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCAL FLOODING POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AND A FAIRLY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...KEPT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT DRY. STORM
CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM FROM THE WEST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL COME CLOSE TO
PHASING WITH A NORTHERN SHORT WAVE TROF DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL INTERACT THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE SHORT WAVE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM. FOR NOW...GIVEN
THIS UNCERTAINTY...KEPT MAINLY MID/CHANCE RANGE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE SUB TROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS COULD REALLY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
CAN NOT RULE OUT THE GFS FCST MEX HIGH OF 90 DEGREES FOR LIMA ON
FRIDAY SO RAISED HIGHS TO 82 TO 86 FRIDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR 17C. HIGHS SHOULD BY ABLE TO CLIMB TO AT LEAST 80 DEGREES
EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 250801
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
401 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK
AS A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE...AND PERIODIC
UPPER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.

INCREASING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS SPREADING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AS WARM FRONT PUSHES FARTHER INTO MIDWEST. AS A
RESULT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY...GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
INDIANA AT THIS TIME.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT COMBINED WITH A 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCH
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AFTER MON 18Z WEAK RIDGING FORMS ALOFT.
AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY KEEP LIKELY POPS IN FORECAST THROUGH LATE
MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA.

DESPITE WEAK DYNAMICS THROUGH THE DAY...DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS...TRENDED ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH.  THIS WILL HELP HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT...AND CONFIDENCE WAS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW THOUGH ON
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL JET OF 80 PLUS KNOTS. THESE DYNAMICS COUPLED
WITH THE RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN
WAKE OF COLD FRONT...BUT YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE ALOFT SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE END OF SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPS...CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

A RAINY AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN STORE FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO
DEVIATE FAR FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

FIRST STARTING ON THURSDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE LOW CHANCE
POPS AND ISOLATED THUNDER DURING THIS PERIOD.

THEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY PROVIDING
A FORCING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS HIGHER POPS...INCLUDING LIKELY AT TIMES ARE
INCLUDED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE UPSTREAM CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THIS
POINT...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADD SOME FORCING AND
MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR. SHOULD SEE THIS
MOVE INTO KHUF AROUND 8Z...KBMG AROUND 9Z...KIND 10Z AND KLAF 11Z. WILL
KEEP THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK
WITH VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT
SHOWER MENTION...BUT UNABLE TO PICK PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC
THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

FOR WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKING UP. THIS COULD ALSO BRING SOME WIND GUSTS
BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER AROUND 9Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
STILL PRETTY LOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL PICK BACK
UP LATER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS STARTING MID
MORNING AND STAYING THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND OBS UPSTREAM TODAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 250556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDS THIS PD. LLWS CONCERN REMAINS INTACT IN
DEFERENCE TO LLJ IN PLACE THIS MORNING. OTRWS KEPT VCSH
MENTION/TIMING INVOF KSBN LTR THIS MORNING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY ACRS ERN IL HOLDS TOGETHER. OTRWS POOR LL MSTR RTN
UNDERNEATH ENCROCHING DRYSLOT THIS AFTN OBVIATES ANY FURTHER
SENSIBLE WX MENTION FOR THE VALID TAF PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 250508
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
108 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO LOW POPS THERE NOW LOOK GOOD. INSTABILITY
IS MEAGER AT THE MOMENT...BUT AN 850MB JET WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT.

THE JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO THE
HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK GOOD. ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING BASED
ON LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 107 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE UPSTREAM CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR AT THIS
POINT...AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADD SOME FORCING AND
MOISTURE THAT SHOULD BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR. SHOULD SEE THIS
MOVE INTO KHUF AROUND 8Z...KBMG AROUND 9Z...KIND 10Z AND KLAF 11Z. WILL
KEEP THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK
WITH VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR
WITH DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH
THIS SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT
SHOWER MENTION...BUT UNABLE TO PICK PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SPECIFIC
THUNDER OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.

FOR WINDS...SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET PICKING UP. THIS COULD ALSO BRING SOME WIND GUSTS
BACK INTO THE TAF SITES AFTER AROUND 9Z...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS
STILL PRETTY LOW. HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WIND GUSTS WILL PICK BACK
UP LATER THIS MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS STARTING MID
MORNING AND STAYING THROUGH THE DAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND OBS UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 250216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO LOW POPS THERE NOW LOOK GOOD. INSTABILITY
IS MEAGER AT THE MOMENT...BUT AN 850MB JET WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT.

