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000
FXUS63 KIWX 012330
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
730 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A RELATIVELY
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AS
LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF
U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH
THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120 KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC
WRF...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY
FROM AN EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PWAT
VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND
12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL
WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD
STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS RIDGING
WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE
PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH NRN QB. HWVR
SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS DURING THE DAY WED
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS EJECTING EWD THROUGH
SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT
SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH
W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN
REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN
A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS CURRENTLY
EXITED THE AREA. MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST THOUGH
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AROUND KSBN BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND HAVE
THEREFORE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
AT KFWA. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET. STILL SOME QUESTION
AS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRECIP WILL REACH BUT CURRENT HI-
RES MODELS SUGGEST KFWA WILL GET CLIPPED AROUND 09-12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN CEILING HEIGHTS TO GO WITH FUEL
ALTERNATE CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KFWA BY
LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 012330
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
730 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A RELATIVELY
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AS
LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF
U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH
THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120 KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC
WRF...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY
FROM AN EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PWAT
VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND
12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL
WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD
STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS RIDGING
WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE
PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH NRN QB. HWVR
SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS DURING THE DAY WED
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS EJECTING EWD THROUGH
SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT
SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH
W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN
REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN
A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH HAS CURRENTLY
EXITED THE AREA. MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL TO OUR WEST THOUGH
AND WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AROUND KSBN BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND HAVE
THEREFORE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
BE POSSIBLE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
AT KFWA. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER MISSOURI WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET. STILL SOME QUESTION
AS TO EXACTLY HOW FAR NORTH THIS PRECIP WILL REACH BUT CURRENT HI-
RES MODELS SUGGEST KFWA WILL GET CLIPPED AROUND 09-12Z TOMORROW
MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN CEILING HEIGHTS TO GO WITH FUEL
ALTERNATE CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KFWA BY
LATE TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...AGD


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA





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000
FXUS63 KIND 012312
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
712 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER CALM CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALSO BRINGING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
DRASTICALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT FROM
DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL INDIANA
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY AS ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR TONIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS IN REGARD TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE
NAM/EURO...IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  BUT THE GFS TAKES THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
CANADIAN TAKES IT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
AND EURO ARE CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO LOCATION OF RAIN /CENTRAL
PORTIONS/...BUT ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS RECENTLY EITHER...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
NO WATCH.

ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS OVER THAT
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
WARM FRONT WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE EURO IN REGARD TO START TIME OF PRECIP.
SO...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
A SHARP WAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO
BUCKLE THE RIDGE AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THE COOLEST SEEN IN THE REGION SINCE THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR ACROSS THE SITES TO START OUT BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUSTS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND THE FORCING PRODUCING THESE WILL BE MOVING THIS WAY. EXPECTING
STORMS TO ARRIVE AT THE SITES STARTING WITH KHUF AROUND 3-4Z AND
KBMG/KIND AROUND 4-5Z AND KLAF CLOSER TO 7Z. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN OVER THE SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO
CONTINUED WITH EARLIER FORECAST OF STORMS THROUGH AROUND 13-15Z
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THAT AND WITHIN A
FEW HOURS SHOULD MIX CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BACK UP TO VFR FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS




000
FXUS63 KIND 012312
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
712 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER CALM CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALSO BRINGING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
DRASTICALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT FROM
DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL INDIANA
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY AS ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR TONIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS IN REGARD TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE
NAM/EURO...IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  BUT THE GFS TAKES THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
CANADIAN TAKES IT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
AND EURO ARE CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO LOCATION OF RAIN /CENTRAL
PORTIONS/...BUT ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS RECENTLY EITHER...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
NO WATCH.

ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS OVER THAT
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
WARM FRONT WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE EURO IN REGARD TO START TIME OF PRECIP.
SO...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
A SHARP WAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO
BUCKLE THE RIDGE AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THE COOLEST SEEN IN THE REGION SINCE THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 020000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 703 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR ACROSS THE SITES TO START OUT BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
DETERIORATE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GUSTS WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FIRE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
AND THE FORCING PRODUCING THESE WILL BE MOVING THIS WAY. EXPECTING
STORMS TO ARRIVE AT THE SITES STARTING WITH KHUF AROUND 3-4Z AND
KBMG/KIND AROUND 4-5Z AND KLAF CLOSER TO 7Z. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD REMAIN OVER THE SITES FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO
CONTINUED WITH EARLIER FORECAST OF STORMS THROUGH AROUND 13-15Z
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE AFTER THAT AND WITHIN A
FEW HOURS SHOULD MIX CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BACK UP TO VFR FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS





000
FXUS63 KIND 012111
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER CALM CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALSO BRINGING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
DRASTICALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
70S FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT FROM
DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL INDIANA
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY AS ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR TONIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS IN REGARD TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE
NAM/EURO...IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  BUT THE GFS TAKES THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
CANADIAN TAKES IT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
AND EURO ARE CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO LOCATION OF RAIN /CENTRAL
PORTIONS/...BUT ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS RECENTLY EITHER...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
NO WATCH.

ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS OVER THAT
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
WARM FRONT WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE EURO IN REGARD TO START TIME OF PRECIP.
SO...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
A SHARP WAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO
BUCKLE THE RIDGE AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THE COOLEST SEEN IN THE REGION SINCE THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE ALREADY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS
BACK TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KSTL...AND VERY
WELL MAY SERVE AS THE INITIAL CATALYST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A
BIT. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LEFT A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH THE WRF ALREADY OVERDOING CONVECTION. HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH GREATER THAN VCTS AT ALL SITES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AT 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION REMAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO GO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT BACK ONSET
TIMING TO 04-06Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
HEAVIER STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A W/NW DIRECTION ONCE THE LOW AND FRONT SHIFT EAST BY
MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BEFORE
RAIN ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 012111
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER CALM CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALSO BRINGING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
DRASTICALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
70S FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT FROM
DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL INDIANA
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY AS ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR TONIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS IN REGARD TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE
NAM/EURO...IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  BUT THE GFS TAKES THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
CANADIAN TAKES IT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
AND EURO ARE CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO LOCATION OF RAIN /CENTRAL
PORTIONS/...BUT ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS RECENTLY EITHER...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
NO WATCH.

ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS OVER THAT
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
WARM FRONT WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE EURO IN REGARD TO START TIME OF PRECIP.
SO...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
A SHARP WAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO
BUCKLE THE RIDGE AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THE COOLEST SEEN IN THE REGION SINCE THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE ALREADY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS
BACK TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KSTL...AND VERY
WELL MAY SERVE AS THE INITIAL CATALYST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A
BIT. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LEFT A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH THE WRF ALREADY OVERDOING CONVECTION. HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH GREATER THAN VCTS AT ALL SITES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AT 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION REMAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO GO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT BACK ONSET
TIMING TO 04-06Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
HEAVIER STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A W/NW DIRECTION ONCE THE LOW AND FRONT SHIFT EAST BY
MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BEFORE
RAIN ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 012111
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER CALM CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALSO BRINGING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
DRASTICALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
70S FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT FROM
DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL INDIANA
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY AS ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR TONIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS IN REGARD TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE
NAM/EURO...IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  BUT THE GFS TAKES THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
CANADIAN TAKES IT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
AND EURO ARE CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO LOCATION OF RAIN /CENTRAL
PORTIONS/...BUT ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS RECENTLY EITHER...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
NO WATCH.

ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS OVER THAT
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
WARM FRONT WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE EURO IN REGARD TO START TIME OF PRECIP.
SO...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
A SHARP WAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO
BUCKLE THE RIDGE AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THE COOLEST SEEN IN THE REGION SINCE THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE ALREADY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS
BACK TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KSTL...AND VERY
WELL MAY SERVE AS THE INITIAL CATALYST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A
BIT. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LEFT A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH THE WRF ALREADY OVERDOING CONVECTION. HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH GREATER THAN VCTS AT ALL SITES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AT 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION REMAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO GO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT BACK ONSET
TIMING TO 04-06Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
HEAVIER STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A W/NW DIRECTION ONCE THE LOW AND FRONT SHIFT EAST BY
MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BEFORE
RAIN ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 012111
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER CALM CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALSO BRINGING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
DRASTICALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
70S FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT FROM
DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL INDIANA
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY AS ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR TONIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS IN REGARD TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE
NAM/EURO...IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  BUT THE GFS TAKES THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
CANADIAN TAKES IT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
AND EURO ARE CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO LOCATION OF RAIN /CENTRAL
PORTIONS/...BUT ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS RECENTLY EITHER...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
NO WATCH.

ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS OVER THAT
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
WARM FRONT WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE EURO IN REGARD TO START TIME OF PRECIP.
SO...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
A SHARP WAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO
BUCKLE THE RIDGE AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THE COOLEST SEEN IN THE REGION SINCE THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 012100Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

POOR FLYING CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING IN THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE ALREADY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG AN OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS
BACK TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KSTL...AND VERY
WELL MAY SERVE AS THE INITIAL CATALYST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A
BIT. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LEFT A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH THE WRF ALREADY OVERDOING CONVECTION. HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH GREATER THAN VCTS AT ALL SITES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AT 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION REMAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO GO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT BACK ONSET
TIMING TO 04-06Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
HEAVIER STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A W/NW DIRECTION ONCE THE LOW AND FRONT SHIFT EAST BY
MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BEFORE
RAIN ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 012000
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER CALM CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALSO BRINGING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
DRASTICALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
70S FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT FROM
DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL INDIANA
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY AS ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR TONIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS IN REGARD TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE
NAM/EURO...IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  BUT THE GFS TAKES THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
CANADIAN TAKES IT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
AND EURO ARE CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO LOCATION OF RAIN /CENTRAL
PORTIONS/...BUT ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS RECENTLY EITHER...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
NO WATCH.

ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS OVER THAT
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
WARM FRONT WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE EURO IN REGARD TO START TIME OF PRECIP.
SO...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
A SHARP WAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO
BUCKLE THE RIDGE AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THE COOLEST SEEN IN THE REGION SINCE THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

INSTABILITY BEING LIMITED SO FAR WITH HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS OVER MISSOURI DRIFTING OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF MVFR STRATOCU FROM EARLIER
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT INTO A VFR CU FIELD. SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE ALREADY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS BACK
TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KSTL...AND VERY WELL
MAY SERVE AS THE INITIAL CATALYST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A BIT.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LEFT A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH THE WRF ALREADY OVERDOING CONVECTION. HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH GREATER THAN VCTS AT ALL SITES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AT 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION REMAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO GO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT BACK ONSET
TIMING TO 04-06Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
HEAVIER STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A W/NW DIRECTION ONCE THE LOW AND FRONT SHIFT EAST BY
MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BEFORE
RAIN ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 012000
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
INDIANA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER CALM CONDITIONS
ON WEDNESDAY...A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THE END OF THE WEEK...ALSO BRINGING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER OUT...HIGH TEMPS WILL DROP
DRASTICALLY FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
70S FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE NEAR TERM IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE
THREAT FOR TONIGHT.

SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER HAS INHIBITED ENVIRONMENT FROM
DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON...AND BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE BOTH
NORTH AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL INDIANA. AS A RESULT...CENTRAL INDIANA
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SEVERE THREAT FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY AS ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDES SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT PROGGED FOR TONIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE TO
INCONSISTENCIES IN MODELS IN REGARD TO LOCATION AND AMOUNTS. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN ARE TRENDING WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN THE
NAM/EURO...IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE.  BUT THE GFS TAKES THE HEAVY
RAIN BAND OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE
CANADIAN TAKES IT OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE...THE NAM
AND EURO ARE CONSISTENT IN REGARD TO LOCATION OF RAIN /CENTRAL
PORTIONS/...BUT ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS RECENTLY EITHER...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
NO WATCH.

ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AROUND MID MORNING TOMORROW AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. DRIER AIR
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE
FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WILL HOLD ONTO LOW END POPS OVER THAT
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RE-
INTRODUCTION OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A
WARM FRONT WILL START PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE NOT AGREEING ON TIMING...WITH THE GFS
A TAD FASTER THAN THE EURO IN REGARD TO START TIME OF PRECIP.
SO...WILL JUST INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPANDING FURTHER INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA ON THURSDAY.

TEMPS...STUCK CLOSE TO GUIDANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
TRENDED ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING WARM FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONG
UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
A SHARP WAVE ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SERVE TO
BUCKLE THE RIDGE AND ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO DROP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY.

THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BEGINNING SUNDAY AS LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
FOR CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THE COOLEST SEEN IN THE REGION SINCE THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

INSTABILITY BEING LIMITED SO FAR WITH HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS OVER MISSOURI DRIFTING OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF MVFR STRATOCU FROM EARLIER
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT INTO A VFR CU FIELD. SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE ALREADY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS BACK
TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KSTL...AND VERY WELL
MAY SERVE AS THE INITIAL CATALYST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A BIT.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LEFT A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH THE WRF ALREADY OVERDOING CONVECTION. HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH GREATER THAN VCTS AT ALL SITES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AT 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION REMAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO GO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT BACK ONSET
TIMING TO 04-06Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
HEAVIER STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A W/NW DIRECTION ONCE THE LOW AND FRONT SHIFT EAST BY
MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BEFORE
RAIN ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 011921
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A RELATIVELY
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AS
LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF
U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH
THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120 KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC
WRF...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY
FROM AN EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PWAT
VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND
12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL
WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD
STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS RIDGING
WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE
PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH NRN QB. HWVR
SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS DURING THE DAY WED
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS EJECTING EWD THROUGH
SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT
SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH
W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN
REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN
A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 011921
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
321 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST THIRD OF CWA AS OF
1845Z AS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT A RELATIVELY
STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THROUGH 00Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...AS
LATE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION YIELDING 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE EAST OF
U.S. 31 AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL ORGANIZATION. COVERAGE WORDING REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS LARGE SCALE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
TROF SLIDES EAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE WRT LOCATION/AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL. AS SFC BOUNDARY
SETTLES SOUTHEAST INTO THE FCST AREA...S/W ENERGY EJECTING THROUGH
THE LARGE SCALE TROF AND 120 KT UPPER JET EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE STRONG FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ARW-EAST...NMM-EAST AND 4KM SPC
WRF...SUGGEST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REINFORCING THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY
FROM AN EVANSVILLE TO COLUMBUS OH LINE. LOWER RES GUIDANCE SUCH AS
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF PUTS THE FOCUS OF THE CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE
MAIN SYNOPTIC SFC FORCING...WITH THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAINFALL FROM
KIND TO KCLE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD PUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...FROM A MARION TO PAULDING LINE AND SOUTHWARD...AT RISK
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL
EVENT GIVEN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK OVERHEAD...PWAT
VALUES IN TH 1.6-1.8 INCH RANGE...WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND
12KFT...LITTLE CLOUD LAYER SHEAR AND CLOUD LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE SFC BOUNDARY...UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE LOCATION OF THE RAINFALL
WILL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL POPS OR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT. WILL
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SE OF THE U.S. 24 CORRIDOR. WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
TRENDS TONIGHT AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

AS FRONTAL WAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND SFC
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. POP TRENDS FOR THE TUESDAY PERIOD
STILL IN LINE FROM PREVIOUS FCST...SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

PERTURBED NRN STREAM FLW ACRS SRN CANADA OVERTOP FLAT CONUS RIDGING
WILL CONT THIS PD. HIGH PRES BLDS EWD OUT OF THE PLAINS TO START THE
PD TUE NIGHT IN WAKE OF LEAD SW LIFTING UP THROUGH NRN QB. HWVR
SHALLOW CAA WING GIVES WAY QUICKLY AS FLW BACKS DURING THE DAY WED
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER UPSTREAM VIGOROUS SYS EJECTING EWD THROUGH
SRN AB. THIS SYS WILL CONT TO STREAK EWD THROUGH FRI AS ATTENDANT
SFC BNDRY SAGS SWD INTO THE LWR LAKES/OH VALLEY. HWVR AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE W/MOST OF THESE SYS/S...HGT FALLS ARE CONFINED WELL NORTH
W/TRAILING SFC FNTL BNDRY WKNG THROUGH TIME. AS SUCH AND IN
REFLECTION OF MOST 12Z MED RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...NOTHING MORE THAN
A LOW CHC POP WARRANTED LATE WEEK.

