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000
FXUS63 KIWX 260446
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WARMER YET ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
PERIOD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WEATHER ESSENTIALLY NIL IN THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR ANOTHER NICE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SIDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER BUT STILL SHOULD SEE A
NICE RECOVERY INTO THE LOW 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATED A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WAS DIGGING SOUTH...
AND MAY SLOW DOWN THE EAST EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WAS PLENTY OF VERY COLD AIR IN THE NORTHERN
CANADIAN INTERIOR WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE TAPPED AFTER THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL
TROF LATE THIS COMING WEEK...WITH THE EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR
UNDULATING OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEW/12Z GFS/MEX WAS THE
COLDEST YET OF ANY OF THE ECMWF OR GFS RUNS WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-12C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO AN EARLIER COLD
SOLUTION. HESITATED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF WHAT
APPEARS SHOULD BE A SINGLE SNOW BAND. DELTA T VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 20C LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE BETWEEN 20C AND 23C THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS LOWER FRIDAY BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...A VERY CHILLY NEXT
SATURDAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 260446
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1246 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TODAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. WARMER YET ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
PERIOD OF RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WEATHER ESSENTIALLY NIL IN THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR ANOTHER NICE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SIDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER BUT STILL SHOULD SEE A
NICE RECOVERY INTO THE LOW 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATED A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WAS DIGGING SOUTH...
AND MAY SLOW DOWN THE EAST EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WAS PLENTY OF VERY COLD AIR IN THE NORTHERN
CANADIAN INTERIOR WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE TAPPED AFTER THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL
TROF LATE THIS COMING WEEK...WITH THE EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR
UNDULATING OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEW/12Z GFS/MEX WAS THE
COLDEST YET OF ANY OF THE ECMWF OR GFS RUNS WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-12C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO AN EARLIER COLD
SOLUTION. HESITATED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF WHAT
APPEARS SHOULD BE A SINGLE SNOW BAND. DELTA T VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 20C LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE BETWEEN 20C AND 23C THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS LOWER FRIDAY BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...A VERY CHILLY NEXT
SATURDAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

A VERY DRY/SUBSIDENT POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






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000
FXUS63 KIND 260352
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1150 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST USA WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP
LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED DID NOT STRAY FROM THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE ELSEWHERE AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY ON.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM EXITS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON HALLOWEEN
AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260600Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY ADVECTION AND A LIGHT WIND SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WIND 7 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
261800Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 260223
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1022 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST USA WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP
LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED DID NOT STRAY FROM THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE ELSEWHERE AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY ON.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM EXITS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON HALLOWEEN
AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

DRY ADVECTION AND A LIGHT WIND SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WIND 280-320 DEGREES AT 7 KTS
OR LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 252325
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
725 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WEATHER ESSENTIALLY NIL IN THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR ANOTHER NICE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SIDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER BUT STILL SHOULD SEE A
NICE RECOVERY INTO THE LOW 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATED A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WAS DIGGING SOUTH...
AND MAY SLOW DOWN THE EAST EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WAS PLENTY OF VERY COLD AIR IN THE NORTHERN
CANADIAN INTERIOR WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE TAPPED AFTER THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL
TROF LATE THIS COMING WEEK...WITH THE EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR
UNDULATING OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEW/12Z GFS/MEX WAS THE
COLDEST YET OF ANY OF THE ECMWF OR GFS RUNS WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-12C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO AN EARLIER COLD
SOLUTION. HESITATED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF WHAT
APPEARS SHOULD BE A SINGLE SNOW BAND. DELTA T VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 20C LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE BETWEEN 20C AND 23C THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS LOWER FRIDAY BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...A VERY CHILLY NEXT
SATURDAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

IDEAL AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW AS A
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY BR AT KFWA AROUND SUNRISE BUT VERY DRY
AIRMASS AND NONZERO GRADIENT WIND SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT VIS REDUCTION IS LOW. WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT WNW WIND.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 252239
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
638 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST USA WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP
LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED DID NOT STRAY FROM THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE ELSEWHERE AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY ON.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM EXITS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON HALLOWEEN
AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 260000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 638 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DRY ADVECTION AND A LIGHT WIND SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER...SURFACE WIND 280-320 DEGREES AT 7 KTS
OR LESS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIND 252024
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
422 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST USA WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP
LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED DID NOT STRAY FROM THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE ELSEWHERE AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY ON.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM EXITS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON HALLOWEEN
AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 252100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE ANY DIURNAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL TAKE OUT THE CLOUD LAYER BELOW 050
ON THE UPDATE. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50/JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIWX 251952
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
352 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WEATHER ESSENTIALLY NIL IN THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND TRAILING WEAK
COLD FRONT. SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES IN FOR ANOTHER NICE
DAY ON SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SIDED TOWARD COOLER GUIDANCE.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE JUST A TAD COOLER BUT STILL SHOULD SEE A
NICE RECOVERY INTO THE LOW 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF WAS STILL OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR INDICATED A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WAS DIGGING SOUTH...
AND MAY SLOW DOWN THE EAST EJECTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WAS PLENTY OF VERY COLD AIR IN THE NORTHERN
CANADIAN INTERIOR WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE TAPPED AFTER THIS UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SECOND SURGE OF COLD AIR SHOULD REACH THE AREA FRIDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF AND BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH WITH THE POSITION OF THE THERMAL
TROF LATE THIS COMING WEEK...WITH THE EDGE OF THE COLDEST AIR
UNDULATING OVER THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. THE NEW/12Z GFS/MEX WAS THE
COLDEST YET OF ANY OF THE ECMWF OR GFS RUNS WITH 850 MB TEMPS NEAR
-12C OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF HAS RETURNED TO AN EARLIER COLD
SOLUTION. HESITATED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF WHAT
APPEARS SHOULD BE A SINGLE SNOW BAND. DELTA T VALUES SHOULD RISE TO
AROUND 20C LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE BETWEEN 20C AND 23C THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. CONTINUED TO TREND HIGHS LOWER FRIDAY BASED ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...A VERY CHILLY NEXT
SATURDAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

UBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK COLD
FRONT ALLOWING CLOUDS TO ERODE AND SKIES ARE BECOMING CLEAR.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DRIER AIR AND SLIGHT GRADIENT WIND WILL
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT AT TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE IF FULL DECOUPLING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE KFWA AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 251823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST USA WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP
LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED DID NOT STRAY FROM THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE ELSEWHERE AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY ON.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM EXITS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON HALLOWEEN
AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 251823
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AT
THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. 00Z ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO
THE SOUTHEAST USA WHILE 12Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP
LOWEST HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA.

WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED DID NOT STRAY FROM THE SUPERBLEND
INITIALIZATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE ELSEWHERE AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR EARLY ON.

RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AS A SYSTEM EXITS. DRY
AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE RULE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND BRING CHANCES FOR
RAIN TO THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ON HALLOWEEN
AND SATURDAY ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251758
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
158 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH THE HIGH. HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH
DEPARTS TO THE EAST...WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...ALLOWING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...BRINGING CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS BACK TO INDIANA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY...COOL FALL WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WAS FOUND THE
DAKOTAS...BUILDING SOUTHEAST. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA WERE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA...HOWEVER
THAT WAS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS COOLER NORTHWEST WINDS OVER
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WERE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE MILD MID 50S...HOWEVER THIS TOO
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY. SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WSR88D WAS QUIET.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPS.

NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW A DRY COLUMN. THUS WILL AIM FOR
CLEAR SKIES. NAM SUGGESTS WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT AND BY 12Z BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE SURFACE HIGH
SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND RELAXING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THUS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL TREND LOWS AT OR BELOW A BLEND OF MAVMOS AND METMOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. GFS
AND THE NAM AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT RIDGING ALOFT IN COMBINATION
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS
SHOW A DRY COLUMN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE UNREACHABLE. THUS MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHTS LOOK IN STORE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION ENDS ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER 850MB TEMPS
REMAIN AROUND 10-11C. STILL WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION AND PLENTY OF
SUN WILL TREND HIGHS AT OR ABOVE A MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND FOR SUNDAY
HIGHS. 850MB SURFACE SHOWS WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SW FLOW
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS WILL TREND LOWS AND HIGHS DURING THAT PERIOD BOTH WARMER THAN
THE MAVMOS/METMOS BLEND.

GFS AND NAM DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT. MANY GOOD FEATURES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
AS THIS FRONT ARRIVES...INCLUDING AMPLE MOISTURE...AND GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TIMING REMAINS A BIT OF
A CONCERN AS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEAR 12Z...GIVE OR TAKE 3HRS.
THUS WILL TREND POPS HIGHS ON BOTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING THINGS OFF ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RAPID INFILTRATION OF DRY AIR INTO THE
COLUMN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HERE WILL TREND TUESDAY HIGH TEMPS
COOLER THAN MEXMOS GIVEN THE EXPECTED CLOUDS...RAIN AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PUMA
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...PUMA
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...50

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
117 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 9-7H LAYER THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS WEAKENING
FRONT...TIED TO A ROUND OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND 150 KT PLUS
UPPER JET TRACKING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL SWING SE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTHING MORE THAN LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A QUICK
IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING FROM NW TO SE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR OVERSPREADS...WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO MILD AFTN
HIGHS.

WX NIL TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON THE SUBSIDENT SW PERIPHERY OF A CARVED OUT SE CANADA
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA (UPPER 30S-LOW 40S) WITH COLDER PUSH OF AIR
FOCUSED INTO NORTHEASTERN ZONES (IF GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY MID 30S)...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FULL DECOUPLING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

POTENT SW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SWING INLAND TDA AND OVERTOP WRN
RIDGE AS IT AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES BY TUE. TRAILING WX
INDUCING CDFNTL BNDRY WILL RACE EWD WITHIN CONTD PROGRESSIVE FLW
PATTN ALOFT. GIVEN MULTIDAY TRENDS OF A FASTER EWD PROGRESSING SYS
AND GOOD 00Z BASED MED RANGE AGREEMENT MADE SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON-TUE. HWVR OF NOTE W/FASTER EWD PROGRESSION
IS A GENERALLY MORE SUBDUED/DELAYED INFUSION OF WRN GOMEX BASED MSTR
RTN WHICH SHLD LIMIT QPFS TO AOB ONE HALF INCH FOR EVENT TOTALS.

OTRWS SERIES OF SFC RIDGES TO BLD SEWD OUT OF CANADA IN WAKE OF THIS
SYS PARTICULARLY LT PD IN CONCERT W/SECONDARY NRN STREAM SW DIGGING
SEWD SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EC/GFS SOLUTIONS
WORRYING BUT AS YET WIDELY DISPARATE. REGARDLESS PRONOUNCED BLOW OF
CAA LIKELY WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK COLD
FRONT ALLOWING CLOUDS TO ERODE AND SKIES ARE BECOMING CLEAR.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DRIER AIR AND SLIGHT GRADIENT WIND WILL
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT AT TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE IF FULL DECOUPLING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE KFWA AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251717
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
117 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S
TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 9-7H LAYER THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS WEAKENING
FRONT...TIED TO A ROUND OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND 150 KT PLUS
UPPER JET TRACKING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL SWING SE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTHING MORE THAN LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A QUICK
IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING FROM NW TO SE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR OVERSPREADS...WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO MILD AFTN
HIGHS.

WX NIL TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON THE SUBSIDENT SW PERIPHERY OF A CARVED OUT SE CANADA
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA (UPPER 30S-LOW 40S) WITH COLDER PUSH OF AIR
FOCUSED INTO NORTHEASTERN ZONES (IF GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY MID 30S)...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FULL DECOUPLING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

POTENT SW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SWING INLAND TDA AND OVERTOP WRN
RIDGE AS IT AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES BY TUE. TRAILING WX
INDUCING CDFNTL BNDRY WILL RACE EWD WITHIN CONTD PROGRESSIVE FLW
PATTN ALOFT. GIVEN MULTIDAY TRENDS OF A FASTER EWD PROGRESSING SYS
AND GOOD 00Z BASED MED RANGE AGREEMENT MADE SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON-TUE. HWVR OF NOTE W/FASTER EWD PROGRESSION
IS A GENERALLY MORE SUBDUED/DELAYED INFUSION OF WRN GOMEX BASED MSTR
RTN WHICH SHLD LIMIT QPFS TO AOB ONE HALF INCH FOR EVENT TOTALS.