THE JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO THE
HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK GOOD. ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING BASED
ON LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS WITH IT. SHOULD SEE THIS MOVE INTO
KHUF AROUND 8Z...KLAF AROUND 9Z AND KIND/KBMG AROUND 10Z. WILL KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK WITH
VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT SHOWER
MENTION...BUT DIDN/T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING/PLACEMENT TO
INCLUDE TEMPO OR EXPLICIT THUNDER.

FOR WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING 12-18 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND PASS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE GUSTS EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CARRY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12-15 KTS...BUT
MAY HAVE TO ADD THE GUSTS BACK IN LATER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD PICK BACK
UP MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
STAYING THROUGH MONDAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBS
UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 250216
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO LOW POPS THERE NOW LOOK GOOD. INSTABILITY
IS MEAGER AT THE MOMENT...BUT AN 850MB JET WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT.

THE JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO THE
HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK GOOD. ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING BASED
ON LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1016 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS WITH IT. SHOULD SEE THIS MOVE INTO
KHUF AROUND 8Z...KLAF AROUND 9Z AND KIND/KBMG AROUND 10Z. WILL KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK WITH
VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT SHOWER
MENTION...BUT DIDN/T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING/PLACEMENT TO
INCLUDE TEMPO OR EXPLICIT THUNDER.

FOR WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING 12-18 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND PASS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE GUSTS EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CARRY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12-15 KTS...BUT
MAY HAVE TO ADD THE GUSTS BACK IN LATER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD PICK BACK
UP MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
STAYING THROUGH MONDAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBS
UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 250201
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1001 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 1001 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ABOUT TO ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA SO LOW POPS THERE NOW LOOK GOOD. INSTABILITY
IS MEAGER AT THE MOMENT...BUT AN 850MB JET WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LATER TONIGHT.

THE JET WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA SO THE
HIGHER POPS THERE LOOK GOOD. ONLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING BASED
ON LATEST RADAR AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE.

ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS WITH IT. SHOULD SEE THIS MOVE INTO
KHUF AROUND 8Z...KLAF AROUND 9Z AND KIND/KBMG AROUND 10Z. WILL KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK WITH
VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT SHOWER
MENTION...BUT DIDN/T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING/PLACEMENT TO
INCLUDE TEMPO OR EXPLICIT THUNDER.

FOR WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING 12-18 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND PASS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE GUSTS EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CARRY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12-15 KTS...BUT
MAY HAVE TO ADD THE GUSTS BACK IN LATER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD PICK BACK
UP MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
STAYING THROUGH MONDAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBS
UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS/50
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIWX 242355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. CONTD
CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER OVERNIGHT AS
DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL SSWRLY JET RAMPS TO 45-50KTS. TIMING OF PSBL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND SMALL CHC SHRA MON AM INVOF KSBN
ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ACRS SRN MO
LIFTING NNEWD INTO NERN IL WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION ATTM. MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACRS NRN IN PRECLUDE NEED FOR MENTION OF
ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 242355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. CONTD
CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER OVERNIGHT AS
DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL SSWRLY JET RAMPS TO 45-50KTS. TIMING OF PSBL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND SMALL CHC SHRA MON AM INVOF KSBN
ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ACRS SRN MO
LIFTING NNEWD INTO NERN IL WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION ATTM. MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACRS NRN IN PRECLUDE NEED FOR MENTION OF
ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 242355
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN TOWARD DAYBREAK. A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROF LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL
REMAIN WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH 925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM
NOSE/CAPPING CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW
LVL JET AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT
OF THE FCST UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER FROM 15Z THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND
MODESTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
LIKELY BE LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE DIURNAL
TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS INTO
LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF
0-1KM MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A
FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER
SURFACE HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE WILL BE STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK ON THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND AS A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT
INTO THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED
CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. CONTD
CONCERN WITH RESPECT TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER OVERNIGHT AS
DECOUPLED LOW LEVEL SSWRLY JET RAMPS TO 45-50KTS. TIMING OF PSBL
HIGH END MVFR CIGS AND SMALL CHC SHRA MON AM INVOF KSBN
ASSOCIATED WITH TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ACRS SRN MO
LIFTING NNEWD INTO NERN IL WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION ATTM. MEAGER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACRS NRN IN PRECLUDE NEED FOR MENTION OF
ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...MURPHY

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIND 242250
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS WITH IT. SHOULD SEE THIS MOVE INTO
KHUF AROUND 8Z...KLAF AROUND 9Z AND KIND/KBMG AROUND 10Z. WILL KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK WITH
VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT SHOWER
MENTION...BUT DIDN/T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING/PLACEMENT TO
INCLUDE TEMPO OR EXPLICIT THUNDER.