BEYOND THAT SERN US/WRN ATL UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLATTEN FURTHER
W/SECONDARY SW AMPLIFYING THROUGH JAMES BAY NXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW A BIT COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS TO DRIVE SEWD ACRS THE LAKES/NEW
ENGLAND W/SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY WX XPCD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...NG
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIWX 011732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US THURSDAY...AND INTO
ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO ATTENDANT
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BRINGS
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM OUTPUT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO
20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 011732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US THURSDAY...AND INTO
ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO ATTENDANT
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BRINGS
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM OUTPUT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO
20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 011732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US THURSDAY...AND INTO
ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO ATTENDANT
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BRINGS
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM OUTPUT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO
20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 011732
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
132 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERSIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE EAST
THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US THURSDAY...AND INTO
ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO ATTENDANT
CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT BRINGS
CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM OUTPUT AS MORE
PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST OF THE FA ON
NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED
LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMPS INCREASING TO
20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ON REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY JUST UPSTREAM OF KSBN. THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OVER THE
FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF PD...AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE OUTFLOW THROUGH 00Z AT KSBN. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE INVOF KFWA AFTER 21Z W/
THE BOUNDARY...PROMPTING TEMPO TSRA IN KFWA TAF DURING THIS
PERIOD. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...W/ BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KFWA. STILL A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE PD.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NG
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...NG


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 011720
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DID
LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL FROM MODERATE TO LIGHT THROUGH MON
18Z. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES...STILL EXPECT BEST CHANCES/DYNAMICS
AFTER TUE 00Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL TREND OF
INCREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THE COOLER MAV MOS NUMBERS OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY/S
HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12
MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
WORKING AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

INSTABILITY BEING LIMITED SO FAR WITH HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS OVER MISSOURI DRIFTING OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF MVFR STRATOCU FROM EARLIER
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT INTO A VFR CU FIELD. SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE ALREADY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS BACK
TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KSTL...AND VERY WELL
MAY SERVE AS THE INITIAL CATALYST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A BIT.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LEFT A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH THE WRF ALREADY OVERDOING CONVECTION. HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH GREATER THAN VCTS AT ALL SITES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AT 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION REMAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO GO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT BACK ONSET
TIMING TO 04-06Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
HEAVIER STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A W/NW DIRECTION ONCE THE LOW AND FRONT SHIFT EAST BY
MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BEFORE
RAIN ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 011720
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DID
LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL FROM MODERATE TO LIGHT THROUGH MON
18Z. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES...STILL EXPECT BEST CHANCES/DYNAMICS
AFTER TUE 00Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL TREND OF
INCREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THE COOLER MAV MOS NUMBERS OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY/S
HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12
MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
WORKING AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON...POOR FLYING
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

INSTABILITY BEING LIMITED SO FAR WITH HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEBRIS FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS OVER MISSOURI DRIFTING OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONALLY...POCKETS OF MVFR STRATOCU FROM EARLIER
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT INTO A VFR CU FIELD. SCATTERED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL WAVE ALREADY EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS BACK
TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR KSTL...AND VERY WELL
MAY SERVE AS THE INITIAL CATALYST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES A BIT.
SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LEFT A LOT TO BE DESIRED SO FAR
TODAY...WITH THE WRF ALREADY OVERDOING CONVECTION. HARD TO JUSTIFY
MUCH GREATER THAN VCTS AT ALL SITES AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST
AT 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOCUS FOR GREATER IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION REMAIN FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A GROWING MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING...GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO GO INTO EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN PREVAILING THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS...BUT BACK ONSET
TIMING TO 04-06Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
HEAVIER STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
VEER TO A W/NW DIRECTION ONCE THE LOW AND FRONT SHIFT EAST BY
MIDDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED BEFORE
RAIN ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DID
LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL FROM MODERATE TO LIGHT THROUGH MON
18Z. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES...STILL EXPECT BEST CHANCES/DYNAMICS
AFTER TUE 00Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL TREND OF
INCREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THE COOLER MAV MOS NUMBERS OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY/S
HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12
MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
WORKING AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RATHER SLOPPY CHAOTIC CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS FALLEN APART TO THE WEST ALREADY DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WHILE THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD ENABLE VFR CEILINGS TO
EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT 1500-2000FT
CEILINGS THROUGH 17-18Z. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOING POORLY
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...STILL APPEARS MAIN CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND COULD END UP
BEING FOCUSED MORE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AS THE INVERSION
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST GETS
CLOSER. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAF AT 12Z TUESDAY. WILL START OFF
WITH VCTS AT LAF AT 18Z AND THE OTHER SITES AT 21Z. THEN...WILL PUT
PREVAILING MVFR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AFTER 02Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DID
LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL FROM MODERATE TO LIGHT THROUGH MON
18Z. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES...STILL EXPECT BEST CHANCES/DYNAMICS
AFTER TUE 00Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL TREND OF
INCREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THE COOLER MAV MOS NUMBERS OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY/S
HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12
MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
WORKING AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RATHER SLOPPY CHAOTIC CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS FALLEN APART TO THE WEST ALREADY DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WHILE THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD ENABLE VFR CEILINGS TO
EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT 1500-2000FT
CEILINGS THROUGH 17-18Z. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOING POORLY
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...STILL APPEARS MAIN CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND COULD END UP
BEING FOCUSED MORE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AS THE INVERSION
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST GETS
CLOSER. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAF AT 12Z TUESDAY. WILL START OFF
WITH VCTS AT LAF AT 18Z AND THE OTHER SITES AT 21Z. THEN...WILL PUT
PREVAILING MVFR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AFTER 02Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DID
LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL FROM MODERATE TO LIGHT THROUGH MON
18Z. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES...STILL EXPECT BEST CHANCES/DYNAMICS
AFTER TUE 00Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL TREND OF
INCREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THE COOLER MAV MOS NUMBERS OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY/S
HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12
MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
WORKING AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RATHER SLOPPY CHAOTIC CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS FALLEN APART TO THE WEST ALREADY DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WHILE THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD ENABLE VFR CEILINGS TO
EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT 1500-2000FT
CEILINGS THROUGH 17-18Z. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOING POORLY
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...STILL APPEARS MAIN CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND COULD END UP
BEING FOCUSED MORE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AS THE INVERSION
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST GETS
CLOSER. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAF AT 12Z TUESDAY. WILL START OFF
WITH VCTS AT LAF AT 18Z AND THE OTHER SITES AT 21Z. THEN...WILL PUT
PREVAILING MVFR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AFTER 02Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 011427
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1027 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DID
LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL FROM MODERATE TO LIGHT THROUGH MON
18Z. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES...STILL EXPECT BEST CHANCES/DYNAMICS
AFTER TUE 00Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL TREND OF
INCREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THE COOLER MAV MOS NUMBERS OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY/S
HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12
MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
WORKING AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

RATHER SLOPPY CHAOTIC CLOUD AND CONVECTIVE FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT
HAS FALLEN APART TO THE WEST ALREADY DRIFTING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.
WHILE THE ONSET OF LOW LEVEL MIXING SHOULD ENABLE VFR CEILINGS TO
EVENTUALLY TAKE OVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EXPECT 1500-2000FT
CEILINGS THROUGH 17-18Z. SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOING POORLY
WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...STILL APPEARS MAIN CONVECTIVE
IMPACTS TO TERMINALS HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND COULD END UP
BEING FOCUSED MORE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