OTRWS SERIES OF SFC RIDGES TO BLD SEWD OUT OF CANADA IN WAKE OF THIS
SYS PARTICULARLY LT PD IN CONCERT W/SECONDARY NRN STREAM SW DIGGING
SEWD SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EC/GFS SOLUTIONS
WORRYING BUT AS YET WIDELY DISPARATE. REGARDLESS PRONOUNCED BLOW OF
CAA LIKELY WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR BEHIND DEPARTING SHORT WAVE AND WEAK COLD
FRONT ALLOWING CLOUDS TO ERODE AND SKIES ARE BECOMING CLEAR.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DRIER AIR AND SLIGHT GRADIENT WIND WILL
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT AT TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG
POSSIBLE IF FULL DECOUPLING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE KFWA AREA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD/LASHLEY
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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000
FXUS63 KIND 251654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN INDIANA POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. SATELLITE SHOWED A
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PATCHY FOG WAS
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND MIXING RESUMES THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN OUR
850MB...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...50

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251654
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN INDIANA POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. SATELLITE SHOWED A
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PATCHY FOG WAS
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND MIXING RESUMES THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN OUR
850MB...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

COULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS POP UP AS SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. THESE WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN TONIGHT BEHIND A FRONT AND SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG FORMATION. WINDS UP TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AND REMAIN BELOW 10KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...50

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251433
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN INDIANA POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. SATELLITE SHOWED A
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PATCHY FOG WAS
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND MIXING RESUMES THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN OUR
850MB...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

AREA OF MVFR CLOUDS HAS MOVED SOUTH OF KIND...BUT AN AREA OF STRATUS
ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA IS TRYING TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA. THIS LOOK TO IMPACT KLAF...BUT MUCH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN IF IT OR ITS REMNANTS WILL REACH KIND.

IF IT DOES REACH KIND...IT WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 18Z. FOR NOW
WILL JUST KEEP A LOWER SCATTERED LAYER AT KIND.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/50

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 251427
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1027 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD
COVER LINGERING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 9-7H LAYER THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS WEAKENING
FRONT...TIED TO A ROUND OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND 150 KT PLUS
UPPER JET TRACKING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL SWING SE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTHING MORE THAN LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A QUICK
IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING FROM NW TO SE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR OVERSPREADS...WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO MILD AFTN
HIGHS.

WX NIL TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON THE SUBSIDENT SW PERIPHERY OF A CARVED OUT SE CANADA
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA (UPPER 30S-LOW 40S) WITH COLDER PUSH OF AIR
FOCUSED INTO NORTHEASTERN ZONES (IF GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY MID 30S)...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FULL DECOUPLING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

POTENT SW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SWING INLAND TDA AND OVERTOP WRN
RIDGE AS IT AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES BY TUE. TRAILING WX
INDUCING CDFNTL BNDRY WILL RACE EWD WITHIN CONTD PROGRESSIVE FLW
PATTN ALOFT. GIVEN MULTIDAY TRENDS OF A FASTER EWD PROGRESSING SYS
AND GOOD 00Z BASED MED RANGE AGREEMENT MADE SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON-TUE. HWVR OF NOTE W/FASTER EWD PROGRESSION
IS A GENERALLY MORE SUBDUED/DELAYED INFUSION OF WRN GOMEX BASED MSTR
RTN WHICH SHLD LIMIT QPFS TO AOB ONE HALF INCH FOR EVENT TOTALS.

OTRWS SERIES OF SFC RIDGES TO BLD SEWD OUT OF CANADA IN WAKE OF THIS
SYS PARTICULARLY LT PD IN CONCERT W/SECONDARY NRN STREAM SW DIGGING
SEWD SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EC/GFS SOLUTIONS
WORRYING BUT AS YET WIDELY DISPARATE. REGARDLESS PRONOUNCED BLOW OF
CAA LIKELY WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DECENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH KSBN SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK AND KFWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. COOLING/SATURATION
IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN WHERE
BETTER PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FUEL ALT TO IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY BR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS/BR.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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000
FXUS63 KIND 251338
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
938 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON/...

ISSUED AT 927 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS OVER
WESTERN INDIANA POISED TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WAS FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. SATELLITE SHOWED A
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. PATCHY FOG WAS
FOUND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH OVER ILLINOIS.

AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE AND MIXING RESUMES THIS
AFTERNOON...SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY. GIVEN OUR
850MB...ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...PUMA
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE LIKELY
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AND THUS WILL CARRY NO MENTION
OF THEM IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES
MENTION ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM SUCH WEAK ECHOES IS
VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW DROPS SHOULD FALL HERE AND THERE.

CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONSENSUS BLEND
IS REASONABLE ON MAX TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF 70 TO
75 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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000
FXUS63 KIND 251030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE LIKELY
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AND THUS WILL CARRY NO MENTION
OF THEM IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES
MENTION ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM SUCH WEAK ECHOES IS
VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW DROPS SHOULD FALL HERE AND THERE.

CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONSENSUS BLEND
IS REASONABLE ON MAX TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF 70 TO
75 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 251200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ASIDE FROM SOME BRIEF MFVR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
SHOULD REACH DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z.
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250940
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND FORECAST TO REACH THE
60S...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY
MILD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 9-7H LAYER THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS WEAKENING
FRONT...TIED TO A ROUND OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND 150 KT PLUS
UPPER JET TRACKING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL SWING SE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTHING MORE THAN LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A QUICK
IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING FROM NW TO SE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR OVERSPREADS...WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO MILD AFTN
HIGHS.

WX NIL TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON THE SUBSIDENT SW PERIPHERY OF A CARVED OUT SE CANADA
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA (UPPER 30S-LOW 40S) WITH COLDER PUSH OF AIR
FOCUSED INTO NORTHEASTERN ZONES (IF GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY MID 30S)...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FULL DECOUPLING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

POTENT SW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SWING INLAND TDA AND OVERTOP WRN
RIDGE AS IT AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES BY TUE. TRAILING WX
INDUCING CDFNTL BNDRY WILL RACE EWD WITHIN CONTD PROGRESSIVE FLW
PATTN ALOFT. GIVEN MULTIDAY TRENDS OF A FASTER EWD PROGRESSING SYS
AND GOOD 00Z BASED MED RANGE AGREEMENT MADE SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON-TUE. HWVR OF NOTE W/FASTER EWD PROGRESSION
IS A GENERALLY MORE SUBDUED/DELAYED INFUSION OF WRN GOMEX BASED MSTR
RTN WHICH SHLD LIMIT QPFS TO AOB ONE HALF INCH FOR EVENT TOTALS.

OTRWS SERIES OF SFC RIDGES TO BLD SEWD OUT OF CANADA IN WAKE OF THIS
SYS PARTICULARLY LT PD IN CONCERT W/SECONDARY NRN STREAM SW DIGGING
SEWD SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EC/GFS SOLUTIONS
WORRYING BUT AS YET WIDELY DISPARATE. REGARDLESS PRONOUNCED BLOW OF
CAA LIKELY WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DECENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH KSBN SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK AND KFWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. COOLING/SATURATION
IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN WHERE
BETTER PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FUEL ALT TO IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY BR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT ANY RESIDUAL CLOUDS/BR.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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000
FXUS63 KIND 250827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE LIKELY
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AND THUS WILL CARRY NO MENTION
OF THEM IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES
MENTION ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM SUCH WEAK ECHOES IS
VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW DROPS SHOULD FALL HERE AND THERE.

CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONSENSUS BLEND
IS REASONABLE ON MAX TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF 70 TO
75 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

0825Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND
BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/KOCH

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250750
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
TODAY...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT BEYOND SOME MORNING CLOUDINESS
AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES NEXT WEEK...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS...AND COOLER CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

VERY LIGHT ECHOES NOTED ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE ARE LIKELY
TO CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...AND THUS WILL CARRY NO MENTION
OF THEM IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE SPRINKLES
MENTION ALREADY IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FROM SUCH WEAK ECHOES IS
VERY UNLIKELY BUT A FEW DROPS SHOULD FALL HERE AND THERE.

CLOUD COVER FROM THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SUGGEST CONSENSUS BLEND
IS REASONABLE ON MAX TEMPS...WHICH RESULTS IN A FORECAST OF 70 TO
75 ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SHORT
TERM...THUS A DRY FORECAST WILL SUFFICE AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA AND WILL HAVE TO CARRY AT
LEAST SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGEST MOS BLEND OR JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IS BETTER ON MAX TEMPS WHILE AN OVERALL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS BETTER ON MINS. MAY SEE THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS. COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WITH VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WAS INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES START
OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION
GENERALLY WORKED WELL. ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND
BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...KOCH

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250739
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
339 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND FORECAST TO REACH THE
60S...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY
MILD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

ISOLATED SPRINKLES IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 9-7H LAYER THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT ESE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS WEAKENING
FRONT...TIED TO A ROUND OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND 150 KT PLUS
UPPER JET TRACKING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...WILL SWING SE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NOTHING MORE THAN LOW CLOUDS EXPECTED
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. A QUICK
IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING FROM NW TO SE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTN AS
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR OVERSPREADS...WITH NO CHANGES MADE TO MILD AFTN
HIGHS.

WX NIL TONIGHT AS A SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON THE SUBSIDENT SW PERIPHERY OF A CARVED OUT SE CANADA
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE RATHER UNIFORM ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA (UPPER 30S-LOW 40S) WITH COLDER PUSH OF AIR
FOCUSED INTO NORTHEASTERN ZONES (IF GRADIENT SLACKENS ENOUGH COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY MID 30S)...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR FULL DECOUPLING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

POTENT SW OFF THE CA COAST WILL SWING INLAND TDA AND OVERTOP WRN
RIDGE AS IT AMPLIFIES EWD ACRS THE NRN LAKES BY TUE. TRAILING WX
INDUCING CDFNTL BNDRY WILL RACE EWD WITHIN CONTD PROGRESSIVE FLW
PATTN ALOFT. GIVEN MULTIDAY TRENDS OF A FASTER EWD PROGRESSING SYS
AND GOOD 00Z BASED MED RANGE AGREEMENT MADE SUBSTANTIAL TIMING
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MON-TUE. HWVR OF NOTE W/FASTER EWD PROGRESSION
IS A GENERALLY MORE SUBDUED/DELAYED INFUSION OF WRN GOMEX BASED MSTR
RTN WHICH SHLD LIMIT QPFS TO AOB ONE HALF INCH FOR EVENT TOTALS.

OTRWS SERIES OF SFC RIDGES TO BLD SEWD OUT OF CANADA IN WAKE OF THIS
SYS PARTICULARLY LT PD IN CONCERT W/SECONDARY NRN STREAM SW DIGGING
SEWD SOUTH OF JAMES BAY. MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED EC/GFS SOLUTIONS
WORRYING BUT AS YET WIDELY DISPARATE. REGARDLESS PRONOUNCED BLOW OF
CAA LIKELY WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DECENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH KSBN AROUND DAYBREAK
AND KFWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITHIN INITIAL ELEVATED SURGE OF MOISTURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR VCSH/SHRA
INCLUSION. COOLING/SATURATION IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN WHERE BETTER PROBABILITY EXISTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FUEL ALT TO IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY
BR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS/BR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 250459
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND FORECAST TO REACH THE
60S...WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 40S TONIGHT. UNSEASONABLY
MILD AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW A BIT DEEPER COLUMN OF
MOISTURE TONIGHT BUT SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC CLOUDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING. FEELING IS THAT 12Z
MODELS MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 12Z REGIONAL
RAOBS...WHICH OTHERWISE ARE QUITE DRY....AND ARE PROJECTING IT
DOWNSTREAM WITH SYNOPTIC WAVE. SEVERAL MODELS CAME IN WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS QPF WHERE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD LITTLE IF ANY. NAM12 AND
GFS40 DO SHOW A DECENT SHORT WAVE AND VORT MAX BUT MUCH LOWER THAN
THE TYPICAL 500MB LEVEL. A NICE REFLECTION IS SEEN AROUND 850-700MB
ALONG WITH SOME SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE
IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COLUMN. WITH A
LACK OF SUPPORT CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AND LIGHT NATURE
EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SILENT 10 TO 14 PERCENT
POPS. HOWEVER...WILL ADD CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AS EVEN LAST NIGHTS
SYSTEM OVER PERFORMED WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST.

EXPECT MAIN SURFACE FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT TO MOVE THROUGH MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE FLOW COMES AROUND OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE INITIALIZATION AND EARLY VERIFICATION OF THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS WELL OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ALSO HAVE HAD REASONABLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO HAVE CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
GIVEN VIGOROUS UPPER AIR SUPPORT...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
RAISED HIGHS OVER NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
REACHING 72F TO 76F OVER ALL LAND AREAS EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE GFS
NOW COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AT 850 MB SATURDAY MORNING WITH A -10C.
THEREFORE...TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE FRIDAY IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

DECENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ESE THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL FORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH KSBN AROUND DAYBREAK
AND KFWA BY MID-LATE MORNING. ISOLATED SHRA/SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITHIN INITIAL ELEVATED SURGE OF MOISTURE EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR VCSH/SHRA
INCLUSION. COOLING/SATURATION IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THIS FRONT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIG
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY AT KSBN WHERE BETTER PROBABILITY EXISTS
FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF FUEL ALT TO IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...PATCHY
BR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DRIER AIR SCOURS OUT ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS/BR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250342
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1142 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER
TONIGHT.

LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND
BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...KOCH

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250342
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1142 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER
TONIGHT.

LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 250600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1141 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND OR FOG OVERNIGHT AFTER 07Z AT LAF AND HUF AND 09Z AT IND AND
BMG. CIRRUS AND AC MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING IFR OR WORSE.
WOULD ALSO NOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE OR VERY LIGHT SHOWER...BUT
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO MENTION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER
15Z IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD REACH DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES FROM 12Z-18Z. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
TO UP TO 11 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...KOCH

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250220
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1020 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER
TONIGHT.

LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0300Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1020 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND PERHAPS FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM.
HOWEVER...CIRRUS AND AC MAY HINDER THIS SCENARIO TO A DEGREE. SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...MK

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000
FXUS63 KIND 250136
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../OVERNIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER ABOUT 250500Z WITHIN A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ZONE. A FEW RADAR ECHOES BEGINNING TO SHOW UP OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

APPEARS LOWER CLOUD COVER IS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD UPSTREAM...SO
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE CLOUD COVER LATER
TONIGHT.

LOWS STILL LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND PERHAPS FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM.
HOWEVER...CIRRUS AND AC MAY HINDER THIS SCENARIO TO A DEGREE. SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/JAS
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 242320
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
720 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW A BIT DEEPER COLUMN OF
MOISTURE TONIGHT BUT SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC CLOUDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING. FEELING IS THAT 12Z
MODELS MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 12Z REGIONAL
RAOBS...WHICH OTHERWISE ARE QUITE DRY....AND ARE PROJECTING IT
DOWNSTREAM WITH SYNOPTIC WAVE. SEVERAL MODELS CAME IN WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS QPF WHERE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD LITTLE IF ANY. NAM12 AND
GFS40 DO SHOW A DECENT SHORT WAVE AND VORT MAX BUT MUCH LOWER THAN
THE TYPICAL 500MB LEVEL. A NICE REFLECTION IS SEEN AROUND 850-700MB
ALONG WITH SOME SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE
IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COLUMN. WITH A
LACK OF SUPPORT CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AND LIGHT NATURE
EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SILENT 10 TO 14 PERCENT
POPS. HOWEVER...WILL ADD CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AS EVEN LAST NIGHTS
SYSTEM OVER PERFORMED WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST.

EXPECT MAIN SURFACE FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT TO MOVE THROUGH MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE FLOW COMES AROUND OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE INITIALIZATION AND EARLY VERIFICATION OF THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS WELL OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ALSO HAVE HAD REASONABLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO HAVE CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
GIVEN VIGOROUS UPPER AIR SUPPORT...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
RAISED HIGHS OVER NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
REACHING 72F TO 76F OVER ALL LAND AREAS EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE GFS
NOW COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AT 850 MB SATURDAY MORNING WITH A -10C.
THEREFORE...TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE FRIDAY IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MODEST SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH BUT COULD BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
LATEST UPSTREAM OBS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. LEFT IN A ROUGHLY 8 HOUR
WINDOW OF FUEL ALTERNATE CONDITIONS BUT ACTUAL DURATION WILL
LIKELY BE SHORTER AND CAN BE FURTHER REFINED WITH THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE. BEST CHANCES FOR FUEL ALTERNATE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
AROUND 11-13Z. COULD BE SOME PATCHY BR DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
STRONG DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL SCOUR OUT ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 242251
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
651 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 25/0000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 651 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR WORSE IN STRATUS
AND PERHAPS FOG OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME VERY LIGHT TO CALM.
HOWEVER...CIRRUS AND AC MAY HINDER THIS SCENARIO TO A DEGREE. SHOULD
SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO UP TO 11 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...MK

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000
FXUS63 KIND 242034
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
434 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/2100Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 434 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE TAF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG /MVFR
CONDITIONS/ IN OUTLYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 11 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241958
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW A BIT DEEPER COLUMN OF
MOISTURE TONIGHT BUT SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC CLOUDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING. FEELING IS THAT 12Z
MODELS MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 12Z REGIONAL
RAOBS...WHICH OTHERWISE ARE QUITE DRY....AND ARE PROJECTING IT
DOWNSTREAM WITH SYNOPTIC WAVE. SEVERAL MODELS CAME IN WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS QPF WHERE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD LITTLE IF ANY. NAM12 AND
GFS40 DO SHOW A DECENT SHORT WAVE AND VORT MAX BUT MUCH LOWER THAN
THE TYPICAL 500MB LEVEL. A NICE REFLECTION IS SEEN AROUND 850-700MB
ALONG WITH SOME SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE
IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COLUMN. WITH A
LACK OF SUPPORT CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AND LIGHT NATURE
EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SILENT 10 TO 14 PERCENT
POPS. HOWEVER...WILL ADD CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AS EVEN LAST NIGHTS
SYSTEM OVER PERFORMED WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST.

EXPECT MAIN SURFACE FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT TO MOVE THROUGH MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE FLOW COMES AROUND OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE INITIALIZATION AND EARLY VERIFICATION OF THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS WELL OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ALSO HAVE HAD REASONABLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO HAVE CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
GIVEN VIGOROUS UPPER AIR SUPPORT...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
RAISED HIGHS OVER NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
REACHING 72F TO 76F OVER ALL LAND AREAS EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE GFS
NOW COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AT 850 MB SATURDAY MORNING WITH A -10C.
THEREFORE...TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE FRIDAY IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SKIES BEGINNING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BUT DYNAMICS NOT AS STRONG. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A NARROW WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG WEAK
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS. REGARDLESS...TAFS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH MOIST
LOWER LEVELS AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT SAT MORNING TO REMAIN
CLOUDY AGAIN WITH MIXING AND CLEARING FOLLOWING MAIN FRONT BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241958
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 12Z MODELS DO SHOW A BIT DEEPER COLUMN OF
MOISTURE TONIGHT BUT SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC CLOUDS UPSTREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG
ACROSS THE MIDWEST LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNING. FEELING IS THAT 12Z
MODELS MAY HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 12Z REGIONAL
RAOBS...WHICH OTHERWISE ARE QUITE DRY....AND ARE PROJECTING IT
DOWNSTREAM WITH SYNOPTIC WAVE. SEVERAL MODELS CAME IN WITH A FEW
HUNDREDTHS QPF WHERE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD LITTLE IF ANY. NAM12 AND
GFS40 DO SHOW A DECENT SHORT WAVE AND VORT MAX BUT MUCH LOWER THAN
THE TYPICAL 500MB LEVEL. A NICE REFLECTION IS SEEN AROUND 850-700MB
ALONG WITH SOME SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300K SURFACE
IN TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE COLUMN. WITH A
LACK OF SUPPORT CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE AND RADAR AND LIGHT NATURE
EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE SILENT 10 TO 14 PERCENT
POPS. HOWEVER...WILL ADD CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES AS EVEN LAST NIGHTS
SYSTEM OVER PERFORMED WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. LOWS TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS INCREASING WILL RANGE FROM MIDDLE
40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST.