FOR WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING 12-18 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND PASS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE GUSTS EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CARRY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12-15 KTS...BUT
MAY HAVE TO ADD THE GUSTS BACK IN LATER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD PICK BACK
UP MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
STAYING THROUGH MONDAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBS
UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 242250
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 250000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SITES WILL START OFF VFR BUT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS WITH IT. SHOULD SEE THIS MOVE INTO
KHUF AROUND 8Z...KLAF AROUND 9Z AND KIND/KBMG AROUND 10Z. WILL KEEP
THESE SHOWERS GOING FOR 4-6 HOURS AND THEN KEEP THE MVFR DECK WITH
VC FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE BRINGING CLOUD DECKS UP TO VFR WITH
DRY CONDITIONS 17-19Z. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO INCLUDED VCTS AT THE SITES ALONG WITH THE EXPLICIT SHOWER
MENTION...BUT DIDN/T FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON TIMING/PLACEMENT TO
INCLUDE TEMPO OR EXPLICIT THUNDER.

FOR WINDS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW GUSTS DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET
BUT SUSTAINED WINDS STAYING 12-18 KTS. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE GIVEN LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND PASS OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE GUSTS EARLY
IN THE TAF PERIOD AND CARRY SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 12-15 KTS...BUT
MAY HAVE TO ADD THE GUSTS BACK IN LATER. WIND GUSTS SHOULD PICK BACK
UP MONDAY MORNING AND EXPECT GUSTS 25-30 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
STAYING THROUGH MONDAY BASED ON BOTH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OBS
UPSTREAM TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 242011
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 242100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ADDED WIND GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS THROUGH 1Z BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
WIND DIRECTION WILL RANGE 170-190 DURING THAT TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 242011
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
410 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 242100Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ADDED WIND GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS THROUGH 1Z BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND
WIND DIRECTION WILL RANGE 170-190 DURING THAT TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241950
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROF
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM NOSE/CAPPING
CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW LVL JET
AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST
UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 15Z
THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND
DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR
SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST.
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS
INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF 0-1KM
MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH
JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE
LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION
IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241950
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROF
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM NOSE/CAPPING
CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW LVL JET
AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST
UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 15Z
THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND
DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR
SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST.
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS
INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF 0-1KM
MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH
JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE
LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION
IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 241950
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROF
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM NOSE/CAPPING
CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW LVL JET
AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST
UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 15Z
THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND
DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR
SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST.
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS
INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF 0-1KM
MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH
JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE
LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION
IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 241950
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR SHORT TERM PERIOD IS PRECIP POTENTIAL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY.

AMPLIFIED EASTERN CONUS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.
SHARP S/W WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF BROAD WESTERN CONUS TROF
LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN
DRY...HOWEVER KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NW...AS HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 00Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT W/ RIDGING HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE TOMORROW AS SIGNS POINT AGAINST MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. MID/UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN
WEST/NW OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. ALTHOUGH
925-700MB MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS...MASSIVE DRY SLOT AT 700MB AND ABOVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION WITH S/W PASSAGE. SLIGHT EML ADVECTION W/ WARM NOSE/CAPPING
CENTERED BETWEEN 700-600MB PER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP
SHOWERS/CONVECTION MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD. ONCE THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...LOW LVL JET
AND UPPER FORCING WILL HAVE EXITED THE REGION...AND MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE RATHER DRY. FOR WX TYPE...KEPT THUNDER OUT OF THE FCST
UNTIL AFTER 15Z...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM 15Z
THROUGH 18Z. POPS RAMP DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
18Z WITH DRY SLOT ROTATING THROUGH. KEPT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PIECEMEAL EJECTION OF LARGE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY GIVEN MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LATE IN
THE DAY ON TUESDAY WHEN MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST A MORE
FORMIDABLE SHORTWAVE VORT WAX WILL LIFT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LLJ
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS WAVE AND
DECENT MIDLEVEL CVA/HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE FOCUS FOR
SCT-NUM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWEST.
FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL ALSO ALLOW THIS WAVE TO CAPITALIZE ON
SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY. GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN 12Z MODEL SUITE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED AFTERNOON POPS
INTO LIKELY CATEGORY. SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS LOW. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL BE IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE BUT PALTRY MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6 C/KM OR LESS ONLY GENERATE AROUND 500 J/KG OF 0-1KM
MLCAPE DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE BETTER SURFACE
HEATING AND/OR MOISTURE POOLING BUT CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER APPEAR LOW AT THIS POINT.

CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING LEADS TO A MORE SUSTAINED PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE AND
NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. DECENT PUSH OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT MOST OF THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE
STRIPPED AWAY BY THIS POINT. HELD WITH JUST HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. MARGINAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANOTHER LOW...BUT NOT
ZERO...CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND AS A
TROUGH PASSING THROUGH ONTARIO SENDS A WEAK FRONT INTO THE REGION.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS FRONT TO STALL SOMEWHERE OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BUT DETAILS HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD WITH
JUST BLANKET CHANCE POPS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE
LOWER ONCE THIS BOUNDARY PASSES BUT EXACT TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION
IS UNCERTAIN AND STAYED CLOSE TO INITIALIZED CONSENSUS BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 241821
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
221 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 241821
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
221 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK
AS OCCASIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN ZONES CLOSEST TO UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. POTENTIAL LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AND
ESPECIALLY FARTHER WEST...SO WILL HOLD ONTO SOME SMALL CHANCES POPS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS ON MONDAY AS A RATHER SHARP UPPER WAVE...CURRENTLY
OVER TEXAS...EJECTS NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS
INDICATE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FEATURE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME DECENT LIFT. APPEARS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES AND FARTHER WEST...SO WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS IN
THOSE AREAS WITH POPS TAPERING OFF FARTHER EAST.

PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE. WILL NUDGE THE GUIDANCE DOWN A COUPLE
OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPPER WAVE...AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL JET...THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF PASSING THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. AS WAVE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST BY
AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MAY TEND TO DIMINISH AT THAT
TIME.

PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS SUGGEST PERIODIC WAVES WILL EJECT ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
INDIVIDUAL WAVES...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THE MODELS SEEM TO BE
KEYING IN ON TUESDAY FOR THE BEST CHANCES. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM.

BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES...DON/T HAVE ANY MAJOR ISSUES
WITH THE GFS MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IN THE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JAS
NEAR TERM...JAS
SHORT TERM...JAS
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES CREST OF UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DON/T REALLY SEE ANYTHING EITHER IN THE MODEL
DATA OR ON SATELLITE TO SUGGEST MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
TODAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING OUT IN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANYTHING THAT MAY SNEAK INTO THAT AREA LATER.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE
TOO COOL. WILL RAISE THE HIGH TODAY A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES CREST OF UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DON/T REALLY SEE ANYTHING EITHER IN THE MODEL
DATA OR ON SATELLITE TO SUGGEST MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
TODAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING OUT IN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANYTHING THAT MAY SNEAK INTO THAT AREA LATER.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE
TOO COOL. WILL RAISE THE HIGH TODAY A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
200 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES CREST OF UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DON/T REALLY SEE ANYTHING EITHER IN THE MODEL
DATA OR ON SATELLITE TO SUGGEST MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
TODAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING OUT IN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANYTHING THAT MAY SNEAK INTO THAT AREA LATER.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE
TOO COOL. WILL RAISE THE HIGH TODAY A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TWO WEATHER PATTERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...A WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGEST HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...ALONG WITH SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT. MINIMAL SUPPORT APPEARS AVAILABLE ALOFT.
HOWEVER SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON POPS GIVEN THE WARM AIR
MASS. ALTHOUGH A CONVECTIVE DIURNAL TSRA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL USE LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME.

HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A SURFACE FRONT SAGGING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY PROVIDING AN IDEAL SET UP FOR LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
WITH AND OVERRUNNING TYPE SET-UP IN THE LOWER LEVEL. HAVE TRENDED
TOWARD HIGHER POP AT THAT TIME...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....PUMA
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIWX 241722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 241722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 241722
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PD. MAIN CONCERN FOR TAF
PD IS INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM 06Z-12Z. ADDED WIND SHEAR
MENTION IN TAF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SHRA
NEAR 00Z AT KSBN AND AT BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 12Z...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR TAF MENTION AT THIS TIME AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH NEXT FCST ISSUANCE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 241643
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES CREST OF UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DON/T REALLY SEE ANYTHING EITHER IN THE MODEL
DATA OR ON SATELLITE TO SUGGEST MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
TODAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING OUT IN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANYTHING THAT MAY SNEAK INTO THAT AREA LATER.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE
TOO COOL. WILL RAISE THE HIGH TODAY A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241643
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES CREST OF UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DON/T REALLY SEE ANYTHING EITHER IN THE MODEL
DATA OR ON SATELLITE TO SUGGEST MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
TODAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING OUT IN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANYTHING THAT MAY SNEAK INTO THAT AREA LATER.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE
TOO COOL. WILL RAISE THE HIGH TODAY A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 241643
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1243 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES CREST OF UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DON/T REALLY SEE ANYTHING EITHER IN THE MODEL
DATA OR ON SATELLITE TO SUGGEST MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
TODAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING OUT IN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANYTHING THAT MAY SNEAK INTO THAT AREA LATER.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE
TOO COOL. WILL RAISE THE HIGH TODAY A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241800Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 1231 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 12-15 HOURS.
DETERIORATION TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 12Z MONDAY.

THE TAFS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES NE TOWARD THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ NEAR 45 KNTS AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO INDIANA OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHRA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP SATURATION NEAR 12Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE.

BY 18Z MONDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DRY OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS AS FORCING AND DYNAMICS DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY ALONG
WITH CCL/S NEAR 2500FT...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 241436
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES EXPECTED TO EXIT THE LOCAL
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OTHERWISE...THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES CREST OF UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DON/T REALLY SEE ANYTHING EITHER IN THE MODEL
DATA OR ON SATELLITE TO SUGGEST MUCH OF A PRECIPITATION THREAT
TODAY...WITH THE BETTER FORCING STAYING OUT IN ILLINOIS. WILL KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE POP OVER THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO
COVER ANYTHING THAT MAY SNEAK INTO THAT AREA LATER.

THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SUGGEST THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY MAY BE
TOO COOL. WILL RAISE THE HIGH TODAY A CATEGORY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT-BKN CU NEAR 5000FT
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU
AROUND 040 THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVER THE EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS AT THE END OF THE MOST OF THE
SITE/S TAF PERIODS. FOR NOW INCLUDING SHOWERS WITHOUT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER YET AND NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD/JAS
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 241432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT-BKN CU NEAR 5000FT
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU
AROUND 040 THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVER THE EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS AT THE END OF THE MOST OF THE
SITE/S TAF PERIODS. FOR NOW INCLUDING SHOWERS WITHOUT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER YET AND NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT-BKN CU NEAR 5000FT
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU
AROUND 040 THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVER THE EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS AT THE END OF THE MOST OF THE
SITE/S TAF PERIODS. FOR NOW INCLUDING SHOWERS WITHOUT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER YET AND NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT-BKN CU NEAR 5000FT
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU
AROUND 040 THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVER THE EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS AT THE END OF THE MOST OF THE
SITE/S TAF PERIODS. FOR NOW INCLUDING SHOWERS WITHOUT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER YET AND NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241432
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1032 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241500Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. WILL EXPECTED SOME SCT-BKN CU NEAR 5000FT
THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU
AROUND 040 THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVER THE EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS AT THE END OF THE MOST OF THE
SITE/S TAF PERIODS. FOR NOW INCLUDING SHOWERS WITHOUT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER YET AND NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF/JP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
641 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU
AROUND 040 THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVER THE EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS AT THE END OF THE MOST OF THE
SITE/S TAF PERIODS. FOR NOW INCLUDING SHOWERS WITHOUT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER YET AND NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 241041
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
641 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING
THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU
AROUND 040 THAT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AND OVER THE EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL
TOWARD MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS AT THE END OF THE MOST OF THE
SITE/S TAF PERIODS. FOR NOW INCLUDING SHOWERS WITHOUT THE MENTION
OF THUNDER YET AND NO REDUCTION IN FLIGHT CATEGORY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 240828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 240828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240828
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
428 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/WISCONSIN STATES.
300 AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NO FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIWX 240823
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
423 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN LATER THIS WEEK AS HUMIDITY INCREASES AND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS AROUND 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 420
AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS PD AS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT HOLDS FIRM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 240823
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
423 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY AND CONDITIONS DRY
AND WARM TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AND
THEN LATER THIS WEEK AS HUMIDITY INCREASES AND AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS THROUGH FRIDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS AROUND 65.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