THE IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AS THE INVERSION
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST GETS
CLOSER. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAF AT 12Z TUESDAY. WILL START OFF
WITH VCTS AT LAF AT 18Z AND THE OTHER SITES AT 21Z. THEN...WILL PUT
PREVAILING MVFR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AFTER 02Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 011402
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DID
LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL FROM MODERATE TO LIGHT THROUGH MON
18Z. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES...STILL EXPECT BEST CHANCES/DYNAMICS
AFTER TUE 00Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL TREND OF
INCREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THE COOLER MAV MOS NUMBERS OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY/S
HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12
MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
WORKING AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AS THE INVERSION
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST GETS
CLOSER. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAF AT 12Z TUESDAY. WILL START OFF
WITH VCTS AT LAF AT 18Z AND THE OTHER SITES AT 21Z. THEN...WILL PUT
PREVAILING MVFR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AFTER 02Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 011402
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 946 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATE...
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN VICINITY OF FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DID
LOWER INTENSITY OF RAINFALL FROM MODERATE TO LIGHT THROUGH MON
18Z. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES...STILL EXPECT BEST CHANCES/DYNAMICS
AFTER TUE 00Z. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL TREND OF
INCREASING POPS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY. THE COOLER MAV MOS NUMBERS OF LOW TO MID 80S FOR TODAY/S
HIGHS STILL LOOK REASONABLE. CURRENTLY...TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12
MPH...GUSTING TO 20 MPH. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT
REACHES HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING.
WORKING AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AS THE INVERSION
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST GETS
CLOSER. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAF AT 12Z TUESDAY. WILL START OFF
WITH VCTS AT LAF AT 18Z AND THE OTHER SITES AT 21Z. THEN...WILL PUT
PREVAILING MVFR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AFTER 02Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011149
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW HOURS OF FUELING/ALTERNATE IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH END IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH STRONGLY
MIXED/MOIST NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER. KIWX VWP SHOWING 25 KTS
OFF FIRST GATE. GREATER MIXED DEPTH BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
AFTERNOON PORTENDS TO HIR SSWLY GUSTS. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN IL/NWRN IN AS AIRMASS REACHES NEAR PEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACH OF MESOVORT...PRESENTLY OVER NERN MO.
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD TO KFWA TOWARD SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ASSOCIATED NEAR
COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVE SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY MENTION VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN LATTER
PORTION OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011149
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW HOURS OF FUELING/ALTERNATE IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH END IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH STRONGLY
MIXED/MOIST NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER. KIWX VWP SHOWING 25 KTS
OFF FIRST GATE. GREATER MIXED DEPTH BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
AFTERNOON PORTENDS TO HIR SSWLY GUSTS. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN IL/NWRN IN AS AIRMASS REACHES NEAR PEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACH OF MESOVORT...PRESENTLY OVER NERN MO.
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD TO KFWA TOWARD SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ASSOCIATED NEAR
COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVE SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY MENTION VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN LATTER
PORTION OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 011149
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW HOURS OF FUELING/ALTERNATE IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH END IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH STRONGLY
MIXED/MOIST NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER. KIWX VWP SHOWING 25 KTS
OFF FIRST GATE. GREATER MIXED DEPTH BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
AFTERNOON PORTENDS TO HIR SSWLY GUSTS. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN IL/NWRN IN AS AIRMASS REACHES NEAR PEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACH OF MESOVORT...PRESENTLY OVER NERN MO.
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD TO KFWA TOWARD SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ASSOCIATED NEAR
COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVE SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY MENTION VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN LATTER
PORTION OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIWX 011149
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
749 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW HOURS OF FUELING/ALTERNATE IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING WITH HIGH END IFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH STRONGLY
MIXED/MOIST NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER. KIWX VWP SHOWING 25 KTS
OFF FIRST GATE. GREATER MIXED DEPTH BY LATE MORNING AND INTO
AFTERNOON PORTENDS TO HIR SSWLY GUSTS. ANTICIPATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NERN IL/NWRN IN AS AIRMASS REACHES NEAR PEAK
DESTABILIZATION AND APPROACH OF MESOVORT...PRESENTLY OVER NERN MO.
CONVECTION SPREADING EWD TO KFWA TOWARD SUNSET. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF CONVECTION LIKELY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ASSOCIATED NEAR
COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVE SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY MENTION VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN LATTER
PORTION OF TAF PERIOD AND TEMPORAL/SPATIAL UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA








000
FXUS63 KIND 011033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA INTO KANSAS LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING WITH NORTHERN END MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN END MOVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING. WORKING
AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AS THE INVERSION
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST GETS
CLOSER. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAF AT 12Z TUESDAY. WILL START OFF
WITH VCTS AT LAF AT 18Z AND THE OTHER SITES AT 21Z. THEN...WILL PUT
PREVAILING MVFR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AFTER 02Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 011033
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
633 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA INTO KANSAS LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING WITH NORTHERN END MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN END MOVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING. WORKING
AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 011200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 633 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE IFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z AS THE INVERSION
BURNS OFF. OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER
18Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST GETS
CLOSER. THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR LAF AT 12Z TUESDAY. WILL START OFF
WITH VCTS AT LAF AT 18Z AND THE OTHER SITES AT 21Z. THEN...WILL PUT
PREVAILING MVFR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AFTER 02Z.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20
KNOTS AFTER 15Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 010844
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
444 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIWX 010844
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
444 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 010844
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
444 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 010844
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
444 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING
BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FEW ISOLD SHRA LIFTING NNEWD WITHIN DEEP LAYER WAA INTO SRN CWA
FOR PRE DAYBREAK MENTION. OTHERWISE FOCUS ALL ONTO UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IA CROSSING INTO NWRN IL ATTM.
DOWNSTREAM CONVECTIVE MAINTENANCE PARAMETERS APPEAR POOR...WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL JET FORCING LIFTING NWD THROUGH LONGWAVE TROF INTO
FAR NORTHWEST GREAT LAKES BY MID/LATE AM...WITH NWRN GREAT LAKES
CONVECTION PREFERRED COINCIDENT WITH BETTER KINEMATICS COLLOCATED
WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALL CENTROID. WELL DEVELOPED COMPOSITE OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH OZARKS/ERN KS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ESEWD
PROGRESSION AND LIKELY DECAY AS WELL AS IT IMPINGES ONTO HIR
LEADING EDGE MLCIN. THIS CONVECTIVE SPLIT WILL RENDER A
LESSENED/VEERED 8H FLOW ACROSS IA/MO/IL REGION THROUGH LATE
AM...WITH ANTICIPATED RAPID CONVECTIVE DECAY AS REMAINING
CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS 150-250 J/KG MLCIN ROOTED FROM NERN IL TO
ECNTL MO. WHILE DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO INITIALLY PROVIDE
SOME RESTRAINT OF DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION...BY LATE AFTERNOON
EVEN CONSERVATIVELY MODIFIED LOWER 80S/71F YIELD 2500-3000 J/KG
SBCAPES. DESTABILIZATION COINCIDENT WITH RAMPING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL JETLET OVER MID MS VLY NOSING INTO
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WITH BOTH LEESIDE LAKE MICHIGAN
CONVERGENCE WITHIN LOWEST 100 MB AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HEIGHT
FALLS STILL PROVIDING 20-40M/12 HR FALLS INTO SW LWR MICHIGAN...OR
/AND MORE PROBABLE/ THE EJECTION OF NORTHERN MO MESOVORT SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NWRN CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
GIVEN MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES HAVE KEPT POPS RESTRAINED...THOUGH
OPT FOR COVERAGE WORDING NW IN 21-24 UTC TIMEFRAME. WILL COVER
WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL WITHIN HWO FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS
CONVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD ENHANCEMENT ANTICIPATED AS UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK RAMPS TO 120 KTS AS IT LIFTS FROM SRN WI TO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...LEAVING CWA WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. GRADUAL
DEEPENING OF LONGWAVE TROF AS IT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA BY 12 UTC TUE TO FAVORS PERSISTENT UPDRAFT
GENERATION. HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCIES WITH NEARLY 2.0 INCHES PWAT
LAID OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AMID DEEP 12-13KFT WARM CLOUD LAYER
AND PERIOD OF LOW AOB 5 KTS MESOBETA ELEMENT VELOCITIES...HERE
AGAIN PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...LENDS CONTINUE HWO MENTION
OF POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT HEAVY RAFL RATES/LOCALIZED FLOODING POTNL.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA WILL RESULT
IN A DRYING TREND ON TUESDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS SLOW TO SCOUR OUT
SOUTHEAST. FAIR/SEASONABLE WX WILL THEN PERIST INTO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW. AN OPEN/POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES/NORTH-CENTRAL US
THURSDAY...AND INTO ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT PER
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THETA-E/WARM FRONT SURGE IN RESPONSE TO
ATTENDANT CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST SFC TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BRINGS CONVECTIVE CHANCES INTO QUESTION BY LATER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUED TO FAVOR THE DRIER ECMWF/GEM
OUTPUT AS MORE PRONOUNCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTHWEST
OF THE FA ON NOSE OF LLJ. CAPPED WARM SECTOR LIKELY BECOMES
FIRMLY ESTABLISHED LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. 850MB
TEMPS INCREASING TO 20-21C IN STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
HINT AT POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO MAKE A RUN AT 90F THURSDAY...WITH
THIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRIS TRENDS.

BETTER SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
WEAK MID LVL FORCING/LAPSE RATES WELL REMOVED FROM PRIMARY
SHORTWAVE/SFC REFLECTION TRACK EAST THROUGH THE NRN
LAKES/ONTARIO...AND SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE...SUGGEST 30-40 TYPE POPS THE WAY TO GO AT THIS FCST
RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IF CONVECTION
FIRES GIVEN HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT/POOLING AS BOUNDARY LAYS OUT
MORE W-E ON SRN FRINGE OF HEIGHT FALLS. THE RISK FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW FRIDAY AFTN-EVE AS STRONGER MID LEVEL
FLOW LIKELY LAGS BEHIND FRONT. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN WAKE OF FRONT SHOULD ENSURE A
NOTEWORTHY COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...MURPHY
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA









000
FXUS63 KIND 010827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA INTO KANSAS LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING WITH NORTHERN END MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN END MOVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING. WORKING
AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALONG WITH SATELLITE AND MOS SUGGEST IFR OR
WORSE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SO...WILL ADD A
TEMPO LIFR GROUP AND TONE DOWN ON THE FOG WITH SOUTH WINDS REMAINING
6 KNOTS OR MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 010827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA INTO KANSAS LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING WITH NORTHERN END MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN END MOVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING. WORKING
AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALONG WITH SATELLITE AND MOS SUGGEST IFR OR
WORSE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SO...WILL ADD A
TEMPO LIFR GROUP AND TONE DOWN ON THE FOG WITH SOUTH WINDS REMAINING
6 KNOTS OR MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 010827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA INTO KANSAS LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING WITH NORTHERN END MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN END MOVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING. WORKING
AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALONG WITH SATELLITE AND MOS SUGGEST IFR OR
WORSE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SO...WILL ADD A
TEMPO LIFR GROUP AND TONE DOWN ON THE FOG WITH SOUTH WINDS REMAINING
6 KNOTS OR MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 010827
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA INTO KANSAS LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING WITH NORTHERN END MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN END MOVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING. WORKING
AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 427 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ALONG WITH SATELLITE AND MOS SUGGEST IFR OR
WORSE CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SO...WILL ADD A
TEMPO LIFR GROUP AND TONE DOWN ON THE FOG WITH SOUTH WINDS REMAINING
6 KNOTS OR MORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 010736
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK
WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
GIVE WAY TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE NUMBERS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA INTO KANSAS LOOKS TO BE SPLITTING WITH NORTHERN END MOVING
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN END MOVING MORE SOUTH THAN EAST. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THESE STORMS HAS MOVED EAST INTO EASTERN MISSOURI AND
WESTERN ILLINOIS.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING. EXPECT BULK OF RAIN TO HAVE DRIED UP BY THE TIME IT REACHES
HERE...BUT THE OLD OUTFLOW WILL MOVE IN THIS MORNING. WORKING
AGAINST NEW CONVECTION EARLY TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER
FROM THE DYING STORMS.

FOR NOW HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING SHOWERS FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FOR ANY
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BEGIN THEIR APPROACH.
WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY THOUGH AS BEST FORCING DOES NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 00Z.

WILL GO CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY AS CLOUD COVER
SHOULD SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CLIMB TODAY. THIS HEATING WILL BUILD
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR PERHAPS SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT A BLEND WAS USED.

TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA. 850MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40KT
RANGE BY 06Z...AND CENTRAL INDIANA GETS PLACED INTO THE RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN THE AREA
WILL COMBINE WITH THE FORCING PROVIDED BY THESE FEATURES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS AROUND 06Z AS FORCING LOOKS TO PEAK IN THAT TIME FRAME. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
DURING THE EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES WILL
ALSO LEAD TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

INTERESTINGLY...THE 00Z NCEP WRF-NMM AND 00Z NSSL WRF ARE MUCH LESS
BULLISH WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT...WITH FORECAST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION AT 06Z TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
FORCING AND ENSEMBLES OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WILL IGNORE THESE OUTLIERS FOR NOW.

FORCING WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA /CHANCE NORTH/. POPS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT EXITS.

WENT DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH. THE OLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT AT THE MOMENT BELIEVE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF RAIN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR LOWS. FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN AROUND
DURING THE MORNING. ON WEDNESDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL FEATURE A WARM AND HUMID START WITH EARLY
WEEKEND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND FINALLY A DRY AND COOL LATE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS AROUND ON
THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO SATURDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER TO LEAVE POPS OUT.

PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL ARRIVE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MODEL 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES DROPPING
FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS ON THURSDAY TO 10 DEGREES OR LESS BY
SUNDAY. AS SUCH...REGIONAL BLEND LOOKS IN THE BALLPARK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IN THE 70S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIWX 010556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA













000
FXUS63 KIWX 010556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA













000
FXUS63 KIWX 010556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA













000
FXUS63 KIWX 010556
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
156 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 151 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S...WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MIDDLE
80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

INCREASED OPTIMISM WITH RESPECT TO EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MUCH LESS DURATION GIVEN CURRENT TAMDAR/NAM12 POINT
SOUNDINGS WITH ONLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LIKELY AND MUCH
CLOSER TO SUNUP. ADDITIONALLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
SUPPORT MORE HIGHLY ELEVATED DECK WITHIN ELEVATED/MOIST INVERSION
LAYER. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE BRIEF MENTION OF FUEL ALT CONDITIONS AT
KFWA PER PROGGED SOUNDINGS. UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY PROVIDE
A BRIEF LATE AM/MIDDAY SHRA INVOF KSBN...THOUGH COVERAGE/PROB OF
OCCURRENCE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT ONLY VCSH MENTION GIVEN LITTLE
AVIATION IMPACT. FOCUS LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD SHIFTS TO
RENEWAL OF CONVECTION FOCUS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
PROVIDED TEMPO GROUP WITHIN BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SEEN AT
PRESENT.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MURPHY
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...MURPHY


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA













000
FXUS63 KIND 010438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIND 010438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 010438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 010438
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1238 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KTS EXPECT TO SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A STEEP INVERSION DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS THAT ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG
AT ALL THE OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE VCTS TO INDICATE THIS POTENTIAL. AS EVENT
GETS CLOSER HOPE TO PIN DOWN PLACEMENT AND TIMING BETTER TO USE
EXPLICIT THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 010229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 010229
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 010150
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 010150
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 950 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ALL SHOWERS HAVE JUST ABOUT DISSIPATED...EXCEPT FOR ONE SHOWER JUST
WEST OF WARREN COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS REST OF TONIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE PATCHY FOG AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT...CUT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 312312
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY AROUND 70F.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING...TO THE POINT OF SATURATION. STILL THINK LOW
STRATUS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS GRADIENT WIND DOES NOT GO
COMPLETELY CALM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE DO NOT SHOW A
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR IFR STRATUS THOUGH. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT OF
IFR CONDITIONS IS LOW. WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. GIVEN EXPECTED LATE DAY TIMING...WILL HOLD
OFF ON INCLUSION IN THE TAF FOR THIS CYCLE.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...AGD


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000
FXUS63 KIND 312301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 312301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 312301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 312301
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
701 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 010000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 649 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SITES WILL START OUT VFR BUT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND WINDS
DECREASING TO ABOUT 3-5 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT TO SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STEEP INVERSION
DEVELOPING AT KLAF AND KHUF AND DIPPING PAST CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. KIND AND KBMG SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSIONS THAT
ARE NOT AS STEEP. WILL GO WITH A PERIOD OF IFR FOG AT ALL THE
OUTLYING SITES WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS AT KLAF AND KHUF.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE
REGULAR TAF PERIOD BUT COULD ARRIVE AT KIND BEFORE THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION. MAY INCLUDE A VCTS THEN TO START PROVIDING AN
INDICATION OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 312027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.


&&


.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.



&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 312100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 312027
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
426 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.


&&


.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT
TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.



&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 312100Z KIND TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 426 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO KIND TAF TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NO OTHER CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN/JH

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 312000
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.


&&


.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBLTE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.



&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








000
FXUS63 KIND 312000
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM
AND LONG TERM SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERAL DIFFERENT DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FIRST...ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON TOMORROW THOUGH AS
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT BRING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
IN THE EXTENDED...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A WARM FRONT ENTERS CENTRAL INDIANA. FURTHER OUT...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY.


&&


.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE PERSISTING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
NIGHT...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.

PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM WITH READINGS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE NAM IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE GFS...SO A
BLEND OF THE 2 MODELS SEEMED BEST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW.

SPC HAS MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON DAY 2 AS AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA JUST
AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE BEST DYNAMICS WITH THIS SETUP
WILL BE OVER WISCONSIN...WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE STRONGEST.
HOWEVER...A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS SOARING INTO THE LOW 70S BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL BE AS HIGH AS 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 30 TO 50 KTS.

CONVECTION WILL INITIATE AROUND LATE AFTERNOON TOMORROW OVER THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES...PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA
DURING THE TUE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
GO WITH DEFINITE POPS OVER THE AREA AT TIMES.

ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND A VERY SUBLTE SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS ON
WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER A FEW HOT DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODEL
BLEND HANDLED THIS BEST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WARM AND HUMID WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL
TRANSITION TO COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT BY LATE WEEKEND.

BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO
VALLEY TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW
EXISTS WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETROGRADING WEST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR LATE WEEK. SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST FOR THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT
OTHERWISE...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MAKE ITS REAPPEARANCE
FOR LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS NEAR 90.

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO
BY FRIDAY...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES. THE FRONT IS POISED TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH...AND WILL
PROVIDE THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED. THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AS LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES IN ITS WAKE.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A DRIER AND COOLER SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY QUITE POSSIBLY HOLDING IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION BRINGING 850MB TEMPS BELOW 10C.