EXPECT MAIN SURFACE FRONT WITH WIND SHIFT TO MOVE THROUGH MID
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY WITH CLEARING IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INFILTRATING THE NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON ONCE FLOW COMES AROUND OFF THE LAKE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE INITIALIZATION AND EARLY VERIFICATION OF THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM THAT THIS AFTERNOON WAS WELL OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA. THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ALSO HAVE HAD REASONABLE
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...SO HAVE CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER TUESDAY
GIVEN VIGOROUS UPPER AIR SUPPORT...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE
LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
RAISED HIGHS OVER NORTHEAST AREAS MONDAY...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS
REACHING 72F TO 76F OVER ALL LAND AREAS EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO LAKE
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE GFS
NOW COLDER THAN THE ECMWF AT 850 MB SATURDAY MORNING WITH A -10C.
THEREFORE...TRENDED HIGHS DOWN A LITTLE FRIDAY IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST ECMWF AND GFS LONG TERM GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SKIES BEGINNING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BUT DYNAMICS NOT AS STRONG. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A NARROW WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG WEAK
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS. REGARDLESS...TAFS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH MOIST
LOWER LEVELS AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT SAT MORNING TO REMAIN
CLOUDY AGAIN WITH MIXING AND CLEARING FOLLOWING MAIN FRONT BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...LASHLEY
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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000
FXUS63 KIND 241857
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM...AND
LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY PERHAPS
BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL BRING BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN TUESDAY ALONG WITH COOLER WEATHER THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER
UPPER SYSTEM.

MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE ONE
THAT MOVED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND BROUGHT MEASURABLE RAIN...SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ADDING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN TO THE FORECAST. HI
RES RAPID REFRESH IS SHOWING SHOWERS MOVING IN AFTER 06Z THOUGH. NAM
HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.

THUS WILL REINTRODUCE SPRINKLES TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WILL START AT 06Z.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL TEMPERATURES AS
THESE REFLECT EXPECTED TRENDS INCLUDING TIMING OF THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AND ON ANY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE
PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EAST WITH THE EXITING UPPER SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
ADD TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA AND
ALLOW SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID AFTERNOON.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
BUT COLD ADVECTION REALLY DOES NOT KICK IN UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.
THUS WENT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MOS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN. WENT CLOSE TO A MODEL BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ENDS UP CLOSE TO MOS MOST AREAS.

MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WARM ADVECTION
KICKS IN. NOT ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE FOR ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON MONDAY THANKS
TO SOME SUN AND THE WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT CENTRAL INDIANA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES ON TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY...DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON THURSDAY.  TEMPS WILL
START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.  THEY WILL
DRASTICALLY PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
THOUGH...HIGHS WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG /MVFR
CONDITIONS/ IN OUTLYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 11 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TDUD

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241729
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
129 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRACTURED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS WITH LITTLE/NO REFLECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPORT FROM A VORT MAX
(SHOWING UP OVER SRN LAKE MI ON MORNING WATER VAPOR) AND THINNING
CORRIDOR OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF A BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MIX/SCATTER OUT A
BIT LATER TODAY...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM A
PAC NW/SW CANADA 150+ KT UPPER JET AND TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NRN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOLD OVER OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE OCT STANDARDS. COULD ALSO SEE ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MODEST
925-850 MB WAA SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP GIVEN LACK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND UNFAVORABLE POSITION IN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A SRN
CANADA TO NRN LAKES UPPER JET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SYS OF NOTE FOR THIS PD LIES OUT NR 140W THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FLW AND PERTURBATION
STREAKING THROUGH JAMES BAY CONTS TO OSCILLATE IN SOME DEGREE AMG
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH AS YET CONTS TO YIELD SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO TEMPS MAINLY SUNDAY. 00Z SUITE AS A WHOLE MUCH MORE
SUBDUED W/BACKDOOR CDFNT SAT NIGHT AND INDICATE ROBUST LL WAA DVLPG
BY AFTN. THUS IN NOD OF GEFS AGREEMENT AND DECIDED UPWARD TREND SEE
NO REASON TO NOT BUMP SUN TEMPS UP HIGHER AGAIN.

W/PROGRESSIVE PATTN ALOFT IN PLACE WRN SYS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES NEWD
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO TUE AS TRAILING SHARP CDFNT BURSTS EAST. LL
THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS FTR QUITE STG W/CORE OF 16-18C H85 TEMPS
NOSING INTO THE SRN LAKE MON. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MIX DOWN FM H9
PORTENDS ADDNL UPWARD HEADROOM LIKELY AND SEEMS PRUDENT TO USE
WARMEST GUIDANCE BLEND PSBL. SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E SURGE WITHIN BROAD
LLJ W/WRN GOMEX ORIGINS FOLLOWS MON NIGHT/TUE AHD OF EWD SURGING
CDFNT. GIVEN FVRBL THETA-E RIDGING LT MON NIGHT AND MODEST MASS MSTR
FLUX NW THIRD ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA W/TSRA PSBL AS WHATS
LEFT OF PLAINS EML ADVTS OVERHEAD. OTRWS GIST OF PRIOR TUE FCST
HOLDS W/HIGHER POPS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
TAIL END OF GREATER GLANCING HGT FALLS.

VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD TUE NIGHT AND CUT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH EVENING AND ALTOGETHER LATE AS FNTL BNDRY IS CLRG THE EAST
COAST AT THAT TIME. RIDGING AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS XPCD IN WAKE
OF THIS SYS WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SKIES BEGINNING TO PARTIALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND DEPARTING WEAK SHORT WAVE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO TREND TO
VFR THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SIMILAR TIMING AS LAST NIGHT. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO HAVE
A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME BUT DYNAMICS NOT AS STRONG. THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE A NARROW WINDOW OF LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG WEAK
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS. REGARDLESS...TAFS WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VIS WITH MOIST
LOWER LEVELS AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES. EXPECT SAT MORNING TO REMAIN
CLOUDY AGAIN WITH MIXING AND CLEARING FOLLOWING MAIN FRONT BY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...LASHLEY


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000
FXUS63 KIND 241701
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
101 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. THUS
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPANDING THEM
SOUTHWEST PER RADAR.

RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN DRIER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.

LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS THROUGH LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1243 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MAJORITY OF TAF PERIOD DESPITE
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD
FRONT. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG /MVFR
CONDITIONS/ IN OUTLYING AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIGHT TONIGHT. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 11 KTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&


$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...TDUD

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 241512
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1112 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY...SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE...A WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE.
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
LOW 70S.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRACTURED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS WITH LITTLE/NO REFLECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPORT FROM A VORT MAX
(SHOWING UP OVER SRN LAKE MI ON MORNING WATER VAPOR) AND THINNING
CORRIDOR OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF A BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MIX/SCATTER OUT A
BIT LATER TODAY...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM A
PAC NW/SW CANADA 150+ KT UPPER JET AND TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NRN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOLD OVER OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE OCT STANDARDS. COULD ALSO SEE ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MODEST
925-850 MB WAA SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP GIVEN LACK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND UNFAVORABLE POSITION IN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A SRN
CANADA TO NRN LAKES UPPER JET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SYS OF NOTE FOR THIS PD LIES OUT NR 140W THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FLW AND PERTURBATION
STREAKING THROUGH JAMES BAY CONTS TO OSCILLATE IN SOME DEGREE AMG
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH AS YET CONTS TO YIELD SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO TEMPS MAINLY SUNDAY. 00Z SUITE AS A WHOLE MUCH MORE
SUBDUED W/BACKDOOR CDFNT SAT NIGHT AND INDICATE ROBUST LL WAA DVLPG
BY AFTN. THUS IN NOD OF GEFS AGREEMENT AND DECIDED UPWARD TREND SEE
NO REASON TO NOT BUMP SUN TEMPS UP HIGHER AGAIN.

W/PROGRESSIVE PATTN ALOFT IN PLACE WRN SYS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES NEWD
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO TUE AS TRAILING SHARP CDFNT BURSTS EAST. LL
THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS FTR QUITE STG W/CORE OF 16-18C H85 TEMPS
NOSING INTO THE SRN LAKE MON. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MIX DOWN FM H9
PORTENDS ADDNL UPWARD HEADROOM LIKELY AND SEEMS PRUDENT TO USE
WARMEST GUIDANCE BLEND PSBL. SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E SURGE WITHIN BROAD
LLJ W/WRN GOMEX ORIGINS FOLLOWS MON NIGHT/TUE AHD OF EWD SURGING
CDFNT. GIVEN FVRBL THETA-E RIDGING LT MON NIGHT AND MODEST MASS MSTR
FLUX NW THIRD ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA W/TSRA PSBL AS WHATS
LEFT OF PLAINS EML ADVTS OVERHEAD. OTRWS GIST OF PRIOR TUE FCST
HOLDS W/HIGHER POPS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
TAIL END OF GREATER GLANCING HGT FALLS.

VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD TUE NIGHT AND CUT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH EVENING AND ALTOGETHER LATE AS FNTL BNDRY IS CLRG THE EAST
COAST AT THAT TIME. RIDGING AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS XPCD IN WAKE
OF THIS SYS WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NARROWING MOISTURE CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH MVFR-LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE SCATTERS STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY.
VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHEARING TROUGH OVER SRN LAKE MI HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP WEST OF KFWA AS OF THIS
WRITING. MAY NEED TO ADD A VCSH MENTION AT TAF ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY REGARDLESS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCD
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. THUS
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPANDING THEM
SOUTHWEST PER RADAR.

RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN DRIER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.

LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS THROUGH LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 241414
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. THUS
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPANDING THEM
SOUTHWEST PER RADAR.

RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN DRIER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.

LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS THROUGH LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 24/1500Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 1012 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/TDUD

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 241335
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RAIN IS STILL REACHING THE GROUND FROM THE SLOW MOVING RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...EVEN THOUGH LOW LEVELS ARE PRETTY DRY. THUS
KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...EXPANDING THEM
SOUTHWEST PER RADAR.

RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SOME LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST WHERE
ATMOSPHERE IS EVEN DRIER. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR
BEHIND THE UPPER SYSTEM.

LEFT HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONE FOR NOW BUT MAY HAVE TO CHANGE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUN BREAKS THROUGH LATER ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 241056
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
656 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS PRECIP HAS HELD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED. MOST AREAS STILL UNLIKELY TO
MEASURE...BUT AT LEAST SOME WILL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 241056
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
656 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 656 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ADDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AS PRECIP HAS HELD
TOGETHER MUCH BETTER THAN EXPECTED. MOST AREAS STILL UNLIKELY TO
MEASURE...BUT AT LEAST SOME WILL. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

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000
FXUS63 KIND 241022
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
622 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 241200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 617 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MOSTLY VFR CU SPREADING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING.
SOME MVFR CAT CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE AT LOCATIONS SUCH AT KLAF AND
KHUF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST 7 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 240935
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRACTURED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS WITH LITTLE/NO REFLECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPORT FROM A VORT MAX
(SHOWING UP OVER SRN LAKE MI ON MORNING WATER VAPOR) AND THINNING
CORRIDOR OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF A BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MIX/SCATTER OUT A
BIT LATER TODAY...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM A
PAC NW/SW CANADA 150+ KT UPPER JET AND TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NRN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOLD OVER OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE OCT STANDARDS. COULD ALSO SEE ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MODEST
925-850 MB WAA SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP GIVEN LACK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND UNFAVORABLE POSITION IN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A SRN
CANADA TO NRN LAKES UPPER JET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SYS OF NOTE FOR THIS PD LIES OUT NR 140W THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FLW AND PERTURBATION
STREAKING THROUGH JAMES BAY CONTS TO OSCILLATE IN SOME DEGREE AMG
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH AS YET CONTS TO YIELD SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO TEMPS MAINLY SUNDAY. 00Z SUITE AS A WHOLE MUCH MORE
SUBDUED W/BACKDOOR CDFNT SAT NIGHT AND INDICATE ROBUST LL WAA DVLPG
BY AFTN. THUS IN NOD OF GEFS AGREEMENT AND DECIDED UPWARD TREND SEE
NO REASON TO NOT BUMP SUN TEMPS UP HIGHER AGAIN.