RATHER SIG HGT RISES ALOFT XPCD THIS PD DOWNSTREAM OF EJECTING
INTENSE SRN STREAM SW. GIVEN 00Z CONSENSUS PLACEMENT OF MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS AND WWD TRENDING EJECTING SRN STREAM TROUGH...ADMITTED
LACK OF FORCING LOCALLY AND POOR MSTR ADVTN SUGGESTS POPS CAN BE
SCRAPPED FOR THE MOST PART AGAIN THROUGH THE PD IN FVR OF A
PERSISTENCE DRY FCST. HWVR WILL RETAIN MINIMIZED POP MENTION FAR
NW FOR LT THIS AFTN/ERLY EVENING IN REF TO LL THETA-E BURST THAT
CLIPS NW IN/SRN LK MI ALG NOSE OF LLJ.

OTRWS LL THERMAL RIDGE BLDS FURTHER...ON THE ORDER OF 2C AT H85
WHICH EVEN W/AN INCREASE IN MID LVL CLDS TDA SHLD EQUATE TO HIGH
TEMPS SIMILAR TO YDA...W/LOW 80S XPCD IN MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST EARLY THIS WEEK AND WILL
EJECT AN UPPER LEVEL TROF TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
MONDAY. HAVE LIMITED THE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO MONDAY MORNING
GIVEN THE LATEST EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE ALSO ADDED
MORE DETAIL LATER THIS WEEK AS SUBSEQUENT UPPER TROFS MOVE TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVE STABLE AND LIMIT
CONVECTION. HAVE REMOVED SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. FOR LATE THIS WEEK...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF CANADA AND BECOME STATIONARY OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ECMWF FAVORS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION WHEREAS THE GFS IS FARTHER
SOUTH. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT AND THE SURFACE PRESSURES
NORTH OF THE FRONT...FAVOR AT LEAST A BLEND OF THE EC AND
GFS...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE FRONT OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
NEXT WEEKEND...AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR NOW...KEPT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY VERY LATE IN THIS PERIOD.
KEPT HIGH MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S WITH LOWS NEAR 65 MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 420
AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDS WILL CONT THIS PD AS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT HOLDS FIRM.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 240800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINIOS/WISCONSIN. 300
AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 240800
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE
TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF THE SHORT AND
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIODS...FURTHER ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW ON
TUESDAY AND SHORT WAVES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY.

PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT WILL INHIBIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. IT WON/T
BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TIME CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
DRY AIR THROUGH SUN 22Z...BUT THE ENTIRE AIR COLUMN BECOMES MORE
SATURATED AROUND MON 00Z. IN SUMMARY...WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE
DAY AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES AND DIURNAL HEATING INTENSIFIES.

TEMPS...TRENDED AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
SINCE THERE WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN ORIGINAL MODEL RUNS WERE
HINTING AT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE IOWA/ILLINIOS/WISCONSIN. 300
AND 850 MB JETS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT WITH THAT UPPER LOW ON MONDAY...SO LIKELY
POPS SEEM REASONABLE FROM MON 12-18Z. DYNAMICS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THOUGH AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES FARTHER
NORTHEAST AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMMENCES...SO ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. AS A RESULT...WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS
AFTER MON 18Z.

AFTER LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY
NIGHT...CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER LOW FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
ONE ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ON
TUESDAY...MUCH LIKE MONDAY/S WEATHER PATTERN.

STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SINCE MODELS
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE WARM AND HUMID PATTERN. THIS WILL PUT
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO HANDLE THE ALMOST DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VERY WELL. DID NOT NEED TO DEVIATE FAR
FROM THIS GUIDANCE.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN
A MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ALMOST DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE
TO BROAD BRUSH POPS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ANYWHERE FROM LOW
CHANCE TO LIKELY.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....SMF
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 240510
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240510
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240510
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240510
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240510
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 240510
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROAD BRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 108 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE
DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SCT-BKN CU AROUND 040 THAT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES FROM THE WEST. SOME RAIN SHOWERS LOOK
POSSIBLE AT THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND OVER THE
EASTERN SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT
PROBABILITIES DON/T INCREASE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE UNTIL AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. BY MID MORNING THEY
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND RANGE FROM 170-190 DURING THE DAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT BY MID MORNING AS WELL...WITH BROKEN
MORE LIKELY IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND THE BROKEN DECK SPREADING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EASTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY AT
ANY ONE POINT IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 240221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. BY MID MORNING THEY
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND RANGE FROM 170-190 DURING THE DAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT BY MID MORNING AS WELL...WITH BROKEN
MORE LIKELY IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND THE BROKEN DECK SPREADING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EASTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY AT
ANY ONE POINT IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 240221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. BY MID MORNING THEY
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND RANGE FROM 170-190 DURING THE DAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT BY MID MORNING AS WELL...WITH BROKEN
MORE LIKELY IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND THE BROKEN DECK SPREADING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EASTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY AT
ANY ONE POINT IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 240221
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1021 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TWEAKED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. BY MID MORNING THEY
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND RANGE FROM 170-190 DURING THE DAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT BY MID MORNING AS WELL...WITH BROKEN
MORE LIKELY IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND THE BROKEN DECK SPREADING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EASTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY AT
ANY ONE POINT IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 240110
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. BY MID MORNING THEY
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND RANGE FROM 170-190 DURING THE DAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT BY MID MORNING AS WELL...WITH BROKEN
MORE LIKELY IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND THE BROKEN DECK SPREADING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EASTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY AT
ANY ONE POINT IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 240110
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS AND NEAR TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF INDIANA WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON MONDAY.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT MOST TIMES THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 910 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT TONIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND THE NORTHEAST...PROVIDING A
WARM AND MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR TO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
PRODUCING CONVECTION. RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME OF HIGHS AND MID CLOUD ADVECTING
TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THIS TIME IS TEMPS.

BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE RIDGING
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS BOTH INDICATE SOME SATURATION ALOFT AS CLOUDS
FROM THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM DRIFTS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE...CONTINUING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN
MORE CLOUDS. THUS WILL TREND LOWS TONIGHT WARMER THAN MAVMOS AT
MOST SPOTS...ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POPS.

GFS/NAM SUGGEST BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME SATURATION ALOFT...BUT
LOWER LEVELS REMAIN DRY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE
LOWER 80S. 305 GFS ISENTROPIC SURFACE SHOWS BROAD LIFT WITH
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE
REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ON SUNDAY...RAIN SHOULD HOLD
OFF...HOWEVER THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEPART BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE REACHED AT THAT
POINT...LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS FOR TEMPS WILL TREND HIGHS AT MAVMOS GIVEN TE
EXPECTED CLOUDS AND BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING SIMULTANEOUSLY.

GFS AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
CENTRAL INDIANA PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL DEEP SATURATION TOWARD 12Z MONDAY AS
ISENTROPIC SURFACES SHOW QUITE A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES WERE OVER 7 G/KG. THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHER
THAN THE GFS. GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EXPECTED
RAIN WILL TREND SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS.

AFTER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE DEPARTS ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THAT SHORT WAVE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME
DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS THAT WILL GIVE US A BETTER
TREND TOWARD A DRY AFTERNOON. WILL TREND POPS LOWER ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE FORCING DEPARTS. WILL
USE A BLEND ON TEMPS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALOFT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIGS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GFS AND NAM SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ONCE AGAIN DEPARTING BY LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE WARM...AND HUMID AIR MASS LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. FURTHER
SUPPORT IS SEEN IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH IMPLY DEEP
SATURATION...SOME CAPE AND ATTAINABLE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THUS WILL TREND LOWS WARMER THAN MAVMOS AND HIGHS COOLER
ALONG WITH POPS HIGHER THAN MAVMOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN A MEAN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AND A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES.

ENSEMBLES SUGGEST DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC WAVES TO
EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BROADBRUSH POPS
OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 240000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 705 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP TO 5 KTS OR LESS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. BY MID MORNING THEY
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS AND RANGE FROM 170-190 DURING THE DAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TIME
HEIGHTS AND FORECAST SOUNDING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT BY MID MORNING AS WELL...WITH BROKEN
MORE LIKELY IN THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND THE BROKEN DECK SPREADING
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SITES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EASTERN SITES DURING THE EVENING...BUT PROBABILITY AT
ANY ONE POINT IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MK
NEAR TERM...PUMA/MK
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM....JAS
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







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