&&


.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TDUD
NEAR TERM...TDUD
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM....RYAN
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIWX 311941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS FINALLY BREAKING UP EARLY THIS AFTN W/RECENT UPTICK
IN LL MIXING AND XPC THIS TREND WILL CONT THROUGH LT AFTN. AN
ISOLD SHRA INBTWN THE TERMINALS REMAINS PSBL YET THIS AFTN WITHIN
WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE BUT TAF MENTION OMITTED FROM THE TERMINALS FOR
18Z ISSUANCE. PRIMARY PROB LIES W/LIKELY RENEWED STRATUS/FOG
REDVLPMNT OVERNIGHT W/PERSISTENT SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER
GENERALLY WK GRADIENT FLW AND AT LEAST EARLY CLRG MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AFT MIDNIGHT LIKELY YET BELIEVE MORE SIG ISSUE WILL
BE IFR CIGS DVLPMNT AS STRATUS REFORMS. REGARDLESS THIS WILL BURN
OFF/MIX OUT MON MORNING AS LLJ FLW RAMPS SIGLY AHD OF SW TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311941
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
341 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH SHALLOW POST FNTL INVERSION WAS SLW
TO BREAKUP THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WELL UNDERWAY NOW W/CONCURRENT
UPTICK IN POST FNTL MIXING. SUFFICIENT AFTN DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN CONTD WEAKLY CONFLUENT SFC FLW TO YIELD A FEW
ISOLD SHRA ACRS THE CWA AND WILL RIDE A LOW CHC POP MENTION
THROUGH THIS AFTN TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. OTRWS CONTD WK BUT MOIST
SWRLY FLW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BFR STRENGTHENING
ON MON AHD OF NXT POTENT UPSTREAM SW EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES. CLRG COMBINED W/WK GRADIENT FLW PORTENDS A LIKELY
REDVLPMNT OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS SOME FOG AFT MIDNIGHT YET
BELIEVE SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASING HIGH CLDS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CURTAIL DENSE FOG DVLPMNT.

UPSTREAM ROCKIES SW EJECTS OUT IN SIMILAR FASHION TO LAST TWO
SYS/S...UP THROUGH THE NRN LAKES MON AFTN W/TRAILING SFC TROUGH
STALLING OUT AGAIN DOWN NEAR THE OH RVR ON TUE. SYNOPTIC PATTN
REMAINS PERSISTENT W/A MOIST AND POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCKED
IN ACRS THE SRN LAKES/OH VALLEY COUNTERED BY POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES AND GENERALLY POOR PREFNTL BASED FORCING AS LARGER SCALE HGT
FALLS SHIFT WELL NW OF AREA. THUS BELIEVE POPS ON MON ARE OVERDONE
ESP IN LIGHT OF NEW 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON PRIOR TWO
GENERALLY MISHANDLED SYSTEMS HAVE CUT THINGS BACK ESP SE THIRD.
RENEWED DEEP MIXING AND AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION SHLD YIELD CLOSE
TO GOING FCST MAX TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS LIES WITH ONGOING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT.

SFC COLD FRONT FROM ATTENDANT NRN ONTARIO SFC CYCLONE PROGGED TO BE
JUST WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ONGOING CONVECTION LIKELY AFTER
00Z ACROSS THE AREA...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES E/SE THROUGH THE
AREA. POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT AS HIGHLIGHTED BY SPC DY2 OUTLOOK INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...GIVEN 1500-2000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35-40 KTS OF 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR...MAY BE IN THE LINEAR FROM ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. AT THIS
POINT...SEVERE POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA...DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD YIELD A WANING
SEVERE THREAT HEADING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AFTER 03Z. AS SFC
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA...BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOW
AND ORIENT WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS BROAD NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...PWAT
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES...WARM CLOUD LAYER GREATER THAN
11KFT...MODEST MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG W/ LONG AND
SKINNY CAPE SOUNDING PROFILE...SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILE ORIENTED SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...SMALL SPEED
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB...ALONG WITH REGION UNDER THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES UPPER JET...SHOULD ALLOW THE
FOCUS OF TRAINING CONVECTION ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BE ENHANCED IF LOW LEVEL JET KICKS UP INTO THE
AREA...HOWEVER FOCUS OF THE JET WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. CONTEMPLATED ADDING HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION INTO
FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTIES WILL
THE POSITION OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL PRECLUDE MENTION AT THIS
TIME...AS FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IF 00Z-06Z CONVECTION REINFORCES A
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
CATEGORY MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES AND CONVECTIVE NATURE OF
THE PRECIPITATION.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS UPPER EASTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS AND SFC RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR TO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ZONAL AS NORTHERN TIER SHORTWAVE/ATTENDANT SFC CYCLONE
PUSHES A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS PROVIDED BY ALLBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS FINALLY BREAKING UP EARLY THIS AFTN W/RECENT UPTICK
IN LL MIXING AND XPC THIS TREND WILL CONT THROUGH LT AFTN. AN
ISOLD SHRA INBTWN THE TERMINALS REMAINS PSBL YET THIS AFTN WITHIN
WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE BUT TAF MENTION OMITTED FROM THE TERMINALS FOR
18Z ISSUANCE. PRIMARY PROB LIES W/LIKELY RENEWED STRATUS/FOG
REDVLPMNT OVERNIGHT W/PERSISTENT SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER
GENERALLY WK GRADIENT FLW AND AT LEAST EARLY CLRG MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AFT MIDNIGHT LIKELY YET BELIEVE MORE SIG ISSUE WILL
BE IFR CIGS DVLPMNT AS STRATUS REFORMS. REGARDLESS THIS WILL BURN
OFF/MIX OUT MON MORNING AS LLJ FLW RAMPS SIGLY AHD OF SW TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...NG
AVIATION...T


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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS FINALLY BREAKING UP EARLY THIS AFTN W/RECENT UPTICK
IN LL MIXING AND XPC THIS TREND WILL CONT THROUGH LT AFTN. AN
ISOLD SHRA INBTWN THE TERMINALS REMAINS PSBL YET THIS AFTN WITHIN
WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE BUT TAF MENTION OMITTED FROM THE TERMINALS FOR
18Z ISSUANCE. PRIMARY PROB LIES W/LIKELY RENEWED STRATUS/FOG
REDVLPMNT OVERNIGHT W/PERSISTENT SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER
GENERALLY WK GRADIENT FLW AND AT LEAST EARLY CLRG MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AFT MIDNIGHT LIKELY YET BELIEVE MORE SIG ISSUE WILL
BE IFR CIGS DVLPMNT AS STRATUS REFORMS. REGARDLESS THIS WILL BURN
OFF/MIX OUT MON MORNING AS LLJ FLW RAMPS SIGLY AHD OF SW TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311755
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PESKY STRATUS FINALLY BREAKING UP EARLY THIS AFTN W/RECENT UPTICK
IN LL MIXING AND XPC THIS TREND WILL CONT THROUGH LT AFTN. AN
ISOLD SHRA INBTWN THE TERMINALS REMAINS PSBL YET THIS AFTN WITHIN
WEAK SFC CONFLUENCE BUT TAF MENTION OMITTED FROM THE TERMINALS FOR
18Z ISSUANCE. PRIMARY PROB LIES W/LIKELY RENEWED STRATUS/FOG
REDVLPMNT OVERNIGHT W/PERSISTENT SOUPY AIRMASS IN PLACE. PER
GENERALLY WK GRADIENT FLW AND AT LEAST EARLY CLRG MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AFT MIDNIGHT LIKELY YET BELIEVE MORE SIG ISSUE WILL
BE IFR CIGS DVLPMNT AS STRATUS REFORMS. REGARDLESS THIS WILL BURN
OFF/MIX OUT MON MORNING AS LLJ FLW RAMPS SIGLY AHD OF SW TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE PLAINS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...T


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000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 311710
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR AND LOWER CEILINGS LIKELY TO PLAGUE THE TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

DRIER AIR STRUGGLING TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART TO THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 2KFT CONTINUE ALTHOUGH STARTING TO
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK. WEAK MID LEVEL VORT CONTRIBUTING TO
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AS WELL...WHICH MAY PERSIST AT
KBMG AND KIND FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EVENTUALLY THOUGH...EXPECT
CEILINGS TO LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD INTO THE
EVENING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

ANY SCATTERING OF THE DECK WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND LOW LEVEL RH PROGS BOTH HIGHLIGHT A REDEVELOPMENT OF
LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG AS WELL OVERNIGHT WITH MOISTURE
BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SHALLOW INVERSION. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT MORE QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL MIXING
COMMENCES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER 850MB JET INTO CENTRAL
INDIANA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
LOW 20S BY MIDDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 311452
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1052 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 311452
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1052 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CEO
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA






000
FXUS63 KIND 311425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IMPACTING KBMG AND KIND WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 14Z. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO
CONTINUE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS...
WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 311425
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311500Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE IMPACTING KBMG AND KIND WITH IFR
CEILINGS AND LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS AS OF 14Z. EXPECT LOW STRATUS TO
CONTINUE WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING SATURATED LOWER LEVELS...
WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BUILDS IN.