W/PROGRESSIVE PATTN ALOFT IN PLACE WRN SYS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES NEWD
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO TUE AS TRAILING SHARP CDFNT BURSTS EAST. LL
THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS FTR QUITE STG W/CORE OF 16-18C H85 TEMPS
NOSING INTO THE SRN LAKE MON. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MIX DOWN FM H9
PORTENDS ADDNL UPWARD HEADROOM LIKELY AND SEEMS PRUDENT TO USE
WARMEST GUIDANCE BLEND PSBL. SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E SURGE WITHIN BROAD
LLJ W/WRN GOMEX ORIGINS FOLLOWS MON NIGHT/TUE AHD OF EWD SURGING
CDFNT. GIVEN FVRBL THETA-E RIDGING LT MON NIGHT AND MODEST MASS MSTR
FLUX NW THIRD ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA W/TSRA PSBL AS WHATS
LEFT OF PLAINS EML ADVTS OVERHEAD. OTRWS GIST OF PRIOR TUE FCST
HOLDS W/HIGHER POPS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
TAIL END OF GREATER GLANCING HGT FALLS.

VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD TUE NIGHT AND CUT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH EVENING AND ALTOGETHER LATE AS FNTL BNDRY IS CLRG THE EAST
COAST AT THAT TIME. RIDGING AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS XPCD IN WAKE
OF THIS SYS WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NARROWING MOISTURE CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH MVFR-LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE SCATTERS STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY.
VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHEARING TROUGH OVER SRN LAKE MI HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP WEST OF KFWA AS OF THIS
WRITING. MAY NEED TO ADD A VCSH MENTION AT TAF ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY REGARDLESS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240814
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

0815Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR CU WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR
CAT ESPECIALLY AT LAF. THE CU WILL BE DECREASING FIRST AT LAF AFTER
17Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240814
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
414 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

0815Z UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

VFR CU WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR
CAT ESPECIALLY AT LAF. THE CU WILL BE DECREASING FIRST AT LAF AFTER
17Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...SMF/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 240759
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WITH THE AREA ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LATE TONIGHT. WHILE
THESE FEATURES MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES...THEIR MORE
LIKELY IMPACTS ARE MERELY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
WILL BE NEARLY IDEAL AS FAR AS AUTUMN WEEKENDS GO IN CENTRAL
INDIANA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL QUICKLY REASSERT CONTROL LATE NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK UPPER WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS AS SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
ACCOMPANIES THE FEATURE. WILL CARRY A 14 POP AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SPRINKLES TODAY AS MOST AREAS WILL BE UNLIKELY TO MEASURE BUT
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST A FEW DROPS FROM THE SKY.

ON TEMPS...UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND SKY COVER EXPECTATIONS SUGGEST THE
MODEL BLEND IS A BIT TOO WARM TODAY AND HAVE DROPPED THEM A DEGREE
OR SO...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
IN THE FORM OF A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHANCE OF SPRINKLES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE FORECAST AS
ACCOMPANIED FORCING IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN THIS MORNINGS
WAVE WHICH HAS ONLY THUS FAR MANAGED TO PRODUCE A VERY WEAK LINE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA AND EASTERN ILLINOIS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCE UPON DEPARTURE OF THIS TROUGH
AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY WARMER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AND BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BUMPED CONSENSUS NUMBERS UP SLIGHTLY
AS THIS COMPARES MORE FAVORABLY TO UPSTREAM NUMBERS AND THICKNESS
PROGS. MID AUTUMN WEEKENDS ARE RARELY MORE IDEAL THAN THIS ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THIS EVENT THANKS TO GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS AND CONSISTENCY TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ON TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ROLLING THROUGH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER. TEMPERATURES START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD
THEN AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK. SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION GENERALLY WORKED WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 240600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CU WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT. ALSO...WOULD NOT RULE OUT MVFR
CAT ESPECIALLY AT LAF. THE CU WILL BE DECREASING FIRST AT LAF AFTER
17Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SOUTHWEST 7
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...SMF
AVIATION...KOCH

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 240742
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRACTURED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS WITH LITTLE/NO REFLECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPORT FROM A VORT MAX
(SHOWING UP OVER SRN LAKE MI ON MORNING WATER VAPOR) AND THINNING
CORRIDOR OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF A BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MIX/SCATTER OUT A
BIT LATER TODAY...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM A
PAC NW/SW CANADA 150+ KT UPPER JET AND TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NRN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOLD OVER OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE OCT STANDARDS. COULD ALSO SEE ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MODEST
925-850 MB WAA SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SYS OF NOTE FOR THIS PD LIES OUT NR 140W THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FLW AND PERTURBATION
STREAKING THROUGH JAMES BAY CONTS TO OSCILLATE IN SOME DEGREE AMG
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH AS YET CONTS TO YIELD SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO TEMPS MAINLY SUNDAY. 00Z SUITE AS A WHOLE MUCH MORE
SUBDUED W/BACKDOOR CDFNT SAT NIGHT AND INDICATE ROBUST LL WAA DVLPG
BY AFTN. THUS IN NOD OF GEFS AGREEMENT AND DECIDED UPWARD TREND SEE
NO REASON TO NOT BUMP SUN TEMPS UP HIGHER AGAIN.

W/PROGRESSIVE PATTN ALOFT IN PLACE WRN SYS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES NEWD
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO TUE AS TRAILING SHARP CDFNT BURSTS EAST. LL
THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS FTR QUITE STG W/CORE OF 16-18C H85 TEMPS
NOSING INTO THE SRN LAKE MON. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MIX DOWN FM H9
PORTENDS ADDNL UPWARD HEADROOM LIKELY AND SEEMS PRUDENT TO USE
WARMEST GUIDANCE BLEND PSBL. SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E SURGE WITHIN BROAD
LLJ W/WRN GOMEX ORIGINS FOLLOWS MON NIGHT/TUE AHD OF EWD SURGING
CDFNT. GIVEN FVRBL THETA-E RIDGING LT MON NIGHT AND MODEST MASS MSTR
FLUX NW THIRD ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA W/TSRA PSBL AS WHATS
LEFT OF PLAINS EML ADVTS OVERHEAD. OTRWS GIST OF PRIOR TUE FCST
HOLDS W/HIGHER POPS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
TAIL END OF GREATER GLANCING HGT FALLS.

VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD TUE NIGHT AND CUT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH EVENING AND ALTOGETHER LATE AS FNTL BNDRY IS CLRG THE EAST
COAST AT THAT TIME. RIDGING AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS XPCD IN WAKE
OF THIS SYS WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WEAK ELEVATED TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS IL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY
EAST INTO NRN IN THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO HIGH
MVFR-LOW VFR AROUND DAYBREAK AT SBN AND LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AT FWA BEFORE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING LIKELY SCATTERS THIS
STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY. DRY OTHERWISE WITH LIGHT
SSW WINDS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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