12Z DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK/RYAN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 311418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 311418
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1018 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATE...
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...RAIN HAS BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS
A RESULT...REDUCED POPS EVEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST...STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS TO TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. CURRENTLY...
TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 70S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50/TDUD
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 311051
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIND 311051
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 311200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A PAIR OF UPPER WAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IFR OR PERHAPS CEILINGS THROUGH 16Z ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
THEN...AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES...COULD SEE A FEW MORE
AFTERNOON STORMS EXCEPT CHANCES TOO LOW AT LAF. WILL GO WITH VCSH
AND THEN VCTS AFTER 16Z. THEN...MORE MVFR OR WORSE CEILINGS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS TODAY AND SOUTH 6 KNOTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
537 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
537 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
537 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 310937
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
537 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 536 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC TROUGH
WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS ALONG THIS SFC TROUGH SHOULD SINK SOUTH OF KFWA BY TAF
ISSUANCE LEAVING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 310850
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
449 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA










000
FXUS63 KIWX 310846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWS 80
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310846
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
446 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 24 IN INDIANA AND OHIO THIS MORNING
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY
INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWS 80
TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK TRAILING SFC TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM POTENT MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION TRANSLATING EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL
SINK SLOWLY SE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY.
ISO-SCT SHOWERS/THUNDER MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEAK
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUILDING INSTABILITY (850 MB DEWPOINTS TO 13-14C AND PWATS
1.7-1.8 INCHES)...AND WEAK DEFORMATION TIED TO AN APPROACHING MID MS
VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. PRONOUNCED MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN WAKE OF
THE NRN LAKES WAVE SHOULD KEEP NORTHWEST ZONES DRY THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SKIES EVENTUALLY TRENDING PARTLY CLOUDY. ANTICIPATE STUBBORN
BKN-OVC STRATOCUMULUS TO REMAIN LOCKED IN ELSEWHERE...WITH MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, DECAYING PRES GRADIENT NEAR SFC TROUGH, AND SOME
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLY SUPPORTING SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO NW IN/SW LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WORKING EAST THROUGH THE
LOWER LAKES SHOULD ENSURE A DRY NIGHT OUTSIDE OF NONZERO CHC FOR AN
ISO SHOWER EARLY EVENING EASTERN HALF. OTHERWISE...PATTERN FAVORS
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST
BL UNDER SUBSIDENCE/NOCTURNAL INVERSION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY FOCUS ON MONDAY HOLIDAY. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
EASTWARD THROUGH INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT THIS TIME...ENTERING UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ANTICIPATE ANY ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY TO DECAY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES IN AM HOURS...AND PROVIDED SOME GREATER
TIME/SPACE DETAILS WITH RESPECT TO POP/WX...WITH EARLIEST
POTENTIAL/LOW PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION NOT UNTIL
MIDDAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING THROUGH WARM
SECTOR TO YIELD MODERATE 2500-3500 J/KG SBCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA. SYNCHRONICITY OF MAX DESTABILIZATION WITH
ROBUST 50-60KT 7-6H JET SEGMENT PUSHING EWD THROUGH NORTHERN IL/SRN
WI INTO NWRN CWA LENDS CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SEVERE EVENT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON ORDER OF 35-40 KTS WITH
DECENT LOW LEVEL VEERING COULD LEND SOME PREFRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR
ORGANIZATION WITH ASSOCIATED WIND/HAIL THREAT.....WITH NOTABLE
600-850 J/KG PER NAM IN HAIL GROWTH REGION...DESPITE FAIRLY HIGH
WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 13-13.5 KFT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE WIND
CONCERN TIED TO LINEAR/FRONTAL FOCUSED CONVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF FRONTAL WAVE FROM CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD ECNTL MO/CNTL IL. CWA COLLOCATED WITH DIVERGENT
QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET SEGMENT RAMPING TO 120 KTS FROM CNTL
LAKE MI TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON. HIGHEST PRECIP EFFICIENCY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST HALF OF CWA...THOUGH LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY LATE
DAY2/EARLY DAY 3 MESOSCALE DETAILS PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN
GENERALIZED MENTION IN HWO ATTM. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOWLY LIE
SOUTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY WITH SLOW SCOUR OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TUESDAY WARRANTS LINGERING MENTION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST CWA
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER MIDWEEK WITH
MODERATION THEREAFTER. FAVOR DRY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY WARM
FRONTAL FOCUS WELL S-W OF CWA. SLOWED MOISTURE RETURN SLIGHTLY OVER
EAGER CONSENSUS BLEND WITH CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED THU ACROSS
CWA. THEREAFTER CIRCUITOUS GOMEX FEED AND ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING ESEWD FROM UPPER MIDWEST INTO GREAT LAKES...THEN STALLING
E-W THROUGH SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...HAVE LOW CHC/LONG DURATION TSRA
MENTION THU NIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MURPHY
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
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000
FXUS63 KIND 310840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TAF LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 310840
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
424 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310900Z IND TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TAF LOOKS GOOD...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP/MK

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 310722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 310722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 310722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 310722
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...THE SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...AND SHORT TERM SECTIONS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL RETURN FOR LABOR DAY AND
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
AREA. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MORE FRONTS MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FORCING TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST.

BY 12Z EXPECT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA WHERE MORE FORCING WILL BE. WILL GO LIKELY POPS FAR
SOUTHEAST. HI RES RAPID REFRESH STILL SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS MORNING SO WILL KEEP CHANCE
CATEGORY POPS ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WILL GRADUALLY LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

MOS LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS WITH SOME
DECREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM IS NOT DOING
WELL WITH TODAY/S PRECIPITATION SO DIDN/T REALLY TRUST IT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. USED A BLEND OF OTHER MODELS.

WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
LINGERING RAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM.

ON MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BUT KEPT THEM IN CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW AS
BEST FORCING DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY NIGHT 850MB WINDS WILL HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40KT...AND THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF AN 100KT UPPER JET. THIS
FORCING COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LIKELY POPS
MOST AREAS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN ON TUESDAY BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
FORCING WILL DIMINISH. WILL GO LIKELY POPS EARLY ACROSS THE EAST
WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. POPS WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN IN CHANCE
CATEGORY.

KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING RAIN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND THEN DRY OVERNIGHT.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER OF THE MOS HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH RAIN NOT
ARRIVING UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY. MAV LOOKS TOO WARM ON TUESDAY WITH
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SO CUT IT AS NEEDED. FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD STUCK WITH A BLEND.

&&


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS







000
FXUS63 KIND 310655
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

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000
FXUS63 KIND 310655
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON POPS AND
TEMPERATURES.

THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES THE TREND OF SIDING BETTER WITH
THE ENSEMBLE BLEND COMPARED TO THE GFS WITH THE 00Z EURO FASTER TO
BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...EXTENDED MODELS AGREE ON EXPANDING UPPER SOUTHERN RIDGE
TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
DYING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WOULD NOT RULE OUT A A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE
AREA...WILL GO WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEN...WILL BE BRINGING POPS BACK BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE WEEKEND
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. BEST CHANCES LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID MID TO LATE WEEK WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COULD REACH THE LOWER 90S SOUTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 PER REGIONAL BLEND. THEN...THE
COLD FRONT WILL START TO BRING NOT AS WARM AND DRIER AIR IN LATE IN
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....MK
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS













000
FXUS63 KIWX 310451
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWS 80 TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TRIGGERED WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED
EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROF IN WISCONSIN. FLOW REGIME IS SUCH
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW THE SFC BASED FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
AXIS...

LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES AND INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES NOT PERSIST MUCH PAST 04Z.

LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY SIMILAR AND DO SUPPORT PERSISTENT/LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAP AND A LONG FETCH OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES AND THE TROF/DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BUT STRONG PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS AND CVA WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
EASILY ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2-3 KJ/KG RANGE AS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID...OR PERHAPS UPPER...80S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VERY DYNAMIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LATEST 12Z NWP SUITE KEEPS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER WIND PROFILES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS...WILL ALSO BE
TIED CLOSER TO THE FRONT. DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM ARE ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT....PLENTY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS...AND POTENTIAL
ROTATION...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP BUT
LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS BUT ALSO INCREASED THEM A
BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IF SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND. SCT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUES AND WED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 310451
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWS 80 TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TRIGGERED WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED
EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROF IN WISCONSIN. FLOW REGIME IS SUCH
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW THE SFC BASED FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
AXIS...

LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES AND INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES NOT PERSIST MUCH PAST 04Z.

LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY SIMILAR AND DO SUPPORT PERSISTENT/LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAP AND A LONG FETCH OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES AND THE TROF/DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BUT STRONG PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS AND CVA WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
EASILY ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2-3 KJ/KG RANGE AS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID...OR PERHAPS UPPER...80S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VERY DYNAMIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LATEST 12Z NWP SUITE KEEPS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER WIND PROFILES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS...WILL ALSO BE
TIED CLOSER TO THE FRONT. DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM ARE ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT....PLENTY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS...AND POTENTIAL
ROTATION...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP BUT
LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS BUT ALSO INCREASED THEM A
BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IF SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND. SCT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUES AND WED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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000
FXUS63 KIWX 310451
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWS 80 TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TRIGGERED WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED
EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROF IN WISCONSIN. FLOW REGIME IS SUCH
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW THE SFC BASED FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
AXIS...

LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES AND INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES NOT PERSIST MUCH PAST 04Z.

LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY SIMILAR AND DO SUPPORT PERSISTENT/LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAP AND A LONG FETCH OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES AND THE TROF/DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BUT STRONG PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS AND CVA WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
EASILY ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2-3 KJ/KG RANGE AS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID...OR PERHAPS UPPER...80S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VERY DYNAMIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LATEST 12Z NWP SUITE KEEPS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER WIND PROFILES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS...WILL ALSO BE
TIED CLOSER TO THE FRONT. DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM ARE ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT....PLENTY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS...AND POTENTIAL
ROTATION...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP BUT
LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS BUT ALSO INCREASED THEM A
BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IF SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND. SCT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUES AND WED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIWX 310451
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1251 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM
THE WEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWS 80 TODAY AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS TRIGGERED WHERE THE CLOUDS CLEARED
EARLIER TODAY...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN AND INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROF IN WISCONSIN. FLOW REGIME IS SUCH
THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN A STRETCHING DEFORMATION
AXIS. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF SHOW THE SFC BASED FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS
AXIS...

LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE
LINES AND INDIVIDUAL LINE SEGMENTS. ISOLATED THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING DOES NOT PERSIST MUCH PAST 04Z.

LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN MORE ORGANIZED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE IS DISCREPANCY IN TIMING AND INTENSITY
BETWEEN THE MODELS...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE AND WIND PROFILES ARE
VERY SIMILAR AND DO SUPPORT PERSISTENT/LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE TAP AND A LONG FETCH OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT...SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES AND THE TROF/DEFORMATION AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD...EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYNOPTIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS OF LONG TERM IS ON PRECIP/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES LATE MONDAY. TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BUT STRONG PUSH OF HEIGHT FALLS AND CVA WILL SUPPORT A DECENT
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
FURTHER AIDED BY GOOD RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS OVER THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. DEEP AND STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL
EASILY ADVECT HIGH THETA-E AIRMASS BACK INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH THE 2-3 KJ/KG RANGE AS
HIGH TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID...OR PERHAPS UPPER...80S WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. VERY DYNAMIC WAVE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL TO
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES. LATEST 12Z NWP SUITE KEEPS SURFACE BOUNDARY
WEST OF OUR CWA UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. ISO/SCT CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WEAK PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST NAM12 BUT EXPECT BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
BETTER WIND PROFILES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30+ KNOTS...WILL ALSO BE
TIED CLOSER TO THE FRONT. DESPITE MORE THAN ADEQUATE
SHEAR...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM ARE ONLY WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE
OF A NOCTURNAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY MONDAY NIGHT....PLENTY
FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LESS CLEAR.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS...AND POTENTIAL
ROTATION...WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP BUT
LATE ARRIVAL OF FRONT MAY LIMIT CHANCES FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT. PUSHED BACK TIMING OF POPS BUT ALSO INCREASED THEM A
BIT BASED ON LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. COULD ALSO BE A THREAT FOR
STRONGER STORMS IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IF SURFACE BOUNDARY IS SLOW ENOUGH TO EXIT THE CWA.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED MIDWEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES NEXT
WEEKEND. SCT CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH ONCE AGAIN BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
THE WEEKEND. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK TUES AND WED...HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE INVOF OF A SFC
TROUGH WILL ALLOW CIGS TO LOWER INTO MAINLY IFR-LOW MVFR THIS
MORNING. BROKEN/POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THIS SFC
TROUGH WILL SAG SLOWLY SSE INTO THE KFWA AREA THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OPTED FOR A VCSH MENTION FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY/WEAK
FORCING. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF KSBN WITH POTENTIAL FOR
FOG/LIFR CONDITIONS TO FILL IN TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...LEWIS
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA







000
FXUS63 KIND 310422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS










000
FXUS63 KIND 310422
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310600Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1222 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND
1500 FT/ LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND UNTIL AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING UP.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS











000
FXUS63 KIND 310235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO
IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF
AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND 1500 FT/
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS COULD SEE
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 310235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO
IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF
AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND 1500 FT/
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS COULD SEE
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 310235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO
IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF
AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND 1500 FT/
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS COULD SEE
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 310235
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310300Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF KLAF COULD GET EAST ENOUGH TO
IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY VCTS THERE WITH TEMPO THUNDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF
AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS /AROUND 1500 FT/
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS COULD SEE
SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5-10
KTS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS






000
FXUS63 KIND 310153
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SITES
MOVING NORTHEAST AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SITES AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SOUTHERN SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY A BIT AS WELL AS
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD. THINK THIS COULD IMPACT KBMG AFTER 3-5Z
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER DIRECTLY IMPACTING
KBMG NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AND THUS WILL INCLUDE
VCTS THERE. THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST COULD GET EAST ENOUGH
TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH POSSIBLY AN EXPLICIT THUNDER
MENTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 6Z. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS
/AROUND 1500 FT/ STARTING AROUND 3-6Z AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL AROUND THE SAME TIME
BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS









000
FXUS63 KIND 310153
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NEAR TERM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER
WEATHER WILL RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA AND ALSO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST INDIANA.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THOSE TWO AREAS...IT HAS
BEEN QUIET SO FAR TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS MAY BRUSH OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AND WILL ALSO KEEP HIGH POPS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  AS A RESULT WILL DOWNPLAY RAIN CHANCES SOME
OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE SOME AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THUS WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
ON TRACK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES...PARTICULARLY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY INTO QUEBEC WITH WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDING INTO THE REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL BE ONGOING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
LINGERING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING ALOFT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT BEST AND FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL LINGER.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE...ANTICIPATE DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION. MONDAY MORNING WILL START OUT DRY AS WELL BEFORE
FOCUS SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP WAVE ALOFT
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY
EVENING WITH A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS AND SEVERE CONVECTION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS BL SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES ARE MORE PLENTIFUL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT WIDESPREAD
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ALL NIGHT
AND LIKELY POPS REMAIN WARRANTED. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER.

TEMPS...MAVMOS GUIDANCE LOOKED REASONABLE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS INITIALLY ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGHS DOWN A BIT IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH CONVECTIVE IMPACTS LIKELY HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...TRENDED TOWARDS WARMER MAV FOR
HIGHS. USED CONSMOS FOR LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ALL GUIDANCE WAS
SIMILAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AT THE SURFACE AND
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ALOFT.  NONETHELESS...KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  BY THURSDAY...A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES
AGAIN...AND A WARM FRONT AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EVEN FURTHER BY THURSDAY
NIGHT.  THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALSO RESULT IN A WARM UP AFTER THE COLD
FRONT EARLIER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TREND FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD....TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 310000Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SITES
MOVING NORTHEAST AND A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SITES AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET FEEDING THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THINK THIS WILL CAUSE THE
SOUTHERN SHOWERS/STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY A BIT AS WELL AS
SLOWLY EXPAND NORTHWARD. THINK THIS COULD IMPACT KBMG AFTER 3-5Z
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER DIRECTLY IMPACTING
KBMG NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR EXPLICIT MENTION AND THUS WILL INCLUDE
VCTS THERE. THE LINE OF STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST COULD GET EAST ENOUGH
TO IMPACT KLAF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO CARRY VCTS THERE WITH POSSIBLY AN EXPLICIT THUNDER
MENTION FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. AT KHUF AND KIND THINK DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 6Z. EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER CEILINGS
/AROUND 1500 FT/ STARTING AROUND 3-6Z AND WITH THE HUMID AIR MASS
COULD SEE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS WELL AROUND THE SAME TIME
BUT STILL MVFR.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SSW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD
SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RYAN
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...CP

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS








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